The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
The 2018 NFL season gets underway tonight, and the writers at Pro Football Rumors have weighed in with projections for the upcoming year. We’ve predicted which teams will earn playoff berths, which clubs will win their respective conferences, the Super Bowl champion, and the winners of the league’s major awards.
Click on the table below for predictions from Zach Links, Ben Levine, Andrew Ortenberg, Rory Parks, Dallas Robinson, and Sam Robinson. And please head to the comments section to chime in with your own prognostications for the 2018 NFL season!
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff over the past week:
While the Rams and Aaron Donald continue to engage in dialogue toward an extension the interior defender’s sought for nearly two years, extension talks between the Raiders and Khalil Mack aren’t believed to be progressing.
As of late July, the Raiders reportedly hadn’t made Mack an offer, which is rather odd given the 2016 defensive player of the year’s importance to the franchise. While Vic Tafur of The Athletic notes (subscription required) the team did make an offer in the spring, one Mack rejected, he adds these talks have unfolded at a “glacial” pace. However, Tafur writes neither Mark Davis nor Reggie McKenzie has made it known the Raiders plan to collect the $2MM-plus in fines Mack’s incurred for missing every mandatory Raiders activity this offseason. That would be a step toward the sides salvaging their relationship.
This standoff has dragged on to the point Las Vegas oddsmakers set the odds against Mack being on the Raiders after the midseason trade deadline. Is that the way the 27-year-old defender’s Raiders chapter will end?
Teams are calling the Raiders, some making repeat inquiries, about Mack’s trade availability. The edge rusher-desperate Jets are one of them. Vegas places the Packers — who hold two 2019 first-round picks — as a better bet to employ Mack by November than the Raiders, with the Bears and Jets listed as the other top destinations. A Mack trade would net the Raiders a surely substantial haul, but this franchise for years struggled to find players of Mack’s caliber in the first place.
With Mack being one of the best defenders in Raiders history, an Oakland exit would be seismic. It could signal the Raiders either may not be fully committed to paying for top talent, but the 2016 free agency period featured plenty of Raiders money going into free agents’ bank accounts and the ’17 offseason saw Davis authorize extensions for Derek Carr and Gabe Jackson.
Gruden made comments early this offseason about the Raiders previously a poor defensive team with Mack. While that isn’t inaccurate, given recent Raider editions struggling defensively, removing Mack from this unit would pose a problem for the team’s ability to pressure quarterbacks.
The Raiders guaranteed Carr $70MM, and Tafur notes it is probably going to take more to secure a long-term commitment from Mack. Von Miller received $70MM guaranteed from the Broncos in 2016, but with the salary cap sitting $22MM north of where it was then, it should be expected Mack and Donald are aiming higher. The Raiders’ potential lack of wherewithal to pay Mack that kind of guarantee has surfaced, but nothing concrete’s been reported on that front. But that would raise another set of questions for a franchise that recently accepted a record $750MM in public money to relocate to Vegas.
McKenzie doesn’t expect Mack to report without a contract, but the fifth-year veteran’s tied to $13.8MM fifth-year option. The Raiders have leverage here. And the franchise tag option for 2019 and ’20 exists if the Silver and Black wanted to play this that way, though considering Mack’s held out this long, that may not be a viable path. Considering how bad the Raiders have been for most of the past 15 years, sending off their best player just as the team prepares to leave its original market for a second time would not create the best atmosphere as the Jon Gruden 2.0 era begins.
So, how will this end? Will the Raiders get this deal done? Will Mack cave at the prospect of missing out on a sizable chunk of his 2018 salary? Or, is a divorce inevitable? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts (and possible trade destinations) in the comments section.
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
The Bills started A.J. McCarron at quarterback Friday night in Cleveland after giving Nathan Peterman the initial start of the preseason. For a playoff team, Buffalo’s proceeded in interesting fashion and has three unique choices to start going into the regular season.
In trading the quarterback who helped them snap major North American sports’ longest playoff drought, the Bills look to be less equipped to make a playoff run this season. Tyrod Taylor had his share of detractors, and the new Bills regime was obviously not sold he was anything more than a stopgap, but his three years’ worth of starter experience represented a higher floor than any of the team’s current options.
So, Buffalo appears to be in a worse spot at sports’ premier job entering the 2018 season. The Bills, who have Las Vegas’ second-worst odds to win Super Bowl LIII, appear to have willingly taken a step back in hopes of reloading for the future.
They signed McCarron to seemingly be the bridge to whatever quarterback they chose in Round 1, which turned out to be Josh Allen. But the fifth-year passer has yet to seize the role. McCarron is still competing with Peterman, the latter having looked better than the higher-paid ex-Bengal during several junctures of the offseason. But McCarron signed a two-year, $8.1MM contract. Peterman has three years left on his rookie deal.
While the 2017 fifth-round pick endured last season’s most disastrous start, his five-interception outing in Los Angeles, he’s clearly shown more as an NFL sophomore. But can the Bills turn back to him after that start and having made two bigger investments at QB?
Explaining why McCarron and Peterman were going to receive first-team work over Allen to start camp, Brandon Beane said the team was committed to giving his team’s veterans the best chance to win this season. But the Bills are not expected to contend in 2018. And they made multiple first-round trades up to select Allen at No. 7. If he shows increased NFL readiness during the preseason’s remainder, would a rebuilding team throw the mid-major prodigy into action early?
So, should the Bills open the season with McCarron, finally giving Andy Dalton’s longtime backup a real chance to prove he’s an NFL starter? Or should Peterman’s improved offseason grant him a second chance? Should the Bills throw a curveball and begin the Allen era now? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section!
The Browns and Dez Bryant are meeting today, but each side has reservations about a potential union. Bryant ducked the Browns’ phone calls for a while and only got in touch with the Browns after GM John Dorsey disclosed that to the public. The Browns, meanwhile, aren’t completely sold on Bryant being a good fit for them. 
The Browns’ internal conflict is understandable as Bryant’s star has faded considerably in recent years. After averaging 91 catches for 1,312 yards and 14 touchdowns between 2012 and 2014, his averages plummeted to 50 catches for 678 yards and 6 TDs over the last three years. He also missed ten games due to injury between 2015 and 2016, and some say he wasn’t giving 100% towards the end of his run in Dallas.
Will Bryant be motivated by his release from the Cowboys? It stands to reason that he will, but one can’t help but wonder how Bryant would react to a sharp decrease in targets. Bryant would be in line for plenty of looks if Josh Gordon misses time, but the Browns are hopeful that the troubled star will be ready to go in Week 1. It’s not hard to imagine a scenario in which Bryant is relegated to being the third wide receiver behind Landry and Gordon, and there’s also a group of talented young receivers to consider, including rookie Antonio Callaway.
With reservations and interest on both sides, we want to know what you think. Should the Browns sign Bryant? Click below to cast your vote.
Washington’s backfield corps absorbed a major blow Friday when news of Derrius Guice‘s ACL tear surfaced. The second-round pick had impressed during camp and was set to be a key part of the Redskins’ 2018 backfield.
Now, the Redskins are vulnerable here. Chris Thompson admitted he’s not fully recovered from the broken leg he suffered last season, leaving Rob Kelley and Samaje Perine as the team’s top two healthy running backs. Under the circumstances, it would seemingly behoove the Redskins to examine free agent options. Should they?
Washington holds $13MM-plus in cap space, so funding won’t be an issue here given the timing of this injury and the host of proven backs on the market. Of the players available, Orleans Darkwa has generated the most interest this offseason. The Giants’ 2017 rushing leader met with the Patriots in April, before undergoing surgery, and since recovering has met with the Bills, Jets and Colts. Each team passed, but Darkwa has just 276 carries on his NFL odometer. And he averaged 4.4 yards per tote despite running behind an injury-ravaged Giants offensive front.
Alfred Morris led the Redskins in rushing for four straight seasons, and he averaged 4.8 yards per handoff last season as the Cowboys’ primary starter during Ezekiel Elliott‘s suspension. The former sixth-round Washington find is 29 and hasn’t generated much interest since his Cowboys contract expired, although he did visit the Jets recently.
Eddie Lacy‘s also fairly young, at 28, but he’s coming off a brutal Seahawks season. After providing per-carry averages north of 4.0 in each of his four Packers seasons, Lacy averaged just 2.6 yards per run for the Seahawks. Branden Oliver has not been as successful on a per-rush basis, holding a career average of 3.4, but he totaled 853 yards from scrimmage as a seven-game starter as a rookie in 2014. Oliver also drew interest from the Bills this summer.
What about the market’s old guard? Adrian Peterson is obviously the first name that comes to mind, and the future Hall of Famer maintains he would like to play a 12th season. Peterson said he’s now healthy and has recovered from the neck injury that ended his 2017 season. While the three-time rushing champion’s best days are behind him, he amassed two 130-plus-yard games with the Cardinals, doing so despite being a midseason acquisition.
Jamaal Charles, 31, made it through last season healthy after extensive knee trouble plagued him in 2015 and 2016, but the Broncos took him out of their rotation. Nevertheless, the two-time All-Pro led Denver backs by averaging 4.3 yards per carry (albeit on just 69 handoffs). DeMarco Murray retired, but he made it clear shortly before that announcement he was interested in playing this season. Could this situation lure the 2014 offensive player of the year out of retirement?
However, the Redskins also have former Broncos backup Kapri Bibbs and third-year UDFA Byron Marshall. Should they bypass the market and go with a cast fronted by Kelley and Perine?
Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this situation in the comments section!
In 2017, four first-place teams from the previous season did not earn postseason berths. Those clubs — the Texans, Cowboys, Packers, and Seahawks — all missed the playoffs for different reasons. Injuries, poor luck, off-field issues, and plain old regression to the mean all contributed in certain instances, and 2018 doesn’t figure to be any different for the 2017 first-place teams.
We’ve already asked PFR readers which 2017 last place team is likeliest to make the postseason in 2018 (the 49ers were the top choice, with the Texans following closely behind). Today, we’ll flip that question: which 2017 first place club is going to miss the playoffs during the upcoming campaign?
Let’s take an overview of the teams:
With Bill Belichick and Tom Brady in tow, the Patriots have won at least 12 games for eight consecutive seasons, and earned playoff berths in 14 of the past 15 years. Despite some roster turnover, that streak doesn’t figure to end in 2018. Not only is the AFC weak overall, but the AFC East in particular isn’t going to offer much competition for New England. New faces such as running back Sony Michel, offensive tackles Isaiah Wynn and Trent Brown, defensive lineman Danny Shelton and Adrian Clayborn, and cornerback Jason McCourty should help keep the Patriots’ postseason streak alive.
The Steelers are rolling it back, as the club won’t have many changes on either offense or defense. The only new factor on the offensive side of the ball figures to be rookie wideout James Washington, who will replace Martavis Bryant as Pittsburgh’s deep threat. On defense, linebacker Jon Bostic takes over for the injured Ryan Shazier, while Morgan Burnett and Terrell Edmunds will form an all-new safety tandem. Competition from within the AFC North might be improved, especially if the Browns don’t play like a winless team again in 2018.
Over the course of the 2017 season, the Jaguars posted the second-highest DVOA variance of any NFL club, meaning their performance wasn’t consistent from week-to-week. Now that they’ve brought back quarterback Blake Bortles, that doesn’t figure to change. In a passing league, Jacksonville will commit to winning via the run game and defensive dominance, and those two areas of the game aren’t nearly as correlated to win as passing offense.
For what it’s worth, the Chiefs finished with the worst DVOA of any first-place team in 2017, and DVOA — Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric — is better at predicting future records than a team’s actual win-loss record. Kansas City is now deploying a new quarterback in 2017 first-round pick Patrick Mahomes, and as Warren Sharp detailed on Thursday, the Chiefs and Mahomes will need to limit their turnovers in order to have success in 2018. Everyone’s favorite sleeper — the Chargers — also reside in the AFC West, while Denver and Oakland also have legitimate postseason hopes.
Unlike a postmortem, which helps explain why things happened after the fact, a premortem examines potential crises before they actually occur. Let’s take a premortem approach to a hypothetically-flawed 2018 Eagles roster: Carson Wentz doesn’t recover quickly from his ACL tear and his replacement, Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles, looks more like the Rams version of himself. Philadelphia’s defensive line ages quickly and can’t match its 2017 dominance, and the Eagles’ defensive back depth chart — which is relying on young players like Sidney Jones and Rasul Douglas — can’t hold up. And head coach Doug Pederson‘s aggressiveness, which led him to go for it on fourth downs a league-leading 29 times in 2017, backfires.
Two words: Aaron Rodgers. Sure, the Vikings were among the most complete teams in the league last season, and have since added both Kirk Cousins and Sheldon Richardson to an already-stacked roster. But the return of Rodgers from injury surely strikes fear in the hearts of Minnesota fans, and we haven’t even mentioned the improvements made by the NFC North’s other two clubs, the Bears and Lions.
The Saints undoubtedly have a lot going for them in 2018: a future Hall of Famer in quarterback Drew Brees, dynamic rushing and receiving weapons, and an up-and-coming defense that will add veterans Kurt Coleman and Demario Davis in addition to rookie defensive end Marcus Davenport. The real problem for New Orleans is the strength of the NFC South. Both the Falcons and Panthers made the playoffs in 2017 and figure to be in contention again, so there’s always a chance the Saints slip out of the postseason picture due to their intra-division competition.
For all the offseason hype regarding the Rams, there are still quite a few questions about the club’s roster construction? Will LA’s offensive line — fronted by aging veterans Andrew Whitworth and John Sullivan — hold up? How long will All-World defender Aaron Donald continue his holdout? Can Brandin Cooks improve upon Sammy Watkins‘ performance as the Rams’ X receiver? And who exactly will be rushing the passer from outside linebacker in Wade Phillips‘ 3-4 scheme?
So, what do you think? Which 2017 first place team is likeliest to miss the playoffs in 2018? Vote below!
The overwhelming majority of this year’s NFL draft picks have signed their rookies deals. As training camp gets started, only the following seven players are without contracts:
For Mayfield, Darnold, Ward, Allen, and Smith, the holdup is reportedly tied to offset language. Players with offset language who are cut before the end of their rookie contract have the remaining guaranteed money reduced by whatever they earns elsewhere. Without offset language, players get to double dip. Top 10 picks expect to complete their rookie contracts, but it’s an important issue for agents nonetheless. There’s no sign of real acrimony between any of the Top 10 picks and their respective teams, though Smith has been staying away from the Bears.
In Edmunds’ case, it’s likely that his agent is haggling over guarantees in the fourth year of his rookie contract. First-rounders selected near the end of the first round often don’t get the entirety of their fourth season base salary guaranteed, but that’s an area where agents can press for a bit extra in talks. Seahawks rookie running back Rashaad Penny took less in fourth-year guarantees than last year’s No. 27 overall pick, talks dragged for several other players near the back end of the round. Others, such as Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley and Jaguars defensive tackle Taven Bryan have signed, but the Virginia Tech product is still in limbo.
Pettis is believed to be in line for a significant role this season, so it would behoove the Niners to get a deal done sooner rather than later.