In advance of March 14, the start of free agency in the NFL, Pro Football Rumors will detail each team’s three most glaring roster issues. We’ll continue this year’s series with the Detroit Lions, who missed the postseason in 2017 and subsequently replaced head coach Jim Caldwell with former Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia.
Pending Free Agents:
- Ezekiel Ansah, DE
- Don Barclay, OL
- Jace Billingsley, WR (ERFA)
- Nick Bellore, LB
- Don Carey, S
- Rodney Coe, DT (ERFA)
- Brandon Copeland, DE (RFA)
- Darren Fells, TE
- Dwight Freeney, DE
- D.J. Hayden, CB
- Jordan Hill, DT
- Kerry Hyder, DE (ERFA)
- Zac Kerin, G (RFA)
- Mike James, RB
- T.J. Jones, WR (RFA)
- Nevin Lawson, CB
- Don Muhlbach, LS
- Haloti Ngata, DT
- Kasey Redfern, P (ERFA)
- Christian Ringo, DT (ERFA)
- Greg Robinson, T
- Jake Rudock, QB (ERFA)
- Travis Swanson, C
- Tahir Whitehead, LB
- Tavon Wilson, S
- Paul Worrilow, LB
- Zach Zenner, RB (RFA)
Top 10 Cap Hits for 2018:
- Matthew Stafford, QB: $26,500,000
- T.J. Lang, G: $10,916,666
- Golden Tate, WR: $9,351,250
- Marvin Jones, WR: $8,600,000
- Eric Ebron, TE: $8,250,000
- Glover Quin, S: $6,516,666
- Ricky Wagner, T: $5,900,000
- Darius Slay, CB: $5,576,269
- DeAndre Levy, LB: $4,800,000 (dead money)
- Theo Riddick, RB: $3,887,500
Other:
- Projected cap space (via Over the Cap): $52,184,502
- 20th pick in draft
Three Needs:
1) Reset the running game: The Lions famously have gone four-plus years without a running back posting 100 yards in a single game — Reggie Bush last managed that feat in 2013, and he’s also the last Detroit runner to put up 1,000 yards rushing over a full season. Those struggles have lead the Lions to address their backfield in recent years, but 2015 second-round pick Ameer Abdullah hasn’t been able to hold up as an every-down back, while Theo Riddick excels far more as a receiver than as a between-the-tackles runner. After ranking dead last in rushing yards per attempt a season ago, Detroit needs to acquire a new running back in the coming months.
The most obvious free agent target for the Lions should be Dion Lewis, as both he and new head coach Matt Patricia spent the past three years with the Patriots. Detroit general manager Bob Quinn is a former New England staffer, as well, and was the club’s director of pro staffing when Lewis was signed to a futures contract prior to the 2015 campaign. As far as fits go, Lewis and the Lions are like a glove, and Detroit should easily be able to meet Lewis’ reported asking price of $18MM over a three-year term.
While Lewis may have been viewed as a rich man’s Abdullah as recently as last season, he proved in 2017 that he’s capable of being the foundation of a rushing offense. He handled 180 carries last year (eight more than he’d managed over the first four years of his career) and averaged five yards per rush. Lewis also finished first in Football Outsiders’ DYAR (which measures value over a replacement running back), second in DVOA (per-play value), and fourth in success rate (how a back keeps his team “on schedule” with regards to down and distance). Throw in his efforts in the passing game — 32 receptions and a No. 6 ranking in pass-blocking efficiency, per Pro Football Focus — and Lewis is just about as complete a running back as you’ll find on the open market.
Of course, Lewis isn’t the only runner the Lions could consider this offseason. Fellow Patriots free agent Rex Burkhead was given 100 total touches over 10 games in 2017, and could be an option for Detroit if he’s not re-signed by New England. Carlos Hyde and Isaiah Crowell could both offer a bruising style that would mesh well with Abdullah and Riddick. And C.J. Anderson, a rumored candidate for release in Denver, might be on the table, especially given that former Broncos offensive line coach Jeff Davidson is now on staff in Detroit.
The Lions may also look to the draft to find another running back, and while I wouldn’t typically advocate selecting a runner in the first round, the Lions are sitting late enough on Day 1 that a first-round RB contract wouldn’t break the bank. If Saquon Barkley is taken in the top five picks, for example, he’ll receive a four-year contract that pays him nearly $7MM annually. That would immediately place him within the top five highest-paid running backs in the entire NFL. The financial value just isn’t there to make a top-10 running back worth the risk, but the Lions are picking 20th overall. Any RB Detroit takes at that point will only earn roughly $3MM per year, a more than palatable cost.
Barkley will be long gone by the time Detroit gets to turn in its card, but there are other backs who will be worth a Day 1 or 2 selection. Georgia’s Sony Michel should be available at pick No. 20, and Lance Zierlein of NFL.com says the 215-pounder will “drop his pads and meet force with force when it’s time to finish.” Derrius Guice (LSU), Rashaad Penny (San Diego State), and Nick Chubb (Georgia) are among the other burly runners that could come off the board before Day 3.
2) Fix the interior offensive line: Now entering his second season as the Lions’ general manager, Quinn has shown a willingness to pay for offensive line upgrades thus far during his Detroit tenure. Last year, the Lions opted to move on from competent linemen Larry Warford and Riley Reiff, replacing them with fellow free agents T.J. Lang and Ricky Wagner. Unfortunately, Detroit will need to bring in at least one addition lineman this offseason, as the club’s front five was sub-par in 2017.
The problem for the Lions’ line resides on the interior: while guards Lang and Graham Glasgow offered acceptable play last year, longtime center Travis Swanson ranked as the worst pivot in the league a season ago, per PFF. Detroit was dead last in adjusted line yards, and also finished last in ALY when running up the middle. Swanson is now a free agent, and given Quinn’s focus on offensive line upgrades during his Lions tenure, I’d expect the club to move on from its 27-year-old center.Read more
Given that they’ve already spent hefty sums to bring in Lang and Wagner and will need to consider an extension for left tackle Taylor Decker in the relatively near future, the Lions may not be willing to enter the top end of the free agent offensive line market for a second consecutive season. As such, if Detroit does add another body to its interior mix, it likely won’t be Weston Richburg, Andrew Norwell, or any other player of that caliber. Instead, a mid-tier signing — Matt Slauson offers positional versatility, while John Sullivan rebounded during his first season in Los Angeles — makes more sense.
Even if they do sign a middling free agent, the Lions should still use multiple draft selections on offensive linemen. Guard/center will be the focus for Detroit, but picking up a new swing tackle may also be on the club’s to-do list (if not, Quinn needs only look at Greg Robinson‘s game tape to remember what a poor left tackle performance does to a front five). Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com and Todd McShay of ESPN.com each sent an interior linemen to Detroit in their most recent mock drafts, with Ohio State’s Billy Price and Georgia’s Isaiah Wynn heading to the Motor City in Jeremiah and McShay’s respective projections.
3) Remake the defensive line: Like his tutor Bill Belichick, Patricia probably won’t stick with just one defensive system and force his players to adapt. Belichick often waits out the free agent market and draft board for good deals, and then formulates his defensive scheme around his available talent. I’d expect Patricia to do the same, so instead of targeting specific free agents, the Lions might see who falls to them and then solidify their defensive plan.
Having said that, Detroit needs help all over its defense, but the emphasis — and the largest questions — should be along the defensive line. The club’s agenda will be affected first and foremost by what it does with pending free agent defensive Ezekiel Ansah, who will hit the open market coming off a 12-sack campaign. Michael Rothstein of ESPN.com recently argued Detroit should utilize the franchise tag on Ansah (likely price tag: $17.5MM), and it’s difficult to argue with his logic.
Although he’s fresh off a season where he excelled at taking down opposing quarterbacks, Ziggy has posted an up-and-down career to this point. Perhaps I’m leaning too heavily on Patricia’s New England ties, but the Patriots haven’t been open to large contracts for sack artists in recent years. Instead, Belichick & Co. have focused more on stout run defenders who can also rush the passer if need (see: Trey Flowers). As such, I wouldn’t the Lions to hand a hefty long-term deal to Ansah. While the franchise tender could represent a compromise for both sides, Detroit will likely let Ansah walk rather than agree to a multi-year extension.
Whether or not Ansah sticks around, the Lions’ plan should include drafting a young defensive end and signing a free agent defensive tackle. The interior defender market is much stronger than edge rusher market, so Detroit should be able to find an affordable tackle, perhaps on Day 2 or 3 of the free agent period. Sheldon Richardson and Dontari Poe likely aren’t fits for the Lions, but Star Lotulelei and DaQuan Jones could be on the club’s radar if they’re not retained by the Panthers and Titans, respectively. The Giants’ Jay Bromley (25) and the Raiders’ Justin Ellis (27) both offer youth, while — again dipping into the New England well — Alan Branch would be solid veteran addition if he’s cut by the Patriots.
Defensive end-wise, Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN.com recently mocked Sam Hubbard (Ohio State) to Lions, but there are other edge options who might make more sense in the Motor City. Detroit just hired former Boston College defensive line coach Paul Pasqualoni as its defensive coordinator, so BC’s Harold Landry — who has been shooting up draft boards — should be a consideration for the Lions at pick No. 20. Similarly, former UT-San Antonio defensive line coach Bo Davis has taken the same job in Detroit, making UTSA product Marcus Davenport a logical target for Quinn, Patricia, & Co.
