Poll: Most Important Game Of Week 8?
We’re nearly at the halfway mark of the 2018 season, and Week 8 offers a number of intriguing matchups that could impact the playoff race. With so much on the line, which game is the most important?
For some context, we’ll use Brian Burke of ESPN’s Playoff Probability Leverage, which Burke tweets out weekly. In short, playoff probability leverage indicates the change in chance of making the playoffs based on the results of the selected game. For example, the Rams and Chiefs are so assured of earning a postseason appearance that this week’s contests have limited meaning for them (less than 5% playoff leverage). The Jets, Browns, Bills, Raiders, Giants, Cardinals, and 49ers will also face low playoff leverages because they have virtually no chance of making the postseason.
But for other clubs, Week 8 could mean everything. And by combining the playoff probability leverages of the two teams involved in a selected game, we can determine which contests will most determine the postseason entrants:
- Seattle Seahawks (27%) at Detroit Lions (15%) = 42%
- Miami Dolphins (18%) at Houston Texans (20%) = 38%
- Baltimore Ravens (16%) at Carolina Panthers (21%) = 37%
- New Orleans Saints (14%) at Minnesota Vikings (22%) = 36%
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12%) at Cincinnati Bengals (18%) = 30%
- Philadelphia Eagles (17%) at Jacksonville Jaguars (11%) = 28%
Other Week 10 contests aren’t included here for various reasons. The Steelers have high postseason probability leverage (24%) against the Browns, but the contest is essentially meaningless on Cleveland’s end, as the Browns have little chance of earning a playoff berth. The Rams/Packers game, meanwhile, figures to be an exciting contest, but nearly all the leverage is with Green Bay (24%).
It’s also important to note that not all playoff probability leverages are created equally. For example, even if the Ravens — who face a 16% PPL — lose to the Panthers on Sunday, they’ll still have a greater than 65% chance of making the postseason. On the other hand, the Dolphins, while facing a similar PPL to the Ravens (18%), will have roughly a one-in-ten chance of earning a postseason berth if they fall to the Texans. If Miami wins, that number rises to about 30%.
So, what do you think? Are the numbers right — is Seahawks/Lions the most critical game of the weekend? Or does a contest farther down the playoff probability leverage spectrum, such as Saints/Vikings mean more? Vote below, and add your thoughts in the comments section!
Poll: Who Will Giants Trade Next?
Sitting at 1-6 for a second straight season, the Giants unloaded two members of their starting defense — Eli Apple and Damon Harrison — and collected three draft choices. Are more moves on the way?
Nearly a week remains until the trade deadline. Dave Gettleman determined the Giants had a chance at a much better season than they did in Jerry Reese‘s final campaign and, instead of taking Eli Manning‘s successor at No. 2 overall, the new GM attempted to build for one last run around the 15th-year starter. With that having backfired, it will be tough for the Giants to win many more games due to the team having stripped away two key pieces.
But will they continue to make moves and weaken this year’s team? It appears they will. Word out of the Big Apple is the Giants are open to dealing anyone on their defense for the right price.
Veterans like Manning and Janoris Jenkins don’t look to factor into the next era of Giants football, and other prominent veterans may not, either. Trade buzz has surrounded Jenkins this week. He’s playing on a reworked deal that pushed some money onto future cap figures (both of his 2019 and ’20 cap hits are now $14.75MM) but is a proven cover man signed for 2 1/2 more seasons.
Gettleman brought in Alec Ogletree (a captain in his first season with the team) after Reese neglected the off-ball linebacker positions for years. He’s only 27 and could be a defensive centerpiece for future Giants teams. But he would draw interest, though maybe not too much due to a $10.5MM-per-year contract. Olivier Vernon missed this season’s first five games due to a hamstring injury. This and his $17MM-AAV contract may not put New York in position to recoup much in return. But the Giants did trade Jason Pierre-Paul, and Vernon, too, was brought in to play in a 4-3 defense.
What about Landon Collins? One of Reese’s best draft picks is in a contract year and could be a franchise tag candidate and could also be re-signed to anchor future Giants secondaries. Though, no notable extension talks are known to have taken place. Or, this fire sale may continue with homegrown young talent. That would naturally shift the conversation to Odell Beckham Jr.
Beckham is signed through the 2023 season on a wideout-record five-year, $90MM extension. He has brought more drama since a lower-maintenance offseason, prompting co-owner John Mara to express disappointment at the soon-to-be 26-year-old receiver’s recent comments, but remains an elite target in his prime. The Giants were asking for two first-round picks for Beckham when he was attached to his fifth-year option. What would they take now that the three-time Pro Bowler’s signed to a top-market contract?
A no-trade clause is built into the extension Manning signed in 2015. He said last year his intent remained to finish his career with the Giants and this week said he’s not thinking about a trade. There wouldn’t be many suitors, given Manning’s contract and performance level thus far this season, and the Tom Coughlin-led Jaguars are not believed to be interested.
Recent Reese draftees like Dalvin Tomlinson and Sterling Shepard have produced as multiyear starters and profile as pieces the Giants will work with going forward, but if the new regime moved them, they’d bring back some more draft capital for choices the current Giants regime can make.
So, who will be the next Giant dealt? Or has the franchise already made its moves? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.
PFR Originals: 10/14/18 – 10/21/18
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- The Browns have handed over the reins to rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield, leading to speculation that backup signal-caller Tyrod Taylor could be traded. Cleveland head coach Hue Jackson hasn’t expressed any open interest in dealing Taylor, but Taylor himself has admitted he’s frustrated by his new role as the Browns’ No. 2. Zach Links asked PFR readers if Cleveland should move Taylor, and nearly 3/4 of respondents believe it should.
- I examined the fascinating 2019 pass rushing class, which contains stars such as DeMarcus Lawrence, Jadeveon Clowney, and Frank Clark, but also wild card options such as Shane Ray, Za’Darius Smith, and Lorenzo Alexander. I attempted to placed each edge defender within a tier, and asked PFR readers to project the top free agent contract within each tier.
- Prior to Week 7’s action, Sam Robinson asked PFR readers who will win the confusing AFC South. That poll was posted on Saturday, and a plurality of readers believed the Jaguars were the favorites to take the division. Of course, that percentage would likely be different in the poll was taken today following Jacksonville’s defeat to Houston. The Texans now lead the division after reeling off four straight victories, while the Titans, Jaguars, and Colts are next in order.
- In the latest entry in our This Date in Transactions History, Zach looked at the 2014 reinstatement of then-Dolphins defensive end Dion Jordan, who had already dealt with multiple suspensions. Jordan, the third overall pick in the 2013 draft, finished out the season with Miami, but never played for the Dolphins again after more failed drug tests. Jordan has since played for the Seahawks since 2017.
- Zach also explained the concept of vested veteran guarantees and termination pay, which will affect any player that is released with at least four credited seasons under his belt.
Poll: Who Will Win AFC South?
Although the AFC South has seen repeat champions this decade, the division’s post-Peyton Manning years have not produced a similar perpetual frontrunner. This season’s unfolding on a familiar course.
Going into Week 7, three AFC South teams — the Jaguars, Titans and Texans — are 3-3. The Colts probably have the division’s best quarterback, but they’re 1-5 and on a rebuilding track. This could be shaping up to be a complicated race as we enter the midseason stretch.
Jacksonville came into the season as the division’s favorite, but the past two games — when the Chiefs and Cowboys combined to outscore the Jaguars 70-21 — leave this division more in doubt than it looked entering October. With Blake Bortles‘ inconsistency continuing into his fifth season, the Jags continue to depend on their defense. But that unit’s not quite on the unassailable perch on which it hovered last season — when a group housing mostly the same personnel led the league in DVOA.
That metric still has this Jaguar defense sitting fifth, but will a merely good defense be enough to lift a Bortles-led offense that doesn’t have much in the way of weaponry? (Though, a Leonard Fournette–Carlos Hyde backfield may look formidable if Fournette can shake off his hamstring injury.) The Jags already lost at home to the Titans and now has the Texans coming to town in what will be a pivotal spot for both teams.
When I examined this division’s similar outlook around the midway point last season, Deshaun Watson was days away from the ACL tear that sank the Texans. He’s off his stratospheric pace from last year, which was to be expected, but has absorbed by far the most sacks (25) and hits (65) any quarterback’s sustained this season. Houston did not outfit its franchise centerpiece with a strong offensive line, and Watson doesn’t have much in the way of a running game, either.
The Texans will need to improve in these areas to be a legitimate AFC contender, but they have won three straight and again have the services of a healthy J.J. Watt, who is putting together a defensive player of the year case and leading a top-10 DVOA unit.
Tennessee’s probably trudging into Week 7 on the lowest note of this division’s contenders, having completed a historically futile effort in Baltimore. Marcus Mariota took 11 sacks, tied for the second-most in NFL history, despite his first-string line being fully available. The fourth-year quarterback has not built on the strong performance he delivered to help the Titans to an overtime win over the Eagles. He’s thrown two touchdown passes this season, is averaging only 158.3 passing yards per game and is 23rd in Total QBR.
The Titans have struggled to replace Delanie Walker‘s reliable presence, and their Dion Lewis–Derrick Henry tandem has sputtered (neither averages more than 3.3 yards per carry) thus far, putting Mariota in a tough spot Sunday in London and running the risk of the Titans falling below .500 after a 3-1 start.
Andrew Luck‘s return should be viewed as the top positive takeaway for the Colts, whose roster didn’t indicate they were especially interested in 2018 contention. Can they rebound and mount something of a challenge in a division without a current winning record, or are they stampeding toward another high draft choice?
It’s obviously still early in the season, but is one of these teams about to separate from the competition and become the kind of contender that can challenge the Patriots or Chiefs? The Jags already beat the Pats, but the latter has obviously proven far more as a perpetual AFC contender and will be treated as such despite the Week 2 result.
So, who has the best chance of putting together a run in the South? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your views in the comments section.
This Date In NFL Transactions History: Dion Jordan Reinstated By NFL
Four years ago today, the NFL reinstated defensive end Dion Jordan from the suspension list. At the time, the Dolphins were expecting the former first-rounder to contribute for the foreseeable future. Little did they know, Jordan would be preparing for his final 10 games in a Dolphins uniform.
The third-overall pick of the 2013 draft had a solid rookie campaign in Miami, finishing the year with 26 tackles, two sacks, and two passes defended. However, prior to his sophomore season, Jordan was slapped with a four-game suspension after violating the league’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs. Several months later, the defensive end was handed another suspension, all leading to him being reinstated four years ago today.
Jordan proceeded to play in the Dolphins final 10 games that year, compiling 20 tackles and a single sack. Unfortunately, things quickly got worse for the Oregon product. Prior to the 2015 season, the NFL found that the defensive end had diluted his test samples. While he didn’t fail a drug test, the diluted sample served as a “third strike,” and Jordan was suspended for the entirety of the 2015 campaign. He was reinstated by the NFL prior to the 2016 season, but he was forced onto the NFI list after recovering from an undisclosed knee surgery. Jordan didn’t play in a single game that season, and he was released by Miami during the 2017 offseason.
It seems like there may be some optimism for Jordan this year. He caught on with the Seahawks in 2017, compiling 18 tackles, four sacks, and one forced fumble in five games. He re-signed this past offseason, but he’s compiled only a pair of tackles through four contests.
When he was reinstated by the NFL in 2014, no one could have envisioned him playing a rotational role elsewhere only four years later. While it certainly hasn’t gone as planned for the 28-year-old, there seems to be some light at the end of the tunnel.
Choose Your 2019 Free Agent Pass Rusher
The 2019 free agent edge rushing class should thank Khalil Mack — by not caving in Oakland and eventually garnering a $23.5MM/year contract from the Bears, Mack reset the market for pass rushers. As Joel Corry of CBSSports.com recently noted, $20MM per season for star edge defenders is now the “new norm.” 2019 free agency will bring an excellent crop of available defensive ends/outside linebackers, and while the list of players on the open market will certainly change by next spring thanks to extensions and franchise tags, there should be plenty of talent to go around. If your team needs someone to get after the quarterback, 2019 is the time to attack.
Let’s take a look at the market as a whole, which I’ve sorted into a few different tiers:
Open your checkbook
- Frank Clark (Seahawks)
- Jadeveon Clowney (Texans)
- Trey Flowers (Patriots)
- Dee Ford (Chiefs)
- DeMarcus Lawrence (Cowboys)
Each of these players will be a legitimate candidate for the franchise tag in 2019, although the salary amounts would vary. Clark and Flowers would be tendered as defensive ends, which should net them one-year salaries of roughly $17.5MM. Clowney and Ford, however, would likely be tagged as linebackers thanks to the NFL’s archaic franchise system, which differentiates between defensive ends and outside ‘backers. The linebacker franchise tender is expected to be worth approximately $16.325MM, per Corry. Lawrence, meanwhile, would be on his second consecutive franchise tag, meaning his salary would increase by 20% to $20.572MM. The Cowboys star has indicated he won’t play under another tag, but unless he takes the Le’Veon Bell route, he won’t have much of a choice.
Ford, particularly, is incredibly intriguing: while he’s the oldest member of the group at age-27, he’s come out of nowhere to post the most productive campaign of his career. Per Evan McPhillips of Pro Football Focus, Ford currently ranks first in both total pressures and quarterback hits. Will a pass-rush needy club overlook Ford’s spotty track record in the hope that he’s a long-term answer on the edge? (Link for app users.)
Old, reliable
- Lorenzo Alexander (Bills)
- Brandon Graham (Eagles)
- Derrick Morgan (Titans)
- Brian Orakpo (Titans)
- Cameron Wake (Dolphins)
Graham and Wake should almost get their own category, as they’re (historically) far better than the other three players listed here. Graham has steadily improved throughout his career and currently grades as Pro Football Focus‘ No. 3 edge rusher, but he’ll be 31 years old when next season gets underway. Last time he was a free agent (entering his age-26 campaign), Graham only received a four-year deal with an annual value of $6.5MM. He’ll get more this time around thanks to his production and the rising salary cap, but he may not be able to break the bank. PFR’s Zach Links examined Graham’s case for a contract extension earlier this year.
Wake, too, presents an age concern, as he’s already 36 years old. That hasn’t stopped him from topping double-digit sacks in three of the past four seasons, however, and he tied for sixth in sacks during that time. Wake has been pretty healthy during his career save for an Achilles injury in 2015, but he’s currently sidelined after surgery for a meniscus trim. He’s close to returning to game action, per Ian Rapoport of NFL.com, and which point Wake will only further his free agent case. (Link for app users.)
Injured at the wrong time
- Ezekiel Ansah (Lions)
Injury question marks have dogged Ansah in the past, but he’s already a lock to miss the most games of his career this season, as he hasn’t played since the Lions’ opener while dealing with a shoulder issue. Streaky is the perfect word to define Ansah, especially given that he’s capable of double-digit sack totals in any given year (14.5 in 2015, 12 in 2017) but also posts down seasons (just two sacks in 2016). Age is also working against Ziggy: he entered the league as an older prospect (24) in 2013, and he’ll now be hitting free agency in advance of his age-30 season. A one-year pact, for far less than the $17.143MM franchise tender amount he’s making this season, appears likely.
Something left in the tank?
- Clay Matthews (Packers)
- Julius Peppers (Panthers)
- Terrell Suggs (Ravens)
Will all three of these players be in the NFL in 2019? Matthews certainly will be, but it may not be with the Packers, as at least one recent report indicated the Packers would not seek to re-sign Matthews if the season ended today. Suggs, meanwhile, also appears primed to return next season. In May, Suggs said he plans to spend additional seasons in a Ravens uniform, and he made the Pro Bowl as recently as 2017. Peppers is the true question mark, as he’s already 38 years old and underwent shoulder surgery over the offseason. If Peppers does come back in 2019, it’s hard to imagine him playing anywhere other than Carolina. (Link for app users.)
Take a chance on me
- Shaquil Barrett (Broncos)
- Dante Fowler Jr. (Jaguars)
- Matt Longacre (Rams)
- Aaron Lynch (Bears)
- Shane Ray (Broncos)
- Preston Smith (Redskins)
- Za’Darius Smith (Ravens)
There are a number of intriguing options in this tier, but I want to focus on the two Smiths. Za’Darius Smith had a coming out party on Sunday against the Titans, posting five tackles, three sacks, and a forced fumble in Baltimore’s domination of Tennessee, and was subsequently named the AFC’s defensive player of the week. He’s also tied for eighth in the NFL with 10 quarterback hits, and he’s only played 258 defensive snaps. As Suggs inches close to retirement, Smith has a chance to become the next great Ravens pass rusher. But as Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic notes, Baltimore has allowed other defenders — Paul Kruger, Pernell McPhee — to leave via free agency in the past, so there’s no guarantee Smith will be back in Baltimore.
Preston Smith is interesting simply because of his reliability. He’s started 37 consecutive games since becoming a full-time player in 2016, he’s played more snaps than anyone in this section aside from Za’Darius Smith. Given that other high-upside players such as Fowler and Lynch have dealt with off-field issues, while Fowler and Ray have been hampered by injuries, Smith’s day-in, day-out approach could entice a team to overpay. (Link for app users.)
The outlier
- Margus Hunt (Colts)
We won’t blame you if you’re not even sure who Hunt is. The 53rd overall selection in the 2013 draft, Hunt managed only 1.5 sacks over four disappointing seasons with the Bengals before joining the Colts in 2017. Last year was much of the same for the Estonia native, but this year, at the age of 31, Hunt has seemingly figured something out. He’s already posted four sacks on the season, and he’s also tied with the Vikings’ Danielle Hunter for most tackles for loss (9). As Justis Mosqueda of Optimum Scouting details below, Hunt is an all-new player:
As everyone expected, 31-year-old Margus Hunt has developed into a world-wrecker this year pic.twitter.com/3OCpFJgzkt
— Justis Mosqueda (@JuMosq) October 16, 2018
If he continues this production for the rest of the season, what kind of contract is Hunt looking at? I’m dubious that most clubs would be willing to give a player with little-to-no track record, who’s entering his age-32 campaign, a multi-year deal. With more than half of the 2018 season left to go, Hunt could potentially fall back to his prior level of performance, but if he doesn’t, it’s possible he could command double-digits next spring.
Poll: Should The Browns Try To Trade Tyrod Taylor?
On Thursday, Browns head coach Hue Jackson told reporters there have been no discussions about trading quarterback Tyrod Taylor before the Oct. 30 deadline. When pressed further, Jackson shrugged off the notion that Taylor would not finish the year in Cleveland. 
“I do [expect him to be with the Browns all season], until someone tells me something differently,” Jackson said. “He is our backup quarterback.”
For his part, Taylor admits that he’s frustrated with his No. 2 QB role, but he refuses to complain to management or demand a trade. It’s not hard to read between the lines and see that Taylor would prefer to be a starter elsewhere rather than Baker Mayfield‘s clipboard holder in Cleveland.
Taylor has just one year to go on his deal, which would make him a logical rental for another club. The Browns would also save a bundle by moving him. Taylor has already collected on his $6MM roster bonus, but a trade would allow them to escape the prorated portion of his $10MM base salary.
The trouble is, there may not be a robust market for Taylor’s services. The Dolphins will be without Ryan Tannehill for an unknown period of time, but they have every reason to stick with Brock Osweiler after last week’s OT victory over the Bears. The Bills, in theory, could use a QB while Josh Allen heals up from a UCL injury, but it’s hard to picture that reunion going down.
If the rest of the league would utilize Taylor as a strong backup quarterback rather than a starter, it’s hard to see the Browns getting much of a return. The Jets got a third-round pick for Teddy Bridgewater in August, but Bridgewater had a first-round pedigree and a much cheaper contract. Moving Taylor might not yield much in the way of draft compensation, and it would mean losing out on one of the more talented backups in the NFL.
With all of that in mind, do you think the Browns should trade Taylor before the deadline? Click below to cast your vote and back up your opinion in the comments. (Link for app users.)
Vested Veteran Salary Guarantees
Tons of veteran players were cut before the start of the season, and while different clubs had different reasons for shuffling their rosters, the looming vested veteran guarantee may have played a part in many of those moves. Vested veterans – players with at least four years of NFL experience – had their 2018 base salary guaranteed for the year by being on an NFL team’s roster for the first game of the season.
That means that if a team decided after Week 1 to part ways with a veteran player with a 2018 base salary of $1MM, the team would still be on the hook for that full $1MM, which would count against the cap. A veteran who has received this form of termination pay in the past wouldn’t be eligible to receive it again, but otherwise the player can put in a claim for his full salary and receive it. Veterans not a Week 1 roster don’t benefit from that provision, however.
If a player is signed during the season, following a team’s first game, and is later released, he’s only entitled to 25% of his full-season salary. For instance, let’s say a team signed a player in Week 2 for a full-year salary of $1.02MM. First, that salary would be prorated for 16 weeks, meaning it’d be worth $960K. If a player is cut shortly after signing, he’d receive 25% of that amount, or $240K. If the player is released within four weeks of signing, he’d only count for $240K against his team’s cap, rather than the amount of his full salary.
Ultimately, the Labor Day weekend numbers crunch is about much more than talent-based decisions. Teams are mindful of expenses and potential dead money hits, particularly when they’re tight against the cap. The smaller vested veteran guarantees may seem like a drop in the bucket when compared to a $177.2MM cap, but every dollar counts for clubs with less than $2MM in breathing room such as the Vikings, Patriots, and Rams.
PFR Originals: 10/7/18 – 10/14/18
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- With nearly a third of the 2018 regular season in the books, I asked PFR readers which embattled team will be picking first overall in the 2019 draft. Using Football Outsiders’ playoff/draft orders odds, I listed the Cardinals, 49ers, Bills, Raiders, Giants, and Falcons as six clubs that could conceivably be on the clock when the season ends. More than a quarter of respondents believe the Giants will end up with the No. 1 pick, while the Cardinals came in second.
- The Cardinals are performing like one of the NFL’s worst teams through five weeks, leading to speculation that Arizona could trade a number of veteran players, including running back David Johnson, linebackers Haason Reddick and Deone Bucannon, and cornerback Patrick Peterson. While Cardinals general manager Steve Keim has downplayed those rumors, it’s still fair to look at whether such deals would make sense. With that in mind, Andrew Ortenberg asked PFR readers if the Cardinals should trade Johnson.
- Back in July, Zach Links asked readers which NFL head coach would the the first to be fired in 2018, and the Buccaneers’ Dirk Koetter took the cake at that time. Koetter may have bought himself some with given Tampa Bay’s hot start, but other coaches are surely in danger of losing their jobs. When Zach once again queried PFR readers on the topic this week, the Broncos’ Vance Joseph and the Cowboys’ Jason Garrett took the top two slots.
Poll: Who Will Be The First Coach To Get Fired?
The NFL is not a patient league, and there are several head coaches who could be in jeopardy of losing their jobs if they do not turn things around quickly.
One could argue that Vance Joseph could be on the hottest seat of all after the Broncos lost to the Jets 34-16 last weekend. The season is far from over and the Broncos are far from done at 2-3, but Joseph might not have much time to turn things around after he was already given a reprieve this offseason. CEO Joe Ellis is saying all of the right things in support of Joseph, but the Broncos have some tough games ahead including Sunday against the Rams and Oct. 28 against the red-hot Chiefs. 
However, you may be surprised to learn that online oddsmakers do not view Joseph’s seat as the hottest. That dubious distinction goes to Cowboys coach Jason Garrett, whose decision to punt on 4th-and-1 against the Texans wound up costing Dallas the game. The Cowboys are now 2-3 – putting them above only the lowly Giants in the NFC East – and it’s fair to wonder how much patient owner Jerry Jones will be this year. Jones recently endorsed Garrett by saying that he is the “real deal,” but another questionable loss or two could change his opinion.
When we gauged PFR readers on this topic in July, Bucs coach Dirk Koetter was one of the leading vote-getters. Despite some early-season Fitzmagic working in his favor, the rumblings are starting up again after an ugly blowout loss to the Bears. Questions persist about Jameis Winston’s effectiveness and the Bucs’ defense has allowed a league-high 34.8 points to opponents on average this year, so things will have to change radically in order for Koetter to have some sense of stability.
A few short weeks ago, Texans coach Bill O’Brien was a contender to get the first axe, but he did receive an extension in the offseason and his seat looks a lot cooler after consecutive overtime wins. Hue Jackson is also coming off of an OT win and the Browns are hovering near the .500 mark, so he looking a little bit safer than he was at the start of the season. If you were a betting man considering coaches with longer odds to get canned, you might also look at Adam Gase (Dolphins), Dan Quinn (Falcons), Jay Gruden (Redskins), Ron Rivera (Panthers), Sean McDermott (Bills), and Todd Bowles (Jets).
Click below to make your pick for who will be the first to get a pink slip. Then, you can head to the comment section to back up your choice.