Offseason In Review: Denver Broncos
Seeing another team book the AFC West’s mandated January home game last season, the Broncos geared this offseason around patching up holes to augment the nucleus still in place from Super Bowl 50. However, they figure to have stiff competition from arguably the league’s most competitive division.
For the second time in three years, the Broncos will have a new coach and new coordinators. While Denver’s defense posted one of the best pass-deterrence seasons in NFL history, with its DVOA in that department outdoing the Super Bowl defense’s work, its run defense slipped from third to 28th. But the primary obstacle in the way of a sixth Broncos playoff berth in seven years will be what happens at quarterback.
Whoever comes out of the Paxton Lynch/Trevor Siemian competition will need to deliver more if the Broncos are to avoid squandering another season of this defensive core’s apex. John Elway and Co., though, invested heavily in players who could help the franchise avoid back-to-back postseason absences.
Notable signings:
- Ronald Leary, G: Four years, $36MM. $18.65MM guaranteed.
- Menelik Watson, T: Three years, $18.75MM. $5.5MM guaranteed.
- Domata Peko, DT: Two years, $7.5MM. $3.8MM guaranteed.
- Zach Kerr, DL: Two years, $3MM. $1.25MM guaranteed.
- Kasim Edebali, LB: One year, $1.2MM. $200K guaranteed.
- Jamaal Charles, RB: One year, $2.5MM. $100K guaranteed.
- Todd Davis, LB: One year, $2.746MM. Signed second-round RFA tender.
- Brandon McManus: One year, $2.746MM. Signed second-round RFA tender.
- Billy Winn, DL: One year, $775K.
- Chris Lewis-Harris, CB: One year, $675K.
Gary Kubiak‘s two-year return to the Mile High City did not bring the kind of impact ground game many assumed his system’s installation would. These struggles largely stemmed from a lack of offensive line productivity. Save for some individual success — Evan Mathis in 2015, Matt Paradis last season — the Broncos’ front was often overmatched. And for a third straight year, major changes are coming to this unit.
After four new starters infiltrated the 2015 Broncos’ O-line, Paradis was the only starter back at his previous position from the Super Bowl unit a year later. This latest overhaul may bring three new starters. Only Paradis and Max Garcia are in line to reclaim their roles. But the team will pivot back to OC Mike McCoy‘s power-based scheme after two years in Kubiak’s zone system. Elway made two UFA signings expected to start in Leary and Watson.
Both bring questions, but after patching up their front with bargain free agent buys or later-round draft picks the past two years, the Broncos deviated and spent in their latest attempt to improve up front.
Leary thrived when on the field in Dallas, paving the way for monster seasons from DeMarco Murray in 2014 and Ezekiel Elliott last season. But Leary, who despite being a first-time UFA is 29, won’t have the luxury of lining up in between Tyron Smith and Travis Frederick this season. He’ll be asked to be a key component on Denver’s front as opposed to a supporting-caster, and the Broncos gave the ex-Cowboy the most money they’ve ever paid a guard. Leary graded well as a blocker in both 2014 and ’16, but La’el Collins usurped him for most of 2015.
The Raiders continually tried to install Watson as their right tackle, but rampant injury troubles intervened. An ex-second-rounder from Great Britain, Watson played in only 27 of a possible 64 regular-season games. There’s still potential attached to the 28-year-old blocker, but Watson will have to stay on the field to justify the somewhat surprising financial commitment. He’s the latest player the Broncos are trying at right tackle.
Since moving Orlando Franklin to left guard prior to the 2014 season, the Broncos have used seven starters on the right edge. Denver drafted Ty Sambrailo to play there in 2015 and signed Donald Stephenson to do the same last year. It’s been the most fluid position on an evolving O-line over the past few seasons.
Many of the Broncos’ defenders are already signed to high-value deals, so the team did not throw much money at help here. But in bringing in Peko and Kerr, the Broncos addressed a defensive line that no longer boasted much depth. That helped lead to the porous run defense which allowed opposing offenses to largely avoid challenging Denver’s elite cornerbacks in key games.
Beyond Derek Wolfe, none of Denver’s D-linemen were especially reliable last season. The Broncos will at least have more options in 2017 after adding Peko, a 10-year starter with the Bengals, and Kerr.
Despite being non-tendered as an RFA by the Saints, Edebali might be the team’s top off-the-bench pass rusher come Week 1. Shaquil Barrett‘s uncertain status after an offseason hip injury clouds the team’s once-formidable depth at outside linebacker.
Charles became the Chiefs’ all-time leading rusher despite being a full-time starter in just four of his nine seasons. Knee injuries derailed the 30-year-old All-Pro’s final two Kansas City slates, and having undergone three surgeries since October 2015, Charles is not a lock to be part of the Broncos this season. But he remains on schedule to return to the field come camp. As one of the best backs of his era, Charles would be overqualified for the Broncos’ complementary ball-carrying role if he’s healthy. But Denver having this kind of talent to pair with C.J. Anderson and Devontae Booker would add much-needed elusiveness to an offense that’s lacked it in recent years.
NFLPA Discussed Alternative League As Lockout Contingency
The NFL’s been operating on the latest CBA since the 2011 season, one that saw its offseason condensed due to the lockout. The NFLPA discussed a radical option should another lockout ensue when the league and the union are involved in the next CBA negotiations, according to Jason Cole of Bleacher Report.
Cole reports (via Twitter) a few among NFLPA brass discussed for more than two years the prospect of staging an alternative league that would operate if the owners lock the players out again. Said league would be a way for players to compensate for potential missed game checks, a factor that played into the negotiations during the 2011 lockout, but Cole notes this endeavor would require a major financial commitment from an outside party to fund the effort.
Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk broached this subject this weekend, one that’s continued to see windfall sums go to NBA players. NBA salaries, which mostly come fully guaranteed, are usually a talking point for NFLers during the offseason. This week brought the likes of Otto Porter and Tim Hardaway Jr. cashing in as restricted free agents, with the Wizards matching a Nets four-year, $106.5MM offer sheet to Porter and the Hawks declining to match a Knicks four-year, $71MM sheet for Hardaway.
Porter’s $106MM is fully guaranteed. No NFL player guaranteed to make as much as a zero-time NBA All-Star — and a player who’s served as the No. 3 scoring option on his own team — would naturally create some questions. Hardaway’s contract ensures he will make more per year than any NFL wide receiver is currently scheduled to receive.
Noting players’ fear of losing out on game checks weakened the NFLPA’s position in the 2011 negotiations, Florio writes the union needs to be planning ahead to dig in on a longer work stoppage this time. The CBA expires after the 2020 season, and the PFT writer offers that the players need to publicly pursue TV deals and stadium agreements to strengthen their stance against the owners for a better agreement on the next CBA. Greater percentages of contracts being guaranteed figures to be a key point in the ensuing negotiations.
The NBA-vs.-NFL argument has to factor in roster sizes, making NBA players’ skills inherently more valuable. But the NFL does bring in billions more in revenue. Chris Baker of the Buccaneers, who signed for three years and $15.75MM, and former Redskins teammate Terrance Knighton are among the latest to discuss the disparity between the leagues’ contracts (Twitter link). Neither made the point NBAers should make less, only that the NFL should pay its players more.
There is some precedent for NFL players staging outside games. The NFLPA organized two all-star games during the 1982 strike, one that wiped out seven games of the NFL season, but fewer than 10,000 fans attended each.
5 Key Stories: 7/2/17 – 7/9/17
Veterans hope to continue careers. With the regular season fast approaching, three well-known players are vying to keep their NFL tenures active. Running backs DeAngelo Williams (link) and Rashad Jennings (link), plus cornerback Darrelle Revis, are all intent on playing in 2017 despite the fact that they all remain unsigned. At this point, it’s hard to imagine any of that trio earning much more than a minimum salary, but each of the three can still contribute in the right role.
Jeff Fisher not ready to give up coaching. Like the three veteran players listed above, Fisher also wants to keep his NFL career alive. Fisher, 59, is tied for the most losses in NFL coaching history with 165, and owns a lifetime winning percentage of .512. He’s never won a Super Bowl, and hasn’t guided a team to a postseason appearance in nearly a decade.
Sam Darnold could wait until 2019. Darnold, considered one of the top quarterback prospects in the country and a contender for the first overall pick in the 2018 draft, could potentially hold off declaring for the draft until 2019. The USC product tossed 31 touchdowns and nine interceptions a year ago, and teams eyeing a quarterback upgrade surely hope he’ll enter the league in 2018.
Chiefs GM search ongoing. While Kansas City has yet to find a new general manager after firing John Dorsey two weeks ago, incumbent co-director of player personnel Brett Veach is increasingly viewed as the favorite for the position. In fact, Veach could be promoted to GM before the start of training camp. While Veach has a working relationship with Chiefs head coach Andy Reid, Reid reportedly isn’t involved in KC’s GM hunt.
Dorial Green-Beckham clears waivers. After being waived by the Eagles last week, Green-Beckham cleared waivers, meaning every NFL team declined the chance to pick him up. Any club that claimed DGB would have been on the hook for a base salary under $1MM, but even a cheap contract wasn’t enough to entice teams. Green-Beckham is now a free agent and can sign at any time.
Star Lotulelei Likely To Play Out 2017
The Panthers are expected to allow defensive tackle Star Lotulelei to play out the 2017 season before deciding whether to negotiate a long-term extension, reprots Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer.
Lotulelei, 27, hasn’t been very effective over the past two campaigns, at least according to Pro Football Focus‘ grades — last year, Lotulelei ranked as just the No. 74 interior defender among 127 qualifiers. He’s been extremely durable, however, as he’s missed only four games during four NFL seasons (and played all 16 contests in 2016).
While Lotulelei is expected to return as a starter in 2017, his playing time could be reduced as 2016 first-round pick Vernon Butler sees more action. Lotulelei played on roughly two-thirds of Carolina’s defensive snaps last season, while Butler hovered around 20%. As Person details, Butler’s development will play a key role in how the Panthers move forward with Lotulelei.
A former first-round pick, Lotulelei is under contract in 2017 via the fifth-year option, which will pay him $6.757MM. The Panthers have already financially committed to fellow defensive tackle Kawann Short, who landed a five-year, $80.5MM extension in April, so it’s unclear if the club wants to commit even more cap space to the interior of its defensive line.
Rashad Jennings Expects To Land Contract
Free agent running back Rashad Jennings expects to sign with an NFL team before the start of the 2017 campaign, as he explains to Damien Sordelett of the News and Advocate.
“I’m in the best shape of my life,” Jennings said. “I’m always going to be in shape. That’s what I’m known for across the league. A team knows they’re going to have a player that’s going to be in the best shape of their life.
“Free agency right now, I’m going into year nine. I understand free agency and how it works. I feel like I’ll be landing with a team in the next two months, but right now I feel I’m in such a peaceful place in my life, though, from transitioning to another team, transitioning to other things outside of football, doing all the philanthropic work that I do.”
Released by the Giants in February, Jennings won Dancing With The Stars and is now touring with the production. While Jennings believes the show allowed him to become more balanced and have “more awareness in space,” per Sordelett, some within the NFL believe Jennings is being “blackballed” for participating in the dancing competition.
In his age-31 season, Jennings managed only 3.3 yards per carry on 181 rushes, but did add 35 receptions through the air. Indeed, his ability in the passing game figures to attract clubs, as he graded as one of the league’s best running back pass blockers, according to Pro Football Focus. PFR ranks Jennings as the second-best free agent running back available, just behind Chris Johnson.
PFR Originals: 7/2/17 – 7/9/17
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- With the 2017 regular season only two months away, PFR began its annual Offseason In Review series, assessing the major signings, departures, trades, and other notable events for each of the 32 NFL clubs. We covered four teams this week:
- PFR published several polls last week, taking the temperature on several noteworthy NFL news items:
- The Browns brought in two quarterbacks — Brock Osweiler and DeShone Kizer — to compete with incumbent Cody Kessler this season, but it’s still unclear whom the team plans to start in Week 1. Sam Robinson asked PFR readers to voice their opinion, and most respondents pulled the lever for Osweiler.
- The Buccaneers haven’t earned a postseason berth since 2007, but after adding pieces such as DeSean Jackson, O.J. Howard, and Chris Baker, could Tampa Bay make it back to the tournament this year? Zach Links asked, and you answered: 61% of voters think the Bucs will be in the 2017 playoffs.
- Though they may appear strong at the moment, a few 2016 playoff teams inevitably will fail to make it back to the postseason next season. Connor Byrne wanted to know which clubs are most likely to fall off in 2017, and PFR readers voted the Texans and Chiefs as the most probable teams to be at home come January.
- Darrelle Revis posted a down year in 2016, but he’s still one of the best cornerbacks available on the free agent market. Money is an obstacle, as Revis is still earning $6MM from the Jets, but Zach asked whether the future Hall of Fame defensive back will play in 2017.
- The 2017 campaign could present a final straw for several young players with a lot — in terms of team success, roster status, and financial gains — on the line. In our Make Or Break Year series, Connor look at Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles, while Rory Parks tackled Dolphins signal-caller Ryan Tannehill.
- The Ravens released veteran Dennis Pitta and saw Darren Waller land a yearlong suspension, meaning Baltimore is now short on tight ends. With that in mind, I made the case that the Ravens should sign former Brown Gary Barnidge.
- While he may not be a household name, Bears defensive lineman Akiem Hicks posted excellent results a season ago, grading as Pro Football Focus’ No. 15 interior defender on 930 snaps. He’s entering a contract year, and Connor examined what a potential long-term extension between Hicks and Chicago could look like.
- Former Steelers and Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams reiterated his desire to continue his career last week, so I took a look at several destinations that could make sense for the veteran runner. A return to Pittsburgh could be ideal, but teams like the Lions and Chargers could also use another back.
- Only eight 2017 draft picks remained unsigned, and as Zach noted, seven of those choices are first-rounders (the only second-round pick without a contract is the Radiers’ Obi Melifonwu). One issue in negotiations could be offset language, which Zach posted a refresher on last week.
NFC Notes: Bucs, Cousins, Paea
Let’s take a quick swing around the NFC after rounding up a few AFC rumors earlier today:
- An article from Scott Smith of Buccaneers.com could have been construed to indicate that Buccanneers RB Charles Sims is a long-shot to make the team’s 53-man roster, but Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times says he would be surprised if Sims is cut, especially before Doug Martin returns from suspension in Week 4 (Twitter link). Auman adds (via Twitter) that Smith’s article probably meant to suggest that Blake Sims, not Charles, is a long-shot to make the roster. Indeed, Smith’s piece discusses how well-stocked Tampa Bay is at running back, and he suggests Charles Sims is one of the reasons the Bucs can field a solid RB group even without Martin. Smith later confirmed Auman’s interpretation via Twitter.
- In addition to running back, the Buccaneers also have intriguing position battles at slot corner, safety, and kicker, as Roy Cummings of FanRagSports.com writes.
- Rich Tandler of CSNWashington.com examines the long-term outlook for the Redskins, and it’s a fairly promising one, at least on offense. He looks at a possible snapshot of the offense going into training camp in the year 2020, and of the 11 players he mentions — most of whom are good, very good, or at least have a lot of upside — 10 of them are already starters. While it would be foolish to expect all of those players to be in Washington in 2020, the fact remains that the team does have a talented offensive core that has the potential to stay around for a long time.
- Tandler tweets that there is a slim chance the Redskins and QB Kirk Cousins can work out a multi-year deal by the July 17 deadline, but he confirms what we have known all along, which is that Cousins’ long-term future with the club probably won’t be settled until March 2018.
- The Cowboys signed Stephen Paea to a one-year, $2MM deal this offseason, and though the big DT struggled the past two years in Washington and Cleveland, Dallas believes he can return to form in 2017. As Brandon George of the Dallas Morning News writes, Paea will be reuniting with Rod Marinelli, whom he worked under during his best years in Chicago, and his skill-set is well-suited to the Cowboys’ 4-3 defense.
- Paul Perkins will be the Giants‘ starting running back this year, but as James Kratch of NJ.com writes, Perkins will be more of the lead back in a committee rather than a bell-cow. Kratch says Shane Vereen will get his share of carries, and Orleans Darkwa, Wayne Gallman, and Shaun Draughn all figure to be in the mix as well.
Make-Or-Break Year: Ryan Tannehill
Ryan Tannehill may be working with the most talented offensive weapons he’s ever had at his disposal in 2017, and if he wants to remain under center for the Dolphins for the long haul, he will have to make the most of those weapons. Yesterday, we looked at a discussion among ESPN’s AFC East contingent as to whether Miami should stick with Tannehill or start looking for his replacement, and while the consensus is that Tannehill is a solid quarterback whose contract looks more and more like a bargain with each passing year, the ESPN scribes do not appear to have much faith that Tannehill can bring a title to South Beach. Indeed, ESPN’s Bills reporter, Mike Rodak, believes the Dolphins need to begin preparing for their next quarterback now.
And it’s hard to blame him. It took Tannehill five seasons to post a winning record, and his skill-set and statistical output to this point in his career reasonably invoke the old adage that is trotted out for quarterbacks like Jay Cutler and Alex Smith: just good enough to lose.
Of course, Tannehill is not solely responsible for the Dolphins’ mediocre record during his tenure. After all, it’s not as though the team has been stocked with talent that was held back by substandard quarterback play. Rather, the roster has been average at best and Tannehill, whose performance has been average to a little above-average, has not been able to enhance it. But as the talent surrounding him slowly improves, it is fair to question whether Tannehill has enough ability to turn his team into a true championship contender.
What makes a conversation about Tannehill’s long-term future with Miami particularly interesting now is the way his contract is structured. After 2017, the only guaranteed money on Tannehill’s deal is $5.525MM of his 2018 salary that is currently guaranteed for injury and becomes fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2018 league year. That means that, if they really want to, the Dolphins could part ways with Tannehill after this season and the dead cap hit would be fairly minimal while the savings would be significant.
The problem is that Miami does not have a young quarterback on the roster that is pushing for playing time, and free agency is almost never an answer when it comes to quarterbacks. The 2018 rookie class may boast a fair amount of quarterback talent, so if Tannehill struggles in 2017, it would behoove the team to draft a signal-caller in the early rounds of next year’s draft and groom him behind Tannehill for a year or so (Tannehill is under club control through 2020).
So while it would be a surprise to see Tannehill somewhere other than Miami in 2018, the 2017 season will go a long way towards determining his future prospects with the Dolphins.
AFC Notes: Dolphins, Pats, Dupree
Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill believes the team’s 2017 offense will be the best he has ever played with, and James Walker of ESPN.com agrees with him. On paper, Miami does boast a great deal of talent at the skill positions, but as Walker observes, the Dolphins still have some depth problems. Jay Ajayi was a revelation in 2016, but what happens if he should go down with an injury, or if he needs to be spelled from time to time as the season progresses? Could Kenyan Drake or Damien Williams step up? And can Leonte Carroo be counted on to complement Kenny Stills, Jarvis Landry, and DeVante Parker, or even carry the load if one of those players should get hurt? Will Mike Pouncey stay healthy for a full season. Of course, every team can ask itself similar questions, but for the Dolphins’ offense to take a step forward this year, it will need to stay healthy or else get contributions from unlikely sources.
Now for more from the AFC:
- As Mike Reiss of ESPN.com observes, the Patriots don’t have many major position battles, but one to keep an eye on is at backup tight end. Of course, Rob Gronkowski and Dwayne Allen are entrenched in the top spots, but given Gronk’s health issues, the No. 3 TE could end up playing a significant role. As it currently stands, Matt Lengel and James O’Shaughnessy will compete with UDFAs Jacob Hollister and Sam Cotton for the job.
- Steelers LB Bud Dupree was drafted with the thought that he could become the next great Pittsburgh pass rusher, and given the way he performed down the stretch in 2016, the team believes the third-year pro is ready to make the leap. As Joe Rutter of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review points out, Dupree did not start his first game in 2016 until Week 14 — he began the year on injured reserve and was slowly eased back into action — but in that Week 14 matchup, Dupree played all but one snap and racked up 2.5 sacks (he ended the regular season with 4.5 sacks). He also recorded a half-sack in the playoffs while playing all but three snaps, so he appears primed for a breakout in 2017.
- The Browns finished 1-15 last season, and most think they will be lucky to get to six or seven wins in 2017, but Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com says head coach Hue Jackson is not on a short leash. The team’s front office realizes it was again looking at a multi-year overhaul when it hired Jackson, and Jackson will get a chance to see it through (assuming he wants to, of course).
- Some are wondering why Chad Henne is still on the Jaguars roster even though he does not have a pass attempt since 2014, but Ryan O’Halloran of the Florida Times-Union has a succinct answer. O’Halloran says, “Henne has experience in many offenses. He has experience working with new coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. And he has accepted being a sounding board for Blake Bortles. That’s why [he] is here.” Of course, as we heard last month, second-year player Brandon Allen could unseat Henne with an impressive preseason.
Seahawks CB DeShawn Shead Likely To Begin Season On PUP
Seahawks cornerback DeShawn Shead is likely to begin the 2017 campaign on the physically unable to perform list as he continues to recover from a torn ACL, according to Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times.
A 15-game starter a season ago, Shead played more than 1,000 defensive snaps and graded as the league’s No. 37 corner, per Pro Football Focus. Originally non-tendered as a restricted free agent, Shead re-signed with Seattle on a one-year, $1.5MM deal that includes $1MM guaranteed. If he does hit the PUP list, the 28-year-old Shead will be forced to miss the first six games of the year.
Although John Boyle of Seahawks.com suggests the club’s second cornerback job is “up for grabs,” Condotta indicates the most likely scenario involves Jeremy Lane taking over opposite Richard Sherman. In sub packages, Lane would probably slide into the slot, allowing veteran Neiko Thorpe or rookie Shaquill Griffin to play outside.
The news that Shead may not be ready for the season opener doesn’t come as a shock to the Seahawks, as head coach Pete Carroll said in March he’d be “really surprised” if Shead was able to suit up for Week 1.