Jets Name QB Geno Smith Starter For Now
Since the end of the 2025 NFL season, the Jets have almost completely turned over their quarterbacks room. After shuffling three starting quarterbacks last year, head coach Aaron Glenn has named his starter for the 2026 campaign early, according to Judy Battista of NFL Network. 
Traded away is Justin Fields, while Tyrod Taylor and Hendon Hooker have walked in free agency, leaving only undrafted rookie Brady Cook remaining from last year’s roster. The first to join Cook in the room was former Patriots starting quarterback Bailey Zappe. After leaving New England, Zappe had gone back and forth between the Chiefs and Browns over the past two years before signing a reserve/futures deal with the Jets in February.
The final passer to join the room was a familiar face as the Jets traded a sixth-round pick to Las Vegas for a seventh-rounder and the quarterback they drafted in the second round out of West Virginia 13 years ago. The Jets haven’t made the playoffs since the 2010 season. In the 15 campaigns since then, New York has had a losing record in all but three of those seasons. The first was an 8-8 campaign the season immediately after they last made the playoffs. The second and third occurred with Geno Smith on the roster, when he led his team to an 8-8 record as a rookie in 2013 and when he backed up Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2015’s 10-6 campaign. It’s been 10 straight losing seasons since then.
After rediscovering success in Seattle, where he earned Pro Bowl honors in two straight years and helped the Seahawks to three winning seasons, Smith fell back to earth during his lone year in Vegas. He failed to reach 20 touchdowns for the first time since reestablishing himself as a starter in the NFL, led the league with 17 interceptions and 55 sacks taken, and worst of all, won only two of 15 games as a starter, leading to the Raiders receiving the No. 1 overall pick, which they will use to draft his eventual replacement.
Despite the down year, Glenn has expressed the utmost confidence in the veteran. In an interview with Battista, Glenn called Smith a “bonafide starter,” going on to say that “there is no doubt in (his) mind that (they) brought a competent starter” to the team. When Battista sought further clarity that Smith was being named the starter, Glenn quickly replied, “No doubt about it, he’s our guy.”
According to Connor Hughes of SportsNet New York, while Smith may be the starter for the Jets this year, the 35-year-old is clearly not the team’s future at the position. Despite the team hosting such passers as Ty Simpson and Drew Allar in recent weeks, Hughes asserts that this year’s draft will likely be used to build a talented team around outside the quarterback position, and the future at quarterback will be whoever they decide to draft in 2027.
For now, though, Smith is the bridge starter to carry the team until his successor is drafted and, perhaps, until his successor is ready after sitting and learning for a bit. Returning back to where his journey first began, Smith has an opportunity to pave a successful pathway for the Jets’ next potential franchise quarterback, helping them avoid the trials and tribulations he faced as a talented young passer who just needed time to bloom.
Raiders Trade QB Geno Smith To Jets
Geno Smith is heading back to where his career began. The Raiders have worked out a trade which will send the veteran quarterback to the Jets, as first reported by ESPN’s Adam Schefter. The deal is now official.
Vegas will send Smith and a seventh-round pick in this year’s draft to New York for a sixth-round selection this year, Schefter adds. The Raiders, meanwhile, are retaining most of Smith’s base salary for 2026, according to NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero. The Jets will pay him near the league minimum as a result, with Schefter adding a restructure was agreed to prior to the trade.
Per Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated, Vegas will be on the hook for $16.5MM with New York taking on $3.3MM. Smith will thus receive a $1MM raise compared to the guaranteed figure he was owed prior to this swap as a result.
Smith’s Raiders tenure was known to be ending after just one season with the team preparing to draft Fernando Mendoza first overall in April. Vegas was willing to release the 35-year-old in the event no trade suitors could be found. Instead of Smith becoming a free agent tomorrow, he will begin a second stint with the Jets.
The former second-rounder is at the Jets’ facility, Dianna Russini of The Athletic notes Smith has already conducted a physical, paving the way for this swap to be made official. One major move at the quarterback position has now been taken care of for New York, although more changes will be coming. One year remains on Justin Fields‘ contract, but he is not expected to be back with the team in 2026. Tyrod Taylor is a pending free agent.
Smith began his career as a Jets draftee, and he spent four seasons with the team. That included a two-year run (2013-14) as New York’s starter, a stint which did not go as planned to say the least. A lengthy spell without another QB1 opportunity came to an end when Smith took over starting duties for Seattle following the Russell Wilson trade.
Smith spent three years atop the Seahawks’ depth chart, earning Comeback Player of the Year honors in 2022. That season included a league-leading 69.8 completion percentage and a career-high 30 touchdown passes. Smith secured a second straight Pro Bowl nod the following year, but the arrival of new head coach Mike Macdonald in 2024 did not result in a long-term Seattle deal being worked out. Instead, the Seahawks targeted Sam Darnold last offseason and traded Smith to Vegas, allowing him to reunite with Pete Carroll.
After a disastrous season together, Carroll and Smith are now out of the fold. The latter will look to rebuild his value in a familiar setting, although he does not have experience playing under Jets head coach Aaron Glenn or offensive coordinator Frank Reich. A quick acclimation period would of course be welcomed by all involved, with Glenn no doubt under pressure to guide New York to more success in Year 2 than the team had during his debut on the sidelines. The Vikings were mentioned as a potential Smith suitor, and NFL insider Jordan Schultz confirms there was “real interest” on the part of Minnesota. The team’s list of free agent targets has now been thinned out, however.
Reich has a history with Carson Wentz, and a reunion between those two has been mentioned as something to watch for. In general, it will be interesting to see if the Jets add another veteran passer in free agency with Smith now in the fold. Meanwhile, the Raiders could be in the market for an experienced option as insurance for Mendoza’s rookie campaign.
Improved play on offense will be key in 2026 for the Jets, a team which made a number of defensive splashes yesterday. It will be interesting to see how Smith fares in his New York return and what kind of QB room he will be in by the time the season begins.
Jets Could Add 2 Veteran QBs; Carson Wentz At Top Of List
The Jets need a quarterback. More specifically, they need a young, long-term face of the franchise, the likes of which they have lacked since Joe Namath.
But the 2026 draft class only has one high-end quarterback prospect: Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, who is widely expected to be drafted by the Raiders with the first overall pick. A number of college passers decided to return to school for the 2026 season, leaving New York high and dry with the No. 2 selection.
The Jets would be best served by waiting until the quarterback-rich 2027 draft, in which the No. 1 pick will not be required to land an exciting young passer. In the meantime, though, they will need someone to pass the ball to Garrett Wilson, Mason Taylor, and Adonai Mitchell.
That ‘someone’ could very well be two players. The Jets could take a similar approach to their quarterback room as their stadium-mates did last year. The Giants signed both Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston in free agency – which did not stop them from trading up into the first-round to draft Jaxson Dart – with the intention of letting the starting competition play out without too much pressure on any one player.
Of the available free agents, new Jets offensive coordinator Frank Reich prefers a familiar face, per SNY’s Connor Hughes: Carson Wentz. The two worked together in Indianapolis in 2021 when Reich was the Colts’ head coach. He traded for Wentz despite his sharp regression in Philadelphia the year before, and the former No. 1 pick posted a resurgent season. The Colts moved on from Wentz the following offseason, though the split was driven more by the front office and ownership than by Reich and his coaching staff.
Geno Smith, who was released on Friday, is another option named by Hughes. So, too, is Jacoby Brissett, though he is still under contract with the Cardinals and they do not intend to move him. However, if Jimmy Garoppolo follows Mike LaFleur from Los Angeles to Arizona, Brissett could become available for the Jets.
The Jets have also been connected with veteran linebacker Alex Anzalone, but they are expected to have competition for his signature. They could then pivot to Micah McFadden, a 2022 fifth-rounder who started 35 games for the Giants in his first three NFL seasons but missed virtually all of 2025 due to a foot injury. The Jets have interest in McFadden, but so do the Giants, via both Hughes and ESPN’s Jordan Raanan. Depending on the state of his foot, the 26-year-old may need to consider a one-year, ‘prove-it’ deal, but interest from multiple teams could give him enough leverage for a better deal.
Raiders To Release QB Geno Smith
Geno Smith will indeed prove to be a one-and-done passer in Vegas. Barring a last-minute trade, the Raiders will release the veteran, as first reported by ESPN’s Adam Schefter. 
Smith’s future has been in question since Vegas secured the No. 1 pick in April’s draft. Earlier this week, signs increasingly pointed to a release taking place in the event no trade partner was found. Suitors will no doubt wait for Smith to become a free agent before making a push to acquire him.
The 35-year-old does not appear to be particularly downtrodden over today’s development, given his reaction on social media. Smith will become one of many veteran quarterbacks on the market with free agency looming. A long-term commitment would come as a surprise, but NFL insider Jordan Schultz reports multiple teams are expected to show interest in this case.
The Seahawks brought in Klint Kubiak as their offensive coordinator last offseason. That set up a potential pairing with Smith, but with Seattle bringing in Sam Darnold Smith wound up being dealt to Vegas. Immediately after the Super Bowl, Kubiak was hired by the Raiders as their new head coach. Once again, though, no time will be spent with Smith in his case. A parting of ways points even further to Vegas selecting Fernando Mendoza first overall in April.
That remains the widespread expectation, but Dianna Russini of The Athletic cautions the Raiders’ preference would be to have Mendoza sit at the beginning of his rookie campaign. If insurance for the Heisman winner is to be added, Russini points to free agency as the route GM John Spytek and Co. will take. Vegas is not lacking in cap space, so finances will not be an issue when QB options are evaluated.
Cutting Smith will yield $8MM in cap savings while generating a dead money charge of $18.5MM. He was on course to see $8MM in 2026 compensation become guaranteed on March 13, leading to the timing of this decision. Smith will join Kyler Murray and – in all likelihood – Tua Tagovailoa as starting quarterbacks released by their respective teams. Their free agent prospects will be worth watching closely once the new league year begins next week.
In 2022, Smith earned Comeback Player of the Year honors with a strong Seattle showing. The team’s Russell Wilson replacement led the NFL in completion percentage that season, and in the following year he secured a second straight Pro Bowl nod. Smith landed a new Seahawks contract in 2023, and he inked a two-year, $75MM pact upon arrival in Vegas. A less lucrative deal is no doubt coming this time around after the former second-rounder topped the league in interceptions (17) in 2025.
Offensive success proved highly difficult to come by for Vegas this past season. Kubiak and a much different coaching staff is now in place, and his ability to develop Mendoza and a core led by tight end Brock Bowers and running back Ashton Jeanty will be critical moving forward. Smith will not be part of that effort, as his next NFL opportunity awaits.
Raiders Planning To Release Geno Smith If No Trade Comes Together?
The Raiders are all but guaranteed to use the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft on Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza. The Heisman Trophy winner and national champion’s forthcoming arrival leaves veteran quarterback Geno Smith‘s future with the Raiders up in the air.
First-year Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak said last week that Smith is “definitely one of those options we’re considering” as a starter. While Kubiak is not publicly closing the door on Smith, trading or releasing him look like more realistic possibilities.
The Vikings, who at least want credible competition for J.J. McCarthy, are reportedly interested in Smith. The 35-year-old could intrigue other teams seeking a stopgap starter or a decent backup, though he’s one of many flawed options for clubs to consider. If nobody is willing to trade for Smith, the Raiders will indeed release him, according to Vincent Bonsignore of the California Post.
With the Raiders expecting to take sizable steps forward last year, they sent a third-round pick to the Seahawks for Smith in March. The swap reunited Smith and head coach Pete Carroll, who meshed in Seattle from 2020-24. The Raiders wasted little time in handing Smith a two-year, $75MM extension after acquiring him.
It quickly became clear that the Smith pickup, Carroll’s hiring and the extension were all misfires for owner Mark Davis, part-owner Tom Brady and general manager John Spytek. Over 15 starts last season, Smith threw an NFL-worst 17 interceptions (with just 19 touchdowns) and finished with the league’s second-lowest QBR. The Raiders went 2-13 in Smith’s starts and 3-14 overall, securing the No. 1 pick and leading to a one-and-done stint for Carroll.
As part of Smith’s contract, the Raiders are scheduled to pay him another $8MM in guaranteed money if he is still on their roster on Day 3 of the league year. Moving on from Smith by then would add $8MM to the Raiders’ war chest for free agency. At approximately $89.08MM, Las Vegas already has the second-most cap space in the league. Trading or releasing Smith would give them even more room to build a better roster around Mendoza.
Vikings Considering Kyler Murray, Geno Smith; Team Interested In Tua Tagovailoa?
We have been hearing for some time that the Vikings plan to add competition for quarterback J.J. McCarthy this offseason. During a recent appearance on the Scoop City podcast, Dianna Russini of The Athletic threw cold water on the notion that a Minnesota-Kirk Cousins reunion could be in the cards, though she did acknowledge that the Vikes could look to add to their QB room (video link).
Russini reiterated Minnesota still wants to develop McCarthy in the hopes that he can live up to his first-round draft status, and ESPN’s Dan Graziano likewise confirms the Vikings are not ready to give up on the Michigan product. Still, the club seems to want to make McCarthy earn the starting job in 2026, and in addition to Cousins, names like Kyler Murray and Anthony Richardson have been floated as possibilities.
There may be mutual interest between the Vikings and Richardson, who would be acquired via trade with the Colts. As ESPN’s Kevin Seifert noted last month, a trade could be the most likely way for Minnesota to add McCarthy competition, because a free agent with options may not want to sign without assurances that they will be given first crack at the QB1 role. Other trade possibilities, per Graziano, include the Eagles’ Tanner McKee and the Texans’ Davis Mills.
Mills was linked to the Vikings in a November report, just like Murray was. Graziano says signs continue to point to a Murray release, which means he will be a free agent in short order (and therefore may not want to hitch his wagon to a team that still has high hopes for its incumbent starter).
Just as Arizona is likely to cut Murray, the Dolphins are expected to release Tua Tagovailoa in the near future, with Graziano confirming the cut will likely be made with a post-June 1 designation. With respect to their possible free agent targets, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler (in the same Graziano piece linked above) reports the Vikings have Murray and the Raiders’ Geno Smith in their first tier of preferred options, with Cousins and Tagovailoa in the second tier.
Smith, though, may not make it to the open market. As our Nikhil Mehta recently suggested, it may behoove the Raiders to retain Smith as a mentor for Fernando Mendoza, whom Las Vegas is all but certain to select with the top pick in this year’s draft. Per Graziano, coaches from multiple QB-needy outfits are anxious to see if the Raiders will release Smith, as they believe the 35-year-old was held back by the Silver-and-Black’s offensive system in 2025. The Raiders may feel the same and could therefore keep Smith in the fold.
If they do choose to part ways, Fowler believes the Vikings make plenty of sense as a landing spot. He adds that many quarterbacks view Minnesota as an attractive destination, likely due to the presence of head coach Kevin O’Connell and wide receiver Justin Jefferson (though again, it is possible that McCarthy and Minnesota’s hopes for him could act as something of a deterrent).
It still seems fair to expect the Vikings to add a QB. Whether they can lure a high-profile player like Murray or Tagovailoa or will need to execute a trade for a passer like Mills or McKee is the question.
QB-Needy Teams Have Options Through Draft, Free Agency
It’s really not a surprise at this point in time, but reports indicate that Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza getting drafted No. 1 overall by the Raiders is all but a sure thing. Mendoza cemented himself as the likely first overall pick even before the Hoosiers’ championship run through the College Football Playoff secured his Heisman win, and as soon as Las Vegas secured the top pick in the draft, Mendoza’s move to Nevada became a near certainty. 
Nothing is ever 100% sure, though, and there is always a possibility that the Raiders look at next year’s wide crop of quarterback prospects and an historic trade offer for the No. 1 overall pick and choose that route.
Overwhelmingly, though, pundits across the media spectrum believe that Vegas will retain their top overall pick and make things official with Mendoza. During an appearance on The Herd with Colin Cowherd, Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer dropped a number of quotes, saying, “I would be stunned if (Mendoza) didn’t go No. 1, right? I think it’s highly unlikely he goes anywhere but Vegas.”
Over at ESPN, a crew of reporters polled several NFL executives on the topic at the Senior Bowl, Shrine Bowl, and Super Bowl, and eight executives believed the Raiders would keep the pick, while no votes were tallied against that possibility. Separately, ESPN’s Rich Cimini asked Jets general manager Darren Mougey about the possibility of reaching out to Vegas to inquire about moving up, and he stated pretty plainly, “I don’t think that’s happening.” Courtney Cronin, another ESPN contributor, added to the crowd yesterday with a piece on Mendoza’s meeting with the Raiders and his excitement at the prospect of potentially being mentored by minority team owner Tom Brady.
Now, for teams with a need at quarterback not located in Sin City, the other obvious solutions are to go after one of the top free agent quarterbacks available — namely, Green Bay’s Malik Willis or Indianapolis’ Daniel Jones — or attempt to trade for San Francisco’s Mac Jones. After impressive 2025 contributions, both Joneses are expected to stay home, though, and only one team will get to claim Willis as a solution, but there is still a solvable equation for the teams that remain.
According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, the teams that are still looking to acquire a passer after the above dust settles will be able to look toward either the litany of veteran quarterbacks with starting experience available for cheap or the numerous rookie passers who may be worth taking a flyer on or some combination of both.
Rapoport points to several veteran former starters who are thought to be release candidates and who may, in the same vein as Russell Wilson, be able to play for the veteran minimum, thanks to the added security of guaranteed money from the teams who may let them go. This situation would apply to players like Kirk Cousins, Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Fields, and Geno Smith.
Teams can sign one of these quarterbacks to audition for a Jones-like comeback opportunity then pair them with a young, rookie option that may be available later on in the 2026 NFL Draft. After Mendoza, Alabama’s Ty Simpson has drawn some first-round interest, but there is a perceived drop off in the arms that follow. The next names on the list — LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, Miami’s Carson Beck, Penn State’s Drew Allar, etc. — could fall anywhere in the draft.
Some see 2026 much like the 2022 NFL Draft, in which Kenny Pickett was the only Day 1 quarterback, and the next passer was taken in the third round. Others believe 2026 could be more like 2018 or 2024, when two passers were widely viewed as first-round talents but several others drifted into the first round based on the number of teams looking for answers at the position.
With many already looking forward to the quarterback prospects of the 2027 NFL Draft, we may see multiple teams opt to employ the services of a veteran starter alone or combined with a promising rookie. These decisions will play out over the next few weeks as the veterans hit free agency after release and draft grades are determined for rookies, but there are several options available to teams looking for quarterback help for 2026.
Raiders ‘Looking At All Options’ At QB
The Raiders are widely expected to take Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the first pick of the 2026 draft, putting Geno Smith‘s future in Las Vegas in doubt.
Smith, 35, joined the Raiders last offseason via a trade with the Seahawks, where he started for the last four years. He signed a two-year, $75MM extension last offseason that included $18.5MM in guaranteed salary in 2026.
But after a noticeable drop in play last season – including a league-high 17 interceptions – and the coaching change from Pete Carroll to Klint Kubiak, Smith is no longer the Raiders’ quarterback of the future. At the Combine this week, Kubiak said that the team was “looking at all options right now,” and said that the 12-year veteran was among the considerations.
Kubiak and Smith are technically reuniting in Las Vegas, as the former arrived as the Seahawks’ offensive coordinator a few months before the latter was traded. While Kubiak may not have pushed for the move, it is hard to ignore the timing – and the subsequent seasons of each team involved. The two have talked “a little bit” since Kubiak came aboard in Las Vegas.
Unless the Raiders move off of Mendoza in the next few months, Smith is likely to be out of a starting job later this year. He may not want to spend his age-36 season as a backup on a rebuilding team and could seek a trade. He may not have much value after a rough season, but teams may also ascribe some of his struggles to the dearth of talent around him. Teams in need of a bridge starter – which could include his former team, the Jets – might be interested, and the Raiders would be wise to consider it. They need to spend aggressively this offseason to meet the NFL’s minimum spending requirement – 90% of the salary cap in three-year cycles – so they can afford to eat Smith’s 2026 salary. That would make him more enticing to other teams and raise his trade value.
Otherwise, the Raiders should keep Smith as an experienced mentor for Mendoza in his first season. Typically, a No. 1 pick plays right away, but Las Vegas could start Smith initially in 2026 and give Mendoza more time to get adjusted to the NFL, especially as the team figures out its offensive line situation. He could also become a valuable trade chip during the season if any team were to lose their starting quarterback.
Raiders Rumors: Brady, Spytek, Whitmer
John Spytek was hired before Pete Carroll, who has since been fired. This year’s Raiders HC search — their fourth in the past five offseasons — will be the GM’s first with true involvement. Spytek was not involved in the Carroll hire last year, ESPN’s Kalyn Kahler and Ryan McFadden indicate in an expansive look at the Raiders’ present state of affairs.
The team hired Spytek two days before hiring Carroll last year. This is not uncommon for teams seeking to fill HC and GM positions in one offseason. Ryan Poles technically arrived before Matt Eberflus in 2022, but he was not a key player in that search. Spytek, though, is the point man for the Raiders in-house, as he is running things locally while Tom Brady — who has been involved from afar since being approved as a minority owner in fall 2024 — made “five or six” appearances at the team facility in 2025, Raiders left tackle Kolton Miller estimated.
[RELATED: Raiders Made Push For Jesse Minter]
Brady did play the lead role in the Raiders firing Tom Telesco and hiring Spytek, his former college teammate who later ended up in the Buccaneers’ front office during the QB legend’s Tampa stopover. Brady later led the Raiders’ pursuit of Ben Johnson and then played the central role in a failed Matthew Stafford recruitment. The 47-year-old QB retiree-turned-FOX analyst was believed to be against a Sam Darnold free agent signing, and he was a key figure in the trade for Geno Smith, per an agent of a Raiders player (via Kahler and McFadden). That certainly appeased Carroll, but the Carroll-Smith reunion backfired quickly.
Brady will continue to carry plenty of say with the Raiders, who are believed to be pursuing an offense-oriented HC to pair with expected No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza. But Spytek will be the one running things from inside, as Brady will continue with his FOX role for a third season in 2026.
“My preparation is very much centered around what I have to do in broadcasting,” Brady said of his Raiders role, via The Athletic’s Andrew Marchand. “I love, obviously, having a chance to be involved with the Raiders. To be a former player and have a minority ownership is like a dream come true.
“I couldn’t afford to pay to be a general partner. I did very well in my career. It’s awesome to kind of help shape and strategize and be a visionary for a team. I love being involved in football.”
The Raiders will be expected to move on from Smith, who appears destined to follow Jimmy Garoppolo and Gardner Minshew as Vegas QB acquisitions to last one season. Although Smith signed a two-year, $75MM extension, it will cost the Raiders just $18.5MM in dead money to drop him. That amount would be lessened in the post-June 1 scenario.
Mendoza is the latest QB to rocket to the top sector of the draft with a dominant college season. The Raiders secured the No. 1 overall pick, shelving Brock Bowers and, more controversially, Maxx Crosby (who has since undergone knee surgery for an injury he believed he could play through), for the season’s final two games. One of Mendoza’s Indiana coaches, co-OC/QBs coach Chandler Whitmer is a name to monitor regarding a Raiders role, the Las Vegas Review-Journal’s Vincent Bonsignore tweets.
Whitmer, 34, was on all three Brandon Staley Chargers staffs before landing with the Falcons in 2024. He joined the Hoosiers last year, and his role in Mendoza’s Heisman-winning season and the team’s 16-0 national championship season certainly brought a stock boost.
The Raiders, though, still have a head coach to hire before turning their attention to assistants. Brady heavily influenced Chip Kelly‘s move from the college ranks back to the NFL; that would make another college-to-NFL hire draw some scrutiny. The Raiders gave their one-and-done OC a $6MM-per-year deal only to fire him in-season. Kelly is now Northwestern’s OC.
Raiders Now In Line To Land 2026 No. 1 Overall Pick
DECEMBER 29: ESPN’s Dan Graziano reports some in the Giants’ organization found the Raiders’ IR moves leading up to yesterday’s game to be suspicious. They certainly helped Vegas move into pole position for the top selection, however. Similar actions can be expected in future years when games critical to determining the draft order take place late in the season.
DECEMBER 28: In what would be a snoozer of a game any time before, say, Week 14, today’s matchup between the two teams with the worst records in the NFL held huge implications for each franchise’s future. With a loss today, the Giants could have all but locked up the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, but after New York blew out Las Vegas to the tune of 34-10, the Raiders now sit in the driver’s seat heading into the regular season finale.
It seems only two teams remain eligible to secure the top pick in the league’s next draft, and it’s still the two who played each other today. According to ESPN’s Jordan Raanan, the Giants still hold a 20% chance to land the No. 1 overall pick by losing next week, when they host the Cowboys, and seeing Vegas beat the Chiefs. Raanan’s ESPN coworker, Adam Schefter, followed up Raanan’s report to point out the remaining 80 percent of probability belongs solely to the Raiders, who can secure the top pick with a Week 18 home loss to Kansas City.
A couple factors should give New York fans some hope behind their smaller odds. Todd Archer, another contributor at ESPN, reported shortly after the Cowboys’ Christmas Day game that quarterback Dak Prescott has “pride” in starting the final game of the 2025 season, giving the Giants a tougher matchup for the final week of the season. Additionally, the Chiefs offense will be led by QB3 Chris Oladokun after both Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew suffered season-ending injuries.
Working against the Giants’ odds is the fact that the Raiders appear to be self-handicapping their team for what could be an easy matchup against the ailing Chiefs to close out the year. All before the penultimate week of the regular season, the Raiders shut down the seasons of starting offensive guard Jordan Meredith, star tight end Brock Bowers, and starting safety Jeremy Chinn, not to mention star pass rusher Maxx Crosby. Additionally, after starting quarterback Geno Smith left today’s game with an injury, head coach Pete Carroll announced that Smith would miss the team’s regular season finale with a high ankle sprain, per Ian Rapoport of NFL Network.
The move to place Crosby on injured reserve seems especially blatant as Crosby has been banging the table, advocating for himself, wanting to play out the rest of the season. Crosby had started every game this year up until this week despite suffering a midseason knee injury that both player and team have known for a while would require a meniscus trim procedure to repair. Las Vegas made the move to place Crosby on IR yesterday and plan his surgery against the will of the star pass rusher, ending his season and causing him to walk out of the team facility.
Crosby spoke against the transaction, telling the media that he doesn’t care “about the pick” and that his “job is to be the best defensive end in the world.” Crosby even received two alternative medical opinions on his situation, both of which indicated that he could continue to play, provided he could handle any accompanying pain. Seemingly to speak out against his team’s decision and prove he could still play, Crosby posted videos to his Instagram story yesterday that showed him playing basketball and playing with his daughter on a trampoline, activities that would be difficult for someone with a season-ending knee injury.
Regardless, heading into the final week of the regular season, the Raiders will enter a winnable game against an injury-riddled Chiefs squad without Smith, Bowers, Meredith, Chinn, and Crosby, as well as earlier-injured starting offensive linemen Kolton Miller and Jackson Powers-Johnson. The Giants will head into a tough matchup against a favored Cowboys team, but their draft slot will likely be determined by the actions of the Raiders, who seem to unashamedly be aiming for the No. 1 overall pick.