Justin Houston Aiming To Top Watt?
“Kansas City Chiefs outside linebacker Justin Houston’s career year is happening at the right time, as he is in the final year of a four-year rookie contract that pays $1.406 million this season,” says NFP’s Joel Corry, who goes into detail forecasting the premier pass rusher’s contractual future. Corry’s main points:
- First the stats. . .Houston is leading the NFL with 12 sacks through eight games (a pace that would break the all-time single-season record), ranks as Pro Football Focus’ top-rated 3-4 outside linebacker and is tied for second in the league with 44 pressures (combined sacks, QB hurries and QB hits).
- Signing Houston to a long-term deal is a priority for the Chiefs, but multiple reports indicate the team and player (agent Joel Segal) are far apart on terms.
- Segal will likely seek to top Texans defensive end and reigning defensive player of the year J.J. Watt‘s record-setting, six-year, $100MM mega deal ($51.88 guaranteed), which is the gold standard for defensive players right now. Watt is the NFL’s highest-paid non-quarterback based on average yearly salary ($16.67MM).
- While Houston’s deal is up, he won’t be able to enjoy the fruits of unrestricted free agency because the Chiefs can (will) franchise tag him twice if need be. Corry estimates the tag number will be approximately $13.25MM in 2015 and $15.9MM in 2016.
- One “major obstacle” to a deal could be the team’s insistence on quarterback Alex Smith, who signed a four-year, $68MM deal ($45MM guaranteed) in August, remaining the highest-paid Chief. This is typical salary cap structure, according to Corry, who sites the example of Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford‘s place atop Detroit’s salary hierarchy even though receiver Calvin Johnson is widely regarded as a better overall player.
- In summation, “Based on the changing market conditions for elite defensive players and the relationship between salaries of top pass rushing defensive ends and linebackers that consistently pressure opposing quarterbacks, expect Houston to sign a long-term deal somewhere between $14.5 million per year and $15.5 million per year as long as he doesn’t sustain a serious injury before the end of the season,” estimates Corry.
Latest On Ray Rice
As part of Ray Rice‘s appeal hearing, Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome testified under oath Thursday that he heard Rice tell NFL commissioner Roger Goodell that the ex-Ravens running back hit his then-fiancée in a casino hotel elevator, reports ESPN’s Don Van Natta Jr.
Thursday concluded Rice’s two-day appeal, which also included testimony from Goodell, Rice and and Rice’s wife, Janay. Additionally, the player’s union and the league submitted notes taken during the June 16 disciplinary hearing which left Rice suspended indefinitely for violating the personal conduct policy. The decision is now in the hands of U.S. District Judge Barbara S. Jones, who has asked for final briefs from both sides next week before she levies a ruling.
“Rice and the NFL Players Association contend the league’s indefinite suspension constitutes an enhanced punishment for the same violation and thus violates labor law,” writes Van Natta Jr. “The union also is arguing that the discipline of Rice by Goodell was inconsistent as it relates to the league’s conduct policy.”
Rice is seeking immediate reinstatement, which seems inconsequential given the PR firestorm sure to result from Rice signing with another team, though Bleacher Report’s Mike Freeman tweeted a quote an AFC scout who said: “I don’t think any team will sign him. But then again, there’s always an idiot in the room.”
Van Natta Jr. says ESPN’s Outside the Lines has a pair of sources confirming Thursday’s news. The program also quoted four sources in September who said Rice had told Goodell he hit Janay. Goodell denies that claim, saying that Rice’s June 16 account of the events was “ambiguous.”
As for the testimonies from Rice and his wife, Van Natta Jr. says a gag order imposed by Jones prevented the release of details. However, sources say Newsome supported Rice’s previous explanation to Goodell.
Weighing in on the news, Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio condemns the NFL by wondering:
“But does any of this matter? It was known that Rice had knocked out Janay Palmer in the elevator. Whether he used a closed fist, an open hand, an elbow, a forearm, or some other part of his body, he knocked . . . her . . . out.
“And if there were any ambiguity at all, the NFL should have gotten the video. It could have gotten the video. It failed to get the video.
“Regardless, the idea that the NFL would see any ambiguity at all in the information from Rice suggests either a lack of empathy for the victim of a knockout blow. Alternatively, it’s entirely possible that the NFL is simply feigning ignorance regarding what actually happened in order to support the knee-jerk second suspension, which came only hours after the video of the incident was published.”
Click here to read the NFLPA’s statement on the hearing.
AFC North Notes: Smith, Brown, Allen, Browns
Ravens cornerback Jimmy Smith (foot sprain) will be out “at least a few weeks,” writes the Baltimore Sun’s Aaron Wilson, who points to Nov. 24 against the Saints or the following week against the Chargers as possible return dates for Smith. When asked about adding a free-agent cornerback, head coach John Harbaugh said, “We don’t have to. If we can find the right guy, we’ll do that. They are scarce.” Instead, for now, the Ravens will turn to Dominique Franks to replace Smith. The team also has Chykie Brown, who has been inactive the last two games.
In other AFC North news…
- Despite the Ravens stating publicly they don’t intend to go outside the current roster for cornerback help, Wilson tweets the team inquired about Tony Carter of the Broncos prior to the trade deadline.
- The Steelers are another AFC North team with cornerback issues because Cortez Allen, who signed a five-year, $25MM deal before the season, has not only lost his starting job, but is in danger of being inactive, writes Ray Fittipaldo in the Post-Gazette. Head coach Mike Tomlin insists he remains confident in Allen’s abilities, but says the cornerback is leaving too many plays on the field: “[Allen] has to finish opportunities that he’s not getting done. Oftentimes, he is in position because he does a great job getting in position, but position is just an element of it. You have to finish.”
- Fittipaldo also notes the Steelers expect to have right tackle Marcus Gilbert back in the starting lineup. He sat out last week with a concussion.
- Steelers receiver Antonio Brown leads the NFL in receptions and targets, ranks second in receiving yards, is fourth in receiving touchdowns and paces all receivers with a 13.1 grade from Pro Football Focus. In Brown’s case, the stats don’t lie, says Tomlin, who boasted (via the team’s website) that the fifth-year playmaker is performing at an elite level. “He’s one of the best in the world at what he does,” said Tomlin at his weekly news conference. “(Antonio) is physically and mentally on top of his game, and when you have somebody who’s playing like that, you step into a stadium and he’s a known issue but still he performs. We say similar things about guys like J.J. Watt. We knew what he was capable of when we were getting ready to play the Houston Texans, but it still doesn’t stop the storm from coming. Antonio is playing at that type of a level from a wide receiver standpoint, a J.J. Watt discussion kind of a level.”
- The Browns rank last in the NFL in punt returns, which prompted ESPN Cleveland’s Tony Grossi to wonder if Josh Cribbs might get a phone call. However, head coach Mike Pettine quashed any speculation by saying, “Josh’s name hasn’t come up.”
Extra Points: Rice, Bills Ownership, Injuries
The NFL has informed teams that any contract with Ray Rice will not be approved until further direction is provided from Roger Goodell, tweets ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Additionally, Rice will not be eligible to play north of the border, either, as the CFL will honor the NFL’s suspension, according to Sportsnet’s Arash Madani (via Twitter).
Here’s some more miscellaneous news and notes:
- Bids to buy the Bills are in from Terry Pegula, Donald Trump and Jon Bon Jovi’s Toronto-based group, reports the Buffalo News’ Tim Graham (via Twitter). He adds multiple sources believe the process could be wrapped up as soon as Wednesday. As of yesterday, Pegula, who also owns the NHL’s Buffalo Sabres, appears to be the favorite to land the winning bid.
- Titans linebacker Zach Brown will miss the rest of the season because of a torn pectoral, reports Jim Wyatt of the Tennessean. Zaviar Gooden, another athletic linebacker, is expected to replace Brown in the starting lineup.
- Bears center Roberto Garza sustained a high ankle sprain yesterday, reports Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter). With Garza sidelined for an undetermined period of time, the Bears will turn to free-agent acquisition Brian De La Puente at center.
- Redskins defensive tackle Barry Cofield will also be sidelined by a high ankle sprain, says Ian Rapoport (via Twitter).
- The Patriots worked out running back Daniel Thomas, quarterback Brock Jensen and tight ends Evan Wilson and Brian Wozniak, according to ESPN’s Field Yates (Twitter link).
- Yates also reports a couple more running back tryouts: Chris Rainey (Cardinals) and Lache Seastrunk (Packers).
- Jason Fitzgerald at OverTheCap.com identifies players entering crucial stages of their contract who helped or hurt their stock on Sunday. Fitzgerald highlights Broncos tight end Julian Thomas, who recorded 7-103-3 in a win over the Colts, noting Thomas or teammate and free agent-to-be Demaryius Thomas “should be able to jump into a new offer” since the team can only franchise one of their pass-catching stars. At the other end of the spectrum, Fitzgerald says Redskins pass rusher Brian Orakpo was “non-existent “on Sunday. Furthermore, Orakpo’s reputation as someone who disappears in games could prevent him from getting the type of mega deal he seeks in free agency.
Minor Moves: Monday
- The Bills will sign backup quarterback Jordan Palmer, recently cut by the Bears, reports ESPN’s Field Yates (via Twitter).
- The Browns were awarded guards Karim Barton and Donald Hawkins on waivers from the Eagles, the team announced.
- The Chargers claimed defensive lineman Joe Kruger on waivers from the Eagles, the team announced.
- The Lions were awarded tight end Emil Igwenagu on waivers from the Eagles, per Aaron Wilson (via Twitter).
- The Bears have terminated the contract of veteran safety Craig Steltz, the team announced (via Twitter).
- The Broncos waived defensive tackle Cody Larsen, and placed receiver Jordan Norwood (ACL) on IR, the team announced (via Twitter).
- The Saints waived safety Ty Zimmerman, receiver Andy Tanner and tackle Ty Nsekhe, the team announced. Tight end Travis Beckum has also been waived, according to…Travis Beckum (Twitter link).
- The Dolphins waived/injured kicker John Potter, per Adam Beasley of the Miami Herald (via Twitter). The team announced tackle Steven Baker and safety Demetrius Wright were also waived (Twitter link).
Kawakami On Jim Harbaugh
Despite the fact Jim Harbaugh’s contract runs through 2015, there’s a strong chance this season will be the head coach’s last coaching the 49ers, according to the San Jose Mercury-News’ Tim Kawakami. Citing NFL sources, Kawakami engages in some educated speculation:
- In terms of Harbaugh staying in San Francisco beyond 2014, Kawakami says, “most knowledgeable folks believe it’s a coin flip” and “Harbaugh and [owner] Jed York might agree with those odds, too — privately — and both are OK with it.”
- General sentiment around the league is Harbaugh and management have set up this season “precisely to decide the future of the relationship.” Either the 49ers will have a successful season, and York will be more than willing to oblige with the “largest coaching contract in football history, something close to $10MM a year) or the 49ers will have a disappointing season, and “things will get muddled.”
- Kawakami states GM Trent Baalke “is decidedly part of the York team” vis-à-vis team brass’s not-so-private power struggle.
- It is unlikely either side will be content with a “lame duck” situation in 2015. Accordingly, a trade is a realistic scenario.
- Speculating about potential landing spots in 2015, Kawakami identifies three prerequisites to accommodate Harbaugh: money, personality fit and a “trusted executive to help him organize and re-configure the roster to his liking.”
- Kawakami says there is one man linked to Harbaugh: Eagles VP of Personnel Tom Gamble, formerly Baalke’s director of player personnel . Harbaugh “knows and likes” Gamble, who has connections to the Raiders and Dolphins, two teams “most likely to be on the Harbaugh Short-List if he should come available next off-season.”
- The Raiders (Al Davis) gave Harbaugh his first coaching job, and tried to lure him to Oakland before he took the 49ers job. Secondly, Gamble was an Al Davis confidante. Thirdly, the Raiders could very well have another poor season under Dennis Allen, who has posted an 8-24 record over two seasons. If the team seeks a “huge name to give the franchise momentum for a new stadium,” Harbaugh loves the Bay Area.
- The Dolphins reportedly offered Harbaugh more money than the 49ers did when Harbaugh was hired in 2011. In fact, Kawakami says, 49ers executives believed Harbaugh was on the verge of going to Miami. Then last January, Gamble was a legitimate candidate for the Dolphins GM job before he decided to remain in Philadelphia, “so it’s not a stretch to think they could be envisioned as a power tandem in 2015.”
Biggs On Bears: Clausen, McCray, McManis
One of the heartiest post-game reads around is the Chicago Tribune’s Brad Biggs’ “10 thoughts,” and this morning’s wrap-up of the Bears’ loss in Seattle is full of tid-bits:
- Technically teams have until 3 p.m. Tuesday to cut down from 90 to 75, but Biggs expects an announcement before Monday. “That’s because the Bears (and other teams) don’t want to go back to the practice field to prepare for the exhibition finale and have a player slated for the first wave of cuts suffer an injury. In that scenario, the team could be on the hook for several hundred thousand dollars if the injury is bad enough.”
- Jimmy Clausen should be Jay Cutler‘s backup, in Biggs’ opinion. While the preseason numbers for Clausen and Jordan Palmer are similar, Clausen has looked more decisive and experienced.
- “All signs point” to Danny McCray starting at safety in Week 1. “At this point, McCray might be about the only choice the Bears have at free safety,” says Biggs.
- Austen Lane and Trevor Scott have shown well enough to wonder if the Bears will keep five defensive ends. David Bass, who was part of the rotation last season, looks like the odd man out.
- Eben Britton‘s injury has opened the door for Michael Ola, who has played well and shown desirable versatility, increasing the chance he earns one of the team’s reserve lineman spots. Marc Trestman values his sixth lineman, as he used Britton for 235 snaps last season, primarily as an eligible tackle. “In a perfect world, coach Marc Trestman has a player that wears an eligible number to handle that role this season as an in-line blocker, extra tight end or even a presence in the backfield,” says Biggs, which is why tight end Matthew Mulligan looks like a “good bet” to secure a roster spot.
- In “I’m not saying, I’m just saying” fashion, Biggs highlights the play of Sherrick McManis, a 26-year-old cornerback whose value to this point in his career has been as a core special-teams player. However, the Bears No. 4 and No. 5 cornerback spots are up for grabs, and Biggs notes “Since training camp has opened, McManis is at the tops of a chart in the defensive backs room for takeaways. He’s not only practiced well, he’s played well in preseason and has seven tackles on defense, one interception, one tackle for loss two passes deflected and two stops on special teams.” Biggs intimates McManis’ situation could have the Bears front office flashing back to that of Corey Graham, whom the team undervalued. Graham went on to earn a two-year deal in Baltimore where he played well enough on defense to get $8.1MM guaranteed from the Bills this March.
AFC Notes: McPhee, Hurns, Amaro, Mack
Ravens outside linebacker Pernell McPhee is a player to watch in tonight’s third preseason game against the Redskins, says Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun: “Healthy this year after having no surgeries this offseason — unlike previous years when he’s undergone groin and knee procedures — the Ravens’ outside linebacker has been one of the best pass rushers in the NFL this preseason with one sack and five quarterback hurries. McPhee appears to have recaptured his rookie form from 2011 when he finished second on the Ravens with six sacks.” Meanwhile, ESPN’s Jaymison Hensley points out that McPhee is in the final year of his rookie deal, meaning the Ravens should benefit from healthy, motivated player seeking a contract extension.
Here’s a roundup of more links from around the AFC:
- T.J. Graham is the Bills’ top “bubble” player, says ESPN’s Mike Rodak: “With six receivers already considered locks for the 53-man roster, Graham might need an injury to make the cut. However, he can make a strong push for a job with another team with a good outing Saturday. Graham saw more time with the first-team offense as training camp progressed, and with Sammy Watkins not expected to play Saturday, Graham should have chances to catch passes from starting quarterback EJ Manuel. The Bills will need to make a decision on Graham shortly after Saturday’s game. Would they release him early and allow him time to catch on elsewhere? Or do they hold onto him and try to get him back on their practice squad, now that he is eligible under the NFL’s new rules?”
- With Donald Stephenson facing a four-game suspension and Joe Mays injured, the competition for replacement snaps at right tackle and inside linebacker is something to watch in the Chiefs’ third preseason game, writes Terez Paylor in the KC Star.
- The Broncos are in need of a punt returner following the torn ACL suffered by Jordan Norwood. Isaiah Burse will get the first chance to claim the role, according to an AP story.
- The Jaguars used a pair of second-round picks on receivers, but undrafted free agent Allen Hurns has been the best rookie in camp, writes Hays Carlyon in the Florida Times-Union: “The question now isn’t if Hurns makes the 53-man roster. He’s a virtual lock, a difficult position for an undrafted rookie to work his way to after three games. . . Hurns has put himself in position to perhaps start opposite Cecil Shorts when the Jaguars open the regular season at Philadelphia on Sept. 7.”
- Jace Amaro is impressing Rex Ryan. Speaking about the rookie tight end, Ryan told the New York Post’s Brian Costello, “I told you guys he reminds me of [Mike] Ditka the more I see him. The kid gets better and better and better. That’s the thing you love about this guy.” Amaro had four catches and a touchdown last night against the Giants.
- Raiders outside linebacker Khalil Mack looked worthy of the No. 5 overall selection last night, according to Marcus Thompson II of the San Jose Mercury-News.
- Raiders running back Kory Sheets (Achilles) is out for the season. Sheets broke the news himself via Twitter. As a result, Latavius Murray will begin the season as the team’s primary kick returner.
- A pair of young veterans — Dontay Moch and Orson Charles — could be candidates for the Bengals’ practice squad, speculates ESPN’s Cole Harvey, who says “coaches have grown tired of the Charles experiment and are all-in on undrafted rookie free agent Ryan Hewitt.”
Friday Night Game Notes: NFC North
This morning, NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport said the Packers were pessimistic about an arm injury suffered by nose tackle B.J. Raji last night. In his latest tweet, Rapoport reports (via Twitter) the belief is Raji tore his biceps, and tests will determine whether it’s fully or partially torn.
12:29: Raji’s biceps tear is confirmed, per JSOnline’s Tom Silverstein (via Twitter), who says the fear is Raji will be lost for the season.
Here’s some more links derived from last night’s action involving the Packers, Bears and Lions:
- “There’s a good chance that rookie TE Richard Rodgers will be the Green Bay Packers’ starter against the Seattle Seahawks Sept. 4.,” says JSOnline’s Tom Silverstein.
- Casey Hayward is nursing a hamstring injury, and ESPN’s Rob Demovsky wonders if it’s time to worry.
- The Bears were drubbed in Seattle, and ESPN’s Michael C. Wright provided his observations, including the continued struggles of young linebackers Shea McClellin and Jon Bostic.
- Safety Chris Conte saw his first game action since last season. . .and promptly sustained a concussion (confirmed by the team via Twitter), adding yet another question mark to the Bears’ unsettled safety situation.
- Tahir Whitehead‘s strong play is making the Lions’ strong-side linebacker competition a three-horse race, writes Josh Katzenstein in the Detroit News.
- Ndamukong Suh‘s roughing-the-passer penalty drew headlines, but the quantity of Lions penalties is concerning to head coach Jim Caldwell, says MLive.com’s Kyle Meinke.
Eagles Cut 14
The Eagles have announced their first wave of roster cuts:
- Blake Annen, TE
- Michael Bamiro, OL
- Karim Barton, OL
- Kadron Boone, WR
- B.J. Cunningham, WR
- Donald Hawkins, OL
- Emil Igwenagu, TE
- Jake Knott, LB
- Joe Kruger, DE
- Daytawion Lowe, S
- Frances Mays, DE
- Davon Morgan, S
- Carey Spear, K
- Alejandro Villanueva, DE
Knott is somewhat of a surprise given his special-teams contributions last season, but he dealt with a hamstring injury during training camp and faces a four-game suspension.