Author: Sam Robinson

DECEMBER 14: Adding to the notion a decision to move on from Belichick was made after the Colts loss, Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated opines Kraft and Belichick have discussed their future and the manner in which they will part ways over the past several weeks. Breer’s latest appearance on the Rich Eisen Show also taps Mayo as the heir apparent to Belichick many have labeled him as for some time now (video link). As Breer notes, Mayo’s contract runs parallel to Belichick’s, so a transition from one to the other would not be complicated.

DECEMBER 13: Although the Patriots upset the Steelers in Week 14, the team still holds a 3-10 record. This has easily been Bill Belichick‘s worst season at the helm. The wildly successful HC looks no closer to convincing the Patriots to stay the course for 2024.

Long rumored to be coaching elsewhere next season, Belichick indeed appears to have four games left during his tenure as Patriots HC. Going as far back as the Week 10 loss to the Colts in Germany, NBC Sports Boston’s Tom Curran indicates (video link) ownership had made a decision it would part ways with Belichick at season’s end. Continuing on that road, ESPN.com’s Dan Graziano notes a “strong likelihood” exists the Patriots and Belichick will split in 2024.

A recent report pointed to Robert Kraft seeking an amicable solution with Belichick, who has not been linked to retirement. But the owner made comments pointing to a playoff mandate this offseason. Kraft also responded that, after Belichick cited spending as an issue, he has not limited the HC/de facto GM when it comes to adding talent. This cold war of sorts looks almost certain to end soon, and the upcoming transaction has generated interest.

With Belichick under contract through at least 2024, he is positioned to carry trade value for the Patriots. Though, it is not known exactly how much. After one report last week pegged the 71-year-old HC’s value as enough to net New England a first-round pick, another suggested tepid interest would emerge on a market that is expected to be kind once again to younger, offensive-minded candidates.

Unless nothing else can be worked out, ESPN.com’s Jeremy Fowler adds Kraft is unlikely to fire Belichick. But this does set the stage for one of the most interesting derbies for a coach in NFL history. Bruce Arians became the oldest HC ever hired; he was 66 when the Buccaneers acquired his rights from the Cardinals in 2019. Belichick will turn 72 next year. A team would be eyeing the legendary sideline presence for a shorter-term period, as he aims to break Don Shula‘s career wins record. While the Patriots obviously wanted that to happen in Foxborough, the 2023 team’s persistent struggles are set to make that next to impossible.

Belichick, who has won six Super Bowls as a head coach and two more as a coordinator (with the Giants), should not be expected to land with the Panthers, Fowler adds. Given David Tepper‘s imprint on that franchise since his 2018 purchase, he stands to have a difficult time attracting top-of-the-line candidates. But the Chargers have emerged as a prospective suitor. Some around the NFL are monitoring the Bolts as a Belichick fit, Fowler adds.

The Chargers are almost certain to fire Brandon Staley at the end of (or during?) his third season. Eleventh-year GM Tom Telesco joins Staley on the hot seat, though his ouster is not as certain. It took the Broncos first- and second-round picks (with a third-rounder coming back) to obtain Sean Payton‘s rights this year, and Belichick cost the Pats a first-rounder back in 2000. It only took a late-round pick swap for the Bucs to add Arians, but the Patriots will likely start conversations with a first-round choice. Belichick’s age complicates a trade, however.

It would be interesting to see if Belichick reveals a preference for a team behind the scenes, potentially pointing to the Pats accepting slightly lesser compensation to finalize a peaceful parting. If Belichick shows an interest in a team only to see it not offer what the Patriots are seeking in terms of draft compensation, that could put Kraft to a test. Kraft and Co. will also face a timeline, seeing as the coaching market will heat up in mid-January. Finding a solution during that timeframe will be paramount for the Pats, who will be on track to seek a traditional HC-GM setup, to form a new power structure. Jerod Mayo has been viewed as the top in-house successor option, but given the way the Belichick era is ending, will Kraft want to promote from within?

The Bolts have gone with two short-term coordinators as HCs, in Anthony Lynn and Staley, over their past two hires. While they have been linked to a similar move (in Lions two-year OC Ben Johnson), Belichick would represent quite the zag. On the other hand, pairing Justin Herbert with the modern game’s most successful HC would be an intriguing solution. Herbert’s presence will be a natural attraction for candidates, and Belichick would certainly represent star power for a franchise that has not found its footing in Los Angeles.