HEADLINES

Chris Johnson Shot, Expected To Be OK

March 8th, 2015 at 12:02pm CST by Rory Parks

Former Jets and Titans running back Chris Johnson was shot in the arm last night and is currently recovering in an Orlando hospital, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (via Twitter). The Jets declined to pick up Johnson’s 2015 option last month, making him an unrestricted free agent.

Rapoport adds in a separate tweet that Johnson was riding in a car with a few friends when the car was hit by gunfire. Rich Cimini of ESPNNewYork.com tweets that one of Johnson’s friends was killed in the shooting, and no arrests have been made at this time.

LeSean McCoy, Bills Agree To New Contract

March 8th, 2015 at 11:41am CST by Ben Levine

SUNDAY, 11:41am: ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweets that McCoy and the Bills have agreed on a new five-year deal worth $40MM. McCoy will receive $26.5MM guaranteed and will earn $16MM in 2015. The deal will be finalized when the trade is made official on Tuesday.

SATURDAY, 12:21pm: Following reports that LeSean McCoy wasn’t thrilled about being traded to the Bills, the All-Pro running back may now have a reason to smile. Fox Sports’ Mike Garafolo reports (via Twitter) that the two sides are “close” on a new contract, which is expected to be finalized prior to the trade becoming official on Tuesday.

The 26-year-old was acquired by Buffalo earlier in the week in exchange for linebacker Kiko Alonso. The running back still had two years left on his contract (worth $6.9MM and $7.6MM), and he was estimated to count for $10.25MM against the team’s cap in 2015. While details on a new contract haven’t been reported, it can be assumed McCoy didn’t take too drastic (if any) of a pay cut. His sudden willingness to stick around Buffalo for the foreseeable future indicates that the veteran doesn’t have any qualms about his new deal, which also means the Bills probably paid him handsomely. NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport previously reported that the two sides would try to negotiate a new contract, with the intention of giving McCoy some guaranteed money beyond next season.

Following a career season in 2013, McCoy followed that up with a solid 2014 campaign. The running back finished the season with 1,319 rushing yards and five touchdowns, while also adding 28 receptions for 155 yards (both career-lows). Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required) weren’t as impressed with McCoy’s production this past season, as they ranked him as the third-lowest running back in the NFL (right in front of Knile Davis and Matt Asiata).

East Notes: Maclin, Gore, Clay

March 8th, 2015 at 11:34am CST by Rory Parks

There are a number of rumblings from the league’s east divisions today, so let’s dive right in:

  • We learned earlier today that Randall Cobb‘s decision to remain with the Packers would give the Eagles‘ Jeremy Maclin a little more leverage in his contract negotiations, and Geoff Mosher of CSNPhilly.com has a little more on that front. Mosher writes that Maclin, who has asked for at least $11MM per season, is clearly the best wide receiver left on the free agent market, but the fact that he is two years older than Cobb and has torn his ACL twice since the start of his college career could deter teams from handing Maclin the same type of contract that Cobb received. Therefore, Mosher believes the stage could be set for Maclin’s return to Philadelphia.
  • Eliot Shorr-Parks of NJ.com writes that the Eagles are interested in free agent running back Frank Gore and says that a deal could be done as soon as Tuesday.
  • The Bills are expected to make a “substantial offer” to Dolphins tight end Charles Clay, writes Omar Kelly of the Sun-Sentinel. Miami placed the transition tag on Clay last week.
  • Rich Cimini of ESPNNewYork.com has a deeper look into the Jets‘ trade for Brandon Marshall and what it means for the team moving forward.
  • In the same piece, Cimini looks at the future of Darrelle Revis. Cimini writes that the Jets will almost certainly try to overpay for Revis, who will have to choose between the mega-bucks in New York and a lifetime membership in Patriots owner Robert Kraft‘s fraternity.
  • Washington and the Giants have both expressed interest in Arizona nose tackle Dan Williams (Twitter links to ESPN’s John Keim and Dan Graziano).

Updates On Maxwell And McCourty

March 8th, 2015 at 10:09am CST by Rory Parks

We learned last night that the Eagles would be aggressive suitors for prospective free agents Devin McCourty and Byron Maxwell, and the team seems to be especially active in its pursuit of Maxwell. Rand Getlin of Yahoo! Sports tweeted yesterday that the Eagles were “out in front” for Maxwell, and Getlin added (via Twitter) this morning that Philadelphia is willing to give Maxwell a deal worth over $10MM a year, which would be a somewhat surprising top-of-the-market offer.

If Philadelphia displays the same aggressiveness with McCourty, they may be able to land him as well. As Mike Reiss of ESPNBoston.com writes, the Patriots would love to have McCourty back, but if the bidding goes much higher than $8MM per season, New England may have to bow out. We heard yesterday that McCourty is seeking at least $9MM per year, which Jairus Byrd was able to land last season. PFR’s Luke Adams predicted yesterday that McCourty, who has been a consistently productive defensive back over the course of his career, would be able to make at least as much.

The Giants are also reported to have interest in McCourty, but Dan Graziano of ESPN.com tweets that the team may be more interested in addressing its defensive line in free agency. As of right now, the smart money seems to be on the Eagles using a big chunk of their newfound $36MM in cap space to boost their secondary with both McCourty and Maxwell.

 

Dolphins Front-Runners For Suh?

March 8th, 2015 at 9:33am CST by Rory Parks

PFR’s Luke Adams wrote last night that one “high-placed source” is confident that standout defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh will land with the Dolphins, and Charles Robinson of Yahoo! Sports lends even more credence to the Suh-to-Miami rumors. Robinson tweets that “multiple league sources” definitively believe that Suh will be plugging the middle of the Dolphins’ defensive line for the foreseeable future.

Robinson adds that Suh’s deal is expected to set a new league record for the amount of guaranteed money given to a defensive player, which will not come as a surprise to anyone. The Texans gave J.J. Watt a six-year deal worth over $100MM last season, with nearly $52MM of that guaranteed, and Suh’s next contract was always expected to at least match that figure.

The Dolphins, of course, have been major players in the free agent market in recent seasons, but they have yet to enjoy much on-field success during that time. Although Branden Albert was playing at a high level before being placed on IR last season, Mike Wallace and Dannell Ellerbe have been disappointments for Miami in a number of ways, and the teams that spend the most money in free agency are rarely among the legitimate contenders when the season draws to a close.

As such, it may be difficult for Dolphins fans to get especially excited about this development, but Suh’s talent is undeniable. Although the financial commitment is an obvious risk, Mike Freeman of Bleacher Report correctly points out that Suh is one of those rare players who is probably worth that risk. As a dominant interior lineman who can stop a running game in its tracks and get after the passer, Suh alone could give Miami enough of a lift to contend for a playoff spot in 2015. And he does not seem to be the type of player who will rest on his laurels after getting a big payday.

So while the Dolphins have learned all too well what the term caveat emptor means over the past several offseasons, it would be tough to criticize their decision to sign Suh.

Fallout From Randall Cobb Deal

March 8th, 2015 at 8:26am CST by Rory Parks

Randall Cobb‘s decision to remain in Green Bay on a four-year, $40MM contract has had an impact on a number of teams in the league, especially those with a need at the wide receiver position. Let’s take a look at some of the fallout from the Cobb deal:

  • The Chargers were “real players” for Cobb, tweets Kevin Acee of U-T San Diego. However, they were prepared for the Packers to re-sign Cobb before the star slot receiver could hit the open market. It is unclear if the Chargers, who have a number of irons in the fire at the moment, will consider a run at Jeremy Maclin or Torrey Smith.
  • Confirming what we heard last night, Scott Bair of CSNBayArea.com reports that Cobb had been one of the Raiders‘ top free agent targets. With plenty of money to spend, Oakland will continue its attempts to upgrade its wide receiving corps in free agency and the draft. If the Raiders cannot land one of the top free agents still on the board, second-tier options like Michael Crabtree, Cecil Shorts, and Kenny Britt could be options.
  • Chris Boden of CSNChicago.com wonders if the Cobb deal will “force the Bears into a greater focus to consider a change-of-pace, over-the-top receiver in the first three rounds of the NFL draft.” Boden notes that the team really needs someone to take the pressure off Alshon Jeffery now that Brandon Marshall is in New York, and the only true deep threat left in free agency is Baltimore’s Smith.
  • ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweets that Cobb’s lucrative deal is a win for Smith and Maclin, who now have more leverage as they seek their next contract.
  • Smith was already expected to leave the Ravens, as Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun reports, but now Wilson would not be surprised if Smith’s next deal approached the $10MM average annual value that Cobb received from Green Bay.

FA Rumors: Bulaga, McCourty, Suh, Raiders

March 7th, 2015 at 11:36pm CST by Luke Adams

While the Packers were able to retain one of their top two free agents tonight, reaching an agreement to bring back wide receiver Randall Cobb, the team may end up losing tackle Bryan Bulaga, writes Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

Two league sources tell Silverstein that Bulaga is seeking a contract worth at least $7-8MM per year, and has a good chance of landing such a deal. Per one of Silverstein’s sources, Green Bay isn’t interested in paying $7MM+ annually for Bulaga, and would let him walk if the bidding got that high. The Buccaneers, the Jaguars, and Washington are believed to have interest in the free agent tackle.

Here’s more from around the league on what has been a busy Saturday:

  • According to Jason Cole of Bleacher Report (via Twitter), safety Devin McCourty is seeking an annual salary of $9MM per year, like what Jairus Byrd got a year ago. When I listed McCourty as 2015’s second-best free agent earlier today, I noted that if Byrd could land $9MM per year, the Pats safety should be able to do just as well on the open market.
  • Cole also has an update on Ndamukong Suh, tweeting that one high-placed source is confident that Suh will end up with the Dolphins, while a second source says the Lions are the only other team involved in the bidding. Given how rare it is for a player of Suh’s caliber to reach the open market, I’d be pretty surprised if only two teams were pursuing him, but multiple reports over the last several days have identified Miami and Detroit as the frontrunners.
  • Cobb had been high on the Raiders‘ list of wide receiver targets, but now that he’s off the market, Bill Williamson of ESPN.com (Twitter link) says the team will likely shift its focus to Jeremy Maclin, Torrey Smith, and – if and when he becomes available – Percy Harvin.
  • The Texans have interest in quarterbacks Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer, and it may not be an either/or proposition for the team, according to John McClain of the Houston Chronicle, who tweets that the club would like to sign both players.
  • The Cowboys have elected not to tender a contract offer to cornerback Sterling Moore, meaning he’ll be an unrestricted free agent rather than an RFA, writes Todd Archer of ESPNDallas.com.

Cards, Saints Vying For Sean Weatherspoon

March 7th, 2015 at 11:16pm CST by Sam Robinson

11:16pm: According to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, the Cardinals have some competition for Weatherspoon. Florio reports that the veteran linebacker is expected to eventually land with either the Cards or the Saints.

5:45pm: Former Falcons linebacker Sean Weatherspoon is considering a move to Arizona to join the Cardinals, tweets Yahoo Sports’ Rand Getlin.

Weatherspoon, a 2010 first-round pick, missed most of the past two seasons with Achilles and foot injuries, respectively, but was seen as a priority (Twitter link) for Atlanta. The Falcons remain interested in keeping their injury-prone tackler, however, per the Atlanta Journal Constitution.

After playing both inside and outside in the Falcons’ 4-3 scheme, Weatherspoon would be a fit inside in the Cardinals’ 3-4 look. The former Missouri linebacker had 86 tackles and four sacks in 2011, but that was the only season Weatherspoon played all 16 games.

The Cardinals have just $13MM+ in cap space, per OverTheCap, with nose tackle Dan Williams set to draw a healthy raise as free agency nears.

Offseason Outlook: Green Bay Packers

March 7th, 2015 at 11:12pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Aaron Rodgers, QB: $18,250,000
  2. Clay Matthews, OLB: $12,700,000
  3. Julius Peppers, OLB: $12,000,000
  4. Sam Shields, CB: $9,062,500
  5. Josh Sitton, G: $7,000,000
  6. T.J. Lang, G: $5,800,000
  7. Morgan Burnett, S: $5,131,250
  8. Jordy Nelson, WR: $4,600,000
  9. Mike Neal, DL: $4,250,000
  10. Mason Crosby, K: $3,550,000

*Randall Cobb‘s new contract will likely place him in the Packers’ top 10, but specifics of the deal aren’t yet known.

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 30 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

For most teams in most years, finishing with a 12-4 record and winning the NFC North for the fourth consecutive season would be considered a resounding success. But in Green Bay, the final snap of the 2014 season is all that posterity will remember, as the Packers coughed up a 12-point fourth quarter lead to the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game before losing in overtime. One of the main culprits in that loss — tight end Brandon Bostick, who mishandled an onside kick recovery — has already been waived, but that surely wasn’t enough to appease disgruntled Packers fans.

The Packers have already been active this offeason — earlier tonight, the club agreed to a four-year, $40MM contract with pending free agent receiver Randall Cobb, keeping PFR’s No. 3 free agent from hitting the open market. The versatile 24-year-old was Green Bay’s top free agent, but the team has other need areas to upgrade. Free agency is anathema to general manager Ted Thompson (although he did sign big-ticket item Julius Peppers last offseason), so while the Packers likely won’t make many outside additions, they will look to retain their own FAs, and perhaps explore a few long-term extensions.

Key Free Agents

Now that Cobb has been taken care of, the Packers can focus on Bryan Bulaga, the club’s other key free agent. Bulaga may not have the name value of Cobb, but along with Denver’s Orlando Franklin, he represents the cream of the crop amBryan Bulaga (Vertical)ong free agent tackles, a FA position group that has already been thinned by King Dunlap and Derek Newton re-signing with their respective clubs. Bulaga, who will turn 26 later this month, graded as the league’s 16th-best tackle among 84 qualifiers per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), with most of his value coming from his exceptional pass-blocking.

Green Bay wants to keep its right tackle, and even with Cobb’s new deal in place, the Packers should still have the cap room available to get something done. But there will definitely be other suitors, and I can’t shake the feeling that another interested team will ink Bulaga with the intention of transitioning him back to left tackle, the position he played in college. With next to no free agent talent available on the left side, could a team like the Panthers sign Bulaga and throw him on Cam Newton‘s blindside? It’s possible, and given that Bulaga is likely to match or exceed the five-year, $35MM deal PFR’s Rory Parks projected for him last month, the Packers will have to compete to keep him.

While Bulaga will generate most of the headlines, the Packers have other key players headed for free agency, and two reside in the defensive backfield. Tramon Williams is the elder of two, and the soon-to-be 32-year-old has already drawn interest from the Seahawks as they plan for life after Byron Maxwell. Green Bay is said to have offered Williams, who’s spent his entire career with the Packers, a two-year deal worth $8MM — an unserious price which makes it appear as though the club has no intention of retaining him.

The Packers’ other free agent corner — the 25-year-old Davon House — doesn’t have the track record of Williams, but could ultimately command more dollars thanks to his youth. In House’s entry on PFR’s Top 50 list, our Luke Adams expressed some optimism that House, who saw only 411 snaps in 2014, could experience a breakout if given a larger role, and I share the feeling that House has some untapped potential. Green Bay will need to replace Williams in some fashion, and there’s no reason House shouldn’t be the one to fill his shoes.

Elsewhere on the defense, defensive lineman Letroy Guion and B.J. Raji are both scheduled to become free agents on Tuesday, and each faces a unique circumstance. Guion was arrested on drug charges in February, and though probation could reportedly be in the cards, his future is certainly cloudy. If his legal issues are resolved, however, the Packers should look to re-sign him (they expressed interest in doing so in January, before Guion’s arrest), as he was invaluable in ’14 while playing nose tackle.

Raji, meanwhile, faces similarly uncertain prospects, but for an entirely different reason — the former first-round pick missed the entire season after tearing his bicep during the preseason. Last month, we heard that Raji is expected to re-sign with Green Bay on a one-year deal, and he’ll presumably have to take a pay cut from his 2014 net of $4MM. The BC alum was shifting back to nose tackle during last year’s training camp, so we’ll have to see if his status affects that of Guion.

None of the remainder of the Packers’ impending free agents played more than 300 snaps last season, but the club will have to make a decision on a backup quarterback. It seems as though Matt Flynn is more comfortable in Green Bay than he was in either Seattle, Oakland, or Buffalo, and given his play at those other stops, he won’t garner any interest as a starter. Scott Tolzien, meanwhile, has now been in Green Bay for two seasons, and is two years younger, so the Packers could opt to promote him to the No. 2 role. It wouldn’t be a surprise if both are retained.

Possible Cap Casualties

The Packers have already been active in clearing out cap space, as they’ve released linebackers A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones, saving more than $7MM in the process. Green Bay does an excellent job of managing its cap, so unless it wants to cut Mason Crosby ($3.55MM cap hit) and find a new kicker, the club’s only realistic cap casualty could be linebacker Mike Neal.

According to PFF’s metrics, the 27-year-old Neal was the Packers’ worst defender in 2014, and was second-worst in 2013. His 2015 cap charge of $4.25MM is the ninth-highest on Green Bay’s roster, while the team would save $3MM by releasing him. There haven’t been any reports of Neal being on the chopping block, but this is a case where the production doesn’t match the compensation.

Positions Of Need

Through our Outlook series, we’ve now previewed all 32 teams’ offseasons — the following “positions of need” section might feature the least mentions of external pending free agents of any entry so far. Not that the Packers don’t have needs (every club does), but Green Bay simply doesn’t utilize free agency. As detailed by Bill Barnwell of Grantland in a July 2013 article, Thompson had signed just six veteran free agents since taking over as Packers GM in 2005 (adding Peppers and Guion last offseason brings the total to eight).

The one major area where Green Bay could look to upgrade is tight end, where the current depth chart consists of Andrew Quarless and Richard Rodgers — entering his second season, Rodgers could show some improvement, but the position lacks a true playmaker. That could change with the addition of Julius Thomas or Jordan Cameron, the top two TEs available, but neither seems like a Packers-type addition. More likely, Green Bay could take a look at players like Jermaine Gresham or Lance Kendricks, who figure to be more affordable options.

The front seven could also use a few new additions, especially at linebacker — though Hawk and Jones weren’t impact players, they certainly made contributions. The inside linebacker free agent class doesn’t have much to offer, so while GB could target Jasper Brinkley (Vikings) or Kelvin Sheppard (Dolphins), I’d expect them to wait until more notable players are cut during the summer, and snatch up a viable starter. The same goes for the defensive line, where Thompson won’t pay the price of bringing in an big-name addition.

Of course, the Packers could face two new needs — offensive line and corner — pending the outcomes of the Bulaga, Williams, and House negotiations. Each position could become an area of concern if other clubs poach Green Bay’s free agents, but I’d expect the Packers to target both positions through the draft (GB’s offensive line vacancies, in particular, are almost always filled by NCAA players). Along the O-line, Iowa’s Brandon Scherff figures to be off the board by the time Green Bay picks at No. 30, but Stanford’s Andrus Peat, Pitt’s T.J. Clemmings, or Texas A&M’s La’el Collins, each of whom would be an option at right tackle. At corner, the Packers could look at Marcus Peters (Washington) or Kevin Johnson (Wake Forest) in the first round, or perhaps target combine wonder Byron Jones in the second or third round.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues

Green Bay has a fifth-year option on linebacker Nick Perry, the club’s first-round draft choice in 2012. The 24-year-old Perry hasn’t lived up to expectations, as he has yet to top 500 snaps in any one season and has posted just nine sacks in three seasons. The USC product isn’t an integral part of the Packers’ defense, and I doubt that they’ll want to exercise the option and pay Perry more than $7MM.

The Packers could look to sign a pair of other young players to extensions, however, starting with cornerback Casey Hayward. At first glance, Hayward’s future might appear to be tied to that of Williams and/or House — if GB re-signs either one, the need for Hayward might be lessened. However, Hayward is almost exclusively a slot corner, so his role shouldn’t be altered by Green Bay keeping one of its other corners. When healthy, Hayward is one of the most effective slot corners in the NFL — injury concerns have limited his production in recent years, however, so perhaps the Packers could use that missed time as leverage, and re-sign him to a below-market deal now.

Another defender, lineman Mike Daniels, could also be a candidate for a multi-year deal. The 25-year-old Daniels enjoyed his first season as a starter in 2014, finishing as the league’s eighth-best 3-4 defensive end per PFF. The role of a 3-4 DE often isn’t to generate pressure, but for what it’s worth, Daniels has accrued 12 sacks over the past two seasons. He plays a position that doesn’t get paid on the open market, but he could potentially target the five-year, $34MM deal Desmond Bryant signed with the Browns last March.

Overall Outlook

In re-signing Cobb, the Packers have already met this offseason’s most formidable challenge. They have the cap space to keep Bulaga, as well, and new contracts for either Williams or House (or both) would be the next items on the table. The free agent period usually isn’t exciting in Green Bay — but with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, the Packers will be considered division (and perhaps conference) favorites no matter how little they spend in March.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Extra Points: Smith, Dolphins, Ravens

March 7th, 2015 at 10:48pm CST by Sam Robinson

The 49ers reportedly seek to bolster their downfield passing attack with one of the best in the game. Torrey Smith is now a target for San Francisco, ESPN’s Adam Caplan tweets.

A passing game that sputtered beyond chain-mover Anquan Boldin, who they acquired from the Ravens, last season, the 49ers could lose the inconsistent Michael Crabtree and thus have a spot for Smith. The Ravens wideout has never missed a game due to injury in four seasons and posted yards-per-reception averages of 17.4 in 2012 and 2013 — fourth and fifth in the NFL in those years, respectively.

Smith’s deep-ball proficiency waned a bit last year, as the former second-round pick’s per-catch figure slid to 15.7. But the 26-year-old established a new touchdown career high with 11 and would be an upgrade over a 49ers corps that relied on aging Brandon Lloyd for sporadic deep-ball reps last season.

Behind possibly Jeremy Maclin now that Randall Cobb agreed to a deal to stay with the Packers, Smith won’t come cheap on a wideout market that’s now seen its top three players — counting the franchise-tagged Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas — removed.

Some other pieces of information from the free agency “soft opening” …

  • Several league executives reportedly have the Dolphins as the frontrunners for the premier free agent, Ndamukong Suh, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes. The Chargers and Jaguars remain the mix for the 28-year-old defensive tackle. The Dolphins, who have just more than $9MM of cap room, are also targeting mid-level cornerbacks, with Patrick Robinson (Saints), Shareece Wright (Chargers) and Robert McClain (Falcons) on their radar.
  • Washington looked into Chargers corner Marcus Gilchrist and remains in talks with Brian Orakpo, the Washington Post’s Mike Jones summarized. Those talks with Orakpo, who missed nine games with a torn pectoral muscle last year, were lengthy on Saturday.
  • As Smith and Pernell McPhee can probably see more money elsewhere, the Ravens’ free agency hesitancy looks to continue, reports the Baltimore Sun’s Jeff Zrebiec. The Ravens’ top four 2015 cap figures are homegrown players, and that should remain the case with less than $5MM of cap space (OverTheCap).”They are not going to be one of these teams that act like they have money burning a hole in their pocket. … One, they don’t have the cap room to do it, and two, that hasn’t been their M.O. Nobody should expect them to turn into the Miami Dolphins or the Tampa Buccaneers of the past couple of years,” CBS Sports’ Joel Corry told Zrebiec.
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