Author: Ely Allen

At this point, former No. 5 overall pick and primary starter for the last six years Tua Tagovailoa has been demoted, and his future in Miami is very much in doubt. The Dolphins have instead opted to see what rookie seventh-round pick Quinn Ewers can offer at position over the closing weeks of the season.

We’re only in the first year of the four-year, $212.4MM contract extension Tagovailoa signed before the start of the 2024 season. The Hawai’i-native was just two years removed from leading the NFL in yards per attempt and passer rating en route to a ninth-place finish in MVP voting and had just earned his first Pro Bowl selection after leading the league in passing yards. Things changed, however, as concussions suddenly became a major concern.

Tagovailoa became familiar with injuries early. Four weeks after getting his first opportunity to replace Ryan Fitzpatrick as the starter in Week 8 of his rookie season, Tagovailoa was sidelined for a game due to a finger injury. Over the next two years, some concerns about his durability arose as he missed eight games in that span due to some fractured ribs in 2021 and concussion issues in 2022. Looking back on the 2022 injuries, Tagovailoa would later tell the media that he considered retiring because of the concussions.

Instead, he came back and started all 17 games in 2023, showing that he could put together a full campaign good enough to land a multi-year, $50+MM-per-year deal. He got two games into his new contract before a third concussion placed him on injured reserve. After a four-game absence, Tagovailoa was able to return, and he, once again, found a way to impress by leading the league with a career-high 72.9 completion percentage.

This year has seen a regression, though. The loss of his star receiver, Tyreek Hill, certainly contributed to the struggles, but this year, Tagovailoa has shown limited mobility and declining decision-making. Tagovailoa has taken a career-high 30 sacks and thrown a career-high and league-leading 15 interceptions so far this year.

The decision to sit Tagovailoa has given the Dolphins a chance to see what they have in the young rookie out of Texas, but the struggles that led here have tied their hands a bit with their potential options to move on from Tagovailoa. As one AFC executive put it, according to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, “they are almost stuck with him.”

Trading the 27-year-old is clearly the team’s preferred option, but the market doesn’t seem eager to bid for Tagovailoa. At the moment, teams like the Jets, Browns, Vikings, Colts, Raiders, Cardinals, and Steelers could all be on the lookout for a new passer in 2026, per Fowler. However, Indianapolis and Las Vegas have some serviceable veterans that can bridge a gap as the draft and develop a young passer, and the Browns and Vikings have young passers under contract they may want to see more of before locking into a new option.

Furthermore, the Cardinals are looking at moving out of a similar situation of their own, and the Jets have five first-round picks over the next two drafts that could be a preferable option for finding a new franchise passer. Fowler points out, though, that the quarterback market is volatile and could easily turn favorable for Tagovailoa (and perhaps the Dolphins) within a year.

General interest aside, cost is a major factor, as well. Tagovailoa’s still new deal has $54MM of guaranteed money for the 2026 season with more conditional guarantees set in the future. In order to facilitate a trade, Miami may need to offer to cover a significant portion of the money owed to Tagovailoa in the future. Difficult as it may seem, Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated thinks it could be a sensible conclusion to this saga.

If there are no biters, cutting Tagovailoa could be painful. Designating him as a post-June 1 release would allow them to spread cap money over two years, but they’d be shouldered with $67.4MM in dead money in 2026, a significant increase over his current cap hit for that year. They’d be hit for an additional $31.8MM of dead cap on the books in 2027. Without a post-June 1 designation, cutting him would saddle them with $99.2MM in dead cap this year, in addition to a $42.8MM cap hit.

At that point, it may be best for the Dolphins to just retain Tagovailoa. If that’s the case, some believe Miami needs to bring in serious competition for him, as much to bring the best out of him as search for his replacement. Over the next two games, the Dolphins will see if Ewers fits that bill. They felt the rookie needed time to “get his body right after several injuries in college,” per Fowler, but with an entire offseason and 16 weeks of NFL play out of the way, Ewers should be able to put on a strong display.