AFC North Rumors: Jackson, Watson, Steelers
A common conception of the situation surrounding the Ravens and quarterback Lamar Jackson‘s efforts towards a new deal has been that Jackson has refused to participate in negotiations. Jackson’s teammate, defensive lineman Calais Campbell, told the media this week that Jackson is more than willing to work out a new contract, according to Jamison Hensley of ESPN.
“He wants to get a deal done, and that’s the most important part” Campbell said on NFL Network. “Sometimes guys who are part of a team and don’t want to be there anymore use (free agency) as an opportunity to go elsewhere, but he wants to be (a Raven).”
Josina Anderson of CBS Sports reported yesterday that the Ravens remain “hopeful” for a new deal and that the team currently has their best offer yet on the table for Jackson. It’s reportedly not an all or nothing offer, as the Ravens are waiting for a counter to their proposal from Jackson. We have no certain facts as to what the deal may entail, but on The Athletic Football Show podcast hosted by Robert Mays, rumors were mentioned that Baltimore is willing to go up to $50MM per year and 80% guaranteed money. The team is running out of time before they’ll be required to tag Jackson or, barring a more preferred resolution, trade him.
Here are a few more rumors from around the AFC North, starting with one of the main reasons the Ravens are having such an issue with Jackson’s new contract:
- News that comes as a surprise to absolutely nobody, the Browns are exploring restructuring the historic fully-guaranteed contract of quarterback Deshaun Watson, according to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com. The team is facing a challenge in getting under the salary cap and have already confirmed plans to release safety John Johnson in order to clear some space. After a first year of Watson’s contract that held a base salary of $402,500 and a cap hit of $9.40MM, Watson’s numbers in 2023 jump up to a base salary of $46MM and a record-setting cap hit of $54.99MM. Browns general manager Andrew Berry acknowledged that, with the team currently about $13.42MM over the cap, Watson’s mammoth contract could be a source of wiggle room with a restructure.
- Since the Steelers waited until after last year’s draft to replace then-general manager Kevin Colbert, new general manager Omar Khan is going through his first draft process. According to Mark Kaboly of The Athletic, Khan plans to use assistant general manager Andy Weidl much in the way Weidl was used in Philadelphia. That is to say that the Steelers will rely on Weidl to put together the team’s draft board before turning it over to the higher ups who will make the draft decisions. Weidl will utilize input from director of player scouting Mark Sadowski, director of college scouting Dan Colbert, and director of pro scouting Sheldon White, then Khan will work together with head coach Mike Tomlin and owner Art Rooney to make decisions.
Community Tailgate: Lamar Jackson
Ozzie Newsome’s final draft as Ravens general manager in 2018 saw the team secure a succession plan for Joe Flacco at the quarterback position. With the Super Bowl XLVII MVP aging and approaching an important financial point in his contract, Lamar Jackson was selected to one day take over the reins of a transitioning offense.
That time came midway through Jackson’s rookie season, when the Louisville product took over for an injured Flacco. He helped lead the Ravens to a 6-1 record and a playoff berth, cementing his status as the starter moving forward. The 2019 season saw Jackson deliver one of the most unique and historic performances in NFL history, which culminated in the league’s second ever unanimous MVP vote. Expectations have been through the roof ever since, but the situation between Jackson and the Ravens has soured recently with contract talks netting little progress over the past two years. 
The 26-year-old was thought to be next in line for a mega-extension similar to the ones signed by Patrick Mahomes and 2018 classmate Josh Allen. The Ravens have been prepared to pay Jackson in a similar fashion to those two in terms of annual compensation in the neighborhood of $45MM per season. As time wore on without much traction being gained during negotiations, though, the events of last offseason marked an important turning point.
After being the subject of a bidding war, Deshaun Watson was ultimately traded to the Browns and signed to a five-year, $230MM deal. The surprise from Cleveland’s willingness to part with three first-round picks for him was surpassed only by the fully guaranteed nature of his pact. Many around the league – including Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti – lamented the historic investment the Browns made in Watson, acutely aware of how it would likely affect Jackson’s leverage in extension talks.
The previous season had seen Baltimore find itself atop the AFC standings before a reaching a tipping point on the injury front. That included Jackson missing time due to injury for the first time in his career. He was sidelined for the final five games of the year, and the Ravens narrowly missed the playoffs while struggling mightily on offense. Reports then emerged during the summer of 2022 that the two-time Pro Bowler turned down an offer including $133MM in guaranteed money.
That figure would have ranked second in the league, but nowhere near the level of Watson’s deal. New contracts signed by Russell Wilson ($124MM fully guaranteed) and Kyler Murray ($103MM) suggested teams were willing to ignore the Watson accord in terms of precedent on the guarantee front, something GM Eric DeCosta and the Ravens’ front office is holding firm on. Jackson made it clear he would pause negotiations during the 2022 season, one which was expected to provide clarity on his financial future.
Playing on the fifth-year option, Jackson and the Ravens instead followed a similar script this year. The former Heisman winner suffered a knee injury in Week 13, something which was not initially expected to cost him the remainder of the season. That did end up being the case, however, and much was made about his absence extending into the team’s postseason loss. Jackson’s decision to take to social media to elaborate on the extent of his PCL sprain, and later to issue a thinly-veiled directive to the team regarding his impending free agency has likewise not sat well.
Having missed 10 of the past 22 games, injuries have become a talking point with so much at stake in contract talks. That figure could give the Ravens (or any other interested team) perceived leverage, but Jackson has plenty as well. The Ravens are 46-19 in his starts, and 4-9 without him since 2019. The team’s offense has averaged 10 fewer points per game without Jackson during that span compared to the games in which he does play.
A new offensive coordinator in Todd Monken is expected to produce schematic changes compared to Greg Roman, the OC during each of Jackson’s four full seasons as a starter. Regardless of what takes place on that front, the Ravens’ pass-catching corps (which lacks established playmakers outside of tight end Mark Andrews) will be a key area of focus. Additions – such as a long-term replacement for Marquise Brown, whose trade request was quietly granted last spring – will be hard to come by when Jackson takes up a substantially higher portion of the Ravens’ cap, either through a mega-deal or a one-year charge brought on by the franchise tag.
The difficulty in acquiring and retaining pass-catchers increasingly became a point of contention after Flacco turned his 2012 playoff success into a franchise-record extension. Trepidation on the team’s part in terms of looking to avoid a repeat of that scenario would be understandable up to a point, as the Ravens look to keep Jackson in the fold while not compromising an otherwise strong roster.
With the franchise tag being all-but certain in Jackson’s case, this saga could continue for months to come. An offer sheet or tag-and-trade could come into play, depending on which tag the Ravens use and Jackson’s perceived market around the league. Whether he signs his tag is another matter altogether, and sitting out the offseason could lead to a holdout situation similar to Le’Veon Bell in 2018. The then-Steeler skipped the entire campaign, forfeiting millions in compensation (albeit far less than what Jackson would be giving up if he followed suit). Bell still landed a big-ticket deal from the Jets in 2019, so the tactic could prove useful if a repeat were to be attempted.
In the summer, PFR’s readers were split on how they felt this situation would unfold. No option is off the table at this point, from a franchise-record deal to the league’s first ever trade involving an MVP under the age of 30. How do you see things playing out? Which side will concede during negotiations? Where will Jackson play in 2023 and beyond? Have your say in the comments section.
Latest On Ravens-Lamar Jackson Talks
With the franchise tag window open, the countdown is on to see how the Ravens and quarterback Lamar Jackson are going to approach the impending deadline. Their current situation is the result of longstanding contract negotiations reaching a well-established impasse. 
Guaranteed money has long been reported as the sticking point between Baltimore’s front office and the 26-year-old, who does not have an agent. The Ravens’ top offer from last offseason included $133MM in guaranteed money, which would have ranked second in the league behind only the historic deal signed by Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson. Jackson, meanwhile, has repeatedly attempted to use that $230MM contract as the market value for his next pact.
Adding further to that notion, a detailed report from ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler and Jamison Hensley states that each counteroffer Jackson has made to the Ravens so far were fully guaranteed contracts which “exceeded that of Watson.” The latter was given his massive accord after sitting out the 2021 season in Houston, and being the subject of a bidding war between several teams before the Browns gave the Texans a package including three first-round picks to acquire him. Other QB extensions around the league since then have pointed to the Watson deal being an outlier, rather than the new norm.
That has left the two parties in a standoff, and the assumption that a franchise tag will either extend the negotiating period into the summer or, perhaps, open up the possibility of a tag-and-trade. Much will be determined by whether or not the Ravens use the exclusive or non-exclusive tag, given the differences in not only value but the involvement other teams could have in influencing negotiations. A decision on that front will need to be made no later than March 7.
Among the other key takeaways from the ESPN piece is the fact that it includes further team sources expressing their surprise that Jackson missed the Ravens’ wild card loss to the Bengals. The former MVP’s knee sprain cost him time to close out the regular season as well, and he drew criticism from inside and outside the organization for his absence. That, coupled with his statistical outputs since the 2019 campaign, have clouded his future.
The hire of Todd Monken as offensive coordinator has led to the expectation the Ravens will throw the ball more than they did under Greg Roman. The former Buccaneers and Browns OC has made clear his intention of developing Jackson more as a passer, something which would no doubt lead to improved performances individually and for the team, should he find himself in Charm City in 2023.
Confirming what many have believed regarding contract talks, ESPN’s Dianna Russini tweets that Jackson is receiving guidance on this matter from the NFLPA. While that does not represent a direct replacement for an agent, it allows the two-time Pro Bowler to have support while negotiating the league’s next mega-deal. Something significant will likely need to take place for traction to be gained, though, regarding a contract being finalized any time soon.
Which Tag Will Ravens Use On Lamar Jackson?
Despite the continuous work of the Ravens and quarterback Lamar Jackson to reach a long-term agreement, it’s seemingly become a foregone conclusion that the Ravens will utilize their franchise tag to keep Jackson in Baltimore for another year.
On its surface, the decision seems simple: keep Jackson around so that the two parties can continue to negotiate. In reality, even the decision to tag Jackson becomes complicated as the two types of tags available (assuming Baltimore doesn’t go the route of the transition tag) hold major implications for their hopes of a future deal, according to Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated. 
The Ravens have the option of applying the exclusive franchise tag or the much more common non-exclusive franchise tag. The non-exclusive franchise tag allows the tagged player to negotiate a deal with a new team while granting the original team to option to match or refuse to match the new team’s offer. The exclusive franchise tag guarantees that the tagged player will remain with the original team but comes at a higher cost.
If Baltimore applies the non-exclusive franchise tag to Jackson, it opens the door for another franchise to submit an offer sheet. There’s a risky potential benefit for Baltimore in doing this. If the offer sheet comes in lower than what Jackson is asking for, the Ravens would have more solid ground to stand on in their contract negotiations.
This leaves the team vulnerable, though, to an offer sheet coming in far higher than the offers they’ve presented to Jackson. A team could, in theory, hamstring the Ravens by offering a contract that is higher than what the Ravens are offering but that they know the Ravens will not let Jackson walk over, leaving the Ravens in a precarious position financially. This kind of subterfuge is technically not allowed by the league, but it would be hard to prove intent over an asset like Jackson.
With that sort of risk, one might think it would just make more sense to apply the exclusive franchise tag to Jackson and be done with it. Sure, it would cost more, but it’s just for one year, right? Not exactly. Rumors have already come out that Jackson would be willing to play out two franchise tags before coming to a new deal, much like was done by Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins. OK, so it’s only two years then. No big deal. Unfortunately for Baltimore, while that would be the easiest immediate option, it would limit its negotiating power when seeking a long-term contract.
The exclusive tag for a quarterback currently would cost the Ravens $45.46MM in 2023. The cost of a second consecutive tag would likely be more in 2024 and adds an additional percentage. This means that, when devising a new contract for Jackson, Baltimore would have to include at least a two-year guarantee of $100MM because that would be the projected sum of two consecutive exclusive franchise tags, and the goal is to convince Jackson not to go that route.
Another danger Breer points out, and this one seems a bit less likely, is that Jackson may elect not to sign the exclusive franchise tag right away. This would allow Jackson to opt-out of any mandatory team activities through August with no penalty. Only if he misses games would Jackson incur any penalties by sitting out.
The Ravens have got plenty of decisions to make this offseason, but none seem bigger than how they are going to keep Jackson in black and purple for years to come. It’s sounding more and more likely that they tag Jackson to keep him from conventionally hitting free agency, but even that holds more decisions for general manager Eric DeCosta and company.
2023 NFL Franchise Tag Candidates
Set to begin its fourth decade of existence, the franchise tag remains a valuable tool for teams to keep top free agents off the market. This year’s tag window opens at 3pm CT on Feb. 21 and closes at 3pm CT on March 7. The NFL released its franchise tag figures — regarding the non-exclusive tag, at least, which will apply to all but one possible tag recipient — earlier this month, and teams are busy budgeting for free agency.
The legal tampering period opens March 13, with the new league year (and official free agency) starting March 15. Once a player is tagged, he has until July 15 to sign an extension with his respective team. Absent an extension agreement by that date, the player must play the 2023 season on the tag (or go the Le’Veon Bell/Dan Williams/Sean Gilbert route, passing on guaranteed money and skipping the season).
With high-profile free agents weeks away from hitting the market, here are the players who figure to be tagged or at least generate conversations about a tag ahead of the March 7 deadline.
Locks
Lamar Jackson, QB (Ravens)
One of the most obvious tag candidates since the tag’s 1993 debut, Jackson has been extension-eligible since January 2021. He and the Ravens went through negotiations in 2021 and 2022, negotiating into the season two years ago and stopping talks before Week 1 — a Jackson mandate — of last season. The self-represented quarterback has declined multiple Ravens offers in this span and failed to finish a season for the second straight year. The endless extension drama and rumblings of team frustration about Jackson’s failure to return from an ankle injury aside, the team will tag the former MVP.
Baltimore GM Eric DeCosta said last month he had not decided on using the exclusive or non-exclusive tag — the former preventing teams from talking to the QB, the latter opening the door to offer sheets — but a recent report suggested the team is more likely to roll the dice by using the non-exclusive tag. This would allow another team to sign to Jackson, 25, to the fully guaranteed deal he covets (in a transaction that could send two first-round picks Baltimore’s way) but also hit the Ravens with just a $32.4MM cap hit.
With the Browns collecting three first-rounders and change for Deshaun Watson, the Ravens would almost definitely want more than the two-first-rounder haul attached as baseline compensation for franchise tag offer sheets. But an exclusive QB tag is expected to check in beyond $45MM; this would severely restrict the Ravens in free agency.
The Browns’ Watson extension changed the game for the Ravens, creating a potentially unbridgeable guarantee gap. Jackson has long been connected to seeking a deal north of Watson’s $230MM fully guaranteed; the Ravens offered $133MM guaranteed at signing last year. Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti spoke out against the Browns giving Watson that money, and tag-and-trade scenarios involving the top quarterback in Ravens history have entered the equation. It will be a fascinating offseason in Baltimore, even after DeCosta and John Harbaugh expressed hope Jackson can be extended.
Likely tag recipients
Orlando Brown Jr., T (Chiefs)
Criticized by some for turning down the Chiefs’ six-year, $139MM extension offer in July 2022, Brown stayed healthy this season and earned another Pro Bowl nod. The mammoth left tackle is 2-for-2 in Pro Bowls as a Chief, and although he is not quite a top-tier blindsider, he would be one of this year’s top free agents if permitted to hit the market. The Super Bowl champions are not expected to let that happen. A second Brown tag would come in at $19.99MM, being 120% of his 2022 salary.
Brown, 26, cited insufficient guarantees in the Chiefs’ July proposal, which contained $38MM guaranteed at signing and $52.25MM guaranteed in total. The total guarantee figure trailed only ex-Ravens teammate Ronnie Stanley among tackles, while the full guarantee would have placed Brown fourth at the position. Brown turning down that proposal brought risk, and some in the Chiefs organization expressed frustration with the talented blocker. But the former Ravens right tackle’s bet on himself still appears to be paying off. This will be a crucial offseason for the Chiefs and Brown. A third tag — 144% of Brown’s 2023 salary — in 2024 would be viewed as untenable, sending him to free agency on the Kirk Cousins/Trumaine Johnson path. That makes July 15 a fairly firm deadline for Brown and the Chiefs.
Josh Jacobs, RB (Raiders)
After Las Vegas’ new regime passed on Jacobs’ fifth-year option, he became the first Raider to win the rushing title since Marcus Allen in 1985. Jacobs led the NFL in touches in 2022 (393) but was never a primary ball-carrier at Alabama; the former first-round pick should still have some tread on his tires. Running back extensions have become popular but divisive in recent years. While Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara and (for now) Ezekiel Elliott are attached to deals worth at least $15MM per year, the Raiders can tag Jacobs at just $10.1MM.
Jacobs, 24, has expressed a desire to stay in Nevada, and Josh McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler want to continue this partnership as well. With many quality running backs on track for free agency, new deals could be finalized before the Raiders become serious about Jacobs negotiations. Whether that happens this year or not, the former first-round pick is unlikely to reach the market.
Daron Payne, DT (Commanders)
After early-offseason extension rumblings, the Commanders did not move too far in this direction last year. They re-upped Terry McLaurin and let Payne play out a contract year. But Payne turned 2022 into a platform campaign that stands to make him one of this year’s top free agents. The Commanders are soon to have $26MM in additional cap space, by moving on from Carson Wentz, and the team will likely give strong consideration to keeping Payne off the market. The defensive tackle tag costs $18.94MM. Washington has begun Payne talks, but those are still in the early stages.
Washington has some mouths to feed on its defensive line, with both Montez Sweat and Chase Young now extension-eligible. The team already paid Payne’s Alabama and Washington D-tackle teammate, Jonathan Allen, and drafted another Crimson Tide interior rusher (Phidarian Mathis) in Round 2 last year. Mathis went down in Week 1, and Payne broke through for an 11.5-sack, 18-TFL season. A tag here is not an open-and-shut tag case, but it would be a tough blow for the Commanders to see their sack leader walk. Regrouping with Payne, 25, would make more sense, especially with the team not preparing to spend big at quarterback this offseason.
Tony Pollard, RB (Cowboys)
Seeming likelier by the week, a Pollard tag would keep an emerging playmaker with a light career workload in the fold. The Cowboys are believed to be strongly considering a tag here, even with Ezekiel Elliott‘s bloated contract on the books. Elliott taking less to stay — it would need to be a lot less — has already been floated, opening the door for his better-performing (in recent years, at least) backup to stick around on the $10.1MM number or via an extension.
It would be strange to tag a backup, but Pollard, 25, is essentially a Dallas starter. He matched Elliott with 12 touchdowns in 2022 and smashed his career-high scrimmage yards number with 1,378. Pollard’s 631 career touches rank just 24th among backs since 2019, pointing to a few prime years remaining on the horizon. With Elliott’s cap number near certain to move down from its present $16.7MM place and Pollard not at risk of seeing his fractured fibula affect his 2023 availability, the former fourth-round find should be back in Dallas.
The Giants’ decision
Daniel Jones, QB
Passing on Jones’ fifth-year option — an understandable decision, given Jones’ first three seasons — leads the Giants to one of the more interesting free agency quandaries in recent memory. After making Saquon Barkley a higher priority regarding in-season extension talks, Big Blue’s new regime has come around on Jones. The former No. 6 overall pick piloting the Giants to the divisional round for the first time in 11 years transformed his value from where it was entering the season, and GM Joe Schoen all but assured the fifth-year passer will be back with the team in 2023. Will that be on a long-term deal or via the tag?
If the Giants and Jones, 25, cannot find common ground before March 7, the tag will likely come out. The team encountered this situation with Leonard Williams in 2021 and tagged the trade acquisition for a second time. That preceded a monster extension. The Giants probably should be careful here, with two late-season matchups against a porous Vikings defense boosting Jones’ value — to the $35MM-per-year range. But the team also should be eager to see Jones in Brian Daboll‘s offense and surrounded by better pass catchers.
Saquon Barkley, RB
A Giants team that battled injuries and bad investments at wide receiver relied on Barkley for much of 2022. Losing the two-time Pro Bowler for nothing will bring considerable risk. Jones sitting atop the Giants’ to-do list may be a pivot from the midseason point, when Schoen referenced a Barkley tag. A positional value-based course change could send Barkley to free agency.
The Giants are believed to have offered Barkley a deal in the $12.5MM-per-year neighborhood, and while the former No. 2 overall pick cited his injury history (21 missed games from 2019-21) in saying he is not looking to reset the running back market, Schoen noted the sides’ 2022 negotiation did not come close to a deal. Barkley, 25, is believed to be seeking a contract near McCaffrey’s $16MM-per-year market-setting price. A $14MM-AAV compromise could be in play, but Barkley may also be keen on testing the market.
Tagging Jones at $32.4MM would clog the Giants’ cap ahead of free agency, whereas as a Barkley tag ($10.1MM) would not drain the team’s funds on the same level. Barkley can make a case he is worthy of the McCaffrey-Kamara tier, given his production (when healthy) and versatility — and the salary cap jumping nearly $30MM (to $224.8MM) since those stars’ 2020 extensions were finalized. But the Giants are not yet prepared to go much higher than the $12MM-AAV range — the second tier for running backs. Jones talks not producing a deal would put the Giants to a decision; Barkley could become one of the most talented backs to hit free agency.
While Barkley is a better player, Jones has become the Giants’ top priority. Tagging the quarterback would be far more expensive than cuffing Barkley. A Jones extension/Barkley tag scenario remains the best Giants path, but that can only come to fruition if Jones agrees to terms before March 7.
On tag radar
Jessie Bates, S (Bengals)
With Joe Burrow now extension-eligible, new contractual territory awaits the Bengals. Tee Higgins is also eligible for a new deal, with Germaine Pratt weeks away from free agency. Vonn Bell, a three-year Bengals starter who is also nearing free agency, would be a cheaper alternative at safety to keeping Bates on a second tag. Cincinnati also drafted potential Bates heir apparent Dax Hill in the first round. This all points to the Bengals letting Bates walk — as they did defenders Carl Lawson and William Jackson in 2021 — but the former second-round pick is still one of the league’s top safeties.
The Bengals and Bates never came close on an extension last year; the team’s conservative guarantee policy led to an offer of $16MM guaranteed at signing. While player personnel director Duke Tobin said last summer renegotiations this year will not be off the table, Bates will likely hit the market. The five-year Cincinnati starter, who will turn 26 next week, can be re-tagged at $15.5MM.
Jamel Dean, CB (Buccaneers)
The Bucs tagged Chris Godwin in each of the past two years and prioritized retaining their core players above all else during that span. But, with Tom Brady‘s void-years money hitting the Bucs’ cap in 2023, a Dean tag will be difficult to pull off. The Saints moving from $75MM-plus over the cap in February 2021 to creating room for a Marcus Williams tag, however, shows how teams can go from cap hell to carving out tag space. That said, Brady’s $35.1MM hitting the cap pushes the Bucs past $50MM over the 2023 salary ceiling.
Dean, 26, has been one of the team’s top players. The former third-round pick grades as Pro Football Focus’ No. 11 overall cornerback from 2020-22. This still looks like an unlikely proposition, with the corner tag at $18.14MM, but it should not be considered completely off the table.
Evan Engram, TE (Jaguars)
Tight ends Mike Gesicki, David Njoku and Dalton Schultz received tags in 2022, and the tight end tag again checking in as the third-cheapest ($11.36MM) this year makes the Jaguars keeping Engram off the market a logical step. The former Giants first-round pick broke through on his one-year Jags pact, filling a longstanding void for the franchise. Engram’s 766 receiving yards set a Jacksonville single-season tight end record. With mutual interest believed to exist, a tag as a bridge to a summer extension — ahead of Engram’s age-29 season — is a scenario to watch here.
C.J. Gardner-Johnson, S (Eagles)
The Eagles traded two Day 3 draft picks for Gardner-Johnson and moved him from corner to safety. After the ex-Saints slot defender led the NFL in interceptions, he will be in line for a payday. New Orleans and Gardner-Johnson, 25, could not come to terms last summer, leading to the trade, but Philadelphia wants to retain the imported DB. The Bengals kept Bates off the market last year with the safety tag, which checks in at $14.46MM this year. Given the volume of defenders the NFC champions have set for free agency, this looks like a longer-odds scenario.
Dre’Mont Jones, DL (Broncos)
Jones’ statistical production would not be in line with a tag. The talented defensive lineman has yet to surpass 6.5 sacks or 11 quarterback hits in a season, but the former third-round pick has offered consistency and earned praise from the front office. Following the Broncos’ decision to trade Bradley Chubb, GM George Paton identified Jones as a player the team wanted to keep. The advanced metrics also view Jones fondly; Pro Football Focus charts the former third-round pick in the top 20 for pressures since 2019. Jones is believed to be a higher priority compared to guard Dalton Risner, a fellow Denver free agent-to-be.
Sean Payton‘s team using a $19MM tag on a non-Pro Bowler would be risky during an offseason in which the draft capital-poor team — thanks to the Payton trade requiring a 2023 first-round pick — faces a key free agency stretch. Jones, 26, sticking around should also depend on whom the Broncos hire as defensive coordinator.
Jordan Poyer, S (Bills)
Buffalo defensive stalwarts Poyer and Tremaine Edmunds are ticketed for free agency, but with the NFL still grouping rush- and non-rush linebackers together under its tag formula, Edmunds is not a realistic tag candidate. The linebacker tag ($20.9MM) trails only the QB price. Poyer, 31, is coming off his first Pro Bowl season and has been one of the Bills’ steadiest players in the Sean McDermott era. Signed during McDermott’s first offseason, Poyer has inked two Bills contracts. He angled for a third, eventually agreeing to an incentive package, and became indispensable during a season in which the Bills lost Micah Hyde to a September neck injury and saw Damar Hamlin face one of the scariest health issues in NFL history in January.
Hamlin aims to return, while Hyde is under contract. But a Bills defense that has seen inconsistency at corner for years could still use Poyer. If the parties cannot strike a deal before March 7, the $14.5MM safety tag may not be too steep here. That said, the Bills may try to avoid a tag and save some free agency dough for Edmunds.
Geno Smith, QB (Seahawks)
A $32.4MM quarterback tag does sound too steep for Smith, his Comeback Player of the Year award notwithstanding. The Seahawks traded Russell Wilson on March 8, 2022; they re-signed Smith to a one-year, $3.5MM deal on April 14. That low-cost, incentive-laden accord effectively illustrated the NFL’s view of the former second-rounder. While Smith’s stunning season upped his value tremendously, it still seems unlikely the franchise tag will come into play. A transition tag — worth $29.5MM and involving no draft compensation — would be a more logical move.
But the top tag has been floated as a Smith-Seattle scenario. The sides have begun negotiations, and Smith’s camp figures to factor the tag salaries into the talks. This process still feels like it will end in a Smith medium-term deal. But after a 30-touchdown pass season that also included an NFL-high 69.8% completion rate, the 32-year-old passer setting a high price as the tag deadline nears would force the team to consider cuffing its starter.
Coaching Notes: Cards, Kingsbury, Chargers
Mentioned as a candidate to reunite with Sean Payton, Mike Zimmer also may be under consideration for another reunion. Jonathan Gannon, one of Zimmer’s original hires with the Vikings back in 2014, appears to have the veteran coach on his radar for his Cardinals staff, Howard Balzer of gophnx.com tweets. Eagles linebackers coach Nick Rallis also may be on Gannon’s radar to head to Arizona, per Balzer. Gannon spent four seasons on Zimmer’s Minnesota staff, working as the Vikings’ assistant defensive backs coach. Rallis, 29, was on Zimmer’s Vikes staff from 2018-20, before joining the Eagles. It will be interesting to see if Zimmer, 66, has multiple options to return to an NFL post.
As for Gannon’s Cardinals staff as a whole, some of Kliff Kingsbury‘s assistants are in limbo. Vance Joseph and others have not been informed of their future with the Cards, Josina Anderson of CBS Sports tweets. Joseph was initially a candidate to replace Kingsbury and interviewed for the job, but the four-year Arizona DC did not reach the finalist stage.
With all five HC positions now filled, here is the latest from the coaching ranks:
- Back from Thailand, Kingsbury has now met with multiple teams. After interviewing for the Texans’ OC post, the four-year Cardinals HC met with the Ravens. The sides discussed an unspecified staff position, Anderson tweets. This Sunday interview of sorts did not produce an agreement. Kingsbury is still in line to collect considerable cash from his 2022 Cardinals extension, but the Texans and Ravens hired others — Bobby Slowik, Todd Monken, respectively — to run their offenses.
- Staying in Baltimore, Monken will have input in how the next Ravens offensive staff looks, per Anderson. The Ravens, as should be expected given their situation, followed through with their pledge to involve Lamar Jackson in the OC search as well (Twitter links). Monken, who collected two national titles while at Georgia, last coached in the NFL as the Browns’ OC in 2019.
- Justin Herbert‘s 2023 brain trust will consist of ex-Cowboy staffers. After hiring Kellen Moore, the Chargers are adding Doug Nussmeier as quarterbacks coach, Dianna Russini of ESPN.com tweets. Nussmeier, an OC at five college programs from 2008-17, was with the Cowboys for five seasons — the past three as QBs coach. The 52-year-old assistant had multiple offers for 2023 NFL gigs, per Russini (on Twitter).
- As the Broncos cycled through head coaches over the past several seasons, they kept Zach Azzanni in place. A Joseph hire back in 2018, Azzani stayed on as wide receivers coach under Vic Fangio and Nathaniel Hackett. Azzanni interviewed with both the Bills and Jets for the AFC East clubs’ respective wide receivers coach roles over the past two days, Tom Pelissero of NFL.com notes (on Twitter). While these meetings could signal Payton has other plans for this job, Pelissero adds the Broncos could still retain the highly regarded position coach to work for a fourth HC.
- The Broncos will lose one of their quality control staffers to the Cowboys. Ramon Chinyoung is leaving Denver to become Dallas’ assistant offensive line coach, per 9News’ Mike Klis (on Twitter). The Cowboys are also hiring Will Harriger as an offensive assistant, Todd Archer of ESPN.com tweets. Harriger, who spent last season as a USC assistant, has worked with both Brian Schottenheimer and Dan Quinn. Harriger previously served as the Seahawks’ assistant quarterbacks coach from 2016-18 and later was part of Quinn’s Falcons staff.
- Shortly after the Broncos interviewed Rex Ryan for their DC job, the ESPN analyst’s son is in the mix for a title bump. The Jets requested an interview with Seth Ryan for their wide receivers coach position, according to ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter (on Twitter). A third-generation NFL coach, Seth is currently the Lions’ assistant receivers coach. Just 28, Ryan has an NFL assistant for four seasons. He has been with the Lions for the past two. Although Azzanni is also in the mix for this Jets job, Seth Ryan working for his father’s former team is on the radar.
Lamar Jackson Tag-And-Trade Still Possible?
FEBRUARY 12: In a live discussion of the below report, Rapoport suggests there is a very real possibility that the Ravens deploy the non-exclusive tag and allow another club to do their negotiating for them before ultimately matching an offer sheet (video link). Obviously, such a maneuver would create the risk of another team offering Jackson the fully-guaranteed deal he has been seeking but that Baltimore has been unwilling to authorize.
FEBRURARY 11: Much uncertainty still surrounds Lamar Jackson and the Ravens as the window for using franchise tags approaches. More specifically, the question of whether or not the former MVP remains in Baltimore for 2023 has yet to be answered, and little clarity currently exists.
In the latest breakdown of the situation, Tom Pelissero, Ian Rapoport and Mike Garafolo of NFL Network note that a franchise tag is still a certainty in the (likely) absence of a multi-year extension being agreed upon. They add, however, that there still exists a “possibility” that the Ravens end up trading Jackson for what would amount to a “windfall of draft picks.”
Jackson, 26, played out this past season on the fifth-year option of his rookie contract. Its $23MM value will be comfortably exceeded regardless of which franchise tag the Ravens choose to use. The non-exclusive one ($32.4MM) would leave Jackson the option of negotiating with another team and signing an offer sheet. In the event Baltimore declined to match it, they would receive two first-round picks as compensation.
On the other hand, the exclusive tag would eliminate the threat of an offer sheet. It would also carry a much larger burden on the Ravens’ books, with a projected value of over $45MM. It was reported recently that Baltimore was leaning towards the exclusive tag; the team must finalize a long-term contract in the very near future for a tag not come into play during the Feb 21-March 7 window.
Jackson’s likeliest location for the 2023 campaign remains Baltimore, even in the absence of a new deal, the NFL Network trio add. Still, the Louisville product would draw plenty of trade (or offer sheet) interest from any number of teams if they felt he would be available. A report from last month indicated just that, though the Ravens have been very public in their support of the former Heisman winner and their intention of retaining him for at least the short-term future.
On another note, the NFLN report adds that Jackson has yet to communicate with any of Baltimore’s offensive coordinator candidates. In the wake of Greg Roman‘s departure, the team indicated Jackson would have a say in the selection process, so that update speaks to how much longer Baltimore’s search could still take until after the Super Bowl. Regardless of the developments on that front, speculation will no doubt continue regarding Jackson’s future.
Ravens Likely To Use Exclusive Franchise Tag On Lamar Jackson
Ravens GM Eric DeCosta said last month he has gone back and forth on the exclusive-or-nonexclusive decision regarding Lamar Jackson‘s imminent franchise tag. A month from the March tag deadline, the sense is the Ravens will be the rare team to unholster the exclusive tag.
The Ravens should be expected use the exclusive tag, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com said during a Pat McAfee Show appearance (video link). Execs around the league believe the Ravens should use this rarely deployed player-retention tool to cuff their five-year starter, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com adds. The Ravens have until March 7 to tag Jackson.
Nonexclusive franchise tag figures surfaced last week. While it would cost Baltimore more than $32.42MM to use the standard franchise tag on Jackson, an exclusive tag — which prevents other teams from negotiating with players — is expected to come in just north of $45MM. That is uncharted cap terrain for the Ravens, who rostered Jackson on a $23MM fifth-year option in 2022.
The exclusive quarterback tag brings a price hike into historic cap territory, and given Jackson’s path since becoming extension-eligible, the Ravens will likely be forced to carry that number on their payroll for a while. The sides have not made progress since DeCosta and John Harbaugh emphatically endorsed a Jackson return, Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic notes (subscription required). Although the Ravens have not given up hope of extending Jackson before free agency, per Zrebiec, everything that has transpired to this point does not suggest that will happen.
A potentially unbridgeable gap in guaranteed money exists here, with the Ravens having offered $133MM fully guaranteed last year and Jackson seeking a number that outflanks Deshaun Watson‘s record-shattering $230MM figure. In a vacuum, Jackson is justified in asking for that. But teams are treating the Browns’ 2022 Watson deal — which came amid a four-team trade sweepstakes — as an outlier. Steve Bisciotti said last year he wished the Browns had not gone to that guarantee place for Watson, and it indeed affected the former Browns franchise’s talks with its passer. The Ravens remain unlikely to offer a fully guaranteed deal, Zrebiec adds.
Jackson skipped the Ravens’ offseason workouts last year. Absent a deal, it should not be expected the five-year veteran will show for Baltimore’s voluntary portion this year. Until Jackson signs his franchise tender, he would not be obligated to attend minicamp or training camp, either. With the Ravens retooling on offense this offseason, Jackson attendance will be more important than it was last year. The Ravens are also involving the pending free agent in their OC search.
Compared to most teams, the Ravens are in good cap place. They hold nearly $27MM in space, sitting within the top 10 leaguewide. That would change once a Jackson exclusive tag enters the picture. The dual-threat star has refused Baltimore’s best offers thus far, and although he must sign the tag to lock in that $45MM, the self-represented player’s unorthodox approach regarding his second contract could certainly lead to him making the Ravens sweat leading up to the season.
A nonexclusive tag stipulates teams can pry tagged performers away with two first-round picks. The Ravens using the exclusive tag would allow them to set a different trade market, and while Rapoport adds a trade remains unlikely, paying the extra $13MM would move the boundary for trade compensation. Watson is the only quarterback to fetch three first-round picks since the 1970s, but Jackson — a three-time Pro Bowler with an MVP honor on his resume — has outperformed the controversial QB. Then again, it would require more adjustments to a team’s offense to build an attack around Jackson’s unique skillset.
Trade calls should be expected, Fowler adds, but this part of the Jackson process does not appear to have ignited just yet. A January report pointed to teams believing the Ravens will, in fact, make Jackson available. But DeCosta and Harbaugh’s strong endorsements push back on that. Though, pivoting to a trade after such statements would not exactly be an NFL first. We do appear headed toward a full-fledged third round of these negotiations, and no end is in sight.
AFC North Notes: Ravens, Lamar, Steelers
In a press conference this past Thursday, Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta spoke to the future of several Ravens players as the team heads into the offseason. Although the free agency of quarterback Lamar Jackson is obviously the main headline of Baltimore’s offseason, DeCosta still has plenty on his plate from key free agents like cornerback Marcus Peters and offensive guard Ben Powers to veterans flirting with retirement like defensive tackle Calais Campbell.
Peters is headed towards free agency this offseason after three seasons in Baltimore. The Ravens have been fairly top-heavy at the cornerback position in the past few years with Peters and Marlon Humphrey. They invested some draft capital in the position last year, selecting rookies Jalyn Armour-Davis and Damarion Williams, but due to experience and injuries, they were still forced to rely on contributions from the likes of Daryl Worley and Kevon Seymour. The team signed free agent Kyle Fuller in the offseason, but a Week 1 knee injury knocked him out for the year. DeCosta hinted that the team will continue to try and add more talent at cornerback regardless of whether or not they are able to re-sign Peters.
Powers continued his play this year as a full-time starter and had his best NFL season in a contract year. He may follow the likes of former Ravens’ linemen like Ryan Jensen and Kelechi Osemele, who priced themselves out of a new contract in Baltimore in the past.
The Ravens were able to sign trade acquisition Roquan Smith to a long-term deal and now are faced with the contract situation of fellow linebacker Patrick Queen. Queen’s play elevated substantially while playing alongside Smith and has the Ravens considering his future going into this offseason. DeCosta said he isn’t ready to announce that they will pick up Queen’s fifth-year option, but he made sure to clarify that Smith’s contract won’t preclude them from signing Queen long-term.
Lastly, the Ravens have two esteemed veterans that could consider hanging up their cleats. Campbell mulled retirement last season and will likely kick the idea around a bit once again this offseason. Pass rusher Justin Houston is under contract for another season but could potentially call it a career. He stated recently that he does intend to keep playing, and both athletes met with DeCosta before leaving town for the offseason.
Here are a few more rumors from around the AFC North, starting with the main storyline for the offseason in Charm City:
- Ryan Clark referenced a debate on ESPN’s first take recently about the details of offers made to Jackson. A source provided knowledge that the Ravens’ initial offer had $113MM in guaranteed money and that offer was eventually upped to $133MM. That guaranteed amount doesn’t come anywhere close to Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson‘s $230MM guaranteed contract, but the second offer would be the most guaranteed money to any quarterback in the NFL besides Watson.
- The Steelers’ coaching staff is set to undergo some changes this offseason. According to Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, one coach on his way out is assistant wide receivers coach Blaine Stewart who is set to join the staff at West Virginia University. Stewart’s father, Bill, served as head coach of the Mountaineers from 2008-10.
- The Buccaneers parted ways with offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich at the end of this season. The Athletic’s Mark Kaboly speculated that, unless Leftwich finds work elsewhere as an offensive play caller, the former Steelers quarterback could find a role as an offensive assistant on Mike Tomlin‘s staff. Kaboly posits that a role as senior offensive assistant/passing-game coordinator could be in play for Leftwich. Leftwich would essentially be a coordinator-in-waiting as current offensive coordinator Matt Canada is in the final year of his contract.
Ravens Expect Lamar Jackson To Stay In 2023; QB To Have Input In OC Search
While this offseason presents the third round of Ravens-Lamar Jackson negotiations, key variables are part of the 2023 equation. Jackson is due for free agency (well, the franchise tag) in March, and the Ravens now have an offensive coordinator vacancy.
Greg Roman‘s departure will lead to Jackson, his status as a free agent-to-be notwithstanding, having input on the team’s next play-caller, GM Eric DeCosta said Thursday. Jackson endorsed a tweet indicating his Louisville years involved a pro-style offense, and while this could complicate the Ravens’ OC search — as Roman ran a run-heavy offense that capitalized on Jackson’s historic ground-game impact — the team has some major issues to sort through.
As could be expected, both Ravens power brokers expect Jackson back in 2023. DeCosta said (via ESPN.com’s Jamison Hensley) he does not see any reason why the former MVP would not be back, while John Harbaugh offered a stronger stance.
“I want him here; Eric DeCosta wants him here; [owner] Steve Bisciotti wants him here, and Lamar wants to be here,” Harbaugh said. “One hundred percent, you know, 200%. Lamar Jackson is our quarterback. He’s been our quarterback.”
The Ravens have long been expected to apply the franchise tag to Jackson, who has been extension-eligible since January 2021 but just played out his fifth-year option season. DeCosta has not committed to using the exclusive franchise tag or the nonexclusive tag, indicating (via Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio) he thinks about that decision “every day.”
An exclusive tag is expected to come in at $45MM, which would place a historic cap figure atop the Ravens’ payroll ahead of free agency. A nonexclusive tag would cost the Ravens approximately $32MM. That gap will be notable for when the Ravens plot out their free agency course, though the lower amount would allow other teams to sign Jackson to an offer sheet. The Ravens would collect two first-round picks in the event they do not match an offer sheet.
Considering recent events — Jackson’s injury, team frustration about his inability to return, Jackson’s comments on the injury and his thinly veiled Instagram shot at the team’s attitude toward him — the Ravens’ full-fledged commitment is logical. They have maintained they have wanted to extend Jackson since 2021. DeCosta and Harbaugh met with Jackson on Thursday, but progress in these negotiations still appears elusive. DeCosta said (via NFL.com’s Tom Pelissero) he is excited to resume extension talks but noted it “takes two to tango.” The GM said this last year as well.
The Ravens are believed to have offered Jackson a six-year extension worth $133MM fully guaranteed. That figure would place Jackson in second place but second place by a gargantuan margin. Deshaun Watson‘s $230MM full guarantee is believed to be Jackson’s target, but the Ravens — and other teams — are attempting to treat the Browns quarterback’s contract as an outlier. While Jackson has outpaced Watson in accomplishments thus far and has not run into any off-field trouble like the Cleveland QB has, the latter’s contract did come via a rare trade derby that involved a four-team bidding war.
As for the speculation Jackson did not return to action this season because of his contract, DeCosta denied this (via BaltimorePositive.com’s Luke Jones). Harbaugh added the three-time Pro Bowler was close to returning to action. Jackson said last week he had a grade 2 PCL sprain that bordered on a grade 3 sprain, which is essentially a tear.
The recent Jackson developments have led some around the league to believe the Ravens will entertain trade offers — likely in a tag-and-trade scenario. DeCosta said (via Hensley) the team will not discuss anything involving a Jackson trade but believes the 25-year-old standout wants to stay in Baltimore for the duration of his career. Jackson has said the same in the past, but recent events and the team’s upcoming negotiations with the still-agent-less player may test that commitment.
Harbaugh said (via The Athletic’s Jeff Zrebiec) the team will consider internal candidates to replace Roman. The team operated this way in 2016 (Marty Mornhinweg) and 2019 (Roman). The most recent external hire for the job was Marc Trestman, who held the role from 2015-16. The Ravens will look outside the organization this time; the team must interview at least one external minority candidate to comply with the Rooney Rule.
The team’s passing-game struggles may well be attributed to Jackson, Jackson’s backups and Roman, but its issues at wide receiver have been a consistent concern. Harbaugh pointed to the team needing more receiving help this offseason, Zrebiec tweets. The team will have its top two wideouts — Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay — coming off major foot injuries, and it looks like more help will be sought. Procuring said aid on the market has not been the easiest thing for the run-heavy team to do, but receiver will be again be a focus for the Ravens this offseason.