PFR Originals: 9/4/16 – 9/11/16
The original analysis and content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- After Tim Tebow signed with the New York Mets in order to pursue his dream of a baseball career, Zach Links joined the ensuing conference call with Tebow and Mets general manager Sandy Alderson. Alderson, for his part, emphasized that signing Tebow was not a public relations move, while Tebow revealed that he’s actually been interested in trying out baseball for more than year.
- The PFR staff made its predictions for the 2016 season, projecting postseason teams, Super Bowl winners, and individual awards. The Cardinals, Seahawks, Panthers, and Patriots are among the favorites to win the championship in our opinion, while many of our writers think that Aaron Rodgers can return to form and capture the MVP crown.
- PFR has continued to look back at the offseasons for all 32 clubs, examining the major signings, departures, trades, and other notable offseason events for each team. We covered two clubs over the past week:
- Zach rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.
Offseason In Review: Carolina Panthers
The defending NFC champion Panthers were in the midst of a quiet offseason until general manager Dave Gettleman made the shocking decision in late April to remove the franchise tag from star cornerback Josh Norman, with whom long-term contract talks weren’t progressing. The 28-year-old offered to sign his franchise tender for 2016, but the Panthers had already filed the paperwork to rescind it, thereby allowing Norman to hit the open market and quickly ink a massive deal with Washington.
With most worthwhile free agents off the board by the time Carolina waved goodbye to Norman, the club wasn’t able to make any notable veteran additions to replace him. As a result, the Cam Newton-led Panthers are left to hope a group of less established corners will step up in the wake of Norman’s departure and help them reach even greater heights than they did last season.
Notable signings:
- Paul Soliai, DT: Two years, $6.5MM. $3MM guaranteed.
- J.J. Jansen, LS: Five years, $5.475MM. $700K guaranteed.
- Mike Tolbert, FB. Two years, $3.3MM. $700K guaranteed.
- Gino Gradkowski, C: Three years, $3.15MM. $450K guaranteed.
- Joe Webb, QB/WR: Two years, $1.86MM. $200K guaranteed.
- Chris Scott, G: One year, minimum salary benefit. $30K guaranteed.
- Charles Johnson, DE: One year, $3MM. Was released prior to re-signing.
- Mike Remmers, T: One year, $2.553MM. Signed original-round RFA tender.
It looked as though defensive end Charles Johnson would precede Norman’s exit when the Panthers released him March 3, but the gamble to ax Johnson in a cost-cutting move ultimately paid off for the club. In releasing Johnson and re-signing him less than a week later on a cheap pact, the Panthers saved $8MM. Johnson, who reportedly turned down more money from other teams, missed seven of 15-1 Carolina’s regular-season games in 2015 and finished with his fewest sacks (one) since his rookie season in 2007, but he did bounce back to take down the opposing quarterback in each of the team’s three playoff contests. Johnson, 30, has 63.5 sacks during his nine-year Panthers career – including anywhere from 8.5 to 11.5 in each season from 2010-14.
Joining Johnson along the Panthers’ defensive line is newcomer Paul Soliai, who is continuing in the NFC South after spending the previous two years with the Falcons. Atlanta released Soliai both because of a high cap hit and an inability to fit into head coach Dan Quinn‘s defense. The 6-foot-4, 345-pounder saw his snaps decrease from 502 in 2014 to 357 last season, Quinn’s first year on the job, but the Panthers are betting he’ll fare well in their system and replace the released Dwan Edwards as durable run-stuffing depth behind Star Lotulelei. Soliai, a nine-year veteran and one-time Pro Bowler, has appeared in no fewer than 14 games in eight straight seasons.
Offensively, both fullback Mike Tolbert and right tackle Mike Remmers inked modest deals to remain in Carolina. As an unrestricted free agent, there was more danger in losing Tolbert, a two-time Pro Bowler who has managed to remain relevant as fullback usage across the NFL has dwindled. The Panthers deployed Tolbert on over 38 percent of their offensive snaps last year, and the 5-9, 250-pounder picked up 454 total yards and four scores on 80 touches (62 rushing, 18 receiving). Tolbert should once again complement Newton and Jonathan Stewart as a useful part of the Panthers’ run-based attack this season.
Remmers, who went undrafted out of Oregon State in 2012, made just one combined appearance with the Buccaneers and Chargers in his first two years before heading to Carolina in 2014. He logged five appearances, all starts, that year and then started each of the Panthers’ games last season. Remmers had an ugly showing in the Panthers’ Super Bowl 50 loss to Von Miller and the Broncos, but he partook in all 1,102 of their snaps during the regular season and graded a solid 39th among Pro Football Focus’ 77 qualified tackles. Carolina then retained Remmers, a restricted free agent, with a second-round tender ($2.553MM).
Pro Football Rumors’ 2016 NFL Predictions
The 2016 NFL season gets underway tonight, and the writers at Pro Football Rumors have weighed in with projections for the upcoming year. We’ve predicted which teams will earn playoff berths, which clubs will win their respective conferences, the Super Bowl champion, and the winners of the league’s major awards.
Can the Vikings repeat as NFC North champions under the guidance of Sam Bradford? No one at PFR seems to think so as all six of us picked the Packers to regain the divisional crown. There was also a clean sweep for last year’s NFC champs as Panthers are predicted by all to win the NFC South. Looking for some gutsier predictions? I personally have the Jets winning the AFC East and several perennial contenders out of the playoff picture entirely.
Click on the link below to see forecasts from Zach Links, Connor Byrne, Ben Levine, Rory Parks, Dallas Robinson, and Sam Robinson. And please head to the comments section to chime in with your own prognostications for the 2016 NFL season!
Tim Tebow, Mets GM On Minor League Signing
When Tim Tebow was last in the New York market, he was under center for the New York Jets. While the former University of Florida standout sold a whole bunch of No. 15 jerseys, he didn’t make a lot of plays for Gang Green and 2012 wound up being the last time Tebow was on an NFL regular season roster. After trying his luck with the Patriots and Eagles, Tebow turned his attention to broadcasting. After years of putting his charm, looks, and celebrity status to use on television, he is returning to professional sports in New York. This time, he’s trying to make it with the Mets organization as an outfielder. 
Tebow, 29, has not played baseball full time in more than a decade. In his recent audition for major league clubs, he reportedly struggled to hit off-speed pitches from former big-leaguers David Aardsma and Chad Smith. One scout told ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick that Tebow showed a below-average 40 grade arm on the 20-80 scouts scale – a reminder of why Tebow was never able to make it as a quarterback on the professional level. Even though he showed “undeniable hitting ability” in the view of Crasnick, one has to wonder how far Tebow can get given his age, rust, and athletic limitations.
Count Mets GM Sandy Alderson among those with faith in the polarizing athlete. Alderson told reporters on a conference call today that Tebow is not being brought in as a ploy to sell merchandise. While he recognizes that Tebow faces an uphill battle in many respects, the GM says that the Mets could not pass on “a tremendous opportunity for us to associate with excellence.”
“He has demonstrated through his personality a competitiveness that our players can see first hand,” said Alderson, who pointed to pitcher Seth Lugo and minor league standout T.J. Rivera as players who have come from obscurity to find success in the Mets organization. “I think any player evaluation starts with tools and from that standpoint, without grading everything out, suffice it to say that Tim has been a great athlete. He has demonstrated more than rudimentary baseball skills and we think with his commitment to success that this is an opportunity that we think is worthwhile. In terms of power, arm, foot speed, all of those things….we think he can be a baseball player. I think that is underscored by his competitiveness and his determination to succeed and improve.”
Alderson indicated that the Mets will be patient with Tebow as he refused to put a timeline on when the former Heisman Trophy winner could potentially reach the majors. The Mets will find out how ready Tebow is “over the next weeks, months, and possibly years,” though Alderson explained that he will be absent from his Instructional League commitments for “a few days each week” so that he can fulfill his TV obligations with the SEC Network.
So, why baseball and why now? Tebow explained that walking away from baseball was the “second hardest decision” he ever had to make and, in fact, he planned on making this switch more than a year ago.
“[Then Eagles coach] Chip Kelly called in the middle of baseball training and, to me, that wasn’t just any opportunity. I figured Coach Kelly’s offense might fit me really well. But, we all know how that turned out,” said Tebow with a self-deprecating laugh. “After that, I started doing a little [baseball] training. Then, after the season, I really picked it up and now we’re here.”
Tebow explained that as he traveled the country doing speaking engagements over the last few years, the itch to play baseball would move him to call up a local team and take batting practice with them. For UFC fans, this may be reminiscent of pro wrestler-turned-real fighter C.M. Punk telling the world that he has trained for MMA with the occasional jiu-jitsu class and a “background” in Kenpo karate. But, in both cases, one can’t help but be impressed by the athlete’s positive attitude, competitive drive, and willingness to take a monumental risk in a brand new endeavor. Punk does not speak of winning the welterweight title from Tyron Woodley and Tebow isn’t telling the world that he is an All-Star in the making. For Tebow, this is about pursuing a dream – perhaps a little late in his athletic life – and making sure that he does not wake up one day as a 50-year-old baseball fan with enormous regret.
“For me, I would consider success giving everything I have,” Tebow said. “That would be looking back on this journey and saying I did everything I could do to be the best I could be. I don’t necessarily view success as how many rings, championships, or promotions you get. I view it as whether I did everything I possibly could do to succeed.”
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Offseason In Review: Washington Redskins
The Redskins entered their second offseason under general manager Scot McCloughan, and while the club has shown an interest in developing a draft-based approach — as opposed to targeting high-priced free agents — Washington had to deal with the impending free agency of its franchise quarterback, and weigh a pursuit of a veteran defensive back who unexpectedly hit the open market.
Notable signings:
- Josh Norman, CB: Five years, $75MM. $36.5MM guaranteed.
- Kirk Cousins, QB: One year, $19.953MM. Fully guaranteed. Accepted franchise tag.
- David Bruton, S: Three years, $9MM. $3.4MM guaranteed.
- Colt McCoy, QB: Three years, $9MM. $1.8MM guaranteed.
- Vernon Davis, TE: One year, $2.4MM. $1.1MM guaranteed. $2.1MM available via incentives.
- Kendall Reyes, DE: One year, $2.5MM. $1MM guaranteed.
- Mason Foster, LB: Two years, $2.5MM. $350K guaranteed.
- Will Blackmon, CB: Two years, $2.05MM. $150K guaranteed.
- Greg Toler, CB: One year, minimum salary benefit. $80K guaranteed.
- Terence Garvin, LB: One year, $750K. $75K guaranteed.
- Ziggy Hood, DL: One year, minimum salary benefit. $20K guaranteed.
- Junior Galette, LB: One year, $1.6MM. $2.5MM available via incentives.
- Duke Ihenacho, S: One year, $675K.
- Kedric Golston, DT: One year, minimum salary benefit.
The Redskins didn’t wade very deeply into the free agent waters, choosing to spend their money at lower end of the market. However, the club did make two exceptions to that strategy, and each was its own unique situation. The first was on offense, where Washington retained its quarterback — fifth-year pro Kirk Cousins — via the franchise tag after the two sides couldn’t come to an agreement on a long-term deal.
It’s not surprising that that Cousins and the Redskins couldn’t come to a middle ground on his value given that he only has one full season of starting experience (and only one half-season of exceptional play). Washington was reportedly offering an extension that contained $24MM in guarantees and a $16MM per year salary, but given that the franchise tag will pay Cousins nearly $20MM in 2016 alone, he had no reason to accept such a proposal.
Both the club and Cousins seem content with the idea of him playing out the year under the tag, and the issue will clearly be revisited next offseason. If the Redskins want to place the franchise tender on Cousins again in 2017, they’d have to be willing to pay him almost $24MM (120% the value of the 2016 tag). But the more likely scenario — if Cousins plays well once again — entails the two parties coming to terms on an extension.
While Cousins is only locked up for one season, Washington signed cornerback Josh Norman for the next five years, agreeing to a $75MM contract with the All Pro after the Panthers rescinded the franchise tag.
The deal contains $36.5MM in full guarantees, but nearly 60% of that total comes in the form of guaranteed 2016 and 2017 base salaries. As such, the Redskins could conceivably exit the deal after two seasons without much dead money being left on the cap.
If Norman continues his current level of play, of course, Washington won’t have any reason to get out of the contract. Norman, 28, enjoyed a career-year in 2015 as he was named to the All Pro first team and selected for his first Pro Bowl. He produced career highs in both interceptions (four) and passes defensed (18), and was well-regarded by advanced metrics as well, finishing as the league’s 12th-best corner by Pro Football Focus’ grades.
Norman wasn’t the only addition the Redskins made to their secondary, as the club also agreed to terms with former Broncos safety David Bruton. Nearly 30 years old, Bruton has never been a full-time starter during his NFL career,
but he’ll get that opportunity now opposite DeAngelo Hall. Denver played a bunch of three-safety looks last year, so Bruton did see action on more than 40% of snaps in 2015. Meanwhile, Will Blackmon, Greg Toler, and Duke Ihenacho will all vie for rotational snaps in the defensive backfield while adding value on special teams.
Washington also made several cheap signings along the front seven, and two of them — defensive lineman Ziggy Hood ($20K guaranteed) and Kedric Golston (no guaranteed money) — are listed as starters on the club’s official depth chart that was released today. Along with fellow new addition Kendall Reyes and holdovers Ricky Jean-Francois and Anthony Lanier, the Redskins figure to rotate their defensive lineman quite a bit in order to keep everyone fresh.
Two re-signings that didn’t make much sense were tight end Vernon Davis and linebacker Mason Foster. Davis, 32, has a familiarity with McCloughan from the pair’s time in San Francisco, but the veteran tight end looked completely lost with both the 49ers and Broncos last season. Clearly, he won’t be asked to be a No. 1 option with Jordan Reed in tow, but $1.1MM in guarantees is not an insignificant amount of money. Foster, meanwhile, wasn’t very effective after being signed last September, and other free agent options such as Craig Robertson or Zach Brown could have been more cost-effective moves.
Continue reading about the Redskins’ offseason…
Impact Rookies: Arizona Cardinals
The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? And, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?
To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.
First Round – Robert Nkemdiche, DT (Mississippi State, No. 29 overall)
The NFL Draft Report casts a wary eye on the Cardinals’ first round selection. In sort of a déjà vu’ for the staff, could this Ole Miss prospect pull a “Honey Badger” and see the error of his ways off the football field, or are we again seeing a remake of the Demetrius Underwood situation, where a talented player simply self-destructs in life? We are very cautiously including him in this article, because it’s hard to cast the troubled Nkemdiche as an “impact player,” despite his talent. 
[RELATED – Click here to read our in-depth recap of the Cardinals’ offseason]
Currently, Nkemdiche is slated to be one of the first defensive ends off of the bench in relief of Chandler Jones and Calais Campbell. The Cardinals say they want to extend Campbell, but that could be a tall order as they also have to carve out a monster deal to retain Jones. If all works out with Nkemdiche, he can serve as insurance against Campbell going elsewhere in free agency.
Nkemdiche has Ndamukong Suh-like athletic ability, but his problems occur when he seems to throttle down more than he plays with intensity. His occasional “let-ups” on the field became much more noticeable this year and he did seem to be more concerned about his running back duties than he did in giving pursuit as a defender. The Ole Miss defender made only two long distance tackles this year, despite having valid lateral agility and burst to give proper chase. When his head is in the game, Nkemdiche demonstrates the ability to easily take plays from the chalkboard to the field.
He needs minimal reps to retain and evident by the fact that he has started every game during his career, he has a good feel for blocking schemes and the vision to locate the ball in a hurry. He understands his assignments and his feel for the ball is above average, but his woeful inconsistency and attention to detail can be maddening, at times. He is not the type who will make an effort on every play to get to the ball and there are more than a few times where he is caught out of position due to a mental error.
Nkemdiche is a hard worker in the weight room, but is the type that needs to be pushed to get the best effort out of him. He has the ability to be a self-starter and he is a good field leader who lets his actions speak louder than his words, but his inconsistency has now become an issue. He is compliant to the coach’s wishes and plays with good intensity and effort when he performs to his ability, but he runs too hot-and-cold to be strongly considered a football player on par with his athleticism.
Ultimately, on the field, we believe that Nkemdiche has a lot to offer. How he performs at the next level, however, will hinge largely on his own head.
Offseason In Review: Tennessee Titans
After one of the busiest offseasons in the NFL, the Titans are looking to take one major step forward in their rebuilding process.
Notable signings:
- Ben Jones, C: Four years, $17.5MM. $7.5MM guaranteed.
- Al Woods, DT: Three years, $10.5MM. $3.75MM guaranteed.
- Rishard Matthews, WR: Three years, $15MM. $2.5MM guaranteed.
- Brice McCain, CB: Two years, $4.4MM. $1MM guaranteed.
- Matt Cassel, QB: One year, $2MM. $750K guaranteed.
- Sean Spence, LB: One year, $2.5MM. $500K guaranteed.
- Rashad Johnson, S: One year, $2MM. $500K guaranteed. $1MM available via incentives.
- Antwon Blake, CB: One year, $1.5MM. $200K guaranteed.
- Andre Johnson, WR: Two years, $2.985MM.
There was lots of activity in Tennessee over these last few months, but relatively little happening on the free agent market. One notable move they did make was the signing of center Ben Jones, which strengthened their interior line while hurting the rival Texans. Given the season-ending injury suffered by presumptive starter Nick Martin, the loss of Jones will sting extra hard in Houston. 
Jones, 26, was with the Texans since 2012, when he entered the league as a fourth-round pick out of Georgia. He became Houston’s full-time starter in 2014, and he’s started all 32 games since. Jones posted solid marks from Pro Football Focus, which ranked him as the No. 18 center in the league last season, noting that he was better in the pass game than as a run-blocker.
Early on in free agency, the Titans re-signed defensive tackle Al Woods to a three-year pact. Woods, who recently turned 29, picked up 22 tackles in 14 games (nine starts) for the Titans in 2015. With fellow nose tackle Sammie Lee Hill recovering from a knee injury to open the season, Woods saw most of the playing time at the position, earning 362 defensive snaps to Hill’s 190 for the season. While Pro Football Focus ranked Woods just 88th out of 123 interior defenders, PFF gave him a solid grade as a run defender, and he was primarily used on early downs. At the time of his new deal, it looked like Woods would be slotted in as the team’s starting nose tackle. However, the Titans found their new starter in the draft (more on that later).
Wide receiver Rishard Matthews was a pleasant surprise for Dolphins fans and fantasy owners alike in 2015. In 11 contests last season, Matthews totaled 662 yards and averaged 15.4 per reception as the Fins’ downfield complement to Jarvis Landry. Unfortunately, a season-ending injury later in the season ended his breakout campaign prematurely. That bad break also may have capped his free agent market somewhat. Ultimately, the Titans were able to sign Matthews to a three-year deal with a paltry $2.5MM guaranteed. After Dorial Green-Beckham was jettisoned to Philly, Matthews probably now stands as the team’s No. 1 wide receiver.
Matthews isn’t the only Miami import as the Titans also signed cornerback Brice McCain. McCain started 10 games and played 735 defensive snaps for the Dolphins in 2015, picking up an interception to go along with 39 tackles. However, the Dolphins decided to cut him this year in order to save $2.5MM against the cap. Despite making 10 starts for Miami last year, he’ll play a reserve role this year behind starters Jason McCourty and Perrish Cox.
The Titans reportedly made quarterback Matt Cassel a priority in free agency as they wanted to shore up the quarterback position behind Marcus Mariota. Evidently, the Cassel signing was made so that the Titans could move on from Zach Mettenberger later on in the offseason.
Offseason In Review: New York Giants
After a 6-10 finish in 2015, the Giants made a coaching change and spent like crazy in free agency to right the ship. Will it be enough to put Big Blue back in the postseason?
Notable signings:
- Olivier Vernon, DE: Five years, $85MM. $40MM guaranteed.
- Janoris Jenkins, CB: Five years, $62.5MM. $28.8MM guaranteed.
- Jason Pierre-Paul, DE: One year, $10MM. $8.5MM guaranteed. $500K available via incentives.
- Jasper Brinkley, LB: One year, $1.8MM. $1.7MM guaranteed.
- Josh Brown, K: Two years, $4MM. $1MM guaranteed. $750K available via incentives.
- Keenan Robinson, LB: One year, $2.6MM. $1MM guaranteed. $900K available via incentives.
- Will Johnson, FB: Two years, $2.3MM. $500K guaranteed.
- Zak DeOssie, LS: One year, $1.1MM. $275K guaranteed.
- Leon Hall, CB: One year, $1.5MM. $115K guaranteed.
- Kelvin Sheppard, LB: One year, minimum salary benefit. $80K guaranteed.
- Bobby Rainey, RB: One year, minimum salary benefit. $40K guaranteed.
- Larry Donnell, TE: One year, $1.671MM. Signed original-round RFA tender.
- B.J. Daniels, QB/WR: Two years, $1.29MM.
- Randy Bullock, K: One year, minimum salary benefit.
- Byron Stingily, T: One year, minimum salary benefit.
- Ryan Seymour, OL: One year, $600K.
The cost of edge rushers goes up year and after year and the Giants set a new watermark this offseason when they signed free agent Olivier Vernon. Vernon’s five-year deal is worth $85MM overall with $40MM+ in guaranteed cash, the largest guarantee of any free agent in the 2016 class. Though Malik Jackson‘s $85.5MM deal technically edged him out for overall base value, Vernon probably got the better deal. 
Vernon ranked third overall behind only Khalil Mack and Von Miller among edge defenders last season, according to Pro Football Focus, after amassing 7.5 sacks and 61 tackles. That puts the former Dolphin in elite company, though a pessimist would note that Vernon has only topped 10 sacks once in his career (11.5 in 2013) and $40MM+ guaranteed is a lot for a guy who doesn’t have a history of elite sack production. Regardless, Vernon is a difference-maker and one of the league’s best bookends any way you slice it. The giant deal may not prove to be a wise investment in the long run, but there’s little doubt that it will reignite the Giants’ pass rush in 2015.
On the first day of free agency, the Giants pounced to sign Janoris Jenkins, a player widely considered to be the best cornerback in this year’s class. The Rams, choosing to put their funds elsewhere and their faith in Trumaine Johnson, only offered Jenkins a a five-year offer worth about $45MM. Jenkins wisely declined and entered the open market, where he got a whopping $62.5MM over five years with nearly $29MM guaranteed. In Jenkins, the Giants got a top cornerback who doesn’t turn 28 until October. Now, the Giants will have Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the secondary (plus a promising first-round choice – more on that later) and that will force opposing quarterbacks to think twice before they throw.
Last summer, the New York tabloids were almost entirely dedicated to Jason Pierre-Paul and his 4th of July mishap. At the time, it appeared that JPP had blown up any opportunity at a future with the Giants. After the unfortunate accident, the Giants immediately reached out to the defensive end to check in on him and offer help. JPP responded by hutting out the team and keeping them in the dark for much of the offseason on his status. Eventually, Pierre Paul’s relationship with the Giants healed up along with his hand.
Pierre-Paul returned to the field in November and ended up appearing in eight games, registering 26 tackles and a personal-low one sack. Despite his statistical decline, Pro Football Focus still ranked Pierre-Paul a solid 30th out of 91 qualifying edge rushers. Here at PFR, we ranked JPP as the seventh-best free agent on the market. It wasn’t cheap, but the Giants retained Pierre-Paul for only one year, protecting themselves against any potential decline.
Offseason In Review: New York Jets
In 2015, a locker room fight between Geno Smith and a reserve linebacker changed the entire course of the Jets’ season. The skirmish left Smith with a broken jaw and left the door open for Ryan Fitzpatrick to show what he could do. Not only was Fitzpatrick a capable fill-in, he turned out to be one of the league’s better quarterbacks last season.
How could the Jets and the Harvard grad ever top that kind of offseason drama? Well, they gave it their best shot this spring and summer.
Notable signings:
- Muhammad Wilkerson, DE: Five years, $86MM. $36.75MM guaranteed. Had been assigned franchise tag.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB: One year, $12MM. Fully guaranteed.
- Matt Forte, RB: Three years, $12MM. $9MM guaranteed. $2MM available annually via escalators.
- Bilal Powell, RB: Three years, $11.25MM. $6MM guaranteed. $2.25MM available via escalators.
- Steve McLendon, DT: Three years, $10.5MM. $4MM guaranteed. $1.5MM available via escalators.
- Jarvis Jenkins, DE: Two years, $6MM. $3MM guaranteed.
- Erin Henderson, LB: Two years, $4MM. $750K guaranteed. $1MM available via incentives.
- Kellen Davis, TE: One year, minimum salary benefit. $230K guaranteed.
- Khiry Robinson, RB: One year, $1.175MM. $80K guaranteed.
- Bruce Carter, LB: One year, minimum salary benefit. $80K guaranteed.
- Darryl Morris, CB: One year, $750K. $75K guaranteed.
- Jeremy Ross, WR: One year, minimum salary benefit. $50K guaranteed.
- Kenbrell Thompkins, WR: One year, $1.671MM. Signed original-round RFA tender.
- Zach Sudfeld, TE: One year, $600K.
- Antone Smith, RB: Contract terms unknown.
In the spring, the Jets tried to re-sign Fitzpatrick to a three-year deal in the $7MM/year range. That annual value was similar to the contracts signed by Robert Griffin III and Chase Daniel earlier this offseason. Of course, Fitzpatrick was significantly more productive in 2015 than those two have been in recent years. His camp argued that he was in line for about $14-15MM year, pointing out that Sam Bradford and Brock Osweiler received contracts in the neighborhood of $18MM annually, even though they also didn’t achieve what Fitzpatrick did last year. The only trouble is, no other team appeared to show serious interest in him. Even the Broncos – who were left without a QB after one retired and one bolted – didn’t seem very interested in Fitzpatrick. 
The standoff took a number of weird twists and turns. First, there was a report that Fitzpatrick would rather walk away from the sport altogether than pay on what he believed was an unsatisfactory contract. Then, there were rumblings that he would consider playing as a No. 2 quarterback elsewhere to spite the Jets. Both claims were likely floated out by Fitzpatrick’s reps, but neither threat had much behind it.
Eventually, the Jets and Fitzpatrick came back to the negotiating table and shook hands on a one-year, fully guaranteed pact worth $12MM. Even though Fitzpatrick turns 34 in November, he should have the opportunity to cash in a multi-year deal next offseason if he is able to reprise his ’15 performance. Many would say that Fitzpatrick won the stare down with the Jets, but both sides needed each other and it’s hard to fault Gang Green for caving.
In all of the talk surrounding Fitzpatrick, defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson was almost an afterthought. Wilkerson, 27 in October, has established himself as one of the game’s best young defensive ends. Unlike talented teammate Sheldon Richardson, he has stayed out of trouble off the field while he dominates on the field. Still, the Jets showed very little interest in re-signing him this offseason, choosing instead to employ the franchise tag.
“Do I feel that they want me back? As of right now, no. I don’t feel like they want me,” Wilkerson said. “I’m a talented guy. Everybody knows that. I feel like they’re going to get the best they can out of me and just let me go. That’s how I feel. Do I like that feeling? No. I’m a New Jersey guy, born and raised and would love to raise my family here.”
Then, on the day of the franchise tag extension deadline, the Jets shocked the world when they announced that they had reached a five-year, $86MM deal with Wilkerson. So, what changed? It’s possible that the Jets realized late in the game that they needed to hammer out a long-term deal in order to improve their cap situation in 2016. Whatever the reason, Jets fans rejoiced when Wilkerson was locked up for years to come. $37MM of Wilkerson’s deal is fully guaranteed with $54MM coming to him over the next three years. That means that Wilkerson is getting paid major money, but the Jets can also cut bait with him prior to the 2018 season to get out of the other $17MM.
The Jets made a big splash in free agency when they signed running back Matt Forte. Numerous clubs were said to be interested in Forte after the
Bears informed him that he would not be re-signed after eight seasons in Chicago. Forte had a relatively down season in 2015, missing three games with injury and failing to top 1,000 yards rushing for the first time since 2011. But, he still managed almost 1,300 yards from scrimmage thanks to his receiving ability — he caught 44 passes out of the backfield for almost 400 yards. Some are skeptical about what Forte can do at his age (31 in December), but he has a lot more in the tank than LaDainian Tomlinson did when he joined up with the Jets as a free agent years ago.
Besides, the Jets still have Bilal Powell to help run the ball and ease Forte’s workload. Powell averaged a career-high 4.5 yards per carry on 70 attempts last season and added a personal-best 47 receptions. The Jets did not want to let him linger on the free agent market and they wrapped him up on March 10th, keeping him away from interested clubs including the Cowboys, Ravens, Broncos, and rival Patriots.
Offseason In Review: Houston Texans
The Texans’ blueprint this offseason obvious to everyone as they devoted a full-force effort on multiple fronts to fix their offense. After a defensive-powered season ended with a 30-0 shutout in the wild-card round, Houston will deploy a starkly different starting offense.
For most of this century, teams with elite quarterbacks or those equipped with dominant defenses advanced to Super Bowls. There aren’t many exceptions in the modern game. The 2012 Ravens are one, but they were riding a hot streak from Joe Flacco who was playing some of his best football. The 2016 Texans are banking on another fifth-year passer, but Flacco and Brock Osweiler‘s careers aren’t exactly comparable. Houston bet big on the longtime backup who was at times effective in his audition last season.
Although they employ one of the NFL’s premier players in J.J. Watt, the Texans’ chances will hinge largely on the 6’7″ Osweiler building on his brief success. Last year’s No. 3-ranked defense lifted the team about as far as it could. This offseason, management made a point to provide as much help as possible.
Notable signings:
- Brock Osweiler, QB: Four years, $72MM. $37MM guaranteed.
- Lamar Miller, RB: Four years, $26MM. $14MM guaranteed.
- Jeff Allen, OL: Four years, $28MM. $12MM guaranteed.
- Chris Clark, T: Two years, $6MM. $3.25MM guaranteed.
- Tony Bergstrom, C: Two years, $5.75MM. $1.5MM guaranteed.
- Shane Lechler, P: One year, $1.8MM. $500K guaranteed.
- Brandon Weeden, QB: Two years, $4MM. $450K guaranteed.
- Eddie Pleasant, S: Two years, $2.15MM. $311K guaranteed.
- Quintin Demps, S: One year, $1.5MM. $260K guaranteed.
- Jonathan Grimes, RB: One year, $900K. $200K guaranteed.
- Antonio Allen, S: One year, $800K. $80K guaranteed.
- Nick Novak, K: One year, minimum salary benefit. $80K guaranteed.
- A.J. Bouye, CB: One year, $1.671MM. Signed original-round RFA tender.
- John Simon, LB: One year, $1.671MM. Signed original-round RFA tender.
Midway through 2014, it looked like Peyton Manning was going to play out the five-year contract he signed with the Broncos in 2012, thus giving his lanky backup no realistic opportunity impress potential buyers as a free agent. But the future Hall of Fame quarterback experienced a quick decline that forced the Broncos to retool their offense that season, and his freefall continued in 2015 prior to Manning injuring his foot. Osweiler stepped in and kept his previous defensive-fueled team afloat, altering his career in the process.
The seven-game work sample Osweiler offered included mixed reviews. He showcased some ability despite no previous experience in an important game situation, leading the Broncos to a 4-2 record in games he played throughout. The former second-round pick drove the team to pivotal victories over the Patriots and Bengals to help the Broncos secure home-field advantage. He finished with 10 touchdown passes, six interceptions and 245.9 passing yards per game. Denver’s offense also sputtered for several entire halves under Osweiler’s guidance, leading to two December losses and increasing the defense’s burden. What happened during the final stretch of offensive futility under the 25-year-old Osweiler may have changed the long-term outlook for two franchises.
Benched for Manning early in the third quarter of the Broncos’ Week 17 game after a spate of turnovers that mostly were hard to pin on him, Osweiler either was merely miffed at the idea of being replaced after guiding Denver back to the precipice of home-field advantage. Or he saw Gary Kubiak‘s decision as evidence he didn’t want to return to the team. His agreement with Houston came after Denver offered him $16MM per year to continue in a system in which he showed promise. Osweiler has attributed the surprising exit to wanting to start something with the Texans, who are placing immense faith in the Arizona State product whose career began with a longer backup stint than Aaron Rodgers‘.
The Texans are committed to Osweiler for the next two seasons at least. This experiment failing can reasonably result in a divorce in 2018, when just $6MM in dead money would be attached to an Osweiler release. But the Texans spent plenty in offseason capital to give their quarterback weaponry after deploying an offense without much in the way of options beyond DeAndre Hopkins last season.
Houston moved quickly to replace Arian Foster, signing Miller on Day 1 of free agency. Unlike the new franchise quarterback, the Texans’ cornerstone ball-carrier’s ability can be judged based on full-season bodies of work. Miller posted back-to-back slates of at least 1,200 yards from scrimmage. Among backs who received at least 400 carries in 2014-15, Miller’s 4.8 yards per tote rank as the league’s top mark in a sub-category basically exclusive to starting backs. As a receiver, Miller caught 47 passes for nearly 400 yards last season, so he’s no slouch as an outlet option, either.
Miller played 16 games in each of the Dolphins’ past three regular seasons, but 2014’s 210 carries represent the former fourth-round pick’s career high. He stands to have plenty of opportunities in Houston, which looks to have signed a 25-year-old runner with upside thanks to his age and a lack of usage typical of a three-year starter. By this measure, Miller’s $6.5MM AAV (sixth among running backs) accord looks to be a good value bet. He’ll be a key part in helping Osweiler assimilate in south Texas.
The other key piece on the free agency side of the offense-enhancement blueprint, Allen possesses the starting experience closer to Miller but a track record more in line with Osweiler’s. Excepting a 2014 season during which he missed the Chiefs’ final 15 games, Allen was a primary starter in Kansas City after arriving as Scott Pioli‘s final second-round selection in 2012. He started 13 games as a rookie and 14 a year later, but in neither season was he considered an above-average guard. Conveniently for his value and the sake of the Chiefs’ reeling line last year, Allen strung together his best season in 2015.
Previously relocated to right tackle in 2014 prior to his season-ending elbow malady, Allen began his ’15 campaign on the right edge before Ben Grubbs‘ career-ending neck injury moved him back inside. At left guard, Allen became Kansas City’s best lineman, helping the Chiefs adjust to life without Jamaal Charles. But the 6-foot-4 blocker saw a preseason knee injury limit him to 12 games (eight starts) last season. Nonetheless, the Texans needed a guard with Brandon Brooks in the process of signing with the Eagles, and they made Allen the league’s sixth-highest-paid guard on a per-year basis.
Allen’s $7MM average — which ended up being $1MM less per season than Brooks received from Philadelphia — makes him the Texans’ third $5MM-per-year blocker. He’ll join tackles Duane Brown and Derek Newton as veteran presences expected to open lanes for Miller, only Allen will now have to live up to a deal signed on the strength of barely a half-season’s worth of upper-echelon work. Like Osweiler, Allen showcased potential at the right time.
Houston spent less extravagantly to fortify its swing spots but kept Clark and brought in Bergstrom on notable veteran deals. A 2015 trade acquisition from the Broncos, Clark looks like the Texans’ swing tackle, with former Raider Bergstrom settling in as the interior roving backup. Clark could be called to action in a key capacity, however, as Brown remains on the Active/PUP list.
Clark operated in this capacity for the 2013 Broncos, starting the team’s final 17 games after left-edge bastion Ryan Clady went down that September. He performed adequately that year but couldn’t hold the right tackle job in 2014, helping green-light a trade to Houston. Last season, Clark performed better as a run-blocker than in pass protection during his four games as a starter.
Bergstrom suffered a significant foot injury in 2013 and did not play in ’13 or ’14. A former Raiders third-rounder, he returned as a sub for Rodney Hudson in three starts last season. He could also serve as a possible starting center given the team’s recent trouble at that spot. Nick Martin‘s season-ending ankle injury appears to have opened the door for 2015 UDFA Greg Mancz. But the second-year player faltering could move Bergstrom into a position to play with the first unit.
Regardless of whether or not Bergstrom or Clark ascend into the starting lineup, Houston’s now paying five linemen at least $2.5MM per year. Martin’s injury would have set several teams back worse.

























