PFR Originals News & Rumors

Poll: Will The Giants Reach .500 In 2019?

After the Giants shocked the world with their No. 6 overall selection, could they be poised to shock everyone all over again in the regular season? 

It has been a trying few years for the G-Men – a rash of injuries spoiled their 2017 season, and 2018 wasn’t much better. The Giants turned on the jets in the middle part of the season, but it was too little too late after a dreadful 1-7 start.

This offseason, the Giants moved on from multiple stars, though they stopped short of a complete rebuild. They shipped out Odell Beckham Jr. after his off-field distractions started to outweigh his on-field contributions. They moved defensive end Olivier Vernon to the Browns as well, recouping guard Kevin Zeitler, safety Jabrill Peppers, a first-round pick, and a third-round pick. Those trades weren’t especially popular with Giants fans, but their most controversial move might have been allowing star safety Landon Collins to walk without the franchise tag.

This much is clear: GM Dave Gettleman isn’t afraid to go against the grain to get what he wants. The replacements for OBJ and Vernon offer decidedly less in name value, but team brass is hoping that the character of Golden Tate and upside of Markus Golden will offset their departures.

A skeptic might say that the rival Jets have more upside and star power in their favor, but the Giants believe that Eli Manning can turn back the clock and allow them to bring along Daniel Jones at a slower pace. Meanwhile, they have an improved interior offensive line to block for Saquon Barkley.

One Vegas oddsmaker has pegged the Giants for a 4-11 record, splitting their difference between their last two seasons. Do you have more faith in the G-Men than the bookies? Or do you feel the Giants are on course for another top 10 pick?

Cast your vote below (link for app users) and back up your choice in the comments section:

Will The Giants Win Eight Or More Games In 2019?
No 71.96% (888 votes)
Yes 28.04% (346 votes)
Total Votes: 1,234

This Date In Transactions History: NFL Suspends Antonio Gates, Sheldon Richardson

The days leading up to the Fourth of July aren’t necessarily a hotbed of activity in the NFL. But, sometimes, the league office will use the cover of the holiday weekend to drop some unfavorable news. That’s what the NFL did on July 2, 2015 when it announced the suspensions of three notable players. 

Four years ago today, the league announced suspensions for Chargers tight end Antonio Gates, Jets defensive end Sheldon Richardson, and Cowboys linebacker Rolando McClain. All three players were banned for the first four games of the season – Gates for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drugs policy and McClain and Richardson for substance abuse policy violations.

Gates issued a statement soon after the suspension came down, saying that he tested positive for a substance that he was unaware was on the league’s banned list. At the time, it felt like the ban could signal the end of the Gates era in San Diego and the beginning of the Ladarius Green era. Green had flashed his immense physical tools in the past, but was buried behind Gates on the tight end depth chart. The youngster was productive in Gates’ absence, but Gates came storming back when he took the field and finished ahead of Green in all major statistical categories. In the following year, Green went on to sign an ill-fated contract with the Steelers and Gates remained as the team’s primary tight end.

Richardson’s suspension, meanwhile, probably hurt his standing with his team. Richardson’s suspension gave rookie Leonard Williams a chance to shine and further reinforced the perception of him as a bad teammate. The former first-round pick turned in the worst season of his career to date and lost upwards of $600K in salary and bonus money as a result of the suspension. The Jets tried hard to trade Richardson throughout the 2016 season, but could not find any takers. Then, just before the start of the ’17 campaign, they shipped him to the Seahawks for wide receiver Jermaine Kearse and a second-round pick.

McClain’s suspension was the result of violating the league’s substance abuse policy for a fourth time in his NFL career. In a statement, McClain vowed that he would “not break the rules of [his] profession in the future.” Unfortunately, he was unable to keep that promise. In 2016, McClain was suspended for substance abuse yet again, this time for ten games. He later failed another drug test midway through the season, and the NFL slapped him with an indefinite suspensionMcClain has reportedly battled an addiction to “purple drank” (a mixture of codeine-based cold medication and soda) and there has been no word of a potential comeback in some time.

The 2019 NFL Supplemental Draft, So Far

The exact date for the 2019 NFL Supplemental Draft has not yet been announced, but it is certain to take place in the month of July. So far, we have four known entrants in this year’s class:

Thompson, the most recent addition to the pool, is the most interesting name in the bunch. Unlike Clarington, Cullen, and Simms, he’s a near lock to get drafted – scouts had him pegged as a third or fourth-round pick prior to last season and his upcoming workout on July 8 is expected to be heavily attended by pro scouts. At this time, it’s not clear why Thompson was ruled ineligible for the 2019 NCAA season but, barring something shocking, he’s expected to find a home in the supplemental draft.

Clarington also holds some intrigue. The one-time Texas commit has tremendous athleticism for a 6’6″ tight end, though he’ll have to impress in workouts if he wants to be selected.

The supplemental draft allows NFL teams to select players who, for one reason or another, were barred from entering the regular draft in the spring. When a team selects a player in the supplemental draft, they forfeit the corresponding pick in the regular draft next year. For example, if a team selects a player in the sixth round of the supplemental draft this year, they will have to give up their 2020 sixth round selection.

This Date In Transactions History: Seahawks’ Kam Chancellor Retires

One year ago today, a charter member of the Legion of Boom walked away from football. Safety Kam Chancellor announced his retirement on July 1, 2018, bringing his memorable eight-year career to a close. 

[RELATED: Extension Candidate – Bobby Wagner]

Chancellor was among the hardest hitting safeties in the NFL, earning four Pro Bowl trips along the way. His tenacity helped the Seahawks capture their first ever Super Bowl victory following the 2013 season, a game in which Chancellor came away with a momentum-shifting interception in the early stages.

Unfortunately, a neck injury midway through the 2017 season changed the course of Chancellor’s career. And, despite his repeated insistence that he would play in 2018, doctors did not clear him to return to football.

Chancellor’s departure from the NFL marked yet another exit for a top-flight Seahawk. With Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman, Chancellor formed the NFL’s most notorious secondary. But, Chancellor followed Sherman and fellow key defenders Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril out the door. Thomas and others remained, but this clearly marked the end of an era for Seattle.

Although Chancellor announced his intention to retire on 7/1/19, he did not formally file paperwork with the NFL for contractual reasons. In May of 2019, the Seahawks made it all official by releasing him and wide receiver Doug Baldwin on the same day.

Poll: Who Is The 2019 NFC Favorite?

Unlike the AFC, where the same team has been the annual favorite for a few years now, the NFC has featured different Patriots opponents over the past three seasons. Since the Packers’ back-to-back Super Bowl appearances in 1996-97, only the 2013-14 Seahawks have repeated as conference champions.

When determining who should be considered the 2019 NFC favorite, we should first look at conference’s two best 2018 teams. While the Saints have one of NFL history’s greatest arguments for being the team that should have gone to a Super Bowl, the Rams did. Both teams bring back most of their core players.

The Rams lost more than the Saints this offseason, with their big-spending 2018 helping lead to the departures of Rodger Saffold, Lamarcus Joyner and Ndamukong Suh. Los Angeles brought back Dante Fowler and added Clay Matthews, giving the two-time reigning NFC West champions much bigger names on the edge than the ones that opened the ’18 season as starters, and signed Eric Weddle to replace Joyner. The Rams will trot out two new offensive linemen, likely 2018 mid-round picks Joseph Noteboom (at left guard) and Brian Allen (center). Cooper Kupp is also on track for Week 1. But Todd Gurley‘s status overshadows the rest of the Rams’ lineup; the team has kept information about its two-time All-Pro running back’s knee injury close to the vest.

Lagging just behind the Rams in Super Bowl LIV odds, the Saints lost Mark Ingram but added Latavius Murray. Max Unger retired, but New Orleans added both free agent Nick Easton and second-round pick Erik McCoy. The 2018 trades the Saints made left them without first-, third- and fourth-round picks this year, limiting their ability to enhance their roster cheaply. Drew Brees heads into his age-40 season, and while his arm strength may not be what it once was, he broke his own completion percentage record and was Pro Football Focus’ top-graded QB last season. The cogs chiefly responsible for the Saints’ No. 6 weighted DVOA defensive ranking also return.

The next tier, per Vegas, features the double-doink game’s participants. The Eagles were again active this year, bringing back DeSean Jackson and replacing Michael Bennett with Malik Jackson. Zach Brown also headed to eastern Pennsylvania on a low-cost deal. Philadelphia brought back Brandon Graham and Ronald Darby and extended Jason Kelce. Carson Wentz‘s extension will hit future Eagles caps harder, but his 2019 number ($8.393MM) helps Howie Roseman‘s ability to fortify the roster. After a busy 2018 free agency, the Bears had a quiet offseason. They lost DC Vic Fangio, the NFL’s assistant coach of the year, and may be in line for changes under replacement Chuck Pagano. Scrutinized quarterback Mitch Trubisky (No. 3 in 2018 QBR, No. 18 in Football Outsiders’ DYAR metric) obviously has the biggest say in where the Bears go.

Two out of the past three NFC champions missed the playoffs the year prior, and Vegas places the Packers as the top such candidate for 2019. Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur have expressed a difference of opinion about Green Bay’s offensive structure, but the Packers enjoyed their most active offseason in years. Brian Gutekunst spent wildly on edge rushers, with both Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith now each a top-five highest-paid 3-4 outside linebacker, and brought in Adrian Amos for $9MM annually. Did they do enough to get back in the Super Bowl mix?

While the Cowboys re-routed their season after their Amari Cooper trade, Las Vegas is not bullish on their chances. Dallas sits at 25-to-1 Super Bowl odds, the same as Seattle, Minnesota and San Francisco. Despite their NFC East title, the Cowboys ended last season as the No. 21 DVOA team.

The Seahawks lost one of the top receivers in franchise history, with Doug Baldwin retiring at age 30, and traded their best pass rusher. Ziggy Ansah and first-round pick L.J. Collier represent the team’s top edge options. Minnesota is all-in on this nucleus, with the Anthony Barr deal furthering Rick Spielman‘s massive financial commitments to the core he built. Do the Vikings (ninth in weighted DVOA last season) have enough talent to justify these expenses?

Will a team emerge unexpectedly? The 49ers have Jimmy Garoppolo set to suit up again and, after acquiring Dee Ford and Nick Bosa, boast their best edge corps in years. Are the Falcons (40-1) being undervalued? Vote in PFR’s latest poll (link for app users) and weigh in with your NFC assessments in the comments section.

Who is the 2019 NFC favorite?
New Orleans Saints 16.88% (771 votes)
Chicago Bears 16.55% (756 votes)
Philadelphia Eagles 13.51% (617 votes)
Green Bay Packers 11.87% (542 votes)
Minnesota Vikings 11.10% (507 votes)
Los Angeles Rams 10.27% (469 votes)
Dallas Cowboys 9.22% (421 votes)
Seattle Seahawks 6.48% (296 votes)
Another team (specify in comments) 4.14% (189 votes)
Total Votes: 4,568

PFR Originals: 6/23/19 – 6/30/19

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

  • PFR’s Extension Candidate series moved along this week, with five new entries.
    • With both A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd entering contract years, we looked at the statuses of each Bengals starting wide receiver. Zach Links expects Green’s next deal to end up around the Odell Beckham Jr. range ($18MM per year), but whether Green gets his money from Cincinnati may come down to what kind of hometown discount Green, who has said he wants to stay in southwest Ohio, is willing to take. As for the Bengals’ WR2, recent deals for Sterling Shepard — which Boyd pointed to — and Tyrell Williams coming in just north of $11MM annually make be Boyd’s extension price point, per Ben Levine.
    • While Sean McVay said the Rams want to extend Marcus Peters, Zach wonders if their recent history of letting corners walk — as they did with Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson — and Peters’ history of clashing with coaches will impede that. If not, it would stand to be a pricey extension.
    • PFR’s second extension candidate entry on Bobby Wagner popped up, and this time, Rory Parks tied the Seahawks linebacker to the mammoth, $17MM-AAV deal the Jets gave C.J. Mosley. Wagner has said he wants Mosley money, considering how much more accomplished the Seahawk is. This will be a fascinating negotiation.
    • Lastly, the NFL’s most famous player is entering a contract year. Tom Brady is set to take up $27MM of the Patriots‘ 2019 cap, and Zach looked at the rare case of a soon-to-be 42-year-old player lined up for a re-up. Another team-friendly discount, perhaps one that comes in between $20-$25MM AAV, could be on tap.
  • On the other side, teams’ new acquisitions have some holdover players in danger of being cut. PFR’s Release Candidate series featured four new chapters:
  • PFR’s This Date in Transactions History series looked at more past summer moves:
    • Despite not playing college football, future WWE and MMA superstar Brock Lesnar tried out for the Vikings in 2004. Zach looked at how that experiment went. The Vikings ended up offering Lesnar an opportunity, but the mammoth would-have-been defensive lineman had big plans off the gridiron.
    • A higher-profile NFL player also had an eventful summer of ’04, and Zach recalled the process that led to the Dolphins losing their starting running back. Ricky Williams did later return, but his career changed after his initial retirement.
    • The Steelers‘ pre-Chris Boswell kicker, Shaun Suisham, hung up his cleats three years ago this week. As Zach details, an ACL recovery setback led to the veteran specialist ending his career.
    • Julius Peppers recently concluded his second stint with the Panthers, but 10 years ago this week, the future Hall of Fame defensive end’s first was coming to a close. Peppers signed his franchise tag in 2009, and Zach looked at what it meant for both parties.
  • The PFR NFL glossary featured some updates as well:
    • Dallas Robinson looked at the physically unable to perform list, an entry which made the distinction between the active/PUP list — which applies to players who are not ready for training camp — and the more significant reserve/PUP list, which requires a six-week absence to start the regular season.
    • Detailing a glossary item that will soon become quite relevant, Zach went over the intricacies of the NFL’s waiver system.
  • On the subject of the waiver system, Dallas went through the Cardinals‘ offseason usage of their No. 1 spot in the 2019 waiver priority. Arizona began taking advantage of this late last season, with its most notable waiver claim coming in grabbing former Washington starter D.J. Swearinger.
  • The Raiders shelled out plenty of money to revamp their roster this offseason. With all their new starters, which figures to include each of their three first-round picks, Zach asked the PFR community how the Silver and Black’s overhaul will work out. The bulk of the readers assigned Oakland a “B” grade.
  • The Jets also doled out big sums this year, but they went through GM turmoil as well. Will the deals for Mosley, Le’Veon Bell and Co. pay off? Zach asked the PFR community if the Joe DouglasAdam Gase partnership will produce an eight-plus-win 2019 season. The answer was no.
  • As we enter training camp month, some high-profile names remain unsigned. Dallas looked at the list that includes Michael Crabtree, Jay Ajayi, Tre Boston, Nick Perry and Co.
  • While Todd Gurley‘s Rams contract tops the market presently, the Cardinals’ subsequent 2018 deal for David Johnson leads all running backs in 2019 cost. Zach looked at what teams are paying the best backs in the league.
  • Concluding a busy week for original content, Zach used Bo Jackson’s 1986 tale — being drafted by the Buccaneers at No. 1 overall but instead opting for a Kansas City Royals path — to show the options rookies have when they don’t sign their NFL contracts.

Extension Candidate: Tyler Boyd

When it comes to extension talk in Cincinnati, much of the focus is understandably on wide receiver A.J. Green. However, the player who follows Green on the depth chart is also eligible for a sizable raise.

Former second-round receiver Tyler Boyd is set to hit free agency following the 2019 season, and Paul Dehner Jr. of The Athletic wrote last month that the Bengals want to extend the 24-year-old. This doesn’t come as much of a surprise, as the wideout broke onto the scene last year.

Following a pair of underwhelming seasons to begin his career, Boyd had a breakout campaign in 2018, hauling in 76 receptions for 1,028 yards and seven touchdowns in 14 games. Part of his production could be attributed to the fact that Green missed seven games, placing Boyd atop the depth chart. On the flip side, the receiver also established a career-high catch percentage and yards-per-target.

Furthermore, Boyd adds a bit of toughness and personality to the Bengals, indicated by his decision to attend voluntary OTAs. As Dehner wrote, many extension-eligible players bypass these workouts in fear of an avoidable injury that could vicariously cost them millions. Boyd showed up anyway, stating that a pseudo-holdout would be an unnecessary distraction.

“I’m just trying to do what’s right,” Boyd said. “I’m going to be a team player and go out there and work my tail off. I’m not going to try to skip out on reps or miss a day. That’s the best approach to it. Typically, a guy trying to come out to a season saying, ‘you have to pay me,’ it shows where the care is going. He is a ‘me’ guy. Or, you are still working and going to be a team guy. I am not trying to strategize and make it seem like I’m just trying to do what’s right (to get a deal done), that’s just the way I am.”

So Boyd seems to be saying and doing all the right things, and he’s shown plenty of improvements on the field. So what kind of money will Boyd be eyeing on his next contract? The business-savvy receiver actually pointed to receiver Sterling Shepard‘s contract with the Giants, which was a four-year deal worth $41MM ($21.3MM guaranteed). Dehner suggested that Boyd could also focus on the deal that Tyrell Williams signed with the Raiders (four years, $44MM ($22MM guaranteed)).

As our own Dallas Robinson previously pointed out, Boyd topped Shepard in every offensive category this past season, and he finished higher than the Giants wideout in both Pro Football Focus‘ positional grades and Football Outsiders’ receiving metrics. Boyd’s 2019 season was comparable to Williams’ 2016 campaign, although Williams was older and coming off a pair of subpar seasons when he signed his recent deal with Oakland.

In other words, don’t be shocked if Boyd pushes for a contract that exceeds $11MM annually. Considering the receiver’s apparent affinity for Cincy, the guess here would be a four-year contract worth around $46MM (with a bit more than half guaranteed).

Of course, Boyd’s extension may be partly dependent on how the Bengals handle Green’s next deal. Regardless, expect Boyd’s superstar teammate to receive the first extension, at which time the front office will surely turn their focus to their fourth-year receiver.

Extension Candidate: Bobby Wagner

Bobby Wagner has one year left on his current contract with the Seahawks, and the two sides have begun extension talks. It’s unclear how much progress has been made, but with Wagner (understandably) aiming to break the $17MM/year payout that C.J. Mosley landed from the Jets this offseason, there may be some bumps in the road.

For what it’s worth, Robert Mays of The Ringer believes that the two sides will come to terms before the season begins. After all, the Seahawks are projected to have more than $75MM in cap space in 2020, and though they will be paying a ton of money to Russell Wilson for the foreseeable future and also want to extend Jarran Reed, they will be able to fit Wagner, one of the game’s best defensive players, on their books. As Mays notes, head coach Pete Carroll said back in March that, “Bobby’s going to be a Seahawk.”

Wagner attended this month’s minicamp but did not participate in team drills, and he has stated that he will continue to remain on the sidelines until he gets a new deal. And assuming he does get his wish this year, that deal could hit nine figures. Although the general consensus is that the Jets overpaid for Mosley, his five-year, $85MM pact has set the floor for Wagner, and Wagner is much more accomplished. He is a five-time Pro Bowler, four-time First Team All-Pro, and is a bonafide tackling machine, having averaged 140 tackles per year since he entered the league in 2012. The advanced metrics love him just as much as the raw numbers, as Pro Football Focus graded Wagner as the best off-ball linebacker in the league last season.

Wagner has always excelled against the run, and his coverage abilities now rival his run-stopping talents. And while some teams have devalued the inside linebacker role over the past few years, the league’s best quarterbacks exploit the middle of the field to great effect, which makes players like Wagner all the more valuable.

Indeed, Mays suggests that Wagner, who is representing himself, should shoot for a contract that pays him like one of the league’s best 4-3 defensive ends, because he has a similar impact on opposing offenses despite not being a pass rusher. That would mean a $100MM+ deal with an AAV of over $20MM and close to $50MM guaranteed at signing. And considering Wagner’s importance to the team, his place in franchise history, and his relative youth — the birthday boy turned 29 today — that sounds like a pretty reasonable guess.

The Seahawks, who surely don’t want to go to $20MM per year on Wagner’s next contract, could hold firm at whatever price they’ve set and try to put the franchise tag on Wagner next year (which is projected to carry a $16.8MM value). But going that route could lead to an ugly, Earl Thomas-esque battle, and it may be worth a couple million dollars to avoid that.

The guess here is that Wagner gets his contract at some point this summer and that he comes in just shy of the $100MM mark with a five-year, $95MM pact that includes roughly $45MM in fully-guaranteed money.

What Happens If An NFL Rookie Does Not Sign His Contract?

Under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, rookie contract negotiations are fairly textbook. Players are constricted by the confines of their draft slot, meaning that we have less holdouts and deal delays than ever. 

Still, draft picks are not mandated to sign with their respective clubs, and the drafting team does not hold the player’s rights in perpetuity. In theory, a player can hold out for the entire year and re-enter the draft in the following season. Even though NFL draft picks are boxed in by the slotting system and unable to choose their employer, they are not completely without leverage.

It’s been a while since we’ve seen a notable draft pick really go to the mat with his team, but it’s not unprecedented. In 1983, John Elway was selected first overall by the Baltimore Colts, but he threatened to pursue a career in Major League Baseball unless the team traded him elsewhere. Fearing that Elway’s threat was serious, the quarterback got his way when the Colts shipped him to the Broncos. Elway was satisfied with the trade, we never got to find out whether the future Hall of Famer would have followed through on his suggested season-long holdout.

In 1986, fellow two-sport star Bo Jackson refused to report to the Buccaneers after they drafted him No. 1 overall. Jackson spent the year in the Kansas City Royals’ organization instead and the Bucs were forced to renounce his rights prior to the 1987 draft. The Raiders, in turn, made one of the savviest seventh-round picks in franchise history when they selected the legendary athlete with the No. 183 overall pick.

It’s hard to imagine a drafted player taking a similar route today, but it’s always possible. A few years ago, Joey Bosa stared down the Chargers until the two sides finally reached an agreement on offset language in late August. The Chargers ultimately backed down from their position out of fear that Bosa could miss games as a rookie and maybe even re-enter the draft in 2017.

It’s safe to say that this year’s draft will not produce a year-long holdout, but a rookie’s ability to re-enter the draft is something to keep in mind for future disputes.

Poll: Will The Jets Reach .500 In 2019?

The Jets entered the 2018 offseason full of hope and a boatload of cap room. They emerged with the best available cornerback in Trumaine Johnson and drafted a potential franchise quarterback in Sam Darnold, giving them reason to believe in the coming year. The Jets hardly expected to contend, but they looked the part of a team that could make some noise and at least finish in the middle of the pack. 

That, of course, isn’t how things played out. The Jets finished the year 4-12, failing to improve on their five-win season in 2017.

With that, the Jets were in an eerily familiar position this offseason. Gang Green had more than $100MM in cash to burn and, once again, owned the No. 3 overall pick in the draft.

Much of their free cap space went to signing Le’Veon Bell, much to the chagrin of new head coach Adam Gase. In April, the Jets used the third pick to select defensive tackle Quinnen Williams – regarded by most as the best player available – rather than addressing more pressing needs, such as their lackluster edge rush. After signing the biggest star on the open market and overseeing one of the most crucial drafts in franchise history, GM Mike Maccagnan was given the heave-ho in favor of Eagles executive Joe Douglas.

The Jets’ past draft blunders and internal discord have been well-documented, but despite all their warts, the Jets have real talent on both sides of the ball. If Darnold is able to take a leap forward in 2019 and Bell is able to quickly shake off the rust, the Jets just might have a balanced attack good enough to keep defenses honest. Gang Green also boasts a quietly dangerous group of receivers, headlined by Robby Anderson, Quincy Enunwa, and Jamison Crowder.

Meanwhile, the Jets boast a fearsome interior defensive line and a serious upgrade at inside linebacker after C.J. Mosley supplanted Darron Lee. And, in the middle of the secondary, they have a young and exciting tandem of Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye.

Can Adams’ strong coverage skills offset the Jets’ possible deficiencies at cornerback? Can the Williamses do enough damage up front to allow the Jets’ iffy edge rush unit to penetrate the backfield? Can the arrival of two-time Pro Bowler Kelechi Osemele help to fortify the Jets’ offensive line?

If the answer to those questions is “yes,” then the Jets just might be a competitive football club in 2019.

Will the Jets reach or break the .500 mark this season? Cast your vote below (link for app users) and back up your choice in the comments section.

Will The Jets Win Eight Or More Games In 2019?
No 53.11% (786 votes)
Yes 46.89% (694 votes)
Total Votes: 1,480