More On Colin Kaepernick’s Future
It came as something of a surprise when the 49ers placed Colin Kaepernick on injured reserve yesterday, and there has been no shortage of speculation regarding Kaepernick’s future since the move was made official. Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com believes the 49ers’ decision was motivated primarily by financial considerations, as putting Kaepernick on IR now allows the team to manage the risks in his contract. On April 1, 2016, Kaepernick’s $11.9MM base salary, currently guaranteed for injury only, becomes fully guaranteed. At this point, Kaepernick has 19 weeks until April 1 to recover from his shoulder injury, which seems easy enough to do (although, as discussed below, that may not be the case). But if the 49ers were to wait, and if Kaepernick were to continue practicing or playing in games–remember, he was forced into action for several plays two weeks ago when Blaine Gabbert was temporarily sidelined–his recovery time would be lessened, and the chances that he would be recovered by April 1 would be correspondingly reduced. Now, however, he should be fully healthy by April 1, thereby allowing the team to release him should it choose to do so.
Putting Kaepernick on IR now also allows San Francisco to “spin” the injury in such a way as to enhance the quarterback’s trade value. The consensus at this point seems to be that Kaepernick injured his shoulder in the 49ers’ contest against the Packers on October 4. It will be very easy for the team to say that Kaepernick’s underwhelming performance this season can be largely attributed to the injury and his efforts to play through it, and a team desperate enough for a quarterback may buy it. Indeed, as Ian Rapoport of NFL.com writes, the 49ers received calls from three different teams at the trade deadline who were hoping to acquire Kaepernick, but those clubs could not take on his contract midseason. Rapoport adds that, given the outside interest in Kaepernick and the fact that both player and team appear anxious for a fresh start, the 49ers will continue to explore trade options in the offseason.
Neither Rapoport nor Fitzgerald believe Kaepernick will be in a 49ers uniform in 2016, but Rapoport’s information regarding Kaepernick’s recovery time could complicate matters a bit. Rapoport writes that Kaepernick is expected to undergo surgery to repair the fully torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder this Tuesday, and that recovery can last from four to six months. If the longer estimate ends up being the correct one, then Kaepernick may not be able to pass a physical by April 1, thereby forcing the team to guarantee his salary. Even if that happens, though, a trade still looks like the most likely scenario, as the relationship between the parties appears too far gone to salvage.
Sunday Roundup: O’Brien, Harbaugh, Lacy
As the early Week 10 games get underway, let’s take a look at some notes from around the league:
- Texans owner Bob McNair is understandably disappointed with his club’s performance this year under second-year head coach Bill O’Brien, and rumors persist that O’Brien could be on his way out at the end of the season while GM Rick Smith, long a McNair favorite, could stay in Houston. If that happens, Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports writes that O’Brien is “very intrigued” by the head coaching job at the University of Maryland, which is a more attractive position than some outsiders may realize. O’Brien fits Maryland’s criteria–a relatively young offensive mind who can run a quality pro-style offense–and he previously served as an assistant coach with the Terrapins. Current Chargers offensive coordinator Frank Reich is also reportedly interested in the job.
- Although it was expected that Texans TE Ryan Griffin would play this week, Aaron Wilson of The Houston Chronicle reports that the team did not activate Griffin from the Injured Reserve-Designated To Return list before a Saturday afternoon deadline, meaning he will have to wait until next week to get back into game action. As Wilson writes, Griffin has recovered from a sprained MCL suffered during the season-opener against Kansas City, but he is still working his way back into football shape.
- After Michigan’s narrow win over Indiana last night, an Indiana-based reporter began to ask Wolverines head coach–and former Colts quarterback–Jim Harbaugh if he would have any interest in the Colts head coaching position should it become available at the end of the season, as is widely expected. Per Nick Baumgardner of MLive.com, Harbaugh did not allow the reporter to finish the question, saying simply, “Stop. Just stop yourself. No comment.”
- Eddie Lacy was a surprise entry on the Packers‘ inactive list today, but he has disappointed all season. Some of Lacy’s struggles can be attributed to injury, some to poor blocking, and some to Lacy’s physical condition (he is noticeably heavier than last year). As Rob Demovksy of ESPN.com writes, Lacy is facing a crossroads in his young career, and Green Bay hopes that the emergence of James Starks, coupled with Lacy’s difficulties, will spur the latter back to his previous level of success.
- Mark Kiszla and Troy Renck of The Denver Post debate whether the Broncos should give backup quarterback Brock Osweiler some snaps down the stretch in order to preserve Peyton Manning for what will likely be his last playoff run. As long as a first-round bye is at stake, Osweiler will remain on the sidelines, unless the outcome of a particular game is no longer in doubt.
- Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com breaks down the upcoming free agent and trade markets for quarterbacks.
Latest On Los Angeles
11:37am: In a separate piece, La Canfora reports that former 49ers owner Eddie DeBartolo, Jr. is in discussions with Raiders owner Mark Davis about joining Davis’ ownership group. Davis, who has been actively seeking minority partners that would inject additional capital into his franchise in advance of the team’s potential move to LA, has previously been very reluctant to yield any controlling interest in the club to others, but given DeBartolo’s excellent reputation around the league, and given that the Carson project still needs to procure more support from other league owners to move forward, Davis may be willing to make an exception. Nothing is imminent at this time, but this is still a development worth keeping an eye on.
10:59am: We heard earlier this week that although the Carson stadium proposal put forth by the Chargers and Raiders continues to gain momentum– particularly now that Disney chairman and CEO Bob Iger has agreed to become chairman of the project–there are still a number of high-profile owners who back the Inglewood project, which would see Rams owner Stan Kroenke move his club to Los Angeles.
According to Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports, those high-profile holdouts include Jerry Jones of the Cowboys, Robert Kraft of the Patriots, Dan Snyder of Washington, Jeffrey Lurie of the Eagles, Woody Johnson of the Jets, Ziggy Wilf of the Vikings, and Steve Biscotti of the Ravens. Bengals owner Mike Brown, meanwhile, frequently abstains from voting and would therefore be counted as a “nay” vote for either project. The Bills, Falcons, and 49ers apparently hold the “swing votes.”
As La Canfora writes, a number of owners were concerned that the Spanos and Davis families’ lack of prior experience in deals of this magnitude would be a major blow to the Carson project. However, the inclusion of Iger, who would “oversee the design, construction and development of the stadium, as well as set the vision for the marketing, branding and in-game experience,” has largely assuaged that concern. But the Carson project still does not have quite enough support from other owners to move forward. Either bid would need the approval of 24 owners, and La Canfora says that while the Carson bid has grown increasingly viable with the addition of Iger, the Kroenke supporters could still quash it.
Nonetheless, Iger’s decision to come aboard at this point in the process could signal his belief that the Carson project will obtain the ownership support it needs. While the Carson team will need at least one of the current Kroenke backers to change his vote, it appears increasingly likely that will happen.
Tom Telesco Safe, Mike McCoy Unsafe?
Since the Chargers hired GM Tom Telesco and head coach Mike McCoy within a week of each other two-and-a-half seasons ago, the team has compiled a 20-21 record, which has led some to believe that both men will be relieved of their duties at the end of the 2015 season. However, as Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune writes, Telesco, at least, will get one more season to right the ship.
Acee says that three sources familiar with the inclinations of John Spanos, the team’s president of football operations, say Spanos prefers continuity among his top decision-makers, and Spanos apparently believes that injuries, more than poor roster construction, are to blame for the Chargers’ 2-7 record. Of course, Telesco’s predilection for small and speedy players could be a cause of the team’s rash of injuries, and it also has had a direct impact on the team’s performance. As Acee notes, “[t]he defense is preposterously undersized and relatively unphysical,” and even before the injuries, there were not many players on the defensive side of the ball that were worthy of a starting job.
On the other hand, Telesco did manage to piece together a contending club during his first two seasons in San Diego despite inheriting the “ashes of an aging roster,” and it’s not as though many of the players who are currently struggling with injury had any type of injury history in college that should have made Telesco wary of drafting them. While Telesco has been an abject failure in free agency–see Jacoby Jones and Derek Cox–Spanos is willing to provide his first-time GM a little leeway.
The same may not be true, however, for McCoy. Although there are no concrete rumors concerning the head coach’s job security, Acee writes that the team “is more likely to wind up with changes on the coaching staff than in the personnel department.” It is fair to wonder why McCoy, who has been tasked with fielding a competitive club with a roster that has been ravaged by injury and hamstrung by Telesco’s decision-making, should be held more responsible than Telesco himself for the team’s poor performance, but Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk may have an answer. Telesco, Florio says, is apparently willing to defer to Spanos, who is more directly involved with personnel decisions than most NFL owners and part-owners.
Spanos’ decisions, of course, will be even more significant if the team ultimately move to Los Angeles. As Florio writes, the Chargers would be competing with the Raiders for fans and revenue, so they will need a strong personnel man and head coach to lead them into a new era. Whether Telesco and McCoy are the right choices remain to be seen, but at the moment, it appears as though Telesco will have the opportunity to prove himself while McCoy may not.
AFC East Notes: Fins, Whaley, Bowles
The Dolphins are in the midst of a disappointing season, and although there is still time for the 3-5 club to reverse its fortunes and claw back into the wildcard race, there are some who are already looking ahead to next season. As Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald writes, the Dolphins can easily create a great deal of cap space in 2016 to address their weaknesses and restock their roster. For instance, Miami will almost assuredly release Greg Jennings, thereby saving $4MM, and it could also cut Jordan Cameron, who has not found his place in the offense and who will count a whopping $9.5MM against the cap next year.
Meanwhile, Ndamukong Suh and Ryan Tannehill have a combined $40.2MM cap hit in 2016, but Jackson notes that the Dolphins could reduce that number to as low as $15.1MM with several relatively simple restructures. Needless to say, such restructurings could hamstring the team in future seasons, but even if the Dolphins choose not to go that route, there are still plenty of opportunities for them to create cap room. Parting ways with Koa Misi and Earl Mitchell, for example, would free up over $6MM of space. The real question, then, is not whether the Dolphins will have the financial wherewithal to improve their fortunes, but whether they can find the right players to do so. Recent history, of course, is against them.
Now let’s take a quick swing around the other clubs in the AFC East:
- We heard several days ago that even if the Bills fall out of the playoff race in 2015, head coach Rex Ryan would still return for 2016, though GM Doug Whaley‘s future in Buffalo would be much more uncertain. But as Jay Skurski of The Buffalo News writes, the club’s 2015 draft class has been crucial to the team’s relative good fortunes this season, and although Skurski does not explicitly say so, it may be that the rookies’ cumulative success could save Whaley’s job.
- Manish Mehta of The New York Daily News believes Todd Bowles was the right hire at the right time for the Jets, but a series of questionable in-game decisions, particularly decisions related to clock management, have cast a black cloud over Bowles’ otherwise promising first season as a head coach. Bowles’ job will not be in jeopardy any time soon, but his ability to learn from his early blunders will ultimately define how successful his tenure with Gang Green will be, and how long it will last.
- When a player signs an extension prior to exploring free agency, he is often said to have left money on the table. However, as Mike Reiss of ESPNBoston.com writes, the recent case of Patriots RB Dion Lewis runs counter to that narrative. Lewis signed a two-year deal in October that led many writers to praise New England for once again securing a major contributor with a team-friendly contract. But as Reiss says, Lewis’ season-ending ACL tear shows just how fragile one’s career can be, and just how important it is for many players–particularly players who entered the league as late draft choices or undrafted free agents–to get paid as soon as possible.
Sunday Roundup: Hardy, L. McCown, Welker
As this week’s games get underway in full force, let’s take a look at some notes from around the league:
- Rick Stroud of The Tampa Bay Times, citing ESPN’s Adam Schefter, reports that the Buccaneers put together a contract structure for Greg Hardy that the Cowboys ultimately mirrored, but Tampa Bay’s contract was contingent on the club meeting with Hardy for evaluation. Once it became clear that such a meeting was not possible, the Bucs pulled the offer (Twitter links).
- Katherine Terrell of The Times-Picayune writes that Saints backup quarterback Luke McCown will get a second opinion on his back injury this week, but Terrell’s source indicates that McCown will likely require season ending surgery. As Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets, the news is fairly significant, as New Orleans has never had to rely on a rookie to back up Drew Brees.
- Ian Rapoport of NFL.com writes that free agent wide receiver Wes Welker is still waiting for his phone to ring, and that he has passed both physicals he has taken this year. He wants to play for a contender, and he has instructed his agent to reach out again to the teams on his list to see if there is a fit.
- ESPN’s Jane McManus tweets that the NFL’s investigation into Browns quarterback Johnny Manziel‘s recent encounter with police is expected to conclude this week. McManus notes that the police report and various witness testimony have complicated the investigation.
- Although there was more league-wide effort to make a deal prior to this year’s trade deadline than in seasons past, Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports writes that only one trade was made because the demand from sellers was too great. The Browns and 49ers in particular asked for compensation that rival executives believed was unreasonable.
- Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com takes a detailed look at the 2016 wide receiver free agent class and the types of contracts some of the bigger names in the class can expect to land. Fitzgerald says the best player on that list, Alshon Jeffery, is better equipped to handle a franchise tag should the Bears go that route because he is so young and the tag will not impact the way teams view his future as long as he remains healthy.
- ESPN’s Adam Caplan tweets that the Jaguars are likely to part ways with Toby Gerhart at season’s end.
- Likewise, Jordan Raanan of NJ.com believes Jon Beason has played his last game for the Giants (Twitter link).
North Notes: Thomas, Bell, Janis
As expected, the agent for Browns left tackle Joe Thomas, Peter Schaffer, has quickly moved to dispute this morning’s reports that the trade that would have sent Thomas to the Broncos fell through because Denver would not guarantee Thomas’ 2016 and 2017 salaries. Those reports, of course, also mentioned that Thomas asked Cleveland to see if it would be able to trade him. In a series of tweets, Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com passes along Schaffer’s response.
Schaffer says Denver and Cleveland never discussed Thomas’ contract, adding that if the Broncos were willing to give up a first-round pick for Thomas, they had no intention of cutting him, so there would have been no need to discuss guaranteed salaries. Furthermore, Schaffer says neither he nor Thomas asked the Browns to pursue a trade, and he is frustrated that this morning’s news made Thomas–who expressed surprise that he was almost traded, and said he would have been crushed should the deal have happened–look like a liar. Former NFL agent Joel Corry weighed in as well (via Twitter), noting that even if Thomas did ask for his 2016 and 2017 salaries to be guaranteed, that should not have killed the trade unless Schaffer convinced Denver that a holdout was coming next year.
Now let’s take a look at some more notes from the league’s north divisions:
- Mark Kaboly of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review says the Steelers, who typically refuse to entertain in-season extension talks with their players, may have to make an exception for Le’Veon Bell, who underwent season-ending knee surgery on Friday. Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports tweets that Bell is on target to return right when the 2016 season begins, but Kaboly points out that any complication would make it an in-season return. If the Steelers then choose to wait until the end of the season to negotiate with Bell, it could be too late, as the talented back would be eligible for free agency. As such, Pittsburgh may have to bite the bullet and discuss an extension with Bell in the midst of the 2016 campaign.
- The Steelers will not, however, discuss an extension with Bell until they at least get some idea of how his knee handles game action, as Corry tweets. La Canfora agrees, tweeting that although the team feels “very good” about how Bell will recover, they will shelve extension talks for a while, particularly since they will likely need to address Antonio Brown‘s contract in the near future as well.
- In his latest mailbag, Tony Grossi of ESPNCleveland.com explains why he believes Tashaun Gipson will not be with the Browns in 2016, and he looks at the dilemma head coach Mike Pettine faces in deciding whether Johnny Manziel or Josh McCown should be under center for the remainder of the year.
- Jeff Janis, the Packers‘ seventh-round selection in 2014, is the only member of the team to amass 78 or more receiving yards in a single game during the last month. However, as Michael Cohen of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel writes, Green Bay has shown a strange reluctance to consistently include Janis in the game plan, despite the team’s offensive struggles. Cohen takes a look at Janis’ journey to this point in his career as he awaits an opportunity to prove himself on a weekly basis.
- Matt Vensel of The Star Tribune describes how the Vikings, who again looked to the later rounds of the draft to address their biggest offseason need, the offensive line, have been hurt by that strategy this year. Vensel goes on to explore the team’s history of seeking out late-round gems to fill out its O-line.
Saints Would Release Sean Payton From Contract
If Sean Payton wants to be a “coaching free agent” at the end of the 2015 season, the Saints would be inclined to let him out of his contract, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (article via Conor Orr of NFL.com). Rapoport adds that New Orleans might not even have a say in the matter. Payton’s current deal includes a “change of control” clause that allows him to terminate his contract if owner Tom Benson is no longer in charge of the club. Benson, 88, is in a legal dispute with various family members regarding control of his teams (he also owns the NBA’s New Orleans Pelicans).
But regardless of Benson’s status, it appears increasingly likely that the Saints and Payton are headed for a parting of the ways. The Colts and Dolphins have been frequently mentioned as a suitor for Payton’s services should he become available, and the Giants, Lions, and Titans could all be looking for head coaches as well by season’s end. All of those clubs would be willing to pay top dollar for Payton, who has a reputation as a quarterback guru.
Payton is also relatively young (51) and has a strong track record of success. If he wants to leave, he will have plenty of options. Or, if he returns to the Saints, it could be under a new, even more lucrative deal that gives him increased control over personnel decisions.
As Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com writes, even if the Saints were to allow Payton to pursue other opportunities, an interested team would need to request the Saints’ permission to speak with Payton, and before permission is granted, the two teams would need to negotiate the terms of compensation in the event the new team would hire Payton. Evan Woodberry of The Times-Picayune tweets that he would be surprised if New Orleans allowed Payton to break his contract without at least nominal compensation, adding (via Twitter) that, absent an ownership change, it would reflect poorly on the team if it allowed a well-regarded coach to leave without receiving anything in return.
Latest On The Lions
Although the news will not exactly come as a surprise, Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports writes that Lions head coach Jim Caldwell remains “under review” and could be fired by the end of the season. Detroit, of course, began making sweeping changes to its power structure earlier this week when the club parted ways with with general manager Martin Mayhew and president Tom Lewand, and given the Lions’ tremendously disappointing season, it is widely expected that Caldwell will not be far behind.
If Caldwell is, in fact, terminated, La Canfora writes that current defensive coordinator Teryl Austin would become a strong candidate to take the reins, at least on an interim basis. Indeed, if the Lions are going to fire Caldwell anyway, it may behoove them to fire him sooner rather than later and give Austin a few weeks at the helm prior to the end of the season.
Both La Canfora and Dave Birkett of The Detroit Free Press speculate as to how the team will structure its front office moving forward. Although owner Martha Ford announced the Mayhew and Lewand firings, Birkett writes that Ford “has made a point to involve her children in major organizational decisions, and no one has her ear more now than her second-oldest daughter, Sheila Ford Hamp.” Hamp, her husband, and Rod Wood, the CEO of Ford Estates, have had an increased presence around the club in recent months, while Birkett and La Canfora report that William Clay Ford, Jr. now has a far less prominent role with the team. Per La Canfora, Hamp could find herself as team president, and Birkett writes that she will at the very least play a major part in assembling the Lions’ new front office.
Birkett adds that the team is expected to maintain the same management pattern it has employed for the past seven seasons. In other words, the Lions will select a president or chief operating officer to run the business side of the organization while adding a general manager who oversees the football side.
Of course, the job as Lions’ general manager will be an attractive one, although GM candidates will undoubtedly want the inner dynamics of team ownership to be sorted out before agreeing to accept the position. As far as on-field personnel, La Canfora writes that the future of quarterback Matthew Stafford will be one of the key issues to be addressed when the team interviews prospective GMs.
Several clubs informed La Canfora that, if they had known Detroit was on the verge of such major changes to its front office, they would have certainly pursued Stafford at the trade deadline. Those same sources indicate that, if the Lions do try to trade Stafford this offseason, they will find a very healthy market for him. The Lions, who had the misfortune of selecting early in the draft multiple times under the old collective bargaining agreement, have been consequently burdened with exorbitant contracts that have put severe restrictions on their cap flexibility. If they were to deal Stafford–and his contract is easily tradeable–they could begin to restock their roster with younger and cheaper talent. It seems, then, that the front office shakeup the Lions initiated earlier this week was just the tip of the iceberg.
Sunday Roundup: Mallett, Trades, Guion
Ryan Mallett missed the Texans‘ team charter to Miami Saturday and had to make the trip via commercial airline, per Karen Warren of The Houston Chronicle. Mallett is in uniform and will be the team’s No. 2 quarterback today, as expected–the Texans do not have another quarterback on the roster–but he will certainly be fined, and his future with the club has never been more in doubt. Mallett, who also missed a training camp practice this year–he said his cell phone battery died, so his cell phone alarm would not go off–is due $2.5MM in 2016, the second year of his two-year contract, but Aaron Wilson of The Houston Chronicle believes the team will cut ties with Mallett after the 2015 season (Twitter link). If Tom Savage was not on injured reserve, Warren says it would not be a surprise if Mallett was cut today.
Now for some more links from around the league:
- The Bears‘ Matt Forte, the 49ers‘ Vernon Davis, and the Falcons‘ Roddy White have been the biggest names included in this year’s trade rumors, but Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (article via Kevin Patra of NFL.com) does not believe any of the three will be traded, and he sets forth his rationale for why each will stay with their current clubs for the remainder of 2015.
- According to Rapoport (via Twitter), there are three notable college coaches who would be open to an NFL head coaching job after this season: UCLA’s Jim Mora, Notre Dame’s Brian Kelly, and Texas A&M’s Kevin Sumlin. In a separate tweet, Rapoport notes that NFL GMs believe Kelly would be an especially good fit with the Giants, if Big Blue has a head coaching vacancy after 2015.
- Earlier this year, Johnny Manziel was saying and doing all the right things, and he had earned considerable praise for his on- and off-field behavior and for apparently turning his life around. But after an alcohol-related incident that culminated in an encounter with police several weeks ago–an incident for which he will not be facing any charges–questions about his future in the league have resurfaced. According to Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports, Browns officials had been bracing for some sort of negative publicity, as Manziel’s demeanor and dedication had taken a turn for the worse after Josh McCown returned from injury to reclaim the starting quarterback job from Manziel, who led the club for one week. Some within the organization have been hoping to part ways with Manziel for some time, and this latest development will give that contingent a little more ammunition, as they have further proof that Manziel is not a team-first type of player.
- Packers DT Letroy Guion‘s recent legal troubles have been well-documented, but according to Michael Cohen and John Diedrich of The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Guion has faced domestic violence charges as well, which had previously gone unreported. In two of the three cases brought against Guion, the charges were dropped, and in the third, Guion paid restitution to avoid additional penalties. He has been accused of stalking and of hitting the mother of his child in the jaw. Those incidents occurred from 2011 to 2013 when Guion was with the Vikings, and if it turns out he never reported the charges to the club, he could face further discipline from the league.
- The Bears are actively scouting college quarterbacks as they prepare for the post-Jay Cutler era, and Brad Biggs of The Chicago Tribune examines two potential targets, California’s Jared Goff and Michigan State’s Connor Cook, in detail.
- Nicki Jhabvala of The Denver Post examines in detail how Broncos GM John Elway has methodically constructed Denver’s defense, which has been the league’s best in 2015.