East Notes: Fitzpatrick, Patriots, Giants
We heard earlier today that the Broncos have, in fact, reached out to free agent quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, but like the Jets, Denver is unwilling to meet Fitzpatrick’s current salary demands. As Brian Costello of The New York Post writes, Denver’s “stinginess” in that regard could push Fitzpatrick back to New York, since other quarterback-needy clubs like the Browns, 49ers, and Rams have expressed no interest in the 33-year-old. Costello does have a point, and as he writes in a separate piece, it is probably time for both sides to come out of their respective trenches and compromise, with a contract worth about $10MM per year and some incentives based on statistics or playoff appearances looking like a fair middle ground.
Now let’s take a look at some more links fro the league’s east divisions:
- Count Jets wideout Brandon Marshall as one big-name member of Gang Green that wants Fitzpatrick to return to the team. As Seth Walder of The New York Daily News writes, Marshall fears losing Fitz to free agency, saying, “The way we communicate, the way we practice together, the way we bring other guys together, I’ve never seen that anywhere else. And I’ve been a lot of places. And I’ve had a lot of quarterbacks. So that’s the toughest thing for me when I think about him potentially putting on another jersey.”
- The Patriots, as usual, have been relatively quiet during the first wave of free agency, and as Ben Volin of The Boston Globe observes, that approach makes sense, as New England already has its top players under contract and is saving to re-sign some of its key contributors whose contracts expire at the end of the 2016 season (like Malcolm Butler, Jamie Collins, and Rob Ninkovich). Volin suggests, however, that the team may want to take care of Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman now to head off any possible discontent (Gronkowski has recently expressed frustration with his contract on Twitter, and while Edelman has not publicly voiced any concern with his current deal, the fact that Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola are set to make more money than him in 2016 could change things in a hurry).
- Unlike New England, the Giants made a huge splash in the early stages of free agency, and Ralph Vacchiano of The New York Daily News commends the club for its extravagances. Jordan Raanan of NJ.com, though, notes that Big Blue is not done spending, and he puts together a list of second-tier players the Giants could target, a list that includes players like Andre Holmes, Rashad Johnson, and Andre Branch.
- Raanan passes along a note on Keenan Robinson‘s new deal with the Giants, pointing out that the contract is actually a one-year, $2.6MM pact. It had previously been reported that Robinson had inked a one-year, $3.5MM deal, but Raanan says that $900K of that figure is comprised of not likely to be earned incentives. Raanan’s piece provides details on all of the Giants’ free agent contracts thus far.
- Armando Salguero of The Miami Herald welcomes the Dolphins‘ new, more measured approach to free agency this offseason, a stark contrast to the team’s recent free-spending ways. Although one can take issue with some of Miami’s decisions–the Mario Williams signing, for instance–the change in strategy is still refreshing.
Latest On Colin Kaepernick
There are several things we know about the Colin Kaepernick situation at the moment: we know that Kaepernick is willing to restructure his contract and take a pay cut to get out of San Francisco, and we know that the Browns are willing to give up a third-round pick to the 49ers to land Kaepernick (and, because the Browns are picking so high in each round, their third-round selection, No. 65 overall, is very close to being a second-round pick, which is reportedly San Francisco’s asking price for No. 7). Those developments, combined with the recent report that the Browns are currently the team in the driver’s seat in the pursuit of Kaepernick–not to mention Kaepernick’s apparent desire to play for the Browns–suggest that the former Nevada product could be on his way to Cleveland in the near future.
However, as Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee writes, Kaepernick is wary of taking a pay cut to play for the Browns given how much talent the team has lost at the start of free agency. In the past week, Alex Mack has signed with the Falcons, Mitchell Schwartz has signed with the Chiefs, and Travis Benjamin has joined the Chargers (plus, the Browns could always trade Joe Thomas between now and the draft, as Mark Kay Cabot of The Cleveland Plain Dealer writes). Since Cleveland’s roster was already fairly weak prior to the exodus of some of its best talent, and since the team is prepared to draft a top quarterback prospect with the No. 2 overall pick even if it brings Kaepernick aboard, it is easy to see why Kaepernick, despite his respect for new Browns head coach Hue Jackson, would be hesitant to join Jackson in Cleveland. Barrows notes that, if the Browns had offered the No. 65 overall selection for Kaepernick a week ago, Cleveland may well have a new quarterback at this point, but the early days of free agency have suddenly made that possibility much more uncertain. While the Browns would like to pay Kaepernick like a bridge quarterback–roughly $7MM-$8MM per year, with incentives for games started–they may have to pony up more cash if they still want Kaepernick.
The Broncos, of course, are still a potential landing spot for Kaepernick, and Barrows reports that if Denver came to Kaepernick with the same deal the Browns offered for the quarterback, he’d likely sign it in a second. But the Broncos and the 49ers are still at an impasse in trade talks, as Denver is willing to give up its third-round selection, No. 94 overall, while San Francisco is probably holding out for the Broncos’ No. 63 overall selection. Still, if the Broncos are unable to sign Robert Griffin III or Ryan Fitzpatrick, they may be willing to meet the 49ers’ asking price.
Meanwhile, the Jets are still lurking in the background, and Kaepernick would suddenly become a stronger option for New York if it cannot come to terms with Fitzpatrick, who nearly guided Gang Green to the playoffs in 2015 but who is currently seeking a contract that will pay him $16-$18MM per year. And the 49ers, of course, still control Kaepernick’s contractual rights, and they have repeatedly insisted that they are willing to keep him beyond April 1, when his $11.9 million base salary for 2016 would become fully guaranteed. New head coach Chip Kelly, after all, will install an offense that appears perfect for Kaepernick’s skill-set, and the 49ers certainly have the cap space to retain their once-promising QB. But Kaepernick’s apparent distaste for San Francisco could manifest itself in very uncomfortable ways for the club, which suggests that he will, in fact, have a new home in 2016. Where that home will be, however, remains a mystery as the quarterback carousel rolls on.
Dak Prescott Arrested For DUI
Former Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott, who has been projected as a second- or third-round prospect in this year’s draft, was arrested for DUI early Saturday morning, according to a report from Michael Bonner and Sarah Fowler of The Clarion-Ledger. The arrest took place near the Cotton District in Starkville at 12:45 a.m., and Prescott was later released on bond. No further details are available at this time, and Prescott’s representation, Pro Sports Management, has refused comment.
Prescott is one of the most-beloved Mississippi State players in the history of the program, having led the Bulldogs to a five-week stint as the No. 1 team in the country, as well as an Orange Bowl appearance, in the 2014 season. A dynamic dual-threat talent, Prescott holds every school passing record and was named MVP of this year’s Senior Bowl after guiding Mississippi State to a convincing victory in the 2015 Belk Bowl. The Bulldogs also took home the 2013 Liberty Bowl with Prescott under center, and he, along with head coach Dan Mullen, was a driving force behind the school’s rise to relevance in the powerhouse SEC.
NFL Network draft guru Mike Mayock lists Prescott as the fifth-best quarterback in this year’s draft class, behind presumptive first-rounders Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, and Paxton Lynch, and one spot behind Michigan State’s Connor Cook. Matt Miller of Bleacher Report tweets that Prescott has been moving up his draft board, and Prescott has been mentioned as at least a speculative fit for the Cowboys and Broncos. He met with every team in the league at this year’s scouting combine, and as Tyler Dunne of The Buffalo News tweets, he was set to meet with the Bills prior to the draft.
Prescott was in Starkville for Mississippi State’s pro day on Thursday, which helped cement his status as a second-day prospect. His DUI arrest, however, will almost certainly impact his draft stock.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Offseason Outlook: Arizona Cardinals
Pending free agents:
- Jason Babin, OLB
- Jaron Brown, WR (RFA)
- Red Bryant, DE
- Kenny Demens, LB (ERFA)
- Dwight Freeney, OLB
- Jermaine Gresham, TE
- Tony Jefferson, S (RFA)
- Chris Johnson, RB
- Rashad Johnson, S
- Ted Larsen, G
- Bobby Massie, T
- Josh Mauro, DE (ERFA)
- Ifeanyi Momah, WR (ERFA)
- Jerraud Powers, CB
- Lyle Sendlein, C
- Bradley Sowell, T
- Drew Stanton, QB
- Sean Weatherspoon, ILB
- D.J. Swearinger, S (RFA)
- Corey White, CB
- LaMarr Woodley, OLB
Top 15 cap hits for 2016:
- Carson Palmer, QB: $17,875,000
- Larry Fitzgerald, WR: $15,850,000
- Calais Campbell, DE: $15,250,000
- Patrick Peterson, CB: $13,072,377
- Jared Veldheer, T: $9,000,000
- Daryl Washington, ILB: $7,500,000 (remains indefinitely suspended)
- Michael Floyd, WR: $7,320,000
- Mike Iupati, G: $5,700,000
- Jonathan Cooper, G: $4,629,227
- Cory Redding, DE: $4,000,000
- Justin Bethel, CB: $3,250,000
- Corey Peters, DT: $2,566,666
- Deone Bucannon, S: $2,102,509
- D.J. Humphries, T: $2,025,480
- Alex Okafor, OLB: $1,765,607
Notable coaching/front office moves:
- No major changes.
Draft:
- No. 30 overall pick
- Owe seventh-round pick to Eagles in deal for QB Matt Barkley.
Other:
- Current projected cap room (via Over the Cap): $15.66MM
- Must exercise or decline fifth-year option for 2017 for G Jonathan Cooper.
- Re-signed P Drew Butler.
- LS Mike Leach announced his retirement.
Overview:
The 2015 Cardinals came just shy of reaching Super Bowl 50, losing the NFC Championship Game in a 49-15 drubbing at the hands of the Panthers. But, as might be expected for a team that finished the regular season with a 13-3 record and that earned a first-round bye in the playoffs, Arizona’s short-term future is fairly promising.
After all, the Cardinals boasted one of the league’s best defenses for the fourth year in a row – per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric – and because quarterback Carson Palmer was (mostly) able to stay healthy in 2015 en route to this third Pro Bowl nod, the team’s offense was equally strong, grading out as the fourth most-efficient unit in the NFL. The club is not flush with cap space, but it certainly has enough to retain at least some of its key free agents – none of which will come with a prohibitive price tag – while also exploring a lucrative, long-term extension for do-it-all defensive back Tyrann Mathieu.
On the other hand, Palmer is 36 and has an extensive injury history, and there is no one currently on the roster than looks capable of replacing him on a permanent basis. Future Hall-of-Famer Larry Fitzgerald enjoyed a rebirth in 2015, but he’s entering the last year of his contract and probably doesn’t have many effective seasons left in the tank – if he even continues his playing career beyond 2016 – and Michael Floyd is also eligible for unrestricted free agency after the 2016 season. Plus, as effective as the defense was, there are some question marks, particularly at pass rusher and in the secondary’s depth, and the future of the offensive line is up in the air.
Assuming Palmer can stay healthy, the Cardinals should again compete for one of the NFC’s top seeds. But if the club want to keep its window of contention open in the long-term, there are some issues to address.
Key Free Agents:
Dwight Freeney was a godsend for the Cardinals in 2015, joining the team on a one-year deal in October after Alex Okafor was sidelined with a calf injury and providing Arizona with a much-needed jolt to its pass rush. He racked up eight sacks in 11 games, but he was close to retiring before signing with the Cardinals, and he is still undecided about whether or not he will play in 2016. Arizona would surely like to have him back on a one-year pact, especially since LaMarr Woodley is unlikely to be re-signed, but Freeney’s status is highly uncertain at the moment.
Okafor was a key component of the Cardinals’ defense last season, but he didn’t have the same impact in 2015 that he had in 2014, and although 2015 second-round draft choice Markus Golden played well after being thrust into the lineup, there is no depth behind him and Okafor. Bringing Freeney back into the fold would help the team stabilize its pass rush as it seeks a dominant edge rusher.
Despite having decent depth on paper, the Cardinals’ secondary saw a noticeable drop in performance when Mathieu landed on the IR late in the regular season. Arizona will probably look to re-sign Jerraud Powers, who provides solid-if-unspectacular play at the cornerback position, and while the Cardinals could bring back safety Tony Jefferson, the fact that they only extended a low-end tender to the restricted free agent suggests that they aren’t totally sold on him (despite his grading out as he 18th-best safety out of 88 eligible players per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics). Jefferson could be one of those rare restricted free agents that finds himself switching teams this offseason, and there’s some question as to whether the team will be able to retain fellow safety Rashad Johnson.
On offense, the Cardinals would probably like to re-sign Drew Stanton, but the going rate for solid backup quarterbacks is about $4MM per year, as Chad Henne‘s new contract with the Jaguars suggests. It’s unclear if Arizona will be able to pony up that type of cash considering the team has more pressing needs on the defensive side of the ball and perhaps along the offensive line.
On the other hand, Arizona’s offense has been a mess when neither Palmer nor Stanton have been available to play, so the club may have no other choice. The free agent market for quarterbacks is predictably barren – at least the part of the market the Cardinals would be exploring – and although many pundits expect the Cards to consider drafting a quarterback they could groom behind Palmer, a mid-round rookie is unlikely to immediately provide the stability that Stanton offers.
Chris Johnson was a pleasant surprise for Arizona after he signed a one-year, $870K contract with the club last season. Although a fractured tibia suffered in the second half of the season sidelined him for the stretch run, Johnson did manage a 4.2 yards per carry average while racking up 814 rushing yards in just 11 games, serving as a nice change-of-pace back for David Johnson. CJ2K recently expressed his desire to return to the Cardinals, and Arizona would probably like to bring him back. The two sides should be able to reach an agreement on a relatively modest contract.
The left side of the Cardinals’ offensive line is pretty set with Jared Veldheer and Mike Iupati at left tackle and left guard, respectively, but on the rest of the line, questions abound. Lyle Sendlein, last year’s starting center, Ted Larsen, last year’s starting right guard, and Bobby Massie, last year’s starting right tackle, are all eligible for unrestricted free agency and could all be playing elsewhere next season. None of those players are particularly inspiring, and the Cardinals have reason to hope they have viable in-house replacements for all of them.
Last year’s first-round pick, tackle D.J. Humphries, did not play a down in 2015 after performing poorly in training camp and the preseason, and head coach Bruce Arians openly commented on Humphries’ lack of motivation. 2013 first-round pick, guard Jonathan Cooper, was benched halfway through the season in favor of Larsen, and he has largely failed to live up to expectations as well. However, because of the draft pedigrees of Humphries and Cooper, they could enter 2016 as starters, though Arizona would likely want to at least bring in some competition for both — especially Humphries (whose work ethic reportedly improved as the 2015 season went on).
If Sendlein leaves, the team could turn to A.Q. Shipley, who is average at best, or, given that the Cardinals have already invested high draft picks and a great deal of money at the guard and tackle positions in recent years, perhaps this offseason they’ll use a top draft choice or significant free agent dollars on a center (although the top center on the market, Alex Mack, is out of their price range). Alternatively, the Cards have considered shifting Cooper to center, which would allow them to re-sign Larsen on a modest contract to continue serving as the right guard. The team is also said to be high on some of its practice squad players like John Wetzel and Rob Crisp, who was a priority undrafted free agent last season.
Jermaine Gresham, who underwent surgery on a herniated disc last March, was not a major part of the Cardinals’ offense in 2015 after signing a one-year deal with the club in July. He caught 18 passes for 223 yards and one score, and became the latest in a string of Cardinals tight ends who have simply been unable to find much footing in the team’s offensive game plans. Troy Niklas is entering the third season of his career, and still has a small amount of upside, and Darren Fells – who surprisingly led the club’s tight end corps with 21 catches for 311 yards and three touchdowns – recently re-signed with the team.
The Cardinals also liked what they saw out of Ifeanyi Momah last preseason, but the converted wideout was placed on season-ending IR in September after injuring his knee. Momah, an exclusive rights free agent, figures to be back now that he has been tendered a contract, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team target a tight end in free agency and/or the draft. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, however, both options offer slim pickings at the position.
Possible Cap Casualties:
The most obvious potential cap casualty this offseason is linebacker Daryl Washington, who has all the talent in the world but who has been suspended for each of the past two seasons and who remains indefinitely banned. The Cardinals could save $2.5MM by cutting him prior to June 1, or $3.5MM by designating him as a post-June 1 cut, though as long as he’s not reinstated, there’s no rush for the team to make a move. The most recent report concerning Washington indicated that he was continuing to violate the terms of the league’s substance-abuse policy and that his career may be over.
Defensive linemen Cory Redding and Frostee Rucker have enjoyed long and productive careers in the NFL, but the Cardinals will need to get younger along their defensive front sooner rather than later, and Arizona could save $3MM by releasing Redding and about $1.2MM by cutting Rucker. It’s unclear whether the team will let go of both veterans, but one or the other will surely be seeking his fortune elsewhere this offseason. Corey Peters, who signed a three-year deal with the Cardinals last March but who missed the entirety of the 2015 campaign with a torn ACL that he suffered in August, will be relied upon to pick up some of the slack, as will Rodney Gunter.
Theoretically, Alex Okafor could be a release candidate given his disappointing 2015 season – the Cardinals could save nearly $1.7MM by cutting him – but the team needs all the pass rush help it can get, and it is not unreasonable to expect Okafor to bounce back to his 2014 form.
Likewise, although Michael Floyd has been mentioned as a possible cap casualty – after all, the team could save over $7MM by letting him go – it seems much more likely that he would be in line for an extension, which could also reduce his cap charge a fair amount. Floyd, Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown might represent the best trio of wideouts in the league, and a team with Super Bowl aspirations would be foolish to cut Floyd at this point. He may be inconsistent, and he may be banged up more frequently than the Cardinals might like, but he was excellent down the stretch in 2015, racking up over 100 receiving yards five times in his final eight games of the regular season, and the team is much better with him than without him.
All in all, then, the Cardinals do not have any easy fixes to buy themselves a great deal of cap space, but, like most teams, they could shed a couple of contracts that would create enough breathing room to effectively transact their offseason business without doing much damage on their on-field product.
Positions Of Need:
Arguably the Cardinals’ biggest need is at pass rusher. However, we heard at the end of January that the team didn’t expect to target an impact pass rusher in free agency. That seemed to indicate that the Cardinals would strongly consider using an early draft pick to nab a prospect capable of getting to the quarterback, but there aren’t a great deal of top flight pass rushers in this year’s draft class, which is said to be deeper in interior line prospects than in edge defenders, so the team may be forced to pursue an upgrade in free agency.
I would expect the Cardinals to try and convince Dwight Freeney to return, and Tamba Hali, although he is not the same player he used to be, could be a target as well. Schematically, recently-released players like Mario Williams and Charles Johnson don’t really fit, and the same is true of Olivier Vernon, who has been hit with the transition tag, and Jason Pierre-Paul (although Williams and Vernon could theoretically play 3-4 outside linebacker in Arizona’s system). Most of the other free agent outside linebackers are either uninspiring or are better edge-setters than pass rushers, which could make Georgia’s Leonard Floyd, who is widely regarded as one of the biggest “boom-or-bust” prospects in this year’s draft, a potential target for the Cardinals if he falls to the bottom of the first round.
Assuming one or both of the pair of Tony Jefferson and Rashad Johnson depart, the Cardinals will need a safety. The free agent market is deep in potential replacements there, with players like Eric Weddle, George Iloka, Tashaun Gipson, and Reggie Nelson headlining the class. It would take a fairly significant contract to land one of those players, and Arizona probably has enough cap space to land just one premium talent in free agency this offseason.
Since there aren’t many pass rushers deserving of such a deal, Arizona could sign a safety, or they could seek their much-needed cover help at the cornerback position, which also has a lot of free agent talent. Players like Janoris Jenkins, Prince Amukamara, and Casey Hayward are available, and even lesser players like Shareece Wright could make sense even if the team is able to retain Jerraud Powers. The draft’s top safety prospects like Miles Killebrew and Jeremy Cash aren’t especially strong in coverage, and top cornerback prospects like Vernon Hargreaves, Eli Apple, and Mackensie Alexander will probably be off the board by the time Arizona makes its first selection. However, a player like Houston corner William Jackson III could make a great deal of sense.
Along the offensive line, there aren’t many free agent options at the center position if the Cardinals are unable or unwilling to bring back Lyle Sendlein, with Manny Ramirez and Stefen Wisniewski as possible exceptions. If Arizona shifts Jonathan Cooper over to center and doesn’t bring back Ted Larsen, the team could target a player like guard Geoff Schwartz. Depending on the Cards’ comfort level with Humphries – and assuming they don’t re-sign Bobby Massie and/or Bradley Sowell – a player like Mitchell Schwartz or Will Beatty could be an option as well.
Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:
As noted above, working out an extension with Michael Floyd would allow the Cardinals to reduce his cap charge in 2016 and keep him under club control for the foreseeable future. It’s difficult to predict what a long-term deal would look like, as Floyd has not exactly lived up to his status as the No. 13 overall selection in the 2012 draft. Nonetheless, he has shown flashes of brilliance, and those flashes, combined with his size, athletic ability, and still-considerable upside, would have his camp looking for a payday befitting a No. 1 wideout — the Cardinals, conversely, would want to give him a contract more in line with his performance to date.
I would think the five-year, $55MM contract Jeremy Maclin signed with the Chiefs last season would be a reasonable benchmark, but the eventual contracts for this year’s crop of free agent wide receivers like Marvin Jones, Rishard Matthews, and Travis Benjamin will also help bring some clarity to Floyd’s market.
Tyrann Mathieu, meanwhile, will be in line for a lucrative deal of his own, and Arizona brass has made it clear that an extension for the defensive back is one of the team’s top priorities this offseason. A report from two weeks ago indicated that the two parties are, in fact, at the negotiating table, and it will be interesting to see how those negotiations play out. Despite missing the last two games of the 2015 regular season – and all of the playoffs – due to a torn right ACL, the Honey Badger earned first-team All-Pro honors for the first time in his career. He tallied 17 pass breakups, 80 tackles, and a forced fumble this year to go along with five interceptions – one of which he returned for a touchdown – and he ranked as the league’s best cornerback per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required).
Of course, the Cardinals would rather pay Mathieu like a top safety than like a top cornerback, as Mathieu plays safety in Arizona’s 3-4 base defense. However, the Cardinals run their base defense on only 33% of their defensive snaps. In all other sub-packages, Mathieu plays cornerback, usually serving as the slot corner, and he actually played all seven positions in the back seven at some point in 2015. It could be that the two sides simply split the difference between the average annual values earned by the top corners in the league ($14MM) and the top safeties ($10MM), but in any event, it appears as though Mathieu will reap the rewards for his excellent performance in short order.
The Cardinals would also do well to address Calais Campbell‘s massive $15.2MM cap hit. Campbell was named to the Pro Bowl for the second consecutive season, and he graded out as the 14th-best interior defender out of 123 eligible players per PFF. He is entering the final year of the five-year, $55MM pact he signed with Arizona prior to the 2012 season, and even though he’ll be 30 when the regular season begins, another extension could do wonders for the team’s cap outlook in 2016 and would also keep the anchor of the Cardinals’ defensive front under club control for the remainder of his most productive seasons.
It is unlikely the Cardinals will address Larry Fitzgerald‘s contract this offseason, since he already has cap hits in 2017 and 2018 even though he’s only under contract through the 2016 season (that undesirable outcome is a result of the Cardinals’ restructuring of Fitzgerald’s contract last year, which made his 2015 cap charge much more manageable). Restructuring Patrick Peterson‘s mega-deal would lead to similar problems, and the Cardinals are not desperate enough for 2016 cap space that they should consider such a restructure.
Overall Outlook:
The Cardinals should again be a powerhouse in the NFC in 2016. There are some concerns about the roster beyond 2016, as it lacks a long-term solution at quarterback and has some significant question marks on the offensive line. Additionally, many of its major contributors on the defensive line are either at the end of their careers, are release candidates, or are largely unproven. That’s not to mention, of course, that Fitzgerald may be playing his last season, and the Cardinals are still without a major pass rushing threat.
Still, the Cardinals have thrived under Bruce Arians, and GM Steve Keim is more than capable of keeping his club competitive. The contract issues that the team needs to address this offseason are relatively straightforward, and although the Cards will probably be relying on some fairly inexperienced talent at crucial positions this year – like right tackle, for instance – there’s no reason they cannot continue to thrive, as long as they begin preparing for life after Carson Palmer.
Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
FA Rumors: Osweiler, Okung, M. Williams
The big news of the day, of course, was the report that Peyton Manning will officially announce his retirement tomorrow. However, offseason business in the NFL waits for no man, and to that end, here are some notes regarding some of this year’s biggest free agents:
- After Manning’s decision, and with free agency set to officially open on Wednesday, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets that the Broncos‘ negotiations with Brock Osweiler will really begin to ramp up.
- Adam Schefter of ESPN.com tweets that Osweiler may indeed re-sign with the Broncos, but that is far from a certainty at this point. As Schefter observes, other quarterback-needy clubs could make it difficult for Denver to retain the fifth-year signal-caller.
- Even though the Seahawks are interested in retaining him, LT Russell Okung is intent on hitting the free agent market, per Rapoport (via Twitter).
- Rapoport tweets that Mario Williams stayed the night in Miami after visiting the Dolphins, and while Williams has other visits lined up, Rapoport says that Miami could keep him from taking those visits.
- Panthers GM Dave Gettleman does not spend big in free agency, but if he makes an exception this offseason, Joe Person of The Charlotte Observer identifies Eric Weddle and Bruce Irvin as two players that would make a great deal of sense for Carolina.
- Aaron Wilson of The Houston Chronicle tweets that the Texans will be active in exploring the top of the free agent running back market after parting ways with Arian Foster. Wilson names Chris Ivory, Doug Martin, Lamar Miller, and Matt Forte as possibilities for Houston.
- The Eagles will certainly invest free agent dollars and draft picks in their offensive line this offseason, and Jeff McLane of The Philadelphia Inquirer names Jeff Allen and Brandon Brooks as realistic targets for the club.
- Free agent wide receiver Anquan Boldin, unsurprisingly, wants to continue his career with a title contender, according to Rand Getlin of the NFL Network (via Twitter).
James Laurinaitis To Visit Falcons
Free agent linebacker James Laurinaitis, who visited the Saints last week but who left New Orleans without a contract,will visit the Falcons on Monday and Tuesday, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter (via Twitter). We heard after Laurinaitis’ visit with the Saints that both sides still had some interest in getting a deal done, but now division-rival Atlanta will have a shot at adding the former Buckeye to the middle of its defense.
Laurinaitis, who was released by the Rams on February 19, had spent his entire career with the club since being selected in the second round of the 2009 draft. Since that time, he has not missed a single game, starting all 112 of the Rams’ contests at inside linebacker. He has never received a Pro Bowl nod, but he has racked up over 100 tackles in each season he has been in the league, adding 16.5 sacks and 10 interceptions in the process. However, he graded out as one of the worst linebackers in the NFL in 2015 per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required), and his performance has shown a small but steady decline over the past several seasons.
Nonetheless, he may still represent a boost for a club like the Falcons that is seeking an upgrade in the middle of its defense. Atlanta deployed Paul Worrilow, a restricted free agent, as the middle linebacker position last year, but they are clearly considering other options. Broncos linebacker Danny Trevathan is also said to be high on the Falcons’ radar, and while Trevathan is a better player than Laurinaitis at this point, he would come with a higher price tag. Atlanta does, however, have over $33MM in cap room.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Peyton Manning To Retire
It sounds like it’s for real this time. Peyton Manning will announce his retirement tomorrow in Denver, per ESPN’s Chris Mortensen (article via Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com). The Broncos’ official website has confirmed the report, and as Troy E. Renck of The Denver Post writes, Manning broke the news to GM John Elway and head coach Gary Kubiak last night. Manning’s press conference will be held at 1pm EST tomorrow, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (via Twitter).
Manning will leave the NFL as a two-time Super Bowl champion, and the league’s all-time leader in total wins by a QB (200), passing yards (71,940) and passing touchdowns (539). He also holds the record for most single-season TD tosses (55, set in 2013). Additionally, the No. 1 overall pick of the 1998 draft has racked up 14 Pro Bowl bids, seven First-Team All-Pro selections, and five MVP awards on the heels of a stellar career at the University of Tennessee. He retires as the highest-paid player in NFL history, earning nearly $250MM over the course of his career (per Sportac). 
Manning spent the first 14 seasons of his remarkable career with the Colts, but after undergoing neck surgery in May 2011, Manning was still unable to complete his throwing motion and ultimately was forced to undergo spinal fusion surgery and miss the entirety of the 2011 season. That snapped his streak of 208 consecutive regular season starts and cast his NFL future into serious doubt. Indeed, when he began his recovery from the spinal fusion surgery, he could barely throw a football 10 yards, and even after he signed a highly-lucrative contract with Denver in March 2012, the Broncos were uncertain enough about Manning’s abilities that they drafted Brock Osweiler in the second round of the 2012 draft.
All of which makes Manning’s accomplishments with the Broncos all the more remarkable. During his four-year stint in the Mile High City, Manning completed 66.5% of his passes for 17,112 yards, 140 touchdowns against 53 interceptions, and he picked up three of his Pro Bowl nods, two of his First-Team All-Pro selections, one of his MVP awards, and of course, one of his two Super Bowl rings.
The 2015 campaign, though it ended in triumph, was perhaps the most difficult of Manning’s career, as he appeared in 10 regular-season games and compiled his second-lowest completion percentage (59.8%), not to mention personal worsts in touchdown passes (nine, against 17 interceptions) and QB rating (67.9). Manning was out of action for the second half of November and all of December because of a foot injury, but he relieved a banged-up Osweiler in Week 17 and never relinquished the starting job. Manning worked in a game manager role during the postseason, when the Broncos’ defense led the club to wins over the Steelers, Patriots and Panthers en route to a Super Bowl title.
In addition to his on-field difficulties in 2015, Manning faced scrutiny for his off-field behavior. In December, Al-Jazeera America released a documentary alleging that Manning and his wife, Ashley, received shipments of human growth hormone from the Guyer Institute as Manning was recovering from the above-referenced surgery. Manning has vehemently denied those allegations and even threatened legal action.
Manning is also among the athletes cited in a lawsuit filed by a number of women claiming that the University of Tennessee violated Title IX regulations and fostered a “hostile sexual environment” through its indifference to assaults allegedly committed by student-athletes. Manning is accused of placing his naked genitals on the face of trainer Dr. Jamie Naughright while she was examining him in 1996. Manning has denied the assault, claiming that he was mooning a teammate when the alleged incident took place, and Naughright’s earlier lawsuit against Manning himself was ultimately settled in 1997 with the agreement that Naughright leave the university.
A report last week suggested that Manning would indeed announce his intention to retire, but shortly after that report was published, other writers were quick to observe that Manning had not yet finalized his decision. It was still widely-expected that Manning would hang up the cleats, and even if he did choose to play for another season, it would not have been for the Broncos. If Manning had not made up his mind by the time his $19MM 2016 salary became fully-guaranteed on March 8, the Broncos would have been forced to release him so that they could clear his $19MM cap hit from the books. Now that Manning has decided to retire, Denver will perhaps use a good chunk of that money to sign Osweiler to a multi-year deal, thus signaling not only the end of a Broncos era, but the end of an NFL epoch.
We at Pro Football Rumors congratulate Manning, arguably the greatest quarterback of all time, on a remarkable career and wish him well in his future endeavors.
Connor Byrne contributed to this post
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Big Name Rumors: Kaepernick, Miller, Martin
Let’s take a look at some rumors surrounding the biggest names of this offseason, beginning with updates on Colin Kaepernick and Von Miller.
- Contrary to yesterday’s speculation from Ian Rapoport, John McClain of The Houston Chronicle tweets that the Texans have “no interest” in trading for Kaepernick. Likewise, Mary Kay Cabot of The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that the Browns are not interested in dealing for Kaepernick at this time.
- As Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee observes, now that Kaepernick’s unhappiness with the 49ers is public knowledge, the team has zero leverage in trade talks. Instead of being traded, Kaepernick would reportedly prefer to be released, an alternative that would probably lead to less money for him but would allow him to choose his next destination. However, a release is probably not in the cards, as Mark Purdy of The San Jose Mercury News writes. Purdy recently interviewed team owner Jed York at length, and York reaffirmed his belief in Kaepernick and expressed his hope that No. 7 is wearing a 49ers uniform next season. Plus, even if Kaepernick is still on the team’s roster on April 1, which would make his $11.9MM salary for 2016 fully guaranteed, San Francisco would still be able to trade him and at least get something in return, instead of releasing him prior to April 1 and netting no compensation.
- Of course, as Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk writes, York’s comments could simply be a thinly-veiled attempt to restore some leverage to the 49ers in their efforts to deal Kaepernick, leverage that they may need even more now that the Texans and Browns are reportedly not interested in making a deal for the disgruntled signal-caller.
- Mike Klis of 9News.com tweets that the Broncos and Miller still have a lot of work to do before Tuesday’s franchise tag deadline, but he says that talks are still ongoing and the implication is that both sides are hopeful that a long-term deal can be struck before Denver is forced to use the tag. As Troy E. Renck of The Denver Post reported several days ago, Miller is motivated to reach an accord, and the two sides are not terribly far apart in their negotiations.
- Antonio Cromartie might not be garnering many national headlines at this point, but Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets that the veteran cornerback, who was recently released by the Jets, is expected to meet with the Bills. Buffalo head coach Rex Ryan is reportedly interested in a reunion with Cromartie, who played under Ryan in New York from 2011-2013 and who earned Pro Bowl nods in 2012 and 2013.
- Although he does not not explicitly say that Doug Martin is likely to leave the Buccaneers, as a report suggested a few days ago, Rick Stroud of The Tampa Bay Times does confirm that Martin is likely to reach free agency.
Latest On Sam Bradford, Eagles
11:30am: Mike Garafolo of FOXSports writes that the Eagles upped their offer to Bradford during the team’s meetings with Condon last week. Although the terms of the offer remain unknown, sources indicate that the offer is “at the top of [Bradford’s] expected range on the open market and…should help get him under contract before that market opens on March 9.”
10:00am: In keeping with other reports we have heard this month, Jeff McLane of The Philadelphia Inquirer and colleague Bob Ford of The Philadelphia Inquirer confirm that the Eagles’ “Plan A” for the quarterback position is to re-sign Sam Bradford. However, the team is not committed to Bradford to the extent that it would be willing to use the franchise tag on him, leading Ford to write that Bradford would be welcomed back with open arms, but not necessarily an open wallet.
[RELATED: Negotiations between Eagles and Bradford are ongoing]
If Bradford does choose to test the free agent waters, McLane believes that he may not have as many suitors as he and his agent, Tom Condon, once thought. Indeed, McLane’s informal poll of league executives, coaches, scouts, and agents strongly suggested that Bradford will test the market only to realize that his best option will be to remain in Philadelphia. Negotiations between Bradford and the Eagles are still ongoing, but it remains unclear how much of a gap the two parties will need to bridge.
Ford, for his part, looks at some of the options Bradford could have if he and the Eagles are unable to strike a deal. The teams with both an unsettled quarterback situation and a significant amount of cap space include the Rams, Browns, and 49ers. There is no way Bradford returns to the Rams, the team that originally drafted him, and while the 49ers make some sense as a potential landing spot–assuming San Francisco parts ways with Colin Kaepernick–Ford is skeptical that Bradford would voluntarily sign up for “another chance to get killed in a Chip Kelly offense.” At this point, it is even harder to imagine a quarterback with any alternatives choosing to play for Cleveland.
Ford describes the Texans as having a tighter cap situation than the three above-referenced clubs, but Houston does have over $31MM in cap room, as Aaron Wilson of The Houston Chronicle writes. The Texans are looking for a fresh start at the quarterback position, and a competent quarterback like Bradford, along with the team’s excellent defense, could allow them to make a deep playoff run. As of now, though, the fit between Bradford and Houston is merely a speculative one.
Outside of those possible destinations, teams like Washington, the Broncos, and the Jets are currently engaged in mating dances with their own signal-callers, and if one or more of those negotiations break down, Bradford could have that many more suitors, but that does not seem especially likely at the moment.
As such, Bradford could, as McLane’s poll suggests, end up needing the Eagles. But Condon, of course, will also say the Eagles need Bradford. There are no “can’t-miss” quarterback prospects in the draft, and the free agent crop of QBs is predictably underwhelming. New head coach Doug Pederson has been touting free agent Chase Daniel as a starting-caliber player, but that may be as much a negotiating ploy as a legitimately-held belief (although Pederson, who coached Daniel in Kansas City, does appear to truly believe in Daniel’s skill-set).
McLane writes that the Eagles do have a backup plan if Bradford walks, which would likely be to use the team’s No. 13 overall pick on one of the consensus top three quarterbacks in the draft: Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, or Paxton Lynch (assuming, of course, one of them falls to the Eagles). And even if Bradford returns, the team is likely to use a late-round selection on a developmental project. But at the moment, it appears that Bradford and the Eagles will end up back together. The question is when that will happen, and at what price.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
East Notes: Eagles, Cousins, Jets
We recently rounded up the latest reports concerning Sam Bradford‘s status with the Eagles, so let’s dive into some more notes from the league’s east divisions, starting with more out of Philadelphia:
- The Eagles were the only team to avoid drafting an offensive lineman in the 2014 and 2015 drafts, but Zach Berman of The Philadelphia Inquirer expects that to change in 2016. Head coach Doug Pederson has spoken highly of this draft’s class of offensive linemen, and although the team could address its deficiencies along the O-line in free agency, Philadelphia is likely to use at least one of its nine draft choices on a guard or a tackle who could begin his career on the interior of the line.
- Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com examines the risks involved for Washington if the team were to offer a long-term deal to Kirk Cousins. Fitzgerald does not believe Washington should go higher than $15MM per year for Cousins, and he says that if the two sides cannot come to an agreement on a multi-year deal, the team should place the transition tag on its quarterback.
- Former Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum is now the Dolphins‘ executive vice president of football operations, and former Jets head coach Rex Ryan is now the Bills‘ head coach. As Brian Costello of The New York Post writes, that situation may be creating some additional leverage for impending Jets free agents like Damon Harrison who have ties to Ryan and Tannenbaum and who might have a landing spot in Buffalo or Miami if they do not get paid by New York.
- The Jets‘ plan remains to continue negotiating with Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the team is not interested in trading for Colin Kaepernick, according to Rich Cimini of ESPNNewYork.com.
- The Patriots are looking hard at running backs, both in the draft and in free agency, per Ben Volin of The Boston Globe. New England is typically loathe to spend more than $1MM on a running back, but Volin believes the team may splurge a bit on a veteran this year, considering how badly the Pats were handicapped by the lack of a running game in their loss to Denver in the AFC Championship Game.
- However, the Patriots will not dramatically alter their usual low-key approach to the offseason just because they do not have a first-round pick, according to Christopher Price of WEEI.com.