Extension Candidate: Stefon Diggs
Back in May, we learned that the Vikings hoped to extend the contracts of a few of their key young players: Anthony Barr, Stefon Diggs, and Danielle Hunter. Hunter just signed a lucrative long-term deal at the end of June, which allows the team to turn its attention to Barr and Diggs. We have already examined Barr as an extension candidate, so now let’s take a deeper look into Diggs’ case for a new contract.
Earlier this decade, Diggs was one of the most sought-after high school recruits, a consensus five-star prospect who landed scholarship offers from blue-blood programs like USC, Ohio State, and Auburn. But Diggs, a Maryland native, spurned those offers and opted to play for his hometown school, which delighted Terrapins fans but which may have had a negative impact on his earning power during the early stages of his professional career. Although Diggs flashed his breathtaking talent at Maryland, he was held back to some degree by poor quarterback play and by injuries. so when he elected to forego his senior season and enter the NFL Draft in 2015, he slipped to the fifth round, where the Vikings finally scooped him up (Diggs’ smallish stature also didn’t help his cause).
It would be hard for Diggs to complain too much, though, as he has established himself as one of the best young wideouts in the league during his first three years in Minnesota, and he will head into his platform year with the prospect of catching passes from the best quarterback he has ever played with, Kirk Cousins. If all goes according to plan, Diggs could be one of the hottest commodities on the open market next offseason, and the Vikings would like to lock him up before that happens.
As usual, there are some issues for both sides to think about when negotiating Diggs’ big payday. Diggs has yet to top 1,000 yards in a season, and his professional career, much like his collegiate one, has been hampered by injuries. Though Diggs has not yet missed significant time as a pro, he has dealt with groin issues in each of the last two seasons, and he said he was “never the same” in 2017 after suffering a groin injury in Week 4. His knee and hip have also given him problems.
On the other hand, the receiver market has been booming, and Joel Corry of CBS Sports believes that Davante Adams‘ four-year, $58.5MM extension with the Packers would be a realistic foundation for contract discussions (after all, Adams has not yet cracked the 1,000-yard mark either, and he only recently became Green Bay’s No. 1 receiving option). Alternatively, now that the Vikings have Hunter under contract for the foreseeable future, Diggs could be hit with the franchise tag next offseason, though the $17MM projected tag number for receivers may be unpalatable for Minnesota, regardless of how good Diggs is in 2018.
Corry suggests that, in light of the massive contracts that relatively unaccomplished receivers are pulling down, Diggs may be inclined to test the open market even if he ultimately wants to remain with the Vikings. The guess here, though, is that the two sides will reach an accord before Diggs officially hits free agency. Minnesota has a track record of extending its key players during contract years, and the chance to lock in a boatload of guaranteed money may be too enticing for Diggs to pass up, as he has played the first few years of his career on a bargain fifth-round rookie deal. He will likely not reset the receiver market even if he becomes a free agent, and Minnesota will certainly pay him like a top-10 player at his position. A four-year pact in the neighborhood of $60MM, with $20MM or so in guarantees, seems like a good bet.
Extra Points: Steelers, Bell, Giants, OBJ, Collins, Dolphins, Quinn
Le’Veon Bell appears likely to again remain away from the Steelers all summer. Similarly to last year, he’s expected to show up right before the regular season as he angles for a longterm extension that will make him the highest paid running back in league history.
Until he shows up, Bell won’t be signing his franchise tender. That’s in contrast to the other players who’ve been tagged such as Lamarcus Joyner, Demarcus Lawrence, and Ezekiel Ansah, who have all signed their tenders. If there’s no progress on a longterm deal and the relationship between the two sides sour, the Steelers could even rescind Bell’s tender before he signs it and play the 2018 season without him, says Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com. While Florio says that option “remains unlikely”, he thinks it’s a possibility and notes it would put Bell in a “tough spot” as most teams’ salary caps and rosters would be set by then.
It’s a long-shot, but the Steelers seem to think they need Bell less than everyone else. Crazier things have happened.
Here’s more from around the league:
- Giants stars Landon Collins and Odell Beckham Jr. will get $12MM and $18MM per year on their next contracts, writes cap expert Jason Fitzgerald of Overthecap.com (Twitter link), but they won’t both be with New York, he opines. Fitzgerald thinks at least one will be signing with a team other than the Giants. At this point, Collins seems the likelier of the two to be allowed to walk, considering it was reported recently the team had concerns about his fit with their new scheme.
- The Dolphins did a lot of revamping this offseason, and one of the moves they made was trading for defensive end Robert Quinn. With fellow pass-rusher Cameron Wake now 36, the Dolphins are hoping Quinn can “anchor the defensive line for the foreseeable future” according to Mike Rodak of ESPN. The Dolphins gave up a fourth round pick to get him, and it sounds like he’ll be playing a big role in 2018.
- In case you missed it, our Ben Levine took a look back at Kerry Collins’ decision to retire on this day seven years ago.
AFC Notes: Jets, Carpenter, Browns, Supplemental Draft, Titans, Colts, Nelson
James Carpenter has been the starting left guard for the Jets for the past three seasons, but 2018 is likely to be his last with the team, according to Brian Costello of the New York Post. Carpenter is heading into the final year of the four-year $19MM deal he signed with New York back in 2015. Carpenter’s play declined significantly last season, and as he ages Costello thinks the team will let him walk.
He’s been remarkably durable, never missing a game due to injury during his time with the Jets. Costello thinks the Jets will use the “boatload of salary cap space in 2019” that they’ll have to upgrade the offensive line and find Carpenter’s replacement. He thinks “revamping the offensive line” will be a “top priority” in next year’s free agency.
Here’s more from around the AFC:
- Nate Ulrich of the Akron Beacon-Journal took a look at this year’s Supplemental Draft and whether the Browns would make a move. He came away thinking that GM John Dorsey‘s “aggressive” approach may lead him to use a selection on one of the cornerbacks available in the draft despite the Browns’ recent upgrades to their secondary.
- If an undrafted player makes the Titans, it’s likely to be a receiver according to Jim Wyatt of Titansonline.com. Due to uncertainty on the receiver depth chart behind Corey Davis, Wyatt thinks there could be a three way battle between undrafted receivers Jordan Veasy, Deontay Burnett, and Devin Ross for a roster spot.
- Number six overall pick Quenton Nelson appears to be adjusting to the NFL quickly, and the Colts are taking notice. “His impeccable technique and ability to quickly pick up schemes turned the heads of many of his teammates and the coaching staff while working with the first unit throughout offseason workouts” writes Mike Wells of ESPN.
NFC Notes: Rams, Joyner, Eagles, Redskins, Dez Bryant
The deadline to reach deals with players who were franchised tagged was set by the league as July 16th. If a player and a team can’t agree on a deal by then, they aren’t allowed to agree to a longterm deal until after the 2018 season is over. One notable player who’s been tagged is Rams safety Lamarcus Joyner. Joyner remains unsigned, and there has been little progress on a deal according to recent reports. Fellow Rams defensive star Aaron Donald might be one reason why.
The Rams “would probably have a hard time giving big money to Joyner before finally extending the contract of” Donald, writes Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com. Given how much talk there has been about when Donald will get the contract extension he’s been wanting for over a year now, it might be bad optics for the team to extend Joyner first. Rams fans have been growing impatient with the front office over their inability to cut a deal with Donald. Donald held out all summer last year and ended up missing the first game of the season. If the Rams are reluctant to pay Joyner before Donald is locked up, it could mean Joyner heads into 2019 an unrestricted free agent.
Here’s more from around the NFC:
- Breaking down the Eagles’ secondary, Eliot Shorr-Parks of NJ.com sees a three way battle for the team’s final cornerback spot between De’Vante Bausby, D.J. Killings, and Chandon Sullivan. Shorr-Parks thinks Bausby is clearly in the lead and well on his way to a roster spot, whereas Killings and Sullivan will need to have “amazing” training camps and preseasons to make the 53-man roster.
- Dez Bryant will end up with the Redskins when he finally signs, predicts Jason Fitzgerald of Overthecap.com (Twitter link). Fitzgerald, a salary cap expert, thinks Bryant “won’t get much” in terms of compensation on whatever deal he signs.
- In case you missed it, another player who’s been franchised tagged and is looking for an extension, DeMarcus Lawrence, will meet with the Cowboys next week to talk about a deal.
Extra Points: Packers, Cobb, Matthews, Buccaneers, Beckwith, Jets, McGuire
Randall Cobb and Clay Matthews are two of the longest tenured members of the Packers, but their time in Green Bay could be coming to an end. There’s been a drop in production for both in recent years and both are heading into the final year of their contracts. Both have non-guaranteed salaries for 2018, and could be cap-casualties this summer.
When asked which big names could be on the chopping block this summer, Jason Fitzgerald of Overthecap.com listed both Cobb and Matthews (Twitter link). Cobb has been held to less than 700 receiving yards in back to back seasons and was recently spotted in a walking boot. If the Packers do decide to move on from either player, it would be the end of a very successful era for the fan favorites.
Here’s more from around the NFL:
- Buccaneers linebacker and 2017 third round pick Kendell Beckwith was in a car accident back in April that broke his ankle, but there was “optimism” within the organization that there is no “significant” ligament damage, according to Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). It appears Beckwith, who started 11 games for the Bucs in 2017, could be ready for training camp.
- The Jets have always been high on 2016 sixth-rounder Elijah McGuire, but his roster spot is not guaranteed, according to Andy Vasquez of NorthJersey.com. The Jets’ running backs coach recently compared McGuire to LaDainian Tomlinson, but due to the acquisitions of Isaiah Crowell and Thomas Rawls this offseason, McGuire will “need a strong training camp and preseason” to make the Jets, writes Vasquez.
- In case you missed it, our Zach Links took a look at a possible contract extension for the Eagles’ Brandon Graham.
West Notes: Thomas, Chiefs, Rams
More noise is coming out of the Earl Thomas trade front. The Seahawks‘ status as a rebuilding team — one that’s lost core defenders Michael Bennett, Richard Sherman, Cliff Avril and Kam Chancellor — should make them come back to the Cowboys about the Thomas trade the teams discussed on draft weekend, Brian Broaddus of the Cowboys’ website said during an interview with 105.3 The Fan in Dallas.
“The Cowboys have to look at their situation at safety and figure out is this going to be good enough? Are we able to compete for a division? To get in the playoffs? Could Earl Thomas be a guy, could he be a difference-maker?” Broaddus said, (via the Dallas Morning News). “I feel like that the Earl Thomas situation still is in play. It’s just a matter of where Seattle is going to be. I don’t believe Earl Thomas is going to sit out games for Seattle. I really, really don’t. You’re talking about a guy that makes over $10 million. Players just don’t leave those checks on the field just for principle, for that reason. I think that Seattle is going to have to figure out something. The Cowboys are going to have to figure out something. And maybe they do work something out there.”
This isn’t the first time we’ve heard the Seahawks-Cowboys connection potentially resurfacing regarding an employer change for the All-Pro safety. Thomas skipped minicamp and has one year left on his deal, but the Cowboys are thin at safety to the point it’s logical the sides will revisit these talks.
Here’s the latest from the West divisions as we near training camps opening.
- Kendall Fuller will not only be expected to be the Chiefs‘ slot cornerback after coming to Kansas City via offseason trade; he’ll be counted on now to be their No. 1 corner, Adam Teicher of ESPN.com writes. This would mean a starting role as an outside cover man and shifts into the slot on passing downs. The 5-foot-11 Fuller would have big shoes to fill in replacing historically productive ball hawk Marcus Peters. The Chiefs, though, do not have an obvious Peters replacement lined up. They signed David Amerson, but that amounts to more of a flier-type deal. This position may be K.C.’s biggest concern heading into the season.
- The Chiefs also authorized a surprising amount of money ($16MM AAV) for Sammy Watkins, who, on the surface, would figure to be the team’s nominal No. 2 wide receiver behind Tyreek Hill. In an offense that funnels through All-Pro Travis Kelce and now has reigning rushing champ Kareem Hunt, Watkins could be deemed as a superfluous cog on a team that needed much more help on defense. However, Teicher notes the Chiefs want Watkins to be more than a No. 2 wideout and writes that the team’s offense will function best if Kelce, Hill and Watkins post similar receiving numbers. That has not been the case in K.C. for years, with the franchise largely eschewing the complementary receiver spots. Watkins represented a major deviation from that philosophy.
- Heading into camp, the Rams are planning to use third-year UDFA Cory Littleton as Alec Ogletree‘s replacement, Lindsay Thiry of ESPN.com notes. Littleton started four games and made 31 tackles last season. Rams LBs coach Joe Barry serves as an important advocate for Littleton, indicating he wanted the undrafted ‘backer in Washington when he was a Redskins assistant two years ago. Now, Littleton will be tasked with a key second-level job on a star-studded defense. “When we were in Washington we loved him,” Barry said, via Thiry. “I was on the table the entire third day of the draft to draft him.”
Poll: Which Rookie RB Will Rush For Most Yards In 2018?
In selecting their third first-round running back of this century, the Giants continued to show how they regard this position despite its marginalization over the past several years. Saquon Barkley is the odds-on favorite to win offensive rookie of the year.
However, the running back position produces annual mid- or late-round surprises — from Devonta Freeman to Jordan Howard to Kareem Hunt — that end up providing immense value to certain teams. The Giants obviously have an incredibly gifted ball-carrier set to take handoffs from Eli Manning, but which of Barkley’s peers is in the best position to challenge him (and the quarterback contingent) for the OROY honor?
The other two first-round RBs look to be less equipped for a strong challenge due to circumstances.
Sony Michel‘s prospects of being an immediate ground producer may have been better on a different team. While the Patriots boast one of the NFL’s best offensive lines, Bill Belichick notoriously finds myriad usages for his backs and involves nearly all of them. Although, Dion Lewis‘ departure after a 180-carry season opens the door for someone to take over as New England’s primary back. And Michel averaged 7.9 yards per carry on 156 totes at Georgia last season. Rashaad Penny looks to be behind Chris Carson to start the season, and the surprise first-rounder may be given time to develop for a Seattle team that’s struggled on the ground for a few years now.
After Round 1, however, it becomes a bit more interesting. The Buccaneers did not possess a formidable depth chart at running back prior to investing their second-round pick in USC’s Ronald Jones. In 2017, Jones rushed for 1,550 yards and scored 20 total touchdowns. He could well be an early-season starter, with the likes of Jacquizz Rodgers and Peyton Barber in his path toward a first-string role. Chosen just before Jones, Nick Chubb will have to contend with Carlos Hyde in Cleveland this season for the revamped Browns. Chubb, though, notched three 1,000-yard seasons in the nation’s toughest conference.
Kerryon Johnson looks to be set to start in a committee in Detroit, but the Lions have been desperate for a surefire ground producer for years now. And they view Johnson as a three-down back. LeGarrette Blount and Ameer Abdullah reside in the Motor City carries picture, but neither would impede Johnson from a major role if he proves ready from the outset. Derrius Guice could have a quicker path to playing time in Washington. Considered by some the second-best back in this draft, the LSU product fell largely because of character concerns. However, Guice averaged 7.6 yards per carry in 2016 on nearly 200 attempts and is expected to push for the Redskins’ starting job from the start.
Also expected to challenge for an early role: the Broncos’ Royce Freeman. The Oregon-developed talent posted three 1,300-plus-yard seasons with the Ducks, amassing a staggering 947 college carries. With the Broncos having moved on from four-year starter C.J. Anderson, only Devontae Booker (299 rushing yards last season) resides in the third-rounder’s path. Is he a threat to be the 2018 version of Hunt?
As for Barkley, he has the most obvious route to a full-time gig. Despite Jonathan Stewart now being in the Big Apple, the Penn State dynamo will factor in from the start of the Giants’ season. And the three-down back totaled at least 2,300 yards from scrimmage in back-to-back years for the Nittany Lions. The Giants have questions up front, having lost Justin Pugh and Weston Richburg, but they added multiple UFAs — spearheaded by Nate Solder — and chose likely Day 1 starter Will Hernandez in Round 2.
So, will Barkley’s situation be too much for the rest of this class to overcome, a la Ezekiel Elliott? Or will one of the later-round picks emerge in Hunt fashion? Is there a Day 3 dark horse in this year’s class in the mold of Freeman or Howard? Take PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section!
Bears Rumors: Daniels, Robinson, Helfrich
Looking to sport at least two Day 1 starters from this 2018 draft class, the Bears also believe they acquired two first-round-caliber talents in April. Chicago brass placed a Round 1 grade on Iowa center James Daniels, whom the Bears selected at No. 39 overall.
“We had him as a first-round player,” Bears director of player personnel Josh Lucas said during an episode of Meet the Rookies (via Bryan Perez of NBC Sports Chicago). “You never know. Every team’s going to have different flavors with interior linemen. It’s just one of those things that you hope he’s there. But based on our grades, based on where we saw the top 32 players in the draft, we definitely weren’t anticipating him being there.”
The Warren, Ohio, native served as the Hawkeyes’ starting center for the past two seasons before declaring for the draft after his junior year. However, the Bears plan to use him at left guard to replace Josh Sitton, per Perez. Cody Whitehair will make the transition back to center full-time. He served as Chicago’s snapper in 16 games as a rookie in 2016 but saw action at both center and guard in 2017.
Here’s the latest from the Windy City:
- In recovering from the torn ACL that ended his 2017 season and his time with the Jaguars, Allen Robinson did not take part in most of the Bears’ offseason work. However, the former Pro Bowl target is expected to be full go by the time the Bears convene for camp July 19, Jeff Dickerson of ESPN.com reports. Robinson will be playing on a $14MM-per-year contract and will be essential to Chicago’s passing attack from Day 1, provided he can shake off the knee injury.
- On the subject of Bears receivers, Taylor Gabriel, not Robinson, will be slotted at the position that Tyreek Hill plays in this scheme, Perez notes. Although Robinson delivered dominant work on deep balls with Blake Bortles in a breakout 2015 season, Gabriel profiles as the player who more closely resembles Hill on this new-look receiving corps. He’s twice averaged more than 16 yards per reception in a four-year career.
- Chicago’s new offense won’t just be an NFC version of Andy Reid‘s. While Chiefs viewers who find their way to Bears games on Sundays will see familiar concepts, Matt Nagy‘s attack will also contain elements from OC Mark Helfrich‘s former Oregon offenses, Mitch Trubisky said (via Tom Pelissero of NFL.com, on Twitter). The 2017 No. 2 overall pick said the Bears’ new offense is more complex than he’s accustomed to, so it will be interesting to see how the North Carolina product looks with a mostly new cast of pass-catchers. With the Chiefs using plenty of college concepts in recent years, and the Bears hiring a former college HC, Trubisky could be piloting one of the more unique offenses in the NFL this season.
NFC Notes: Vernon, Seahawks, Buccaneers, Redskins
As part of new defensive coordinator James Bettcher‘s blitz-happy, aggressive 3-4 defense, the Giants will be moving Olivier Vernon from a defensive end to a pass-rushing outside linebacker. As a result of this change, Matt Lombardo of NJ.com believes the 27-year-old will end up being the key to a successful Giants defense.
“We know [Olivier Vernon] is a dynamic guy,” Bettcher said. “He’s a guy that can rush from different angles, a guy that you can move around and put in different matchups. And he’s embraced everything that we’ve done to this point. I’ve loved working with him and I think he’s making some great progress, not just in this scheme, but I think as I’ve looked at him as a player, he’s sharpening his tools right now.”
Since joining the Giants prior to the 2016 season, Vernon has compiled 15 sacks. While the defender averaged more sacks during his final three seasons with the Dolphins, Lombardo believes the position change should boost the former third-rounder’s numbers.
Let’s take a look at some more notes from around the NFC…
- If the Seahawks want to push for a playoff spot next season, ESPN’s Brady Henderson believes five players will have to lead the way: quarterback Russell Wilson, free safety Earl Thomas, linebacker Bobby Wagner, defensive end Frank Clark, and receiver Doug Baldwin. Thomas is a particularly surprising inclusion considering his uncertain status for next year. However, consider the losses of Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor, Thomas’ savvy could be particularly valuable to a younger Seahawks defense.
- Meanwhile, ESPN’s Jenna Laine looked at the players who would be crucial to a Buccaneers playoff run: quarterbacks Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick, wideout Mike Evans, defensive tackle Vita Vea, defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, and cornerback Vernon Hargreaves. The 6-foot-4, 347-pound Vea is of particular intrigue, as Tampa Bay will be eyeing match-ups with a handful of notable quarterbacks and running backs next season.
- Rich Tandler of NBC Sports Washington says no one would be surprised if the Redskins add an offensive guard before the regular season begins. If their supplemental picks go as planned, the organization should be armed with 11 selections in next year’s draft, so the writer believes the team could bail on one of the picks for some reinforcement on the offensive line. Following an underwhelming season, guard Shawn Lauvao would probably be the current member of the line who is most at risk of losing his starting gig.
AFC Notes: Verrett, Raiders, Browns, Stephenson
Chargers cornerback Jason Verrett has appeared in five totals games over the past two seasons. The 27-year-old is excited to head into the 2018 season fully healthy, and he’s ready to return to his Pro Bowl level.
“I think it’s going to be a little bit more juice, just dealing with the fact that I lost two seasons,” Verrett told Hayley Elwood of Chargers.com (via Charean Williams of ProFootballTalk.com). “I’m hungry. I’m going to grind. I’m going to grind, grind, grind. They’re going to see the Pro Bowl player they saw in 2015.”
The former first-rounder had a breakout season in 2015, compiling 42 tackles, 12 passes defended, and three interceptions en route to a Pro Bowl nod. However, the cornerback has recently been battling through a torn ACL that he suffered during the 2016 campaign.
Starters Trevor Williams and Casey Hayward will still be around next season, but Verrett will be given every opportunity to contribute if he’s healthy.
“We can be real special,” Verrett said. “I know it’s a tough for the coaches to make a decision on who’s going to go out there, just because of how deep we are. But I think just how tight we are as a group, it’s going to allow us to keep feeding off each other. Everyone’s going be wanting to get better each and every day because you know the guys behind you are going to want to be where you are.”