Poll: Which Top 10 Pick Has The Highest Bust Potential?
The NFL Draft is just barely in the rear view mirror, which means that teams are full of hope for their young rookies. But, of course, the NFL Draft is largely a crapshoot, and not every player will realize their full potential. 
This year’s draft had talent, but lacked a true consensus on the top player. Many evaluators pegged defensive end Nick Bosa as the player with the highest ceiling in the 2019 class, but other saw Alabama’s Quinnen Williams as the “safest bet.” The 49ers pounced on Bosa with the No. 2 pick while the Jets (and former GM Mike Maccagnan) were delighted to land Williams at No. 3 overall.
Leading up to the draft, much of the attention was on Oklahoma quarterback (and one-time MLB hopeful) Kyler Murray. When Murray announced that he would ditch the Oakland A’s, his stock exploded – Murray was considered a borderline first-round prospect in the winter, but wound up as the Cardinals’ choice at No. 1 overall. Murray has the speed that teams crave at the QB position, but questions persist about his size and overall lack of experience as a full-time starter.
The Cardinals’ long flirtation with Murray brought us the expected result, but the Raiders gave us the real first shock of the draft when they tapped Clemson defensive end Clelin Ferrell at No. 4 overall. Not to be outdone, the Giants snagged Duke’s Daniel Jones at No. 6 overall. Heading into the draft, neither player was thought to be anywhere near Top 10 consideration, but Mike Mayock and Dave Gettleman were unwilling to trade down and risk losing out on their guys.
The domino effect created by those picks allowed the Bucs to grab inside linebacker Devin White (No. 5 overall), the Jaguars to land outside linebacker Josh Allen (No. 6), the Lions to snag top tight end T.J. Hockenson, the Bills to draft defensive tackle Ed Oliver (No. 9 overall), and the Steelers to finish out the Top 10 with linebacker Devin Bush. Most of those picks were warmly received, but nothing is certain in the draft.
Which Top 10 pick do you think has the highest bust potential? Click below to cast your vote (link for app users) and back up your choice in the comment section.
This Date In Transactions History: Michael Vick
On this date in 2009, the Falcons moved on from the biggest star in the history of their franchise. After unsuccessful attempts to trade Michael Vick, the Falcons cut finally ties with the quarterback. 
With the ability to run as well as he could throw, Vick was one of the brightest young stars in the NFL. In six seasons, he earned three Pro Bowl nominations and led the Falcons to the NFC championship game twice. The first go-round in 2002 snapped a four-year playoff drought in Atlanta.
The trajectory of Vick’s career and the entire Falcons franchise changed in 2007 when Vick was indicted for his role in the Bad Newz Kennels dog fighting ring. The Falcons pretty much made up their minds on Vick after the quarterback was sentenced to nearly two years in prison, but there were paperwork and cap issues to sort out. The Falcons successfully recovered ~$20MM of Vick’s $37MM signing bonus in ’07, but it wasn’t until the summer of ’09 that they formally terminated his nine-year deal which had the potential to be worth as much as $130MM.
The Falcons were able to move on from the Vick era after selecting Matt Ryan with the third overall pick in the 2008 draft. Vick, meanwhile, managed a second act in the NFL after landing with the Eagles. He was signed to be Donovan McNabb‘s backup in 2009, but he wound up as the team’s starting QB in 2010 after McNabb was traded and Kevin Kolb suffered a concussion. Vick went on to take the Eagles to the playoffs and eventually sign a six-year, $100MM extension with Philly.
Vick’s subsequent stints with the Jets and Steelers were less remarkable and he was unable to find an NFL home in 2016. In the summer of 2017 – on the eight-year anniversary of his release from Atlanta – Vick retired after signing a ceremonial contract with the Falcons.
This Date In Transactions History: Dolphins Sign Chad Johnson
In the summer of 2012, the Dolphins were less-than-enamored with their options at wide receiver. The Dolphins had just recently traded Brandon Marshall – fresh off of his fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season – to the Bears for a pair of third-round picks. Then, in the draft, they did not select a wide receiver until the sixth round.
‘‘You would like to have some players make it easy and distinguish themselves, maybe make the picture a little bit clearer,’’ head coach Joe Philbin said (via The Boston Globe). ‘‘We have to catch the ball more consistently at every position on offense, because it is not quite where it needs to be.’’
After missing out on the first and second wave of free agent wide receivers, the Dolphins placed a call to Drew Rosenhaus to inquire on Chad Ochocinco (née Chad Johnson). On June 11, 2012, the Dolphins inked the eccentric veteran to a one-year deal.
Ochocinco’s career credentials were as impressive as his touchdown celebrations were inventive. To that point, he had 766 catches for 11,059 yards and 67 touchdowns, six Pro Bowl nods, and two First-Team All-Pro selections.
However, the receiver’s best days were spent with the Bengals and he looked like a shell of his former self with the Patriots in the 2011 season. In his lone campaign with New England, Johnson had just 15 catches for 276 yards and one touchdown and was targeted just 32 times in total. Johnson clearly didn’t mesh with the Patriots’ offense and he didn’t impress in his two intra-divisional games against the Dolphins either. Against Miami, he had just one catch in each of those two games.
Ochocinco – who changed his name back to Johnson shortly after signing with Miami – didn’t mesh with Philbin and the rest of the staff. The melding of personalities turned out to be the least of his issues. In August, Johnson was arrested on domestic battery charges. Johnson proclaimed his innocence, but the Dolphins released him the very next day. Thanks to “Hard Knocks,” we have video of Philbin’s final conversation with Johnson.
Johnson’s deal with the Dolphins up being his final NFL contract. Johnson went on to play for the CFL’s Montreal Alouettes in 2014 and was suspended for the 2015 season when he skipped mandatory practices. He re-emerged in 2017 to play in a single game for the Monterrey Fundidores of the Liga de Fútbol Americano Profesional de México, where he scored on a 41-yard touchdown reception in the Fundidores’ winning effort.
5 Key Stories: 6/2/19 – 6/9/19
Eagles make major investment: Carson Wentz became the first of the 2016 draftees-turned-franchise quarterbacks to sign an extension. The former No. 2 overall pick agreed to a four-year, $128MM (in new money) re-up that came with more than $100MM in guarantees and $66MM in full guarantees. The $32MM-per-year average and full guarantee figure placed Wentz in the top five among QBs, and the total guaranteed amount (which includes injury guarantees) is believed to be the most in NFL history. The Eagles are gambling on a quarterback who has finished the past two seasons injured, but Wentz’s 2017 season (and some aspects of his ’18 work) showed immense potential. The fallout from this deal has impacted the Cowboys and Rams, the other teams using 2016 QB picks as starters.
Texans abandon GM after one season: We have yet to hear much in the way of reasoning for Brian Gaine‘s ouster, but the defending AFC South champions cut bait in Year 2 of a five-year contract. Gaine, who had previously worked as a Texans exec under Rick Smith, oversaw an 11-5 season in 2018. It’s possible a lack of movement on the Jadeveon Clowney front contributed to this. Regardless, the Texans are moving on their GM search. Former Browns GM Ray Farmer and ex-Lions GM Martin Mayhew are the first candidates. But the franchise’s top choice appears to be longtime Patriots exec Nick Caserio, who worked with Bill O’Brien at one point.
Hours later, Jets make their choice: The Texans tried to interview Joe Douglas during their 2018 GM search. Shortly after their job became available again, the Jets landed their top choice. Long their preferred option, Douglas did not make it easy on them. The Jets reportedly doubled their initial salary offer, after Douglas declined them multiple times. They also look to have attempted to assuage his concerns about their ownership situation by doing a six-year deal. While Daniel Jeremiah will not be joining Douglas’ staff, another longtime analyst — ESPN’s Todd McShay — is in the mix.
Trent Williams unhappy with Redskins: At first, the 10th-year tackle was believed to be staying away from his team because of dissatisfaction with his through-2020 contract. Then, a more ominous report emerged indicating Williams wanted to leave the Redskins because of their handling of his recent medical procedure. It is possible both reasons are at the root of his absence, with the financial component not to be dismissed here. Either way, a seven-time Pro Bowler is at odds with his team — one that did not make notable offseason investments at tackle.
Gerald McCoy makes his decision: After three visits, the six-time Pro Bowler opted to remain in the NFC South. McCoy chose the Panthers and will face the Buccaneers twice this season. The 31-year-old lineman received a one-year, $8MM deal from Carolina. This may or may not have been the best offer. Only $4MM of the Panthers’ proposal was guaranteed, while the Ravens may have offered $8MM in guarantees. The Browns also viewed McCoy as an $8MM-per-year player — after the Bucs removed his $13MM 2019 cap number from their payroll — but “weren’t touching” the $10.25MM McCoy could receive via incentives.
PFR Originals: 6/2/19 – 6/9/19
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- This morning, Rory Parks examined the situation of the Cowboys and Dak Prescott. We heard yesterday that the two sides were still far apart in extension talks, and the matter is slightly more pressing for Prescott than it is for other members of his draft class. While 2016 quarterbacks like Jared Goff and Carson Wentz had fifth-year options in their contracts to keep them under control through 2020, Prescott will be a free agent after this season. Rory took a look at where everything stands, and why Prescott still hasn’t been wrapped up.
- As part of our ‘this date in transactions history’ series, Zach Links took a look at the 2010 trade that sent Isaac Bruce from the 49ers back to the Rams. The legendary receiver was traded back to the Rams so he could retire as a member of the team that drafted him. Bruce had an incredible 16 years in the NFL and the Rams have his number 80 retired, but he was recently denied entry into the Hall of Fame for the third time.
- Perhaps the biggest news of the past week was Wentz signing a massive extension with the Eagles. Debates quickly sprung up about whether the Eagles were wise to give him the deal that they did considering his injury history. Our Zach Links asked readers in a poll whether or not Philly would come to regret the deal, and voters decidedly said yes. As of this writing, ‘yes’ is winning with just over 62 percent of the vote. Wentz got around $107 million guaranteed in the deal, a massive sum.
- Every year surprise teams get good out of nowhere, and teams with lofty expectations collapse. To that end, Dallas Robinson asked readers in a poll which team that came in first place last year is likeliest to miss the playoffs in 2019. The Ravens won with a solid plurality, getting over 34 percent of the vote. The Cowboys came in second with 22.8 percent.
- Zach also took a look at where teams stood in signing their draft picks. As of a few days ago, eight teams had wrapped up their entire draft class. You can see the contract status of every pick by using PFR’s tracker.
- In another installment of our ‘this date in transactions history’ series, Zach examined the Chiefs’ decision to release Jeremy Maclin in 2017. It was a shocking move at the time, as he was only 29 and projected to enter the season as Kansas City’s top wideout. The five-year, $55MM deal he signed with the Chiefs never worked out, and Maclin announced his retirement back in March.
- In another issue of the ‘this date in transactions history’ series, Sam Robinson looked back on the five-year extension the Panthers gave Cam Newton in 2015. Given the way quarterback contracts exploded in the following years, the Panthers got a very team-friendly deal, as Newton signed for five-years and $103.8MM. Newton is recovering from another shoulder surgery this offseason, and has a big year ahead of him. If he can prove he’s healthy in 2019, he should be in line for another extension next year. His current deal runs through the 2020 season.
The Curious Case Of Dak Prescott
We learned yesterday that the Cowboys and Dak Prescott are still far apart in their extension talks, and the relationship between player and team could become strained if this situation drags out into the regular season. Prescott’s base pay jumps from $630K in 2018 to just over $2MM in 2019, which is a tidy raise, but still far below market value for a three-year starter, two-time Pro Bowler, and former Rookie of the Year who has quarterbacked his team to two playoff berths.
But while the resume that Prescott has put together during his brief time in the league is quite impressive, there is still plenty of skepticism as to whether he will continue on an upward trajectory or if he will settle in as a decidedly above-average quarterback that needs a strong supporting cast to succeed. It is telling that both of Prescott’s Pro Bowl nods (2016, 2018) came when star running back Ezekiel Elliott led the league in rushing, and even with a productive Zeke, Prescott wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire in 2018 before the arrival of Amari Cooper helped to spark the offense.
At the same time, it’s unfair to expect any quarterback to thrive without surrounding him with talent at the skill positions and on the offensive line. The adage that suggests a good QB should make his teammates better is often overused and only true to a certain extent. You can’t, after all, get blood out of a stone, and asking your signal-caller to consistently elevate a collection of mediocre players is not a workable strategy.
Prescott is undoubtedly eyeing the massive extension that Carson Wentz just landed from the division rival Eagles and wondering why Dallas can’t offer him that kind of cash. Prescott may never be the type of player to throw for over 30 TDs a season, but he has been nothing but durable during his first three years in the league, which Wentz certainly cannot say. For what it’s worth, Spotrac pegs Prescott’s market value at $29.4MM per year, not too far south of Wentz’ new pact, which carries an AAV of $32MM.
Yesterday’s report indicated that negotiations could last until at least training camp, and obviously both sides are motivated to get something done. Unlike Wentz, Prescott’s earnings potential would likely take a major hit if he were to sustain some sort of significant injury, and the Cowboys have several other contracts to address (including those of Cooper and Elliott).
There is a lot of work to do, especially for a team that knows all too well the constraints of a roster that offers little salary cap flexibility. It would still come as a shock if Prescott plays for anyone other than the Cowboys for the foreseeable future, but until a new deal is signed, there will be room for doubt.
This Date In Transactions History: Issac Bruce
On this date in 2010, the 49ers shipped Issac Bruce to the Rams. However, this wasn’t an ordinary trade. The deal was facilitated in order to allow Bruce, 37 at the time, to retire with his original franchise. 
Bruce started his career with the Rams in 1994, the team’s final season in Los Angeles. The second-round pick played sparingly as a rookie, but he broke out as an NFL sophomore in St. Louis with 119 catches, 1,781 yards, and 13 touchdowns, all of which went down as his career bests. In his 14 illustrious years with the Rams, Bruce amassed four Pro Bowl trips and eclipsed 1,000 yards receiving in eight different seasons.
“Sixteen years was enough for me,” Bruce said at his farewell press conference. “I think a lot was done. But that second training camp practice (in two-a-days) may have played a part in it. I was ready to move on and do something else other than playing football.”
After so many productive seasons in the NFL, Bruce had little left to prove. Bruce was the leading wide receiver in the Rams’ “Greatest Show On Turf” Super Bowl-winning season and left the team as its all-time receiving leader with 14,109 yards. His second act with the Niners was not quite as flashy with 835 yards in his first SF season and 264 yards in his 2009 finale.
“The two years I was away, I kept tabs on this organization,” Bruce said. “I played against this organization, I played against its players. The funny thing is I found myself encouraging them when things didn’t look bright for them. I looked down and saw myself in a different colored uniform. It was honestly just to me personally — it just wasn’t right.”
So, with the trade, Bruce returned back to the Rams and became the last member of the Rams’ first Los Angeles run to hang ’em up. Later, his No. 80 jersey was retired by the team.
Bruce was denied entry into the Pro Football Hall of Fame for the third time in 2019, but he remains a candidate for induction down the road.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Poll: Will Eagles Regret Carson Wentz Deal?
On Thursday night, the Eagles and Carson Wentz reached agreement on a massive new contract. The four-year add-on is worth $128MM in total with upwards of $107MM in overall guarantees. Meanwhile, Wentz reportedly gets $66MM guaranteed at signing, a huge haul for a player who has finished the last two seasons on IR. 
Wentz nearly captured the league’s MVP trophy in 2017 before a season-ending ACL tear sidelined him and cleared the way for Nick Foles‘ legendary run to the Super Bowl. It was a similar story (albeit with a different ending) in 2018 – Wentz managed to throw for 21 touchdowns against seven interceptions in eleven games last year, but a back injury forced him to cede the starting role to Foles once again.
Wentz’ injury history is cause for concern, but the Eagles have doubled down with this colossal new deal. The club no longer has Foles as a safety net and Wentz, the former No. 2 overall pick in the NFL Draft, is now the first QB in the NFL signed through the 2024 season.
Of course, the market for top-end quarterbacks advances rapidly, so Wentz’s $32MM average annual value might not seem like a big deal by the time he enters Year Two of the extension. And, if Wentz returns to MVP-level form, it will prove to be a rather reasonable contract for the Eagles.
Ultimately, do you see this deal backfiring for Howie Roseman & Co.? Cast your vote below (link for app users) and back up your choice in the comment section.
Poll: Which 2018 First Place Team Is Likeliest To Miss Playoffs In 2019?
In 2018, three first-place teams from the previous season did not earn postseason berths. Those clubs — the Steelers, Jaguars, and Vikings — each missed the playoffs for different reasons. Injuries, poor luck, off-field issues, and plain old regression to the mean all contributed in certain instances, and 2019 doesn’t figure to be any different for the 2018 first-place teams.
We’ve already asked PFR readers which 2018 last place team is likeliest to make the postseason in 2019 (the Jaguars were the top choice). Today, we’ll flip that question: which 2018 first place club is going to miss the playoffs during the upcoming campaign?
Let’s take an overview of the teams:
New England Patriots
You don’t need me to tell you the Patriots have dominated the AFC East for the better part of two decades. They’ve won 10 consecutive division titles, and have finished first in 16 of the last 18 campaigns. New England is still considered the favorites to win the 2020 Super Bowl, despite losing players like Rob Gronkowski, Trey Flowers, Trent Brown, and Malcom Brown during the offseason. While the Jets and Bills have each improved and built around young quarterbacks, the AFC East is still unquestionably the Patriots’ to lose.
Baltimore Ravens
After turning over their offense to rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson against the Bengals in Week 11, the Ravens managed to rebound from a 4-5 start to win six of their final seven games, edging out the Steelers for the AFC North crown in the process. Pittsburgh should still contend in 2019 despite trading Antonio Brown and allowing Le’Veon Bell to walk in free agency, but Baltimore’s real competition is the Browns, who are now favored to win the division after adding Odell Beckham Jr., Olivier Vernon, Sheldon Richardson, and others over the past several months.
Houston Texans
The Texans have quietly won the AFC South in three of the past four seasons under head coach Bill O’Brien, but their path will be extremely difficult next season. The Colts are building for long-term success and are the division favorites in 2019, while the Jaguars and Titans could also be in the running. Wide receiver Will Fuller‘s return from a torn ACL should help quarterback Deshaun Watson, but if the third-year signal-caller can’t stay upright behind what is still a sub-par offensive line, Houston may not have a chance.
Kansas City Chiefs
After nearly advancing to the Super Bowl a season ago, the Chiefs enter the 2019 season with change in the air. Not only did Kansas City make two separate franchise edge defender trades (shipping Dee Ford to the 49ers while acquiring Frank Clark from the Seahawks), it also added key defensive players like Tyrann Mathieu, Emmanuel Ogbah, and Alex Okafor. The Chiefs’ biggest outstanding question, of course, revolves around wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who is still being investigated after being accused of child abuse. At present, it’s unclear if Hill will be suspended or even be on Kansas City’s roster once the regular gets underway.
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas won seven of its final eight games down the stretch after acquiring wideout Amari Cooper from the Raiders, taking the division from the Eagles in the process. As has become the norm, the Cowboys didn’t do much during the offseason. Jerry Jones & Co. re-signed defensive end Demarcus Lawrence, brought tight end Jason Witten out of retirement, and added slot receiver Randall Cobb, but otherwise kept his club intact. Given that the Giants and Redskins don’t look like serious contenders, Dallas will likely battle Philadelphia for the NFC East crown again.
Chicago Bears
The Bears seem to be the current pick for regression in 2019, and it’s not difficult to see why. Chicago was buoyed by its league-best defense last season, and defensive success is historically less stable and less predictive than production on offense. Not only did the Bears lose key defenders like Adrian Amos and Bryce Callahan, but star defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is also gone. Chicago will likely need to rely on improvement from quarterback Mitchell Trubisky if it wants to hold off the Packers and Vikings next year.
New Orleans Saints
After posting three consecutive 7-9 seasons from 2014-16, the Saints have manged 24 regular season victories and two NFC South titles over the last two years. New Orleans added two new weapons — tight end Jared Cook and running back Latavius Murray — for Drew Brees, and found both a short-term (Nick Easton) and long-term (Erik McCoy) replacement for recently-retired center Max Unger. On paper, the Saints still look like an incredibly strong team, but their division is one of the toughest in the NFL.
Los Angeles Rams
Fresh off a Super Bowl appearance, the Rams added two free agent defenders in edge rusher Clay Matthews and safety Eric Weddle, but also lost key contributors like Ndamukong Suh, Rodger Saffold, and Lamarcus Joyner. Additionally, Todd Gurley‘s knee condition isn’t likely to allow him to be a bell-cow in 2019, meaning more responsibility will be placed on Jared Goff. Luckily for Los Angeles, none of the other clubs in the NFC West appear ready to dethrone the Rams just yet.
So, what do you think? Which 2018 first place team is likeliest to miss the playoffs in 2019? Vote below! (Link for app users).
8 NFL Teams Have Wrapped Up Their Draft Classes
Roughly one-quarter of the NFL’s teams have signed every player in their draft class, as shown in PFR’s tracker. The front offices of the following clubs have a little bit less on their plate as mandatory minicamps get underway:
- Cardinals
- Falcons
- Browns
- Lions
- Chiefs
- Saints
- Eagles
- Steelers
While the league’s rookie slotting system has been criticized by some, there’s no denying that it has streamlined the signing process for the incoming class. Prominent first-round picks like Joey Bosa and Marcus Mariota have squabbled with teams over offset language in recent years and the third round lacks some structure due to flexibility in base salary, but, on the whole, rookies have been quicker to put pen to paper in recent years.
We’ll likely see several more teams wrap up their draft classes before the week is through. The Bills, Bengals, Cowboys, Packers, Texans, Colts, Dolphins, Vikings, Patriots, Seahawks, Titans, and Redskins each have just one straggler remaining. Unsurprisingly, most of those unsigned players are third-rounders. The Vikings are a notable exception – seventh-round pick Austin Cutting is waiting to find out whether the Air Force will permit him to play instead of immediately fulfilling his two-year service requirement.