Poll: Who Will Win The AFC West?
Even though the defending Super Bowl champions are a member of the AFC West, the division’s prospects looked extremely cloudy heading into the 2016 division. In PFR’s preseason predictions, three writers picked the Chiefs to take the division crown, with the Raiders and Broncos picking up two and one vote(s), respectively. Additionally, four of six PFR writers projected an AFC West club to claim a Wild Card berth.
And thus far, the division is still up for grabs — the Broncos, Raiders, Chiefs, and Chargers all rank in the top half of the NFL in DVOA, while Denver, Oakland, and Kansas City all have better than a two-thirds chance of making the postseason, according to Football Outsiders (all statistics current through Week 8). In Week 9, the Chiefs have already posted a victory, the Chargers are leading the Titans, and the Broncos and Raiders will square off in an extremely important Sunday night contest.
Each of the four teams in the division has an area where they could improve, including the two clubs who will play tonight. While Denver’s defense is once again one of the best in the league, its offense ranks just 21st in DVOA. Much of that struggle can be attributed to quarterback Trevor Siemian, but the Broncos’ offensive line play has also been poor. Oakland, meanwhile, has posted excellent offensive numbers, but its defense is giving up more than 410 yards per game, 31st in the NFL.
The Chiefs are using the Denver model (20th in offensive DVOA, ninth in defensive DVOA), and are dealing with an injury to their quarterback, Alex Smith. Kansas City’s rushing attack has been impressive based on raw totals, but on an efficiency basis, the club ranks 29th in the league. 
San Diego’s defense is also playing well, as is Philip Rivers, but the Chargers could use more help from their offensive line, which ranks in the bottom-third of the NFL in both run- and pass-blocking, per FO.
Tonight’s game will have a large impact on both Denver and Oakland’s playoff odds: as Brian Burke of ESPN.com tweets, the Broncos are facing a 15.9% probability leverage (change in chance of making the postseason based on the results of this week’s game), while the Raiders are staring down a 26.2% PL. The Chiefs and Chargers were looking at a 21.2% and 13.6% change, respectively.
So, what do you think? Will Broncos hold on to defend their division title? Will the upstart Raiders upend them? Will the uber-consistent Chiefs take over? Or will the Chargers surprise everyone and storm back to take the crown? Vote below, and leave your thoughts in the comments section!
PFR Originals: 10/30/16 – 11/6/16
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- Ahead of last Tuesday’s trade deadline, Zach Links ran down all the potential candidates to be moved, a list that included Joe Thomas, Joe Staley, Torrey Smith, Brandon Marshall, Sheldon Richardson, and Alshon Jeffery. Ultimately, the biggest deal went down the day before the deadline, as the Browns picked up linebacker Jamie Collins from the Patriots. But Richardson, specifically, drew interest before 3pm CT Tuesday, with the Cowboys (for one) making an offer.
- During last week’s Thursday night contest between the Falcons and the Buccaneers, Connor Byrne asked PFR readers to vote on which club who emerge with the NFC South crown. After taking down Tampa, Atlanta sits atop the division with a 6-3 record, while Tampa fell to 3-5. The Saints, meanwhile, are 3-4 heading into today’s game against the 49ers, while the Panthers are still at the bottom of the division with a 2-5 record. Nearly 80% of respondents think the Falcons will take the division title.
- Zach rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.
- Be sure to download the Trade Rumors app today!
Poll: Who Will Win The NFC South?
At the outset of the season, the NFC South wasn’t supposed to look as wide open as it currently does. Back then, the Panthers were the clear-cut favorites after going 15-1 last year and rolling through the NFC playoffs en route to a Super Bowl berth. The 2016 Panthers are a far cry from the 2015 version, though, as reigning NFL MVP Cam Newton and the rest of the team have fallen to earth amid a 2-5 start. Carolina is in last place in the division, trailing two 3-4 rivals (the Buccaneers and Saints) and the 5-3 Falcons. More alarming, perhaps, is that the Panthers have already lost to all three of those clubs this year, giving them that much more ground to make up in the race.
The Falcons, led by MVP candidate Matt Ryan, superstar wide receiver Julio Jones and running back Devonta Freeman, are 2-1 in the division and boast its only positive point differential (plus-31). They’re also facing the Buccaneers, who are 2-0 in the NFC South, on Thursday in a crucial divisional battle. A win would make the Falcons all the more difficult to catch, while a victory for the Bucs would vault Jameis Winston & Co. to .500 and keep them perfect against their closest rivals. A Falcons defeat would also cause flashbacks to last season, when the club collapsed after a 6-1 start to finish 8-8. This year’s Falcons began 4-1 and are now in danger of dropping three of four, though their fifth overall ranking in Football Outsiders’ DVOA seemingly indicates they’re for real. Nobody else in the division is even in the top 20 in that metric.
The Saints are at No. 23, but they’ve come around in the standings after an 0-3 start and will reach the .500 mark for the first time this season if they beat the lowly 49ers on Sunday. In their signature victory of the year, the Saints upset the Seahawks, 25-20, last Sunday. That was already the sixth one-score game of 2016 for the Saints, who have gone 3-3 in those contests. That’s also true of the Falcons, while the Bucs have recorded a 2-1 mark in one-score affairs and the Panthers have logged an 0-3 record.
While Atlanta and New Orleans are defensively challenged, both have tremendous offenses and top-tier quarterbacks in Ryan and Drew Brees. Conversely, Tampa Bay and Carolina haven’t done anything at an elite level this year. Barring offensive or defensive turnarounds, that would seem to put each behind the 8-ball, though Newton showed in 2015 that he’s capable of performing like an unstoppable force. Given their general decline this year, the Panthers will need Newton to resemble his 2015 self over the season’s final nine games if they’re going to win the division for the fourth straight year. If not, one of the other clubs should finally dethrone Carolina atop the NFC South.
2016 NFL Trade Deadline Primer
The 2016 NFL trade deadline is just hours away. This is the last chance of the season for contending teams to deal for a key piece for the playoff push and final opportunity for rebuilding clubs to make a future-minded deal. This year, there are a number of players who have been mentioned in trade rumors that could be changing jerseys between now and the 4pm ET/3pm CT deadline.
Naturally, cap room will be as much of a factor for teams as their positional needs. As Albert Breer of The MMQB (Twitter links) outlines, some teams have a great deal of space to work with while others have very little. The Browns, 49ers, Jaguars, and Titans all have enough cap space to acquire just about any contract. The Chargers, Rams, and Vikings, meanwhile, all have less than $1MM of room to work with.
Historically, the NFL trade deadline hasn’t brought a ton of action, but yesterday we saw a surprise blockbuster go down when the Patriots traded linebacker Jamie Collins to the Browns. We just might be in store for more major news today.
Here’s a rundown of the big names that have been mentioned in trade rumors over the past couple of weeks:
Browns OT Joe Thomas: Thomas, a lifelong member of the Browns, has made it clear that he does not want to be traded. Coach Hue Jackson flatly said that the tackle would not be dealt between now and the deadline. Still, rival GMs aren’t so sure that top exec Sashi Brown won’t pull the trigger on a deal anyway. 
The Browns remain winless and it only makes sense that the team would explore dealing Thomas for draft considerations. However, the Browns already have quite a stockpile and they even drew from that surplus yesterday to acquire linebacker Jamie Collins from the Patriots. All month long, there has been talk of Cleveland selling off its parts with an eye on 2017 and beyond. Now, one has to wonder if A. they are still inclined to sell and B. they could even look to acquire name players this afternoon.
The Giants have expressed interest in Thomas, but they get the impression that Cleveland is going to hold on to him. The Vikings, Colts, Seahawks, Cardinals, Broncos, and Patriots could also use some help up front, but it’s not clear which of those clubs have reached out. Previous reports have indicated that the Browns were seeking a second-round choice for the veteran, but teams might have to sweeten the pot further if they are truly leaning towards keeping him.
Browns CB Joe Haden: Teams are reportedly scouting Haden in advance of the deadline. Once regarded as one of the league’s best young corners, Haden has been slowed by injuries in recent years. Any team that would take on Haden and his considerable salary wants to know exactly where he stands with his ankle, hamstring, and other assorted maladies.
At the midway point of the season, Pro Football Focus has Haden ranked as the 29th best corner in the NFL. That indicates Haden is an above-average starter, but not an elite player at the position. Haden is in year two of his five-year, $67.5MM extension and a cornerback-needy team like the Dolphins could explore a deal. But, as with Thomas, it’s not clear if the Browns are willing to sell. Haden is under contract through 2019 and won’t turn 28 until April. There’s not much he can do for the Browns in 2016, but he could still be a vital piece going forward.
In related news, the Browns are reportedly open to trading fellow corner Tramon Williams. The Packers are thin at cornerback and a reunion would make a lot of sense.
Cardinals RB Coach Stump Mitchell In Contract Year
David Johnson has made a name for himself as one of the very best running backs in the NFL today. Less well known is Cardinals running backs coach Stump Mitchell, the man who is responsible for developing Johnson into an elite offensive weapon. Pro Football Rumors has learned that Mitchell is now in the final year of his contract and he is aiming to take on a larger role next season. 
Mitchell hopes to remain with the Cardinals, agent Burton Rocks tells PFR, but Rocks also believes that he is capable of a higher title. Rocks says he could conceivably pitch Mitchell as an associate head coach, offensive coordinator, and even head coaching candidate this offseason. It’s also possible that Mitchell could entertain D-I head coaching job offers if the right one comes along.
Mitchell, of course, has deep ties to the Cardinals after spending his entire nine-year career with the organization. The 57-year-old holds the franchise record in all-purpose yards and is second all-time in rushing yards. Now, he has Johnson on track to eventually leapfrog him in the history books. There’s no sign of a staff shakeup in Arizona, but the Cardinals could theoretically promote Mitchell without displacing another coach. For example, Tom Moore holds the title of assistant head coach on offense, but the soon-to-be 78-year-old could choose to return to a less demanding consulting role.
Before joining up with the Cardinals in 2013, Mitchell was the longtime running backs coach of the Seahawks and also spent two seasons as the Redskins’ running backs coach/associate head coach. He also has college head coaching experience with Morgan State and Southern University. In addition to David Johnson, Chris Johnson, and Andre Ellington, Mitchell’s running back resume also includes the likes of Ricky Waters, Ahman Green, Shaun Alexander, Clinton Portis, and Mike Sellers.
As Johnson terrorizes opposing defenses, the timing could not be better for Mitchell to reach free agency. If the Cardinals’ ground game continues to produce, the veteran coach could have an opportunity to climb the NFL coaching ladder in the New Year.
PFR Originals: 10/2/16 – 10/9/16
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- 49ers head coach Chip Kelly left the door open for a quarterback change in Week 6, as Blaine Gabbert isn’t getting the job done in the Bay Area. With that in mind, Connor Byrne asked which signal-caller should start for San Francisco against the Bills next week. So far, Colin Kaepernick and Christian Ponder have each garnered about 45% of the vote.
- Zach Links rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.
Poll: Which QB Should 49ers Start In Week 6?
In Blaine Gabbert, Colin Kaepernick and Christian Ponder, the 49ers have three quarterbacks who were high picks in the 2011 draft, yet the 1-4 club finds itself in an unenviable position under center. Gabbert and Ponder, both of whom were first-rounders, have never lived up to their respective draft choices. Conversely, Kaepernick has his share of accomplishments since the 49ers used a second-rounder on him, but the 28-year-old’s effectiveness has fallen off in recent seasons.
Just as he did in Jacksonville, where he spent the first three seasons of his career, Gabbert is failing in San Francisco. Gabbert won the starting job over the summer, but he’s now at risk of losing the role thanks to his substandard output thus far. After the 49ers’ 33-21 loss to the Cardinals on Thursday, when Gabbert completed 18-of-31 passes for 162 yards, a touchdown and an interception, head coach Chip Kelly left the door open for a change at quarterback.
The assumption is that Kaepernick will grab the reins if Kelly demotes Gabbert, but multiple 49ers offensive players have told Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com that they’d like Ponder to take over. The 12th selection in his draft class (two picks after Gabbert), Ponder garnered plenty of experience with the Vikings from 2011-14, though he didn’t exactly light it up. In 38 appearances (36 starts), Ponder completed a below-average 59.8 percent of passes, averaged an underwhelming 6.3 yards per attempt, and tossed 38 touchdowns against 36 picks in Minnesota. Those numbers are almost identical to the totals Gabbert has posted during his 42-appearance, 40-start career (56.3 completion percentage, 6.0 YPA, 38 TDs versus 37 INTs).
It’s clear that Kaepernick, who lost his job to Gabbert last year as he battled injuries and a decline in performance, has the best credentials of any 49ers quarterback. But his days as a quality option may have concluded with his season-ending interception in the 49ers’ 23-17 NFC title game loss to Seattle in January 2014. The once-electrifying dual threat has been mediocre to worse since, though it might be worthwhile for the Kelly to see if he can help the sixth-year man recapture the form he showed off in his first season and a half at the Niners’ helm. Of course, it’s questionable whether Kaepernick is physically ready to get back on the field after surgeries to his left knee, left shoulder and right thumb stopped him from experiencing a normal offseason.
The offensive-minded Kelly previously drew career-best performances from Nick Foles, Mark Sanchez and Sam Bradford in Philadelphia, but it doesn’t appear he’ll do the same with Gabbert in San Francisco. Kelly has two other (flawed) choices on hand, though, and with extra time to prepare for the 49ers’ Week 6 visit to Buffalo, a shakeup could happen.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
PFR Originals: 9/25/16 – 10/2/16
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- We posted our master list of 2017 NFL Free Agents. Every player that is currently on a roster and doesn’t have a contract for next season is listed, as well as a few other notable names that aren’t on a team at the moment. Be sure to bookmark the list so you’re well prepared when the offseason begins.
- Zach Links rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.
2017 NFL Free Agents
Pro Football Rumors’ up-to-date list of 2017 NFL free agents is below. These are players who are eligible for restricted or unrestricted free agency after the 2016 season. The player’s 2017 age is in parentheses. Players are generally sorted by the position at which they played most in ’16, or the position at which their most recent team listed them.
Players who are currently on an NFL roster but don’t have a contract for 2017 are listed below, along with a few other notable free agents who aren’t on a roster at the moment.
Players eligible for restricted free agency are marked with (R), while non-exclusive franchise and transition players will be marked with (F) and (T) respectively. Exclusive rights free agents are not included. All other free agents are assumed to be unrestricted.
If you have any corrections or omissions, please contact us. For instant free agent updates, be sure to follow us on Twitter @pfrumors.
Updated 12-5-17 (9:20am CT)
Quarterbacks
Bruce Gradkowski (34)
Robert Griffin III (27)
Shaun Hill (37)
Josh Johnson (31)
Colin Kaepernick (29)
Luke McCown (36)
Matt McGloin (27)
Zach Mettenberger (26)
Ryan Nassib (27)
Christian Ponder (29)
Sean Renfree (27)
Connor Shaw (26)
Charlie Whitehurst (35)
Running Backs
Bralon Addison (23)
Antonio Andrews (26)
Dri Archer (26)
Joe Banyard (28)
Reggie Bush (32)
Ka’Deem Carey (25)
Knile Davis (26)
Shaun Draughn (29)
George Farmer (24)
Jonathan Grimes (27)
DuJuan Harris (29)
Tim Hightower (31)
Ronnie Hillman (26)
Rashad Jennings (32)
Chris Johnson (32)
Tre Mason (24)
Ryan Mathews (29)
Dexter McCluster (29)
Darren McFadden (30)
Bernard Pierce (27)
Bobby Rainey (30)
Chase Reynolds (30)
Daryl Richardson (27)
Stevan Ridley (28)
Denard Robinson (27)
Khiry Robinson (27)
C.J. Spiller (30)
James Starks (31)
Lorenzo Taliaferro (25)
Stepfan Taylor (26)
Juwan Thompson (25)
Terrell Watson (24)
Trey Watts (26)
DeAngelo Williams (34)
Karlos Williams (24)
Read more
Poll: Which 0-2 Team Is Likeliest To Rebound?
Three-quarters of NFL teams have picked up at least one win this season, leaving eight stragglers that have begun 2016 with back-to-back losses. Historically, clubs that have lost their first two games haven’t rebounded to make postseason trips often. In fact, since the league expanded and reorganized its divisions in 2002, only 12 of 116 teams that have started a season 0-2 have gone on to earn playoff berths. Two of those occurrences came last season, with the Seahawks rallying to finish 10-4 and the Texans going 9-5 over their final 14 games.
Of the teams that are currently 0-2, Cleveland stands out as the one with no realistic chance to recover. As a club in a full-blown rebuild, the Browns were completely written off entering the season, and they’ve since lost their top two quarterbacks – Robert Griffin III and Josh McCown – and No. 1 receiver Corey Coleman to significant injuries.
Elsewhere, the Bears, Bills, Dolphins and Saints faced long odds to contend coming into the year, and their chances have worsened during the first two weeks.
The Bears are stuck in a tough NFC North with the Vikings and Packers, both of whom made the playoffs in 2015. Of greater concern, perhaps, is that injuries are hampering Chicago, which will go without quarterback Jay Cutler, linebacker Danny Trevathan and nose tackle Eddie Goldman for multiple weeks. Meanwhile, linebacker Lamarr Houston is out for the season with a torn ACL.
Buffalo, which has gone a league-worst 16 straight seasons without a playoff trip, is seemingly in shambles in Year 2 of the Rex Ryan era. Ryan fired offensive coordinator Greg Roman last Friday, the same day Bills ownership had a Ryan-less meeting with several of the team’s players. Previously, the Bills dropped winnable games against the Ravens and Jets, which doesn’t bode well for a team whose next two opponents – the Cardinals and Patriots – are elite.
The Dolphins, who are among the Bills’ AFC East rivals, began with an unkind schedule over the first two weeks. They had to go to Seattle and New England, where they lost close affairs. Miami’s next opponent is the aforementioned Browns, who are primed to start third-round rookie Cody Kessler under center. On paper, the Dolphins look likely to win their home opener, but few expect rookie head coach Adam Gase & Co. to make any real noise in the standings this year.
Like the Dolphins, the Saints have started 2016 with back-to-back one-score losses, including a 35-34 opener that the Raiders won with a late two-point conversion. New Orleans hasn’t necessarily played poorly, and it still has a high-powered offense, but a defense that already had issues coming into the year has since lost starting cornerbacks Delvin Breaux and P.J. Williams to major injuries.
In the AFC South, there were preseason cases made for both the Colts or Jaguars to contend for a divisional crown, but things haven’t gone according to plan for either.
Indianapolis moved the ball with ease through the air in Week 1 against the Lions, but its defense was woeful in a 39-35 loss. Then, in last week’s 34-20 defeat in Denver, quarterback Andrew Luck was ineffective. After missing most of last season with various injuries, he has been dealing with a shoulder issue throughout this season.
The Jaguars made several hyped offseason moves and entered the season with high expectations for a franchise that hasn’t won more than five games in a season since 2010. They played the Packers to the wire in Week 1, losing 27-23, but looked like the same old Jags on Sunday in a 38-14 defeat in San Diego.
Of this year’s winless crop, only the Redskins made the playoffs last season. Washington went 9-7 en route to an NFC East title, and the division once again looks like anyone’s to win, but the team won’t have a chance without quarterback Kirk Cousins regaining something resembling the form he showed in the second half of 2015. The Cousins-led Redskins will go on the road Sunday to face the division-rival Giants, who are 2-0. It’s foolish to use the phrase “must-win game” in Week 3, but Washington’s matchup with Big Blue comes close.
As mentioned, the Browns and Dolphins play each other this week. Barring a tie, then, one will break into the win column. The other six face teams that have gone 1-1 or better, and all could remain without a victory through Week 3. Notably, no club has started 0-3 and made the playoffs since the 1998 Bills. First things first, though, which of these eight stands the best chance to make a playoff run this season?