PFR Originals News & Rumors

Update On 2016’s Restricted Free Agents

Friday’s deadline for restricted free agents to sign offer sheets with rival teams came and went without any noteworthy RFA news, which can be attributed – at least in part – to the lack of restricted free agents remaining on the market. Although nearly 40 players eligible for restricted free agency this offseason were tendered by their respective teams, only three of those players remain unsigned.

Now that the deadline for offer sheets has passed, the three unsigned RFAs have little leverage when it comes to securing a long-term contract. At this point, an unsigned RFA could still get a multiyear offer from his own team, but he can’t sign elsewhere unless his current team rescinds his tender. As such, the players who haven’t yet signed their tenders will likely do so in the coming days or weeks.

These are the three RFAs who have yet to sign their tenders:

While Wilhote received a right-of-first refusal tender, worth $1.671MM, Leary and Marshall got second-round tenders, worth $2.553MM. As such, it’s no surprise that they were unable to land offer sheets from a rival team — any team signing Leary or Marshall would have had to surrender a second-round pick to do so.

Most other restricted free agents simply signed their tenders in recent weeks, but four RFAs signed offer sheets, with two of those players ultimately changing teams. Here’s a breakdown of that group:

  • C.J. Anderson, RB: Signed four-year, $18MM offer sheet with Dolphins. Matched by Broncos.
  • Josh Hill, TE: Signed three-year, $7.1MM offer sheet with Bears. Matched by Saints.
  • Chris Hogan, WR: Signed three-year, $12MM offer sheet with Patriots. Bills did not match.
  • Benson Mayowa, DE: Signed three-year, $8.25MM offer sheet with Cowboys. Raiders did not match.

The following players signed their RFA tenders, so they’re off the market and back under contract with their respective teams. These salaries are non-guaranteed, but if they play out the 2016 season on these one-year deals, they’ll be eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2017:

First-round tenders ($3.635MM):

Second-round tenders ($2.553MM):

Original-round/right-of-first-refusal tenders ($1.671MM):

Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post.

2017 Fifth-Year Option Decision Tracker

Teams across the NFL have until May 3 to officially pick up their 2017 options on players who are entering the final year of their rookie contracts. These fifth-year options can only be exercised on first-round picks, and the salaries are determined by where players were drafted and what position they play. Joel Corry of CBSSports.com has passed along the official salary figures for all 2017 fifth-year options, adding his thoughts on where each 2013 first-rounder stands.

If a player has his option exercised, his rookie contract will be extended by one year and he’ll be eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2018, after the conclusion of the 2017 season. If a player’s option is declined, he’ll be eligible to hit the open market a year earlier. Of course, if a 2013 first-rounder is no longer on his rookie contract, there will be no option to exercise or decline. We explained the intricacies of the fifth-year option in a PFR Glossary post, so you can read up on the specific details there.

These 2017 option salaries are guaranteed for injury only up until the first day of the ’17 league year, at which point they become fully guaranteed. As such, some teams may exercise the options now, even if they’re not 100% sure they’ll keep the player, as Washington did last year with Robert Griffin III — there isn’t a ton of risk in picking up the option and maintaining as much roster flexibility as possible. Teams and players can also continue to negotiate long-term contracts from this point on.

With next month’s deadline looming, we’ll use the space below to track all the option decisions from around the league based on various reports and official announcements. This post can be found anytime on the right-hand sidebar in the “PFR Features” section. Here are this season’s fifth-year option decisions so far:

  1. Eric Fisher, T (Chiefs), $11.902MM: Exercised
  2. Luke Joeckel, T (Jaguars), $11.902MM: Declined
  3. Dion Jordan, DE (Dolphins): Not applicable this year due to suspension (contract tolled)
  4. Lane Johnson, T (Eagles): Not applicable due to long-term extension
  5. Ezekiel Ansah, DE (Lions), $12.734MM: Exercised
  6. Barkevious Mingo, OLB (Browns), $11.925MM: Declined
  7. Jonathan Cooper, G (Patriots), $11.902MM: Declined
  8. Tavon Austin, WR (Rams), $12.268MM: Exercised
  9. Dee Milliner, CB (Jets), $11.913MM: Declined
  10. Chance Warmack, G (Titans), $11.902MM: Declined
  11. D.J. Fluker, G (Chargers), $8.821MM: Exercised
  12. D.J. Hayden, CB (Raiders), $8.026MM: Declined
  13. Sheldon Richardson, DE (Jets), $8.069MM: Exercised
  14. Star Lotulelei, DT (Panthers), $6.757MM: Exercised
  15. Kenny Vaccaro, S (Saints), $5.676MM: Exercised
  16. EJ Manuel, QB (Bills), $11.357MM: Declined
  17. Jarvis Jones, OLB (Steelers), $8.369MM: Declined
  18. Eric Reid, S (49ers), $5.676MM: Exercised
  19. Justin Pugh, G (Giants), $8.821MM: Exercised
  20. Kyle Long, G (Bears), $8.821MM: Exercised
  21. Tyler Eifert, TE (Bengals), $4.782MM: Exercised
  22. Desmond Trufant, CB (Falcons), $8.026MM: Exercised
  23. Sharrif Floyd, DT (Vikings), $6.757MM: Exercised
  24. Bjoern Werner, OLB: Not applicable due to release
  25. Xavier Rhodes, CB (Vikings), $8.026MM: Exercised
  26. Datone Jones, OLB (Packers), $8.369MM: Declined
  27. DeAndre Hopkins, WR (Texans), $7.915MM: Exercised
  28. Sylvester Williams, DT (Broncos), $6.757MM: Declined
  29. Cordarrelle Patterson, WR (Vikings), $7.915MM: Declined
  30. Alec Ogletree, LB (Rams), $8.369MM: Exercised
  31. Travis Frederick, C (Cowboys), $8.821MM: Exercised
  32. Matt Elam, S (Ravens), $5.676MM: Declined

Poll: Who Should The Rams Take With The No. 1 Overall Pick?

When the Rams traded a king’s ransom to the Titans to acquire the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft, it was apparent that Los Angeles made the move in order to select one of this year’s top two quarterback prospects, Carson Wentz or Jared Goff. After all, as good as Laremy Tunsil and Jalen Ramsey might be, no team, especially a team that needs a franchise signal-caller, will give up what LA gave up in order to select a tackle or a defensive back.

Since the trade, of course, there have been a number of conflicting reports as to which of the two QBs the Rams prefer. Last night, we learned that Los Angeles would meet with both Wentz and Goff–both of whom have already worked out for the club–in an effort to firm up their final, critical decision. But most writers and pundits are skeptical that the team would forfeit so much draft capital without knowing exactly which player it wants, and it appears that the Rams may just be trying to create a smokescreen in order to generate interest in the first overall pick, or, at the very least, to maximize the buzz around the team as it moves to Los Angeles.

So while the Rams may know full well which player they will take–assuming they do not trade down to the No. 2 overall selection–the rest of us do not. But that doesn’t mean we can’t discuss who the Rams should select to guide them into the next era of the franchise.

With Goff, the Rams would be getting a player who set Pac-12 conference records in 2015 with 4,719 passing yards and a whopping 43 TD passes. He also let California to its first Bowl victory since 2008. Scouts love his ability to make every throw on the field and his mechanics, although there is some concern about the fact that he struggles with his accuracy from time to time and that he is a “rhythm passer” who benefited from an uptempo passing game where he could take all of his snaps from the pistol or shotgun.

The biggest knock on Wentz, of course, is that he played for an FCS program, North Dakota State, and even though the Bison have become the Patriots of the FCS, the competition that Wentz faced was not nearly as daunting as what Goff went up against on a weekly basis. On the other hand, Wentz also has good mechanics and good field vision, and unlike Goff, he played in a pro-style offense. Wentz sometimes struggles with his footwork and with anticipatory throws–i.e., throwing receivers open–and although his intelligence and work ethic are undisputed, it will surely take him a little longer to adjust to the speed of the professional game.

What do you think? Is Goff the right man for the job in LA, or is it Wentz? Is Goff, who has already been exposed to some degree of spotlight at California, more ready to lead Hollywood’s new club, or is small-school wonder Wentz ready to emerge from the shadows? And, even though we all know the Rams will take one of the two, do you think they should shock the football world and draft someone else entirely?

Poll: Who Should The Rams Select With The No. 1 Overall Pick
Jared Goff 49.91% (820 votes)
Carson Wentz 40.66% (668 votes)
Someone else 9.43% (155 votes)
Total Votes: 1,643

PFR Originals: 4/3/16 – 4/10/16

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • With less than three weeks remaining until the draft begins, Rob DiRe published the first edition of PFR’s 2016 Mock Draft. As Rob writes, this mock draft is a little different than the industry consensus, especially at the top of the first round, where the Titans and Browns are projected to select Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack, respectively.
  • Zach Links rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.

PFR Originals: 3/13/16 – 3/20/16

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • Now that the dust has cleared, Luke Adams has taken several overviews of the free agent period and all its implications. Last Monday, Luke looked at where things stood from a 10,000-foot view, including going over the contracts of PFR’s top free agents and taking a peek at the best remaining free agents.
  • Today, with even more free agents having been signed, Luke detailed the best players still on the board, looking at the best available free agents on both offense and defense.
  • Perhaps the most interesting contract signed this offseason has been left tackle Russell Okung‘s deal with the Broncos, which Okung negotiated himself. The pact contains no guaranteed money, and features an option that would trigger the four additional years after 2016. Luke has the full breakdown of the contract, as well as a look at the best- and worst-case scenarios for Okung.
  • We posted our list of 2016 NFL Trades, which will be updated throughout the season until the fall trade deadline.
  • Zach Links rounded up the best of the football blogs in the latest edition of Pigskin Links.

Notable Free Agents Still Available: Defense

We’re about a week and a half into the 2016 league year, and most of the top free agents have signed – or at least agreed to – new contracts. With teams shifting their focus to draft preparation for the next several weeks, the height of this year’s free agent period is now behind us, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t still many players available who will land new deals of their own in the coming weeks and months.

Earlier today, with the help of our top 50 list of free agents, and our complete breakdown of all the free agents still available, we examined some of the top free agents still available on offense. We’ll shift our focus to the other side of the ball now, and break down of some of the most notable players at each defensive position who are still not under contract.

Edge defender:Greg Hardy

There’s arguably no more talented player currently on the free agent market than Greg Hardy, who finds himself in a similar situation to the one he was in a year ago. In 2015, Hardy’s off-field troubles scared most teams away, but the Cowboys ultimately signed him to an incentive-laden deal that minimized the risk for the team.

If Hardy had kept his head down, been on his best behavior, and avoided making headlines in Dallas, teams would likely be more willing to bet on him this time around. Instead, he once again created problems both off the field and on the Cowboys’ sideline, as more details of his domestic violence incident surfaced. Ultimately, with many clubs apparently still unconvinced that Hardy’s talent makes him worth the risk, the standout defensive end may have to settle for another one-year, prove-it deal.

Hardy isn’t the only 4-3 defensive end of interest on the board, but most of the others are part-time rotational players. Jason Jones, Chris Clemons, and Jeremy Mincey are among the more appealing options in the group.

Teams in the market for a 3-4 outside linebacker won’t find much help on the free agent market. The most noteworthy names available are veterans who are in their mid-30s, such as Dwight Freeney, Jason Babin, and Calvin Pace.

Mike Neal has some appeal, and Courtney Upshaw has flashed a little promise during his years in Baltimore, but neither player will be a difference-making pass rusher. The only player who fits that bill is Aldon Smith, and he’ll be serving a suspension until at least November.

Interior defensive line:

Muhammad Wilkerson is technically still a free agent, but his franchise tag means he won’t be signing an offer sheet with another club — if any team were willing to give up the requisite two first-round picks to sign Wilkerson, they’d simply work out a trade with the Jets for a lesser package instead.

Nick FairleyOf the unrestricted free agents, Nick Fairley is probably the top option available. The Saints, Eagles, and Jets have been cited as potential suitors for Fairley, who reportedly made a visit to New Orleans this past week. A part-time contributor, Fairley has picked up just 1.5 sacks in his past two seasons for the Lions and Rams, but he continues to earn solid grades from Pro Football Focus as both a run defender and pass rusher.

While the interior defensive line market probably lacks impact players at the moment, there’s no shortage of depth. If you’re looking for a nose tackle, a player like Terrance Knighton or Sammie Lee Hill may have some appeal. Teams in the market for a 3-4 defensive end could kick the tires on veterans like Stephen Bowen, Chris Canty, Jared Crick, and Mike DeVito.

There are plenty of former Pro Bowlers still available in free agency, including Randy Starks, Kevin Williams, Henry Melton, Jason Hatcher, and Antonio Smith. And we haven’t even mentioned solid veterans like C.J. Mosley, Kyle Love, Cullen Jenkins, Tony McDaniel, Dwan Edwards, Barry Cofield, Nick Hayden, and C.J. Wilson.

One problem for all these veteran free agents? Teams in need of some help on the defensive line may be looking ahead to the draft, where defensive tackle is viewed as perhaps the deepest position class of 2016. Some of these free agents will find new homes before then, but many may have to wait until after the draft, at which point clubs who missed out on targets on draft day may circle back and sign a veteran.

Linebacker:

Teams in search of a short-term stop gap at inside linebacker still have some options. Karlos Dansby, DeMeco Ryans, Curtis Lofton, and Erin Henderson are among the veterans who can still contribute. David Hawthorne, Donald Butler, Kavell Conner, Philip Wheeler, and Joe Mays also have plenty of career starts on their NFL résumés, but aren’t coming off particularly strong seasons, so they’re nothing more than depth options at this point.

Elsewhere, Zach Brown, Craig Robertson, and O’Brien Schofield are among the more intriguing free agent linebackers on the market. All three players are in their 20s and possess some versatility, though they’d probably be best suited as outside linebackers in a 4-3 scheme. Schofield has picked up 15.5 career sacks, while Brown and Robertson have each totaled six career interceptions.

Chad Greenway, Danny Lansanah, Justin Durant, Bruce Carter, and Spencer Paysinger round out the non-rush linebackers of note.

Cornerback:Brandon Boykin

The cornerback market has been somewhat slow to develop this month, with a handful of players we viewed as top-10 free agents at the position still available. Patrick Robinson and Leon Hall are two solid veterans capable of a starting job — both players ranked as top-35 corners in 2015 (out of 111 qualified players), per Pro Football Focus. And both players have been linked to the Cowboys.

Brandon Boykin wasn’t far behind Robinson and Hall, ranking 38th in PFF’s grades, despite not seeing significant playing time in Pittsburgh until late in the season. Boykin has always shown flashes of upside, particularly in his six-interception 2013 campaign, but has never really gotten the opportunity to be a full-time player — he has just seven career starts. He’s still just 25 years old, so it’s a little surprising he hasn’t been snatched up yet.

While there are plenty of other cornerbacks out there who could compete for No. 3 or No. 4 spots on teams’ depth charts, there aren’t really any others you’d feel comfortable penciling in as your No. 2. Antonio Cromartie, Brandon Browner, and Cortland Finnegan all saw extensive playing time in 2015, but their best days are probably behind them, barring surprise bounce-back seasons.

Jerraud Powers, Sterling Moore, and Charles Tillman are other names worth monitoring.

Reggie Nelson (Vertical)Safety:

As is the case at cornerback, the safety position features some players worthy of NFL starting jobs. Reggie Nelson is one — he’s coming off a strong season in Cincinnati, and while his age (33 in September) may have prevented him from landing a big-money deal, I’m surprised Nelson has yet to sign anywhere.

Rashad Johnson was a first-time starter in Arizona for the second consecutive season, and wasn’t a weak link in the Cardinals’ secondary. Husain Abdullah, meanwhile, was part of a stacked group of safeties in Kansas City that included Eric Berry, Ron Parker, and Tyvon Branch, so he wasn’t a starter in 2015, but he has shown in the past that he’s capable of stepping in when needed.

Two of the most talented safeties currently on the free agent market may not end up signing anywhere this offseason, with Walter Thurmond contemplating retirement and Will Hill facing a 10-game suspension. Thurmond made the transition from cornerback in 2015, and had a pretty impressive first year at safety, while Hill looked like one of the league’s top defensive backs during the first half of the season.

Teams in need of a safety may also consider veterans such as Will Allen, Quintin Demps, William Moore, James Ihedigbo, Louis Delmas, and Roman Harper.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Notable Free Agents Still Available: Offense

We’re about a week and a half into the 2016 league year, and most of the top free agents have signed – or at least agreed to – new contracts. With teams shifting their focus to draft preparation for the next several weeks, the height of this year’s free agent period is now behind us, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t still many players available who will land new deals of their own in the coming weeks and months.

With the help of our top 50 list of free agents, and our complete breakdown of all the free agents still available, here’s a breakdown of some of the most notable players at each offensive position who are still not under contract.

Quarterback:Ryan Fitzpatrick (Vertical)

Somewhat surprisingly, Ryan Fitzpatrick remains unsigned, having been unable to find common ground with the Jets or to generate a ton of interest from other teams. Neither the Jets nor other potential suitors, such as the Broncos, are likely to get into a bidding war for Fitzpatrick, who doesn’t want to settle for a below-market deal after seeing how guys like Kirk Cousins, Brock Osweiler, and Sam Bradford did this month. I’d expect the veteran to ultimately re-up with the Jets before offseason workouts get underway.

Elsewhere, Robert Griffin III and Johnny Manziel are among the young, once-promising quarterbacks who have been released recently, but Manziel, at least, likely won’t sign anywhere until he commits to making some changes in his personal life.

Tarvaris Jackson, Michael Vick, and Brandon Weeden are a few of the probable backups still available, while Case Keenum and Matt McGloin are technically still free agents as well, but won’t receive much interest due to the RFA tenders – and draft pick compensation – attached to them.

Running back:

Alfred Morris is the top running back still on the board, and the relative lack of interest in him is perhaps a sign that teams were put off by the drop-off in his 2015 production. He has a visit with the Cowboys lined up, but it doesn’t look like he’ll land the sort of lucrative, multiyear deal that fellow free agent backs like Chris Ivory and Lamar Miller did.

There are several recognizable names out there on the running back market, but many are either on the wrong side of 30 or will turn 30 later this year, so clubs will have to determine how much those players have left in the tank — Joique Bell, LeGarrette Blount, Reggie Bush, Tim Hightower, Fred Jackson, and Pierre Thomas are among the free agents who fit that bill.

One of the younger backs still available is 24-year-old Ronnie Hillman, who is coming off a career year (863 yards, seven touchdowns, 4.2 ypc). The Broncos brought back Hillman’s backfield mate C.J. Anderson on a four-year, $18MM contract, so it’ll be interesting to see whether Denver has room to re-sign Hillman as well.

Arian Foster and Stevan Ridley are two players worth mentioning as well, though their health will be a key consideration for suitors. Foster is coming off a torn Achilles and turns 30 this August, so I imagine teams will be reluctant to add him until he shows he’s close to a full recovery. Ridley, meanwhile, is another year removed from a devastating ACL/MCL tear, so he may have more potential for 2016 than he showed in 2015.

Wide receiver:Rueben Randle

Top options like Marvin Jones, Travis Benjamin, Mohamed Sanu, and Rishard Matthews were snatched up in the early days of free agency, but plenty of intriguing names remain. The most intriguing one is Rueben Randle, who turns 25 this month and has averaged 64 receptions and 868 yards in his last two seasons. While Randle’s youth and talent are appealing, the Giants reportedly questioned his work ethic and his “desire to be great.” One has to imagine those factors are playing a part in the fact that he’s still unsigned, though he reportedly paid a visit to the Rams.

Outside of Randle, the most noteworthy free agent wideouts still in their 20s are players with question marks, such as Hakeem Nicks, Percy Harvin, Brandon LaFell, and Riley Cooper. Nicks and Harvin certainly have plenty of upside, but it has been a while since they’ve had really strong seasons, and it’s looking increasingly unlikely that they’ll ever regain that form.

Currently, the market for receivers is dominated by big-name veterans. Anquan Boldin and James Jones lead the pack as two players coming off strong seasons, who saw their contracts expire rather than having them terminated. Veterans who have been cut in recent weeks include Dwayne Bowe, Marques Colston, Greg Jennings, Andre Johnson, and Roddy White.

Tight end:

The tight end ranks have thinned out considerably in the first week and a half of free agency, but there are still some veteran pass catchers out there for teams in the market for a player who fits that mold. Jared Cook is probably the most appealing option, but guys like Owen Daniels, Vernon Davis, and Scott Chandler should also draw some interest. Cook has met with the Packers, while Davis visited Washington.

If teams are seeking out a blocking option instead, there are several of those worth targeting as well. Clay Harbor and John Phillips, for instance, each made their way into our top 15 list for tight ends when free agency began earlier this month, and have yet to find new NFL homes.

Offensive line:Jake Long

Two offensive tackles from our top 15 are still available, and both players are veterans with troublesome injury histories. I still expect Will Beatty and former first overall pick Jake Long to land deals at some point, but in a market where even younger tackles like Russell Okung and Kelvin Beachum were forced to settle for team-friendly deals due to health concerns, I can’t imagine Beatty or Long finding a huge payday. Nate Chandler, Jason Fox, and Don Barclay are among the other UFA tackles available.

At guard, the pattern is somewhat similar. Jahri Evans, Willie Colon, Chris Chester, Ben Grubbs, Todd Herremans, Kraig Urbik, and Manuel Ramirez are all in their 30s, and for some of them, health issues may keep them on the market for a while yet. However, there are still some intriguing options in that group and elsewhere. Jon Asamoah, Louis Vasquez, and Geoff Schwartz also remain in play.

Finally, the center market wasn’t deep when free agency began, and with Ben Jones having signed quickly, it looks even thinner now. But Stefen Wisniewski should appeal to clubs, having been a steady presence in the middle of the line for the Raiders and Jaguars in recent years. J.D. Walton, Lyle Sendlein, Will Montgomery, and Ryan Wendell are among the other centers with extensive starting experience within the last couple seasons.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Examining Russell Okung’s Self-Negotiated Contract

Russell Okung‘s new five-year deal with the Broncos has been one of the most-discussed free agent contracts during the second week of the 2016 league year, and there are a number of reasons why it has been such a topic of interest.

If Okung plays out the entire contract, it would be worth well over $50MM, making it one of the most valuable overall deals in 2016 free agency, and we rarely see contracts that big signed more than a week into the league year. Additionally, the structure is somewhat unique, since it’s essentially a one-year pact with a four-year option.Russell Okung (vertical)

Ultimately though, the interest in Okung’s deal comes down to two factors:

  1. It features no guaranteed money.
  2. He negotiated it himself.

It’s easy to conclude that those two factors are related, and suggest that Okung’s lack of an agent – and his lack of experience in contract negotiations – resulted in him agreeing to a team-friendly deal. That’s a point that’s hard to refute. Very few free agents who have signed contracts within the last week and a half have inked fully non-guaranteed deals — even minimum-salary players often receive guaranteed $80K signing bonuses.

Although he retained former NFL team cap analyst Jimmy Halsell, Okung was unable to talk to teams during the 52-hour legal tampering period before free agency officially begun. As many agents agreed to deals for their players during those two days, Okung was forced to wait, putting him behind the eight-ball from the start. Throw in the fact that he had never negotiated a contract for himself before, the odds of Okung landing a player-friendly deal weren’t great.

But just how unfavorable is Okung’s new deal? Let’s take a closer look. Based on various reports to date, here’s what the breakdown of the contract should look like:

2016:

  • $1MM workout bonus
  • $2MM base salary
  • $2MM roster bonus if he spends one game on the 53-man roster
  • Up to $3MM in playing-time incentives ($1.5MM for 80% of snaps, $3MM for 90% of snaps)

$1MM option that must be exercised before the first day of the 2017 league year. If exercised:

2017:

  • $2MM base salary (fully guaranteed)
  • $8MM roster bonus (fully guaranteed)
  • Up to $1.5MM in per-game roster bonuses

2018:

  • $9.5MM base salary (fully guaranteed)
  • Up to $1.5MM in per-game roster bonuses

2019:

  • $8.5MM base salary
  • $2MM roster bonus
  • Up to $1.5MM in per-game roster bonuses

2020:

  • $9MM base salary
  • $2MM roster bonus
  • Up to $1.5MM in per-game roster bonuses

This breakdown may not be entirely comprehensive, but it’s a pretty close approximation of what Okung’s deal looks like, and it shows how significantly he’s betting on his health. In January, the longtime Seahawks lineman contacted teams to let them know he was undergoing surgery to repair his dislocated left shoulder, an injury he suffered during Seattle’s divisional-round loss to Carolina. Okung said in his message that he expected to be fully cleared in five months, which would put him on track to participate in training camp.

While Okung may be on track to fully participate in training camp, he likely won’t be healthy in time to do the same for offseason workouts this spring, which makes the $1MM workout bonus in his contract somewhat interesting. Injured players can still collect workout bonuses as long as they report for duty and participate in whatever activities they’re able to, so the only way Okung won’t earn that $1MM is if the Broncos are so discouraged by his recovery process that they cut him before – or during – their offseason workouts. The odds of that happening seem slim, unless Okung suffers a major setback in the next several weeks. If Denver was that concerned about his health, it’s unlikely the team would have signed him at all.

The real test for Okung will come in training camp and the preseason. If the Broncos don’t like what they see at that point, it would make sense for the team to cut its losses and avoid paying the left tackle $4MM in salary and bonus money. That total would become fully guaranteed if he’s on the roster for Week 1.

Being released during preseason roster cutdowns would probably represent the worst-case scenario for Okung on this deal. He’d only collect his $1MM workout bonus, and would be looking for work around the time when most teams already have their rosters set for the season. It’s possible – even likely – that there would be other teams desperate enough for a starting tackle that they’d roll the dice on Okung, despite Denver’s unwillingness to pay him, but he’d probably have to settle for a one-year deal at that point.

If that’s the worst-case scenario for Okung, what does the best-case scenario look like? Well, there’s a possibility that this deal could work out pretty well for him if he fully recovers from shoulder surgery and plays well in 2016.

Let’s say he makes the Broncos’ roster, and stays healthy all season, collecting an extra $3MM in incentives for playing 90% of Denver’s snaps. At that point, he’ll have earned $8MM in 2016, and the Broncos will be faced with a tough decision to make — do they commit to Okung for at least two more seasons, fully guaranteeing him another $20MM or so? If they choose to decline his option, he’ll have the opportunity to hit the market again, and a year removed from his shoulder injury, he could land a much better contract than he did in 2016.

Okung’s new deal certainly isn’t one of the most player-friendly agreements we’ve seen this month, but it’s not necessarily a total disaster. Considering he’s not even healthy at the moment, it’s not a huge surprise that Okung’s contract doesn’t look a little better. After all, Kelvin Beachum, another left tackle coming off a major injury (ACL tear in October), agreed to a similar contract with the Jaguars — it’s reportedly a one-year, $4.5MM deal with a four-year, $40MM option. The full details on Beachum’s pact haven’t been reported, and – unlike Okung’s – it probably includes some guaranteed money, but those guarantees are unlikely to be significant.

As was the case when he decided to hit the open market without an agent, Okung is betting on himself with this contract. In this case, he’s betting on his ability to get healthy and to return to his previous form. Given what we know about the 28-year-old’s injury history – he has never played a full 16-game season – it’s a move that could easily backfire, and won’t give him much of a security blanket if it does. If he has a strong 2016 season though, Okung will be in a position to earn a huge chunk of guaranteed money a year from now, when most of his fellow 2016 free agents will start to see the guarantees on their new contracts dwindling.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2016 NFL Trades

Although the NFL isn’t typically considered a trade-happy league, that reputation has been earned due to a lack of major trade-deadline activity, and doesn’t necessarily tell the whole story. In the NFL’s offseasons, big-name players and early-round draft picks change hands with greater frequency, as trades serve as a key tool for teams looking to upgrade their rosters or accelerate a rebuild.

We’ve already seen plenty of trades consummated since the 2016 league year began on March 9th, and with the draft not too far off, several more deals figure to be completed this spring. We’ll track those moves – and the rest of the year’s trades, right up until the fall deadline – in this space. You can find this page, our 2016 NFL trade tracker, on our right-hand sidebar under the “PFR Features” menu at any time.

Here’s a breakdown of 2016’s trades to date, in reverse chronological order:

After Draft:

November 1

  • Lions acquire CB Johnthan Banks.
  • Buccaneers acquire a conditional 2018 seventh-round pick.

October 31

  • Browns acquire LB Jamie Collins.
  • Patriots acquire a conditional 2017 compensatory third-round pick.

October 25

  • Broncos acquire TE A.J. Derby.
  • Patriots acquire a 2017 fifth-round pick.

October 25

  • Patriots acquire LB Kyle Van Noy and a 2017 seventh-round pick.
  • Lions acquire a 2017 sixth-round pick.

October 18

  • Packers acquire RB Knile Davis.
  • Chiefs acquire a conditional 2018 seventh-round pick.

September 7

  • Patriots acquire CB Eric Rowe.
  • Eagles acquire a conditional 2018 fourth-round pick.
  • Pick becomes third-rounder if Rowe plays 50% of snaps in either 2016 or 2017.

September 3

  • 49ers acquire WR Rod Streater and a conditional 2019 seventh-round pick.
  • Chiefs acquire a conditional 2019 seventh-round pick.

September 3

  • Seahawks acquire S Dewey McDonald.
  • Raiders acquire a conditional 2017 seventh-round pick.

September 3

  • Vikings acquire QB Sam Bradford.
  • Eagles acquire a 2017 first-round pick and a conditional 2018 fourth-round pick.
  • Fourth-round pick becomes third-rounder if Vikings make NFC Championship Game, and becomes second-rounder if Vikings win Super Bowl.

September 2

  • Cardinals acquire CB Marcus Cooper.
  • Chiefs acquire a 2018 seventh-round pick.

August 30

  • Bills acquire LB Lerentee McCray.
  • Packers acquire a conditional 2018 seventh round pick.

August 29

  • Saints acquire LB/DE Chris McCain.
  • Dolphins acquire a conditional 2017 seventh-round pick.

August 29

  • Panthers acquire P Andy Lee and a 2017 seventh-round pick.
  • Browns acquire Kasey Redfern and a 2018 fourth-round pick.

August 28

  • 49ers acquire WR Jeremy Kerley.
  • Lions acquire OL Brandon Thomas.

August 27

  • Chiefs acquire CB Kenneth Acker.
  • 49ers acquire a 2018 seventh-round pick.

August 25

August 16

May 9

  • Lions acquire LB Jon Bostic.
  • Patriots acquire a conditional 2017 seventh-round pick.

 

During Draft:

April 30

  • Browns acquire CB Jamar Taylor and a 2016 seventh-round pick (No. 250; LB Scooby Wright).
  • Dolphins acquire a 2016 seventh-round pick (No. 223; QB Brandon Doughty).

April 30

  • Vikings acquire a 2016 sixth-round pick (No. 188; TE David Morgan).
  • Eagles acquire a 2016 sixth-round pick (No. 196; DB Blake Countess) and a 2016 seventh-round pick (No. 240; DE Alex McCalister).

April 30

  • Dolphins acquire a 2016 sixth-round pick (No. 186; WR Jakeem Grant)
  • Vikings acquire a 2016 sixth-round pick (No. 196) and a 2016 seventh-round pick (No. 227; LB Stephen Weatherly).

April 30

  • Jets acquire a 2016 fifth-round pick (No. 158; T Brandon Shell).
  • Washington acquires a 2017 fourth-round pick.

April 30

  • Titans acquire a 2015 fifth-round pick (No. 157; CB LeShaun Sims) and a 2016 seventh-round pick (No. 253; DB Kalan Reed).
  • Broncos acquire a 2016 sixth-round pick (No. 176; FB Andy Janovich) and a 2017 sixth-round pick.

April 30

  • Seahawks acquire a 2016 fifth-round pick (No. 147; T Caleb Benenoch).
  • Patriots acquire a 2016 seventh-round pick (No. 225; WR Devin Lucien) and a 2017 fourth-round pick.

April 30

  • Patriots acquire a 2016 fifth-round pick (No. 147).
  • Dolphins acquire two sixth-round picks (Nos. 196 and 204; DB Jordan Lucas) and a 2016 seventh-round pick (No. 250).

April 30

  • Saints acquire a 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 120).
  • Washington acquires a 2016 fifth-round pick (No. 152) and a 2017 fifth-round pick.

April 30

April 30

  • Raiders acquire a 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 100; QB Connor Cook).
  • Browns acquire a 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 114; WR Ricardo Louis) and a 2016 fifth-round pick (No. 154; WR Jordan Payton).

April 29

  • Dolphins acquire a 2016 third-round pick (No. 86; WR Leonte Carroo).
  • Vikings acquire a 2016 sixth-round pick (No. 186), a 2017 third-round pick, and a 2017 fourth-round pick.
  • 2017 fourth-rounder acquired by Vikings will be a compensatory pick if Dolphins receive one.

April 29

April 29

  • Saints acquire a 2016 second-round pick (No. 61; S Vonn Bell).
  • Patriots acquire a 2016 third-round pick (No. 78; OL Joe Thuney) and a 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 112; WR Malcolm Mitchell).

April 29

April 29

  • Texans acquire a 2016 second-round pick (No. 50; C Nick Martin).
  • Falcons acquire a 2016 second-round pick (No. 52; LB Deion Jones) and a 2016 sixth-round pick (No. 195; OL Wes Schweitzer).

April 29

  • Seahawks acquire a 2016 second-round pick (No. 49; DT Jarran Reed).
  • Bears acquire a 2016 second-round pick (No. 56; G Cody Whitehair) and a 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 124; DB Deon Bush).

April 29

April 29

  • Bills acquire a 2016 second-round pick (No. 41; LB Reggie Ragland).
  • Bears acquire a 2016 second-round pick (No. 49), a 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 117), and a 2017 fourth-round pick.

April 29

  • Dolphins acquire a 2016 second-round pick (No. 38; CB Xavien Howard).
  • Ravens acquire a 2016 second-round pick (No. 42; DE/OLB Kamalei Correa) and a 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 107; WR Chris Moore).

April 29

  • Jaguars acquire a 2016 second-round pick (No. 36; LB Myles Jack).
  • Ravens acquire a 2016 second-round pick (No. 38) and a 2016 fifth-round pick (No. 146; DE Matt Judon).

April 28

  • 49ers acquire a 2016 first-round pick (No. 28; G Joshua Garnett) and a 2016 seventh-round pick (No. 249; DB Prince Charles Iworah).
  • Chiefs acquire a 2016 second-round pick (No. 37; DT Chris Jones), a 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 105; G Parker Ehinger), and a 2016 sixth-round pick (No. 178; CB D.J. White).

April 28

  • Broncos acquire a 2016 first-round pick (No. 26; QB Paxton Lynch).
  • Seahawks acquire a 2016 first-round pick (No. 31; T Germain Ifedi) and a 2016 third-round pick (No. 94; TE Nick Vannett).

April 28

  • Texans acquire a 2016 first-round pick (No. 21: WR Will Fuller).
  • Washington acquires a 2016 first-round pick (No. 22; WR Josh Doctson) and a 2017 sixth-round pick.

April 28

  • Bears acquire a 2016 first-round pick (No. 9; OLB Leonard Floyd).
  • Buccaneers acquire a 2016 first-round pick (No. 11; CB Vernon Hargreaves) and a 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 106).

April 28

  • Titans acquire a 2016 first-round pick (No. 8; T Jack Conklin) and a 2016 sixth-round pick (No. 176).
  • Browns acquire a 2016 first-round pick (No. 15; WR Corey Coleman), a 2016 third-round pick (No. 76; T Shon Coleman), and a 2017 third-round pick.

 

Pre-Draft:


April 20

  • Eagles acquire a 2016 first-round pick (No. 2; QB Carson Wentz) and a 2017 fourth-round pick.
  • Browns acquire a 2016 first-round pick (No. 8), a 2016 third-round pick (No. 77), a 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 100), a 2017 first-round pick, and a 2018 second-round pick.

April 14

  • Rams acquire a 2016 first-round pick (No. 1; QB Jared Goff), a 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 113), and a 2016 sixth-round pick (No. 177; TE Temarrick Hemingway).
  • Titans acquire a 2016 first-round pick (No. 15), two 2016 second-round picks (Nos. 43 and 45; DL Austin Johnson and RB Derrick Henry), a 2016 third-round pick (No. 76), a 2017 first-round pick, and a 2017 third-round pick.
  • Rams will also acquire a 2017 seventh-round pick if they send their own 2017 third-rounder to the Titans, rather than a third-round comp pick.

April 10

  • Jets acquire T Ryan Clady and a 2016 seventh-round pick (No. 235; P Lachlan Edwards).
  • Broncos acquire a 2016 fifth-round pick (No. 157).

March 17

  • Patriots acquire TE Martellus Bennett and a 2016 sixth-round pick (No. 204).
  • Bears acquire a 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 127; DB Deiondre’ Hall).

March 15

March 11

  • Broncos acquire QB Mark Sanchez.
  • Eagles acquire a conditional 2017 seventh-round pick.

March 9

  • Titans acquire RB DeMarco Murray and a 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 113).
  • Eagles acquire a 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 100).

March 9

Where Things Stand In NFL Free Agency

Things move fast in NFL free agency, so it should come as no surprise that just five days after the new league year began, the majority of 2016’s top free agents have come off the board. Olivier Vernon, Malik Jackson, and Brock Osweiler – the first three players on our list of this year’s top 50 free agents – are among those that have signed new mega-deals already.Brock Osweiler (vertical)

[RELATED: Full list of available free agents by position]

Our top 50 list was intended – at least in part – to predict which players would sign the biggest contracts of the offseason, and while we did pretty well at the top of our list, there were missteps further down. Our rankings appear to have underestimated the apprehension that teams would have for free agents with health questions. That’s why our No. 7 free agent, Jason Pierre-Paul, only managed a one-year deal, while others in our top 20, such as Russell Okung and Kelvin Beachum, remain unsigned.

Here’s a breakdown of the top 10 biggest deals signed so far, in terms of fully guaranteed money (per Over The Cap):

  1. Olivier Vernon, DE (Giants): Five years, $85MM. $40MM fully guaranteed.
  2. Brock Osweiler, QB (Texans): Four years, $72MM. $37MM fully guaranteed.
  3. Malik Jackson, DE (Jaguars): Six years, $85.5MM, $31.5MM fully guaranteed.
  4. Janoris Jenkins, CB (Giants): Five years, $62.5MM. $28.8MM fully guaranteed.
  5. Kelechi Osemele, G/T (Raiders): Five years, $58.5MM. $25.4MM fully guaranteed.
  6. Damon Harrison, DT (Giants): Five years, $46.2MM. $20MM fully guaranteed.
  7. Alex Mack, C (Falcons): Five years, $45MM. $20MM fully guaranteed.
  8. Brandon Brooks, G (Eagles): Five years, $40MM. $17MM fully guaranteed.
  9. Mark Barron, LB (Rams): Five years, $45MM. $15MM fully guaranteed.
  10. (tie) Sean Smith, CB (Raiders): Four years, $38MM. $15MM fully guaranteed.
    (tie) Doug Martin, RB (Buccaneers): Five years, $35.7MM. $15MM fully guaranteed.

The Giants and Raiders dominate that list, combining for five players, and those two teams, plus the Jaguars, have been among the biggest free agent spenders so far.

In addition to their three signings noted above, the Giants also re-signed Pierre-Paul ($8.5MM fully guaranteed). The Raiders complemented their Osemele and Smith signings by adding Bruce Irvin ($14.5MM fully guaranteed). And the Jaguars landed Jackson, plus Tashaun Gipson ($12MM fully guaranteed), Chris Ivory ($10MM fully guaranteed), and Prince Amukamara ($3MM fully guaranteed).

Additional big spenders have included the Eagles (Brooks, Rodney McLeod, Chase Daniel), Texans (Osweiler, Lamar Miller, Jeff Allen), and Falcons (Mack, Mohamed Sanu).

While many of the big-name players have signed, there are still many players in our top 50 without deals. Some of these players, such as Eric Weddle, appear to be simply taking their time to weigh all their options, and could still land fairly lucrative deals. Others may not be generating as much interest as expected. Here’s a breakdown of those players:

As our list of notable remaining free agents shows, the tackle market has been somewhat slow to develop. Okung and Beachum are both coming off injuries, Penn will turn 33 next month, and Smith isn’t a left tackle, so it makes some sense that there hasn’t been a ton of action on them, but I expect that will be one position that gains steam this week.

We should also see more movement at cornerback – which features players like Brandon Boykin, Leon Hall, and Patrick Robinson – and inside linebacker, where Zach Brown and James Laurinaitis are among the veterans available. You can find our complete, up-to-date list of available free agents right here.

This week’s action won’t be quite as fast-paced as last week’s, but things will still be busy, with teams continuing to focus on the second and third waves of free agency. After next week’s owner’s meetings, draft coverage steadily begins to dominate the NFL news cycle, but we’ve still got plenty of free agent signings to track before then, so check PFR frequently for the latest.