PFR Originals News & Rumors

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

• A member of the Falcons’ talented skill-position corps is entering a contract year, and PFR’s Rory Parks looked at where Austin Hooper stands at a key point in his career. While the Falcons’ extension efforts are aimed at Julio Jones and Grady Jarrett at this juncture, Hooper figures to draw attention fairly soon. The former third-round pick is coming off a Pro Bowl season, but the tight end market has been somewhat stagnant.
• Just 64 of this year’s 254 draft choices remain unsigned, and PFR’s Zach Links examined why. Unsurprisingly, the bulk of the unsigned players are first- or third-round picks — the latter largely due to the vague CBA language regarding Round 3 selections.
• The term “offset language” comes up each year around this time, with that being a haggling point in first-rounders’ negotiations. Zach delved deeper into this term and what it means for top rookies.
• Most of the top remaining free agents are defensive players, and teams have acted accordingly on that front this week. But some notable talents from the offensive side of the ball remain unsigned. On a list that includes Michael Crabtree and Jay Ajayi, PFR’s Dallas Robinson looked into who is left on the market and their best fits.
• Thirty 2020 draft picks have already changed hands, most notably in last summer’s Khalil Mack deal. Dallas charted what teams gained in next year’s draft. Notably, the Patriots hold four seventh-round selections next year.
• The defender market still includes big names like Ndamukong Suh, Eric Berry and Muhammad Wilkerson. Dallas ranked the top defensive players still unsigned. Some key starter-level talents are available.
• Building on that, Rory asked the PFR community — in our latest Community Tailgate installment — who will end up with Suh. With the Rams likely to move on from the acclaimed defensive tackle, Suh will have a fourth employer soon. This will be the mammoth defender’s age-32 season.

The most high-profile NFL free agent signings occurred two months ago, but as we near June, there are still talented free agents available on the open market. Most of these players won’t command much guaranteed money, and none will factor into the compensatory draft pick formula given that we’ve passed the May 7 deadline for comp selections. After looking at the offensive side of the ball on Wednesday, let’s go over the defensive players who will try to find a home as training camp approaches:

1. Ndamukong Suh, DT

Suh hasn’t drawn any known interest since the free agent period began in March, and that’s apparently due to his asking price. As Albert Breer of TheMMQB.com reported earlier this month, Suh — who has never played on an annual salary of less than $10MM — is searching for another large contract. The 32-year-old Suh ratcheted up his play near the end of the regular season and into the playoffs, generating nine pressures and 1.5 sacks during Los Angeles’ run to the Super Bowl. The Rams aren’t likely to re-sign Suh but probably can’t be completely ruled out, while the Vikings are defensive tackle-needy yet cap-strapped. Cutting or trading tight end Kyle Rudolph would free up $7.625MM that could go into a Suh fund.

Possible fits: Seahawks, Cowboys, Rams, Broncos, Vikings

2. Tre Boston, S

Boston has been in free agent limbo before. In 2017, he was forced to wait until May 12 to sign a one-year deal with the Chargers, and last season, he didn’t get a contract done with the Cardinals until July 25. Still only 26 years old, Boston has posted 10 interceptions over the past three years and in 2018 graded as the 20th-best coverage safety in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. That deep, center-field ability is extremely valuable in the NFL, so it’s certainly surprising to see Boston still on the sidelines. Jacksonville needs to replace Tashaun Gipson in the back end of its secondary, and Boston would be a worthwhile target.

Possible fits: Jaguars, Cowboys, Redskins, Lions, Panthers, Buccaneers

3. Shane Ray, EDGE

The 23rd overall selection in the 2015 draft, Ray posted his best campaign during his sophomore season, registering eight sacks and finishing as a top-40 edge defender with 45 pressures. He’s only played roughly 600 defensive snaps in the two years since, however, as multiple wrist surgeries have kept him off the field. A one-year deal seems likely for Ray, but a smart team might attempt to secure an option for the 2020 season. If Ray can stay healthy and provide production, he’d stick around at a cheap rate. If not, there’d be no loss for the club.

Possible fits: Colts, Raiders, Seahawks, Bengals, Giants, Ravens, Rams

4. Morris Claiborne, CB

While there aren’t a ton of NFL clubs with glaring needs at cornerback, the importance of coverage means that nearly every team could stand to add a steady defensive back like Claiborne. The 29-year-old has a concerning injury history, as he played in only 47 of a possible 80 games during the first five years of his career. But Claiborne managed to stay healthy during his two years with the Jets, appearing in 30 games and playing nearly 2,000 defensive snaps since 2017. Gang Green hasn’t ruled re-signing Claiborne, although it was former general manager Mike Maccagnan — and not interim GM/head coach Adam Gase — who indicated a reunion was possible.

Possible fits: Jets, Giants, Chiefs, Bills

5. Eric Berry, S

Now 30 years old, Berry has only played three total games over the past two seasons, with an Achilles injury limiting his availability. The Cowboys took a visit with Berry during the opening days of free agency, but they’ve since added free agent George Iloka. The Browns, too, reportedly expressed interest in Berry, but went on to sign Morgan Burnett and acquire Eric Murray. Colts general manager Chris Ballard, a former Chiefs executive who places an emphasis on character, could team Berry with incumbent safeties Malik Hooker and Clayton Geathers, while the Buccaneers and Panthers are in both in desperate need of secondary help.

Possible fits: Cowboys, Colts, Jaguars, Redskins, Buccaneers, Lions, Panthers

6. Danny Shelton, DT

Shelton is a free agent after the Patriots — who acquired him from the Browns last offseason — turned down his fifth-year option, which would have netted the former first-round pick $7.154MM for the 2019 season. A behemoth at 6’2″, 345 pounds, Shelton isn’t really a great fit for today’s NFL, as run-stuffing nose tackles are slowly making their way out of the league. Still, PFF graded Shelton as a top-45 interior defender a season ago, so he should still be able to find a new club. The Bengals met with him earlier this offseason, and could still make sense as a destination.

Possible fits: Bengals, Texans, Colts, Titans, Falcons, Rams

7. Coty Sensabaugh, CB

While he’s probably not a household name, Sensabaugh was a fairly regular starter for the Steelers over the past two seasons, starting four games at the tail of end the 2017 campaign and 10 more last year. Football Outsiders was a fan of Sensabaugh’s work, charting him as ninth among qualified corners in yards allowed per pass and 26th with a 56% success rate (meaning he was effective at stopping opposing wide receivers short of the sticks). Tampa Bay, which has yet to re-sign Brent Grimes and is instead relying on Vernon Hargreaves and a cavalcade on inexperienced players at corner, should give Sensabaugh a call.

Possible fits: Buccaneers, Lions, Redskins, Giants, Jets, Dolphins

8. Muhammad Wilkerson, DT

The 2018 season couldn’t have gone much worse for Wilkerson. Forced to sign a one-year, prove-it deal with the Packers, Wilkerson managed to play in only three games before going down with a fractured ankle. Wilkerson’s contract with Green Bay was worth $5MM and carried $3MM in available incentives, and he’ll have to accept something far cheaper to find a new team this time around. The Packers and Wilkerson reportedly had “mutual interest” in a fresh deal as of March, but nothing has come of those talks.

Possible fits: Packers, Patriots, Titans, Raiders, Cowboys, Seahawks

9. Corey Liuget, DT

Speaking of lost 2018 campaigns: Liuget was suspended for the first four games of the season after violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing drug policy, and was then pressured to accept a pay cut from the Chargers. The former first-round pick appeared in just six contests before a torn quad ended his season prematurely. Los Angeles moved on at the end of the season, declining his option for the 2019 season. Liuget never lived up to his draft billing, but he’s got 108 games of experience under his belt and didn’t have any serious injury concerns unless last year. He’s met with the Giants, Seahawks, and Jaguars this offseason.

Possible fits: Giants, Seahawks, Jaguars, Cowboys, Vikings

10. Nick Perry, EDGE

This final spot came down to Perry and fellow edge rusher Derrick Morgan, and we went with Perry because he’s actually garnered interest this offseason after being released by the Packers. The 29-year-old Perry visited the Seahawks earlier this year, while the rebuilding Dolphins have also made an overture. The 28th overall pick in the 2012 draft, Perry posted 11 sacks in 2016, a performance which earned him a five-year, $60MM contract from Green Bay. A knee injury cost him the final seven games of the 2018 season, during which PFF graded Perry as a bottom-seven edge defender among 113 qualifiers.

Possible fits: Seahawks, Dolphins, Bills, Ravens, Giants

While the majority of trades that occurred before and during last month’s draft involved 2019 draft choices changing hands, some 2020 selections have also been dealt. This list will continue to be updated throughout the offseason, so be sure to check back after trades have been consummated for an updated look at which picks are on the move for 2020. If you have any corrections, please contact us.

Here are 2020’s traded draft picks:

The most high-profile NFL free agent signings occurred two months ago, but as we near June, there are still talented free agents available on the open market. Most of these players won’t command much guaranteed money, and none will factor into the compensatory draft pick formula given that we’ve passed the May 7 deadline for comp selections. Let’s take a look at the offensive players who will try to find a home as training camp approaches:

1. Donald Penn, T

Jon Gruden and the Raiders did nearly everything they could to marginalize Penn over the past year or so — including cutting his pay, using two top-65 draft selections on offensive tackles, moving him to the right side, and making free agent Trent Brown the highest-paid offensive lineman in NFL history — but Penn may have still been Oakland’s best tackle when he was released on March 16. As recently as 2017, Pro Football Focus graded Penn as the NFL’s No. 11 tackle, charting him as allowing only 25 total pressures (18th among tackles who played at least 50% of their club’s snaps). The Browns, planning to deploy Greg Robinson on Baker Mayfield‘s blindside, should have Penn on speed dial, while the Texans expressed interest before spending two of their first three 2019 picks on tackles.

Possible fits: Browns, Texans, Jets, Vikings

2. Jay Ajayi, RB

Like Penn, Ajayi dealt with injury for most of the 2018 campaign, as a torn ACL ended his season in Week 5. But he’s been pretty effective when healthy. In 2016, Ajayi finished seventh in Football Outsiders’ DYAR, which measures value over a replacement level player. The following year, he ranked 10th in broken tackle/per touch percentage, a statistic that, as Josh Hermsmeyer of FiveThirtyEight.com tweets, is mostly under the back’s control and thus a reliable metric for evaluating the position. The Buccaneers, who finished 24th in rushing DVOA and 28th in expected points gained by their rushing attack in 2018, could add Ajayi to a backfield that includes Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones.

Possible fits: Buccaneers, Vikings, Colts, Jaguars, Texans

3. Ryan Schraeder, T

Let’s start with the bad. The Falcons benched Schraeder for the final three games of the 2018 season, opting to go with non-world-beater Ty Sambrailo at right tackle to close out the year. (Atlanta traded back into the first round to select right tackle Kaleb McGary in last month’s draft, which should give you an idea of the club’s view on Sambrailo, and in turn, Schraeder). But the 31-year-old Schraeder graded as the No. 30 tackle in the NFL last season, per PFF, which means he’s still a starting-caliber player. And he offers a wealth of experience, having started 73 contests and played nearly 5,000 snaps over the past six seasons. The Chargers need to add competition for Sam Tevi on the right side, and Schraeder would be a worthwhile addition.

Possible fits: Chargers, Dolphins, Jets

4. Michael Crabtree, WR

Crabtree wasn’t the most efficient receiver in 2018, but Lamar Jackson didn’t help with volume. After reeling in 8.4 targets per game in Joe Flacco‘s nine starts, Crabtree only received 3.4 targets per contest once Jackson took over. He still managed an even 100 targets on the year, and he’s one of only eight receivers to handle at least 100 targets in each of the past five seasons. That’s in large part due to his availability, as Crabtree has only missed three total games since 2014.

Possible fits: Packers, Texans, Broncos

5. John Sullivan, C

The Rams declined Sullivan’s option and let Rodger Saffold walk in free agency, but still surprisingly decided not to use a draft choice on an interior lineman. Los Angeles is now set to roll with Brian Allen and Joseph Noteboom — who played a combined 110 snaps a season ago — at center and left guard, respectively. Sullivan is entering his age-34 campaign and saw a decline in production in 2018, but he’s still viewed as one of the more cerebral centers in the game. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Los Angeles (or another team that suffers a center injury) signs Sullivan to a cheap, one-year deal as the regular season approaches.

Possible fits: Rams, Jets, Dolphins

6. Jermaine Kearse, WR

Kearse will offer his next club versatility, as he’s spent ample time in both the slot and out wide (70% slot in 2018 but only 44% in 2017). He’s had trouble getting open in recent seasons, averaging just 2.75 yards of separation since the 2017 campaign, but that may have been a scheme issue in New York. A fresh start in Denver (where new offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello will run Kyle Shanahan‘s scheme) or Green Bay (where Matt LaFleur will install Sean McVay‘s offense) could be helpful for Kearse. Quantifying soft factors such as leadership is difficult, but Kearse is a highly-valued locker room presence and referred to as a “pro’s pro.”

Possible fits: Ravens, Broncos, Chiefs, Lions, Packers

7. Bilal Powell, RB

You really don’t want to be a free agent running back in today’s NFL. Only six FA backs received more than $2MM annually this offseason, and only one — Le’Veon Bell — surpassed $5MM/per year. Powell might be hard-pressed to find even $1MM on the open market at this point, but now that he’s been fully cleared from a neck injury that once was considered potentially career-ending, he should draw interest. As recently as 2016, Powell ranked eighth in FO’s success rate, and he’s always been effective as a pass-catcher. A team like the Texans, which has a recovering D’Onta Foreman but little else behind starter Lamar Miller, could come calling.

Possible fits: Texans, Buccaneers, Ravens, Giants

8. Jermaine Gresham, TE

The Cardinals and general manager Steve Keim inked Gresham to one of the worst free agent deals of the 2017 offseason, a four-year, $28MM pact that contained $13MM in guarantees. Gresham, unsurprisingly, failed to live up that that contract, but that doesn’t mean he can’t still serve a role (although his next accord might be of the minimum salary variety). The 49ers took 2018’s best pass-blocking tight end off the board earlier today by signing Levine Toilolo, but Gresham wasn’t far behind, finishing seventh in PFF’s pass-block grades. If Delanie Walker isn’t healthy for the Titans this year, Gresham could be a fit, while the Vikings could make sense if Kyle Rudolph is traded.

Possible fits: Titans, Giants, Vikings

9. Jermey Parnell, T

At 6’6″, 326 pounds, Parnell is a prototypical, road-grading right tackle, and he’s still good at what he’s asked to do. While the Jaguars ran behind right tackle at a league-low 4.6% clip last season, they generated 5.22 adjusted line yards when doing so, the third-highest figure in the NFL, per FO. The Dolphins are entering a rebuilding period, but they still need at least some sort of competency along their offensive line in order to judge new quarterback Josh Rosen. Parnell would give Miami more stability than would rookie sixth-rounder Isaiah Prince.

Possible fits: Chargers, Dolphins, Jets

10. Brandon Fusco, G

The Raiders have Denzelle Good penciled in at left guard after trading Kelechi Osemele to the Jets, but Oakland has admitted it’s still looking for help at the position. Fusco would be a solid alternative in Tom Cable‘s zone-based blocking scheme, especially after spending last season in Atlanta. Now 30 years old, Fusco missed the final nine games of the 2018 campaign with an ankle injury, but he’d been relatively healthy in the three seasons prior and appeared in 46 of a possible 48 contests.

Possible fits: Raiders, Titans, Texans, Buccaneers, Rams

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The NFL Draft concluded a little over two weeks ago, but 161 (63%) of the league’s 254 draft picks have already inked their rookie deals, according to PFR’s tracker. That leaves just 93 stragglers left in total.

Unsurprisingly, 18 of this year’s 32 first round draft picks are in limbo, and that’s largely in due to the usual hiccups. Often, first round picks and teams haggle over offset language in contracts. That issue was at the heart of Joey Bosa‘s prolonged negotiations with the Chargers in 2016, but it’s not always a big barrier for top picks. Kyler Murray, selected No. 1 overall by the Cardinals, agreed to a deal last week that includes favorable offset language for the Cardinals in the event that he is released before the conclusion of his four-year pact.

Negotiations for third round picks also tend to take longer due to a relative lack of structure in the bylaws for their deals. That explains why a whopping 29 of this year’s 38 third round choices are unsigned as of this writing.

Between the first and third rounds, there are 47 unsigned rookies, which accounts for more than half of this year’s unsigned players. The overall number of unsigned players should drop significantly from the current total (93) between now and the end of the month, but don’t be surprised if the first and third rounds are disproportionately represented over the next few weeks.