PFR Originals - Pro Football Rumors

PFR Originals: 8/21/16 – 8/28/16

By Dallas Robinson | at August 28, 2016 7:29 pm

The original content, analysis, and reporting produced by the PFR staff this week:

In PFR’s new series The Beat, Zach is conducting interviews with beat writers, columnists, and TV personalities about the team that they cover. Zach spoke with five writers last week:
- Will Leitch of Sports on Earth and New York Magazine discussed the Cardinals, Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, and Chandler Jones.
- Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.com talked about the Rams, Jeff Fisher, Les Snead, Jared Goff, and Trumaine Johnson.
- Ryan O’Halloran of the Florida Times-Union covered the Jaguars, Greg Hardy, Malik Jackson, Tashaun Gipson, and Jalen Ramsey.
- Jeff Schudel of the News-Herald and Morning-Journal answered questions abut the Browns, Robert Griffin III, Josh McCown, and Josh Gordon.
- Troy Renck of Denver7 discussed the Broncos, Ronnie Hillman, Trevor Siemian, Mark Sanchez, and Vance Walker.
PFR has continued to go over each team’s rookie class with the assistance of scouting guru Dave-Te Thomas, who has served as a consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades. Dave covered two clubs last week:
- New Orleans Saints
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
PFR has also continued to look back at the offseasons for all 32 clubs, examining the major signings, departures, trades, and other notable offseason events for each team. We covered two clubs over the past week:
- Indianapolis Colts
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After the Bills waived Karlos Williams, I looked at 10 teams that might claim the running back off waivers. Williams surprisingly went unclaimed, but that list still stands as a record of what clubs might look to sign the talented, yet perhaps unmotivated, running back.
The Patriots traded for former No. 6 overall pick Barkevious Mingo this week, and I wondered if New England might be up to something more than simply acquiring talent. Bill Belichick and the rest of the Patriots’ front office has traded for players nearing the end of their contracts before, so they might be grabbing Mingo with an eye towards a compensatory pick in 2018.
PFR was the first to report that veteran cornerback Cary Williams worked out for the Bears recently. Williams, who has spent eight years in the NFL, has seen action with the Ravens, Eagles, Seahawks, and Redskins.

The Beat: ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez On The Rams

By Zachary Links | at August 26, 2016 12:40 pm

With the season fast approaching, we’re chatting with beat writers from around the league to gain insight on each team’s offseason and how those moves will impact the season ahead.

Now, we continue the series by discussing the Rams with the team’s newest beat writer, Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.com. You can follow Alden on Twitter @Alden_Gonzalez and check out his stories here.

Zach Links: For those of us who aren’t in the Los Angeles area – what’s the excitement level like in L.A. for the Rams’ return?

Alden Gonzalez: It’s been about what you would expect for a team returning to a huge media market, and by that I mean it’s been high. They sold 171,000 tickets to their first two preseason games. That is absurd. Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith, who played at Los Angeles Coliseum in Week 2, raved about how loud it was through even the fourth quarter, when all the subs were in. And each open-to-the-public practice I’ve attended has filled up at least one section of bleachers. The novelty will eventually rub off, of course. They’ll have to win pretty quickly in order to maintain attention spans out here.

Zach Links: The Rams are expected to extend coach Jeff Fisher and GM Les Snead before the start of the season. Do you think it’s wise to extend them given that Fisher’s teams have gone 27-36-1 in the last four years?

Alden Gonzalez: Yeah, I do. I know it isn’t the popular opinion, but extending a GM or a coach does not mean that individual cannot eventually get fired. Especially not for a multi-billionaire like Rams owner Stan Kroenke, who would barely flinch at having to eat whatever remains of contracts for Snead or Fisher if such a scenario took place. Snead and Fisher are at the end of their current deals, and it’s hard to operate like that. The Rams have enough newness going on – new quarterback, new city, one of the youngest rosters in the NFL – and it looks like they at least want some stability up top. Snead and Fisher both know the pressure is on to start winning, whether their contracts are extended or not.

Zach Links: How high is the ceiling for Jared Goff? Do you think we’ll see him take over as the starter at some point in 2016?

Alden Gonzalez: I expect him to be the starter at some point in 2016; the only question is when. Barring an uplifting performance in Week 3 of the preseason, though, I do not see him starting the Monday Night Football opener on Sept. 12. He just hasn’t shown enough yet. He needs to be more decisive, he needs to take care of the football and he needs to do a better job of picking up blitzes. All that, in addition to learning to call plays from the huddle and learning to take snaps from under center – two things he really never did at Cal. As far as upside – I think he can be an elite-level passer if he irons those things out. The raw tools are there.

Zach Links: A second franchise tag for Trumaine Johnson would cost the Rams $16MM+ next year. To date, they have been unwilling to pay him like a top NFL cornerback. Do you expect to see Johnson wind up somewhere else in 2017?

Alden Gonzalez: I think they’ll try to keep him. The Rams lost two key pieces in their secondary this offseason, in cornerback Janoris Jenkins and safety Rodney McLeod, and can’t afford to lose Johnson, too. The Rams reportedly offered Jenkins a five-year, $45 million extension before he chose to sign with the Giants. If Johnson has a solid year as the primary corner, I expect the Rams to try to retain him. He’s shown enough.

Zach Links: The Rams picked up their fifth-year option for Tavon Austin, meaning that he’ll earn $12.2MM+ in 2017. Do you have as much confidence in Austin as the Rams’ front office apparently does?

Alden Gonzalez: Last year was something of a breakout season for Austin, who caught for 473 yards and rushed for another 434. Perhaps he hasn’t produced to the level of his forthcoming salary, but the Rams are so desperate for playmakers at wide receiver that they badly needed to retain Austin. His time could be running out, though. Fourth-round pick Pharoh Cooper has very similar attributes and is already locked in as the Rams’ No. 3 receiver.

Zach Links: How do you think the Rams’ first season in Los Angeles will go? What record do you see them finishing with?

Alden Gonzalez: If I had to guess, it’d be 7-9, again. Let’s just go through it real quick. Their defensive line is elite, but, as stated earlier, they lost some key pieces in their secondary and have to fill the void of James Laurinaitis at middle linebacker. That’s a lot of new personnel in the second and third levels. Offensively, Todd Gurley is a stud. But the Rams’ biggest issue last year was their passing game, by far the worst in the league, and they didn’t do much to drastically alter that. Basically the only way that improves is if three rookies – Cooper, quarterback Jared Goff and tight end Tyler Higbee – really step up. And then on top of all that is the fact they play in the same division as the Seahawks and Cardinals, two teams that may have the two deepest rosters in the NFL. The Rams are still young, though. They may be a year away.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images and PFR on Instagram.

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The Hidden Value Of Barkevious Mingo

By Dallas Robinson | at August 26, 2016 11:38 am

The Twitter-verse was quick to decide a winner in yesterday’s trade of linebacker Barkevious Mingo from the Browns to the Patriots, with the new potential outcomes for the former sixth overall pick ranging from Pro Bowler to Hall of Famer. Bill Belichick has certainly earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to wringing out every last bit of talent from an unheralded player, but the New England head coach might be playing an entirely different game altogether: mastering the NFL’s compensatory pick system.

While the league has never disclosed the formula that it uses when calculating which clubs receive compensatory selections, the basics of the process are known. Essentially, comp picks are granted to teams that lose more compensatory players than they sign during the free agent period. Each club can receive a maximum of four comp selections, and while the specifics of the method aren’t made public, analysts such as Nick Korte of Over the Cap have reverse-engineered the exercise to reveal that average salary and play time are key factors.

The Patriots, among other teams, have taken advantage of this arrangement for years by staying out of the big-ticket free agent market. As Bill Barnwell of Grantland explained last January:

By [not signing expensive free agents] and having other teams target their free agents, the Patriots come in line for various compensatory picks from the NFL’s obtuse, black-box system. These picks aren’t tradable (ed. note: comp picks will be tradable beginning in 2017), and no team can receive anything higher than a third-rounder as part of the league’s system, but their value can add up over time. The Patriots have made 25 compensatory selections during Belichick’s time with the team, and the estimated value of those picks — based on their draft slot alone — is roughly between the value of having the first overall pick and the second overall pick. All for not signing free agents.

But Belichick and the rest of the New England front office have also been targeting another ripe area of the NFL’s structure: the trade market, and more specifically, the trade market for players nearing the end of their contracts. Mingo is the latest example, but over the past several years, the Patriots have looked to acquire players who were close to reaching the free agent market, presumably in the hopes that yet another compensatory pick might come their way.

In 2012, the Pats shipped a fourth-round pick to the Buccaneers for a (at the time) disappointing former first-rounder cornerback in Aqib Talib, who had earlier that year been suspended four games for violating the NFL’s PED policy. Given that they also received a seventh-round pick in the swap, the Patriots gave up roughly 3.7 points of approximate value in order to acquire Talib, according to Chase Stuart of Football Perspective’s draft value chart.

17 months later, Talib hit free agency and signed a hefty contract with the Broncos that averaged $9.5MM per season. New England, in turn, netted a third-round compensatory pick, which ended up being the 97th overall selection. That pick, per Stuart’s valuation, was worth 5.5 points of AV, meaning it was roughly 67% more valuable than the package the Patriots originally sent to Tampa Bay for Talib. Without even factoring in the 13 points of AV that Talib posted while in New England, the Pats were able to leverage the comp pick system to their benefit by simply exuding patience and fiscal restraint.

Belichick and the Patriots pulled another heist in October 2014, when they traded a sixth-round pick to the Titans in exchange for linebacker Akeem Ayers and a seventh-round pick. The difference in draft selections ended up being negligible (208 vs. 219), so the Pats only surrendered 0.3 points of AV in the deal. Ayers put up 3 points of AV down the stretch run in New England, and then signed a two-year pact with the Rams in the spring of 2015.

As such, the Patriots are currently projected to pick up the final 2017 compensatory pick, a sixth-rounder that will help defray the original cost of acquiring Ayers. So, at the end of the day, New England will have essentially gotten Ayers’ 2014 production for free. While it’s not quite the massive success that was that Talib trade, it’s a small move that added talent to New England roster at zero cost.

Not every trade with an eye towards a future compensatory pick has worked out for the Patriots. Less than a week after acquiring Ayers in 2014, New England dealt for fellow linebacker Jonathan Casillas, sending a fifth-round pick to the Bucs in exchange for Casillas and a sixth-rounder. While the deal itself was a win — the Pats sacrificed only 0.4 points of AV while Casillas posted 2 AV once coming to New England — the club didn’t reap a comp pick because Casillas’ new deal with the Giants wasn’t costly enough. It’s a similar story for defensive lineman Akiem Hicks, whom the Pats traded for last year — New England won’t get a comp selection thanks to the league’s complicated cancellation charts.

So, back to Mingo: clearly, the former LSU Tiger never lived up to his draft billing. He’s largely become a special teams player, and he’s posted only seven total sacks during his entire career, including none last season (although he did grade as Pro Football Focus’ No. 14 3-4 OLB in 2014). But Mingo wouldn’t have to do all that much to allow the Patriots to get a comp pick in 2018.

Next spring, for example, the last compensatory selection is expected to be awarded to the Steelers for losing Antwon Blake, who signed for less than $2MM annually with the Titans. Mingo wouldn’t have to be a superstar during the upcoming season to get $2MM on the open market. With his draft pedigree, Mingo would probably land a respectable deal if he shows any semblance of competence over the next few months.

Let’s take a look at the possible net gain (or loss) in AV for the Patriots based on a potential comp pick. I used mid-range values for the compensatory picks, and an early playoff pick for the 2017 fifth-rounder sent to Cleveland.

Obviously, it’s extremely unlikely that Mingo would net the Patriots a third-round comp pick; in 2017, those selections are projected to go to the clubs that lost Brock Osweiler, Olivier Vernon, Josh Norman, and others who crossed the $11MM annual salary barrier. It’s hard to imagine Mingo reaching that level even if he somehow posted a breakout campaign, but New England can still defray its cost in acquiring Mingo (and benefit from his 2016 production) if its able to leverage him into a mid-round compensatory pick.

Along with Belichick, Tom Brady‘s presence in the Patriots organization is the single largest contributor to the club’s run of success. But the little things — making smart draft-day swaps, capitalizing on the compensatory system by staying out of free agency, and acquiring players with an eye towards the comp selection process — have also played a significant role in New England’s triumphs over the past 15 years, and the rest of the NFL could stand to take a page out of the Patriots’ book.

Compensatory pick research by Nick Korte of Over the Cap was extremely helpful in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

10 comments New England Patriots PFR Originals Barkevious Mingo

Impact Rookies: New Orleans Saints

By Zachary Links | at August 26, 2016 8:50 am

The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? And, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

First Round – Sheldon Rankins, DT (Louisville, No. 12 overall)

The Saints found a playmaker in Louisville’s Sheldon Rankins. One month ago, I would have told you that Tyler Davison and Nick Fairley should watch their backs as the former Cardinals powerhouse was rapidly pushing for first unit assignments. Unfortunately, Rankins suffered a broken fibula a couple of weeks ago, meaning that we’ll have to wait a little longer to see him take the field. Even though he seems ticketed for IR-DTR, Rankins still appears poised to make an impact in 2016.

Thrust right into action as a 280-pound true freshman, Rankins was a valuable performer for Louisville and “fireplug” at the strong-side defensive tackle position, playing in a 4-3 defensive alignment during his first two campaigns.

With the Cardinals shifting to a 3-4 defense in 2014, Rankins returned to his “roots” at strong-side defensive end, a position where he had compiled 153 tackles (112 solos) with 23.0 sacks and 49.0 additional stops behind the line of scrimmage with 23 quarterback pressures, five fumble recoveries, six forced fumbles, six pass deflections, and three interceptions during his sophomore through senior prep campaigns.

Entering the 2015 season, the Cardinals defender has an appropriate last name. If you consider the consensus analysis from professional scouts, at the strong-side defensive tackle position, it is sort of a “rank and file,” with Rankins the unquestioned top 2016 draft talent, and the rest of the eligible prospects “filing” in behind him.

Rankins is a very disruptive run defender with rare initial quickness. He is at his best shooting gaps and planting ball carriers in the backfield, but he also has long arms (33 inches) for his frame and the upper-body strength to press blockers off him. His ability to penetrate also makes it tough for quarterbacks to step up in the pocket, and he doesn’t have to win with quickness to be an effective pass-rusher, either. He has the violent hands and motor to get to the quarterback when he doesn’t win with his first move.

Rankins is an exceptional competitor with great football character and football/classroom intelligence. He’s a self-motivator, called the team’s “best” practice player by the coaching staff. He has developed into a “film junkie” and easily transfers what he learns in film study to the field. He displays elite first-step quickness and explodes into the backfield, as he can handle either the five- or three-technique chores, thanks to his low center of gravity and explosiveness that makes it tough to establish position against him.

Rankins’ hand usage and upper body strength shows that he has more than enough ability to split double teams. He consistently shoots the gaps to make plays in the backfield and excels at using his hands to control blockers and tracks the ball when moving down the line. He is not the type that will have any issues when trying to anchor when forced into phone booth vs. bigger offensive linemen, as he does a very nice job to split double team action with initial quickness and power.

Second Round – Michael Thomas, WR (Ohio State, No. 47 overall)

Saints coach Sean Payton says that he would want to target Michael Thomas in fantasy football and that’s a sign that he’ll be targeted often by Drew Brees. At the same time, Payton has said that fellow receiver Brandon Coleman has been “pedestrian” for most of training camp. Thomas is technically listed behind Coleman and Willie Snead on the depth chart for now, but we wouldn’t be surprised to see the Ohio State product leapfrog one or both of those players.

There are times when Thomas can simply flat-out fly down the sidelines and once he gets into his route, he builds his acceleration nicely. He is a long strider, but has good quickness off the line and the ability to eat up a defender’s cushion. He shows nice acceleration throughout his routes, but needs to develop an array of moves to set up the defender, even though he does a good job of sinking his hips/pads to come out of his breaks cleanly.

Yes, Thomas takes long strides, but they are quick enough for him to get to his break point, thanks to his ability to lower his pads and drop his weight to generate the burst needed coming out of his plant. He has the speed to run off defenders and has started to develop a good feel for quarterback pressure, doing a solid job of working back to the ball. He rounds up field routes some, but has the body control to adjust and get under the thrown ball without having to break stride.

Thomas can bend and catch the low ball or jump and adjust to the overthrown passes and get to the ball at its high point. He looks natural with his body control to get in position and make plays over his shoulder. He times his leaps well and it is rare to see him lose on a jump ball battle. He has some hip stiffness, but gets good elevation and extension to catch away from his frame. He also does a good job of using his long arms to catch the ball at its high point and despite consistently poor throwing by his quarterbacks, he had just 9-of-88 targeted passes deflected away from him in 2015.

Dave-Te Thomas owns and operates The NFL Draft Report, a service providing insight to league scouting departments for over 40 years. All year round, you can read Thomas’ in-depth reviews of both blue chip prospects and diamonds in the rough by visiting the NFL Draft Report blog.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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The Beat: Ryan O’Halloran On The Jaguars

By Zachary Links | at August 25, 2016 10:08 am

With the season fast approaching, we’re chatting with beat writers from around the league to gain insight on each team’s offseason and how those moves will impact the season ahead.

Now, we continue the series by discussing the Jaguars with Ryan O’Halloran of the The Florida Times-Union. You can follow Ryan on Twitter @ryanohalloran and check out his stories here.

Zach Links: Right now, the Jaguars don’t sound intent on signing Greg Hardy, even though they auditioned him earlier this summer. Do you sense that a change of heart is possible? Or have the Jaguars concluded that Hardy is not worth all of the baggage that comes with signing him?

Ryan O’Halloran: The only way a change of heart is possible is if the Jaguars are equal parts beset by injuries or ineffectiveness at the defensive end spot early in the year. If they were afraid of his baggage, they wouldn’t have brought Hardy in for a visit. This way, they’ve met him, heard his side of things and worked him out so if they need to call him on a Tuesday to sign him and get to town for practice on a Wednesday, they don’t have to do all of the research.

Zach Links: The Jaguars shelled out lots of money for Malik Jackson, a player who has only one season as a full-time starter on his resume. Will the Jaguars come to regret the six-year, $85.5MM deal ($31.5MM guaranteed) or will he prove to be a difference-maker for years to come?

Ryan O’Halloran: More often than not, these gigantic deals become regrettable down the line. That said, the guess here is Jackson will be a difference-maker early in the contract. Against the Jets in the preseason opener, he showed good power by pushing a guard back and impacting Ryan Fitzpatrick’s throwing motion. The Jaguars needed a three-down interior defensive lineman like Jackson and also needed to overpay to get him.

Zach Links: Tashaun Gipson also got a nice payday courtesy of Jacksonville with his five-year, $36MM deal ($12MM guaranteed). Will he help solve the Jags’ woes at safety after their group was among the league’s worst in 2015?

Ryan O’Halloran: Gipson is the key to the Jaguars’ free agent class. The free safety spot has been unsettled since Dave Caldwell/Gus Bradley were hired in January 2013. Dwight Lowery (2013), Josh Evans (2013-15), Winston Guy (2014) and Sergio Brown (2015) have all started there and been unimpressive. Enter Gipson. If he can be the sideline-to-sideline free safety, it will allow the Jaguars’ cornerbacks to play tighter man coverage and allow strong safety Johnathan Cyprien to play closer to the line of scrimmage and better take advantage of his skills (run support, not coverage).

Zach Links: How good can Jalen Ramsey be in the long run? Who does he remind you of?

Ryan O’Halloran: I haven’t seen enough of him to come up with a comparison. It’s tough to say what Ramsey’s ceiling is because he played three positions in three years for Florida State – free safety, slot corner and outside corner. The Jaguars are asking him to play inside and outside corner.

Zach Links: As the 53-man roster deadline approaches, what roster battles should Jaguars fans be keeping an eye on?

Ryan O’Halloran: For a team that went 5-11, it’s surprising that there aren’t more battles going on, but that speaks to the Jaguars’ activity in free agency and the draft. Here are a couple: Left tackle (Kelvin Beachum or Luke Joeckel). Left guard (Joeckel or Tyler Shatley or Mackenzy Bernadeau or Chris Reed). No. 5 receiver (Bryan Walters or Arrelious Benn).

Zach Links: How do you expect 2016 to go for the Jaguars? What record do you think they’ll finish with?

Ryan O’Halloran: This is the most talented team of the Caldwell-Bradley Era, but that won’t mean a playoff berth. I’ve got them with a 7-9 record.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

1 comment Jacksonville Jaguars PFR Originals The Beat Interviews

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

By Connor J. Byrne | at August 24, 2016 6:34 pm

Although the Buccaneers are in the midst of an eight-year playoff drought, they appear to be on the right track after taking significant steps forward in 2015. Not only did Tampa Bay enjoy a four-win improvement and better its point differential by 58 from 2014 to 2015, but it may have found a franchise quarterback in Jameis Winston. The No. 1 overall pick in last year’s draft, Winston acquitted himself well as a rookie and could soon help lead the Buccaneers back to consistent contention for the first time since the early 2000s. In a perfect world for the Bucs, their return to the postseason will come in January 2017. However, given the club’s relatively modest offseason, it’s likely too soon to expect it to push for a playoff spot in the NFC.

Notable signings:

Doug Martin, RB: Five years, $35.75MM. $15MM guaranteed. $5.75MM available via escalators.
J.R. Sweezy, G: Five years, $32.5MM. $14.5MM guaranteed.
Robert Ayers, DL: Three years, $19.5MM. $7.5MM. $1.65MM available via incentives.
Brent Grimes, CB: Two years, $14MM. $7MM guaranteed.
Chris Conte, S: One year, $3MM. $2.5MM guaranteed.
Daryl Smith, LB: One year, $2.5MM. $2MM guaranteed.
Bryan Anger, P: One year, $1.75MM. $750K guaranteed.
Josh Robinson, CB: One year, $2MM. $500K guaranteed.
Keith Tandy, S: Two years, $1.85MM. $250K guaranteed.
Bradley McDougald, CB: One year, $2.553MM. Signed second-round RFA tender.
Russell Shepard, WR: One year, $1.671MM. Signed original-round RFA tender.
A.J. Francis, DT: One year, $600K.

General manager Jason Licht said before free agency that the Buccaneers would be “selective and strategic” in spending money and wouldn’t dole out contracts with the potential to damage their cap over the long haul. Licht was true to his word, as even the most sizable deals he awarded to veterans will be easy to escape in short order if they don’t work out.

In terms of both contract (five years, $35.75MM with $15MM in guarantees) and star power, running back Doug Martin was Tampa Bay’s most notable offseason signing. Given that the Buccaneers decided in May 2015 to decline Martin’s $5.621MM fifth-year option for 2017, they took a financial hit this past winter in committing nearly three times that much in guarantees to their 2012 first-round pick. A year ago, though, Martin was coming off back-to-back miserable seasons that made his sensational rookie campaign look like a fluke. He revisited his first-year form last season, however, finishing second in the NFL in both carries (288) and rushing yards (1,409) en route to first-team All-Pro status.

Considering Martin’s inconsistent track record, betting on the 27-year-old going forward looks like a gamble. In the event he’s unable to live up to his new pact, the Bucs will be able to bail on his contract after the 2017 season, thus mitigating the risk. Should Martin keep serving as a quality option, Tampa Bay will continue to have one of the league’s most well-rounded backfield duos in him and Charles Sims. Led by that tandem, the Buccaneers finished last season first in yards-per-carry average (4.8), fifth in overall rushing (2,162) and 11th in DVOA – up from 31st in 2014.

Among the players who will be responsible for blocking for Martin and Sims is left guard J.R. Sweezy, whom the Buccaneers inked to a five-year, $32.55MM pact with $14.5MM guaranteed in free agency. With a combined $2.5MM in dead money through 2020 left after this year, the Buccaneers will be able to move on from Sweezy without much difficulty if they have buyer’s remorse.

Sweezy spent the first four years of his career in Seattle, where he started in all 46 of his appearances from 2013-15, though Pro Football Focus ranked him just 66th among 81 qualified guards in overall performance last season. Nevertheless, the Bucs are counting on Sweezy as the long-term replacement for the retired Logan Mankins, whom PFF placed 15th in 2015. The Sweezy era in Tampa Bay hasn’t gotten off to an ideal start, though, as the 27-year-old will miss at least the first five weeks of the season with a back injury. In the meantime, the Buccaneers are likely to go with former tackle Kevin Pamphile, a third-year man with four starts on his resume.

On the defensive side, the Buccaneers went into free agency looking to augment a pass rush that finished last season tied for 14th in sacks (38) and 22nd in hurries (91). To help with those issues, they added defensive end Robert Ayers, a former Bronco and Giant who amassed 21 sacks and four forced fumbles in 39 games over the previous three seasons. The soon-to-be 31-year-old Ayers missed four games in 2015, but his production was highly impressive – he picked up a career-high 9.5 sacks and added 18 hurries, placing him between the likes of Chandler Jones (16) and Olivier Vernon (20).

Ayers, who also finished last year as PFF’s eighth-best edge rusher (110 qualifiers), is now on the Buccaneers’ books through 2018. But that doesn’t necessarily have to be the case – in the event of an appreciable decline in output, the Bucs will be able to move on from Ayers either after this season or after next without taking on any dead money. While Tampa Bay would rather see Ayers play well and remain in place for the duration of his three-year, $19.5MM deal, the fact that his contract has no cap ramifications past this season makes it a worthy gamble for the organization.

Joining Ayers in the Buccaneers’ front seven is 13th-year man Daryl Smith, who’s slated to start at strongside linebacker after dividing his first 12 seasons between Jacksonville and Baltimore. Notably, Smith played the first four years of his career under new Buccaneers defensive coordinator Mike Smith, who was the Jaguars’ defensive chief during those seasons. Daryl Smith enjoyed some fine seasons with the Jags, and he was particularly durable as a member of the Ravens. In Baltimore, Smith started in 48 straight games from 2013-15 and racked up 120-plus tackles in each of his three seasons with the club, while also combining for nine sacks and four forced fumbles. PFF was unimpressed with Smith’s play last year, though, as the outlet ranked him 71st among 97 qualified linebackers. The Ravens then cut Smith in early March, but based on his ability to stay on the field and produce, the Bucs made out well in signing the 34-year-old for a fairly meager sum of $2.5MM.

“Not only is he a really good football player, but once you get to know Daryl and the type of guy he is, I think Daryl will be a really good sounding board,” new head coach Dirk Koetter told Scott Reynolds of Pewter Report. “His experience and the players that he’s played with in his career, the things that he’s accomplished in his career, will do nothing but help Lavonte [David] and Kwon [Alexander] advance as players.”

Thanks largely to a weak secondary, Tampa Bay allowed the fourth-most touchdown tosses (31) and the second-highest passer rating (101.2) in the league last season. With that in mind, the club addressed the area over the winter by signing outside help (Brent Grimes and Josh Robinson) and re-upping Chris Conte, Bradley McDougald and Keith Tandy to new deals.

Grimes, a cornerback, is clearly the most accomplished member of the group, having started in 90 of 106 appearances with two teams – the Falcons and Dolphins – and totaling 26 interceptions since entering the league in 2007. Like Daryl Smith, Grimes also worked under Mike Smith previously. Grimes played in Atlanta from 2007-12, and Smith was the Falcons’ head coach in five of those six seasons. The rapport they established with the Falcons helped lead to a reunion in Tampa Bay.

“It’s a big deal for me, because I like the system,’’ Grimes told Roy Cummings of the Tampa Bay Times in March. “And one thing I know about Mike Smith is, he’s a great coach as far as everybody on the field knowing where they need to be and knowing what their assignment is, and he pays great attention to detail.”

After leaving Atlanta, Grimes was an impressive producer in Miami, where he started in all 47 appearances over the previous three seasons and picked off either four or five passes in each of those years (though he did yield a 103.2 passer rating against in 2015). Grimes is now in his age-33 season, so he’s unlikely to resemble a shutdown corner at this juncture. Still, as is the case with their other established veteran signings, the Bucs will have the option of waving goodbye to Grimes with no real harm done at season’s end. Regardless of whether Grimes sees his two-year deal with the Buccaneers through, the organization will hope his outspoken wife, Miko, is capable of avoiding controversy. She already made headlines for the wrong reasons last month, which wasn’t anything new.

While neither Robinson nor Tandy is expected to play a huge role at corner in Tampa Bay’s secondary this year, both Conte and McDougald have realistic chances to occupy the starting safety spots. Conte performed well in 2015, his first season with the Buccaneers, starting 13 of 14 appearances and totaling 79 tackles, three interceptions and two forced fumbles. The ex-Bear’s output also netted him a solid 32nd-place ranking among 88 qualifying safeties at PFF, and the Bucs elected to bring him back on a one-year deal. The team made the same decision with McDougald, whom it signed to a second-round tender for 2016. McDougald led the team’s defensive backs in snap percentage last season (81.2 percent), and he piled up 87 tackles and two interceptions along the way, but the Bucs haven’t been happy with his work this summer. However, with only flawed options behind McDougald, he’s a good bet to open the season as the club’s No. 1 free safety.

Connor Barth, K: Released
Da’Quan Bowers, DL
Bruce Carter, LB: Released
Larry English, DE
T.J. Fatinikun, DE
Mike Jenkins, CB
Jorvorskie Lane, FB
Danny Lansanah, LB
Logan Mankins, G: Retired
Tony McDaniel, DT
Henry Melton, DT
Sterling Moore, CB
Bobby Rainey, RB

After joining the Buccaneers via trade with New England in 2014, Mankins went on to start in all 31 of his appearances in Tampa Bay, where he continued his long run as one of the league’s premier guards. Depending on how Pamphile does filling in for Sweezy, Mankins’ exit could have a highly negative effect on the Buccaneers’ offense for at least the first few weeks of the upcoming season.

Defensively, the Buccaneers didn’t re-sign cornerback Sterling Moore after he started in nine of 16 appearances last season and led their underwhelming group of corners in snap percentage (64.9) and pass breakups (six). With the additions of Grimes and first-round pick Vernon Hargreaves III (more on him in a bit), the departure of the unspectacular Moore – now in Buffalo – shouldn’t serve as much of a hindrance in 2016. It might have made sense for the Bucs to re-sign the 26-year-old as depth, but that didn’t materialize.

In addition to Moore, Tampa Bay let defensive tackle Henry Melton walk after only one year with the team. A Pro Bowler with the Bears in 2012, Melton – who signed with the Broncos on Sunday – is a rotational player nowadays. Nevertheless, Melton partook in all 16 games of the Buccaneers’ games and finished fourth among their defensive linemen in snap percentage (46.5). Melton also logged two sacks and a pair of fumble recoveries, but PFF rated the 29-year-old a below-average 101st among 123 qualified interior D-linemen in overall performance. Without Melton and Tony McDaniel, who participated in over 26 percent of the Buccaneers’ defensive snaps in 2015 and signed with the Seahawks last week, the Bucs’ depth (or lack thereof) at D-tackle could be an issue. Of course, the anchor in the middle – Gerald McCoy – remains in place, and he helped Tampa Bay to the second-best YPC against (3.4) in the league last season.

Moving over to special teams, kicker Connor Barth converted a respectable 23 of 28 field goals and hit 25 of 26 extra points in 2015, but the Buccaneers went for what they hope will be a major upgrade in the draft and subsequently gave Barth his pink slip. Barth, who’s now with the NFC South rival Saints, made 85 percent of his field goals (91 of 108) in two different stints with the Bucs.

Trades:

Acquired a 2016 first-round pick (No. 11) and a 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 106) from the Bears in exchange for a 2016 first-round pick (No. 9).
Acquired a 2016 second-round pick (No. 59) from the Chiefs in exchange for a 2016 third-round pick (No. 74) and a 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 106).

Draft picks:

1-11: Vernon Hargreaves III, CB (Florida)
2-39: Noah Spence, DE (Eastern Kentucky)
2-59: Roberto Aguayo, K (Florida State)
4-108: Ryan Smith, DB (North Carolina Central)
5-148: Caleb Benenoch, T (UCLA)
6-183: Devante Bond, LB (Oklahoma)
6-197: Dan Vitale, FB (Northwestern)

Not only did the Buccaneers gain a fourth-round pick when they made a trade with the Bears and moved down two spots in the first round of this year’s draft, but they also ended up with ex-Florida cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III at No. 11 overall. So far, the decision is paying dividends. In the Buccaneers’ 27-21 preseason win over Jacksonville on Saturday, the Jags targeted Hargreaves three times and failed to complete a pass – unless completions to Hargreaves count. The 21-year-old intercepted two passes and hasn’t yet allowed a completion in two exhibition games. As a result, Hargreaves is PFF’s highest-rated preseason corner thus far.

In assessing Hargreaves, who picked off 10 passes in three seasons with the Gators, PFR scouting guru Dave-Te Thoma s wrote: “He will hustle and run down a ball carrier from across the field and seems to enjoy the contact in run force. He plays at full speed and few players in the game of football can match his quickness. He competes for the ball with no regard for his body.”

Twenty-eight picks after grabbing Hargreaves, the Buccaneers chose former Eastern Kentucky edge rusher Noah Spence, who drew first-round buzz before the draft. Spence fell thanks in part to character concerns, though, as multiple failed drug tests at Ohio State caused the Big Ten to declare him permanently ineligible in 2014. Spence then transferred to Eastern Kentucky, where he recorded 11.5 sacks last year. In 2013, his second and final season as a Buckeye, Spence accumulated 14 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks. For the time being, the Bucs will use Spence in pass-rushing situations, Smith told Jenna Laine of ESPN.com earlier this month.

“We’re going to have to be very careful about what we’re going to ask him to do early on in the season,” said Smith.

On Spence, Thomas offered: “Despite his boneheaded mistakes off the field, Spence is an instinctive player, but not the type that will out-think himself on the field. He is a quick reactor to action in front of him and easily picks things up well, showing no problem taking plays from the chalkboard to the playing field. There should be no issues with him digesting a complicated playbook. Spence is reliable, works hard in the weight room, and is a self-starter. He takes well to hard coaching and is the unquestioned leader of the defensive unit. For his age, he had an advanced knack for reading the quarterback well, as it is rare to see him fooled by misdirection or play action.”

Not content to end up with just Spence in the second round, Licht swung a trade that sent a third- and fourth-rounder (Nos. 74 and 106) to the Chiefs for the 59th pick. In making that move, Licht paid a high price – 141 cents on the dollar – per Chase Stuart of Football Perspective. To Stuart (and most others), the move became that much more questionable when Licht used the selection on former Florida State kicker Roberto Aguayo, given that specialists aren’t exactly in demand that early. Licht then revealed in May that the Buccaneers placed a first-round grade on Aguayo, whose pro career has begun inauspiciously.

After missing an extra point in Tampa Bay’s preseason opener, Aguayo failed to convert two of his four field goal attempts in their second game over the weekend. There are now questions as to whether the Bucs will bring in a second kicker to compete with Aguayo, who’s coming off three straight first-team All-America seasons with the Seminoles.

Extensions and Restructures:

Demar Dotson, T: Extended through 2019. Three years, $16.5MM. $4.5MM guaranteed.

Earlier this month, the Buccaneers locked up their longest-tenured player, right tackle Demar Dotson, with a three-year extension that runs through the 2019 season. Dotson, who otherwise would’ve been a free agent next winter, joined the club in 2009 as an undrafted free agent from Southern Mississippi. After Dotson didn’t see much action during the first couple years of his career, he became a prominent member of the Buccaneers’ offense in 2012 and has since started 50 of 54 appearances. Only six of those appearances and three starts came during an injury-truncated 2015 for Dotson, who missed 10 games as a result of a sprained MCL. Healthy again, the soon-to-be 31-year-old is primed to start on the right side of the team’s line.

“He’s been a cornerstone player for us and our extensions that we’ve done here recently with Gerald (McCoy), Lavonte (David) and Doug (Martin), these guys all have one thing in common. They work their (tails) off and are very consistent players, very good players in the league, and you know what you’re getting out of them every day on the playing field, on the practice field,” Licht said of Dotson.

Other:

Promoted Dirk Koetter to head coach to replace Lovie Smith.
Hired Todd Monken as offensive coordinator to replace Dirk Koetter.
Hired Mike Smith as defensive coordinator to replace Leslie Frazier.
Hired Nate Kaczor as special teams coordinator to replace Kevin O’Dea.
Hired Broncos national scout John Spytek as director of player personnel to replace Jon Robinson, who left to become Titans’ GM.
Learned DE George Johnson would miss the season after fracturing his hip.
Learned G J.R. Sweezy is expected to be placed on the PUP list.
Signed 19 undrafted rookie free agents following the draft.

When the Buccaneers were 6-6 and in the playoff hunt last December, a January coaching change seemed out of the question. However, Year 2 of the Lovie Smith era concluded with four straight losses – three of which were one-score outcomes – and that was enough for Bucs brass to make a change. Part of the reason they moved on from Smith, perhaps, is that they didn’t want to let his offensive coordinator, Koetter, get away. With Koetter garnering head coaching consideration from other organizations, the Buccaneers tabbed him to succeed Smith. The 57-year-old Koetter worked as the Buccaneers’ O-coordinator for just one season, but the unit made obvious strides on his watch. After finishing 29th, 30th and 32nd in points, yardage and DVOA in 2014, the Bucs rose to 20th, fifth and 18th in those three categories last season.

Koetter, whose only previous head coaching experience came in the college ranks (he went a combined 66-44 at Boise State and Arizona State from 1998-2008), also helped guide Winston to a terrific showing. Winston started all 16 of the Bucs’ games, tossed 22 touchdowns against 15 interceptions, and became the youngest QB in NFL history (21) to eclipse the 4,000-yard mark.

Although Koetter is still calling the offensive plays in Tampa, he hired coordinator Todd Monken to assist him on that side of the ball. Like Koetter, Monken has experience as a college head coach, having spent the last three seasons in that role with Southern Mississippi. Monken’s familiarity with Koetter undoubtedly helped lead to his hiring — the two were on the Jaguars’ staff from 2007-10 (Koetter was the offensive coordinator, Monken the receivers coach).

Koetter also has prior ties to Smith, who hired Koetter to run the Falcons’ offense during the final three years of Smith’s tenure. The two were also on Jacksonville’s staff together in 2007. Smith is tasked with improving a defense that ended last season as a top 10 unit in terms of yardage allowed under predecessor Leslie Frazier, though that belied an 18th-place DVOA ranking and a 26th-place finish in points allowed.

End George Johnson was supposed to figure into Smith’s defense this year, but he went on season-ending injured reserve with a fractured hip earlier this month. Johnson participated in 39.4 percent of the Buccaneers’ defensive snaps in 2015 and racked up a pair of forced fumbles, but he failed to record a sack. Difficulty getting to the quarterback has been an issue at times for Johnson, who has gone without a sack in three of the four seasons in which he has seen action. In 2014, though, Johnson took down enemy QBs six times as a member of the Lions.

Top 10 cap hits for 2016:

Gerald McCoy, DT: $13,000,000
Vincent Jackson, WR: $12,209,778
Lavonte David, LB: $10,000,000
J.R. Sweezy, G: $9,500,000
Doug Martin, RB: $8,000,000
Brent Grimes, CB: $8,000,000
Robert Ayers, DL: $7,750,000
Alterraun Verner, CB: $6,750,000
Jameis Winston, QB: $5,761,654
Gosder Cherilus, T: $4,500,000

The Buccaneers did an adequate job of improving their roster during the offseason, and they did well in finding upgrades whose contracts won’t hurt them in the future. While the moves the Bucs made likely won’t be enough to help them break their playoff drought, further progress from Winston and a finish around the .500 mark would constitute a successful campaign. It would be unrealistic to expect more from a team that went 2-14 two years ago, has a rookie head coach and shares a division with the reigning NFC champion Panthers.

Information from Over the Cap, Spotrac, and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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The Beat: Jeff Schudel On The Browns

By Zachary Links | at August 24, 2016 9:40 am

With the season fast approaching, we’re chatting with beat writers from around the league to gain insight on each team’s offseason and how those moves will impact the season ahead.

Now, we continue the series by discussing the Browns with Jeff Schudel of the The News-Herald and Morning-Journal. You can follow Jeff on Twitter @jsproinsider and check out his stories here.

Zach Links: As expected, the Browns named RGIII as their starting quarterback this week. What are your expectations for him? Can he recapture some of the magic he showed early on in Washington?

Jeff Schudel; I do have high expectations for RG3, but that might be a relative term. He will become the Browns 25th starting quarterback in 18 years when he takes the first snap against the Eagles on Sept. 11, so if he manages to throw more touchdown passes than interceptions and win five or six games he’ll be a success. Griffin has surprised me with his running. I don’t expect him to run as much as he did in 2012 when he was a rookie with the Redskins, but Hue Jackson will design runs for him.

Zach Links: Speaking of the quarterback position, what do you think the Browns should do with Josh McCown? Should they continue to hold out for a third- or fourth-round pick from the Cowboys in a potential trade?

Jeff Schudel; In my opinion the Browns should not take less than a third for McCown. That is probably too steep for a quarterback that was 2-17 over the last two seasons, but he is worth more to the Browns as a backup than a fourth-round pick would be. The odds of RG3 making it through 16 games behind this offensive line are slim. Rookie Cody Kessler isn’t ready to play.

Zach Links: Are you optimistic about Josh Gordon‘s long-term prospects? Do you think he’ll get his off-the-field affairs in order and focus his full attention on football going forward?

Jeff Schudel; I do have faith in Josh Gordon. He has a strong support group within the Browns and he seems to be hanging around the right people. He is a smart young man who has done dumb things in the past. I think this is critical for Gordon’s success: He is suspended for the first four games of the regular season, but he can be around the team in meetings, the weight room and all activities except practice and games. It seems to me players with substance abuse problems have a much better chance of success if they can be around their support group.

Gordon knows this is his last chance. He will never be reinstated if he is suspended again. I am not speaking for the Browns, but one more strike and I could not imagine them giving him another chance. Goodell would, I presume, likely make their opinion irrelevant.

Zach Links: How will Desmond Bryant‘s absence affect Cleveland’s pass-rush?

Jeff Schudel; The Browns are thin behind Desmond Bryant. John Hughes is likely to end up with his job, but Hughes was absent from training camp from Aug. 2-16 for personal reasons involving a family member. He says he is back for good. Bryant had only six sacks, but that led the team in 2015. The Browns will have to get more from outside linebacker Paul Kruger (2.5 sacks last year) to minimize Bryant’s loss.

Zach Links: Out of the Browns’ 14 rookies, which ones are you especially excited about?

Jeff Schudel; Corey Coleman is going to be a productive player, but as the 15th overall pick and the first receiver off the board he should be. He is fast, tracks the ball well and can run after the catch.

Two later picks could also make an impact. Carl Nassib, the defensive end from Penn State picked in the third round, 65th overall, led the nation with 17.5 sacks past year. He has shown in preseason he can get to the quarterback in the NFL. He is playing against NFL backups for now and will have to prove he can succeed against front-line offensive tackles to get more playing time.

Rashard Higgins, a fifth-round receiver taken with the 172nd pick from Colorado State, could be a move-the-chains receiver. He runs precise routes, fights through traffic, and can catch the ball in a crowd.

Zach Links: What differences have you already noticed in Cleveland with Jackson at the helm?

Jeff Schudel; It is impossible not to notice a difference with Jackson running the show. He is more than an administrator. He actually coaches players if they aren’t doing something correctly. Players have bought into his coaching style.

I think it is significant that Jackson hired Ray Horton as defensive coordinator. Horton has credentials and experience to be a head coach. To me that means Jackson has enough confidence in himself that he isn’t afraid an assistant will take his job.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason In Review: Indianapolis Colts

By Dallas Robinson | at August 23, 2016 8:53 pm

Many NFL observers had not only penciled in the Colts for a lengthy postseason run, but projected Andrew Luck to be among the league’s top contenders for the MVP award. Instead, Luck dealt with injuries (and wasn’t all that productive when he was on the field), and though backup Matt Hasselbeck played well at times, the offense couldn’t handle the loss of its starting quarterback, and finished 30th in DVOA. Indy’s defense was surprisingly competent (13th in DVOA), but that performance wasn’t enough to help the club finish better than 8-8, second in the AFC South.