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Offseason In Review: Indianapolis Colts

August 23rd, 2016 at 8:53pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Many NFL observers had not only penciled in the Colts for a lengthy postseason run, but projected Andrew Luck to be among the league’s top contenders for the MVP award. Instead, Luck dealt with injuries (and wasn’t all that productive when he was on the field), and though backup Matt Hasselbeck played well at times, the offense couldn’t handle the loss of its starting quarterback, and finished 30th in DVOA. Indy’s defense was surprisingly competent (13th in DVOA), but that performance wasn’t enough to help the club finish better than 8-8, second in the AFC South.

Notable signings:

Dwayne Allen, TE: Four years, $29.4MM. $11.5MM guaranteed.
Patrick Robinson, CB: Three years, $14MM. $6MM guaranteed.
Adam Vinatieri, K: Two years, $6MM. $1MM guaranteed.
Scott Tolzien, QB: Two years, $3.5MM. $500K guaranteed.
Jordan Todman, RB: One year, minimum salary benefit. $480K guaranteed.
Antonio Cromartie, CB: One year $3MM. $250K guaranteed. $500K available via incentives.
Jack Doyle, TE: One year, $1.671MM. Signed original-round RFA tender.
Robert Turbin, RB: One year, minimum salary benefit.

The Colts and general manager Ryan Grigson have been active spenders during the last two free agent periods, as they’ve attempted to augment their roster with external additions. During the 2014-15 offseasons, Indianapolis handed out an average of $38.5MM in guaranteed money while inking veterans such as D’Qwell Jackson, Arthur Jones, Andre Johnson, Frank Gore, and Trent Cole. This year, the club took a markedly different approach, limiting their free agent spending and disbursing less than $20MM in guarantees.

The majority of that money went towards re-signing one of the Colts’ own free agents, as the club hammered out a four-year deal to retain tight end Dwayne Allen. The 26-year-old is coming off a platform season during which he was not only hampered by ankle and calf injuries, but posted only 16 receptions for just over 100 yards and one touchdown, so it’s perhaps surprising that Allen is now among the 10 highest-paid tight ends on an annual basis.

But this contract was offered with an eye towards the future, as new Indy offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski — a former tight ends coach who often features the position in his scheme — reportedly told Allen that he’d be more involved in the club’s gameplan going forward. Allen has flashed before (he put up a 45/521/3 line during his rookie campaign), and as Scott Barrett of Pro Football Focus noted at time of the signing, Allen has always graded out well as a blocker, both in the run and pass game.

The Colts’ only other notable re-signing was that of kicker Adam Vinatieri, with whom the club worked out a two-year deal. In 2015, Vinatieri connected on 25 of 27 field goal tries, for a 92.6% conversion rate. However, he did occasionally struggle with the longer extra point, missing three of 35 attempts. Still, there were few NFL kickers more reliable than Vinatieri, who is now third on the league’s list of all-time leading scorers. With 2,253 points, Vinatieri should be able to make a run at Morten Andersen (2,544) and Gary Anderson (2,434) as he plays out the final leg of his career.

On defense, Indianapolis found a cornerback who can slot in opposite Vontae Davis, as it agreed to terms with Patrick Robinson, who spent last season with the Chargers. A first-round pick of the Saints back in 2010, Robinson never broke out until heading to San Diego, as he started 10 games in 2015 and graded as the league’s No. 30 CB among 111 qualifiers, per Pro Football Focus.

Because Davis lines up primarily on the right side, Robinson will see most of his time at left corner, although he is also capable of playing in the slot. As PFF’s Nathan Jahnke tweeted earlier this year, Robinson held quarterbacks to the third-worst rating (67.7) in the league when lined up in the slot. But with Darius Butler entrenched on the inside, Robinson will likely stay on the outside most of the time, something that Grigson confirmed when the 28-year-old was signed.

Joining Robinson in the secondary will be veteran corner Antonio Cromartie, who was just signed yesterday following news that Davis will miss at least the first month of the season with an ankle injury. Cromartie, a 10-year veteran and four-time Pro Bowler, has been on the open market since the Jets released him in February. That was the end of Cromartie’s second stint with New York, which lasted only one season. Pro Football Focus ranked him just 86th out of 111 qualified cornerbacks in 2015, but he’ll now likely be counted on to start for a quarter of the season at minimum.

While Indianapolis is planning on Robinson and Cromartie providing consistent production in the defensive backfield, the club is surely hoping that Scott Tolzien doesn’t see many — if any — snaps this year as he serves as Andrew Luck‘s backup at quarterback. Luck is coming off an injury-wrecked season, but the Colts were able to stay afloat thanks in some part to the play of Matt Hasselbeck.

Tolzien, meanwhile, doesn’t have anywhere close to the level of experience that Hasselbeck did, as Tolzien has only attempted 91 passes during his career. As such, it’s fair to wonder why Indy didn’t target a more high-profile backup signal-caller. But, as former Colts offensive coordinator Tom Moore once said (in an extremely colorful way), clubs are usually finished if their starting quarterback goes down, so perhaps not investing in a No. 2 option is the smart strategy.

Indianapolis doesn’t have much depth behind Luck, and the club is also short on options behind running back Frank Gore, who is entering his age-33 season. Veteran free agent additions Jordan Todman and Robert Turbin, each of whom signed minimum salary benefit deals, both figure to make the roster and would likely share carries if Gore suffers an injury. However, 2016 undrafted free agent Josh Ferguson has been drawing rave reviews, and could leap both Todman and Turbin for playing time.

Continue reading about the Colts’ offseason…

Notable losses:

The Colts were always going to be forced to choose between tight ends Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, and according to Fleener, Indianapolis didn’t seem to struggle with their decision. “The Colts’ lack of interest and the Saints’ interest made going to New Orleans an easy choice,” Fleener told Mike Wells of ESPN.com earlier this year. Allen is probably the more complete tight end, but Fleener holds the advantage in terms of pure receiving talent, and he could be in line for a massive season catching passes from Drew Brees. Allen scored a slightly larger annual salary, but Fleener secured $3MM+ more in guaranteed money.

Indy’s passing attack will also be without veteran wide receiver Andre Johnson, who was released just one season into a three-year deal, meaning he earned $10MM+ for one campaign’s worth of work. Johnson, who has since signed with the division-rival Titans, posted the worst season of his career in 2015, struggling to create separation from defensive backs while managing only 503 receiving yards and two scores. The Texans looked to have made the right decision in parting ways with Johnson after 2014, and his deal with the Colts is just one more black mark on general manager Ryan Grigson‘s ledger. Running back Ahmad Bradshaw, who has been incredibly productive on a per-play basis with Indy, was placed on injured reserve in November and hasn’t drawn any known interest on the open market.

Elsewhere on offense, veteran quarterback Matt Hasselbeck — who helped the Colts stay on the fringes of the playoff race despite a bundle of injuries — decided to retire, despite the fact that he posted relatively results in 2015. In eight starts, Hasselbeck posted a 5-3 record, completed 61% of his passes for 1,690 yards, and threw nine touchdowns against five interceptions. Although he likely would have been welcomed back for another season in Indianapolis, Hasselbeck instead chose to become an analyst for ESPN.

Center Khaled Holmes and guard Lance Louis spent more than 700 snaps trying to protect Hasselbeck, but neither will be back with the Colts in 2016. Both were slightly below-average players last season, but it was a tad surprising that Indy chose to cut ties with Holmes, who is still only 26 years old. Clearly, Holmes wasn’t going to continue to start after the Colts drafted Ryan Kelly in the first round, but he could have been a relatively valuable depth piece on an offensive line that has struggled with injuries.

On the defensive side of the ball, the most talented player walking out the door is linebacker Jerrell Freeman, who was lured to Chicago by a three-year, $12MM deal. There were conflicting reports as to whether the Colts were serious about retaining Freeman, a former CFLer who ranked as PFF’s No. 4 linebacker last season. While Freeman says Indianapolis never actually made him an offer, other reports indicated that the Colts proposed the same contract that he ultimately signed with the Bears.

Grigson has taken his fair share of heat for failed free agent signings, but Dwight Lowery, who agree to a minimum salary benefit contract prior to 2015, was a success story, as the veteran safety started all 16 games and served as a stabilizing presence in the secondary. However, Lowery is now 30 years old, so letting him walk and sign a three-year deal with the Chargers was also an idea I can get behind. Fellow defensive back Greg Toler is gone as well, but the Colts shouldn’t worry too much his loss, as he ranked about the six worst corners in the league last season, per PFF.

None of Bjoern Werner, Billy Winn, Jonathan Newsome, or Colt Anderson played more than 350 snaps on defense last year, and although all four played some sort of role on special teams, the Colts ranked in the middle of the pack on teams, so the club probably won’t miss anyone from this group. Werner, notably, is a former first-round pick who only posted 6.5 sacks in three seasons in Indy, while Anderson was part of perhaps the worst play in NFL history.

Trades:

Acquired a 2016 second-round pick (No. 57), a 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 125, and a 2016 seventh-round pick (No. 248) from the Packers in exchange for a 2016 second-round pick (No. 48).

Draft picks:

1-18: Ryan Kelly, C (Alabama)
2-57: T.J. Green, S (Clemson)
3-82: Le’Raven Clark, T (Texas Tech)
4-116: Hassan Ridgeway, DT (Texas)
4-125: Antonio Morrison, LB (Florida)
5-155: Joe Haeg, T (North Dakota State)
7-239: Trevor Bates, DE/OLB (Maine)
7-248: Austin Blythe, C (Iowa)

Offensive line has been an issue in Indianapolis since Andrew Luck entered the league in 2012, and the club has tried a variety of combinations in order to keep Luck upright. The front five hasn’t been stellar in the run game, either, as they ranked 27th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards metric last season. With that in mind, the Colts used their first-round pick on center Ryan Kelly, whom some evaluators considered the most pro-ready offensive lineman in this year’s draft.

Kelly was immediately installed as Indy’s first-team center, and he should prove to be an upgrade over Khaled Holmes (who was waived) and Jonotthan Harrison. PFR’s scouting guru Dave-Te Thomas is a fan of Kelly, as well, writing that the Alabama alum will bring an “instant nastiness” to the Colts offensive line.

“Strength is needed [at center in the Colts’ scheme] in order to stall the bull rush and help in widening the rush lanes,” writes Thomas. “Quick feet and fluid retreat skills are required, as it is often the center that has to drop back and protect the pocket in passing situations. A long reach, firm anchor and great balance are important for the center, as he is usually asked to work in combination with his guards getting out in front on traps and pulls. These are all the traits that Kelly brings to the table…”

Second-rounder T.J. Green will also be expected to contribute from the get-go, as he’s penciled in as the Colts’ starting strong safety given that Clayton Geathers is still dealing with a foot injury. Defensive coordinator Ted Monachino says Green still has some work to do, but the former Clemson Tiger has a fan in Thomas. “Do not be fooled by Green’s lack of experience,” says Thomas. “He has keen football instincts and field awareness, showing good urgency taking proper angles to close and shows a good feel in zone coverage to pick up and anticipate on the switch-off and combo routes. He processes the action in front of him well and gets a quick jump on the ball in run support.”

Extensions and Restructures:

Andrew Luck, QB: Extended through 2021. Five years, $122.97MM. $47MM guaranteed.
Trent Cole, LB: Accepted pay cut, creating ~$1.5MM in cap space by lowering 2016 base salary from $4.25MM to $2MM. In exchange, will earn guaranteed $1MM roster bonus.
Arthur Jones, DL: Accepted pay cut, creating $2MM in cap space by lowering 2016 base salary from $4.5MM to $2.5MM. Can earn $2MM through roster bonuses and incentives.

The Colts made Andrew Luck the highest-paid player in NFL history on a per-year basis, but the deal still seems like an underpay, a conclusion reached by many league observers. Luck had all sorts of leverage during negotiations, even coming off a lost season, but he still failed to top the $25MM salary mark, a plateau that most believed he would easily reach. Additionally, Luck didn’t overtake Aaron Rodgers in terms of guaranteed money ($54MM to $47MM), a fact that’s even more stunning considering that Rodgers signed his extension three years ago.

Luck, whom the Colts chose No. 1 overall out of Stanford in the 2012 draft, completed just 55.3% of his passes and logged 15 touchdowns against 12 interceptions in his injury-riddled, seven-game fourth season. Prior to that, however, he led the league with 40 touchdown passes in 2014 and helped guide the Colts to an AFC title game berth. After going 2-14 in the bridge year between the Peyton Manning era and Luck’s tenure, the Colts posted three consecutive 11-5 seasons from 2012-2014. With Luck on the sideline for most of last season, Indy finished 8-8 and failed to make the playoffs.

All in all, the Colts look to have scored a team-friendly deal, and as Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star noted earlier this year, the contract doesn’t figure to negatively affect the club’s cap in years to come given that the league-wide salary cap will continue to rise. From Luck’s point-of-view, the pact ends one year after the CBA expires and a year before the current TV deals are done. Although Luck will be 32 then, he could be in line for a much larger deal on the other side of this lucrative extension.

Other:

Extended general manager Ryan Grigson and head coach Chuck Pagano through 2019.
Hired Ted Monachino as defensive coordinator to replace Greg Manusky.
Hired former Dolphins HC Joe Philbin as offensive line coach.
Learned DL Arthur Jones would be suspended four games (PED policy).
Signed 21 undrafted rookie free agents following the draft.

In one of the most shocking turn of events during the offseason, the Colts retained both general manager Ryan Grigson and head coach Chuck Pagano, ensuring that the pair of decision-makers are now “contractually tied” through 2019, as owner Jim Irsay put it. Despite the duo’s success together, nearly every indication was that Pagano was certainly on his way out, while Grigson was also a candidate to be fired. Pagano and Grigson’s relationship was reportedly “toxic,” and the two lacked any sort of communication throughout the season, but it seems as though the pair’s record together — 41-23 — won out over any sort of personal conflict.

Pagano will have several new coaches working under him, including one, defensive coordinator Ted Monachino, with whom he has prior experience. Monachino was Baltimore’s linebackers coach when Pagano was the club’s DC, so the two should be on the same page in terms of scheme and personnel. Former Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin, meanwhile, will be tasked with overhauling an offensive line that has struggled to maintain any semblance of continuity during Pagano’s tenure.

Finally, veteran defensive lineman Arthur Jones will miss the first four games of the season after being popped for PEDs, but it’s hard to say that Jones will represent a major loss for the Colts. After coming over from Baltimore before the 2014 season, Jones has been either ineffective or hurt (he missed all of last year with injury), and was forced to take a paycut earlier this year. Fourth-rounder Hassan Ridgeway looks like the biggest beneficiary of Jones’ absence, as the could take over the starting role for the first quarter of the season, and perhaps beyond.

Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

Andrew Luck, QB: $18,400,000
T.Y. Hilton, WR: $11,000,000
Anthony Castonzo, T: $9,800,000
Dwayne Allen, TE: $8,906,250
Vontae Davis, CB: $8,375,000
Gosder Cherilus, T: $5,800,000 (dead money)
D’Qwell Jackson, LB: $5,750,000
Trent Cole, LB: $5,903,750
Robert Mathis, LB: $5,000,000
Erik Walden, LB: $4,250,000

This offseason, the Colts stopped trying to improve their club by signing over-the-hill veterans, and instead sought to augment their roster through a few cheap free agent contracts and the draft. The AFC South hasn’t gotten any easier, as the Texans may have found a quarterback and the Jaguars supplemented their defense, but as long as Indianapolis has its franchise quarterback in Andrew Luck, contention should be within the club’s grasp.

Information from Over the Cap, Spotrac, and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Beat: Will Leitch On The Cardinals

August 23rd, 2016 at 11:40am CST by Zachary Links

With the season fast approaching, we’re chatting with writers and columnists from around the league to gain insight on each team’s offseason and how those moves will impact the season ahead.

Now, we continue the series by discussing the Cardinals with Will Leitch. Will is a senior writer for Sports on Earth, a contributing editor for New York Magazine, and hosts the daily podcast “The Will Leitch Experience.” You can follow Will on Twitter @WilliamFLeitch.

Zach Links: Like many Cardinals fans, you were puzzled by Carson Palmer‘s collapse in last season’s playoffs. This offseason, the Cardinals tied themselves to the veteran through 2018 with an extension. How do you feel about Palmer as the Cards’ QB heading into this season?

Will Leitch: Yeah, he was a nightmare in the playoffs, like he’d forgotten everything that had made him and the team great throughout the season. You’d actually seen that in the Packers game, some dunderheaded mistakes that weren’t indicative of how he played in the regular season, but I thought it was attributable to him still not having that playoff-victory monkey off his back. And then he was ten times worse against Carolina. So, yeah, it’s worrisome, but not NEARLY as worrisome as it would have been if Palmer hadn’t have come back, or if he gets hurt. Palmer is the perfect fit for this offense — the only thing that isn’t perfect is that he isn’t 27 — but more to the point, he’s the only available fit for this offense. As bad as the playoffs were, the team would be completely lost without him. I’m terrified that he goes down in Week Two and the whole team implodes. The Cardinals have had some truly awful quarterbacking over the last decade; I’m twitching just thinking about it. No offense to Drew Stanton, but yes: Palmer is the whole sandwich here.

Continue reading our Q&A with Will Leitch..

Zach Links: Before the extensions for Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald, there was speculation that 2016 could be the final season for both players. Despite the deals, do you think we might see one or both of them call it quits after this year?

Will Leitch: It would require a career-ending injury for Palmer. Fitzgerald was surprisingly great last year, but he’s obviously not the player he was, overtime against the Packers aside. He’s a slot guy, and while he serves that role well now, you can see him fading a little more each year. He’s awesome, but he’s still a 33-year-old WR.I think the bigger issue with him is if the Cardinals can win a title. It’s clear the Super Bowl loss to the Steelers still kills him — I know how he feels — and he desperately wants a title to go into the Hall with. If he gets one, I can see him retiring on the spot.

Zach Links: The Cardinals shocked everyone in March when they acquired Chandler Jones via trade from the Patriots. What kind of impact do you expect Jones to have this year?

Will Leitch: Oh, we’re very excited. The one thing the Cardinals weren’t terrific at last year was rushing the passer, so Jones is ideal. Now, I get a little nervous when Bill Belichick gives up on a player, but he’s exactly what we were clamoring for. If he’s three-quarters of what he was last year, we might be monsters.

Zach Links: The Cardinals left St. Louis when you were 12 years old, but you remained a fan when they relocated to Phoenix. You’ve made the case that it’s easy for Rams fans to do the same in 2016 thanks to the internet and NFL Sunday Ticket. Do you expect that the Rams will have a lasting contingent of fans in St. Louis? Or will most Missourians wind up being football widows?

Will Leitch: Well, Stan Kroenke was such a monumental asshole on his way out the door that I don’t think any St. Louis fan wants anything to do with the team, and I don’t blame them. Good riddance. If they want to remain Rams fans, they can, but if they’re playing the nostalgia game, we’d love to have them back. At least the Bidwills didn’t excrete in the Mississippi River on their way out of town.

Zach Links: How do you see this year playing out for the Cardinals? Will they win the NFC West? Do you see them in the Super Bowl mix?

Will Leitch: I think they’re a complete team, but the two things that scare me the most remain issues: 1. Palmer’s injury history (again, we’re toast without him), and 2. the Seattle Seahawks. I’d argue the three best teams in football are all in the NFC: The Cardinals, the Seahawks, and the Panthers. The Seahawks caught some bad breaks last year, but they’re machines. I might pick them to win the division. Then we get the Cardinals-Seahawks NFC Championship game we’re all desperate for. (It would be so amazing.) Unless Palmer gets hurt. If that happens, well, I hope we stay ahead of the 49ers.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images and PFR on Instagram.

Bears Work Out Cary Williams

August 22nd, 2016 at 10:22am CST by Zachary Links

The Bears recently worked out free agent cornerback Cary Williams, a source tells PFR’s Dallas Robinson (on Twitter).

Williams, 31, signed a three-year deal with the Seahawks prior to the 2015 season. Unfortunately, things didn’t go as planned and Seattle cut him loose after ten games. Pro Football Focus ranked the veteran 102nd out of 118 qualified cornerbacks at the time of his release last month. Williams was inactive for his final two games with the Seahawks before he was cut. In January, Williams hooked on with the Redskins and appeared in their lone playoff game.

Williams didn’t play his best football in Seattle, but he does offer plenty of experience with 75 starts on his resume. Now, he’s looking for his next NFL opportunity and the Bears could have interest.

As shown on Roster Resource, the Bears currently have reserves Bryce Callahan, Deiondre’ Hall, Sherrick McManis, Demontre Hurst, and others behind starters Kyle Fuller and Tracy Porter. Williams could provide veteran leadership in that group following Brandon Boykin‘s season-ending injury.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Impact Rookies: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

August 22nd, 2016 at 8:40am CST by Zachary Links

The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? And, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

First Round – Vernon Hargreaves III, CB (Florida, No. 11 overall)

Hargreaves shows above average body control and does a nice job of keeping his feet on the move. He shows good agility and balance, but needs to redirect and change direction skills better when challenging the receivers running deep routes along the perimeter. Still, he shows explosion out of his plant and is a quick twitch type who shows good alertness vs. plays in front of him. When beaten, he has that sudden burst to recover. His quickness in transition prevents smaller receivers from getting good position working underneath vs. him.

Hargreaves is a mentally tough athlete and solid hitter who could play inside at safety, if needed. Still, his primary position with the Bucs will be cornerback. He will hustle and run down a ball carrier from across the field and seems to enjoy the contact in run force. He plays at full speed and few players in the game of foot-ball can match his quickness. He competes for the ball with no regard for his body.

With his exceptional speed. Hargreaves has no problem maintaining inside position when challenging a receiver in man coverage, especially when working along the sidelines. He has the speed, closing burst and ball reaction skills to stay tight with any opponent, whether they are quick and fast or tall and physical. He needs to improve his strength base, so not to get backed off by the bigger receivers at the next level, but has the frame to add the power needed.

Hargreaves will be a starter right off the bat for the Bucs and anyone who doubts his ability clearly wasn’t watching Saturday night’s preseason contest against the Jaguars. Hargreaves picked off opposing quarterback Chad Henne twice, helping Tampa Bay to a 27-21 victory.

Click here to continue reading about the Bucs’ rookie class..

Second Round – Noah Spence, DE (Eastern Kentucky, No. 39 overall)

Multiple drug test failures brought Spence’s Ohio State career to an end prior to the 2014 season, forcing him to sit out the year before he was accepted at Eastern Kentucky. Spence knew this was his “last chance saloon,” at EKU. He made the most of that opportunity, leading the Football Championship Subdivision with 22.5 stops behind the line of scrimmage while placing second with 11.5 sacks. He added 63 tackles through eleven games along with fifteen QB pressures and three forced fumbles. His average of 2.25 tackles-for-loss per game is the 18th-best figure in NCAA FCS history.

Spence then faced his biggest challenge – scouts and coaches at the 2016 Senior Bowl grill session. He handled himself well under a slew of questions about his troubling 2014 season. He then went out on the field at Mobile and simply dominated. By the end of the Senior Bowl practices, he was the near unanimous choice by NFL decision makers when it came to naming the top defensive performer at the event. Many teams wondered if the college rush end could make a successful transition to professional outside linebacker. The Bucs didn’t have that dilemma, however, as they felt comfortable with using him as a DE at the next level.

Despite his “bonehead mistakes” off the field, Spence is an instinctive player, but not the type that will out-think himself on the field. He is a quick reactor to action in front of him and easily picks things up well, showing no problem taking plays from the chalkboard to the playing field. There should be no issues with him digesting a complicated playbook. Spence is reliable, works hard in the weight room, and is a self-starter. He takes well to hard coaching and is the unquestioned leader of the defensive unit. For his age, he had an advanced knack for reading the quarterback well, as it is rare to see him fooled by misdirection or play action.

Spence is quite effective using his strong hand punch to shed blocks, but it is his ability to jam/reroute receivers that will earn him success when utilized as a 3-4 strong-side linebacker at the next level. He has no problem holding up tight ends and slot receivers in the short area passing game. He is an active, fend-off type of defender that will shock-and-jolt versus offensive linemen, as he also knows how to deliver a blow and is quick to get placement when trying to grab and jerk on the opponent’s jersey. When he keeps his pads down and hands inside the framework, he can clear blocks and get to the ball regularly. Even when his pad level gets high at times, he has a very good punch and extension to defeat the blocks. He uses his hands well with good placement, but does struggle some to shed and escape at times (mostly when working in-line). He has very good rip and pull moves, along with the ability to get active with his hands when attempting to separate vs. the blockers on inside running plays.

The Bucs plan on using Spence off the bench in his rookie season, playing in support of William Gholston and free agent addition Robert Ayers. Ayers put up some gaudy sack numbers with the Giants last season and Spence may be able to get some numbers of his own in this bookend rotation.

Second Round – Roberto Aguayo, K (Florida State, No. 59 overall)

Finally, I get to write about a kicker in this series!

Ask anyone in the scouting industry and they will tell you that lightning struck twice. More than a decade after Al Davis selected Sebastian Janikowski in the first round, an FSU player was unanimously dubbed as the best placekicker in his draft. Statistically, the Seminole is the most accurate kicker in the history of the college game. For his career, he tallied 405 points, making all 198 of his conversion tries and 69-of-78 field goals (88.46%) in three seasons.

Aguayo became the second Seminole in program history to be a three-time first-team All-American, joining Deion Sanders. Last season, he was named a semifinalist for the Lou Groza Award and finished the schedule going 21-for-26 on field goals, hitting his two longest (45 and 51 yards) vs. Florida in the regular season finale in Gainesville. He also connected on all 49 PAT chances during his redshirt junior season, placing second on the team in points with 112. He ranked fifth in the Atlantic Coast Conference in field goal percentage (.808) and field goals per game (1.62) and sixth in scoring (8.6 ppg).

While most kickers have a small frame, Aguayo stand 6’0″ and weighs 207. He shows good muscle tone, firm midsection and proper thigh and calf development. He’s very poised under pressure, showing great confidence in his ability to kick for distance and in poor weather conditions. He has tunnel vision on the field, blocking out all distractions and demonstrates pretty decent speed and urgency getting down field to help the kickoff coverage unit.

Aguayo has the quickness, balance, agility and leg flexibility to put full force behind his kicks from either hash, as he hits the ball with a quick stride, showing steady acceleration and trajectory on his attempts. He displays excellent mechanics and in a pinch, he can handle the multiple kicking chores, along with connecting with the ball with very good pop on contact during kickoffs, field goals and extra points. He has shown marked improvement getting his kickoffs to sail through the end zone (123-of-287 attempts resulted in touchbacks, 42.86%) and while he’s never been used for punting duties, he has the ability to field snaps with ease and can adjust to the off-target snap.

Aguayo can drive the ball deep on kick-offs, even when making attempts into the wind. He shows very good strength on contact with the ball, driving it deep and with great hang time. He is the type that can consistently get the ball into the end zone on kickoffs and has the range to make field goals from the 50-yard area. Each year, he has developed quicker steps to the ball, as he starts his motion early, giving him good snap-to-toe timing (1.29 second on field goals/1.21 on PATs).

The ball can explode off his foot and he has showed good improvement with his trajectory over the years (hang time was as low as 3.84 seconds earlier in his career, but his kickoffs averaged 4.28-4.54 seconds in 2015). The ball jumps off his foot with good rise on field goals/PATs, as he can generate good lift upon contact. He puts some nice air under his kick-offs and is not prone to kicking line drives. He also demonstrates the ability to kick off towards the corners or let the ball sail out of the end zone.

Aguayo can kick from both hashes effectively and he makes proper adjustments in his approach to the ball, based on field and weather conditions. He’s poised and in control in pressure situations, showing confidence and concentration coming through in the clutch. He’s also a tough open field tackler who will square up, wrap and secure with good pop on contact. He has the loose hips to recover when he’s juked by a returner and is not afraid to stick his hat into the pile.

For what it’s worth, Aguayo seems to be having some hiccups in preseason, but we’re hoping that he’s just getting the rookie jitters out of his system in advance of the regular season.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The Beat: Troy Renck On The Broncos

August 21st, 2016 at 9:30pm CST by Zachary Links

With the season fast approaching, we’re chatting with beat writers from around the league to gain insight on each team’s offseason and how those moves will impact the season ahead.

Now, we continue the series by discussing the Broncos with Troy Renck of Denver7. You can follow Troy on Twitter @TroyRenck (Note: The conversation took place on Friday, prior to the Broncos’ Saturday’s preseason game against the 49ers).

Zach Links: Is Ronnie Hillman in danger of not making the team? Are you surprised by him being on the roster bubble?

Troy Renck: Yes, Hillman is in real danger of not making the cut. He is competing against Kapri Bibbs who has kick return ability and it is hard to see both players making it. Bibbs is a more versatile special teams guy than Hillman is and they are really intrigued by Devontae Booker’s potential.

Zach Links: At what point did you realize that Hillman could be a roster casualty?

Troy Renck: As soon as they drafted Booker. Hillman went out into free agency and, unfortunately for him, he played his worst football in the playoffs. That was everyone’s last view of him and when he found a tepid market, he came back to Denver on a cheap deal. In my opinion, they re-signed Hillman to protect themselves in the draft so that they didn’t have to reach for a running back. Luckily for them, they got Booker.

Zach Links: What does Vance Walker’s absence mean for the Broncos? How might they look to fill the void?

Troy Renck: It hurts. He was already the guy filling in for Malik [Jackson] and he’s a really good run stuffer and a versatile guy. They signed Jared Crick and they’re hopeful that he can be an every down guy. It also puts the onus on Darius Kilgo. They need him to step up and provide real depth. Overall, it’s an area of concern for sure.

Zach Links: Who do you think should start at quarterback for the Broncos in Week 1?

Troy Renck: I don’t know the answer to that yet. It’s just such a huge game for Trevor Siemian on Saturday for me. He is likely to get a quarter and half with the starters and, if he nails it, he has the edge. It’s no longer like Sanchez controls his own destiny. If Siemian nails his performance, he’s the leader. The easy bet would have been Sanchez because of the experience, but obviously there hasn’t been enough distance between the two since April to make that a lock.

Zach Links: Which Broncos rookies do you think could contribute right away?

Troy Renck: Andy Janovich. He’s going to be their starting fullback right off the bat. He’s been impressing on special teams. Booker’s ability in pass protection has surprised me, he’s much more advanced in that area than I expected.

I’m also encouraged by Paxton Lynch’s progress. He’s really taken to the team’s coaching and so far so good with him. I think Lynch is their best athlete at the position and when he has to color outside of the lines, he is the best. He’s not ready yet to run the offense, but he has been impressive.

Zach Links: How do you see this season playing out? Can the Broncos repeat as champs?

Troy Renck: I don’t see a Super Bowl title for Denver but I see a team that can go 11-5 and get back to the playoffs. I don’t know that they can get home field advantage and that hurts. A lot of things fell into place for the Broncos last year. They set a record for games won by seven points or less, which demonstrates that they had some good breaks. They created some of those breaks for themselves, of course, but they won on really close games.

I think their defense is going to be outstanding, but I don’t know if they have enough to get home field advantage to get them though the playoffs. It could be a hard road through the playoffs, but I see a playoff team and a team that can win the division for the sixth-straight year.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

10 Teams That Could Claim RB Karlos Williams

August 21st, 2016 at 6:28pm CST by Dallas Robinson

After waiving him yesterday, the Bills “fully expect” another NFL club to land running back Karlos Williams, and we’ll find out tomorrow if any other team decided to place a claim (the waiver period is typically 24 hours, but rolls over until Monday on weekends). If no one else is interested, Williams will become a free agent. But given that Williams’ (minimal) signing bonus will accelerate onto Buffalo’s cap –meaning that any acquiring team would only be on the hook for minimum salaries for the next three years — it seems likely that Williams will get claimed.

Clearly, there are reasons to be concerned about Williams’ future. He’ll be suspended for the first four games of the 2016 season after violating the league’s substance abuse policy, and he’s struggled with his weight throughout the offseason. At one point, Williams was up 261 pounds, and after losing some of that heft, he’d reportedly begun to balloon once again, leaving the Bills to wonder if he was serious about football.

But Williams also flashed dynamic ability during his rookie season, finishing with 613 yards from scrimmage and nine TDs on just 104 touches while averaging 5.6 yards per carry. The 23-year-old also became one of just two players in NFL history to score a touchdown in each of his first six games in the league. All in all, Williams seemingly defines an old adage: high risk, high reward.

Let’s take a look at several teams that could be interested in Williams, listed in order of their waiver priority:

Cleveland Browns — New head coach Hue Jackson is trying to foster a new culture with the Browns, but he’s also shown a willingness to give players a second chance. He’s embraced wide receiver Josh Gordon, who was recently reinstated from a season-long suspension, and he stood by running back Isaiah Crowell after the latter posted a disturbing image online. Crowell and Duke Johnson figure to get most of the run for Cleveland during the upcoming season, but the club should be stockpiling talent during its rebuild, and Williams would be a cheap upgrade.

San Diego Chargers — San Diego had high hopes for its rushing attack after trading up to select Melvin Gordon in the first round of last year’s draft, but offensive line injuries and Gordon’s own poor play led to the Chargers finishing 31st in rushing DVOA. Gordon then had microfracture surgery in January, and while his long-term prognosis is positive, serious knee injuries are always unwelcome news for young running backs. It looks like Gordon is already losing work to Danny Woodhead during the preseason, and if the Chargers think Gordon is in for another sub-par season, they could take a risk on Williams.

Baltimore Ravens — This is only my speculation, but given that he’s on the wrong side of 30, coming off injury, and due a non-guaranteed $3MM base salary, veteran running back Justin Forsett could be a surprise cut as roster cutdowns approach. Such a move would be made much easier if the Ravens were able to acquire a talent like Williams, who could slot in the backfield after his suspension, teaming with Javorius Allen, Terrance West, Kenneth Dixon, and perhaps Lorenzo Taliaferro. Baltimore has taken chances on character risks in the past, though the club was burned by safety Will Hill, with whom they cut ties after he was handed a 10-game suspension.

Philadelphia Eagles — Like the Browns, the Eagles haven’t been afraid to collect players who are considered character risks, as evidenced by their trade for receiver Dorial Green-Beckham last week. Philadelphia is hoping it can turn around the career of DGB, who struggled with both motivation and learning the Titans’ playbook, and they could place a similar bet on Williams. Like DGB, Williams clearly has talent, and the Eagles could use another option alongside Ryan Mathews, Kenjon Barner, Darren Sproles, and Wendell Smallwood. Turron Davenport of USA Today recently looked at how Williams could succeed in the type of outside zone runs employed by the Eagles.

New York Giants — The Giants have a stable of running backs available, with veteran Rashad Jennings leading the way for a crew that also contains Shane Vereen, Andre Williams, rookie Paul Perkins, Orleans Darkwa, and Bobby Rainey, not all of whom will make the the final squad. But New York can feature a lot of backs who play specific roles, they don’t have one who looks like a bell-cow (perhaps outside of Jennings, who is 31 years old), nor does the club have a runner with the singular talent of Williams. However, given that Big Blue is dealing with backlash after domestic violence revelations regarding kicker Josh Brown came to light, they may not want to deal with Williams, who was investigated for domestic violence at Florida State (though no charges were filed).

Oakland Raiders — The domestic violence caveat applies in Oakland, as well, as the club’s ownership group has exhibited a zero tolerance policy for such actions. But since Williams was never found guilty, or even charged, perhaps that code wouldn’t apply. The Raiders seemed intent on adding another running back this offseason even though Latavius Murray was one of only seven backs to rush for more than 1,000 yards in 2015, and expressed interest in both Doug Martin and DeMarco Murray before using a fifth-round pick on DeAndre Washington.

Detroit Lions — We’ll mention the domestic violence accusations levied against Williams one final time, as Lions general manager Bob Quinn — who said when hired that he would “not stand for” DV or dangerous weapons — recently drew some ire for signing tight end Andrew Quarless, who had been arrested on a gun charge in 2015. But after finishing dead last in the NFL in rushing yards a year ago, Detroit didn’t do much to address its backfield, adding only Stevan Ridley (free agency) and Dwayne Washington (draft). the Lions were set to work out Arian Foster before he signed with the Dolphins, so they’re clearly still in the market for running back help. Plus, as Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press tweets, Quinn knows Williams from the duo’s time in the AFC East.

Indianapolis Colts — The Colts spent the offseason adding to their offensive line rather than looking for legitimate backup to play behind veteran running back Frank Gore. Gore is now 33 years old, and though he’s been extremely durable throughout his career, Indianapolis would have to turn to Robert Turbin, Jordan Todman, or Josh Ferguson if Gore went down. Williams wouldn’t need to play right away with the Colts, and he’d give the club a young back to pair with the rest of their youthful offense.

Washington Redskins — Second-year back Matt Jones is locked in as Washington’s starter in 2016, but he sprained an AC joint during Friday’s preseason game. Head coach Jay Gruden doesn’t expect Jones to miss much time, but if that changes, the Redskins don’t have many other options, with third-down back Chris Thompson joined on the roster by Rob Kelley, Keith Marshall, and Mack Brown. General manager Scot McCloughan isn’t big on off-field concerns, and as JP Finlay of CSNMidAtlantic.com writes, the Redskins would probably prefer to add a more experienced back who can play immediately.

New England Patriots — It’s doubtful that Williams fall far enough on the waiver wire to reach the Patriots, but New England could certainly use another running back, especially considering today’s news that Dion Lewis will be out 8-10 weeks after undergoing another knee operation. Even with Lewis sidelined, the Pats still have LeGarrette Blount, Tyler Gaffney, James White, Brandon Bolden, and Donald Brown on the roster, but Williams offers more ability than anyone in that group. If Bill Belichick thinks he can motivate Williams, the former Bill would be a solid add in New England.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PFR Originals: 8/14/16 – 8/21/16

August 21st, 2016 at 3:03pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

In PFR’s new series The Beat, Zach is conducting interviews with beat writers, columnists, and TV personalities about the team that they cover. This week, Zach spoke with Terry McCormick of TitansInsider.com, and discussed the Titans, DeMarco Murray, Andre Johnson, Dorial Green-Beckham, and Jack Conklin.
PFR has continued to go over each team’s rookie class with the assistance of scouting guru Dave-Te Thomas, who has served as a consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades. Dave covered four clubs last week:
- Atlanta Falcons
- Carolina Panthers
- Detroit Lions
- Minnesota Vikings
PFR has also continued to look back at the offseasons for all 32 clubs, examining the major signings, departures, trades, and other notable offseason events for each team. We covered three clubs over the past week:
- Green Bay Packers
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- San Francisco 49ers
Zach rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.

Impact Rookies: Carolina Panthers

August 19th, 2016 at 9:00am CST by Zachary Links

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

First Round – Vernon Butler, DT (Louisiana Tech, No. 30 overall)

While Butler is certain to play an important role in the defensive tackle rotation this year, his arrival holds even further importance. With the first round pick showing flashes in camp, the Panthers have not yet embraced the idea of giving right defensive tackle Kawann Short the long-term deal the player wants. They could let Short walk after the season, if Butler shows he is ready to step in and contribute this season.

Before his junior season, Tech coaches were seriously considering moving Butler to the offensive line – reasoning that his burst off the snap might be a better fit trap blocking from the guard position. Instead, they kept him on the D-Line and watched his draft stock soar.

Butler is a highly competitive sort who relishes his role as the defense’s “garbage man,” taking on multiple blockers constantly to free up a fellow Bulldog defender to make the play. He is simply unstoppable when he charges through the gaps and uses his hands with tremendous force when facing constant double teams. Some scouts were concerned about his gas tank late in games, but he worked hard during the 2015 offseason to get his weight down in order to eliminate his “tired legs” issue.

His strength at the point of attack is one of his best assets, as I have yet to see any blocker, or blockers, capable of riding him out once he anchors and establishes position in the trenches. He doesn’t use his violent hand punch as much as he should, but he can easily obliterate any blocker once he gets his hands into their body. He is the type that will rarely ever get bounced around by double teams, thanks to his overall strength and ability to remain at a low pad level. With his big, strong hands, body mass and aggression, Butler excels at shutting down the interior running game.

Second Round – James Bradberry, CB (Samford, No. 62 overall)

When a team loses a vital cog in their secondary like Josh Norman, it is very hard to replace that talent. However, the Panthers thought that Norman might have peaked last year and was not worth the money he was asking. Besides, there were locker room whispers than his on-field antics were starting to get in the way of his play and the solution for the team was to find his replacement in the draft. Carolina selected Bradberry in the second round, followed by West Virginia’s Daryl Worley in the third round. They then took Oklahoma’s Zack Sanchez in the fifth round, hoping one might of the three emerge this year. The Panthers’ depth chart now has Bradberry and Worley in the starting spots while Sanchez will serve as the swingman, backing up both of his fellow rookie defensive backs.

The reason for his instant success in Panthers camp is the fact that Bradberry is a smart, instinctive, and tough football player, one who diagnoses plays quickly and frequently a step ahead of the receivers. He is a physical tackler who can jam receivers when asked to line up in press coverage and he has the closing burst, along with awareness and positioning to make plays on the ball in flight, showing that second gear needed to run with receivers downfield.

Bradberry has fluid hips and can change directions instantly, doing a nice job of rotating his hips when coming out of his backpedal. He is savvy enough to know how to recover from rare false steps when keeping the receiver in front of him and he displays natural hands to snatch the ball out of the air. In run support, he fills hard and flashes the ability to deliver the big hit. He takes sound pursuit angles and is a consistent open field tackler that does a nice job of breaking down in space.

While his total tackle numbers are not awe-inspiring, Bradberry consistently steps up and makes hard tackles in run support and on receivers after the catch. He does a good job of using his hands to jolt and slow the receiver’s release off the line of scrimmage and he is able to stay with the receiver on short routes. He has the ball skills to reach in front of the receiver and consistently break up passes. He also reads the quarterback well in zone coverage. When he gets started toward the receiver, he has a good closing burst to either break up or intercept the pass and is especially effective in the red zone.

Third Round – Daryl Worley, CB (West Virginia, No. 77 overall)

Worley continues to prove in camp that his 2015 season, when he led the Big Twelve Conference with six interceptions and twelve pass deflections was no fluke. Through 34 games with the Mountaineers, he started 27 times – often covering the opponent’s top wide receiver. He recorded 146 tackles (126 solos) through three seasons, making 9.5 stops-for-loss while picking off a total of ten passes and breaking up 21 other throws.

Worley is a well-built athlete and he uses his size to be very effective with his initial jam at the line of scrimmage. He displays loose hips to turn and run with the receiver and can shadow even the speediest opponent due to very good lateral quickness and the ability to plant and go out of his cuts. He has that explosive burst to close on the ball and evident by his thefts and break-up figures, he gets his hands on a lot of passes.

Worley is a natural playmaker with soft hands for the interception, one who times his leaps well and can snatch the ball out of the air. He demonstrates good body control to make the catch outside of his frame and looks natural with the ball in his hands, along with possessing a good feel for the return and the vision to set up blocks. He has the agility and quick burst to accelerate, which makes him a reliable open-field tackler who can break down in space well and wrap his arms securely.

Seventh Round – Beau Sandland, TE (Montana State, No. 252 overall)

Normally, a seventh round tight end will barely get noticed in Panthers camp, but with All-Pro Greg Olsen dealing with back problems and backup Ed Dickson sidelined with a groin injury, the former Miami product who transferred to MSU is in line to earn the final spot on the three-man tight end depth chart.

This well-traveled tight end finally found a home in the Big Sky Country, where he has developed some very impressive blocking skills. Sandland sat out the 2014 schedule after transferring in late August. It allowed him time to add muscle and bulk in the training room. By the time the 2015 season commenced, he was firmly entrenched as the Bobcats’ starter. The All-American third-team and All-Big Sky Conference first-team choice by The NFL Draft Report contributed 37 catches for 632 yards and nine touchdowns during his lone season at MSU. Sandland’s nine scoring receptions led the tight end in the NCAA Football Championship Subdivision ranks and his 632 yards placed second at that position behind 850 recorded by Harvard’s Ben Braunecker. His nine touchdowns also tied for fifth on the school’s season-record chart.

Sandland is a fluid open field runner who is a valid threat to stretch the field or out-muscle defenders to get to the ball in a crowd. He is the type of runner that needs to be accounted for by the opposing safeties, as the slower linebackers struggle to maintain mirror in his route progression. He has large, natural, soft hands that lets him extend to catch outside the body’s frame. He almost never body catches and has the pluck-and-snatch agility to get to almost any pass thrown his way (only two drops in 2015). He is a smooth catcher and makes a concentrated effort to get to all throws – even the off-target ones.

Undrafted Rookie Free Agent – Keyarris Garrett, WR (Tulsa)

Kelvin Benjamin is reportedly out of shape as he recovers from last season’s knee injury and fellow wide receivers Stephen Hill (knee) and Brenton Bensin (ribs) also at less than 100%. One player to keep an eye on as training camp winds down is free agent Keyarris Garrett. The Tulsa standout was not taken in the draft, despite standing at 6’4″, 222 pounds with 4.5-second speed and a 37-inch vertical jump. Last season, he averaged 122.2 receiving yards per game, tallying an NCAA-best 1,588 yards with eight touchdowns on 96 catches.

Back in form as a senior, Garrett tested well at the NFL Scouting Combine and during Tulsa’s Pro Day, but then sat and waited for a phone to ring during the three-day draft event. Knowing that the Panthers were lacking depth at wide receiver and their penchant for signing big wideouts, so far, it looks like the team and player are finding common ground. If the injuries linger for Hill and Bersin, the Tulsa talent might be able to secure the fourth or fifth spot in the receiving corps.

Garrett is “starting to string it together,” according to head coach Ron Rivera, as the receiver has caught Rivera’s attention with his good performances throughout training camp. Now, the prolific producer at Tulsa is looking to continue his recent success in an attempt to carve out a role in the passing game. Based on his performance last year, you can see he is a player who can dominate smaller defensive backs with his height and strong overall build. His long strides give him deceptive downfield speed and he takes advantage of soft coverage with receiver screens and short patterns, making better use of his foot quickness than expected for his size.

Garrett generates quick moves at the line to get off a jam and shows that he is able to snatch the ball with his hands, secure it and quickly turn to get additional yardage. He has become a strong red-zone presence and jump-ball target due to his height, length and size. He will use his hands well while blocking on the outside, which can make him a valuable asset in the running game. While he doesn’t have elite top-end speed he does demonstrate impressive body control and soft hands.

The Tulsa product can twist his body to catch off-target passes with remarkable ease and can get up high to make the catch over cornerback in jump-ball situations. He has shown in camp that not only is he fully recovered from leg woes, but that he has no fear catching passes in traffic, taking a hard hit and holding on to the ball. He is the type that comes down the line aggressively and will blow up the linebacker on a crack-back block. He also does well blocking down the field, staying after blocks and eliminating the defender to spring the ball carrier for a big play.

Dave-Te Thomas owns and operates The NFL Draft Report, a service providing insight to league scouting departments for over 40 years. All year round, you can read Thomas’ in-depth reviews of both blue chip prospects and diamonds in the rough by visiting the NFL Draft Report blog.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason In Review: Green Bay Packers

August 18th, 2016 at 6:26pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

For the majority of NFL teams, finishing the regular season with 10 wins and picking up a playoff victory would constitute a successful year. The Packers accomplished those feats in 2015, yet their season was at least somewhat of a disappointment, especially after they got off to a 6-0 start. As the Packers scuffled over the season’s final 10 games, so did superstar quarterback Aaron Rodgers, whose descent (by his lofty standards) began in Week 8 during a 77-yard showing in a 29-10 loss to the eventual Super Bowl champion Broncos.

Including their shellacking in Denver, the Packers closed the regular season 4-6 and shockingly lost three of four games at Lambeau Field during that stretch. Each of those home defeats came at the hands of the NFC North, a division Green Bay had won four straight times entering last season. The final blow, a 20-13 decision against Minnesota in Week 17, cost the Packers the division and gave Minnesota its first North title since 2009. The Packers regained some of their mojo in the playoffs, going on the road to blow out the Redskins and then losing an overtime thriller to Arizona in one of the greatest games ever played, but they never really resembled Super Bowl contenders after their season-opening hot streak.

Part of the problem for Green Bay was the absence of standout No. 1 receiver Jordy Nelson, who didn’t play a game last season after suffering a torn ACL over the summer. The loss of Nelson took a player who had combined for 183 receptions, 2,833 yards and 21 touchdowns from 2013-14 away from the Packers’ Rodgers-led aerial attack. Rodgers and the offense in general didn’t enjoy life without Nelson, but with the wideout now healthy, the team will try to return to its division-winning, championship-contending ways.

Notable signings:

Mason Crosby, K: Five years, $16.1MM. $5MM guaranteed.
James Starks, RB: Two years, $6MM. $1.5MM guaranteed. $600K available annually via incentives.
Nick Perry, LB: One year, $5MM. $1.5MM guaranteed.
Jared Cook, TE: One year, $2.75MM. $825K guaranteed. $900K available via incentives.
Lane Taylor, OL: Two years, $4.15MM. $600K guaranteed.
Letroy Guion, DT: Three years, $11.25MM. $500K guaranteed. $250K available via escalators.
Lerentee McCray, LB: One year, $800K. $50K guaranteed.
Don Barclay, OL: One year, $700K.

As he has typically done since taking the reins as the Packers’ general manager in 2005, Ted Thompson largely eschewed the free agent market and mostly focused on retaining homegrown talent during the offseason. Of the Packers’ six most expensive signings this year, four were originally acquired either in the draft or, in offensive tackle Lane Taylor‘s case, as an undrafted free agent. Another, defensive tackle Letroy Guion, had been a Packer the previous two years.

The Packers’ most notable outside pickup during the winter was tight end Jared Cook, to whom they committed just one year and $2.75MM. Given that Cook only ended up on the market after the Rams released him, the Packers won’t have to surrender a compensatory draft pick for signing the 29-year-old.

Before joining the Packers, the 6-foot-5, 254-pound Cook was durable and productive in Tennessee and St. Louis from 2011-15, missing a mere three of 80 games and combining for 235 catches, 3,064 yards and 15 scores. Last season was the only one during that five-year period in which Cook caught fewer than 44 passes (39) and three TDs (zero). He hasn’t visited the end zone since Dec. 7, 2014, to be exact, and on another alarming note, led tight ends in drops (10) last season, per Evan Silva of Rotoworld. Cook also underwent foot surgery a couple months after signing with Green Bay, but he returned to the field last week and has since impressed Rodgers. The two-time MVP lauded Cook’s speed Monday and likened him to field-stretching ex-Packers tight end Jermichael Finley.

Between Cook and Richard Rodgers, who caught 58 passes and scored eight times a year ago, the Packers have a tight end duo capable of being among the league’s most prolific. Rodgers will cede targets to Cook, though, after dominating Packers tight ends in snaps last season (799 to second-place finisher Justin Perillo‘s 115). Part of that was on account of a torn MCL that kept Andrew Quarless out for most of the season. When Quarless was healthy two years ago, he and Rodgers combined for 1,108 snaps. With Cook replacing Quarless, who’s now with the division-rival Lions, Green Bay’s reliance on its top two tight ends should revisit (and perhaps exceed) its 2014 level.

Continue reading about the Packers’ offseason..

In addition to Cook, running back James Starks will serve as one of the Packers’ skill-position weapons in 2016. Starks spent his first six seasons with the Pack, but the 30-year-old drew offseason interest from at least two other teams (the Patriots and Dolphins) before re-upping in Green Bay through 2017. Starks, who logged career highs in several key categories last season, will continue as a steady backup to the slimmed-down Eddie Lacy.

“Eddie and James is our 1-2 punch,” head coach Mike McCarthy told Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com. “That’s been an excellent combination now going into our third year with those two guys. It’s important to establish that and make sure those guys touch the football.”

Every time Starks has scored during his career, Mason Crosby has kicked the extra point. That’s not going to change, as he easily landed the Packers’ largest offseason deal in length (five years), total value ($16.1MM) and guarantees ($5MM). Crosby, a Packer since they picked him in the sixth round of the 2007 draft, is now one of the league’s highest-paid kickers. The 31-year-old was mediocre from 2007-10 and a disaster in 2012, but he has otherwise connected on between 81.8 percent and 89.2 percent of field goal tries during the other four seasons of his career. Crosby hit 24 of 28 attempts (85.7 percent) and made all but one of five kicks from 50-plus yards (the miss was blocked) last season. He was also one of only two kickers to go without a miss on at least 35 extra points (he had 36).

On a per-year basis, outside linebacker Nick Perry collected the Packers’ most expensive offseason contract. Perry will rake in $5MM this season, but the team didn’t commit to him beyond that. Green Bay actually elected in 2015 to decline Perry’s fifth-year option for $7.75MM, so the club came out on top in retaining him for less. Ideally, though, Perry would have been worthy of that option. Instead, the 2012 first-rounder (28th overall) hasn’t quite lived up his draft status. He’s decent depth, however, and has totaled 12.5 sacks and five forced fumbles during his career. Perry amassed 3.5 sacks and one forced fumble while partaking in 33.4 percent of the Packers’ defensive snaps last season, leading Pro Football Focus (subscription required) to assign his performance a mediocre 58th-place ranking among 110 qualified edge defenders.

For the third season in a row, Guion will be one of the linemen in front of Perry. The 322-pounder avoided free agency by inking a three-year, $11.25 deal a month beforehand, though his contract contains a measly $500K in guarantees. Guion’s earning power took a serious hit as a result of a February 2015 felony arrest, one which came after Starke, Fla., police found 357 grams of marijuana and an unloaded gun in his truck. Guion ended up accepting a plea deal and settling the matter a month later, but the league subsequently hit him with a three-game suspension to begin last season. By including little in the way of guarantees in their pact with Guion, the Packers protected themselves against future off-field incidents and kept a solid nose tackle on a low-risk accord.

B.J. Raji is at least temporarily out of the picture (more on him in the next section), and fellow lineman Mike Pennel will miss the year’s first four games thanks to a substance abuse violation, making Guion all the more important to the Packers’ cause in 2016. Notably, when Raji sat out the entire 2014 season with a torn right biceps, Guion started all of Green Bay’s games and easily led their interior D-linemen in snap percentage (50.1).

Notable losses:

Brett Goode, LS
Casey Hayward, CB
James Jones, WR
John Kuhn, FB
Andy Mulumba, LB
Mike Neal, LB
Nate Palmer, LB: Waived
Andrew Quarless, TE
B.J. Raji, DT: Hiatus
Sean Richardson, S
Scott Tolzien, QB

As mentioned, Raji is no longer a member of the Packers, making this the first time since 2008 that Green Bay is entering a season without the 334-pounder under its control. The Packers wanted to re-sign Raji, who’s currently a free agent, but the 30-year-old is taking a hiatus from the sport.

Aside from missing 2014, Raji had been a mainstay along the Packers’ front since they drafted him ninth overall in 2009. Raji started in all 77 of his appearances from 2010-15, including 15 last season. His 2016 showing didn’t impress PFF, however, as the site ranked him 97th among 123 qualified interior defensive linemen. With Raji as the centerpiece of their line last season, the Packers ended up 21st in rushing defense (119.1) and tied for 26th in yards per carry against (4.5). They were a much better 13th in run defense by Football Outsiders’ standards, though, after the site gave the Packers a 24th-place ranking in that department without Raji in 2014.

Along with Raji’s exit came the departure of cornerback Casey Hayward, who parlayed his 51-game, nine-interception stint in Wisconsin into a reasonable deal with the Chargers. Although Hayward went without an interception last season after picking off three the previous year, he spent time both in the slot and on the outside, started a career-high 11 games and graded as PFF’s 16th-best corner among 111 qualifiers. During his run in Green Bay, which began when it grabbed him in the second round of the 2012 draft, Hayward lined up in the slot on 65.4 percent of the passing downs in which he participated and held opposing quarterbacks to a weak 72.1 rating on those plays (via Jared Durbin of CBS Sports).

As good as Hayward is, the Packers still look fine at corner with Sam Shields, Damarious Randall, Quinten Rollins and Demetri Goodson set to comprise their top four. Of course, enemy offenses will put their depth to the test early on account of Goodson’s four-game PED suspension. Their next two corner options, Ladarius Gunter (40 snaps) and Daniel Robertson (zero snaps), garnered little experience as undrafted rookies last season.

In addition to Raji and Hayward, the Packers’ defense also lost linebackers Mike Neal and Nate Palmer, who combined for 1,273 snaps a year ago. Most of those (734) went to Neal, who trailed only Clay Matthews among Packers linebackers. He also racked up 16 appearances for the third straight year and at least four sacks for the fourth straight season. Nevertheless, Neal remains a free agent, which he heavily attributes to the league’s ongoing investigation into claims that he and a handful of other players previously took performance-enhancing drugs. Matthews and Julius Peppers, both of whom have agreed to cooperate with the NFL, are also involved in that probe. Neal, on the other hand, hasn’t yet consented to an interview with the league regarding the accusations. If he doesn’t by next Thursday, he’ll face a suspension.

Neal’s ouster from Green Bay came as part of an offseason outside linebacker remodeling, as Ryan Wood of USA Today detailed in May, with Matthews headed back there from the middle, third-rounder Kyler Fackrell coming in, and third-year man Jayrone Elliott in line for more playing time. Of course, Green Bay also has Peppers and Perry on the outside, and Datone Jones – previously a full-time defensive end – is in the mix, too. Thus, the Packers are amply prepared for life without Neal and Palmer.

Offensively, the Packers chose not to re-sign a pair of fan favorites – receiver James Jones and fullback John Kuhn. Jones was a Packer from 2007-13, but he left for the Raiders in 2014. That didn’t work out, nor did a brief summer fling with the Giants, so he returned to Green Bay last September and ended up catching 50 passes for 890 yards (good for an excellent 17.8 YPC) and eight touchdowns. Despite that respectable production, the Pack didn’t show any real interest in re-upping Jones, who took a deal with the Chargers earlier this month.

The Jones-less Packers are in better shape than most at receiver, where Nelson will return to join Randall Cobb as their two best options. However, Davante Adams disappointed last season, Jared Abbrederis and Ty Montgomery combined for 24 catches, and playoff hero Jeff Janis is out for the foreseeable future with a broken hand.

As for Kuhn, he became an improbable success story with the Packers after signing with them in 2007. Now a Saint, Kuhn missed only five games in nine years with the Packers, made four Pro Bowls and, including playoffs, scored 30 combined touchdowns as a runner and receiver. In a league that’s phasing out fullbacks, Kuhn still managed to appear in 26.6 of Green Bay’s offensive snaps last season. Aaron Ripkowski, a 2015 sixth-rounder, will replace Kuhn in Green Bay. Their fans won’t have as easy a time chanting his name as they did Kuhn’s, though.

Trades:

Acquired a 2016 second-round pick (No. 48) from the Colts in exchange for a 2016 second-round pick (No. 57), a 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 125), and a 2016 seventh-round pick (No. 248).

Draft picks:

1-27: Kenny Clark, DL (UCLA)
2-48: Jason Spriggs, T (Indiana)
3-88: Kyler Fackrell, LB (Utah State)
4-131: Blake Martinez, LB (Stanford)
4-137: Dean Lowry, DL (Northwestern)
5-163: Trevor Davis, WR (California)
6-200: Kyle Murphy, OL (Stanford)

In hopes of securing a couple long-term building blocks up front, the Packers addressed the lines with their first two draft picks. Their top choice, well-rounded defender Kenny Clark (No. 27 overall), amassed 73 tackles and 5.5 sacks en route to third-team All-America honors last season at UCLA. In the wake of Raji’s quasi-retirement, the Packers will rely heavily on Clark as a rookie. He’s primed to start alongside Guion and Mike Daniels as they look to stuff the run and aid a Green Bay pass rush that produced the seventh-most sacks in the league (43) in 2015. Clark should contribute in both areas, as PFF’s Steve Palazzolo highlighted in a pre-draft scouting.

In assessing Clark, PFR’s own scouting expert, Dave-Te Thomas, wrote: “Clark has a very explosive initial step with quick feet, good athleticism and balance for his size, along with the body control and low pad level to come off the snap and get an immediate advantage versus a lethargic offensive lineman. He flashes a strong, consistent hand punch, enough to consistently put the blocker up on his heels, driving with good leverage walking that lineman back into the pocket. He has that initial burst needed on movement and the suddenness to gain advantage when engaging double teams. He has good initial quickness coming off the snap and for a player of his size, that burst can surprise an offensive lineman.”

With their second pick, the Packers moved up to take ex-Indiana offensive tackle Jason Spriggs in Round 2. In doing so, they gave up the 57th, 125th and 248th picks, which Chase Stuart of Football Perspective estimated in May as Green Bay paying the Colts 130 cents on the dollar.

Initially, Spriggs will act as depth behind starting tackles David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga – who combined to miss six games last season. Bulaga hasn’t played a 16-game season since 2010, his rookie year, so Spriggs’ presence might come in handy immediately. Going forward, Spriggs could replace impending free agent Bakhtiari on the left side next year. in the meantime, the 301-pound Spriggs will have work to do, as Thomas explained, “Spriggs has a tall frame with minimal body fat, but will need to add at least 20 to 25 pounds of bulk to succeed at left tackle.”

Like Spriggs, the aforementioned Fackrell might not contribute much this year. As mentioned, the Packers are loaded with depth at outside linebacker, for one, and the third-rounder from Utah State got off to an inauspicious start at camp. On a better note, Fackrell picked up a sack against the Browns in the Packers’ preseason opener last Friday. He accumulated a total of 13 during his three full college seasons, including five in 2015, and will make his mark in the pros as a pass rusher (if he makes one, that is).

The Packers had two fourth-rounders, the first of which they used to select another linebacker – ex-Stanford Cardinal Blake Martinez. Green Bay might have a steal on its hands in Martinez, who is set to accrue significant playing time in the middle of its defense this year after piling up 138 tackles and two sacks last season. Thomas likens him to former Pack linebacker Nick Barnett and current Jets stalwart David Harris.

Six picks after landing Martinez, the Packers circled back to the defensive line and added former Northwestern Wildcat Dean Lowry at No. 137. Lowry, like Martinez, has a legitimate chance to emerge as a great value pick immediately. With Fennel on the shelf for a quarter of the season, Lowry will be a relied-on member of the Packers’ defense. The 296-pound end filled the stat sheet at Northwestern, where he notched 28 tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks from 2013-15.

Other:

Declined 2017 fifth-year option for DE Datone Jones ($8.369MM).
Learned CB Demetri Goodson would be suspended four games (PED policy).
Learned DT Mike Pennel would be suspended four games (substance abuse policy).
Signed 19 undrafted free agents following the draft.

In Perry and Jones, their top pick in 2013, the Packers have back-to-back first-rounders whose fifth-year options they’ve elected against exercising in consecutive offseasons. The club decided in May not to pick up Jones’ $8.369MM option for 2017, which could make this his last season in Green Bay. Jones, 26, had eight sacks in three seasons as a D-lineman and will look to up his production in a hybrid role this year. To prepare for reps as an edge-rushing outside linebacker, Jones lost 15 pounds during the offseason, thereby dropping his weight to 284, according to Tom McMahon of the Associated Press. The returns have been positive so far.

“He got off to a very good start, had some very good physical plays, had the sack,” defensive coordinator Dom Capers said of Jones’ performance against the Browns.

Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

Aaron Rodgers, QB: $19,250,000
Clay Matthews, LB: $13,750,000
Sam Shields, CB: $12,000,000
Julius Peppers, DE/LB: $10,500,000
Randall Cobb, WR: $9,150,000
Jordy Nelson, WR: $8,300,000
Mike Daniels, DE: $7,400,000
Josh Sitton, G: $6,850,000
T.J. Lang, G: $6,181,250
Morgan Burnett, S: $5,956,250

The Packers didn’t live up to expectations in 2015, but it’s still fair to regard them as legitimate Super Bowl contenders entering this season. Not only is Nelson rejoining their offense, but their elite quarterback remains the face of an all-around terrific roster. At minimum, a return to the top of what will likely be a competitive NFC North should be within reach for Green Bay. Given that there don’t appear to be any pushovers in the division, the utter dominance the Packers exhibited in going a combined 20-3-1 against the Vikings, Lions and Bears from 2011-14 is likely in the rearview mirror.

Contract information from Over the Cap and Spotrac was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Impact Rookies: Atlanta Falcons

August 18th, 2016 at 10:20am CST by Zachary Links

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

First Round – Keanu Neal, S (Florida, No. 17 overall)

When the Falcons drafted Neal, they did so with the idea that he would start at strong safety from Day 1. That’s exactly how the Falcons are going to use the youngster just as soon as he rebounds from his “trunk” injury that has dogged him in recent weeks.

Neal is a smooth, fluid mover who has done quite a nice job of making plays at the opposite side of the field, thanks to his burst, second gear, and ability to sift through traffic to get to the ball. He shows excellent ball reactionary skills, along with the quick decision-making process to close on the play with good urgency. He can change direction in an instant and does a nice job of maintaining position when challenged by lead blockers assisting vs. the ground game.

He has the nimble feet you would want in a free safety, along with the loose hips to recover quickly when a receiver gets behind him. He can turn and run with the speediest of receivers, as he is a savvy player who knows how to disrupt the route’s progression by using his hands to knock his coverage assignments off stride. He has the loose hips and sudden burst to close on the ball in a hurry and shows good body control in transition. Neal has excellent hand/eye coordination, along with the leaping ability to get fine elevation going up to get to the pass at its high point (team’s active interception leader). He is quick and fast, which allows him to keep plays in front of him and mirror even the swift flankers and split ends in deep secondary coverage.

While he is too valuable as a centerfielder to remove him from either safety position, he has the speed, range and mirroring ability to excel as a slot cornerback, as he is fluid and calm in one-on-one confrontations with split ends and flankers, along with showing the physicality to reroute tight ends and slot backs working in the short areas. Neal has the quickness, agility, and speed needed in the slot to more than handle any NFL No. 3 receiver. His play is reminiscent of Ryan Clark in terms of his ability to quickly locate the receiver and stay on the hip of his man throughout the route.

Neal came into this draft with experience at both safety positions, but thanks to the recent success that the Cardinals and Rams had in utilizing big safeties to play the Cover-2 linebacker role, Neal drew extra attention. Handling Cover-2 assignments at the next level will see Neal return to his roots as he was a second level defender during his days at South Sumter High School.

Continue reading about the Falcons’ rookies..

Second Round – Deion Jones, ILB (LSU, No. 52 overall)

The Falcons have missed the steady play of Curtis Lofton, having let the middle linebacker leave after the 2011 season. Paul Worrilow manned the position last year, leading the team with 95 tackles, but the slow-footed defender struggled to contain the running game, evident by the twenty touchdowns Atlanta allowed vs. the run last season. While there were much bigger options in the draft, Atlanta recognized that Jones’ instincts and quickness far outweigh his deficiencies – size and bulk.

Still, the Butkus Award finalist joins the team having only started for the Tigers last season. He did make the most of his one year with the first unit, leading LSU in tackles with 100. Previously, he had thrived on special teams for first three years before flourishing as a senior at outside linebacker. He capped his career with 165 tackles, 21.0 stops-for-loss, and five sacks while playing in 51 games with 12 starts. He would serve as team captain and shared the squad MVP honors.

What separates Jones from most in his draft class is his outstanding instincts and reaction speed, as he knows the game and plays very fast. He is the type that reads plays quickly, whether smelling out a screen or coming off an edge blitz to take away an open back coming into the flat. There are times where he can get a bit overzealous against the run and will bite on play-action, but he has that burst needed to recover.

Because of his range, Jones can cover more ground than most linebackers, as he displays good lateral quickness and generally takes solid angles. He is also the type that can generate straight-line speed and closing burst to make impact plays in the backfield (13.5 tackles-for-loss in 2015). He does a nice job of breaking down in the open field and will consistently wrap up and get his man down. His only real knock here is that he does not display explosive initial pop as a hitter, which is partially a byproduct of his lack of elite size and bulk.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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