Poll: Best Late Round Quarterback?
Just because they don’t have the fanfare of a Johnny Manziel or Teddy Bridgewater doesn’t mean the day three quarterbacks are destined to be career backups. A handful of high-caliber NFL quarterbacks do get selected in the later rounds.
Not every quarterback drafted in the sixth round is going to turn into Tom Brady–most first-round quarterbacks won’t accomplish half of what Brady has–but many if not all of these fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh-round quarterbacks will have a chance to push for a starting job at some point in their career, either by performance or by injury.
The question is, which of these quarterbacks is going to have the best chance to find success as a starter in the NFL? That takes a combination of talent and opportunity, where some of these draftees have definite roadblocks in front of them in the form of quarterbacks entrenched as starters.
Of course, a few more quarterbacks will still come off the board in the next 50+ picks, and a couple more will be snagged as undrafted free agents. Maybe Stephen Morris of Miami, Tahj Boyd of Clemson, Garrett Gilbert of SMU, Keith Price of Washington, Brett Smith of Wyoming, or Connor Shaw of South Carolina ends up being the best of the group, although they are still waiting to hear their names called.
Which day three quarterback will have the most NFL success?
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Aaron Murray, Georgia - Chiefs 22% (178)
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A.J. McCarron, Alabama - Bengals 21% (171)
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David Fales, San Jose St. - Bears 19% (158)
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Tom Savage, Pitt - Texans 13% (110)
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Zach Mettenberger, LSU - Titans 11% (89)
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Logan Thomas, Va. Tech - Cardinals 5% (40)
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Not Drafted Yet 5% (38)
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Keith Wenning, Ball St. - Ravens 4% (31)
Total votes: 815
NFC Notes: Bucs, Rams, Bears, Cowboys, Giants, Eagles
While most of the Derek Carr chatter has centered around the Raiders’ rumored interest, ESPN’s Pat Yasinkas speculates the Buccaneers could also be eying Carr, whose older brother David was coached by Bucs offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford. Additionally, two tweets from NFL Network’s Albert Breer say Bucs second-year quarterback Mike Glennon could be a trade candidate “if things break a certain way”. It’s not that the team doesn’t like Glennon, tweets Breer. However, Carr’s mobility would make him a better system fit.
News and rumors and coming fast and furious as the draft approaches. Here’s some more NFC nuggets:
- Via Twitter, Josina Anderson relays a couple tidbits of information from Rams GM Les Snead, who says they’re still in the “flirting stage” with teams calling about the No. 2 pick. Snead also thinks Johnny Manziel might be the only quarterback teams are willing to trade up for: “That seems to be the way it’s going. So when you are in that position, you need to get to know that human being just like you are going to draft him. Like if you are going to trade your piece of real estate, it helps to know the commodity they are coming after.”
- The Bears have just nine players who they drafted before 2013, details the Chicago Tribune’s Brad Biggs, who says the team has been “marginally competitive” thanks primarily to trades and free agency. General manager Phil Emery has to turn around the team’s poor draft record in order to achieve long-term stability, however.
- Three compensatory picks in the seventh round will enable the Cowboys to target priority free agents, says ESPNDallas.com’s Todd Archer, who quotes executive VP Stephen Jones: “The seventh-round picks historically are throw-ins [in trades]. I don’t know if the league has caught up to what value a seventh-round pick is, in terms of the quote-unquote ‘charts’ that are out there. If you look at what a seventh-round pick can bring you…I see it as a great opportunity for us to take six players that can help our football team.”
- The Giants would “seriously consider” drafting Johnny Manziel at No. 12, according to Jordan Raanan of NJ.com.
- Alabama safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix wants to be an Eagle, and he’s made that clear to Eagles director of player personnel Ed Marynowitz, a former Alabama recruiter, says Jeff Mosher at CSNPhilly.com.
NFC North Notes: Vikings, Lions, Watkins, Barr
Whatever Vikings GM Rick Spielman‘s plan is, he has a lot of options heading into this weekend, writes Chris Tomasson of the Pioneer Press. Through draft-day trades, the Vikings have managed to make 29 selections across the last three seasons. Tomasson looks at some of the Vikings needs this time around, including quarterback and linebacker. More from the NFC North..
- While there’s talk that the Lions could trade up for standout wide receiver Sammy Watkins, Jeff Seidel of the Detroit Free Press says Detroit needs to stick to defense. The temptation to pair Watkins with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate is understandably strong, but Seidel says the Lions should go with a cornerback at No. 10, even though it’s not the best value. He argues, however, that if they can get a starting CB, no one will be concerned five years down the line if he was taken five picks too soon.
- While the Lions didn’t give UCLA linebacker Anthony Barr any indication of how they’d use him when the two sides met, he told Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press it would be “very enticing” to play in the same defense with Ndamukong Suh and Ziggy Ansah. “They’d probably give me a lot of one-on-one matchups,” Barr said. “You got to win those, so I think we would complement one another very well.”
- The staff at CSNChicago.com looks at offensive tackle Jake Matthews and his potential fit with the Bears. The Bears appear to be set at the O-Line but if Matthews falls to No. 14, he might have to give it some thought.
Draft Updates: Cowboys, Watkins, Ealy, Pryor
As Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk pointed out last month, since Jerry Jones have overseen Cowboys drafts, the team has traded up or down in the first round in 20 of 25 instances, or 80% of the time. That would suggest there’s a good chance Dallas won’t stand pat on Thursday, but it doesn’t sound like the club is too engaged in trade talks yet.
“We haven’t heard a lot from other clubs,” Jones said today, according to Jon Machota of the Dallas Morning News. “We haven’t found that to be particularly productive. That’s day-of-draft type dynamics. I’d be surprised if there are not trade opportunities by the time you get to where we’re going to be picking or certainly afterwards.”
Here’s more on the 2014 NFL draft, which is now just a little over 50 hours away:
- The Lions have frequently been linked to wide receiver Sammy Watkins, and Watkins confirmed today to Bart Hubbuch of the New York Post (Twitter links) that Detroit was the only team to meet with him more than once. “That sounds like they really want me, but you never know,” said the Clemson wideout.
- If two meetings are a signal of legit interest, count the Cowboys, Falcons, and Bears among the potential landing spots for defensive lineman Kony Ealy. As Hubbuch tweets, all three clubs met with Ealy multiple times.
- The Jets‘ interview of Calvin Pryor was extensive, the Louisville safety told Hubbuch (Twitter link). “They really seemed interested,” according to Pryor.
- Aaron Wilson of the National Football Post passes along updates on Florida State running back Devonta Freeman and Utah cornerback Keith McGill. According to Wilson, Freeman met with the Steelers and worked out for the Falcons, Patriots, and Dolphins, while McGill either visited or worked out for the Cowboys, Buccaneers, Redskins, and Raiders, among other teams.
Draft Notes: Caplan, Safeties, Beckham
ESPN NFL Insider Adam Caplan held a Q&A on Twitter Monday evening, and that session contained a few interesting nuggets. All links, of course, go to Twitter:
- Caplan does not believe Johnny Manziel will make it past pick No. 7, but his absolute floor is No. 13.
- He also does not think Manziel’s former teammate, Mike Evans, will make it out of the top 10.
- Caplan tweets that TE Jace Amaro could go in the first round, but is more likely a 2nd-round prospect, along with Austin Seferian-Jenkins.
- Caplan believes another high-riser, DT Aaron Donald, has turned himself into a top-10 selection.
- As he has been saying all offseason, Caplan thinks the Vikings will bolster their defense with the No. 8 overall selection.
And as beat writers and national analysts continue to churn out draft tidbits like so much butter, let’s dive into some more draft-related links:
- Barring a trade, the Colts will not pick until deep into Day 2, as their first selection is No. 59 overall. When they finally do send a draft card to the podium, Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star writes that the team will take a “long look” at safeties. Which is understandable given how thin they currently are at the position.
- However, this year’s safety class is fairly weak, and Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer says the Eagles, another team that needs safety help, will find slim pickings even in the first round. As Philadelphia GM Howie Roseman says, “I don’t think it’s a good group overall.“
- ESPNNewYork.com’s Rich Cimini tweets that if the Jets really want LSU wideout Odell Beckham, Jr., they will have to trade up to get him. At least one team above the Jet’s No. 18 overall selection is said to be in love with Beckham.
- Brian T. Smith of the Houston Chronicle tweets that seven teams called Baylor CB Demetri Goodson today, and that the Titans expressed strong interest.
- The Bears and Ravens both have mid-first round picks, and both are set at the quarterback position. As such, a run on QBs early in the first would benefit both teams by allowing talent at other positions to fall, writes Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune and Clifton Brown of CSNBaltimore.com. Biggs believe that such a run will, in fact, happen.
- In the same piece, Brown writes that the Ravens could also stand to benefit even if there is no early run on quarterbacks, as their No. 17 overall selection would be more appealing to teams in search of a top QB prospect. Although Baltimore has been widely expected to take an offensive lineman or wide receiver in the first round, Brown believes they could “pull a surprise” and take a cornerback first if someone like Justin Gilbert or Darqueze Dennard should fall.
NFC North Rumors: Bradford, Suh, Packers
The Vikings and Rams may have discussed a Sam Bradford trade, Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports told CBS Sports Radio 920 (per TurfShowTimes.com).
“There are people in the league who believe there have been discussions with the Vikings. Rams people have denied any conversations whatsoever. The bottom line is if they don’t take a quarterback, they’re not trading Sam Bradford. There’s so much uncertainty in this draft that it’d be difficult to put the horse before the cart…all these things are tied together….The Rams are going to talk to a lot of teams between now and whenever their first pick is…[and] continue to gauge the market.”
Such a trade would presumably allow the Rams, who have been linked to Johnny Manziel, to consider selecting a quarterback with either the second or 13th pick (or the eighth pick if the Vikings send a first-rounder for Bradford, which is unlikely).
Continuing with more news from the NFC North:
- Lions general manager Martin Mayhew says the team is not aiming to trade Ndamukong Suh, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press (on Twitter).
- Mayhew said one interested team did call in January to inquire on Suh, but the Lions declined the offer, tweets Tim Twentyman of DetroitLions.com. Twentyman also tweets Mayhew’s more colorful description of the discussion: “(They) offered me a box of old tube socks and I said no thank you.”
- Speaking of the Lions’ defensive line, Birkett analyzes the team’s needs at the position, noting that Detroit could add another pass rusher.
- The Packers will add a rookie quarterback to the mix behind Aaron Rodgers, Matt Flynn, and Scott Tolzien, reports Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Green Bay could look to either the late rounds of the draft or to rookie free agency to add a young signal-caller.
- The Packers, at pick No. 21, might need to be wary of the Chiefs, at pick No. 23, attempting to jump ahead of them, tweets NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport. Both teams employ similar “best player available strategies,” and Chiefs general manager John Dorsey used to work in Green Bay.
- In his latest Q&A, Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune reasons it would take a third-round pick for the Bears to swap first-round positions with the Titans, moving ahead of the Giants in order to draft Aaron Donald.
North Notes: Browns, Ravens, Vikings, Bears
Browns GM Ray Farmer has lauded receiver Sammy Watkins, but Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio thinks those comments are simply a smoke screen, and suggests that the team could be angling to select an offensive tackle in Thursday’s draft. Cleveland could be interested in Greg Robinson, Jake Matthews, or Taylor Lewan, any of whom would play right tackle (an increasingly important position, says Florio) with the Browns due to the presence of Joe Thomas on the left side of the line. In such a scenario, incumbent right tackle Mitchell Schwartz would presumably move to guard. Florio’s theory makes sense, especially when considering that the receiver class is extremely deep. Selecting an offensive tackle at pick No. 4, a quarterback at No. 26, and then potentially a corner and a receiver in rounds two and three might be exactly what the Browns brass is hoping to pull off.
More notes from the North divisions:
- Farmer and the Browns, as noted, hold the fourth and 26th overall selections in the draft, the same picks that Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome inherited when took over as Baltimore’s GM in 1996. Per Greg Bedard of TheMMQB.com, Newsome offers Farmer some advice on how to handle the scenario: “Just to trust the information that he has. Let the information make your decisions,” said the veteran executive. “If you spend nine months preparing for a draft and you set your board, why are you going to get to game day and then change? That never works, whether you’re calling plays, calling defenses or drafting players.”
- Speaking of Newsome, he is glad the Ravens aren’t in the market for a starting quarterback, and hopes many QBs are taken before Baltimore picks at No. 17, according to Clifton Brown of CSNBaltimore.com. “If as many as three, four, or five quarterbacks go before 17, that means other players from other positions will slide down to us,” Newsome said. “There will be more players for us to choose from.”
- Vikings GM Rick Spielman tried to dispel the media’s notions that the team would draft a quarterback with the eighth overall selection, but noted “there are lots of possibilites,” tweets Ben Goessling of ESPN.com.
- In a series of tweets, Matt Vensel of the Minneapolis Star Tribune opines that Spielman cautioned there could be a “surprise” at pick No. 8, and that linebacker was the first position mentioned by the Vikings GM.
- The Bears’ defense has already been infused with talent this offseason, with player additions ranging from Jared Allen, Lamarr Houston, and Willie Young, to coaching upgrades like Paul Pasqualoni (defensive line) and Reggie Herring (linebackers), but as Dan Wiederer of the Chicago Tribune writes, the job isn’t done, and the draft will be critical if the Bears wish to contend in 2014.
NFC North Notes: Bears, Vikings, Lions
Earlier this afternoon, we took a look at a possible extension between Mike McCarthy and the Packers. Now, let’s move on to some more notes from the rest of the NFC North:
- The Bears’ cornerback positions are filled for now, believes John Mullin of CSNChicago.com, and he grades corner as only a “medium” priority for the team heading into Thursday’s draft. Due to the age of Chicago’s top pass defenders, however, I wouldn’t at all be surprised if the Bears used the fourteenth overall pick on a cornerback, especially if defensive tackle Aaron Donald has already been selected.
- Jordan Palmer looks to be the early favorite for the Bears’ backup quarterback job behind starter Jay Cutler, although the team could look to pick a developmental QB later in the draft, writes Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com.
- The Vikings have never been great at manipulating the compensatory pick system, according to Mark Craig of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, who also looks at the success of Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome, who is considered by many to be a master of the compensatory machine.
- Blake Bortles, C.J. Mosley, and Donald are among a list of ten players who could be available and intriguing to the Vikings at pick No. 8, per the Minneapolis Star Tribune staff.
- We noted more than a month ago that the Lions were looking for a backup quarterback after losing Shaun Hill to the Rams, and now Chris McCosky of the Detroit News reports that the team will likely look to the draft to fill the position. Within the article, ESPN’s Jon Gruden mentioned David Fales and Tajh Boyd as late-round options for Detroit.
- Tim Twentyman of DetroitLions.com lists his top five need areas for the Lions, and among them are defensive end, linebacker, and receiver.
Draft Notes: Linemen, Lobato, Hughes, Boone
Few are more plugged in on scouts’ takes on draft prospects than the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Bob McGinn — yesterday, we looked at his reports on the running back class, and today we’ll examine his profiles of the available offensive lineman.
Greg Robinson was the highest rated offensive tackle, as one scout called the Auburn star “bust-proof,” and another lauded his power, punch, and speed. However, one evaluator did say Robinson might end up at right tackle rather than as a blind-side protector, and another scout said “I love [him], but what hurts him is he doesn’t know how to pass block yet. [But] [i]t’s not his fault. It’s the scheme.”
Zack Martin took the top spot among offensive guards, with one scout opining: “Love him. Not a real bulky guy. All I know is he’s got a great jam and can punch the hell out of you. Nobody beats him. Everybody keeps wanting to move him inside. Well, you better have somebody that can block those outside rushers.” Another scout stated the Notre Dame product is “as safe a pick as there is.” Among centers, Weston Richburg and Marcus Martin were given the highest grades. The entire piece is worth reading for expert opinions on prospects.
More draft notes:
- Northern Colorado quarterback Seth Lobato is drawing some pre-draft buzz — he talked with the Patriots during his Pro Day and worked out for the Dolphins, according to Aaron Wilson of the National Football Post.
- We noted yesterday that Indiana receiver Kofi Hughes met with the Redskins, and now Wilson reports that he also visited with the Bears, Colts, and Bengals.
- Late-round prospect Kadron Boone of LSU is also garnering interest, having received phone calls from about a third of the league, as per Wilson.
- Wilson has even more, as he adds on Twitter that Minnesota State defensive end Chris Schaudt is drawing interest from teams as a 3-4 outside linebacker.
- ESPN draft guru Todd McShay thinks Alabama offensive tackle Cyrus Kouandjio should have returned to school for the 2015 season, but allows that he could be a good value as a second-round pick, writes Andrew Gribble of Alabama.com.
- Andrew Sachais of Philly.com uses statistical correlations to examine the value of a quarterback in the draft, and, in what is sure to be disheartening to fans pinning their hopes on newly-selected QBs, finds that there is only about a coin-flip’s chance in discovering a franchise signal-caller.
Draft Notes: RBs, WRs, Team Tendencies
For those who like to hear what scouts have to say, there’s nobody more connected than Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. In his latest “Rating the NFL draft prospects” series, McGinn looks at the running back position and ranks his top-10, based on what he’s seen and what he’s heard from scouts.
At the top is Ohio State’s Carlos Hyde. “Complete player,” one scout told McGinn. “Stud. He’s powerful. Great athlete. Great run feel. Catches the ball very well. He’ll block. Picks up all the protections, even calls some protections. He’s a good-hearted kid but he needs mentoring.”
Behind Hyde are LSU’s Jeremy Hill and Washington’s Bishop Sankey, the latter drawing comparisons to Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith. Rounding out his top-five are Tre Mason of Auburn and Andre Williams of Boston College.
In a complement to his running bank rankings, McGinn examines how the position has become devalued over the years. NFL teams, on average, draft 1.8 runners in the first round this decade compared to 4.9 in the ’80s, a precipitous drop.
More draft notes from around the league…
- The Charlotte Observer takes a look at the 79 wide receivers taken in the first and second rounds of the past 10 drafts. According to the Observer’s 2013 rankings, about one in four — 21 of 79 — rank among the Top 40.
- If you’re curious of a certain general manager’s drafting habits, National Football Post’s Tony Villioti dug through 10 seasons worth of results for some gleaning insight. A few notable items, of which there are many: The Jets drafted just one receiver in the first three rounds (the fewest), the Ravens and Bengals drafted 17 and 16 receivers, respectively, and only four teams — Bears, Cowboys, Saints, Texans — did not draft a quarterback in rounds 1-3 in the 10-year study.
- In defense of the NFL combine, Peter Keating of ESPN The Magazine (subscription required) writes that the bench press and 40-yard dash can predict the future success of players in the league.
- Citing the player’s postseason draft success and his collegiate résumé, ESPN Insider Louis Riddick (subscription required) names Pittsburgh defensive tackle Aaron Donald as the best defensive prospect in the 2014 draft class.
- With picks made by beat writers of each of the 32 teams, Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times passes along this mock draft with only two quarterbacks going in the first round. Also of note is the Dolphins‘ first-round pick, Central Florida quarterback Blake Bortles.