Author: Ely Allen

As usual, those “way too early” mock drafts and prospect rankings are looking drastically different six months later. Many of those players projected to take huge leaps to first-round stardom have been humbled at the college level, while relative unknowns have begun to make their case for being selected in the top 32.

Our first look into the 2026 QB options focused mostly on existing tape, though a few inexperienced options were expected to shine. The one everyone will recognize is Longhorns passer Arch Manning. The NFL legacy got off to a rough start in his first season as a full-time starter, completing 55.29 percent of his passes for six touchdowns and three interceptions against Ohio State, San Jose State, and UTEP. He’s since put up some impressive performances against Sam Houston, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt but not without a few duds at Florida and Kentucky peppered in. As a result, scouting opinions on Manning as the potential QB1 of the class have seemingly cooled.

Scouts hoped LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier would continue to put up big numbers while, preferably, lowering his propensity for throwing interceptions; he had a touchdown:interception ratio of 11:7 before becoming a starter and a ratio of 29:12 last year. Nussmeier has failed to fulfill such hopes, going 2-4 in SEC play while throwing seven touchdowns and four interceptions in those games. This past weekend, Nussmeier was benched against the rival Crimson Tide in hopes that Mississippi State transfer Michael Van Buren Jr. could breathe new life into a struggling offense.

In Happy Valley, once promising five-star recruit Drew Allar has also faced a brutal 2025 campaign that could really harm his draft stock. Once lauded as the second quarterback in FBS history to throw for 25 or more touchdowns and two or fewer interceptions, albeit while only completing 59.9 percent of his passes, scouts hoped Allar would finally be able to put it all together with accuracy, production, and strong performances against difficult competition. Allar unfortunately wasn’t able to deliver on these hopes before suffering a season-ending ankle injury.

Of the other college QBs that we mentioned back then, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik has similarly regressed along with his struggling Tigers. South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers has looked like a shell of himself since sustaining an injury in a home loss to Vanderbilt. Nico Iamaleava‘s transfer to UCLA has not resulted in dividends equal to his NIL deal. At Ole Miss, Jaxson Dart‘s successor Austin Simmons lost the starting job to Ferris State transfer Trinidad Chambliss. Lastly, Oklahoma’s John Mateer hasn’t quite captured the magic his fellow Washington State transfer Cam Ward did last year at Miami.

The quarterbacks who have mostly delivered on the expectations placed on them thus far have been the Big 12 trio of Sam Leavitt at Arizona State, Sawyer Robinson at Baylor, and Avery Johnson at Kansas State and Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza. In fact, Mendoza hasn’t just met expectations under Curt Cignetti, he’s exceeded them.

According to ESPN’s Matt Miller, Mendoza has “clearly established himself as the top quarterback in the 2026 class.” Miller cites the redshirt junior’s pocket poise, arm talent, and ability to make big plays in crucial moments. Jordan Reid, Miller’s peer at ESPN, tried to temper Miller’s praise based on competition that could still push Mendoza for QB1 honors, but he also lauded the Hoosier’s ideal size and experience as a starter.

The two prospects with potential to unseat Mendoza are redshirt sophomore Dante Moore at Oregon and redshirt junior Ty Simpson at Alabama. Both passers are shorter and lighter than Mendoza. Moore is getting his first starting opportunity since getting benched as a true freshman starter at UCLA in 2023. Simpson’s only starts have come in the nine games he’s played this season.

Simpson’s inexperience as a starter doesn’t show in his gameplay, though. Completing 66.9 percent of his passes for over 273 yards per game and 21 touchdowns to only one interception, Simpson has shown impressive processing and decision-making abilities in an extremely small sample size. Moore’s play isn’t quite so clean, as his inexperience still shows here and there, but he’s made significant leaps since his days as a Bruin.

Dane Brugler of The Athletic released some midseason draft rankings yesterday, listing only four quarterbacks in his top 50 prospects: Simpson at No. 2, Mendoza at No. 7, Moore at No. 12, and Sellers at No. 15. The lack of starting experience of Simpson and the continued need for development of Moore and Sellers have many believing an additional year of college could be best for all three.

Brugler’s analysis of Mendoza seems to mirror the ambivalence of the ESPN duo as he claims “NFL teams are split on (Mendoza’s) ceiling as a pro.” The 22-year-old has made a significant leap in his move from Berkeley to Bloomington, but some believe he may not develop much further than he already has under Cignetti. That being said, those scouts are still “very encouraged by his floor,” as Brugler puts it, thanks to a high football IQ, strong accuracy, and an even-keeled demeanor.

There is still a month left of college football before bowls and playoff games begin, so there’s still plenty of time for several of the above-mentioned passers to stake their claim as the most-deserving arm. At the moment, though, there are at least some teams who have Mendoza at the top of a currently muddy QB board.