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Browns QB Transactions Since 2022

December 14th, 2023 at 4:32pm CST by Sam Robinson

Upon giving Joe Flacco the keys in Week 13, the Browns became the 28th NFL team since 1950 to start four quarterbacks in one season, per the Elias Sports Bureau. (The Vikings, who will start ex-Browns QB Nick Mullens in Week 15, will soon become No. 29.) This will continue an eventful stretch for a franchise that has experienced persistent issues staffing its QB spot since it rebooted in 1999.

The Browns became the first team since the 1976 49ers to trade three first-round picks for a veteran quarterback, but their Deshaun Watson blockbuster has not brought stability just yet. Watson followed up his suspension-marred season with one that brought steady injury trouble; the high-priced passer is out for the season, constructing the bridge to Flacco.

In addition to Watson and Flacco, Cleveland made a number of transactions at the sport’s highest-profile position since determining it would move on from Baker Mayfield last year. From the Watson trade to today’s Flacco move to the 53-man roster, here are the transactions the Browns have made at QB:

March 18, 2022

  • Traded 2022 first- and fourth-round picks, 2023 first- and third-round picks, 2024 first- and fourth-rounders to Texans for Deshaun Watson and 2024 sixth

March 19, 2022

April 8, 2022

July 6, 2022

July 21, 2022

August 30, 2022

August 31, 2022

September 1, 2022

October 10, 2022

November 28, 2022

November 29, 2022

March 20, 2023

April 29, 2023

August 24, 2023

August 29, 2023

August 30, 2023

October 25, 2023

November 20, 2023

December 9, 2023

December 11, 2023

December 14, 2023

Updated 2024 NFL Draft Order

December 13th, 2023 at 2:29pm CST by Sam Robinson

Two different teams have held the No. 1 overall pick in consecutive years since 2017. Amid a radical rebuild effort, the Browns carried the top pick into the 2017 and ’18 drafts. The Jaguars did the same in 2021 and ’22. It is possible the Bears will follow that up in back-to-back years. The big difference here would be the Bears traded the 2023 top choice and may unload the 2024 top pick for another windfall, depending on their evaluation of Justin Fields.

The Bears and Panthers’ March trade, giving Carolina access to Bryce Young, has become a seminal moment for both teams. As it stands now, Chicago holds two top-five picks. The Panthers are 1-12, giving the Bears a two-game lead on the Patriots and Cardinals for the top slot with four games left. Chicago finishing with the first overall selection, providing access to the quarterback of its choice, would create a big-picture decision for a Bears team that already passed on the 2023 quarterback class to stick with Fields — a QB the Ryan Poles regime did not draft. North Carolina’s Drake Maye has declared for the draft, while USC’s Caleb Williams is widely expected to follow suit.

A new Cardinals regime is also evaluating its QB, though Kyler Murray‘s $46.1MM-per-year contract (which runs through 2028) will be much harder to escape compared to Fields’. This creates an interesting scenario that will have teams who do not land two-two draft slots monitoring how Chicago and Arizona proceed. The Patriots are widely expected to pursue a quarterback in the draft, and they are likely to do so without Bill Belichick.

With gridlock forming in the AFC and NFC wild-card races, considerable movement will take place over the next month. The winner of the NFC South will likely lose several spots in the ’24 draft, as the Buccaneers did this year by winning the ’22 division title at 8-9. Here is how the draft order looks going into Week 15:

  1. Chicago Bears (via Panthers)
  2. New England Patriots: 3-10
  3. Arizona Cardinals: 3-10
  4. Washington Commanders: 4-9
  5. Chicago Bears: 5-8
  6. Las Vegas Raiders: 5-8
  7. New York Jets: 5-8
  8. New York Giants: 5-8
  9. Tennessee Titans: 5-8
  10. Los Angeles Chargers: 5-8
  11. Atlanta Falcons: 6-7
  12. New Orleans Saints: 6-7
  13. Seattle Seahawks: 6-7
  14. Los Angeles Rams: 6-7
  15. Denver Broncos: 7-6
  16. Arizona Cardinals (via Texans)
  17. Buffalo Bills: 7-6
  18. Cincinnati Bengals: 7-6
  19. Green Bay Packers: 6-7
  20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-7
  21. Indianapolis Colts: 7-6
  22. Minnesota Vikings: 7-6
  23. Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-6
  24. Houston Texans (via Browns)
  25. Kansas City Chiefs: 8-5
  26. Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-5
  27. Detroit Lions: 9-4
  28. Philadelphia Eagles: 10-3
  29. Miami Dolphins: 9-4
  30. Dallas Cowboys: 10-3
  31. San Francisco 49ers: 10-3
  32. Baltimore Ravens: 10-3

Looking Into Chiefs’ 2023 WR Plan

December 7th, 2023 at 10:21am CST by Sam Robinson

Disbanding a historically potent Travis Kelce–Tyreek Hill duo in March 2022, the Chiefs got by rather well last season. With JuJu Smith-Schuster approaching 1,000 yards and drawing the 2022 season’s defining holding penalty, Kansas City — with aid from a dominant Kelce season — withstood the Hill loss en route to its third Super Bowl title. The team’s second post-Hill receiving corps has been less useful, and the group’s output thus far has held this era’s most explosive offense back.

With Kelce in his age-34 season, the Chiefs entrusted an assortment of unproven options alongside the future first-ballot Hall of Famer. Kansas City’s offense still ranks fourth in DVOA, though it is 11th in scoring (after finishing no worse than sixth in any season during the Patrick Mahomes QB1 period). The Chiefs have also failed to score 20 points on five occasions this season; during Mahomes’ previous five seasons at the controls, the team had combined for just six such outings (h/t NFL.com).

The team attempted to address this issue in free agency, on the trade market and in the draft, but its efforts proved insufficient. The Chiefs have shifted to a roster-building blueprint around Mahomes’ mega-extension, one the club updated in September after this year’s run of QB deals further dropped the two-time MVP’s number within the QB salary hierarchy. But Kansas City did begin negotiations with Hill on a third contract in 2022, only to see Las Vegas’ Davante Adams trade/extension change the complexion of those talks. With Hill in Miami, the Chiefs’ margin for error shrunk.

In free agency, the Chiefs displayed interest in re-signing Smith-Schuster. But Andy Reid confirmed the team’s offer was not close to the Patriots’ three-year, $25.5MM ($16MM fully guaranteed) proposal. Although Smith-Schuster totaled 933 yards last season — by far the most among Chiefs wideouts — he has struggled to fill the Jakobi Meyers void in New England. Part of the reason for the Chiefs’ limited interest in Smith-Schuster: a belief Kadarius Toney could grow into a No. 1-caliber wide receiver with the benefit of a full offseason program. The 2022 trade acquisition has managed to put together his healthiest stretch in the NFL, missing just one game despite summer knee surgery, but the former Giants first-rounder has just 22 receptions for 139 yards while logging a 23% snap rate.

Letting Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman walk in free agency, the Chiefs inquired on Odell Beckham Jr. in March, after pursuing the talented but injury-riddled wideout in 2021 and ’22. But the Ravens’ $15MM guarantee abruptly closed that market. That deal also impacted the Chiefs’ trade talks with the Cardinals on DeAndre Hopkins.

The Chiefs and Bills had discussed terms with the Cards, but the OBJ guarantee nixed Hopkins’ interest in reworking his contract to facilitate a trade. The Chiefs later offered Hopkins an incentive-laden deal in free agency, joining the Patriots in doing so, while the Titans topped these proposals by giving the former All-Pro a $10.98MM guarantee on a two-year pact.

During Hopkins’ summer free agency stay, Kansas City had offered a $4MM base salary while including incentives that would have taken the contract to $10MM. By the time Hopkins became a free agent, the Chiefs had already used a chunk of their cap space to bring in left tackle Donovan Smith after the draft. No cap relief came from a Chris Jones extension — an offseason component Hopkins is believed to have factored into his free agency plan — with the All-Pro defensive tackle still headed toward free agency in 2024. Hopkins (774 yards, five touchdowns) has stayed healthy this season and is on pace for a seventh 1,000-yard year.

Kansas City did re-sign Justin Watson in April (two years, $3.4MM) and reacquired Hardman from the Jets in October. A former Buccaneers backup, Watson sits third in Chiefs receiving yards (332). Former second-round pick Skyy Moore, who had been expected to take a second-year leap, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling — in Year 2 of a three-year, $30MM accord — have joined Toney in offering inconsistency. Neither Moore nor Valdes-Scantling has topped 275 yards entering Week 14. This season represents a step back for MVS, who totaled 687 yards last year and topped 100 in the AFC championship game. Thanks largely to the Valdes-Scantling contract that features an $11MM 2023 cap number, the Chiefs rank 17th in wide receiver cap allocation this season.

The draft both brought failures and the team’s saving grace at receiver. After meeting with each of this class’ top receivers, the Chiefs attempted to trade up in Round 1. They had effectively done this in 2022, leapfrogging the Bills to draft Trent McDuffie. This year, the Chiefs were connected to Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison. Knowing of the Chiefs’ interest, the Ravens chose Flowers 22nd overall. Both Kansas City and New Orleans attempted to trade into Minnesota’s No. 23 slot, with Addison being the target amid the draft’s mid-first-round run on receivers. The Vikings stood pat and drafted Addison, who has shown immediate promise.

While the Chiefs ultimately settled for Rashee Rice at No. 50 overall, the SMU product’s development has been the clear silver lining. Rice’s 591 yards trail only Kelce for the defending champions, and after inconsistent usage during the season’s first half, the 6-foot-2 target has played at least 60% of the team’s offensive snaps in four of the past five games. Rice’s 8.4 yards after catch per reception trails only Deebo Samuel among wideouts this season, per Next Gen Stats.

Beyond Hardman, the Chiefs passed on bolstering their offense at the deadline. Results have remained choppy since, though Rice’s increased involvement has been a notable plot point. The team is expecting improvement from its young targets, per NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport. While questions regarding wideout viability will persist into the 2024 offseason, the Chiefs have at least one long-term box checked via Rice. With Kelce on the back nine of his remarkable career, the Chiefs’ 2024 receiver plan will become more important than what transpired this offseason.

After a number of what-ifs defined the Chiefs’ offseason at the position, it appears a certainty the perennial AFC West champions will make a more concerted effort to add aerial weaponry in 2024. But how this Chiefs contingent fares down the stretch this season will be a key AFC storyline.

Updated 2024 NFL Draft Order

December 1st, 2023 at 1:46pm CST by Adam La Rose

With Week 13 underway, the picture at the top of the NFL draft board continues to become clearer. Plenty is yet to be determined with respect to the top of the order, however.

The Panthers’ ongoing struggles led to Frank Reich‘s firing, but the Bears own Carolina’s top pick this year due to the 2023 swap which landed Bryce Young via the No. 1 selection. Chicago being able to have the top pick once again – coupled with their own selection landing in the top-10 – would make the Bears a team to watch closely come April. The race for the top two or three slots (and, as such, the ability to draft QBs Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, along with wideout Marvin Harrison Jr.) will also be a key late-season storyline for the Cardinals and Patriots.

The Commanders have lost three straight games, overshadowing a promising season from first-year starter Sam Howell. After deciding to move on from defensive ends Chase Young and Montez Sweat at the trade deadline, the team’s defense has continued to struggle. DC Jack Del Rio is out as a result, and head coach Ron Rivera‘s position is not believed to be on strong footing. A top-five pick could make the job in Washington more attractive presuming a opening arises this offseason.

For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2024 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is an updated look at the current draft order:

  1. Chicago Bears (via Panthers)
  2. Arizona Cardinals: 2-10
  3. New England Patriots: 2-9
  4. Chicago Bears: 4-8
  5. Washington Commanders: 4-8
  6. New York Giants: 4-8
  7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4-7
  8. New York Jets: 4-7
  9. Los Angeles Chargers: 4-7
  10. Tennessee Titans: 4-7
  11. Las Vegas Raiders: 5-7
  12. New Orleans Saints: 5-6
  13. Green Bay Packers: 5-6
  14. Los Angeles Rams: 5-6
  15. Cincinnati Bengals: 5-6
  16. Buffalo Bills: 6-6
  17. Arizona Cardinals (via Texans)
  18. Denver Broncos: 6-5
  19. Atlanta Falcons: 5-6
  20. Minnesota Vikings: 6-6
  21. Seattle Seahawks: 6-6
  22. Indianapolis Colts: 6-5
  23. Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-4
  24. Houston Texans (via Browns)
  25. Miami Dolphins: 8-3
  26. Detroit Lions: 8-3
  27. Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-3
  28. Dallas Cowboys: 9-3
  29. Kansas City Chiefs: 8-3
  30. San Francisco 49ers: 8-3
  31. Baltimore Ravens: 9-3
  32. Philadelphia Eagles: 10-1

Poll: Who Will Win NFL MVP Award?

November 21st, 2023 at 11:18am CST by Sam Robinson

Through 11 weeks, this NFL season has not produced an MVP favorite. Oddsmakers have slotted a number of usual suspects as frontrunners, but the stretch run will be important to generating a lead candidate.

No non-quarterback has won this award since Adrian Peterson‘s 2,097-yard rushing season edged Peyton Manning‘s Broncos debut in 2012, though J.J. Watt did finish second in voting in 2014. A quarterback will be expected to claim the honors this season, but that player has not declared himself just yet.

Two of the favorites faced off Monday night, with Jalen Hurts‘ Eagles besting the Chiefs in a Super Bowl LVII rematch. The Chiefs stifled Hurts for much of Philadelphia’s 21-17 win, but the dual-threat passer came through late. He is also the quarterback on the NFL’s only one-loss team. Hurts would have represented a strong MVP challenger to Patrick Mahomes last year, but a late-season shoulder injury led to the Chiefs superstar pulling away. QBR ranks the Super Bowl LVII QBs fifth and sixth, respectively, with Mahomes slipping to No. 5 after Kansas City’s loss.

After Hurts’ breakthrough 2022, the Eagles gave the fourth-year QB a then-record five-year, $255MM extension — one that set the market for Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow. Hurts has accounted for 24 touchdowns — nine on the ground, as he makes a case as the most unstoppable short-yardage QB rusher in NFL history — and has upped his completion percentage (68.5) from 2022.

Mahomes responded to the Tyreek Hill trade by notching the first MVP-Super Bowl MVP since Kurt Warner in 1999, and the Chiefs updated his contract to fall in line with the market Hurts helped set. Kansas City, however, has seen its oft-questioned wide receiver setup play a big role in both its home losses this year. Mahomes ranks 20th in yards per attempt, at 6.9; he cleared eight in each of his two MVP campaigns. With Travis Kelce in his age-34 season, will the seventh-year QB be able to overcome a suspect receiver setup?

Brock Purdy is leading the NFL (by a wide margin, at 9.7) in yards per attempt. After a midseason slump, Purdy has put together two strong games. He accomplished the 49ers’ first perfect passer rating in a game since 1989. Last year’s Mr. Irrelevant has been a revelation for the 49ers, who have his seventh-round contract on the books through 2025. Purdy also leads the league in QBR, providing an efficient season while blessed with an elite skill-position corps. Although this skill group could end up working against Purdy, he would become the most unlikely MVP since Warner.

No. 2 in QBR, Dak Prescott has put together a strong stretch since the Cowboys endured a blowout loss in San Francisco. After four straight one-touchdown showings, the eighth-year Cowboys starter has 13 TD tosses over his past four games. At this pace, the 30-year-old passer will be in position for another monster contract. With the franchise tag off the table and a $59MM cap hit awaiting in his 2024 contract year, Prescott is in one of the most player-friendly extension positions in league history.

Jackson sits ninth in QBR but has the Ravens perched as the AFC’s top seed for the time being. Given a $52MM-per-year deal that differed from his peers’ 2023 re-ups — in that it contains no extra years of control due to it coming after a Ravens franchise tag — Jackson is still operating a run-oriented offense. His 12 touchdown passes rank 16th, though his yards per attempt (8.1) and completion rate (69.5) figures are in the top six. Among this year’s contenders, Jackson joins Mahomes as the only former MVPs.

No rookie has claimed this award since Jim Brown in 1957, but this particular season does keep the door slightly ajar for C.J. Stroud. Almost no one expected the Texans to be in the playoff race, and the team sweeping the Jaguars would move an AFC South title closer to reality. Stroud has run away with the Offensive Rookie of the Year race, doing so despite numerous O-line injuries. The No. 2 overall pick’s 2,962 passing yards sit second, but QBR places the Ohio State product 12th. Stroud’s three-INT game against the Cardinals hurt his cause, but the Houston rookie still has some time to make a historic push.

While Jared Goff (seventh in QBR) was once the throw-in in a trade that keyed a Matthew Stafford-led Rams Super Bowl charge, the Lions are 8-2 for the first time in 61 years. Detroit is 1-2 against teams with winning records, but a favorable schedule down the stretch stands to allow Goff — in Year 2 with OC Ben Johnson running the show — to make a case. The Lions ending up with home-field advantage in the NFC would obviously strengthen the former No. 1 overall pick’s cause. Regardless, the 29-year-old QB has moved into position for a lucrative Lions extension.

How the AFC East plays out stands to produce a contender. Although Josh Allen‘s turnover issues helped lead the Bills to fire OC Ken Dorsey, the sixth-year superstar leads the NFL with 22 TD passes (while pacing the league with 12 picks) while adding seven more scores on the ground. Tua Tagovailoa ranks just 10th in QBR — six spots behind Allen — and the Dolphins have fallen short in matchups against the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles. That said, the Bills have five losses to the Dolphins’ three. Miami first-place scoring ranking will obviously benefit its ascending passer, though Tua could conceivably split votes with Hill.

No wide receiver has ever won MVP acclaim, and Hill’s off-field history will not help his case. But his impact on the Dolphins has been undeniable. The former Chiefs speed merchant has changed Tagovailoa’s career trajectory, and the eighth-year wideout leads the NFL with 1,222 receiving yards — in front by 209 — despite the Dolphins already resting during a bye week. While Jerry Rice and Calvin Johnson could not parlay their receiving yardage records into MVP honors — respectively losing out to Brett Favre (1995) and Peterson (2012) — this QB pace persisting would stand to keep Hill going. Christian McCaffrey also makes sense as a candidate. His midseason 2022 arrival catalyzed the 49ers, and despite missing a game, the ex-Panthers extension recipient leads the NFL with 825 rushing yards. No other RB has posted more than 700, and this would obviously be an interesting year to see a running back emerge as a true MVP candidate.

Could this be the year a defender sneaks through? Only Alan Page and Lawrence Taylor have done so, but with no QB residing as a clear frontrunner, is a door ajar for Myles Garrett or T.J. Watt powering offensively limited teams? Is there an off-grid player who shapes up as a late-season threat? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on the race in the comments section.

Who will win the NFL MVP award?
Jalen Hurts 20.88% (352 votes)
Christian McCaffrey 11.98% (202 votes)
C.J. Stroud 11.86% (200 votes)
Brock Purdy 11.21% (189 votes)
Lamar Jackson 10.97% (185 votes)
Tyreek Hill 9.61% (162 votes)
Patrick Mahomes 6.64% (112 votes)
Tua Tagovailoa 5.10% (86 votes)
Someone else (specify in comments) 4.51% (76 votes)
Dak Prescott 4.27% (72 votes)
Josh Allen 2.97% (50 votes)
Total Votes: 1,686

Injured Reserve Return Tracker

November 11th, 2023 at 9:45pm CST by Sam Robinson

After a 2022 rule change, teams can activate up to eight players from injured reserve. That has reintroduced some strategy into how franchises proceed with their activations, and teams will again need to be cognizant of their activation counts in 2023.

The NFL had reintroduced IR-return options in the 2010s, after a period in which an IR move meant a player’s season was over. But the COVID-19 pandemic prompted the league to loosen restrictions on IR from 2020-21. Teams were permitted to use unlimited activations to start the decade, but roster math is again a consideration.

Players who land on IR after cutdown day must miss at least four games. Once a team designates a player for return, the activation clock starts. Clubs have 21 days from a player’s return-to-practice date to activate that player. If no activation commences in that window, the player reverts to season-ending IR.

Here is how the NFL’s remaining two IR situations look for Super Bowl LVIII:

Kansas City Chiefs

Activated:

Designated for return:

Eligible for activation:

Activations remaining: 3

San Francisco 49ers

Designated for return:

Reverted to season-ending IR:

Eligible for activation:

Activations remaining: 4

Poll: Who Will Win AFC North?

November 10th, 2023 at 10:05pm CST by Sam Robinson

Divisions have produced four playoff teams previously. The 1994 NFC Central sent every team but the Buccaneers to the postseason, while the 1998 AFC East moved every team but the Colts — in Peyton Manning‘s rookie season — into that year’s playoff field. (The NFC Central also accomplished this in 1982, but eight teams made each conference’s field due to the strike-induced format change.) The NFL realigning its divisions, killing the five-team divisional setup, in 2002 made it impossible for four teams in one quartet to venture to the playoffs. The 2020 expansion to a 14-team postseason field, however, reopened that door.

Entering Week 10, the AFC’s seven-team “if the season ended today” field would consist of the division-leading Chiefs, Jaguars and Dolphins, along with the fourth North-division clubs. No other division features more than two teams with winning records; the AFC North carries four. This is shaping up to be one of the most interesting divisional stretch runs in modern NFL history.

The Ravens lead the way at 7-2 and hold a runaway DVOA lead on the rest of the NFL. Baltimore’s defense leads the league in points allowed and paces the NFL in sacks — by four — with 35. The Ravens’ summer additions of Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy have paid dividends. Clowney’s 11 QB hits trail only Justin Madubuike‘s 14, while Van Noy now has at least five sacks in six of the past seven seasons. The veteran linebacker has managed to get there despite being signed in late September. Van Noy, 32, is on a one-year, $1.6MM deal; Clowney, 30, signed for one year and $2.5MM. The team’s $20MM-per-year Roquan Smith extension is paying off early; Pro Football Focus ranks the ex-Bears top-10 pick fourth among off-ball linebackers.

QBR slots Lamar Jackson 11th, and the Ravens remain a run-oriented team. Though, Jackson is operating efficiently in Todd Monken‘s offense. The team’s remaining schedule resides as the NFL’s second-toughest — in part because of the AFC North games remaining — though the squad with the hardest slate remaining may be the Ravens’ top competitor for this hotly contested crown.

Joe Burrow‘s return to full strength has reinvigorated the Bengals, who made the fourth-year passer the NFL’s highest-paid player. After the Ravens and Chargers incrementally moved the AAV bar following the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts extension, the Bengals slid it to $55MM for Burrow. The superstar passer is back in form, leading Cincinnati to four straight wins. The Bengals (5-3) have now downed the 49ers and Bills on the road, but Tankathon slots their remaining schedule as by far the most difficult. Trips to Kansas City and Jacksonville remain, but the two-time reigning AFC North champs are surging at midseason, aiming to turn another 0-2 start into a playoff home game.

Moving forward without Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell, the Bengals have not seen their safety setup match Bates’ Falcons work. Then again, the team was not exactly expecting that, given Bates’ talent and $16MM-per-year price tag. Cincinnati keeping its linebacker tandem (Logan Wilson–Germaine Pratt) together has provided considerable help, though the team continues to run into injury trouble on offense. The Bengals faced the Ravens during Burrow’s early-season health issue, losing at home and raising the stakes for the sides’ Thursday-night tilt in Week 11.

The most notable improvement by an AFC North unit comes in Cleveland, where the Jim Schwartz DC hire is looking like one of the best assistant additions in recent memory. The Browns have gone from a miscommunication-plagued defense to one that is producing dominant efforts. The Browns held the Cardinals to 57 total yards, the team’s fewest since 1955, and has seen Myles Garrett (9.5 sacks) become a Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner (and surefire candidate for a market-setting second extension). Offseason adds Za’Darius Smith and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo have boosted the Browns as well, and Cleveland’s elite pass defense led to the 5-3 mark amid the Deshaun Watson shoulder saga.

The highly paid quarterback returned in Week 9 but has still not closely resembled his Houston version, with the off-field issues that produced a historic hiatus still impacting the former Pro Bowler’s trajectory. As the Browns’ defense leads the NFL in DVOA, its offense ranks 28th. Watson’s rotator cuff issue will be a key divisional subplot, and the team seeing both tackles join Nick Chubb on IR will make matters tougher. But Cleveland’s defense is providing a strong safety net thus far.

Also 5-3, the Steelers rank 14th in DVOA. Punching-bag OC Matt Canada continues to draw heat, with Pittsburgh’s defense also carrying an inconsistent offense. The Steelers have notched home wins over the Browns and Ravens — even as their streak without 400 total yards has reached 56 games. Kenny Pickett sits 27th in QBR, but the team has been without Pat Freiermuth and Diontae Johnson for chunks of the season. That has not stopped calls for Canada’s ouster, as the 2022 first-round QB’s work down the stretch will help determine how the Steelers see the Pitt product in the long term.

T.J. Watt has stayed healthy this season, and the Watt-Alex Highsmith duo remains one of the NFL’s best. The now-well-paid pair, with Highsmith signed to a $17MM-AAV extension, has combined for 14 sacks and 31 QB hits. PFF does rate 33-year-old Patrick Peterson and holdover Levi Wallace outside the top 90 among cornerbacks, with Joey Porter Jr. sitting 25th despite not starting for the season’s first six games. Cole Holcomb‘s season-ending injury, and Minkah Fitzpatrick‘s hamstring trouble stand to be issues to monitor for this defense, however.

Who will end up winning this captivating race? The Bengals and Steelers still have four divisional games left, the Browns and Ravens three. How many playoff teams will this division produce? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

Who will win the AFC North?
Baltimore Ravens 49.15% (952 votes)
Cincinnati Bengals 26.59% (515 votes)
Pittsburgh Steelers 14.04% (272 votes)
Cleveland Browns 10.22% (198 votes)
Total Votes: 1,937

Updated 2024 NFL Draft Order

November 10th, 2023 at 8:44am CST by Adam La Rose

Yesterday’s Panthers-Bears game carried signficant draft implications, as many noted in the build-up to the primetime matchup. With Carolina having dealt its 2024 first-round pick to Chicago as part of the deal involving last year’s No. 1 selection, the Bears were able to boost their chances of picking first in April with a win.

Owning the top selection in a draft touted for having multiple high-end options at the quarterback spot would of course add further to the speculation surrounding Justin Fields. The Bears gave the 24-year-old a vote of confidence last spring by trading out of the No. 1 slot, but he has yet to develop as hoped this season. Chicago could opt for a fresh start under center (particularly if they declined Fields’ fifth-year option) this spring while also having the opportunity to add help elsewhere on the roster with their own first-rounder, which seems destined to fall within the top 10 or perhaps even top five selections.

Of course, teams like the Giants, Cardinals and Patriots have experienced signficant troubles of their own this year. A continuation of their first half performances could leave them in pole position for the Caleb Williams–Drake Maye sweepstakes. All three teams face potential uncertainty with respect to their current passers’ futures, despite each having term remaining on their respective contracts.

For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2024 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. With plenty still to be sorted out over the coming months, here is an early look at the current draft order:

  1. Chicago Bears (via Panthers)
  2. Arizona Cardinals: 1-8
  3. New York Giants: 2-7
  4. New England Patriots: 2-7
  5. Chicago Bears: 3-7
  6. Los Angeles Rams: 3-6
  7. Green Bay Packers: 3-5
  8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3-5
  9. Denver Broncos: 3-5
  10. Tennessee Titans: 3-5
  11. Atlanta Falcons: 4-5
  12. Washington Commanders: 4-5
  13. Indianapolis Colts: 4-5
  14. Las Vegas Raiders: 4-5
  15. Arizona Cardinals (via Texans)
  16. New York Jets: 4-4
  17. Los Angeles Chargers: 4-4
  18. Buffalo Bills: 5-4
  19. New Orleans Saints: 5-4
  20. Minnesota Vikings: 5-4
  21. Dallas Cowboys: 5-3
  22. Pittsburgh Steelers: 5-3
  23. Houston Texans (via Browns)
  24. Cincinnati Bengals: 5-3
  25. Seattle Seahawks: 5-3
  26. San Francisco 49ers: 5-3
  27. Miami Dolphins: 6-3
  28. Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-2
  29. Detroit Lions: 6-2
  30. Baltimore Ravens: 7-2
  31. Kansas City Chiefs: 7-2
  32. Philadelphia Eagles: 8-1

Poll: Who Fared Best At Trade Deadline

November 7th, 2023 at 10:05pm CST by Sam Robinson

A week removed from this year’s trade deadline, every team will soon have its acquired talent in uniform. The 49ers, Lions and Jaguars made trades while in bye weeks; Chase Young, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Ezra Cleveland will suit up for their new teams soon.

On this note, it is time to gauge the position every notable buyer and seller landed in following the deals. This year’s deadline featured two second-round picks being moved, though the teams that made those moves (Chicago, Seattle) have different timelines in place.

We have to start with the Commanders, who scrapped their yearslong Young-Montez Sweat partnership by making the surprise decision to move both defensive ends hours before the deadline. Although the team was listening to offers on both, it was widely assumed they would only part with one, thus saving a contract offer or a 2024 franchise tag for the other alongside well-paid D-tackles Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen. New owner Josh Harris looks to have made his bigger-picture plan clear, however, pressing upon the Commanders’ football-ops department to explore moving both.

Washington collected a second-rounder that likely will land in the 30s in exchange for Sweat, who was in a contract year at the time. It only obtained a compensatory third for Young, who drew interest from other teams (including the Ravens). For the first time in the common draft era, Washington holds five picks in the first three rounds. It cannot be assumed Ron Rivera and GM Martin Mayhew will be making those picks, but Harris has effectively forced his hot-seat staffers to make do this season without Young and Sweat, who have combined for 11.5 sacks this year.

The initial team to pounce on the Commanders’ sale made a buyer’s move despite being in a seller’s position for the second straight year. After trading what became the No. 32 overall pick for Chase Claypool, GM Ryan Poles signed off on the Sweat pickup. The Bears have struggled to rush the passer under Matt Eberflus, having traded Khalil Mack in March 2022 and Robert Quinn last October. While acquiring a veteran in a contract year injects risk into the equation, Poles had the franchise tag at his disposal. But the Bears made good use of their newfound negotiating rights with Sweat, extending him on a four-year, $98MM pact. Despite no Pro Bowls or double-digit sack seasons, Sweat is now the NFL’s fifth-highest-paid edge rusher. Though, the Bears’ long-term edge outlook appears rosier compared to its pre-Halloween view.

Mayhew, Robert Saleh and Mike McDaniel have provided third-round compensatory picks for the 49ers, who have been the NFL’s chief beneficiary of the Rooney Rule tweak that awards third-round picks to teams who see minority coaches or execs become HCs or GMs. The team has more picks coming after the Ran Carthon and DeMeco Ryans hires. Using one to acquire Young seems like a low-risk move, given the former Defensive Rookie of the Year’s talent. Young has made strides toward recapturing the form he showed before his severe 2021 knee injury, and he is on pace for a career high in sacks.

The 49ers, who won last year’s trade deadline by landing Christian McCaffrey, will deploy Young alongside ex-college teammate Nick Bosa and the rest of their high-priced D-line contingent. The team will have a decision to make on Young soon; the free agent-to-be is not eyeing in-season extension talks, either. San Francisco could at least be in position to nab a midround compensatory pick, should Young leave in 2024.

The Young move came a day after the Seahawks obtained Leonard Williams from the Giants. That move cost Seattle second- and fifth-round picks. Williams is also in a contract year, but with the Giants picking up most of the tab, Seattle has the veteran D-tackle on its cap sheet at $647K. The former Jets top-10 pick has shown consistent ability to provide inside pressure, and the USC alum’s best work came in his previous contract year (2020). Gunning for another big payday, Williams joins Dre’Mont Jones in what is probably the best interior D-line duo of the Seahawks’ Pete Carroll era.

Seattle still surrendered a second-round pick for a player who could be a rental. Williams cannot realistically be franchise-tagged in 2024, with the Giants tagging him in 2020 and ’21, and he is not yet on Seattle’s extension radar. The Giants have already paid Dexter Lawrence and were planning on letting Williams walk. They passed on a comp pick for the trade haul, effectively buying a second-round pick in the way the Broncos did in the 2021 Von Miller trade. The Giants, who suddenly could be in the market for a 2024 QB addition, now have an additional second-rounder at their disposal.

While they made their move a week before the deadline, the Eagles landed the most accomplished player of this year’s in-season trade crop. Kevin Byard is a two-time first-team All-Pro safety, and although he is in his age-30 season, the former third-round pick is signed through 2024. The Eagles sent the Titans fifth- and sixth-round picks (and Terrell Edmunds) for Byard, a Philadelphia native, marking the team’s second splash trade for a safety in two years. Philly’s C.J. Gardner-Johnson swap turned out well, and Byard not being a pure rental could make this a better move.

Rather than turning to a fifth-round rookie, the Vikings acquired Josh Dobbs in a pick swap involving sixth- and/or seventh-rounders and saw the move translate to a surprising Week 9 win. Dobbs following in Baker Mayfield‘s footsteps as a trade acquisition-turned-immediate starter also made him the rare QB to see extensive action for two teams in two weeks; Mayfield was inactive in his final game as a Panther. The well-traveled Dobbs could give the Vikings a better chance to stay afloat in the NFC playoff race.

The Lions (Peoples-Jones), Jaguars (Cleveland) and Bills (Rasul Douglas) also made buyer’s moves at the deadline. The Bills gave the Packers a third-round pick, collecting a fifth in the pick-swap deal, for Douglas. They will hope the Green Bay starter can help stabilize their cornerback corps after Tre’Davious White‘s second major injury.

Who ended up faring the best at this year’s deadline? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this year’s moves in the comments section.

Who fared the best at this year's trade deadline?
San Francisco 49ers 33.89% (572 votes)
Washington Commanders 15.11% (255 votes)
Chicago Bears 13.21% (223 votes)
Minnesota Vikings 10.78% (182 votes)
Philadelphia Eagles 8.29% (140 votes)
Seattle Seahawks 4.74% (80 votes)
Detroit Lions 4.68% (79 votes)
Green Bay Packers 4.03% (68 votes)
Buffalo Bills 3.79% (64 votes)
Jacksonville Jaguars 1.48% (25 votes)
Total Votes: 1,688

2023 NFL Trades

October 31st, 2023 at 10:16pm CST by Sam Robinson

The 2023 NFL trading period is now over. Dozens of trades — some in the roster-reshaping mold, others executed for depth purposes — ended up coming to pass. Since the NFL moved its trade deadline from Week 6 to Week 8 in 2012, trades have gradually become a more important part of the league’s roster builds.

An argument can be made the NFL should move its deadline deeper into the season, as the MLB, NBA and NHL deadlines come after the midpoint. The NFL moving to a 17-game/18-week slate in 2021, after 43 years at 16 games, also factors into this line of thinking. For now, the league will still force its buyers and sellers to assess their teams fully by Week 8.

To gauge the value of the moves teams have made, here are the trades completed across the league in 2023. (Note: only trades involving veteran players, as opposed to draft-weekend deals only involving picks, are listed here.)

January 31

The Saints chose defensive tackle Bryan Bresee at No. 29 overall

March 9

March 10

  • Bears send Panthers No. 1 overall pick in exchange for No. 9, No. 61, a 2024 first-rounder and 2025 second

The Panthers chose Bryce Young first overall; the Bears traded down from No. 9 to No. 19, drafting tackle Darnell Wright. Trading up from No. 61 to No. 56, Chicago chose cornerback Tyrique Stevenson.

March 12

The Rams selected outside linebacker Byron Young at No. 77 overall

March 13

New England selected defensive back Isaiah Bolden at No. 245

March 14

Houston used the No. 230 pick in a package to trade up for center Juice Scruggs in Round 2; Tampa Bay packaged No. 179 to move up for guard Cody Mauch in Round 2

At No. 100, the Raiders drafted wide receiver Tre Tucker

The Colts selected running back Evan Hull at No. 176

March 20

The Texans used No. 161 to trade up for wide receiver Tank Dell

March 22

The Jets included No. 42 in the picks package sent to the Packers for Aaron Rodgers; the Browns chose wide receiver Cedric Tillman at No. 74

March 25

April 11

The Lions packaged No. 159 to move up for defensive back Brian Branch in Round 2

April 18

The Rams agreed to pay $5MM of Robinson’s 2023 salary. At No. 234, the Rams chose cornerback Jason Taylor II; at 251, the Steelers selected offensive lineman Spencer Anderson.

April 24

  • Packers send QB Aaron Rodgers, Nos. 15, 170 to Jets for Nos. 13, 42, 207, conditional 2024 second-round pick

Rodgers needed to play 65% of the Jets’ 2023 offensive snaps for the 2024 pick to become a first-rounder; his Week 1 Achilles tear will prevent that from happening. At No. 13, the Packers chose pass rusher Lukas Van Ness; at 15, the Jets took defensive end Will McDonald. At Nos. 42 and 207, Green Bay respectively chose tight end Luke Musgrave and kicker Anders Carlson. The Jets moved down from No. 170, picking up an additional seventh-round pick. 

April 29

At No. 219, the Lions chose wide receiver Antoine Green; at 249, the Eagles selected defensive tackle Moro Ojomo

The Saints chose wide receiver A.T. Perry at No. 195; the Broncos selected center Alex Forsyth at 257

May 12

May 25

July 19

  • Jets move WR Denzel Mims, 2025 seventh-round pick to Lions for conditional 2025 sixth-rounder

Mims needed to make the Lions’ 53-man roster for the pick to convey. With the Lions cutting Mims with an injury settlement in August, the Jets will not end up receiving a pick in this trade.

August 24

August 25

August 27

August 28

August 29

September 20

Akers must tally more than 500 yards from scrimmage to meet the conditional requirement

October 4

October 6

The Broncos agreed to pay all but the prorated veteran minimum of Gregory’s 2023 base salary

October 10

October 18

October 23

October 30

Giants agreed to pay all but the prorated veteran minimum on Williams’ remaining $10MM in base salary

Street must play in at least six games as a Falcon to meet the conditional requirement

October 31

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