Top 3 Offseason Needs: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who failed to live up to preseason expectations and finished with a 5-11 record.

Depth Chart (via Roster Resource)

Pending Free Agents:

Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:

  1. Mike Evans, WR: $13,258,000
  2. Gerald McCoy, DT: $12,750,000
  3. DeSean Jackson, WR: $11,000,000
  4. Lavonte David, LB: $8,750,000
  5. Jameis Winston, QB: $8,066,315
  6. Doug Martin, RB: $6,750,000
  7. William Gholston, DE: $6,500,000
  8. Robert Ayers, DE: $6,000,000
  9. J.R. Sweezy, G: $5,875,000
  10. Chris Baker, DT: $4,875,000

Other:

  • Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $61,478,282
  • Seventh pick in draft
  • Must exercise or decline 2019 fifth-year option for QB Jameis Winston

Three Needs:

1) Find a new running back: It’s difficult to overstate just how poor Doug Martin played in 2017. Among the 36 running backs who handled at least 125 carries last season, Martin finished dead last with a paltry 2.94 yards per rush. Pro Football Focus ranked Martin as the No. 53 RB among 58 qualifiers, while the 29-year-old placed last among backs in Football Outsiders‘ DVOA metric, which measures value on a per-play basis. Martin caught only nine passes a year ago, but even on a per-pass basis, he was well below-average, as FO ranked him 25th in receiving DVOA among the 30 RBs who managed fewer than 25 targets.Doug Martin (vertical)

Martin took the most touches of any Buccaneers running back in 2017, but given that he only started eight games, he wasn’t the only problem in the Tampa Bay backfield. Peyton Barber handled 108 carries but finished with only 3.9 yards per carry — he’s an exclusive rights free agent, and if he returns next season, it could be as a backup. Jacquizz Rodgers may be a candidate for release after averaging 3.8 yards per touch, and Charles Sims — the club’s main receiving back — is a free agent and seems unlikely to be re-signed.

Tampa Bay will essentially start with a blank slate at the running back position, but the 2018 free agent market is well-stocked with potential upgrades. Le’Veon Bell is clearly the top available back, but it seems inconceivable that he won’t return to the Steelers next season (if not via a long-term deal, then under the franchise tag). If Bell somehow does finagle his way out of Pittsburgh, though, the Buccaneers would be a prime landing spot. Not only does Tampa have the cap space to pay Bell what he wants, but the club could immediately make him the centerpiece of its offense.

If and when Bell re-signs with the Steelers, the Buccaneers will still have plenty of options at running back. Aside from Bell, Carlos Hyde may be the most talented runner on the free agent market, although injuries and a lack of talent on the 49ers’ roster have limited his overall production. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay could afford the $6MM annual salary that Dion Lewis is reportedly searching for, while Isaiah Crowell could also make sense as an every-down back.Rex Burkhead (Vertical)

Another strategy the Bucs could pursue would involve installing the 225-pound Barber as their early-down bruiser while inking a running back who specializes in the passing game. Lewis would fit that bill (and add much more), but fellow Patriot Rex Burkhead could potentially serve as an excellent receiver for Jameis Winston. Burkhead ranked first among pending free agent running backs in FO’s receiving DYAR and DVOA, and shouldn’t be all that expensive given that he secured only a one-year deal in 2017. The Vikings’ Jerick McKinnon — essentially a souped-up version of the incumbent Sims — could also fill a receiving role.

In the draft, Penn State’s Saquon Barkley is the clear-cut top available back, but it’s unclear if he’ll fall to the seventh overall pick. If he does, the Buccaneers would likely jump on him, although the club has enough other needs that it’s not a guarantee. Instead, Tampa Bay could hold off on adding a young running back until the second round, when other players such as Ronald Jones (USC), Sony Michel (Georgia), and Derrius Guice (LSU) may be available. Jones, in particular, would be a solid fit in an outside zone running scheme, as Benjamin Solak of NDT Scouting recently detailed.

2) Bolster the pass rush: No team struggled more to get after opposing quarterbacks in 2017 than did the Buccaneers. Tampa finished dead last in sacks (22), adjusted sack rate, and pressure rate, and just this week fired defensive line coach Jay Hayes. While there’s no word yet as to who will replace Hayes, a new coach should be leading a unit that undergoes a significant revamp this offseason.Robert Ayers (Vertical)

The first thing the Buccaneers need to do is trim the fat on their defensive line. We’ll focus primarily on edge rushers given that Tampa Bay is set in the middle with Gerald McCoy and Chris Baker (although neither is a spring chicken). Veteran Robert Ayers posted the best season of his career in 2017 and is under contract for one more year, while former second-rounder Noah Spence will return from injury in 2018. Ayers and Spence should be in the Bucs’ plans for next season, but nearly every other pass rusher should be shown the door.

Ryan Russell somehow managed to play the second-most snaps of any Tampa Bay edge defender a year ago, but now that he’s a restricted free agent, I’m not sure he should even be offered an original round tender (which would pay him in the neighborhood of $1.9MM). Will Clarke is a failed former Day 2 draft pick who followed Hayes from Cincinnati; he’s a free agent now and shouldn’t be retained. And William Gholston was signed to a “$27.5MM deal” last offseason that — thanks to Tampa Bay’s contract strategy — is really worth $7MM. He can be released with no penalty this spring.Read more

Bucs, Mike Evans Haven’t Discussed Deal

Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans is entering his walk year and his agent says the two sides have yet to discuss a new contract, as Trevor Sikkema of Pewter Report writes. It’s not clear when the two sides will engage in talks, but Evans’ rep says he wants to move forward with Tampa Bay. Mike Evans (Vertical)

We’re not doing any negotiating. We’re just going to wait and play it out,” agent Deryk Gilmore said. “We think that the Buccaneers are a great organization. We feel that they really care about Mike; they care about the direction of the franchise and where it’s going. … He’s under contract so what we like to do is let him finish up. We think [Evans’ stats and records] will speak for itself, and when it comes time to do the deal I think his deal will be in-line with what we plan.”

At some point this offseason, the Bucs are expected to come to the table with an offer. Evans has topped 1,000 yards receiving has graded out as a top-20 player at his position in each of his four NFL seasons. In 2016, when the Bucs’ offense was clicking, Evans raised the bar with career highs in catches (96), receiving yards (1,321), and touchdowns (12, tied with 2014’s total) en route to his first ever Pro Bowl nod.

It’s possible that the Bucs are looking to get through free agency and the draft before turning their attention to Evans’ contract. For now, they have No. 13 under contract with a $13.26MM cap hit. If they can’t come to terms on a long-term deal, the Buccaneers can maintain control over Evans in 2019 with the franchise tag.

Latest On Bucs' Coaching Staff

  • As we learned this morning, the Buccaneers fired defensive line coach Jay Hayes, and Roy Cummings of Florida Football Insiders suggests that more pink slips could be coming for Tampa Bay’s coaching assistants, as the team has still not formally announced its 2018 coaching staff.
  • Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times believes the Buccaneers could turn to Brentson Buckner as a potential replacement for Hayes (Twitter link). Buckner served as the Cardinals’ defensive line coach from 2013-17, and Arizona’s DL was generally quite successful under Buckner’s watch. Tampa Bay GM Jason Licht was the Cardinals’ VP of player personnel in 2013, so he has some personal familiarity with Buckner.

Buccaneers Fire DL Coach Jay Hayes

The Buccaneers, despite some rumblings that they would fire head coach Dirk Koetter at the end of the 2017 campaign, have actually kept their entire coaching staff intact. Until now.

Jay Hayes (vertical)

Jenna Laine of ESPN.com reports that Tampa Bay has fired defensive line coach Jay Hayes, which comes over a month after Koetter said he did not anticipate making any changes to his staff. It is unclear why he opted to reverse course at this point, but Hayes’ unit certainly left much to be desired during his two-year tenure with the club.

Over the 2016-17 seasons, the Bucs’ defense registered 60 sacks, tied for 27th in the NFL, and in 2017, the team finished with 22 sacks, last in the league. Tampa Bay yielded 378.1 yards per game to opposing offenses in 2017, which was also last in the league.

Of course, the defensive line is not entirely to blame for that performance, especially given that Hayes’ group was hit by several significant injuries in 2017. But no one can really fault the Bucs for making this move, even though the timing of it is somewhat curious. The only other change the team made to its coaching staff this offseason has been promoting Skyler Fulton to wide receivers coach.

Hayes previously served as the Bengals’ DL coach for 13 seasons and was credited for the development of players like Geno Atkins, Michael Johnson, and Carlos Dunlap.

Updated 2018 NFL Draft Order

With the Super Bowl in the books, we now know the draft order for the entire first round of the 2018 draft. Here’s the rundown:

1. Cleveland Browns (0-16)

2. New York Giants (3-13)

3. Indianapolis Colts (4-12)

4. Cleveland Browns (via the 4-12 Houston Texans)

5. Denver Broncos (5-11)

6. New York Jets (5-11)

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11)

8. Chicago Bears (5-11)

T-9. Oakland Raiders (6-10)

T-9. San Francisco 49ers (6-10) (Note: The Raiders and 49ers have identical records and the same strength of schedule. The tie will be broken by a coin flip with the winner getting pick No. 9 and the other club receiving the No. 10 pick.)

11. Miami Dolphins (6-10)

12. Cincinnati Bengals (7-9)

13. Washington Redskins (7-9)

14. Green Bay Packers (7-9)

15. Arizona Cardinals (8-8)

16. Baltimore Ravens (9-7)

17. Los Angeles Chargers (9-7)

18. Seattle Seahawks (9-7)

19. Dallas Cowboys (9-7)

20. Detroit Lions (9-7)

21. Buffalo Bills (9-7)

22. Buffalo Bills (via the 10-6 Kansas City Chiefs)

23. Los Angeles Rams (11-5)

24. Carolina Panthers (11-5)

25. Tennessee Titans (9-7)

26. Atlanta Falcons (10-6)

27. New Orleans Saints (11-5)

28. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3)

29. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)

30. Minnesota Vikings (13-3)

31. New England Patriots (13-3)

32. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)

2018 Proven Performance Escalators

According to the NFL’s contractual bargaining agreement, players drafted in rounds three though seven are entitled to raises during the fourth year of their respective rookie contracts. The pay bumps are tied to playing time — a player must have played in 35% of his team’s offensive or defensive snaps in two of his first three seasons, or averaged 35% playing time cumulatively during that period.Jay Ajayi (Vertical)

If one of these thresholds is met, the player’s salary is elevated to the level of that year’s lowest restricted free agent tender — that figure should be around $1.908MM in 2018. Players selected in the first or second round, undrafted free agents, and kickers/punters are ineligible for the proven performance escalator.

Here are the players who will see their salary rise in 2018 courtesy of the proven performance escalator:

49ers: Trent Brown, T; Eli Harold, LB

Bears: Adrian Amos, S

Bengals: Tyler Kroft, TE; Josh Shaw, DB

Bills: John Miller, G

Broncos: Max Garcia, G; Trevor Siemian, QB

Browns: Duke Johnson, RB

Buccaneers: Kwon Alexander, LB

Cardinals: David Johnson, RB; J.J. Nelson, WR

Chargers: Kyle Emanuel, LB

Chiefs: Chris Conley, WR; Steven Nelson, CB

Colts: Henry Anderson, DE; Mark Glowinski, G; Denzelle Good, OL

Dolphins: Bobby McCain, CB

Eagles: Jay Ajayi, RB; Jordan Hicks, LB

Falcons: Grady Jarrett, DT

Jaguars: A.J. Cann, OL

Lions: Quandre Diggs, CB

Packers: Jake Ryan, LB

Panthers: Daryl Williams, T

Patriots: Trey Flowers, DE; Shaq Mason, G

Raiders: Clive Walford, TE

Rams: Jamon Brown, G

Ravens: Za’Darius Smith, LB

Redskins: T.J. Clemmings, OL; Jamison Crowder, WR

Saints: Tyeler Davison, DT

Seahawks: Tyler Lockett, WR

Steelers: Jesse James, TE

Vikings: Stefon Diggs, WR; Danielle Hunter, DE

OverTheCap.com was essential in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. 

Todd Monken's Job Description Changes

Todd Monken became the Buccaneers‘ offensive coordinator once Dirk Koetter rose to the HC spot, but he will now have more time to concentrate on the offense from a macro sense. The Bucs announced the promotion of Skyler Fulton to the role of wide receivers coach. Monken had served in a dual capacity of overseeing Tampa Bay’s wideouts and running the offense the past two years. This staff adjustment, however, won’t result in Monken calling plays, with Charean Williams of Pro Football Talk noting Koetter will still do that next season.

Fulton joined the Bucs’ staff during the 2016 preseason as part of the Bill Walsh Diversity Coaching Fellowship. The 35-year-old assistant played wide receiver under Koetter at Arizona State before a short NFL career. He received his first assistant-coaching opportunity in instructing running backs at Grossmont College, a community college in California, in 2015.

Updated 2018 NFL Draft Order

With the conference championship games in the books, we now know the draft order for 30 of the first round’s 32 picks. Here’s the rundown:

1. Cleveland Browns (0-16)

2. New York Giants (3-13)

3. Indianapolis Colts (4-12)

4. Cleveland Browns (via the 4-12 Houston Texans)

5. Denver Broncos (5-11)

6. New York Jets (5-11)

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11)

8. Chicago Bears (5-11)

T-9. Oakland Raiders (6-10)

T-9. San Francisco 49ers (6-10) (Note: The Raiders and 49ers have identical records and the same strength of schedule. The tie will be broken by a coin flip with the winner getting pick No. 9 and the other club receiving the No. 10 pick.)

11. Miami Dolphins (6-10)

12. Cincinnati Bengals (7-9)

13. Washington Redskins (7-9)

14. Green Bay Packers (7-9)

15. Arizona Cardinals (8-8)

16. Baltimore Ravens (9-7)

17. Los Angeles Chargers (9-7)

18. Seattle Seahawks (9-7)

19. Dallas Cowboys (9-7)

20. Detroit Lions (9-7)

21. Buffalo Bills (9-7)

22. Buffalo Bills (via the 10-6 Kansas City Chiefs)

23. Los Angeles Rams (11-5)

24. Carolina Panthers (11-5)

25. Tennessee Titans (9-7)

26. Atlanta Falcons (10-6)

27. New Orleans Saints (11-5)

28. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3)

29. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)

30. Minnesota Vikings (13-3)

31. (New England Patriots (13-3) or Philadelphia Eagles (13-3))

32. (New England Patriots (13-3) or Philadelphia Eagles (13-3))

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