Dolphins Fear QB Ryan Tannehill Has Torn ACL
The Dolphins pulled out a last-second win over the Cardinals today, but despite that victory, Miami’s playoff hopes have still taken a massive hit. Dolphins head coach Adam Gase told reporters that the club fears quarterback Ryan Tannehill has suffered a torn ACL, according to Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald (Twitter link).
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Heading into today’s game, the Dolphins had something close to a one-in-five chance of earning a postseason berth — Football Outsiders gave Miami a 31.9% chance, while FiveThirtyEight put the Dolphins’ odds at just 23%. Clearly, those figures will increase after Miami’s win today (plus losses from other AFC contenders such as Denver and Indianapolis), but the club will now likely have to fight its way to into the tournament with its backup quarterback, Matt Moore.
Moore, 32, is one of the more experienced No. 2 signal-callers in the NFL, as he has 25 career starts under his belt. However, the last of those starts came during the 2011 campaign, so it’s fair to wonder what Moore has left in the tank. That 2011 season was a high-water mark for Moore, as he threw 16 touchdowns and led Miami to a 6-6 record in 12 starts. In his small sample against Arizona today, Moore completed three of five passes for 40 yards.
With Moore under center, the Dolphins figure to lean even more heavily on their running game, which ranks third in the league in DVOA and features Jay Ajayi, who is now closing in on 1,000 yards on the ground. Additionally, Miami’s passing attack isn’t short on weapons, as Moore will be throwing to Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills, and emergent tight end Dion Sims.
For Tannehill, the injury obviously marks a disappointing end to what can only be described as a middling season. So far in 2016, the 28-year-old Tannehill has posted numbers right in line with his career marks — through 12 starts, he’d completed 66.7% of his passes for 2,800 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions while ranking 25th in DYAR and 27th in DVOA.
Under the terms of a four-year extension signed in the summer of 2015, Tannehill is under contract with the Dolphins through the 2020 season. He’s guaranteed $3.5MM of his $17.975MM base salary in 2017. Miami wouldn’t be able to part ways with Tannehill while he’s injured, and it likely wouldn’t consider that route given the financial ramifications and the fact that the club showed progress under Gase this season.
5 Key Stories: 12/4/16 – 12/11/16
Injuries hit contending teams. A number of possible playoff clubs were affected by injury issues this week, as Seahawks safety Earl Thomas (link), Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul (link), Chiefs linebacker Derrick Johnson (link), and Vikings safety Harrison Smith (link) all went down and now face various recovery times. Thomas and Johnson are done for the season (but Johnson, even at age-34, isn’t considering retirement), but Pierre-Paul and Smith could possibly return later this year, depending on their respective teams’ postseason chances.
Trouble in La-La Land? The Rams recently announced extensions for general manager Les Snead and head coach Jeff Fisher, but discord between the two decision-makers could threaten to disrupt the franchise. As Albert Breer of TheMMQB.com reported last week, the animosity between Snead and Fisher has been an “open secret in league circles for some time, and some sources even labeled the club “Rams Junior High.” Both Snead and Fisher, predictably, have denied any such rancor.
Changes possible in Buffalo. Bills general manager Doug Whaley last week refused to commit to quarterback Tyrod Taylor, on whom the club holds an option that would kick in an extra $30.5MM in guarantees. Although some reports have indicated that Buffalo hasn’t yet made a decision on Taylor, the trend line seems to show that the team won’t exercise its option. Meanwhile, head coach Rex Ryan‘s relationship with Whaley is strained, and he could be fired as soon as Monday if the Bills continue to lose.
RG3 in CLE. For the first time since Week 1, Robert Griffin III was back on a football field, as he started today’s Browns game against the Bengals. Frankly, RG3 wasn’t effective in today’s loss, as he completed only 12 of 28 attempts for 104 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception (though he did add 31 yards rushing). Head coach Hue Jackson, however, has already indicated that Griffin will start again next week as Cleveland uses this final four-game stretch to decide whether RG3 will return in 2017.
Late-season extensions in vogue. As the year progresses, teams that have a good deal of 2016 cap space left over are trying to use it up, extending young players while taking the financial hit immediately. The 49ers locked up tight end Vance McDonald to a five-year, $35MM deal, the Falcons signed cornerback Robert Alford for four years and $38MM, and the Browns inked cornerback Jamar Taylor to a three-year, $15MM pact.
Jamaal Charles Could Return For Playoffs
Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles has a “realistic chance” to return from injured reserve and contribute during the postseason, a source tells Adam Schefter of ESPN.com. Charles was placed on IR on November 1 and is technically eligible to play again in Week 17, but Kansas City is apparently eyeing a playoff return for its veteran back.
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Nearly every report on Charles since he had surgery on both knees — dual procedures which increased the possibility he’d play again this season — has been positive and indicated a likelihood that Charles would be a factor during the postseason. Ian Rapoport of NFL.com reported the day after Charles’ operations that he could probably return this season, and reaffirmed that notion just last week.
The Chiefs are a near-lock to secure a postseason berth, and also have a good chance of earning a first-round bye — FiveThirtyEight gives Kansas City an 81% chance of avoiding Wild Card weekend, the second-best odds in the AFC behind New England. A bye could be important for Charles, as it would give him an extra week to recover before getting back on the field. If the Chiefs do get a bye, Charles would get roughly 10 weeks off between November 1 and a mid-January playoff game.
Charles, who turns 30 years old later this month, managed to play in only three games this season, and put up just 40 yards rushing on 12 carries. In his absence, Spencer Ware has become Kansas City’s primary running back, posting nearly 800 yards thus far in 2016. Charcandrick West has chipped in, as well, while the Chiefs also recently re-acquired Knile Davis.
2017 Salary Cap Expected To Be $163-165MM
The 2017 NFL salary cap is expected to be set between $163MM and $165MM, sources tell Adam Schefter of ESPN.com. Given that the cap was $155.27MM for the 2016 season, the 2017 projected figure would represent an increase of roughly five to six percent.
The salary cap will continue the incredible upward trajectory it has been on since 2013. Here’s what the league’s salary cap has looked like over the last few years:
- 2013: $123MM
- 2014: $133MM
- 2015: $143.28MM
- 2016: $155.27MM
The NFL’s management council will submit their first 2017 cap projections to the league’s owners during meetings this week, according to Schefter, and the NFL will then announce the final cap number early next year, typically in February or March before the new league year opens. The salary cap, of course, affects not only teams’ roster moves for the entire season, but the figures used in franchise/transition tag calculations.
Last week, Joel Corry of CBSSports.com projected those franchise/transition totals, but used a preliminary salary cap of $168MM — $3MM more than the high end of Schefter’s range — to do so. As Corry tweets today, the final salary cap is typically 3-3.25% greater than the low end of the initial projections. If that trend holds, the 2017 cap figures to come in at more than $168MM.
Bill Polian Receptive To Front Office Offers
Longtime NFL general manager Bill Polian is open to returning to a front office job, and would “strongly consider” a senior advisory role if offered, according to Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com. The Bears, specifically, could be one option for Polian if Chicago decides to rework its decision-making structure.
[RELATED: Chicago Bears Depth Chart]
The Bears could restructure its front office after the season, per La Canfora, but it’s unclear whether that would mean parting ways with current general manager Ryan Pace. In any event, Polian sounds more open to a “football czar” role in which he could oversee a franchise’s roster machinations and coaching staff from a 30,000-foot view. While the Rams have also been tossed out as a contender for Polian’s services, the veteran executive is said to prefer a Midwestern team.
Polian was thought to be in talks for a advisory role with the Bills prior to the 2015 season, but ultimately decided to remain an ESPN contributor. Polian continued to offer informal advice to Bills owner Terry Pegula in the following months, but indicated that he wasn’t interested in a formal job with Buffalo. “If anybody asks, sure. If anyone has questions, I’m happy to answer and happy to help in any way I can,” Polian said at the time.
Polian, 74, has worked as the general manager of three teams: the Bills, the Panthers, and most recently, the Colts, with whom he won a Super Bowl in 2007. Indianapolis fired him as GM after the 2011 season. A highly-decorated personnel man, Polian is a six-time recipient of the NFL’s Executive of the Year award and a 2015 Hall of Fame inductee.
Bills Head Coach Rex Ryan’s Job In Jeopardy
Rex Ryan is exceedingly unlikely to return as the Bills’ head coach in 2017, and if the club suffers an embarrassing loss to the Steelers later today, Ryan could be fired as soon as Monday, a source tells Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com. If Ryan is let go, Buffalo would likely promote offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn to interim head coach, according to Tim Graham of the Buffalo News.
[RELATED: Bills GM Refuses To Commit To Tyrod Taylor]
The Bills could still finish the 2016 campaign strong, and with four winnable games remaining on the schedule (Buffalo is set to face Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Miami, and New York), the club could win out, finish with a record of 10-6, and compete for an AFC wild card slot. Such a scenario remains unlikely, however — Football Outsiders gives the Bills just a 9.9% chance of making the playoffs — and Ryan’s crumbling status in Buffalo appears to have deeper roots than simply the team’s win-loss record.
Per La Canfora, the relationship between Ryan and general manager Doug Whaley is heavily strained, and Whaley may hold the upper hand given that he’s developed a “strong bond” with team ownership. Whaley and the Buffalo front office have repeatedly indicated that the Bills’ roster is better than its record, laying blame for this season’s results at the feet of Ryan, and have shared that belief with owner Terry Pegula. The Bills have seemingly decided against the idea of hiring a “football czar” to oversee operations — a role that Bill Polian and Tom Coughlin have been considered for in the past — meaning Whaley’s job should be safe.
Other personnel and coaching staff problems abound, such as the poor reaction to Ryan’s decision to hire his brother — longtime NFL defensive coordinator Rob Ryan — as a defensive assistant. Additionally, the Buffalo front office would like to see fourth-round quarterback Cardale Jones take the field at some point this season, as the club is highly unlikely to exercise its option on incumbent signal-caller Tyrod Taylor.
Browns Eyeing Texas A&M DE Myles Garrett
The Browns are increasingly likely to secure the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft (Football Outsiders gives Cleveland an 80.5% chance of picking first), and instead of targeting a quarterback, the club may look to improve its defense with the selection. The Cleveland front office has an “astronomical grade” on Texas A&M edge rusher Myles Garrett, a source tells Adam Schefter of ESPN.com.
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Garrett, 20, is listed as the top 2017 collegiate prospect on nearly every draft guru’s big board, and is a lock to be chosen in the top-five of next year’s draft. At 6’5″, 265 pounds, Garrett should have the ability to play either defensive end in a 4-3 scheme or outside linebacker in a 3-4 look, and the Browns (who play the latter front), are reportedly “enamored” with the Aggie junior, per Schefter.
Although he’s been hampered by an early-season ankle injury, Garrett has still managed to post 8.5 sacks in nine games this year, bringing his career total to 31 in 33 contests.A first-team All-American in 2016, Garrett has previously been compared to NFL pass rushers such as Von Miller, Joey Bosa, and the retired Javon Kearse. “Generational player. Nothing he can’t do. Scheme-wrecker. Complete player,” one area scout told Albert Breer of TheMMQB.com earlier this year.
The Browns aren’t completely abandoning the idea of drafting a quarterback early, however, and scout Lake Dawson has been spending an “inordinate” amount of time in South Bend scouting Notre Dame signal-caller DeShone Kizer, reports Schefter, who notes that Cleveland does hold an extra first-round pick thanks to a trade with Philadelphia. Previous reports have also indicated that the Browns are focusing their efforts on North Carolina QB Mitch Trubisky, another projected first-round pick.
Rams’ Jeff Fisher, Les Snead Dispute Tension
Although a report yesterday indicated that Rams general manager Les Snead and head coach Jeff Fisher are at odds — and that the problems between the two “have been an open secret in league circles for some time” — both men today disputed any notion of discord in the Los Angeles offices, according to Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.com.
[RELATED: Los Angeles Rams Depth Chart]
“I’m well aware of what has come out, and I can say this: I think it’s painted a picture totally different,” Snead said. “Relationship’s really good. We’ve worked together from the start, in every decision. Every decision that’s made, especially from a personnel standpoint.”
“There’s no issues between Les and I, by no means,” Fisher said. “We agree to disagree. We’ve had a fun run, but we’re certainly disappointed in, as I said on Tuesday, the outcome. We have work to do, but we’re doing it together.” Fisher additionally vowed to locate the source of the story. “When you’re 4-8, people are frustrated, you know? They’re frustrated. We need to find out where it’s coming from.”
The Rams recently extended both Snead and Fisher, though at least Fisher had actually put pen to paper in the summer despite the announcement not coming until this month. Both decision-makers are believed to have been signed through the 2017 season, with Los Angeles ownership likely holding a 2018 option. Fisher, for his part, said he was “unaware” Snead was also handed a new deal, and appeared to take a shot at the club’s recent draft strategy.
Chiefs LB Derrick Johnson Not Considering Retirement
Despite suffering a torn Achilles on Thursday night, Chiefs linebacker Derrick Johnson doesn’t have any plans to retire, as Ed Werder of ESPN.com (Twitter link). “I will play again,” said Johnson, who does plan to undergo surgery to repair the injury.
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Not only does Johnson intend to return next season, he plans to fulfill the rest of the three-year, $21MM deal he signed prior this spring. “I have two years on my deal and I intend to finish them out strong,” Johnson told Terez A. Paylor of the Kansas City Star (Twitter link). In 2017, Johnson is due a base salary of $4.75MM ($2MM of which is guaranteed), a roster bonus of $1MM, and a workout bonus of $250K. His cap charge is $7.75MM in 2017 before increasing to $9.75MM in 2018.
As such, the Chiefs could conceivably save as much as $4MM on next year’s cap by releasing Johnson with a post-June 1 designation. However, that scenario is unlikely, given that Kansas City is would still carry $3.75MM in dead money if they cut Johnson. Additionally, the 34-year-old Johnson is viewed as a leader of the Chiefs’ defense, and is still quite effective — Johnson has graded as the league’s No. 21 linebacker this season with a top-five rank for his coverage abilities, according to Pro Football Focus.
Chiefs coach Andy Reid, too, offered positive words on Johnson, and indicated that the veteran linebacker would return next season, as Paylor writes in a full article. “I want him around here — I don’t want him going anywhere,” Reid said. “I want him to hang around, do his rehab and get himself back to where he can play. But in the meantime, he can work on a little coaching there with some of our young guys.”
49ers Extend TE Vance McDonald
The 49ers announced tonight that they’ve signed tight end Vance McDonald to a five-year extension, locking him up through the 2021 campaign. The new deal is reportedly worth $35MM in total, including a $7MM signing bonus and $16MM in guarantees.
[RELATED: San Francisco 49ers Depth Chart]
McDonald, 26, has become one of the few reliable weapons in the San Francisco offense during his fourth season in the league, and he’s already exceeded most of his career-highs with four contests still left to play. Through 10 starts, McDonald has posted 24 receptions for 391 yards and four touchdowns, the latter of which makes him the 49ers’ leader in scores. He’s split snaps this season with Garrett Celek, as both tight ends have played exactly 425 offensive snaps.
As the season comes to a close, many clubs with extra cap space will look to lock up younger players and take some of the financial hit immediately. The 49ers certainly fit that bill, as the team ranks second in the NFL with roughly $43MM in 2016 cap room. Certainly, San Francisco will carry over some of that space into 2017, but the Niners are set next year too: they rank seventh in the league with more than $46MM in projected cap room next season.
McDonald becomes the third member of the 49ers’ 2013 draft class to earn an extension, as Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee notes (Twitter link) that defenders Quinton Dial and Tank Carradine have also scored new deals. 2013 first-round safety Eric Reid has also seen his contract somewhat amended, as San Francisco has already exercised its 2017 fifth-year option on Reid.
McDonald’s new $7MM annual average places him near the bottom of the second tier of tight end contracts, and puts him directly between Coby Fleener and Delanie Walker in per year salary. McDonald’s reported guarantee of $16MM would rank third among tight ends, which likely means that the figure refers to an injury-only — rather than a full — guarantee.
Adam Schefter and Adam Caplan of ESPN.com (Twitter link) were the first to report the five-year deal, its total value, and its guarantee. Caplan reported the signing bonus (Twitter link).