Extra Points: Vernon, Crosby, Bears, Draft
The fate of defensive end Olivier Vernon will shape how the Dolphins approach their offseason, writes Adam H. Beasley of the Miami Herald. The Dolphins have until Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET to place the franchise tag ($15.7MM) or transition tag ($12.7MM) on Vernon. But doing either of those things would make it especially difficult for them to keep fellow pass rusher Cameron Wake and running back Lamar Miller, which they want to do. If he hits the open market, Vernon could end up with a long-term deal in the range of $12MM to $14MM annually, per Beasley, who adds there’s an outside possibility Miami will slap the franchise tag on the 25-year-old and then trade him.
Here’s more from around the NFL:
- The Packers are unlikely to use the $4.572MM franchise tag on longtime kicker Mason Crosby, reports Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. As of last week, there was optimism the Packers and Crosby would agree on a contract and render the tag unnecessary. If that doesn’t happen by March 7, Crosby will be free to start negotiating with other teams.
- Even though he’s coming off a personal-best eight-sack season, the Bears could release edge rusher Lamarr Houston, one well-placed AFC executive told Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune. Cutting Houston would open up over $4MM of cap space for the Bears this year. When PFR’s Dallas Robinson previewed the Bears’ offseason earlier this month, he named Houston as a possibility for the chopping block.
- Ole Miss defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche has visits with 19 teams set up, according to Tony Pauline of WalterFootall.com. That number has increased from the 15 Pauline reported Sunday.
Extra Points: J. Smith, Strong, Packers, Cowboys
Typically, teams can get some deals done with their pending free agents between the franchise-tag deadline and the start of free agency, while they still have the right to exclusively negotiate with those players. Last year, for instance, players like Patriots safety Devin McCourty and Packers wideout Randall Cobb re-upped with their respective teams just before reaching the open market.
According to Ryan O’Halloran of the Florida Times-Union, however, Jaguars general manager Dave Caldwell doesn’t expect many players to fall into that category this year. Referring to free agents around the league, rather than just his own players, Caldwell suggested that if they’re not locked up by Tuesday’s franchise-tag deadline, they’ll likely hit the open market. While O’Halloran doesn’t go into detail on Caldwell’s thoughts on the issue, I imagine players will be eager to see what sort of offers are out there for them, now that so many clubs have so much cap space.
Let’s round up a few more odds and ends from around the NFL….
- Within his weekly MMQB column, Peter King provides a couple interesting draft-related notes, writing that at least one NFL GM remains bullish on injured Notre Dame linebacker Jaylon Smith (“No chance he won’t play at some point, and play well”) and reporting that NFL Network draft expert Daniel Jeremiah received at least one offer from an NFL team within the last two months to head up that club’s personnel department.
- Texans wide receiver Jaelen Strong was arrested late on Sunday night for possession of marijuana, tweets Jason Snavely of ABC15. The off-field incident will put Strong on the NFL’s radar for a violation of the league’s substance abuse policy, so discipline could be coming down the road.
- While Packers general manager Ted Thompson hasn’t publicly announced how long he plans to continue in his current role, team president/CEO Mark Murphy said at the combine in Indianapolis that he has an idea of how much longer Thompson will stick around, and Murphy has a succession plan in mind, writes Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com.
- As Jon Machota of the Dallas Morning News tweets, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is more confident about how to fortify the team’s running back spot than he is for some of Dallas’ holes on defense. “I can actually see ways and options at the running back [position] to get us in good shape,” Jones said. “I don’t actually see ways and have the name in place for the spot relative to the defense.”
- In his latest piece for The Baltimore Sun, Jeff Zrebiec explores the Ravens‘ potential options for the No. 6 overall pick in the draft, and writes that offensive tackle Eugene Monroe, a release candidate, still appears unlikely to return to Baltimore in 2016.
NFC North Rumors: Packers, Z. Miller, Kalil
According to Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com, word around this year’s scouting combine from agents and league personnel is that the Packers intend to go after more free agents than usual this offseason — especially veterans released by their previous teams, who won’t factor into the compensatory draft pick formula for next year.
“We’ll see how it shakes out,” head coach Mike McCarthy said on Thursday. “We might shock you this year.”
Green Bay, a draft-and-develop franchise, typically plays it fairly safe in free agency, making small additions here and there but mostly focusing on locking up the team’s own free agents. While a series of big splashes this year seems unlikely, it sounds like the Packers may foray into the open market in order to fill a couple holes.
Here’s more from around the NFC North:
- The Bears would like to re-sign veteran tight end Zach Miller, but will likely let him test the free agent market to get a better sense of what he’s worth, as Jeff Dickerson of ESPN.com details. “What happens at this stage in the game is you understand the reality that a lot of times these guys have to hit the open market to set their value,” GM Ryan Pace said. “We like Zach, I don’t want to go through every one of our unrestricted free agents, but he’s a guy we’d want back and we’re negotiating with him.”
- Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News (Twitter link) hears that the Vikings want to keep offensive tackle Phil Loadholt in 2016, but would like to lower his cap number, which is currently $7.75MM. Per Wolfson, a meeting on the Loadholt front took place last night at the combine.
- As the Vikings look to retain Loadholt, they’re “torn” on tackle Matt Kalil, according to Wolfson (via Twitter). A former fourth overall pick, Kalil hasn’t necessarily lived up to his billing so far and has an $11MM cap number for 2016. But he has also never missed a regular-season start in his four NFL seasons, so Minnesota would have a hole to fill if the team were to let him go.
Combine Updates: Packers, Colts, Rams
The scouting combine continues today in Indianapolis, and so have the press conferences and media scrums with head coaches and general managers around the NFL.
Here are some highlights from a few of those conversations, sorted by team:
Green Bay Packers:
- Despite the fact that the Packers aren’t generally major players in free agency, GM Ted Thompson said his team isn’t averse to exploring the market. With that in mind, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (Twitter link) says Green Bay will likely be in the mix for a complementary wide receiver.
- Asked whether Thompson listens to him if he wants a certain player, Packers coach Mike McCarthy said, “Everybody wants something. Someone has to say no. That’s why you have a chain of command. Someone has to be the bad guy” (link via Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com).
- McCarthy also said today that he’s “disappointed” in Mike Pennel‘s four-game suspension, according to Demovsky. “Mike’s one of our guys, but we’ll see him through this,” McCarthy said. “He’s a young player who really came on in the second half of the season.”
Indianapolis Colts:
- Colts head coach Chuck Pagano didn’t go into specifics on personnel moves today, but he didn’t pull punches when discussing the team’s pass rush, tweets Stephen Holder of ESPN.com. Pagano conveyed that it hasn’t been good enough, and needs to be upgraded.
- GM Ryan Grigson also weighed in on the idea of adding pass rushers, suggesting that the draft isn’t as deep at that spot as he’d like, and acknowledging that there will be some financial constraints in free agency (Twitter link via Holder).
- Asked about Andrew Luck‘s potential contract extension, Grigson said today that the team has yet to open negotiations, “but that will probably happen soon” (link via Holder). While he declined to discuss specific numbers, the GM expressed confidence that there would be no issues holding up talks.
Los Angeles Rams:
- The Rams’ top priority right now is re-signing the team’s many free agent defensive backs, GM Les Snead said today, per Andrew Siciliano of the NFL Network (via Twitter). Cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson, along with safety Rodney McLeod, are eligible to hit the market in March.
- The Rams released three veteran players last week to create cap room, but the team is planning to keep offensive lineman Rodger Saffold on its roster, according to Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com (Twitter link).
- Snead made it clear today that, in addition to addressing this year’s free agents, the Rams are also hoping to lock up key extension candidates, including defensive tackle Michael Brockers and linebacker Alec Ogletree (Twitter link via Wagoner).
NFLPA Announces Cap Carryover Amounts
The NFL Players Association issued a press release today announcing the salary cap carryover amounts for all 32 NFL teams for the 2016 season. The official salary cap amount for 2016 has yet to be announced by the league, but it’s expected to be in the neighborhood of $155MM+. When that figures becomes official, it can be added to each team’s carryover amount to determine that club’s official cap for 2016.
According to the press release, the Broncos, Rams, and the Saints are the only teams that opted not to carry over the full amount available to them, though none of those clubs are believed to have left significant amounts on the table.
Here are the salary cap carryover amounts for 2016, per the NFLPA, from highest to lowest:
- Jacksonville Jaguars: $32,774,928
- Tennessee Titans: $20,783,801
- Cleveland Browns: $20,734,144
- Oakland Raiders: $13,373,617
- San Francisco 49ers: $12,206,686
- New York Giants: $11,193,231
- Miami Dolphins: $9,137,544
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: $7,987,748
- Cincinnati Bengals: $7,587,902
- Philadelphia Eagles: $7,255,362
- Green Bay Packers: $6,953,847
- Washington: $5,837,734
- Indianapolis Colts: $4,950,629
- Buffalo Bills: $4,467,331
- Atlanta Falcons: $3,905,771
- Carolina Panthers: $3,731,200
- Dallas Cowboys: $3,571,239
- Denver Broncos: $3,300,000
- Arizona Cardinals: $3,031,663
- Pittsburgh Steelers: $3,000,327
- Kansas City Chiefs: $2,622,838
- New York Jets: $2,484,216
- San Diego Chargers: $2,287,176
- Minnesota Vikings: $2,090,409
- Houston Texans: $1,637,055
- Baltimore Ravens: $1,633,944
- New Orleans Saints: $1,400,000
- New England Patriots: $1,347,882
- Los Angeles Rams: $933,521
- Chicago Bears: $867,589
- Detroit Lions: $862,191
- Seattle Seahawks: $11,587
Packers Expect To Re-Sign Mason Crosby
The Packers have been engaged in “regular talks” with agent Mike McCartney, the rep for Mason Crosby, according to Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com, who reports that the team expects to get a deal done with its kicker without using the franchise tag.
[RELATED: Packers sign Letroy Guion to extension]
Crosby, 31, has been kicking for the Packers since the 2007 season, making 79.7% of hie field goals over the course of those nine seasons. He has been even better in recent years, making at least 85% of his kicks in three of his last five seasons. In 2015, he converted 24 of 28 field goal tries (85.7%), and didn’t miss any longer extra-point attempts.
The Packers don’t have any position players who look like viable candidates for the franchise or transition tag, so it makes sense that Crosby would be the only real option. If Green Bay did franchise him, it would probably cost the team in excess of $4.5MM for 2016 — a high price for a kicker, but not exorbitant for a one-year deal.
Based on Demovsky’s report, though, it sounds as if the Packers are optimistic they’ll work out a longer-term agreement with Crosby. If they get something done, the per-year salary will likely be more modest, but the total guarantee could match or exceed that $4.5MM+ franchise-tag amount.
In other Packers news, Demovsky writes that Brian Murphy, B.J. Raji‘s agent, said he met with Packers chief negotiator Russ Ball this week about a new deal for his client — nothing is imminent at this point, but there’s mutual interest between the two sides.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Randy Gregory Suspended Four Games
Cowboys edge defender Randy Gregory has been suspended for the first four games of the 2016 NFL season for violating the league’s policy on substances of abuse, reports Tom Pelissero of USA Today (via Twitter). Gregory will be eligible to return for Dallas’ fifth regular-season game.
Gregory, 23, didn’t see a ton of action during his first NFL season — he was slowed by an early-season ankle sprain and ended up recording 11 tackles over the course of 250 defensive snaps. Viewed as a surefire first-round pick – and a potential top-10 selection – based on talent, Gregory slipped in last year’s draft to 60th overall, where he was snatched up by the Cowboys. Off-field concerns, including a failed drug test at the combine, contributed to his slide.
While Gregory didn’t make any off-field headlines during his first year in Dallas, he has apparently failed several drug tests, as Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets. Rapoport points out that the NFL’s drug policy calls for a two-game fine and then a four-game fine before a player is suspended.
With Gregory set to miss the first quarter of the season and Greg Hardy potentially departing in free agency, the Cowboys figure to be in the market for pass-rushing help this offseason, in free agency and/or the draft.
In addition to Gregory, another defender, Packers defensive tackle Mike Pennel, also received a four-game ban for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, tweets Jason Wilde of ESPN.com.
Pennel, 24, started five games for the Packers last season, recording 24 tackles, a sack, and a fumble recovery on the year. Like Gregory, he won’t be eligible to return to action until the fifth game of his club’s regular-season schedule.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
NFC Notes: Cowboys, Lynch, 49ers, Packers
There will be no intrigue or drama when it comes to the Cowboys‘ potential use of the franchise tag. Executive VP Stephen Jones announced Tuesday that the team won’t be using its franchise or transition tag, per David Moore of the Dallas Morning News. While Jones’ announcement is somewhat unusual, it’s not surprising — when Luke Adams examined potential 2016 franchise tag candidates on Monday, he didn’t mention a single Cowboy, even as a long shot.
Here’s more from the NFC:
- If Marshawn Lynch goes through with his retirement, he’ll owe the the Seahawks the $5MM signing bonus from the contract he signed last offseason. However, the team won’t ask for that money back, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (Twitter link).
- Within a look at the 49ers‘ offensive line situation, Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com writes that there’s no timetable for offensive tackle Anthony Davis to file for reinstatement from the NFL’s reserve/retired list. There’s a belief that Davis will return to the Niners after taking a year away from the game. But even if he does, it shouldn’t affect the team’s offseason plan at the position much, as Maiocco notes there’s no guarantee Davis will return at the same level.
- The Packers have officially announced some changes to their coaching staff, according to ESPN.com’s Rob Demovsky, who writes that they’ve hired Ben Sirmans as running backs coach, Brian Angelichio as tight ends coach, and Ejiro Evero as defensive quality control assistant. Sirmans, previously with the Rams, will replace Sam Gash. Angelichio, who was last with the Browns, will take over for Jerry Fontenot.
- Demovsky has a year-by-year breakdown of Letroy Guion‘s new contract with the Packers. The deal is heavy on bonus money with $50K in per-game roster bonuses plus another $1.7MM in roster and workout bonuses. Last season, Guion played under a one-year, $2.75MM pact.
Connor Byrne contributed to this post.
NFC North Notes: Lions, Bears, Guion
The Lions and Bears each formally announced additions to their coaching staff today, with Detroit naming a new quarterbacks coach and Chicago confirming a new wide receivers coach.
As previously reported, the Lions’ new QBs coach is Brian Callahan, who spent the last six seasons with the Broncos, and has previously worked with Detroit offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter. In 2015, Callahan was an offensive assistant in Denver, playing a part in coaching the club’s QBs.
As for the Bears, their new wide receivers coach is Curtis Johnson, who had been Tulane’s head coach for the past four seasons after serving as the WRs coach for the Saints from 2006 to 2011. Joining Johnson in Chicago is Ben McDaniels, whose hiring was also reported last Friday. Josh McDaniels‘ brother officially joins the Bears as an offensive assistant.
Here’s more from around the NFC North:
- According to Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Twitter link), Letroy Guion‘s new contract with the Packers features a modest $500K signing bonus. Silverstein adds that the deal includes “$1.5MM more later,” though it’s not clear if that refers to a signing bonus or his 2016 salary. Friday reports indicated the three-year pact is worth a total of $11.25MM.
- Having locked up two key defensive players – Mike Daniels and Guion – who would have been eligible for free agency this winter, the Packers‘ next priority may be a special-teamer, according to Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com, who examines kicker Mason Crosby‘s impending free agency.
- Jeff Dickerson of ESPN.com explores the possibility of cornerback Tracy Porter re-signing with the Bears for the 2016 season after a strong 2015 campaign.
2016 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates
On Tuesday, February 16th, NFL teams will be able to place franchise and transition tags on potential free agents for the first time. While the window for franchise tags opens at that point, most clubs won’t actually tag any players right away.
As our list of important dates for the 2016 offseason shows, the deadline for teams to assign those franchise and transition tags comes two weeks later, on Tuesday, March 1st. Generally when it comes to NFL contract discussions, deadlines spur action, so teams will likely wait until closer to that March deadline to officially use franchise tags, once it becomes clear that they won’t be able to strike a longer-term deal yet with their respective free-agents-to-be.
Even though the action might not heat up for a couple more weeks, it’s worth taking a closer look at what to expect during 2016’s franchise tag period. We don’t know yet what the exact salary amounts for franchise tags will be, since the NFL has yet to announce the salary cap figure for the coming year. But back in November, former agent Joel Corry of CBSSports.com projected the 2016 franchise tag salaries, based on a presumed cap of $154MM. Here are the non-exclusive franchise tag amounts projected by Corry:
- Quarterback: $19.748MM
- Running back: $11.871MM
- Wide receiver: $14.527MM
- Tight end: $9.053MM
- Offensive line: $13.678MM
- Defensive end: $15.494MM
- Defensive tackle: $13.368MM
- Linebacker: $14.131MM
- Cornerback: $13.838MM
- Safety: $10.717MM
- Punter/kicker: $4.534MM
Those numbers are unlikely to be 100% accurate, but the actual figures won’t be drastically different, so we can use them as points of reference when considering which players are candidates to be franchised in 2016.
For a refresher on the characteristics of the exclusive and non-exclusive franchise tags, as well as the transition tag, be sure to check out PFR’s glossary entry on the subject. Once you’re up to speed, let’s dive in and take a look at the most likely candidates to be tagged, along with several more outside possibilities….
Virtual locks:
Broncos pass rusher Von Miller was viewed as the top player in this year’s group of potential free agents even before he terrorized Cam Newton in Santa Clara and earned Super Bowl MVP honors. Now, there’s no doubt that Denver will do all it can to retain the former second overall pick. The only questions for Miller are whether he’ll reach a long-term deal with the Broncos before the club needs to franchise him, and whether he’d get the exclusive or non-exclusive tag.
Panthers cornerback Josh Norman didn’t make the same impact in Super Bowl 50 that Miller did, but Carolina still seems likely to franchise him to avoid letting him hit the open market. The franchise tag for cornerbacks is projected to be worth nearly $14MM, but the Panthers are in better cap shape than they have been in recent years, and can afford to take the hit.
Meanwhile, it has been a few years since a quarterback was franchised, but Washington signal-caller Kirk Cousins is a strong candidate. Reports have indicated the team won’t let him get away, but the two sides apparently aren’t close to a multiyear agreement, which makes the franchise tag the most logical option at this point.
Strong candidates:
A year or two ago, Bears receiver Alshon Jeffery would have been a no-brainer candidate for the franchise tag. However, 2015 was an up-and-down season for Jeffery, who only played in nine games due to injury issues. When he did play, Jeffery was excellent, averaging a career-high 89.7 yards per game, and few teams have more projected cap room this offseason than Chicago, so it seems unlikely that the team would let the wideout get away — especially given how weak the market for receivers is this year, outside of Jeffery.
The Jets are facing an interesting predicament on their defensive line with Damon Harrison and Muhammad Wilkerson eligible for free agency this winter. Harrison isn’t a franchise tag candidate, and the Jets could conceivably re-sign him at a reasonable price, then move forward with a defensive line of Harrison, Sheldon Richardson, and Leonard Williams. However, letting an asset like Wilkerson get away for nothing isn’t great business, which is why he has been viewed as an intriguing tag-and-trade candidate for New York.
Elsewhere in the AFC East, the Bills and Dolphins don’t have a ton of cap flexibility, which could affect their decisions on offensive tackle Cordy Glenn and defensive end Olivier Vernon, respectively. There are ways for Buffalo and Miami to create the space necessary to tag their free-agents-to-be, but 
both teams already have plenty of highly-paid veterans on their books, so the decisions aren’t no-brainers. I think Glenn, at least, is slightly more likely than not to be tagged, but both players could conceivably reach the open market.
Safety Eric Berry had a tremendous comeback season in 2015, and it would put something of a damper on that story for the Chiefs to allow him to sign elsewhere next month. A $10MM+ price tag for a safety isn’t cheap, but it’s a more affordable tag than most positions, so I think Kansas City will have to strongly consider using it if the team can’t agree on a longer-term contract with Berry. As last year’s negotiations with Justin Houston showed, the Chiefs aren’t afraid to franchise a player, then work out a multiyear pact with him later in the offseason.
One position that’s significantly cheaper than safety is kicker, where Corry projects a salary in the $4.5MM range. The Ravens and Justin Tucker have reportedly been negotiating a potential extension for over a year, but with the franchise deadline approaching, the team isn’t afraid to use a tag on Tucker, if it comes to that.
Long shots:
The Jets want to extend Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Eagles have spoken highly of Sam Bradford, but it appears unlikely that either quarterback will get franchised. At least one report has indicated that the Eagles aren’t expected to use their franchise tag to retain Bradford, and a price tag of nearly $20MM seems too high for Fitzpatrick.
Like Fitzpatrick, Buccaneers running back Doug Martin is a player whose team badly wants to re-sign him, but may view the franchise tag salary as too high. For running backs, the tag could be worth nearly $12MM, which would make Martin the second-highest-paid RB in the NFL – behind Adrian Peterson – by a comfortable margin. For a player who has been as inconsistent as Martin, that seems excessive.
A handful of offensive linemen are possible candidates to be tagged by their respective teams, including Kelechi Osemele (Ravens), Russell Okung (Seahawks), Mitchell Schwartz (Browns), Kelvin Beachum (Steelers), and Andre Smith (Bengals). However, I’d be a little surprised if even one of those five got the franchise tag. Since there’s only one price tag for all offensive linemen, the projected salary ($13.678MM) is left-tackle money, and Osemele, Schwartz, and Smith haven’t seen much – if any – playing time at left tackle. As for Okung and Beachum, I’m skeptical that their teams will want to invest too heavily in them, since they haven’t been consistently healthy and elite in recent years.
If the Broncos strike a long-term deal with Miller soon, it would free up the franchise tag for quarterback Brock Osweiler or defensive end Malik Jackson. Even in the unlikely event that Miller and the Broncos agree to terms quickly though, the franchise salaries for Osweiler and Jackson may be a little too high.
Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul got the franchise tag last year, but it’ll be pricier this season, and obviously there are more question marks this time around, given the state of his right hand. As such, I don’t think he’s a real candidate to be tagged, despite New York’s significant cap space. Bengals safety Reggie Nelson seems like a similar long-shot — he had another good season in 2015, earning his first Pro Bowl nod, but it would be surprising to see a team commit $10MM+ to a 33-year-old safety.
Finally, Tucker isn’t the only kicker or punter who has a shot to be tagged. Jaguars punter Bryan Anger, Raiders punter Marquette King, and Packers kicker Mason Crosby are among the other special teams candidates. They’re all less likely than Tucker to be franchised, but the Jags and Raiders have the most cap room in the NFL, so they could certainly afford it.