Brian Hoyer’s Long-Term Outlook
The Browns, one of the biggest surprises of the 2014 season, are quarterbacked by another big surprise, Brian Hoyer. However, as PFR’s Luke Adams pointed out several days ago, Hoyer’s success has been something of a double-edged sword for Cleveland, who are riding him to a potential playoff berth but who will have a difficult and franchise-altering decision to make regarding his future when the season is over.
Although Hoyer has not been dazzling this season, he has been very good, throwing 10 touchdown passes to just four interceptions and posting a 90.4 passer rating. More importantly, he gets results, having compiled a 9-3 record as the Browns’ starting quarterback over the past two seasons. Adams discussed Hoyer as a potential extension candidate back in October, but since Cleveland is sitting on top of the strong AFC North in November, and given that Hoyer has had at least a strong showing in all but one of the club’s nine games this season, questions regarding his next contract are once again on the front burner.
As Marla Ridenour of the Akron Beacon Journal writes, former NFL quarterback and current CBS analyst Steve Beuerlein, who witnessed Hoyer’s dreadful performance against the Jaguars several weeks ago, believes that Hoyer has “done a spectacular job with how little he’s had to work with and how little experience he’s had in the NFL.” Although Beuerlein concedes that Hoyer still has more to prove, he believes that Hoyer has demonstrated that he can succeed in the NFL long-term, and another former NFL signal-caller-turned-analyst, Rich Gannon, shares that view.
Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes that if Hoyer continues to win, he will hit the jackpot on the open market, as some team–whether its the Browns or someone else–will pay him starter’s money. Cabot adds, however, that if Hoyer can lead the Browns to the postseason, Cleveland will not let him get away.
Ben Volin of the Boston Globe lays out the Browns’ dilemma when it comes to Hoyer: “Do they give $30 million to $40 million guaranteed to a journeyman quarterback who is having a career year at age 29? Do they risk losing Hoyer to a quarterback-desperate team such as Houston, Tampa Bay, or St. Louis, and just let a successful quarterback walk out the door?” To resolve that question, at least temporarily, Volin suggests the most sensible solution is slapping the franchise or transition tag on Hoyer in 2015, which would give the team extra time to evaluate Hoyer’s long-term potential while delaying making a decision on Johnny Manziel‘s future. Joel Corry floated that idea last month, and given Cleveland’s ample cap space, it might just be the best solution for both sides.
NFLPA Demands Peterson Reinstatement
8:48am: Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports writes that the NFLPA is prepared to file a grievance if the league has not ruled on Peterson’s status by Tuesday of this week, and Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets that, although Peterson could face as much as a six-game ban, he expects a compromise to be reached that would allow Peterson to return in December. However, Rapoport does not sound as convinced as Mortensen and Schefter that the Vikings’ brass is fairly united in its desire to have Peterson back immediately. Rapoport tweets that an “internal battle” is brewing in that regard.
8:24am: The NFL Players Association demanded immediate reinstatement of Adrian Peterson via a letter it sent to the league on Friday, write ESPN’s Chris Mortensen and Adam Schefter. The NFLPA is basing its demands on the language contained within the agreement that placed Peterson on the Commissioner-Exempt list.
According to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, the agreement, which was signed by NFLPA general counsel Tom DePaso and NFL general counsel Jeff Pash, states:
“The player agrees that, effective as of yesterday (September 17, 2014), he is placed on the Commissioner-Exempt list with full pay until the criminal charges currently pending against him are adjudicated. No discipline will be processed or imposed against the player, by the Club or the League, until after the pending criminal charges are adjudicated.”
That statement certainly contains no definitive indication that the NFL intended to reinstate Peterson immediately upon resolution of his criminal case, but Florio believes that the NFLPA is correct in that the agreement clearly implies Peterson would be eligible to play as soon as the charges against him were adjudicated.
That implication is perhaps not quite as strong as Florio and the NFLPA would suggest, but another argument that the NFLPA has advanced may carry a little more weight. As Mortensen and Schefter write, the union claims that Peterson’s personal conduct review should be no different than the review of any other player’s case, and that Peterson should be eligible to play immediately until the league is finished with its review under the personal conduct policy and determines whether any disciplinary action should be imposed. Mortensen and Schefter point out that such an approach “has been accepted and has precedent.”
Mortensen and Schefter go on to say that, if and when Peterson is reinstated, most of the Vikings’ front office, coaches, and players want him on the team.
Extension Candidate: Carson Palmer
We learned several weeks ago that the Cardinals had opened extension talks with quarterback Carson Palmer, who is set to become a free agent at the end of the 2014 campaign. The Cardinals have been desperate for consistency under center since Kurt Warner retired after the 2009 season, and their search has taken them through eight different quarterbacks in a little less than five years.
Given Arizona’s quarterback woes and the success that Palmer and second-year head coach Bruce Arians have enjoyed together—the Cardinals are 14-7 under Arians when Palmer starts—it is easy to see why the team would want to secure Palmer’s services for at least the next couple of seasons. This is despite Palmer’s age (35) and recent injury history.
Although Drew Stanton went 2-1 this year in Palmer’s absence, the 30-year-old did little to prove that he is anything more than a career backup, and fourth-round rookie Logan Thomas is very much a work in progress. Furthermore, the top quarterbacks in the 2015 free agent class, assuming neither is re-signed by their current clubs, are Michael Vick and Brian Hoyer, and the 7-1 Cardinals are unlikely to have a shot at the top signal-callers in the 2015 draft unless they trade up.
As our Zach Links pointed out, even with the shortage of quality quarterbacks available, Palmer is unlikely to receive a significant hike in annual salary. He is earning $9MM this year, and that seems to be about right for a quarterback who is having something of a late-career renaissance but who does have age and injury concerns.
Palmer has amassed a 99.3 quarterback rating this season, throwing 11 touchdown passes to just two interceptions, and Pro Football Focus (subscription required) rates him as a solid but unspectacular passer, akin to Alex Smith and Andy Dalton. The naked eye test supports the PFF assessment, but as of right now, Arizona does not need Palmer to be an All-Pro. The Cardinals simply need continued stability and consistency, which, combined with their excellent defense, have created a surprising championship contender.
So if Palmer does not get a big boost in average annual value if and when he signs an extension with Arizona, and if Arians is right in his prediction that Palmer can play until he is 36 or 37, then a two-year pact worth between $20-22MM would appear to work well for both sides. The Cardinals could continue to groom Thomas, if they still believe in him, and the young talent they have at the offensive skill positions—not to mention the return of players like Daryl Washington and Darnell Dockett on the defensive side of the ball—should keep the Cards in contention for at least a wild card berth during the life of Palmer’s deal.
Wherever his next contract takes him, it will likely be the last in what has been an up-and-down, but nonetheless successful, career, the highlight of which may be yet to come.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Terry Pegula To Make No Immediate Changes
New Bills owner Terry Pegula says he has no immediate plans to makes changes to the team’s administration, writes Vic Carucci for the Buffalo News. Pegula said, “We recognize, A, that we’re in the middle of a season and, B, the season’s not going too bad right now. So I think the smart thing right now is to just let everything be and let the season play out.”
However, as Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk points out, no owner buys an NFL club fully intent on maintaining that club’s head coach and GM, and Pegula’s comments are consistent with the prevailing notion that he will hire a new coach and/or GM at the end of the season unless the incumbents “do so well that the fans wouldn’t tolerate change.” That probably means a trip to the playoffs at least.
Indeed, Carucci points out that the Pegulas had a similar approach when they bought the NHL’s Buffalo Sabres, eventually making major changes after allowing some time to pass. So one way or another it appears as though Bills fans will have something to look forward to in 2015; the club will be either coming off a long-awaited trip to the postseason, or it will be entering yet another new coaching era under new ownership.
Wednesday Roundup: Peterson, Bryant, Briggs
After Adrian Peterson accepted a no-contest plea yesterday, the speculation surrounding if and when he would be allowed to take the field again predictably spiked. However, there has also been some speculation regarding if Peterson will be back with the Vikings next season, and Bob Sturm, special contributor to the Dallas Morning News, says he would not put it past Cowboys‘ owner Jerry Jones to go after Peterson in 2015.
Sturm says, “Reality says that if [Peterson] is free to play, Jerry will be interested. If you think about it, it might actually help you with leverage over [DeMarco] Murray if you choose to use it. I would stick with Murray for several reasons, but I would never rule out the possibility that Peterson is RB1 next fall. Jerry Jones has left too many bread crumbs to ignore on this front.”
Murray, who will be a free agent after this season, has been terrific in 2014, and the Cowboys will have a big decision to make regarding whether or not to bring him back. Jones, understandably, has long coveted Peterson, and he may be willing to let Murray walk if he can land AD a few months after the dust surrounding his child abuse case settles.
Now for a quick swing around the league on this quiet Wednesday evening:
- Speaking of big-name free agents in Dallas, Jon Machota of the Dallas Morning News writes that super-agent Tom Condon will represent Cowboys receiver Dez Bryant in his contract negotiations. Our Dallas Robinson wrote several days ago that this would be a possibility after Bryant left his former agent to join Roc Nation.
- Lance Briggs, who is playing in his 12th season for the Bears, believes 2014 is his last year in Chicago, writes Larry Mayer of ChicagoBears.com.
- The Ravens have struggled mightily with their cornerback play this season, a situation dramatically worsened by the injury that Jimmy Smith suffered in Week 8. Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun tweets that these problems were predictable after the club elected to allow players like Corey Graham and Cary Williams leave in free agency without investing a high draft choice on a corner since Smith himself was drafted in 2011.
- Tom Pelissero of USA Today writes that the NFLPA is pushing for a neutral arbitrator to decide all punishments for violations of the league’s personal conduct policy.
Justin Durant Likely Out For Season
11:00pm: Durant has suffered what appears to be a season-ending torn biceps, tweets Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas.com, citing Cowboys owner Jerry Jones.
10:05pm: The NFC East-leading Cowboys have suffered their second major injury of the night. Linebacker Justin Durant exited tonight’s game against Washington with an arm injury and will not return, tweets Calvin Watkins of ESPNDallas.com.
Poll: Who Is Most Likely To Be Traded?
The trade deadline is tomorrow at 4pm eastern time, and a number of prominent players have been the subject of swirling trade rumors over the past several weeks. After a nightmarish start to the season, the Buccaneers may be entertaining the idea of a fire sale, with Vincent Jackson, Doug Martin, and Dashon Goldson all potentially on the trading block.
The Titans, meanwhile, appear ready to usher in a new era with the insertion of Zach Mettenberger into the starting lineup, and they are reportedly taking calls on veterans Nate Washington, Michael Griffin, and Wesley Woodyard. The Bengals, who have regained control over the AFC North without much help from Jermaine Gresham, may be waiting for someone to meet what should be a fairly low price for Gresham’s services. And the Rams, who suffered an ignominious defeat at the hands of the Chiefs yesterday after a surprising upset of the Seahawks in Week 7, could be shopping players like Kendall Langford and Zac Stacy.
We also learned yesterday that the Vikings could be taking calls on Adrian Peterson, Chad Greenway, and Greg Jennings. However, all of those players, for various reasons, are probably less likely to be on the move than some of the other names mentioned above.
Indeed, given the level of interest in his services, the struggles of his current team, and his potential impact on a new club, the player who may be the most likely to be dealt is Jackson. This is despite NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport’s belief that Tampa Bay would not settle for less than a second-round pick in exchange for its top wideout.
But that’s just one person’s opinion. Odds are, of course, that no one will be traded; that’s simply the status quo when it comes to the NFL trade deadline. And several head coaches whose teams were rumored to be active participants in the trade market said today that they did not expect their clubs to pull the trigger on a deal. CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora, even though he lays out a number of trades that he thinks would be beneficial for teams who appear destined for losing records in 2014, acknowledges that seeing one of those trades come to fruition would be very surprising.
However, reality is not always exciting. So, with that in mind, which of the above players do you think are mostly likely to be traded? Do you think a different player will be on the move? Or do you live so relentlessly in the real world that you think all of this smoke will fail to give rise to a single fire?
Poll: What Player Is Most Likely To Be Traded?
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Vincent Jackson 27% (265)
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Everybody's staying put 24% (234)
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Doug Martin 18% (178)
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Someone else 7% (66)
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Zac Stacy 5% (53)
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Adrian Peterson 4% (39)
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Dashon Goldson 4% (37)
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Nate Washington 3% (34)
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Jermaine Gresham 2% (24)
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Wesley Woodyard 1% (13)
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Greg Jennings 1% (13)
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Chad Greenway 1% (10)
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Michael Griffin 1% (9)
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Kendall Langford 1% (8)
Total votes: 983
Tony Romo Exits With Back Injury
10:14pm: Romo has returned to the game to a standing ovation, and will attempt to lead a game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter.
9:28pm: Tony Romo has exited tonight’s game against Washington with an apparent lower back injury. Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports tweets that Romo took a knee directly to his back, near the area where he underwent surgery. He was escorted to Dallas’ locker room after laying on the field for several minutes. He did walk off under his own power, but was walking very gingerly. We will pass along any further updates if they become available.
Monday Roundup: Cutler, Trades, Landry
Our Zach Links wrote earlier that Bears GM Phil Emery is not currently thinking about parting ways with head coach Marc Trestman, and Emery and Trestman both reaffirmed their support for embattled quarterback Jay Cutler one day after Chicago’s embarrassing Week 8 loss to the Patriots. As Michael C. Wright of ESPN.com writes, Emery and Trestman remain committed to Cutler, attempting to accentuate the positives in their signal caller’s performances while acknowledging the struggles.
Emery claimed that his club’s decision to stick with Cutler has nothing to do with Cutler’s salary, but ESPN’s John Clayton is understandably skeptical. In his “Clayton Minute” video segment, Clayton says that, given the Bear’s $18MM annual commitment to Cutler, Chicago simply has no other choice than to hope that Cutler can right the ship.
- Patrick Finley of the Chicago Sun Times writes that Emery has been approached with “two or three interesting” trade proposals, but nothing that helps the Bears win in 2014. As Emery stated that the team is far from giving up hope on this season.
- Derek Carr is showing tremendous promise and the Browns have to be second-guessing their decision to target Johnny Manziel in the draft instead of him, writes Jodie Valade of the Plain Dealer.
- Browns head coach Mike Pettine says that the team’s phones are ringing but cautions that the deadline brings few trades in comparison to the amount of talk that happens, tweets Nate Urlich of the Akron Beacon-Journal.
- Citing ESPN’s Adam Schefter, CSNBaltimore.com staff reports that the league has levied a $1.4MM salary cap charge on the Ravens as a result of Ray Rice‘s grievance against the club. According to Schefter, it is normal practice for the NFL to make such a move when a grievance is pending. Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun writes that the cap charge reduces the Ravens’ cap room to about $4.1MM. Baltimore may need to utilize some of that room, as star cornerback Jimmy Smith is expected to miss “a few weeks” with a left foot sprain, according to Garrett Downing of BaltimoreRavens.com.
- Titans head coach Ken Whisenhunt said that his club is unlikely to make any more trades,according to Terry McCormick of TitansInsider.com (via Twitter).
- The Colts are in no hurry to bring back LaRon Landry after his four-game PED suspension, writes Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star.
- Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com looks at how Jon Beason‘s salary, and the Giants‘ salary cap, will be affected by Beason’s season-ending injury.
Zach Links contributed to this post
Injury Updates: Sunday
We will keep you informed of any major injuries that arise throughout the course of today’s games.
- In addition to suffering an embarrassing loss at the hands of the Patriots, the Bears may have lost one key contributor on each side of the all. Guard Matt Slauson left the game with a pectoral injury (Twitter link via Rich Campbell of the Chicago Tribune), and as we saw with Brian Orakpo, a torn pectoral will likely force a player to miss the remainder of the season. Campbell’s Tribune colleague, Brad Biggs, tweets that defensive lineman Lamarr Houston had to be carted off the field after suffering an injury while celebrating a sack of Tom Brady.
- Rams receiver Brian Quick suffered an arm injury in today’s game against the Chiefs, and had to be carted off the field, per Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Dispatch (Twitter link).
Earlier updates:
- Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports tweets that Ravens CB Jimmy Smith has been carted off the field with a left leg injury.
- Lions DT Nick Fairley suffered a right knee injury and has already been declared out for the rest of today’s game in London, tweets Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.
- Texans rookie Jadeveon Clowney is expected to suit up for the first time since Week 1, tweets NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport. Clowney is expected to contribute primarily in obvious passing situations.
- Rapoport adds (via Twitter) that Bengals WR A.J. Green, who was listed as doubtful for today’s divisional tilt against Baltimore, will not play. He hopes to return next week, but how he feels on Wednesday will be a major part of that decision.
- NFL.com’s Kevin Patra confirms that Lions star wideout Calvin Johnson will not play in today’s game against the Falcons in London.