Growing Certainty Jaxon Smith-Njigba Will Be First WR Drafted
There are a number of wide receivers with first round grades, including TCU’s Quentin Johnston, USC’s Jordan Addison, Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt, and Boston College’s Zay Flowers. All have their pluses and minuses and can bring different things to an NFL offense. But, for a number of reasons, Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba is starting to run away with the title of WR1 in the 2023 NFL Draft class. 
Smith-Njigba is a true slot receiver, spending almost 90% of his time at Ohio State on the inside. He makes up for a lack of size and top end speed with agility, body control, and strong hands. Despite being a Buckeye for the past three years, he only has one full season of production at the college level, after missing 10 games with a hamstring injury last year.
He benefitted in that full season from having first-round picks Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave surrounding him. Still, Smith-Njigba outperformed both players in 2021, with 95 receptions, to Wilson’s 70 and Olave’s 65, and 1,606 receiving yards, to Wilson’s 1,058 and Olave’s 936. He didn’t have as many receiving touchdowns as Wilson (12) or Olave (13), but he still managed to find the end zone nine times.
The Eagles, holding the 10th overall pick, have reportedly been doing some last-second research on wideouts, according to Tony Pauline of Pro Football Network, specifically doing homework on Smith-Njigba. The Jets are another team to watch here. New York would prefer to take a top offensive tackle prospect, but if none are available, it’s hard to see Smith-Njigba slipping past them at No. 13. The Cowboys have also shown some recent interest in the wide receivers of the draft, but at No. 26 overall, Smith-Njigba isn’t likely to be around.
Regardless of where he hears his name called, it’s becoming more and more apparent that Smith-Njigba is establishing himself as one of the best, if not the best, pass catching prospect in the draft. If Pauline is correct, Smith-Njigba could find himself catching passes from Jalen Hurts or Aaron Rodgers next September.
Draft Rumors: Stroud, Wilson, Carter, Kancey, Bears, Van Ness
When the Panthers traded up for the No.1 overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft, the betting odds for who would be selected swung from Alabama’s Bryce Young to Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud. As we have crept towards the pivotal day, Young has forced his way back into the favorite position. Questions about how the teams following Carolina will approach their picks have some believing in a potential slide for Stroud on Thursday. According to Tony Pauline of Pro Football Network, the current belief is that Stroud won’t make it past the Raiders at No. 7 overall.
While some believe that quarterbacks could be the focus of the first four picks, there are possibilities for each pick. The Panthers could choose Young, and there’s a chance the Texans will go pass rusher. Arizona likely won’t take a passer after paying Kyler Murray, and the Colts have Kentucky quarterback Will Levis as an option opposite Stroud. The Seahawks and Lions follow them, but both have veteran quarterbacks coming off of strong seasons.
That brings us to the Raiders. Even after Las Vegas brought in Jimmy Garoppolo, rumors have claimed that the team will still look into drafting a passer with their top pick. If Stroud somehow pinballs his way past the first six picks, it would be extremely difficult for the Raiders to pass him up.
Here are a few other rumors as we close in on Draft Day:
- As we mentioned above, if the Texans pass on quarterback, they could choose a pass rusher with the second-overall pick. Many believe Texas Tech defensive end Tyree Wilson could be that selection, but according to Pauline, Houston has some problems with his medicals. If Wilson is not their selection as a pass rusher, Alabama’s Will Anderson would likely be the other option.
- There has been some reported certainty that Georgia defensive lineman Jalen Carter will be the Seahawks choice at No. 5 overall. According to Pauline, that certainty is coming from more external sources than internal. Reportedly, Seattle has some hesitancy about handing over the $30MM of guarantees that Carter would get in that draft slot. We’ll have to wait and see if that hesitancy wins out.
- One name that continues to rise up draft boards is that of Pittsburgh defensive tackle Calijah Kancey. Despite the lack of ideal size, at 6-foot-1, 281 pounds, Kancey has convinced many that he is a lock to be selected on Day 1, according to Pauline. The Saints, in particular, are a team that have really done their due diligence on Kancey. They could feel really good about nabbing a certain first-round talent with the 29th pick of the draft.
- According to Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune, the Bears could be looking to add a tight end in a year that is incredibly deep at the position. Chicago won’t likely use a top ten pick on Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer or Utah’s Dalton Kincaid, but thanks to the Roquan Smith-trade, the team has two second-round picks and may use them on such prospects as Georgia’s Darnell Washington, South Dakota State’s Tucker Kraft, or Iowa’s Sam LaPorta.
- Speaking of Iowa, a recent mock draft by Pro Football Network’s Adam Caplan slotted Iowa pass rusher Lukas Van Ness as a top ten pick. Caplan explains that he’s spoken with several executives that believe Van Ness won’t make it past the Eagles at No. 10 overall. Philadelphia had been looking into pass rushers in free agency with an aging Brandon Graham, and Van Ness may be the answer.
Draft Rumors: Skoronski, Young, Robinson
We spoke a bit about Northwestern offensive tackle Peter Skoronski‘s size when he declared for the draft back in April, thinking that while some may question his lack of size as a tackle, he would still follow his former college teammate Rashawn Slater in remaining at the tackle position. According to Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated, that’s no longer the case.
Breer says that, while he too initially thought a few teams would write Skoronski off as a guard, he’s finding that, now, few teams see him at tackle. At the NFL scouting combine, Skoronski measured at 6-foot-4, 313 pounds with an arm length of 32.25 inches. Comparatively, Slater measured at 6-foot-4, 304 pounds with an arm length of 33 inches in 2021.
Regardless of his position, Skoronski is regarded as one of maybe 12-13 players who “carry a true first-round grade” in the draft, according to Adam Caplan of Pro Football Network. While anything could happen, this means that no one sees a possibility where Skoronski falls to Day 2 of the draft next week.
Here are a few other rumors leading up to the 2023 NFL Draft:
- We’ve heard comments about Alabama quarterback Bryce Young‘s size being a concern as he makes the transition to the NFL. A recent report by Joe Person of The Athletic seems to confirm that his height is not considered the issue, his weight is. Young weighed in at the combine at a surprising 204 pounds, just three pounds shy of Kyler Murray‘s combine weight. If he ends up going No. 1 overall, like many expect, it sounds like the Panthers have a plan in place to put some meat on his bones.
- Many are under the impression that, after just severing their connections to their last first-round running back, Ezekiel Elliott, there is no way that the Cowboys would go right back and take Texas running back Bijan Robinson in the first round this year. Well, according to Kevin Patra of NFL.com, the team remains open to the possibility. Dallas’s executive vice president, Stephen Jones, emphasized that Robinson is almost certainly going on Day 1 of the draft and “you never know” if it’ll be the Cowboys who select him. With Tony Pollard coming off injury, the team may need a strong RB2 to help carry the load.
- The Buccaneers are another team to keep an eye on for Robinson after he visited Tampa Bay recently, something he mentioned during an appearance on the Dan Patrick Show. With the departure of Leonard Fournette to free agency, the Buccaneers return last year’s third-round pick Rachaad White, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, and Patrick Laird from last year’s rushing offense that ranked last in the NFL. They added Chase Edmonds in the offseason, but a top prospect like Robinson could be really valuable to Tampa Bay’s offense.
Staff Notes: Eagles, Arians, Evero, Panthers
The Eagles officially announced their coaching updates heading into the 2023 NFL season on Twitter today, revealing some updates to their completely made-over staff that we were previously unaware of.
On the offensive side of the ball, pass game coordinator Kevin Patullo received a promotion, adding the moniker of associate head coach to his title. Also, beneath the head coach, the team has hired Tyler Yelk to serve as assistant to the head coach.
On the defensive side of the ball, a couple of others received promotions. Formerly the assistant defensive backs coach, D.K. McDonald has taken over the position room as the new defensive backs coach. Filling McDonald’s previous role of assistant defensive backs coach will be Taver Johnson, who has experience in the NFL but most recently served as defensive pass game coordinator and safeties coach at Eastern Michigan. Tyler Scudder has become the team’s assistant linebackers coach after serving as a defensive assistant previously. Lastly, Philadelphia has hired Mike Diangelo in the role of defensive quality control.
Here are a few more updates in the coaching ranks of the NFL:
- The Buccaneers made an addition to their staff this week, as well, according to Greg Auman of FOX Sports. Tampa Bay brought Sarah Evans into the coaches office to serve in the role of senior manager of coaching operations. She’s been with the team since 2020 in roles concerning player relations and community efforts.
- In another update from Tampa Bay, former head coach Bruce Arians will reportedly be taking another step back in 2023, according to Mike Florio of NBC Sports. Last year, he stepped down from head coach to senior advisor to the general manager. This year, he remains in that role, and has reportedly still been helpful leading up the draft but hasn’t been nearly as involved as he was last year.
- Many have drooled over the elite names joining the Panthers‘ coaching staff this offseason, lauding owner David Tepper on his financial commitment to the staff. Thanks to Joe Person of The Athletic, we have some evidence of that. New defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero will reportedly move into the top ten highest-paid defensive coordinators in the NFL with a three-year contract worth about $9.3MM.
- In the Carolina front office, the Panthers’ vice president of football operations, Steven Drummond, has resigned after over 17 years with the organization, according to Person.
Bills Extend K Tyler Bass
The Bills will avoid playing kicker Tyler Bass on a contract year in 2024 after reportedly reaching an agreement on a four-year extension worth up to $21MM, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network. Bass was three years into his rookie contract after getting drafted in the sixth round of the 2020 NFL Draft. 
Bass took over for Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo after Koo graduated from Georgia Southern to the NFL in 2017. After making 54 of 68 field goal attempts and converting 108 of 109 extra point attempts in three years, Bass was selected by the Bills in 2020 to compete with incumbent kicker Stephen Hauschka, who had missed six field goals in each of the previous two seasons and two extra points in 2019. Bass beat out the veteran for kicking duties in training camp.
Since taking over the kicking job for the Bills, Bass has converted 85.6-percent of his field goals attempts, making 83 out of 97 tries. He’s shown he has the big-leg ability that’s required to get paid as a kicker in the NFL these days. He’s also only missed four extra point attempts for a high-powered offense that has forced him to attempt 160.
If the $21MM reported by Rapoport is the face value of the contract, then Bass’s new deal poses him as the fourth-highest paid kicker in the NFL (per year), just under Ravens kicker Justin Tucker, Colts kicker Matt Gay, and Seahawks kicker Jason Myers. The “up to” included in the tweet implies that incentives may be involved, which may rank him slightly lower, but the reported $12.3MM guaranteed is the second-highest guaranteed amount for a current kicker, trailing only Tucker.
It’s a good deal for both sides as Bass gets his payday and the Bills lockdown a reliable, young kicker through the 2027 season. It’s rare to find dependability in a kicker, and the Bills have paid up in order to secure theirs for years to come.
Minor NFL Transactions: 4/20/23
Today’s only minor move:
New York Jets
- Signed RFA tender: DE Bryce Huff
Initially an undrafted pass rusher out of Memphis, Huff will have another year in New York to try and establish a role on the Jets defense. Huff made his presence known after making the 53-man roster as a rookie in 2020 and working himself into the rotation at defensive end. He continued to work hard, earning six starts to open 2021 before a back injury landed him on the inactive list for seven weeks. Since the injury, Huff’s role has been scaled back a bit, but he continues to produce, racking up 3.5 sacks in limited time last year. He’ll be back for Gang Green in 2023 to continue to contribute on defense and special teams.
Tua Tagovailoa Considered Retirement After Concussions
In a recent press conference, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa gave a candid response to a question asking whether or not he had considered “walking away” after a 2022 season in which he suffered multiple concussions. 
“Yeah, I think I considered it, you know, for a time,” Tagovailoa said in reply. “Having sat down with my family, having sat down with my wife and having those kinds of conversations — but really, it would be hard for me to walk away from this game with how old I am, with my son. I always dreamed of playing as long as I could to where my son knew exactly what he was watching his dad do. It’s my health, it’s my body, and I feel like this is what’s best for me and my family. I mean, I love the game of football. If I didn’t, I would’ve quit a long time ago.”
Tagovailoa suffered three concussions during the 2022 season, resulting in him missing five games, including Miami’s first playoff game since 2016. This marked the third consecutive season to start his career where he hasn’t been able to play every game because of injury. He dealt with a jammed thumb and fractured ribs in his first two seasons. The concussions this year were the first he’d had diagnosed since college, but the sheer frequency of the injury this year caused him to deliberate.
The 25-year-old had undergone several medical evaluations since his most recent concussion and had decided that he couldn’t overlook what the medical information told him. Luckily, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, the doctors gave Tagovailoa good news, stating that “no medical evidence proves” that concussions are more likely eight to twelve months after suffering concussions (no matter how many).
So, Tagovailoa will return for his fourth year in the NFL, and should, at the very least, be back for a fifth, after the Dolphins picked up his fifth-year option. In 2023, he will look to build off of last year, easily his most productive season. Miami retained most of the running backs room, and even though Tagovailoa lost tight end Mike Gesicki to New England in free agency, the young passer will have Chosen Anderson and Braxton Berrios as additional weapons in 2023.
Tagovailoa is expected to return and, according to medical opinion, should not be any more likely to suffer head injuries due to his history with concussions. He’s even practiced how best to fall in order to avoid such injuries.
Contract Details: Hurts, Robinson, Ward, Perryman, Anderson
Here are some details on deals signed recently around the NFL:
- Jalen Hurts, QB (Eagles): Five years, $255MM. We had received some broad numbers from the deal, and some details still elude us, but ESPN’s Adam Schefter provided some cap numbers recently. Hurts will represent a $6.15MM cap hit in 2023, $13.56MM in 2024, $21.77MM in 2025, and $31.77MM in 2026.
- Allen Robinson, WR (Steelers): Three years, $46.5MM. We covered some details, like how the Rams will pay most of Robinson’s 2023 salary in a nearly two-to-one split. According to Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com, the Rams will additionally take on $21.45MM of dead money for Robinson moving forward, pushing them up to about $74MM of dead cap in 2023.
- Jimmie Ward, S (Texans): Two years, $13MM. The deal, according to Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2, has a guaranteed amount of $8.5MM consisting of a $4MM signing bonus, Ward’s 2023 base salary of $2.5MM, and $2MM of his 2024 base salary (worth $5.5MM total). Ward will receive a per game active roster bonus of $29,411 for a potential season total of $500,000. The contract also includes an annual playing time incentive. If Ward plays 60% of the team’s defensive snaps, he’ll receive an additional $250,000. He’ll get two more $250,000 bonuses for reaching both the 70% and 80% snap share totals, as well.
- Denzel Perryman, LB (Texans): One year, $2.6MM. We were aware that Perryman could push the value of his deal to $3.5MM with incentives, but thanks to Wilson, we now know how he can do that. The additional $900,000 is based on playing time. Perryman can earn $300,000 bonuses for reaching each of the 60%, 70% and 80% thresholds of defensive snap shares for the Texans.
- Eric Rowe, S (Panthers): One year, $1.32MM. The deal, according to Wilson, has a guaranteed amount of $852,500 consisting of a $152,500 signing bonus and $700,000 of Rowe’s base salary (worth a total of $1.17MM).
- Kris Boyd, CB (Cardinals): One year, $1.23MM. The contract, according to Wilson, has a signing bonus of $152,500 and a base salary of $1.08MM.
- Dante Pettis, WR (Bears): One year, $1.23MM. The deal, according to Wilson, includes a signing bonus of $152,500 and a base salary of $1.08MM.
- Troy Reeder, LB (Vikings): One year, $1.23MM. The contract, according to Wilson, has a guaranteed amount of $100,000 consisting partially of a $25,000 signing bonus. Reeder’s base salary will be $1.08MM, and he can receive an additional workout bonus $25,000 and a roster bonus of $102,500 if he’s active Week 1. The deal includes a per game active roster bonus of $6,029 for a potential season total of $102,500.
- Drew Sample, TE (Bengals): One year, $1.23MM. The contract, according to Wilson, has a signing bonus of $52,500 and a base salary of $1.08MM. Sample will also receive a roster bonus of $75,000 and a workout bonus of $25,000.
- Armon Watts, DT (Steelers): One year, $1.23MM. The contract, according to Wilson, has a signing bonus of $152,500 and a base salary of $1.08MM.
- Elijah Wilkinson, OL (Cardinals): One year, $1.23MM. The deal, according to Wilson, has a guaranteed amount of $1.09MM consisting of a $152,500 signing bonus and $940,000 of Wilkinson’s base salary (worth a total of $1.08MM).
- Khadarel Hodge, WR (Falcons): One year, $1.2MM. The contract, according to Wilson, has a base salary of $1.08 and a roster bonus of $120,000 if he is active for Atlanta’s first game of the season. The deal also includes a per game active roster bonus of $7,500 for a potential season total of $127,500.
- Chosen Anderson, WR (Dolphins): One year, $1.17MM. The deal, according to Wilson, includes a signing bonus of $152,500.
- John Penisini, DL (Panthers): One year, $940,000, according to Wilson.
- Kevin Jarvis, OL (Bills): One year, $750,000, according to Wilson.
Minor NFL Transactions: 4/19/23
Here are the minor moves for today from around the league:
Baltimore Ravens
- Re-signed: WR Tarik Black
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Signed ERFA tender: CB Dee Delaney
Delaney, an undrafted free agent out of Miami (FL) in 2018, has appeared in all but two games for the Buccaneers since signing with the team in 2021, starting three. With Logan Ryan and Sean Murphy-Bunting departing in free agency, bringing Delaney back adds some much-needed experienced depth in the cornerbacks room. Delaney is a strong contributor on special teams, as well.
NFL Draft Prospect Profile: TCU WR Quentin Johnston
We all know the recent history of drafting TCU wide receivers, especially in the first round. Since 2000, only Jeremy Kerley has surpassed 600 yards receiving in a season, while former first round picks Josh Doctson and Jalen Reagor both failed to finish out their rookie contracts with the teams that drafted them. Doctson was released just before his fourth year in the league, while Reagor was traded around the same time last year. The latest Horned Frog to attempt to erase the dreadful history of receivers out of Fort Worth is junior wideout Quentin Johnston. 
Johnston was a consensus four-star wide receiver out of Temple High School (Texas) in the Class of 2020. After initially committing to Texas before his senior year, Johnston would eventually flip to TCU after the dismissal of Longhorns wide receivers coach Drew Mehringer. With Reagor leaving for the NFL, a spot at the top of the depth chart was wide open for the taking.
Johnston earned a starting role in Fort Worth immediately as a freshman, leading the team with 487 receiving yards and earning honorable mention All-Big 12 honors. As a sophomore, he would earn first-team All-Big 12 honors after leading the team in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Then, this past year, Johnston lead the Horned Frogs in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns en route to his second straight year on the All-Big 12 first team. Over his three-year career at TCU, Johnston totaled 115 catches for 2,190 yards and 14 touchdowns.
Among the other top receiver prospects, Johnston reigns as the biggest of the bunch, establishing himself physically as a potential WR1. His size obviously assists him, with length and strength inherent in his frame, but it doesn’t keep him from being as agile as the smaller receivers in the draft. Johnston used his burst and acceleration to rank second in the nation in yards after catch per reception. His combination of size and elusiveness make him one of the tougher receivers to bring down after the catch. Before the catch, he has great awareness to track the ball and use his leaping ability and body control to make grabs.
The biggest problem showing up on Johnston’s film is drops. Whether it’s a lack of confidence in his hands that results in inconsistent body-catching or a lack of focus as he fails to secure the ball before turning his eyes upfield to run, drops plagued Johnston in 2022. Luckily, drops have been a bit of an issue for the rest of the receivers expected to be first-rounders, as well, making his eight drops hurt a little less. Boston College’s Zay Flowers surpassed Johnston with nine drops of his own this year. Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba dropped six passes in his only full season of play. USC’s Jordan Addison only had two this year but had 21 during his two years at Pittsburgh. Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt may be the exception of the group, with only eight drops in his collegiate career, but five of those came in 2022.
Looking past the drops, Johnston has only a few other things to work on. Tight hips and a lack of variety at TCU mean that he has some work to do on route-running. Also, despite his size, Johnston didn’t have the best track record with contested catches.
Plenty of teams have done their homework on Johnston. So far, in the pre-draft process, Johnston has met with or planned to meet with the Giants, Ravens, Chiefs, Cowboys, Cardinals, Falcons, Vikings, Jaguars, and Titans. Basically, any team looking to add some size to their receiving corps has done some research on Johnston.
The 21-year-old makes a lot of sense for that purpose. The disastrous history of TCU wideouts going pro and Johnston’s drops will be overlooked fairly easily. Not only will teams overlook them because of his size but because he uses his athleticism to blend that size congruously with speed and strength. He’s almost certain to hear his name on Day 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft later this month, but at what point in the night he is selected has yet to be determined.