Sunday Roundup: T. Johnson, Long, 49ers
We recently heard the the Rams are considering using the transition tag on cornerback Trumaine Johnson, who is eligible for unrestricted free agency in just over two weeks. Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com discusses why a team would consider the transition tag–which does not net a team any compensation when the tagged player signs elsewhere–when a slightly more expensive franchise tag would virtually assure the team of retaining the tagged player. As Florio writes, “Some may be doing it just to see what the player’s value is, knowing that if it’s too high they’ll let him walk. Others possibly don’t want the franchise tender to lay the foundation for a long-term deal.”
Florio, citing a league source, says that if Johnson does get the transition tag, he will not sign the transition tender. Instead, he will actively seek an offer sheet from another team, just as Alex Mack did in 2014 and Charles Clay did last season.
Now let’s take a look at some more notes from around the league:
- Sheil Kapadia of ESPN.com takes a look at whether the Seahawks will pursue recently-released DE Chris Long, who has 8.5 sacks in 15 career games against Seattle as a member of the division-rival Rams. Long’s age and injury history suggest that he’s probably in line for a relatively modest deal, and given that the Seahawks are always on the lookout for pass rushing help, Kapadia suggests that Long could be a fit.
- Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com says the 49ers‘ No. 1 priority this offseason is resolving the Colin Kaepernick dilemma, and he sets forth four ways in which the team could find that resolution. Right now, indications are that Kaepernick would like to resume his career elsewhere, and if San Francisco wants to move on as well, the 49ers can give Kaepernick permission to seek a trade and work out a restructured contract with another team before a trade is finalized. Alternatively, the two sides could work out a settlement in which the team releases him and is not on the hook for the $11.9MM he is owed in 2016.
- The Jaguars do not plan on filling the vacancy that was left when they promoted Todd Wash from defensive line coach to defensive coordinator, according to Ryan O’Halloran of The Florida Times-Union. Instead, Wash will continue to coach the team’s defensive lineman, and head coach Gus Bradley downplayed any notion that his first-time coordinator would be stretched too thin.
- D. Orlando Ledbetter of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution provides his ranking of the Falcons‘ top 12 unrestricted free agents. Given that O’Brien Schofield tops the list, it is clear that the Falcons’ pending free agents are comprised primarily of role players and reserves.
- Jesse James, selected in the fifth round of last year’s draft, will get the first chance to replace the recently-retired Heath Miller as the Steelers‘ No. 1 tight end, as Mark Kaboly of The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. After being inactive for the first eight games of the regular season, James saw limited action in the next ten, including the playoffs. The Steelers will likely add a tight end in free agency to complement James and high-upside practice squad player Xavier Grimble, even though the free agent class of tight ends is fairly weak. Ben Watson, who met with Pittsburgh during training camp a few years ago, is perhaps the best fit for the Steelers.
Latest On Panthers, Charles Johnson
Panthers DE Charles Johnson is 29, is coming off an injury-plagued 2015 season, and has not posted a double-digit sack total since 2013. He is also entering the final year of a six-year, $76MM contract he signed in 2011, and he is scheduled to count $15MM against the salary cap in 2016. Given the emergence of Kawann Short–whose contract situation must be addressed in the near future–and Kony Ealy, Carolina could release Johnson, saving a much-needed $11MM in cap space in the process, and replace him with a cheaper alternative.
[RELATED: Jared Allen Announces Retirement]
But the $15MM cap number is just unpalatable, and as Joseph Person and Jonathan Jones of The Charlotte Observer report, Johnson will have to agree to restructure his contract and take less money or risk being cut. Person and Jones point out, though, that GM Dave Gettleman has a special affinity for pass rushers, and Johnson may find that whatever the Panthers ask him to take could still be more than what he could get on the open market.
If the two sides do end up parting ways, Jones looks at five pass rushers who could be available in the draft (the 2016 draft class has a great deal of pass rushing depth, which could make the decision to release Johnson a little easier). Although elite prospects like Joey Bosa and DeForest Buckner will certainly be gone before the Panthers’ No. 30 overall pick rolls around, players like Oklahoma State’s Emmanuel Ogbah, Michigan State’s Shilique Calhoun, and Clemson’s Kevin Dodd are worthy early-round targets.
Person and Jones also examine five potential replacements for Johnson that could be available in free agency, a group that is headlined by Jason Pierre-Paul, who was selected by the Giants when Gettleman was on New York’s staff. The Giants will reportedly attempt to re-sign JPP, but they will not put the franchise tag on him or sign him to a mega-deal, so he could end up testing the free agent waters. He will likely sign an incentive-laden deal with someone, but Person and Jones express skepticism that Carolina will be the team to give him such a contract.
Ultimately, the Panthers may be better off releasing Johnson, using some of the $11MM saved to sign a more under-the-radar free agent like William Hayes, and capitalizing on the draft’s pass rushing depth to pick up a high-upside rookie in the middle rounds. They could then put the rest of that cap space–along with the $8.5MM of room that was created when Jared Allen announced his retirement–towards the franchise tag for cornerback Josh Norman. Johnson, if he is released, should have little trouble finding a new team on the lookout for pass rushing help–which is basically every team in the league–especially since he would not count against his new club’s compensatory pick formula.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
East Notes: Cousins, Carroll, Soliai
It is difficult to imagine Kirk Cousins playing anywhere besides Washington next season, either under the franchise tag or under a lucrative, long-term deal. The most recent report regarding contract negotiations between the two parties suggested that the prospect of Cousins and Washington striking a multi-year deal was “not good,” although the application of the franchise tag always seems to invigorate stalled contract talks.
But even if Cousins ultimately plays out the 2016 season under the tag, it may not handicap Washington that much in the short-term. As John Keim of ESPN.com observes, Washington’s 2016 cap number already includes Robert Griffin III‘s $16.15MM option, and the team is almost certainly going to cut Griffin in the near future. As such, putting the franchise tag on Cousins really only adds an extra $4MM or so to the team’s cap commitment, as the tag value for quarterbacks is projected to be around $20MM. Certainly Washington would rather have an extra $4MM to spend, particularly since it does not have a ton of cap room to begin with–plus, signing Cousins to a long-term deal might put his first-year cap hit under $10MM, thus creating even more space–but for 2016, at least, the tag might not be as crippling as it otherwise could be.
Now let’s take a look at some more notes from the league’s east divisions:
- Mark Eckel of LehighValleyLive.com takes a look at how the Eagles will address their secondary this offseason, a conversation that necessarily begins with cornerback Nolan Carroll, who is set to become an unrestricted free agent. Carroll is a solid player, but the price to keep him should not be prohibitive, especially since he ended the season on IR after breaking his ankle in the team’s Thanksgiving contest against Detroit. If Carroll is retained, Philadelphia could shift Eric Rowe from cornerback to safety, his more natural position, to replace Walter Thurmond, who is likely to depart in free agency.
- The Falcons will release Paul Soliai on or after March 9, and the 32-year-old defensive tackle would apparently like to return to the Dolphins, according to Armando Salguero of The Miami Herald (via Twitter). Soliai spent the first seven seasons of his career with Miami before signing with Atlanta prior to the 2014 campaign, and although his 2015 performance was not up to his usual standards, he could still be a valuable member of either a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme.
- The Jets will make a concerted effort to address the tight end position in free agency and/or the draft, per Rich Cimini of ESPNNewYork.com. The team needs a tight end who can challenge a defense in the middle of the field, and although this year’s free agent class of tight ends is uninspiring–Antonio Gates will likely stay in San Diego, leaving players like Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen at the top of the market–but Arkansas’ Hunter Harvey, widely regarded as the best TE in the draft, should be available when Gang Green makes its first selection in this year’s draft.
- Patriots RB Dion Lewis, who was a catalyst of the team’s offense prior to tearing his ACL on November 8, is making good progress in his recovery and should be available for the start of the regular season, as Mike Reiss of ESPNBoston.com reports.
Offseason Outlook: Oakland Raiders
Pending free agents:
- Lorenzo Alexander, LB
- Larry Asante, S
- Denico Autry, DE (ERFA)
- Khalif Barnes, T
- Tony Bergstrom, C
- Thomas Gafford, LS
- Shelby Harris, DE (ERFA)
- Andre Holmes, WR
- Gabe Holmes, TE (ERFA)
- Marquette King, P
- Benson Mayowa, DE (RFA)
- Taylor Mays, S
- Matt McCants, T (RFA)
- Tevin McDonald, S (ERFA)
- Matt McGloin, QB (RFA)
- Donald Penn, T
- Seth Roberts, WR (ERFA)
- Jeremy Ross, WR (RFA)
- Aldon Smith, DE/OLB
- Rod Streater, WR
- Neiko Thorpe, S (RFA)
- Korey Toomer, LB (ERFA)
- J’Marcus Webb, T
Top 15 cap hits for 2016:
- Michael Crabtree, WR: $11,000,000
- Rodney Hudson, C: $7,700,000
- Dan Williams, DT: $7,500,000
- Austin Howard, T: $5,900,000
- Curtis Lofton, ILB: $5,500,000
- Amari Cooper, WR: $5,150,709
- Khalil Mack, DE/OLB: $5,093,728
- Sebastian Janikowski, K: $3,960,000
- Marcel Reece, RB: $3,530,839
- D.J. Hayden, CB: $3,284,813
- Malcolm Smith, OLB: $3,000,000
- Lee Smith, TE: $2,750,000
- Jamize Olawale, FB: $2,190,000
- Roy Helu, RB: $2,000,000
- Mychal Rivera, TE: $1,673,213
Notable coaching/front office moves:
- None.
Draft:
- No. 14 overall pick
- Acquired fifth-round pick from Cowboys in deal for WR Brice Butler.
- Acquired sixth-round pick from Colts in deal for LB Sio Moore.
- Owe sixth-round pick to Cowboys in deal for WR Brice Butler.
Other:
- Current projected cap room (via Over the Cap): $71.93MM
- Must exercise or decline fifth-year option for 2017 for CB D.J. Hayden.
- Team approved for L.A. relocation, but Rams, Chargers given first dibs.
- Team to remain in Oakland for 2016 season, but exploring relocation options, including Las Vegas, San Antonio.
- Already released and re-signed S Nate Allen.
- S Charles Woodson and DE Justin Tuck both retired.
Overview:
After appearing in Super Bowl XXXVII at the end of the 2002 season, the Raiders have failed to finish above .500 even once. Their play during that time has ranged from decidedly mediocre to outright terrible, but in 2015, Raiders fans may have finally glimpsed a light at the end of their tunnel. Under new head coach Jack Del Rio, the team finished just 7-9, but there are some reasons for hope.
Second-year quarterback Derek Carr showed that he might well be the team’s long-awaited answer under center, as he completed over 61% of his passes for nearly 4,000 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, posting a 91.1 rating in the process. He immediately established a rapport with rookie wideout Amari Cooper, who became the first Oakland wide receiver to top 1,000 yards since Randy Moss did it in 2005. Cooper, Carr, and third-year running back Latavius Murray were all named to the Pro Bowl, giving the Raiders a young and talented trio at the skill positions. That’s not to mention young tight end Clive Walford, who showed promise in his rookie campaign, and receiver Michael Crabtree, who was brought in on a modest one-year contract but who signed a four-year, $35MM extension in December.
On the defensive side of the ball, Khalil Mack became a full-fledged superstar, picking up 15 sacks and grading out as the best edge defender in the league, per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required). PFF suggested that Mack was even better against the run than he was against the pass, and his efforts earned him a First-Team All-Pro nod — at two separate positions (defensive end and outside linebacker).
However, the defense as a whole finished in the middle of the pack, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, as did the offense, so there is room for improvement on both sides of the ball. Luckily for the Raiders, they have a ton of cap room with which to address their concerns, and GM Reggie McKenzie, who was on the hot seat not long ago, has now orchestrated two consecutive drafts that have paid immediate dividends. With continuity in the coaching staff, a GM who seems to have found his footing, and a roster stocked with a fair amount of young talent, the Raiders could compete for a playoff spot in 2016.
Key Free Agents:
Not only are the Raiders flush with cap space, but they are also fortunate in that they do not have many of their own free agents that they absolutely need to re-sign. Interestingly enough, the most important player for the club to keep under contract this year might be its punter, Marquette King.
King has established himself as one of the best punters in the league, and it would not be unreasonable for him to look at Sam Koch‘s recent five-year, $18.75MM extension as a starting point in contract negotiations. I would think a five-year deal worth around $20MM in total value would make sense for King, and while such a contract would hardly make a dent on the Raiders’ available cap room, it would ensure that the team keeps one of its most underrated weapons under club control for the foreseeable future. The franchise tag may also be in play here.
The Raiders will probably also want to bring back left tackle Donald Penn. Penn might not be elite, but he’s squarely in the second tier of the league’s left tackles, and he finished the 2015 season as the NFL’s 11th-best lineman out of 77 eligible players, per PFF.
He is also eminently dependable, having started all 16 games every season since 2008. The nine-year veteran spent the first seven seasons of his career with Tampa Bay before coming to terms with Oakland on a modest two-year pact prior to the 2014 season, a deal that ultimately earned him a little over $10MM. He has stated that he wants to retire a Raider, and in fact expressed some frustration earlier this month that the team had not yet contacted him about a new contract.
Although the Raiders are taking their time when it comes to discussing an extension for Penn, there aren’t many tackles on the free agent market that would represent a clear upgrade. Russell Okung could be an intriguing option, but his injury history is troubling and his name-recognition value has exceeded his on-field production in recent seasons (although he has been a strong pass blocker when healthy). The Bills’ Cordy Glenn is a prime candidate for the franchise tag, which would effectively take him off the market, and outside of Kelechi Osemele, whose experience at left tackle is limited, there is no one else that would be a better fit for the Raiders than Penn.
The top two tackle prospects in the draft, Laremy Tunsil and Ronnie Stanley, will likely be off the board by the time the Raiders’ No. 14 selection rolls around, though Michigan State’s Jack Conklin may still be available. But given that the Raiders have more pressing needs on the defensive side of the ball—particularly in the secondary—I would expect the Raiders and Penn to work something out within the next couple of weeks, and a two- or three-year deal with an average annual value of roughly $7MM would be a reasonable agreement for both parties.
Wideouts Andre Holmes and Rod Streater have both shown flashes at various times in their Oakland careers, but at this point it appears as though the Raiders are prepared to move on without them. The team is probably more than prepared to part ways with offensive lineman J’Marcus Webb as well. Menelik Watson and Austin Howard will compete for the starting right tackle spot, and last year’s fourth-round draft pick, Jon Feliciano, could fit in at right guard. While the team would probably not be averse to bringing back Khalif Barnes for some depth, Webb has never been an especially capable NFL player and will probably struggle to stick on anyone’s roster next season.
Given the Raiders’ deficiencies in the secondary, which have been compounded by the retirement of surefire Hall-of-Famer Charles Woodson, the team will likely try to retain at least one of Taylor Mays and Larry Asante. Oakland will also hope for a bounce-back year from Nate Allen, whom they recently released and re-signed to a more team-friendly deal. Allen had his 2015 season cut short by a torn MCL and ultimately appeared in only five games in his first year in silver-and-black.
The Raiders gave Aldon Smith a second chance when he was released by the 49ers in August, and he showed glimpses of his fearsome pass rush ability, racking up 3.5 sacks in nine games with Oakland. However, he was hit with a one-year suspension in November, meaning that he can’t even be around the Raiders’ facility until next November. Nonetheless, the Raiders knew when they signed Smith that he would be a long-term project, and both sides have shown an express interest in continuing their relationship. I foresee Smith and the Raiders ultimately striking an incentive-laden deal at some point in the offseason, and although Smith may not contribute much if and when he returns to the field in 2016, the 2017 Raiders could feature Smith and Mack as bookend pass rushers, a prospect that would certainly keep opposing quarterbacks up at night.
Positions Of Need:
As noted above, the Raiders are in dire need of secondary help, both at cornerback and at safety. 2013 first-round draft pick D.J. Hayden has been a disaster, and Mays and Asante are average at best. Even at full health, Allen has never been a consistent performer, and although cornerback David Amerson was a pleasant surprise after being claimed on waivers last September, he is just one year removed from being rated as the worst cornerback in the league per PFF’s metrics. McKenzie will certainly have his work cut out for him as he tries to turn around one of the NFL’s worst pass defenses.
Luckily, free agency offers a number of potential solutions in that regard. At the safety position, the market is headlined by Eric Weddle, Eric Berry, Reggie Nelson, Tashaun Gipson, and George Iloka, and the recently-released William Moore would also be an interesting possibility to replace the veteran leadership void left by Woodson. Although Berry may re-sign with Kansas City or get the franchise tag before hitting the market, Weddle will almost certainly be available, and it currently appears as though Nelson and Gipson will both test the free agent waters as well.
This year’s free agent cornerback class is also quite deep. The Raiders could choose from a list of names that includes Sean Smith, Janoris Jenkins, Prince Amukamara, Greg Toler, Leon Hall, Casey Heyward, and Trumaine Johnson. Josh Norman could also theoretically be available, but Carolina is likely to hit him with the franchise tag. Oakland would be in pretty good shape if it could come away with at least two of the above-named defensive backs, and if the Raiders supplement those signings with a couple of second-tier options—names like James Ihedigbo and Shareece Wright jump immediately to mind—as well as a draft selection or two, they could see a marked improvement.
It is worth noting that the Raiders were in pursuit of a number of big-ticket free agents last year, but they failed to land most of their high-priced targets. Given that they now appear to be a team on the rise, the Raiders may be a more attractive option to some of the more noteworthy players on the market this time around.
As far as the draft is concerned, top cornerback prospects Jalen Ramsey and Vernon Hargreaves will likely not fall to Oakland, but Clemson’s Mackensie Alexander would be a quality option. At safety, Miles Killebrew and Jeremy Cash are potential Day 2 selections, but neither is particularly strong in coverage, and Oakland would probably be better-served addressing its safety needs in free agency this year.
While the offensive line is not a pressing issue at the moment—assuming, of course, the Raiders re-sign Penn—the Raiders would do well to bring in a young lineman or two (ESPN’s Mel Kiper, in fact, has mocked Conklin to the Raiders in his first mock draft). If Penn is not retained, then the O-line suddenly becomes a cause for concern and would need to be meaningfully addressed in the draft, free agency, or both. We touched on some of the team’s options for offensive linemen above, and it’s also worth pointing out that, if Penn does not return, former Giant Will Beatty may provide similar services at a similar (or lesser) rate.
The Raiders could also use help at inside linebacker, as Curtis Lofton was a disappointment in his first season with the club. Although it’s probably not enough of a need to use a first-round pick on a linebacker, a player like Ohio State’s Joshua Perry is worth keeping an eye on during the second day of the draft, especially since this year’s crop of free agent linebackers is relatively weak (plus, 2015 fifth-rounder Neiron Ball could end up seeing more playing time, especially if he can put together a strong offseason).
It might also behoove the club to find a running back in the middle rounds of the draft or free agency to keep Murray fresh. An ESPN report from a few days ago indicated that Oakland would do just that.
Possible Cap Casualties:
Although the Raiders do not need to shed any salary in order to be active in free agency, to retain their own free agents, and to conduct other offseason business, that doesn’t mean that they should avoid making cuts or purusing restructures where necessary. That’s especially true given that the team may want to begin looking at long-term extensions for Carr and Mack next year and for Cooper the year after that. At the moment, it appears as though all of those contracts will be hugely expensive.
That being said, there is simply not much the Raiders can or should do right now in terms of modifications or cuts. In fact, Spotrac’s list of potential cap casualties released on the first day of 2016 featured no Raiders players.
Curtis Lofton might have been a release candidate, but given that the Raiders allowed $3.5MM of his 2016 $5.35MM base salary to become fully guaranteed last week, it is apparent that Lofton will remain on the club. The Raiders might also consider cutting or even trading D.J. Hayden, but such a move would save the team less than $2MM against the cap, and considering Oakland’s depth problems in the secondary, hanging on to Hayden for one last year may make sense.
Many pundits were praising the signing of Roy Helu as one of the steals of free agency last year, but Helu never became a meaningful part of the team’s offense, and Oakland could create $2MM of cap room by releasing him.
Marcel Reece has been a useful member of the team’s offense in recent seasons, particularly as a blocker, and he is one of longest-tenured members of the roster (and a team captain to boot). But he will miss the first three games of the 2016 season due to his PED-related suspension, and Jamize Olawale looks more than capable of stepping into Reece’s shoes. The team could save $2.65MM by letting Reece go.
Finally, the Raiders could release longtime kicker Sebastian Janikowski and save $3.24MM by doing so. Janikowski stumbled in 2015, finishing 28th in the league in field goal percentage, though he was efficient in kicks over 50 yards. It would be somewhat surprising to see the Raiders release Janikowski before training camp, but Oakland should be on the lookout for the heir apparent to their aging kicker, who will turn 38 in March.
Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:
Just as the Raiders do not have many decisions to make in terms of significant releases, they also do not have much to do by way of contract extensions. It is too soon to explore extensions for the “Big Three” of Carr, Cooper, and Mack, but Latavius Murray is entering the final year of his rookie contract and could be in line for a new multi-year deal.
Murray was one of only seven backs league-wide to run for more than 1,000 yards, and he did so behind an offensive line that ranked just 19th in adjusted line yards. We recently learned that Lamar Miller is seeking a deal that would pay him around $5MM annually, and if he is able to land that type of payday, Murray would likely be able to command around the same. Contracts for running backs are generally becoming less and less expensive, so assuming Murray wants to stay in Oakland, it shouldn’t be too difficult for the Raiders to meet his market value.
Marcel Reece, meanwhile, is one of those rare players who could be an extension candidate or a release candidate. Reece was recently mentioned by Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com as a player that Oakland might consider extending, and his abilities as a blocker and receiver out of the backfield, along with his captaincy, explain why. Reece, like Murray, is entering the final year of his contract, and though he is more valuable to the Raiders than anyone else, it would not take much to get an extension done (a two-year, $6MM contract should be enough).
Longtime long snapper Jon Condo, who is set to become an unrestricted free agent next season, might also receive an extension at some point this year.
Overall Outlook:
The elephant in the room of course, is the question of where the Raiders will be playing their home games in the near future. They will remain at the O.Co Coliseum in Oakland for 2016, and the club’s new one-year lease with the Coliseum includes options for the 2017 and 2018 seasons, so owner Mark Davis will have some flexibility as he searches for a long-term stadium solution in the Bay Area and elsewhere.
While the Raiders’ efforts to get a new stadium will certainly continue to make headlines, the team’s roster is the focus here, and as far as their immediate on-field prospects are concerned, the Raiders are in pretty good shape — they may again emerge as playoff contenders after a 13-year hiatus from the postseason.
There are doubtlessly a number of issues to be resolved: the secondary is a mess, and the offensive line, even if Penn is re-signed, needs some depth and perhaps a re-tooling on the right side. And despite the strong play of Dan Williams and rookie Mario Edwards, and the star turn of Mack, McKenzie should at least add some quality depth pieces to the front seven.
However, with a promising young quarterback, a rising young wideout, and a second-year pass rusher who should at least be in the discussion for the best defensive player in the league, the Raiders have a lot to look forward to. Assuming continued growth from Carr and Cooper, and assuming McKenzie is able to effectively address the team’s defensive issues, this is certainly a team that can compete in the AFC West.
Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Sunday Roundup: T. Jackson, Osweiler, Jags
The brief post-Super Bowl lull has set in on the NFL world, but the first day of free agency is right around the corner, and you can bet that there will soon be reports concerning contract extensions, franchise tags, etc. As we await that deluge, let’s take a look at some news and notes from around the league:
- Seahawks backup quarterback Tarvaris Jackson is expected to test the free agent market this year, according to Jessamyn McIntyre of 710 ESPN Seattle (via Twitter). McIntyre reports that there was a strong market for Jackson’s services last season before he ultimately decided to re-up with Seattle.
- Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk wonders what it will take for the Broncos to retain Brock Osweiler, especially since there are likely to be a number of teams like the Texans, Jets, and Rams potentially willing to bid against Denver for his services. We learned yesterday that a contract with an AAV of around $9MM would probably not be enough to prevent Osweiler from testing the free agent market, and Florio appears to concur with that sentiment.
- Kevin Acee of The San Diego Times-Tribune explores potential stadium sites in San Diego that the Chargers might consider, concluding that the Mission Valley site, although less exciting, is more likely than the East Village option.
- Although there have been rumors that the Jaguars will consider adding an offensive tackle this offseason, Ryan O’Halloran of The Florida Times-Union would be surprised if that happened. O’Halloran notes that the Jaguars’ two starting tackles, Luke Joeckel and Jermey Parnell, currently account for the third and fourth highest cap charges on the roster, respectively, and he adds that no starting-caliber free agent tackle would sign with Jacksonville at this point.
- Joe Person of The Charlotte Observer looks at the biggest issues facing the Panthers this offseason. He believes that Carolina will ultimately put the franchise tag on Josh Norman and should ask defensive end Charles Johnson to rework his current deal.
- Although he may be a bit biased, former NFL GM and well-respected football mind Bill Polian believes the Lions made the right decision in retaining Jim Caldwell, per Kyle Meinke of MLive.com. Polian points to the team’s drastic improvement in the second half of the 2015 season and the players’ support of Caldwell as indicators that Caldwell is the right man for the job.
East Notes: Bills, Hicks, Cousins
Vic Carucci of The Buffalo News takes an interesting and in-depth look at the Bills‘ coaching dynamics prior to the hiring of Rex Ryan in early 2015. In 2014, the Bills’ defense under Jim Schwartz was terrific. It ranked fourth in yards allowed, first in sacks, and near the top of the league in a number of other statistical categories. Plus, there were no complaints that the system did not fit the players or that the team did not have enough talent to succeed on defense. So when former head coach Doug Marrone surprisingly decided to leave the team after his second year in Buffalo, Schwartz assumed the Bills would hire another offensive-minded head coach.
And then reports began to surface that the Bills were preparing to hire Ryan. Buffalo ownership wanted Schwartz to remain the team’s defensive coordinator, but given the philosophical differences between Schwartz and Ryan, Schwartz had no idea if he would remain the defensive coordinator in title only while someone else actually ran the defense. Ryan himself did not contact Schwartz until the day after he was hired, and that was to advise Schwartz that his services would no longer be required. The Bills defense, of course, took a major step back under Ryan, and there is a palpable sense of discontent among the team’s defensive players. As of right now, it is difficult to see the team making major strides in 2016, which could leave the front office with another tough coaching decision to make next year.
Now let’s round up a few more notes from the league’s east divisions:
- In light of the NFL’s recent race to Los Angeles, there has been a great deal of speculation as to whether the Bills will pursue a new stadium of their own, even though the lease on Ralph Wilson Stadium is not due to expire until 2023. But Carucci, in a separate piece for The Buffalo News, says team ownership has absolutely no desire to move forward with a new stadium, and New York governor Andrew Cuomo is of the same mindset. As Carucci writes, “after investing $130 million in renovations at The Ralph, staying in Orchard Park is a long-term solution that works best for everyone.”
- Phil Perry and Tom E. Curran of CSNNE.com, along with Mike Reiss of ESPNBoston.com, identify Akiem Hicks as the Patriots‘ top impending free agent. The 26-year-old Hicks was an excellent run-stuffer in 2015, and he showed a reasonable amount of pass rush ability as well. Hicks combined with Malcom Brown and Alan Branch to form a stout defensive front last season, but considering Dominique Easley‘s injury history and the lack of depth behind that core group, Perry and Curran believe re-signing Hicks should be New England’s top priority this offseason. Reiss, however, would be surprised if the team used the franchise tag on Hicks, as the 2016 franchise tag value for defensive tackles is projected to be over $13MM.
- Rich Tandler of CSNWashington.com examines what a new contract for Kirk Cousins might look like and what the odds are that Cousins gets the franchise tag, but Tandler does not envision any scenario in which Cousins will not be playing for Washington next year.
- John Keim of ESPN.com says Washington GM Scot McCloughan will approach free agency this season the same way he addressed it last year: with a number of relatively modest signings designed to add veteran stability to the team’s areas of need, like the defensive line and the secondary.
- Free agent guards Alex Boone and Jahri Evans would be good fits for the Dolphins, who could use some help at both guard positions, but considering Miami’s other needs, James Walker of ESPN.com does not believe the team has enough cap room to sign either player.
Owen Daniels Plans To Keep Playing
Broncos tight end Owen Daniels is a newly-minted Super Bowl champion and two-time Pro Bowler, and he has amassed 5,661 receiving yards and 36 touchdowns over a long and productive career. He is also 33, and he has had two of his ten professional seasons cut short, one due to a broken leg and one due to a torn ACL. All of that wear and tear has left him with no meniscus in his left knee and a right knee that caused him considerable pain throughout the course of the 2015 season.
Add it all up and it’s reasonable to wonder if Daniels is contemplating retirement. However, Daniels himself told Lindsay H. Jones of USA Today that he plans to continue playing at least through the end of his current contract, which runs through the 2017 season. He signed a three-year, $12.25MM deal last March and is set to count $4.5MM against the cap in 2016 and $5MM against the cap in 2017. The team could save $2.5MM by releasing him.
However, the Broncos do not currently have another tight end on the roster that could realistically step in for Daniels. Vernon Davis was a major disappointment after being acquired by Denver in a mid-season trade in 2015, and he is eligible for unrestricted free agency this year anyway. Virgil Green has been a quality No. 2 tight end during his five-year tenure with the Broncos, but he has not done much to show that he can step into the No. 1 role, and 2015 third-round selection Jeff Heuerman has significant upside but missed all of his rookie season after tearing his left ACL in a non-contact special teams drill last May.
Daniels spent the first eight seasons of his career with the Texans prior to signing a one-year deal with the Ravens in 2014. Current Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak was the Texans’ head coach for the entirety of Daniels’ career in Houston and served as Baltimore’s offensive coordinator in 2014 before both men moved to Denver in 2015. Daniels, a Wisconsin product, caught 46 balls for 517 yards and three scores last season, and he caught Peyton Manning‘s first pass of Super Bowl 50, good for 18 yards.
Said Daniels, “[Retirement’s] definitely an option. But I’m a man of my word, I signed a three-year deal, so I’d like to keep playing. I feel good enough as long as I can get some work done on my 33-year-old knees.”
Marshawn Lynch Intends To Retire
MONDAY, 2:43pm: Lynch’s agent, Doug Hendrickson, confirmed the running back’s plans to retire to Tim Booth of the Associated Press.
SUNDAY, 8:52pm: You had to know that Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch wouldn’t retire in a typical way. On Sunday night, the unique athlete posted an image of green cleats hung up over a wire, likely signifying that he is retiring this offseason. Lynch has also told people close to him that he intends to retire, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. 
Lynch, of course, has contemplated retirement the past several seasons, but this year appears to be the year he finally hangs up the cleats. Seattle GM John Schneider indicated several weeks ago that Lynch was “leaning towards retirement,” and Lynch’s injury-plagued 2015 may have been enough for the enigmatic back to call it quits.
Due to a hamstring injury early in the season and abdominal surgery in late November, Lynch was limited to just seven games in 2015. So while the bevy of reports from recent years indicating that Lynch was mulling retirement will make fans skeptical that he really means it this time, there are some key differences between Lynch’s situation now and then. During his first four years in Seattle, all Pro Bowl seasons, Lynch never ran for less than 1,200 yards or 11 touchdowns. In 2015, he was limited to 417 yards and three TDs in his seven games, and was barely used in Seattle’s playoff loss to the eventual NFC champion Panthers, as the Seahawks quickly fell behind 31-0 and needed to revert to a primarily aerial attack.
Lynch may stand to lose a great deal of money if he retires. As Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com observes (Twitter links), if Lynch does not have a retirement forfeiture clause in his contract, the Seahawks could recover $5MM of the $7.5MM bonus they paid to Lynch last year as part of his new contract (of course, Seattle may not pursue that money, and Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk reported when that contract was signed that he did not believe the Seahawks would do so).
Financial considerations aside, Lynch has nothing left to prove on the field. The former California Golden Bear is a five-time Pro Bowler, he was named a First-Team All-Pro in 2012, and he has a Super Bowl ring (had he received one more carry in last year’s Super Bowl, he may well have two rings). If this is it for Lynch, he will end his career averaging 4.3 yards per carry with 83 total touchdowns. Seattle, meanwhile, has 2015 revelation Thomas Rawls ready to step into the starting role if Lynch retires, and the team would suddenly have considerably more cap flexibility, as Lynch is scheduled to count $11.5MM against the cap in 2016.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
East Notes: Vernon, L. Miller, Patriots
Earlier today, we heard a report that the Eagles are not planning to use the franchise tag on Sam Bradford, while the team may have some interest in reacquiring Nick Foles. While some cold water was quickly thrown on that rumor, it will remain a situation worth monitoring. The following links from around the league’s east divisions are also of note:
- Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes that the Dolphins place more importance on retaining DE Olivier Vernon than RB Lamar Miller, as they believe they have an in-house option to replace Miller (Jay Ajayi), while the same cannot be said for Vernon. Jackson notes, however, that Miami will attempt to re-sign both, and the franchise tag remains an option for Vernon.
- Although the Patriots rarely make a big splash in free agency, Mike Reiss of ESPNBoston.com says the team will at least explore the possibility of acquiring Matt Forte, who would not have to be the workhorse he has been in Chicago to have a significant impact on New England’s offense.
- In the same piece, Reiss examines what a potential extension would look like for Patriots DE Chandler Jones, and Reiss looks to Vinny Curry‘s recent five-year $47.25MM deal with the Eagles as a floor, as Jones is the superior player. It has been speculated for some time now that New England will not retain Jones beyond 2016.
- Rich Cimini of ESPNNewYork.com believes the Jets will try to re-sign Damon Harrison before he hits the open market, but if they fail to do so, Cimini believes Harrison will sign elsewhere (Twitter link).
- John Keim of ESPN.com writes that Washington‘s biggest needs are on the defensive side of the ball, and to that end he believes the team should focus on adding depth along the defensive line and at the cornerback position while nabbing a safety in the early rounds of the draft.
- One player who would certainly fit Washington‘s needs would be Denver DE Malik Jackson, according to Rich Tandler of CSNWashington.com. But as Tandler observes, Jackson will be in high demand and could end up out of Washington’s price range as a result.
Eagles Unlikely To Franchise Sam Bradford, Interested In Nick Foles?
12:44pm: It appears that Bowen’s skepticism may have been well-founded. McLane says the Eagles have not yet made a decision on Bradford, and Foles’ cap number ($8.75MM) and dead money hit ($8MM) would make a trade highly unlikely (Twitter links). In a full-length piece, Bowen says the same thing, writing that there is “no chance” that Philadelphia will reacquire Foles.
12:00pm: The Eagles are not expected to use the franchise tag on Sam Bradford if the two sides cannot reach an agreement on a new contract, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter (via Twitter). However, Schefter reports that Philadelphia does have “some” interest in re-signing Bradford.
Bradford, who came to the Eagles in the trade that sent Nick Foles to the Rams, struggled out of the gate in his first season in Philly, though he did play much better in the second half of the year as he grew more comfortable in Chip Kelly‘s offense. Kelly, in his capacity as head coach/personnel executive, was responsible for bringing Bradford to the Eagles, but Kelly was fired before the end of the season and the team hired Doug Pederson to take his place on the sidelines while displaced vice president of football operations Howie Roseman regained his authority over personnel matters. As such, two of the team’s biggest decision-makers have no real commitment to Bradford.
On the other hand, Pederson was on Philadelphia’s staff when the team drafted Foles in the third round of the 2012 season, and he served as Foles’ quarterbacks coach that year. In a second tweet, Schefter reports that Pederson is interested in bringing Foles back to the Eagles. Foles, for his part, was an abject failure in his first season with the Rams, completing just 56.4% of his passes and throwing seven touchdowns against ten interceptions in 11 games. He did, however, sign a two-year extension with the club prior to the beginning of the 2015 campaign, so he remains under contract through the 2017 season.
Neither Foles nor Bradford represents anything close to a perfect solution, but Bradford was clearly the superior player in 2015, and the fact that he managed to stay largely healthy and continued to improve down the stretch indicates that the team would be better off retaining him rather than attempting to reacquire Foles. That is especially true if Bradford can be had for a one-year deal, as former NFL agent Joel Corry suggested at the end of January. Even if the Eagles’ decision not to tag Bradford is understandable–after all, a $20MM commitment is a steep price for an imperfect player with a considerable injury history, and Bradford could always hold out–any attempts to bring back Foles at the expense of Bradford would be considerably less justifiable.
Nonetheless, it is worth noting that Roseman is known for his intentional misdirection, as Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets, and now that he is back in charge of personnel matters, it is probably wise to take reports like this one with more than one grain of salt. Indeed, Les Bowen of the Philadelphia Daily News has made his skepticism on the matter quite plain in a series of tweets.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images