Poll: Who Will Be The First Coach To Get Fired This Season?
It’s a new year for every coach in the NFL, but not every coach will survive the year. Already, there’s speculation about which coaches could be on the hot seat in 2018. Some coaches with shaky job security may include:
- Hue Jackson, Browns: Jackson is the oddsmaker’s favorite to lose his job first. After compiling a 1-31 record in his two seasons at the helm in Cleveland, it’s hard to argue with the professionals. Jackson certainly has more talent to work with thanks to the arrivals of running back Carlos Hyde, wide receiver Jarvis Landry, and a vastly improved secondary, but along with that comes raised expectations. When also considering that Jackson is a holdover from the previous regime and not necessarily the preferred choice of new GM John Dorsey, it’s quite possible that Jackson could be ousted with another bad start.
- Adam Gase, Dolphins: When Gase was hired in 2016, he was the league’s youngest head coach at the age of 38. He earned a playoff appearance in his first year on the sidelines, but last year turned ugly after quarterback Ryan Tannehill was lost for the season and replaced by Jay Cutler. Tannehill’s return should help matters, but it’s fair to wonder whether this team has improved much at all after losing Ndamukong Suh on the other side of the ball. The Dolphins’ early schedule may also hurt Gase as they open against the Titans, Jets, Raiders, and Patriots. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Dolphins split those games, like they did in 2017, but it’s also conceivable that they could open the year 0-4. As you can probably guess, an 0-4 start is historically difficult to climb out from. Of the 117 teams that have started 0-4 in the 16-game era, the ’92 Chargers are the ones to have reached the postseason with with an 11-win campaign. The 2004 Bills and the 2017 Chargers both rallied to win nine games, but neither club reached the playoffs.
- Marvin Lewis, Bengals: The Lewis saga took some weird twists and turns last season. In the midst of a second-straight season without a playoff appearance, there was speculation about Lewis’ job security. Then, in December, we started hearing rumblings that Lewis might leave the Bengals to pursue opportunities elsewhere. Ultimately, Lewis was signed to a two-year extension to, theoretically, keep him under contract for his 16th and 17th seasons in Cincinnati. Lewis has avoided lame duck status for 2018, but there’s no guarantee that he’ll survive the year if the Bengals falter.
- Vance Joseph, Broncos: Joseph was nearly axed after the 2017 season before John Elway ultimately decided to retain him. The Broncos’ defense is still jam-packed with talent and they have a capable quarterback in Case Keenum, so anything short of a playoff appearance will be a disappointment in Denver. This will be Joseph’s second season at the helm in Denver, but it’s clear that he is under pressure it win.
- Dirk Koetter, Buccaneers: Koetter was already believed to be on the hot seat but he was placed squarely behind the 8-ball last week when quarterback Jameis Winston was suspended for the first three games of the season. Even if the Bucs come out of September unscathed, they’ll be up against an overall schedule that is the fourth-toughest in the NFL, based on the combined win percentage of opponents in 2017.
The list goes on from there. Jay Gruden (Redskins), Todd Bowles (Jets), Bill O’Brien (Texans), Jason Garrett (Cowboys), John Harbaugh (Ravens), and Ron Rivera (Panthers) could also be in varying degrees of jeopardy with disappointing seasons. We’d be surprised to see a quick hook for Garrett, Harbaugh, or Rivera no matter what happens, but you may feel differently.
Click below to make your pick for who will be the first to get the axe. Then, you can head to the comment section to back up your choice.
The Average Age Of NFL Head Coaches In 2018
This year, seven NFL teams made head coaching changes. As a whole, the moves continued the NFL’s trend of moving in a younger direction. 
Here is the age of every NFL’s head coach, ordered from youngest to oldest at the start of Week 1 of the 2018 season:
- Sean McVay, Rams – 32
- Kyle Shanahan, 49ers – 38
- Matt Nagy, Bears – 40
- Adam Gase, Dolphins – 40
- Mike Vrabel, Titans – 43
- Matt Patricia, Lions – 43 (Note: Patricia turns 44 just days after the Lions’ season opener.)
- Sean McDermott, Bills – 44
- Vance Joseph, Broncos – 45
- Mike Tomlin, Steelers – 46
- Dan Quinn, Falcons – 47 (Note: Quinn turns 48 just days after the Falcons’ season opener.)
- Bill O’Brien, Texans – 48
- Anthony Lynn, Chargers – 49
- Steve Wilks, Cardinals – 49
- Doug Pederson, Eagles – 50
- Jay Gruden, Redskins – 51
- Jason Garrett, Cowboys – 52
- Hue Jackson, Browns – 52
- Pat Shurmur, Giants – 53
- Doug Marrone, Jaguars – 54
- Sean Payton, Saints – 54
- Todd Bowles, Jets – 54
- Mike McCarthy, Packers – 54
- Jon Gruden, Raiders – 55
- John Harbaugh, Ravens – 55
- Ron Rivera, Panthers – 56
- Frank Reich, Colts – 56
- Dirk Koetter, Buccaneers – 59
- Marvin Lewis, Bengals – 59
- Andy Reid, Chiefs – 60
- Mike Zimmer, Vikings – 62
- Bill Belichick, Patriots – 66
- Pete Carroll, Seahawks – 66 (Note: Carroll turns 67 just days after the Seahawks’ season opener.)
Just two years ago, Adam Gase was the league’s youngest head coach at the age of 38. That’s still young by NFL head coaching standards, but 38-year-old Kyle Shanahan is a ways behind Sean McVay of the Rams, who is the youngest head coach in the NFL.
The NFL’s oldest head coach is Pete Carroll, who was born about eight months before Patriots head coach Bill Belichick.
Using Week 1 as our starting point, the average age of NFL head coaches in 2018 is 51 years old. That shows a significant dip from 2016, when the average age of head coaches was 53.4 and 2017, when the average age was 52.5.
Could the average of NFL head coaches dip even further in 2019? It’s certainly possible with coaches over the average age on the hot seat including Hue Jackson, Dirk Koetter, Jay Gruden, John Harbaugh, and Todd Bowles.
This Date In Transactions History: NFL Suspends Gates, McClain, Richardson
The days leading up to the Fourth of July aren’t necessarily a hotbed of activity in the NFL. But, sometimes, the league office will use the cover of the holiday weekend to drop some unfavorable news. That’s what the NFL did on July 2, 2015 when it announced the suspensions of three notable players. 
Three years ago today, the league announced suspensions for Chargers tight end Antonio Gates, Jets defensive end Sheldon Richardson, and Cowboys linebacker Rolando McClain. All three players were banned for the first four games of the season – Gates for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drugs policy and McClain and Richardson for substance abuse policy violations.
Gates issued a statement soon after the suspension came down, saying that he tested positive for a substance that he was unaware was on the league’s banned list. At the time, it felt like the ban could signal the end of the Gates era in San Diego and the beginning of the Ladarius Green era. Green had flashed his immense physical tools in the past, but was buried behind Gates on the tight end depth chart. Green was productive in Gates’ absence, but Gates came storming back when he took the field and finished ahead of Green in all major statistical categories. In the following year, Green went on to sign an ill-fated contract with the Steelers and Gates remained as the team’s primary tight end.
Richardson’s suspension, meanwhile, probably hurt his standing with his team. Richardson’s suspension gave rookie Leonard Williams a chance to shine and further reinforced the perception of him as a bad teammate. The former first-round pick turned in the worst season of his career to date and lost upwards of $600K in salary and bonus money as a result of the suspension. The Jets tried hard to trade Richardson throughout the 2016 season, but could not find any takers. Then, just before the start of the ’17 campaign, they shipped him to the Seahawks for wide receiver Jermaine Kearse and a second-round pick.
McClain’s suspension was the result of violating the league’s substance abuse policy for a fourth time in his NFL career. In a statement, McClain vowed that he would “not break the rules of [his] profession in the future.” Unfortunately, he was unable to keep that promise. In 2016, McClain was suspended for substance abuse yet again, this time for ten games. He later failed another drug test midway through the season, and the NFL slapped him with an indefinite suspension. McClain has reportedly battled an addiction to “purple drank” (a mixture of codeine-based cold medication and soda) and there has been no word of a potential comeback in some time.
PFR Originals: 6/24/18 – 7/1/18
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff over the past week:
- We covered six notable moves in our This Date In Transactions History series:
- Zach Links looked at wide receiver Joe Horn‘s retirement in 2010.
- Zach then analyzed the Panthers’ decision to franchise tag defensive end Julius Peppers in 2009.
- Ben Levine probed the Vikings’ ill-fated decision to sign linebacker Desmond Bishop in 2013.
- Zach went over Ed Reed‘s six-year, $40MM contract, a deal which made him the highest-paid safety in the NFL.
- Zach also covered Andrew Luck‘s 2016 contract extension, which made him the highest-paid player in NFL history (at the time).
- Finally, Ben touched on ex-Cowboys linebacker Rolando McClain‘s 2016 10-game suspension.
- We also posted five polls last week:
- Andrew Ortenberg asked which NFC East had the most productive offseason.
- Zach asked which top-10 NFL draft pick will have the largest role in 2018.
- I asked which new head coach will experience the most success during the upcoming season.
- Zach asked which NFL club won the 2018 draft.
- Sam Robinson asked if the Steelers will extend running back Le’Veon Bell before a July 16 deadline.
- PFR looked at three candidates for a contract extension:
- In a pair of PFR Glossary entries, Zach went over both the supplemental draft and contract guarantees.
Extension Candidate: C.J. Mosley
Ravens linebacker C.J. Mosley, unlike some of his fellow 2014 first-round draftees eyeing a new deal, has not held out of spring practices and has no intentions of holding out of training camp. He has previously indicated that he wants to be a Raven for life and to be remembered as the second-greatest linebacker in team history (behind Ray Lewis, who will be inducted into the Hall of Fame in August).
Although it is difficult to fault any player in today’s NFL for holding out in an effort to land a mega payday, Mosley’s decision to remain with the team regardless of his contract situation is emblematic of the type of leadership that makes him such a prized commodity in Baltimore. His play, of course, also speaks volumes. The Alabama product has been named to three Pro Bowls in his four-year career and has earned a reputation as something of a playmaker, as he has posted eight interceptions and eight sacks during that timeframe. Those eight interceptions rank second among linebackers over the past four years (behind Luke Kuechly‘s nine), and Mosley ranks fifth in tackles (489) and fifth in solo tackles (313) among all defensive players from 2014-17.
Perhaps just as importantly, he has been durable, having missed only two games to date. On the other hand, he can struggle in pass coverage, and while he is a very good all-around player, he is not a generational talent that makes a lucrative extension an easy call for the Ravens.
The Texans’ Benardrick McKinney recently landed a five-year, $50MM deal (with $21MM guaranteed), and the Vikings gave Eric Kendricks a similar deal in April. Mosley has a case to top both of those players, neither of whom have been selected to a Pro Bowl, and it would not be far-fetched to see him approaching or besting Kuechly’s five-year, $61MM ($27MM guaranteed) pact, which currently paces the market for inside linebackers.
But the Ravens do have a history of drafting quality ILBs, and given that Mosley is generally not the kind of game-changing player that Kuechly is, one would think Baltimore could move on and use that money elsewhere. But the Ravens typically take care of their homegrown talent, and considering Mosley’s abilities and leadership qualities, the guess here is that he and the team will come to terms on an extension that will give him around $25MM in guarantees and that averages around $11MM per year.
Poll: Will Steelers Extend Le’Veon Bell?
As could be expected given the events of the past 1 1/2 years, the Le’Veon Bell/Steelers saga is coming down to the wire. By July 16, Steelers fans will almost certainly know if the two-time All-Pro running back will be a long-term Pittsburgh resident.
Thus far, the signs haven’t been especially promising. Although Bell is optimistic about an extension being finalized, Pittsburgh-based reporters are skeptical about the team committing at the rate Bell seeks. Devonta Freeman‘s $8.25MM-per-year deal represents the current ceiling for long-term running back pacts, but Bell could be angling for $17MM annually in what would be an unbelievable markup for this position. He also might merely want something north of his new franchise tag number ($14.5MM), which would still double as a seismic increase for this job compared to the top rates of the recent past.
The Steelers appeared closer to reaching the finish line with Bell last summer, when they reportedly offered him a deal that would have paid him $42.5MM in its first three years and $30MM across the first two. Bell will be collecting just more than $26MM on his two-franchise tag arrangement between the 2017 and ’18 seasons. The 26-year-old ball-carrier, though, said the Steelers’ top 2017 offer was for $13.3MM per year for the life of the contract. While that still would have represented a seismic raise for the running back market, and was a $1.1MM AAV increase from Bell’s 2017 franchise tag rate, Bell wanted his contract to reflect his contributions as a receiver as well.
Bell then caught a career-high 85 passes — his second 80-reception season — and stayed healthy throughout a dominant slate that doubled as the Steelers’ best since their 2010 AFC championship campaign. But he also added a career-high 406 touches to his odometer. The Steelers have used him as an old-school workhorse. Despite that helping Bell’s statistics, his usage rate may be hurting his long-term value.
Although Kevin Colbert expressed optimism back in March the Steelers would extend Bell, it’s possible that given the way these talks have progressed the team views him as a high-end short-term rental rather than someone who will still be an elite player into his late 20s or early 30s.
However, the Steelers don’t have a ready-made Bell replacement lined up. That would be unrealistic, since the former second-round pick’s been one of the best backs of the decade. But would it be better for a team that’s struggled on defense for years to let Bell walk in 2019 and devote most of that money to helping its weaker unit? Or is Bell essential to Pittsburgh keeping its Super Bowl title window open?
The Steelers may well be the Patriots’ top threat in the AFC, but might this be the last season where Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Bell are teammates? Bell and the Steelers not agreeing to an extension by the July deadline would put the running back on a Kirk Cousins path, with a 2019 tag number exceeding an untenable $20MM, and make Cousins’ former Michigan State teammate a unique free agent just as he was this year. Or, will Bell back down from his lofty price point and lock in some multiyear guarantees while he’s still in his mid-20s?
Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section!
This Date In Transactions History: Rolando McClain
When linebacker Rolando McClain was handed a 10-game suspension on this date in 2016, it was assumed he’d be back for the Cowboys’ late-season run. However, two years later, it’s uncertain if the 28-year-old will ever play in the NFL again.
The 2010 first-round pick had three productive seasons with the Raiders, although it was accompanied by its fair share of controversy. In 2012, he was booted from team practices after several incidents, and McClain subsequently took to Facebook to complain about the organization, going as far as to say that he wanted “to be anywhere besides here.” He was released by the team the next offseason before briefly catching on with the Ravens. However, less than a month after signing with Baltimore, McClain suddenly announced his retirement.
The Cowboys then took a bit of a risk trading for the linebacker in 2014, despite the fact that McClain had sat out the previous season. It ended up paying off for Dallas, as the linebacker would go on to appear in 13 games for his new team, compiling 81 tackles, one sack, and one forced fumble. He earned his first suspension from the NFL the following offseason, limiting him to only 11 games in 2015, although he still collected 80 tackles and a pair of sacks.
After signing another one-year deal with the Cowboys during the 2016 offseason, McClain was handed the 10-game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. He then failed another drug test midway through the season, and the NFL slapped him with an indefinite suspension. Following his third ban in two years, it doesn’t sound like McClain will be making a return anytime soon. Since he was suspended indefinitely, we’ve only heard one bit of news about McClain: a 2017 arrest for firearm and drug charges.
Two years ago today, the Cowboys were surely disappointed hearing about McClain’s suspension. However, it’s unlikely they would have thought that he’d be out of the NFL two years later.
Poll: Which NFL Team Won The Draft?
Can you fairly evaluate a team’s draft haul before the rookies have even played their first NFL game? Well, no, not really. But we’re going to do it anyway because it’s a fun exercise.
Below, you’ll have the opportunity to select the team that you feel had the best overall draft. First, here are a handful of clubs you may want to consider:
Bears – The Bears addressed three serious needs with their top three picks. They began their draft by selecting inside linebacker Roquan Smith, who was viewed as one of the safest top talents in the draft despite his lack of ideal size for the position. They followed that up by taking Iowa’s James Daniels in the second round, a player with the ability to play all three spots on the interior offensive line. In the third round, they gave Mitchell Trubisky another weapon to work with in Memphis receiver Anthony Miller.
Broncos – Few could find fault with the Broncos’ first pick, defensive end Bradley Chubb. The hits kept on coming for GM John Elway & Co. as they added quality wide receivers Courtland Sutton (second round) and DaeSean Hamilton (fourth round) as well as bruising running back Royce Freeman (third round). The Broncos didn’t draft their quarterback of the future, but they picked up pieces that can contribute right away on both sides of the ball.
Bucs – With a draft class headlined by defensive tackle Vita Vea and running back Ronald Jones, Bucs fans have a lot to be excited about. It’s fair to question the wisdom of taking Vea after signing Beau Allen to a three-year, $15MM deal, but it’s hard to knock what they did here in total. The Bucs acquired two second round picks to move down from No. 7 to No. 12, where they selected the Polynesian phenom. The No. 53 pick from Buffalo became defensive back M.J. Stewart and they turned the No. 56 overall choice into a pair of worthwhile secondary players.
Giants – Your take on the Giants’ draft class may be swayed by your thoughts on taking a running back with the No. 2 overall pick. Still, it’s hard to find fault with Saquon Barkley‘s talent and none of this year’s top quarterbacks profile as slam dunks. At No. 34 overall, they selected guard Will Hernandez, who should help to open up running lanes for Barkley. With the next two picks, Dave Gettleman provided new defensive coordinator James Bettcher with front seven support by grabbing Lorenzo Carter and B.J. Hill. Not bad for Gettleman’s first draft as the Giants’ football czar.
Packers – The Packers also have a new GM at the helm who did a solid job in the draft. The Packers were in desperate need of help at cornerback and they landed two – Louisville’s Jaire Alexander and Iowa’s Josh Jackson – with their first two selections. There were other intriguing picks in the Packers’ 11-man draft class, including linebacker Oren Burks (third round) and a group of wide receivers (J’Mon Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Equanimeous St. Brown) that could help fill the void left by Jordy Nelson‘s departure.
Patriots – This year, the Patriots made eight draft day trades, the most in franchise history. That’s not including all of their pre-draft maneuvering, either. Ultimately, they fortified next year’s crop of picks while also fortifying their roster for this year’s championship run. Instead of reaching for Tom Brady‘s heir, they used their late-first round draft picks on tackle Isaiah Wynn and running back Sony Michel. With those selections, the Pats eased the hurt of losing Nate Solder and Dion Lewis in free agency. There’s also a lot to like about slot corner Duke Dawson and sixth-round wide receiver Braxton Berrios has the potential to become an effective slot weapon for the Pats on offense.
If you need a refresher on this year’s draft, check out PFR’s complete list of picks by team. After that, you can cast your vote below and back up your choice in the comment section.
This Date In Transactions History: Andrew Luck
On this date two years ago, the Colts made Andrew Luck the highest-paid player in NFL history. Two years later, it’s anyone’s guess as to whether the deal will pay off. 
[RELATED: Latest On Andrew Luck]
The Colts inked Luck to a five-year extension worth a whopping $122MM, with $87MM in overall guarantees and $47MM fully guaranteed at signing. Without the deal, Luck would have been eligible for free agency following the ’16 season. From there, the Colts could have retained Luck for an additional two seasons via the franchise tag at estimated values of $25MM and $35MM, but it would have put them in a difficult position down the road. Instead, both sides used Luck’s expected franchise tags amounts as a framework for talks and hammered out a deal.
With the contract, Luck leapfrogged Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, and Philip Rivers in average annual value. The deal made sense, but it did not come without risk. Luck was coming off of an injury-riddled, seven-game season in which he completed just 55.3% of his passes and logged 15 touchdowns against 12 interceptions.
Luck’s shoulder was largely a non-issue in 2016 as he threw for 4,240 yards and 31 touchdowns with a career-high 63.5 completion percentage. After the season, he went under the knife to fix his shoulder, and that’s where things started to get messy. First, Luck was held out of training camp and the preseason. Then, he was ruled out for week after week in the regular season. Finally, in November, the Colts were forced to place Luck on season-ending IR.
Luck finally was able to throw a regulation-sized football earlier this month, but questions remain about how effective Luck can be going forward. When healthy, Luck is one of the league’s best QBs and he has three Pro Bowl nods to back that up. Still, no one knows if his shoulder can withstand the punishment of a full season. The Colts will be married to the former No. 1 overall pick for a while, regardless of how things turn out.
Already, Luck’s $12MM base salary for 2018 and $6MM of his 2019 salary have become fully guaranteed. If the Colts want to push the eject button in 2019, it’ll leave them with $12.8MM in dead money versus $14.725MM in cap savings. Their first chance to move on from Luck with an impactful effect on the cap will come in 2020, when they can save $22MM by cutting him with just $6.5MM in dead money remaining.
The Colts and Luck are hoping that it won’t come to that. If Luck gets back to his old form this year, the mega deal he signed in 2016 will once again look worthwhile, and maybe even team-friendly.
Poll: Which New Head Coach Will Experience Most 2018 Success?
Coaching staff turnover was abundant this offseason, but most of that change occurred at the assistant level: while there were 33 instances of alteration among offensive and defensive coordinators, only seven new head coaches will be leading teams in 2018, a number that fits in nicely with yearly averages. Naturally, these seven new HCs are taking over clubs that are in something of a rebuild phase, as the Titans are the only team that made the postseason in 2017 before opting to make a coaching change at the top.
With that in mind, we’d like to ask PFR readers which new head coach will experience the most success during the upcoming campaign? While we aren’t solely asking about record (the Bears could stage a turnaround in 2018 and still not make the playoffs given their starting point and the strength of the NFC North, for one example), we’re looking mostly at wins and losses.
Here’s a refresher on the NFL’s new head coaches:
- Arizona Cardinals: Hired Steve Wilks to replace Bruce Arians
- Chicago Bears: Hired Matt Nagy to replace John Fox
- Detroit Lions: Hired Matt Patricia to replace Jim Caldwell
- Indianapolis Colts: Hired Frank Reich to replace Chuck Pagano
- New York Giants: Hired Pat Shurmur to replace Ben McAdoo / Steve Spagnuolo (interim)
- Oakland Raiders: Hired Jon Gruden to replace Jack Del Rio
- Tennessee Titans: Hired Mike Vrabel to replace Mike Mularkey
In the NFC, Wilks will be not only tasked with re-forming a defense that’s moving from a 3-4 to a 4-3 scheme, but deciding if and when to insert rookie quarterback Josh Rosen over free agent acquisition Sam Bradford. Nagy, meanwhile, has the benefit of leaning on veteran defensive coordinator Vic Fangio on one side of the ball, but he’s installing an all-new offensive system with weapons such as Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Anthony Miller, and Trey Burton. Patricia takes over a relatively stable roster in Detroit, but he’s looking up at the Packers and Vikings in the NFC North, while Shurmur will be asked to wring at least one more productive season out of 37-year-old signal-caller Eli Manning.
Moving to the AFC, Reich is the new lead man in Indianapolis after Josh McDaniels spurned the Colts; with a barren 53-man roster, Reich will need Andrew Luck at something close to full health. Gruden landed a $100MM contract to return to the NFL and Oakland, but after an offseason which saw the Raiders’ roster get older, it’s anyone’s guess if the Black and Silver can compete with Kansas City and Los Angeles in the AFC West. Vrabel takes over an already-contending Titans club after just one season as a defensive coordinator, but his addition of coordinators Matt LaFleur (offense) and Dean Pees (defense) drew considerable praise.
So, who do you like? Which of these coaches will post the most successful season in 2018?