NFLPA Announces Cap Carryover Amounts
The NFL Players Association issued a press release today announcing the salary cap carryover amounts for all 32 NFL teams for the 2016 season. The official salary cap amount for 2016 has yet to be announced by the league, but it’s expected to be in the neighborhood of $155MM+. When that figures becomes official, it can be added to each team’s carryover amount to determine that club’s official cap for 2016.
According to the press release, the Broncos, Rams, and the Saints are the only teams that opted not to carry over the full amount available to them, though none of those clubs are believed to have left significant amounts on the table.
Here are the salary cap carryover amounts for 2016, per the NFLPA, from highest to lowest:
- Jacksonville Jaguars: $32,774,928
- Tennessee Titans: $20,783,801
- Cleveland Browns: $20,734,144
- Oakland Raiders: $13,373,617
- San Francisco 49ers: $12,206,686
- New York Giants: $11,193,231
- Miami Dolphins: $9,137,544
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: $7,987,748
- Cincinnati Bengals: $7,587,902
- Philadelphia Eagles: $7,255,362
- Green Bay Packers: $6,953,847
- Washington: $5,837,734
- Indianapolis Colts: $4,950,629
- Buffalo Bills: $4,467,331
- Atlanta Falcons: $3,905,771
- Carolina Panthers: $3,731,200
- Dallas Cowboys: $3,571,239
- Denver Broncos: $3,300,000
- Arizona Cardinals: $3,031,663
- Pittsburgh Steelers: $3,000,327
- Kansas City Chiefs: $2,622,838
- New York Jets: $2,484,216
- San Diego Chargers: $2,287,176
- Minnesota Vikings: $2,090,409
- Houston Texans: $1,637,055
- Baltimore Ravens: $1,633,944
- New Orleans Saints: $1,400,000
- New England Patriots: $1,347,882
- Los Angeles Rams: $933,521
- Chicago Bears: $867,589
- Detroit Lions: $862,191
- Seattle Seahawks: $11,587
Free Agent Rumors: Okung, Blount, Osweiler
Seahawks tackle Russell Okung, who is venturing into free agency without an agent to negotiate on his behalf, has retained former agent and team executive J.I. Halsell to counsel him on his upcoming contract, according to Josina Anderson of ESPN.com (Twitter link).
“I hired a consultant for analytical and support value,” Okung explained to Anderson (Twitter link). “I’ll continue to sit directly at the table in all negotiations.”
Here’s more from around the NFL on current and pending free agents:
- The Patriots and running back LeGarrette Blount have shown mutual interest in working out a new contract, a source tells Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald. However, negotiations between the two sides are “in the infant stages,” and Blount could still reach the open market in March.
- Speaking today to reporters, including Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (Twitter link), Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak called quarterback Brock Osweiler “special” and made it clear he wants Osweiler to remain in Denver going forward.
- Bears tight end Zach Miller, eligible for unrestricted free agency next month, is now represented by agent Drew Rosenhaus, tweets Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune. A report earlier this month suggested Miller is aiming to land $5MM per year on his next deal.
- Former Bears tackle Jermon Bushrod, who became a free agent last week after being cut by Chicago, underwent labrum surgery and is expected to take about four months to fully recover, a source tells Adam Caplan of ESPN.com (Twitter link). That could put Bushrod’s search for a new team on hold.
- The Jaguars spoke last week to center Stefen Wisniewski, but the team doesn’t anticipate getting anything done with the veteran free-agent-to-be before the new league year begins, tweets Ryan O’Halloran of the Florida Times-Union.
Bears Expected To Retain Alshon Jeffery
The Bears are expected to keep wide receiver Alshon Jeffery in the mix and off the open market, either by re-signing him to a long-term contract or using their franchise tag on him, reports Adam Schefter of ESPN.com (via Twitter).
General manager Ryan Pace spoke to reporters today about Jeffery, indicating that the team is “aggressively” negotiating with the wideout now in an effort to lock him up to a new deal, per Rich Campbell of the Chicago Tribune (Twitter links). Pace, who said he gets the sense that Jeffery wants to remain in Chicago, said that using the franchise tag is on the table as a potential outcome.
A report last week suggested that the Bears were still undecided on whether or not to tag Jeffery, but it sounds as if the team is becoming more inclined to go that route, if no contract extension is agreed upon. March 1st is the deadline for clubs to use their franchise or transition tags, so Pace and the Bears figure to continue working on a multiyear deal up until that deadline.
After averaging 87 receptions and 1,277 yards in 2013 and 2014, Jeffery was plagued by injuries in 2015, but he was excellent when healthy, averaging a career-high 89.7 yards per game. If he is franchised by the Bears, he’ll be in line for a salary north of $14MM for 2016. He could still work out a longer-term agreement with the team by July 15th, or play the season on the one-year tag.
Pace also briefly mentioned another one of the team’s key offensive free-agents-to-be today, telling reporters that the Bears like tight end Zach Miller. However, Adam Jahns of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets that it sounds as if Miller will test free agency before considering signing a new deal with Chicago, in order to get a sense of his value on the open market. According to Cambell (via Twitter), it sounds like linebacker Shea McClellin will also reach the open market, but bother players could re-sign with the Bears if the price is right.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Bears Undecided On Tagging Alshon Jeffery
With several big-name wide receivers signing new contract extensions in 2015, the free agent market for 2016 has been left somewhat depleted. However, at least one player capable of being a No. 1 receiver remains on track to become a free agent, for now. And according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (via Twitter), there’s a chance that the Bears could let Alshon Jeffery hit the open market.
[RELATED: 2016 NFL franchise tag candidates]
While the general consensus has been that Chicago will use its franchise tag to lock up Jeffery, the team has yet to make a decision on whether or not to tag the former second-round pick, says Rapoport. Presumably, the Bears would prefer to sign Jeffery to a multiyear deal, rather than committing $14MM+ in 2016 cap room to him on the franchise tag, but Mike Garafolo of FOX Sports tweets that agent Eugene Parker is unlikely to budge much in contract negotiations until Chicago uses its tag.
If that is indeed Parker’s position, it makes sense. Should the Bears franchise Jeffery, it would increase his floor for a long-term deal, putting the 26-year-old into the salary range of wideouts like Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, and Demaryius Thomas.
Jeffery’s case for a high-end contract may not be quite as strong as those players’ cases were, but if he’s tagged, his position in the marketplace virtually assures that any long-term extension he signs would place him among the league’s highest-paid receivers. If Chicago decides not to use its franchise tag, Jeffery would have a chance to reach the open market in a year when he’s the clear-cut top receiver available, which isn’t a bad alternative for Parker and his client.
After averaging 87 receptions and 1,277 yards in 2013 and 2014, Jeffery was plagued by injuries in 2015, but he was excellent when healthy, averaging a career-high 89.7 yards per game. Ultimately, I’d expect the Bears to use the franchise tag on him to avoid letting him get away for nothing, but it will be an interesting situation to monitor over the next week and a half.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
David Bruton Wants To Return To Broncos
Safety David Bruton will be eligible to sign anywhere in a few weeks, but he says his preference is to stay with the defending World Champions, as Cameron Wolfe of The Denver Post tweets. However, there figures to be a pretty healthy market for Bruton this spring. The Broncos safety tells Wolfe that he’s heard the Bears, Dolphins, and Giants are interested in him. 
[RELATED: Malik Jackson Talks Free Agency, Broncos’ QBs]
Bruton could also be pricing himself out of Denver. The safety told Wolfe (link) that he is eyeing a three-year, $15MM deal like the one that Justin Bethel received from the Cardinals. With more pressing needs to address, it would be surprising to see the Broncos give him that sort of deal prior to the start of free agency or even early on that week. The Broncos project to have T.J. Ward and Darian Stewart at safety, so they can afford to let Bruton go if he does not fit into the budget.
Bruton was placed on IR in December after breaking his leg and, therefore, did not play in the Super Bowl. Remarkably, Bruton played through three quarters of a late-season tilt against the Steelers with a broken fibula and, by his own estimation, he could have played in SB50 had he been eligible (link). At this point, Bruton says he’s 100% and is already riding bikes and doing squats in preparation for next season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Bears Cut OT Jermon Bushrod
The Bears announced that they have cut tackle Jermon Bushrod with a failed physical designation. Bushrod was due to earn $6.5MM in 2016. Bushrod inked a sizable five-year deal back in 2013 and he had two more seasons to go before the pact was terminated on Tuesday. The failed physical stemmed from Bushrod’s bad shoulder, a source tells Mike Garafolo of FOX Sports (via Twitter). 
[RELATED: Bears receiver Alshon Jeffery among PFR’s 2016 Franchise Tag Candidates]
Bushrod, 31, suffered a concussion early in the season and, soon after, a shoulder injury. Charles Leno took over the tackle spot in his absence and Bushrod was then asked to play backup to him and right tackle Kyle Long.
“We thank Jermon for his contributions to the Bears,” Bears GM Ryan Pace said (via Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune). “I have so much respect for how he carries himself on and off the field. He was a locker room leader and contributor in helping the younger players on our team grow. We wish him and his family the best as they move forward.”
Bushrod and the Bears agreed to a five year contract worth nearly $36MM back in 2013. Prior to that, the tackle spent 2007-2012 with the Saints where he earned two consecutive Pro Bowl selections before hitting the open market.
The Bears will save $4.3MM against the 2016 cap by releasing Bushrod while carrying $4.4MM in dead money. With Bushrod out of the picture, the Bears are expected to evaluate both Leno and Long as options on the left side.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
NFC North Notes: Lions, Bears, Guion
The Lions and Bears each formally announced additions to their coaching staff today, with Detroit naming a new quarterbacks coach and Chicago confirming a new wide receivers coach.
As previously reported, the Lions’ new QBs coach is Brian Callahan, who spent the last six seasons with the Broncos, and has previously worked with Detroit offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter. In 2015, Callahan was an offensive assistant in Denver, playing a part in coaching the club’s QBs.
As for the Bears, their new wide receivers coach is Curtis Johnson, who had been Tulane’s head coach for the past four seasons after serving as the WRs coach for the Saints from 2006 to 2011. Joining Johnson in Chicago is Ben McDaniels, whose hiring was also reported last Friday. Josh McDaniels‘ brother officially joins the Bears as an offensive assistant.
Here’s more from around the NFC North:
- According to Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Twitter link), Letroy Guion‘s new contract with the Packers features a modest $500K signing bonus. Silverstein adds that the deal includes “$1.5MM more later,” though it’s not clear if that refers to a signing bonus or his 2016 salary. Friday reports indicated the three-year pact is worth a total of $11.25MM.
- Having locked up two key defensive players – Mike Daniels and Guion – who would have been eligible for free agency this winter, the Packers‘ next priority may be a special-teamer, according to Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com, who examines kicker Mason Crosby‘s impending free agency.
- Jeff Dickerson of ESPN.com explores the possibility of cornerback Tracy Porter re-signing with the Bears for the 2016 season after a strong 2015 campaign.
2016 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates
On Tuesday, February 16th, NFL teams will be able to place franchise and transition tags on potential free agents for the first time. While the window for franchise tags opens at that point, most clubs won’t actually tag any players right away.
As our list of important dates for the 2016 offseason shows, the deadline for teams to assign those franchise and transition tags comes two weeks later, on Tuesday, March 1st. Generally when it comes to NFL contract discussions, deadlines spur action, so teams will likely wait until closer to that March deadline to officially use franchise tags, once it becomes clear that they won’t be able to strike a longer-term deal yet with their respective free-agents-to-be.
Even though the action might not heat up for a couple more weeks, it’s worth taking a closer look at what to expect during 2016’s franchise tag period. We don’t know yet what the exact salary amounts for franchise tags will be, since the NFL has yet to announce the salary cap figure for the coming year. But back in November, former agent Joel Corry of CBSSports.com projected the 2016 franchise tag salaries, based on a presumed cap of $154MM. Here are the non-exclusive franchise tag amounts projected by Corry:
- Quarterback: $19.748MM
- Running back: $11.871MM
- Wide receiver: $14.527MM
- Tight end: $9.053MM
- Offensive line: $13.678MM
- Defensive end: $15.494MM
- Defensive tackle: $13.368MM
- Linebacker: $14.131MM
- Cornerback: $13.838MM
- Safety: $10.717MM
- Punter/kicker: $4.534MM
Those numbers are unlikely to be 100% accurate, but the actual figures won’t be drastically different, so we can use them as points of reference when considering which players are candidates to be franchised in 2016.
For a refresher on the characteristics of the exclusive and non-exclusive franchise tags, as well as the transition tag, be sure to check out PFR’s glossary entry on the subject. Once you’re up to speed, let’s dive in and take a look at the most likely candidates to be tagged, along with several more outside possibilities….
Virtual locks:
Broncos pass rusher Von Miller was viewed as the top player in this year’s group of potential free agents even before he terrorized Cam Newton in Santa Clara and earned Super Bowl MVP honors. Now, there’s no doubt that Denver will do all it can to retain the former second overall pick. The only questions for Miller are whether he’ll reach a long-term deal with the Broncos before the club needs to franchise him, and whether he’d get the exclusive or non-exclusive tag.
Panthers cornerback Josh Norman didn’t make the same impact in Super Bowl 50 that Miller did, but Carolina still seems likely to franchise him to avoid letting him hit the open market. The franchise tag for cornerbacks is projected to be worth nearly $14MM, but the Panthers are in better cap shape than they have been in recent years, and can afford to take the hit.
Meanwhile, it has been a few years since a quarterback was franchised, but Washington signal-caller Kirk Cousins is a strong candidate. Reports have indicated the team won’t let him get away, but the two sides apparently aren’t close to a multiyear agreement, which makes the franchise tag the most logical option at this point.
Strong candidates:
A year or two ago, Bears receiver Alshon Jeffery would have been a no-brainer candidate for the franchise tag. However, 2015 was an up-and-down season for Jeffery, who only played in nine games due to injury issues. When he did play, Jeffery was excellent, averaging a career-high 89.7 yards per game, and few teams have more projected cap room this offseason than Chicago, so it seems unlikely that the team would let the wideout get away — especially given how weak the market for receivers is this year, outside of Jeffery.
The Jets are facing an interesting predicament on their defensive line with Damon Harrison and Muhammad Wilkerson eligible for free agency this winter. Harrison isn’t a franchise tag candidate, and the Jets could conceivably re-sign him at a reasonable price, then move forward with a defensive line of Harrison, Sheldon Richardson, and Leonard Williams. However, letting an asset like Wilkerson get away for nothing isn’t great business, which is why he has been viewed as an intriguing tag-and-trade candidate for New York.
Elsewhere in the AFC East, the Bills and Dolphins don’t have a ton of cap flexibility, which could affect their decisions on offensive tackle Cordy Glenn and defensive end Olivier Vernon, respectively. There are ways for Buffalo and Miami to create the space necessary to tag their free-agents-to-be, but 
both teams already have plenty of highly-paid veterans on their books, so the decisions aren’t no-brainers. I think Glenn, at least, is slightly more likely than not to be tagged, but both players could conceivably reach the open market.
Safety Eric Berry had a tremendous comeback season in 2015, and it would put something of a damper on that story for the Chiefs to allow him to sign elsewhere next month. A $10MM+ price tag for a safety isn’t cheap, but it’s a more affordable tag than most positions, so I think Kansas City will have to strongly consider using it if the team can’t agree on a longer-term contract with Berry. As last year’s negotiations with Justin Houston showed, the Chiefs aren’t afraid to franchise a player, then work out a multiyear pact with him later in the offseason.
One position that’s significantly cheaper than safety is kicker, where Corry projects a salary in the $4.5MM range. The Ravens and Justin Tucker have reportedly been negotiating a potential extension for over a year, but with the franchise deadline approaching, the team isn’t afraid to use a tag on Tucker, if it comes to that.
Long shots:
The Jets want to extend Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Eagles have spoken highly of Sam Bradford, but it appears unlikely that either quarterback will get franchised. At least one report has indicated that the Eagles aren’t expected to use their franchise tag to retain Bradford, and a price tag of nearly $20MM seems too high for Fitzpatrick.
Like Fitzpatrick, Buccaneers running back Doug Martin is a player whose team badly wants to re-sign him, but may view the franchise tag salary as too high. For running backs, the tag could be worth nearly $12MM, which would make Martin the second-highest-paid RB in the NFL – behind Adrian Peterson – by a comfortable margin. For a player who has been as inconsistent as Martin, that seems excessive.
A handful of offensive linemen are possible candidates to be tagged by their respective teams, including Kelechi Osemele (Ravens), Russell Okung (Seahawks), Mitchell Schwartz (Browns), Kelvin Beachum (Steelers), and Andre Smith (Bengals). However, I’d be a little surprised if even one of those five got the franchise tag. Since there’s only one price tag for all offensive linemen, the projected salary ($13.678MM) is left-tackle money, and Osemele, Schwartz, and Smith haven’t seen much – if any – playing time at left tackle. As for Okung and Beachum, I’m skeptical that their teams will want to invest too heavily in them, since they haven’t been consistently healthy and elite in recent years.
If the Broncos strike a long-term deal with Miller soon, it would free up the franchise tag for quarterback Brock Osweiler or defensive end Malik Jackson. Even in the unlikely event that Miller and the Broncos agree to terms quickly though, the franchise salaries for Osweiler and Jackson may be a little too high.
Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul got the franchise tag last year, but it’ll be pricier this season, and obviously there are more question marks this time around, given the state of his right hand. As such, I don’t think he’s a real candidate to be tagged, despite New York’s significant cap space. Bengals safety Reggie Nelson seems like a similar long-shot — he had another good season in 2015, earning his first Pro Bowl nod, but it would be surprising to see a team commit $10MM+ to a 33-year-old safety.
Finally, Tucker isn’t the only kicker or punter who has a shot to be tagged. Jaguars punter Bryan Anger, Raiders punter Marquette King, and Packers kicker Mason Crosby are among the other special teams candidates. They’re all less likely than Tucker to be franchised, but the Jags and Raiders have the most cap room in the NFL, so they could certainly afford it.
Extra Points: Broncos, Bears, Dolphins
A look around the NFL as Saturday wraps up:
- Whether the Broncos bring back DeMarcus Ware next season might depend on if they can get a deal done with free agent-to-be Malik Jackson, tweets Troy Renck of The Denver Post. Both pass rushers have been important cogs in the Broncos’ dominant defense, but the salary cap could preclude the Super Bowl champions from retaining the pair. At 26, Jackson is significantly younger than Ware, who will enter his age-34 season. Further, releasing Ware would add $10MM to the Broncos’ cap for 2016. That money could obviously be put toward re-signing Jackson. If Denver does cut ties with Ware, his two-year stint with the team will have ended with a 3.5-sack playoff run. Two of those sacks came in the Broncos’ Super Bowl 50 victory over Carolina.
- If the Bears determine that tight end Martellus Bennett is a holdout threat, they’ll start shopping him around the league next month, writes Chris Boden of CSNChicago.com. A holdout wouldn’t be unheard of for Bennett, who sat out the voluntary portion of the Bears’ offseason program last year in an effort to land a better contract. The Bears didn’t bite then, and it doesn’t sound as though they’d blink in the event of a hypothetical Bennett holdout this year. If Chicago shops the soon-to-be 29-year-old – as it did last offseason – and ends up unable to find a taker, the team could cut him and save nearly $5.2MM on its cap in 2016. Bennett’s status is one of many points touched on by PFR’s Dallas Robinson in his offseason preview of the Bears, which can be found here.
- Regardless of whether they keep Brent Grimes, the Dolphins hope to add at least two new cornerbacks this offseason, reports Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. The team cut corner Brice McCain on Friday and could also send Jamar Taylor packing, according to Jackson. Doing so would save Miami just shy of $900,000 on its cap next season.
Offseason Outlook: Chicago Bears
Pending free agents:
- Sam Acho, OLB
- Alan Ball, CB
- Nick Becton, T (RFA)
- Josh Bellamy, WR (ERFA)
- Vlad Ducasse, G
- Matt Forte, RB
- Rob Housler, TE
- Alshon Jeffery, WR
- Jarvis Jenkins, DE
- Marc Mariani, WR
- Sherrod Martin, S
- Shea McClellin, ILB
- Sherrick McManis, CB
- Zach Miller, TE
- Will Montgomery, C
- Ryan Mundy, S
- Patrick Omameh, G (RFA)
- Tracy Porter, CB
- Chris Prosinski, S
- LaRoy Reynolds, ILB (RFA)
- Jacquizz Rodgers, RB
- Deonte Thompson, WR (RFA)
- Mitch Unrein, DT
Top 15 cap hits for 2016:
- Jay Cutler, QB: $17,000,000
- Jermon Bushrod, T: $8,700,000
- Pernell McPhee, OLB: $7,675,000
- Lamarr Houston, OLB: $6,990,000
- Martellus Bennett, TE: $6,310,000
- Eddie Royal, WR: $4,500,000
- Robbie Gould, K: $4,100,000
- Kevin White, WR: $3,764,329
- Matt Slauson, G: $3,405,000
- Willie Young, OLB: $3,166,668
- Antrel Rolle, S: $2,718,750
- Kyle Fuller, CB: $2,641,909
- Kyle Long, T: $2,641,212
- Tim Jennings, CB: $1,500,000 (dead money)
- Eddie Goldman, DT: $1,292,344
Notable coaching/front office changes:
- Offensive coordinator: Promoted QBs coach Dowell Loggains to replace Adam Gase, who left to become Dolphins’ HC.
- Quarterbacks coach: Hired Dave Ragone to replace Dowell Loggains.
Draft:
- No. 11 overall pick
- Acquired sixth-round pick from Patriots in deal for LB Jon Bostic.
- Acquired conditional sixth-round pick from Panthers in deal for DE Jared Allen.
- Conditions aren’t known, but likely were met.
Other:
- Current projected cap room (via Over the Cap): $51.6MM
- Must exercise or decline fifth-year option for 2017 for T Kyle Long.
Overview:
2015 was largely billed as a rebuilding year for the Bears, and while a 6-10 record is certainly indicative of such a process, you’d be hard-pressed to find Chicago fans who weren’t — at the least — encouraged by last season’s outcome (and are now more enthused about the future). And a large chunk of that excitement, undoubtedly, is due to the successful ’15 campaign of quarterback Jay Cutler.
If you’ll think back to last season, Cutler’s fate with the Bears seemed to be sealed — he was benched by the previous Chicago regime at the end of the 2014 season, and subsequently, was anything but endorsed by new head coach John Fox and new general manager Ryan Pace. Speaking at last year’s combine, neither decision-maker fully committed to Cutler, and he was widely reported to be on the trade block.
But with the help of new offensive coordinator Adam Gase, Cutler rebounded, posting the lowest full-season interception total of his career, tossing 21 touchdowns, and finishing as a top-10 quarterback in Football Outsiders’ DYAR metric. Gase has since departed to become the Dolphins head coach, but with Cutler confidant Dowell Loggains having been promoted to play-caller, the quarterback position in Chicago seems to be set, at least for the time being.
On the other side of the ball, the Bears defense finished 14th in yards, 20th in scoring, but 31st in DVOA (they were 28th in weighted DVOA — which places more emphasis on the team’s most recent games — meaning the unit got slightly better as the year progressed). The numbers aren’t great, but given that Chicago is somewhat devoid of talent of talent on defense, they actually speak pretty well of defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.
It’s an important offseason for Pace and the rest of the Bears front office, so let’s take a look at what lies in store for Chicago over the next several months.
Key Free Agents:
Topping the list of Chicago’s free agents is receiver Alshon Jeffery, who despite missing seven games with nagging injuries, still managed to have a very productive season (at least on a rate basis). He caught four touchdowns in his starts, and managed nearly 90 yards receiving per game, good for eighth in the league. Jeffery will turn just 26 years old on Valentine’s Day, and as the best receiver available on the open market — and the No. 2 overall free agent in our most recent power rankings — he’s certainly set up for a big payday.
Threatening that contract potential, of course, is the Bears’ option to tender Jeffery the franchise tag, and retain him on a one-year deal at a cost of $14MM+. The incentives for a extension are obvious for both parties — financial security for Jeffery, retaining its best offensive weapon/lower initial cap charges for Chicago — but it’s not a certainty that a deal gets done. For their part, the Bears sound amenable to a long-term contract, but speaking last month, Jeffery didn’t sound quite as enthusiastic about such a pact.
Comps are available whether Jeffery seeks a five-year deal (like Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, and Julio Jones) or a four-year contract (like A.J. Green). Green, at $15MM annually, received a higher AAV than did the five-year deal cadre, but garnered a much lower guarantee. His $26.75MM in guarantees pales in comparison the five-year trio, each of whom received at least $30MM in guaranteed money. Personally, I’d guess that Jeffery would push for the longer contract and thus the higher guarantee — with his injury history, he should probably secure as much money as he can immediately.
Staying among the offensive skill positions, we come to running back Matt Forte, the longest-tenured Bear on the roster with the exception of kicker Robbie Gould. Forte, who turned 30 in December, failed to top 1,000 yards rushing for the first time since 2011, and as he announced earlier today, he won’t be returning to Chicago for a ninth season.
“Despite my wishes, my days as a member of the Chicago Bears have sadly come to an end,” Forte said in an Instagram post. “I was informed earlier this week from the GM that they will not be attempting to re-sign me in free agency. I will remain forever grateful for my time spent in Chicago and being able to play for an organization with such a rich history.
It makes sense that the Bears want to get younger on offense, and the duo of Jeremy Langford and Ka’Deem Carey will likely handle the load in 2016. It could be good news for Forte, as well, as he can seek to latch on with a surefire contender — he’ll probably find a short-term deal with a new club, and the Patriots look like one early suitor.
Elsewhere on offense, tight end Zach Miller is said to be targeting a $5MM average annual value after a breakout campaign that saw him post career-highs in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. But as PFR’s Luke Adams wrote in that linked post, $5MM could be a tough sell — the Browns’ Gary Barnidge, for example, had better numbers and failed to reach that mark. More likely, the 31-year-old Miller will settle for a lower salary, whether it be with the Bears or another club.
Receiver Marc Mariani — largely a return man to this point in his career — saw his largest role in an offense since 2011, playing on almost 50% of Chicago’s offensive snaps. He’s still a viable special-teamer, but a strong offensive unit probably doesn’t use someone of Mariani’s caliber quite as often. Along the line, Vlad Ducasse started 11 games, and was predictably disappointing, grading as the league’s No. 47 guard, according to Pro Football Focus — the Bears should seek an upgrade.
Let’s move to the defense, where, as noted above, coordinator Vic Fangio didn’t really have the horses, but still coaxed a somewhat respectable performance. Along the defensive line, two ends who saw significant playing time — Jarvis Jenkins and Mitch Unrein — are heading for free agency. Neither was spectacular, and given that I expect the Bears to target line help via either free agency or the draft, I wouldn’t anticipate either being retained as anything more than depth pieces on the veteran’s minimum.
Former first-round pick Shea McClellin has bounced around to several positions along the front seven during his career, but despite all the positional changes, he never seems to find success. He graded out as the league’s No. 88 linebacker among 97 qualifiers, per PFF, and despite McLellin expressing interest in re-signing, it’s time for the Bears to move on. Conversely, Chicago should look to re-sign Sam Acho, who was not only a valuable contributor on special teams, but saw action on 43% of the club’s defensive snaps. He’s always been a personal favorite of mine, and the Bears can once again keep him around via the minimum salary benefit, they should jump at the opportunity.
In the secondary, Tracy Porter spent the entire season as a starting corner opposite Kyle Fuller, but wasn’t overly effective, and the Bears should definitely look for an upgrade. Alan Ball, Chris Prosinski, and Sherrod Martin (the latter of whom was recently singled out by Jeff Dickerson of ESPN.com) can all be replaced by younger, cheaper options. Meanwhile, Dickerson did advocate for Chicago to re-sign cornerback Sherrick McManis, who is a special teams ace.
Possible Cap Casualties:
Fresh off the beast season of his career in 2014, tight end Martellus Bennett disappointed in 2015 for a number of reasons. He was never fully healthy, and he missed five games while posting his lowest yards per reception since 2010. Additionally, there were reports that Bennett was unhappy not only with his contract, but with his role in the Bears’ offense (claims that his agent and GM Ryan Pace have since denied).
Assuming that Alshon Jeffery is retained and Matt Forte is not, Bennett figures to be the second-best weapon on the Chicago offense, and his 2016 cap charge of $6.31MM is more than reasonable. So his status really comes down to his relationship with the club, something that’s hard for us to judge. Jeff Dickerson of ESPN.com recently argued for the Bears to trade Bennett, and if the reports of the rift are accurate, and another club is willing to part with draft compensation, I suppose that’s an option. Releasing Bennett would save Chicago $5.185MM against the cap, and if that happens, it would be clear the relationship had soured.
Left tackle Jermon Bushrod will almost certainly be released after a 2015 campaign that saw him lose his starting job to former seventh-round pick Charles Leno. Designating Bushrod as a post-June 1 cut would make some sense, as that move would spread his dead money out over two seasons ($2.2MM in both ’16 and ’17). But given that the Bears are flush with cap space, I’d expect them to bite the bullet and take the full $4.4MM hit immediately.
Having played in only seven games due to injury issues, 33-year-old safety Antrel Rolle would make sense a release candidate. However, Rolle’s contract was structured in such a way that his cap numbers for both 2016 and 2017 are quite low (~$2.71MM next season). The deal has no dead money remaining, so Chicago would clear his entire cap hit, but the secondary is so devoid of talent that I’d expect the club to take another chance with Rolle, a former first-round pick and Pro Bowler. Larry Meyer of ChicagoBears.com last month profiled Rolle and his determination to rebound in 2016.
Defensive end/linebacker Lamarr Houston was rumored to be on the trade block last season, and I wonder if that thought could cross the Bears’ decision-makers’ minds once again. Houston wasn’t great in his transition from 4-3 defensive end to 3-4 outside linebacker, so a switch back to a 4-3 scheme might do him good. A trade (or a pre-June 1 cut) would give the Bears more than $4MM in cap savings, so it’s a move they’ll probably consider.
Positions Of Need:
The Bears enter the 2016 offseason with $51.6MM in projected cap space, good for fourth in the NFL (for now), and I expect the team to be active in free agency. General manager Ryan Pace has said as much, noting that his club will need to use free agency to augment their roster due to team needs. However, Pace has also said that he doesn’t expect Chicago to use its excess cap room to pursue a high-profile free agent, preferring to spread the wealth and bring in several players at reasonable values.
Most every area of need in Chicago comes on the defensive side of the ball, so let’s go ahead and get the offense out of the way. Presuming Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett are retained and 2015 first-rounder Kevin White comes back healthy, the Bears should be mostly set on offense. They will need to replace Vlad Ducasse at left guard, but I don’t expect them to spend at the top of the market to do so. If Alex Boone‘s price comes down, I could see him landing in Chicago, and the recently-released Geoff Schwartz could also make some sense.
The most pressing needs are on defense, starting with linebacker. The most obvious candidate to help at that spot is Broncos free agent Danny Trevathan, who has already stated he expects interest from the Bears based on his relationship and familiarity with John Fox. Fellow Denver linebacker Brandon Marshall is also a free agent, albeit one of the restricted variety. The Broncos will likely place a first- or second-round tender on Marshall, making Trevathan the preferred option.
Trevathan alone probably won’t cut it, as Chicago could use two new starting inside linebackers. It’s a cheap position, so if the Bears want to use free agency for both replacements instead of using a draft pick, they can. Veteran Joe Mays shouldn’t cost much on a one-year deal (and like Trevathan, has a history with Fox), while the Browns’ Craig Robertson or the Titans’ Zach Brown — each of whom excels in pass coverage — could also be targeted.
Adding another edge defender also wouldn’t hurt, and while the dream scenario is luring Super Bowl MVP Von Miller to Chicago, that simply is not going to happen, as Miller will either re-sign with Denver or get the franchise tag. The Bears could take a flyer on someone like Nick Perry or Courtney Upshaw, each of whom were relatively high draft picks who have failed to live up to their billing. The draft could also aid here, as Matt Miller of Bleacher Report has the Bears selecting Georgia’s Leonard Floyd in the first round of his most recent mock draft.
Along the defensive line, Chicago is probably set at nose tackle with Eddie Goldman, though the 49ers’ Ian Williams has a history with defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Williams could conceivably shift to end in the Bears’ scheme, but he’ll be expensive, as he’s just 26 years old and is coming off a ver solid season.
At end, Muhammad Wilkerson will likely be franchised, and while he’s thought to be a trade candidate, I don’t think the Bears would (or should) give up their first-round pick – and pony up the extension money – for Wilkerson, who is coming off a broken leg. Instead, I expect Chicago to target Malik Jackson based on his history with Fox. Jackson won’t be cheap, and given the recent extensions inked by 3-4 defensive ends, he’s surely targeting a $11MM yearly value.
Ideally, the Bears would use the majority of their cap space on improving their front seven, and then use the draft and/or the second and third waves of free agency to solidify the back end. Chicago can make do with Kyle Fuller, Tracy Porter (if re-signed), Antrel Rolle, and Adrian Amos in the secondary, but adding another piece at either corner or safety wouldn’t be a bad idea. Josh Robinson could be intriguing at corner, while Rashad Johnson could be a target at safety.
Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:
Kyle Long has been named to the Pro Bowl in each of his three seasons in the league, and having transitioned from guard to tackle prior to the 2015 campaign, he’s now been to the all-star game at two positions. His 2017 fifth-year option will be exercised, and the Bears can begin working towards an extension immediately.
Long’s extension case is an interesting one given his recent positional change, but there is a recent example that is somewhat similar to Long’s situation — Eagles tackle Lane Johnson. Johnson, of course, has spent the entirety of his career on the right side, but his new five-year, $56.26MM contract was clearly negotiated with the assumption that he’ll replace Jason Peters at left tackle in due time.
It’s not clear if the Bears plan to move Long to the left side at some point, but as John Mullin of CSNChicago.com wrote last week, Long is set up for a big payday regardless. He should be able to surpass every other right tackle besides Johnson in terms of yearly value and guarantee, and if the plan is to eventually move Long to the blind side (and that plan is communicated to Long’s representation), he could match – or surpass – Johnson’s extension.
Overall Outlook:
The Bears can’t afford regression from their offense, as their defense – barring a complete turnaround – figures to once again be a weak point. Retaining Alshon Jeffery and investing more in the offensive line will only buoy Jay Cutler‘s production, and if the defense can finish as, say, a top 20 unit by DVOA, Chicago probably won’t go 6-10 again. The NFC North is a tough division, and Green Bay and Minnesota once again look like the favorites, but pending a solid offseason, it’s not out of the question that the Bears could compete for a Wild Card spot.
Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.