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Largest 2023 Cap Hits: Defense

July 12th, 2023 at 9:52am CST by Sam Robinson

While the NFL’s top 2023 cap hits go to players on offense, a number of pass rushers are tied to lofty figures as well. None check in higher than Giants defensive lineman Leonard Williams.

Williams and Chiefs D-tackle Chris Jones carry high contract-year cap hits, while the Steelers’ two front-seven cornerstones each are set to go into training camp with cap figures north of $20MM. As the salary cap climbed to $224.8MM this year, here are the top defensive cap figures as camps near:

  1. Leonard Williams, DL (Giants): $32.26MM
  2. T.J. Watt, OLB (Steelers): $29.37MM
  3. Myles Garrett, DE (Browns): $29.18MM
  4. Chris Jones, DT (Chiefs): $28.29MM
  5. Aaron Donald, DL (Rams): $26MM
  6. Arik Armstead, DT (49ers): $23.95MM
  7. Cameron Heyward, DL (Steelers): $22.26MM
  8. C.J. Mosley, LB (Jets): $21.48MM
  9. Jonathan Allen, DT (Commanders): $21.44MM
  10. Shaquil Barrett, OLB (Buccaneers): $21.25MM
  11. Grady Jarrett, DT (Falcons): $20.63MM
  12. Marlon Humphrey, CB (Ravens): $19.99MM
  13. Shaquille Leonard, LB (Colts): $19.79MM
  14. Kevin Byard, S (Titans): $19.62MM
  15. Adoree’ Jackson, CB (Giants): $19.08MM
  16. Harold Landry, OLB (Titans): $18.8MM
  17. Justin Simmons, S (Broncos): $18.15MM
  18. Jamal Adams, S (Seahawks): $18.11MM
  19. Matt Judon, DE (Patriots): $18.107MM
  20. Quandre Diggs, S (Seahawks): $18.1MM
  21. Nick Bosa, DE (49ers): $17.9MM
  22. DeForest Buckner, DT (Colts): $17.25MM
  23. Emmanuel Ogbah, DE (Dolphins): $17.19MM
  24. DeMarcus Lawrence, DE (Cowboys): $17.11MM
  25. Eddie Jackson, S (Bears): $17.1MM

The Chiefs are working toward a second extension agreement with Jones, who is in the final season of a four-year, $80MM contract. A new deal with the star inside pass rusher would free up cap space, and DeAndre Hopkins is believed to be monitoring this situation.

As for Williams, the Giants had wanted to adjust his deal to reduce his eye-opening cap number. As of mid-June, however, no extension appeared to be on the team’s radar. The previous Giants regime signed off on the 2021 Williams extension (three years, $63MM). The Giants are also uninterested — for the time being, at least — in extending Jackson, who was also a Dave Gettleman-era defensive addition.

Donald is in the second season of a three-year, $95MM deal. The Rams gave Donald a landmark raise last year, convincing the all-everything D-tackle to squash retirement talk. A no-trade clause exists in Donald’s contract, which pays out its guarantees this year. Mosley remains tied to the $17MM-per-year deal the Mike Maccagnan regime authorized with the Jets. That contract, which reset the off-ball linebacker market in 2019, still has two seasons remaining on it due to the deal tolling after Mosley’s 2020 COVID-19 opt-out call. The Jets restructured the deal last year.

Washington now has two D-tackles tied to deals of at least $18MM per year. While Daron Payne‘s pact is worth more ($22.5MM AAV), higher cap hits on that deal will come down the road. Three years remain on Allen’s 2021 agreement. At safety, no team is spending like the Seahawks. In addition to the big-ticket deals authorized for Adams and Diggs, Seattle gave ex-Giants starter Julian Love a two-year, $6MM accord in March.

New Titans GM Ran Carthon attempted to give Byard a pay cut. That request did not go over well, but the standout safety remains with the team and has not requested a trade. Tennessee re-signed Landry on a five-year, $87.5MM deal in 2022; the veteran edge rusher has yet to play on that deal due to the ACL tear he sustained just before last season.

The 49ers can bring Bosa’s number down via an extension, which has long been on the team’s docket. As San Francisco extended Deebo Samuel just after training camp began last year, Bosa received back-burner treatment due to the fifth-year option. The star defensive end’s price undoubtedly went up during the waiting period, with the former No. 2 overall pick earning Defensive Player of the Year acclaim in the fourth year of his rookie contract.

This Date In Transactions History: Michael Irvin Retires

July 11th, 2023 at 9:50pm CST by Sam Robinson

Following a scary sight in Philadelphia during the 1999 season, Michael Irvin opted not to risk his health by attempting to return from a severe injury. The superstar Cowboys wide receiver instead called it quits during the 2000 offseason.

A central component in the Cowboys’ 1990s dynasty, Irvin was in his 12th NFL season when he suffered a spine injury at Veterans Stadium in October 1999. Cervical spinal stenosis became Irvin’s official diagnosis. Irvin, 34 at the time of his retirement, was temporarily paralyzed after hauling in a short pass from Troy Aikman. During the 2000 offseason, doctors had advised Irvin to walk away due to the risk a return posed.

“I like to think of myself as a warrior. I wanted to be dragged off the field, and I was,” Irvin said at the time. “… If I said there wasn’t serious thought [of coming back], I’d be lying to you. I tried to rationalize it: ‘Any hit can be your last hit. You’ve been doing that all you’re life.’ But I’ve accomplished a great deal of things that I wanted to accomplish and at this juncture there’s no need to risk it and go on.”

The decision brought an end to one of the best careers in Cowboys history. The first of Dallas’ famed “Triplets” to debut in the pros — a year before Aikman and two years before Emmitt Smith — Irvin joined the Cowboys after a much-discussed career at the University of Miami. In Tom Landry‘s final year as Cowboys head coach (1988), the team used its No. 11 overall pick on Irvin, who was reunited with his college HC — Jimmy Johnson — a year later. Irvin went on to become one of his era’s best wide receivers.

When Irvin was stretchered off the turf in Philly 24 years ago, his reception and receiving yardage totals (750 and 11,904) each ranked ninth in NFL history. Illustrating the pass-crazed nature of today’s game, those numbers have dropped to 44th and 29th, respectively. But Irvin earned a spot on the 1990s’ All-Decade team. His retirement also came five years after another of Jerry Rice‘s top contemporaries, Sterling Sharpe, left the game early due to a neck injury.

After leading the NFL in receiving during a breakout 1991 season — the Cowboys’ first playoff berth of the Johnson era — Irvin staged a holdout with the goal of becoming the league’s second-highest-paid receiver (behind Rice). A three-year, $3.75MM contract kept Irvin in uniform ahead of the 1992 season, a rather important year in Cowboys history. Dallas won the first of its three Super Bowls that season; the 6-foot-2 wideout caught two touchdown passes in the team’s 52-17 win over the Bills. Irvin made the Pro Bowl each year from 1991-95, with the final two seasons coming after the infamous Johnson-Jerry Jones split. The Cowboys gave their top aerial threat a raise (five years, $15MM) during the ’95 offseason. At the time, that contract was the richest in wide receiver history.

A drug arrest led to Irvin being suspended for the first five games of the 1996 season; the rangy receiver still led the NFL with 87.5 yards per game upon return. “The Playmaker” tacked on two more 1,000-yard years in his final two full seasons, en route to Hall of Fame induction in 2007.

Largest 2023 Cap Hits: Offense

July 11th, 2023 at 3:40pm CST by Sam Robinson

The NFL’s salary cap once again ballooned by more than $10MM, rising from its $208.2MM perch to $224.8MM. Factoring in the pandemic-induced 2021 regression, the NFL’s salary risen has climbed by more than $42MM since 2021.

This has allowed teams more opportunities for roster additions and opened the door for more lucrative player deals — at most positions, at least. However, it does not look like this season will include a $40MM player cap number. The Browns avoided a record-shattering Deshaun Watson $54.9MM hit by restructuring the quarterback’s fully guaranteed contract, calling for monster figures from 2024-26.

Here are the largest cap hits for teams on the offensive side going into training camp:

  1. Patrick Mahomes, QB (Chiefs): $39.69MM
  2. Ryan Tannehill, QB (Titans): $36.6MM
  3. Jared Goff, QB (Lions): $30.98MM
  4. Jake Matthews, T (Falcons): $28.36MM
  5. Trent Williams, T (49ers): $27.18MM
  6. Dak Prescott, QB (Cowboys): $26.83MM
  7. Laremy Tunsil, T (Texans): $26.61MM
  8. Jimmy Garoppolo, QB (49ers): $23.8MM
  9. Amari Cooper, WR (Browns): $23.78MM
  10. Mike Evans, WR (Buccaneers): $23.69MM
  11. Ronnie Stanley, T (Ravens): $23.67MM
  12. Joe Thuney, G (Chiefs): $22.12MM
  13. Russell Wilson, QB (Broncos): $22MM
  14. Lamar Jackson, QB (Ravens): $22MM
  15. Daniel Jones, QB (Giants): $21.75MM
  16. David Bakhtiari, T (Packers): $21.29MM
  17. Kirk Cousins, QB (Vikings): $20.25MM
  18. D.J. Moore, WR (Bears): $20.17MM
  19. Matthew Stafford, QB (Rams): $20MM
  20. Brian O’Neill, T (Vikings): $19.66MM
  21. Taylor Decker, T (Lions): $19.35MM
  22. Deshaun Watson, QB (Browns): $19.1MM
  23. Braden Smith, T (Colts): $19MM
  24. Josh Allen, QB (Bills): $18.64MM
  25. Courtland Sutton, WR (Broncos): $18.27MM

As should be expected, quarterbacks dominate this list. Mahomes’ number checks in here despite the Chiefs restructuring his 10-year, $450MM contract in March; the two-time MVP’s cap hit would have set an NFL record had Kansas City not reduced it. The Chiefs did not restructure Mahomes’ deal last year, but if they do not address it — perhaps via a complex reworking — before next season, Mahomes’ $46.93MM number would break an NFL record.

The Titans have not touched Tannehill’s contract this offseason, one that included some trade rumors months ago. This is the final year of Tannehill’s Tennessee extension. Mahomes and Tannehill sat atop this ranking in 2022.

Cousins is also heading into a contract year, after the Vikings opted for a restructure and not an extension this offseason. Cousins does not expect to discuss another Minnesota deal until 2024, when he is due for free agency. Two relatively low cap numbers have started Wilson’s $49MM-per-year extension. The Denver QB’s cap number rises to $35.4MM in 2024 and reaches historic heights ($55.4MM) by ’25. The subject of a Goff extension has come up, and it would bring down the Lions passer’s figure. But Goff remains tied to his Rams-constructed $33.5MM-per-year deal through 2024.

Jackson and Jones’ numbers will rise in the near future, with the latter’s contract calling for a quick spike in 2024. Next year, the Giants QB’s cap hit will be $45MM. Watson’s 2024 hit, as of now, would top that. The Browns signal-caller is on the team’s ’24 payroll at $63.98MM. Long-term consequences aside, the Browns can be expected to once again go to the restructure well with Watson’s outlier contract.

The Raiders did not backload Garoppolo’s three-year contract; it only climbs to $24.25MM on Las Vegas’ 2024 cap sheet. The Bills did backload Allen’s pact. Its team-friendly years are done after 2023; the six-year accord spikes to $47.1MM on Buffalo’s cap next year. The Cowboys have gone to the restructure well with Prescott. Like Watson, the Cowboys quarterback is tied to a seemingly untenable 2024 cap number. The March restructure resulted in Prescott’s 2024 number rising to $59.46MM. Two seasons remain on that $40MM-AAV extension.

Another notable cap hold that should be mentioned is Tom Brady‘s. When the Buccaneers did not sign the again-retired QB to another contract before the 2023 league year, his $35.1MM dead-money figure went onto Tampa Bay’s 2023 cap sheet. The Bucs will absorb that entire amount this year. Brady’s 2022 restructure, after retirement No. 1, led to the $35.1MM figure forming.

Were it not for another O-line-record extension, the Tunsil number would have come in at $35MM this year. Matthews signed an extension last year. Moore would have come in higher on this list were he still on the Panthers, who took on $14.6MM in dead money to move their top wideout for the No. 1 overall pick. Sutton came up regularly in trade rumors, with the Broncos wanting a second-round pick for the sixth-year veteran. The former second-rounder’s high base salary ($14MM) hinders his trade value.

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Rams

July 10th, 2023 at 9:50pm CST by Sam Robinson

Nothing gold can stay. From Sean McVay‘s 2017 arrival through the 2022 offseason, the Rams treated the football world to a win-now mantra. As draft pick-collecting crusades transpired elsewhere, the Rams’ recovery from a 12-year playoff drought produced two Super Bowl berths and a championship. Evading critics with a George Allen-esque, “eff them picks” M.O. that still leaves Jared Goff as the most recent first-rounder the franchise has drafted, the Rams should be lauded for the effort and ability to craft a championship-caliber roster largely without the cost shortcuts other teams lacking a top-shelf quarterback have relied upon in this era.

Los Angeles’ 5-12 offering last season — unequivocally the worst Super Bowl title defense in NFL history — paused the music, and the McVay-Les Snead duo operated with newfound restraint this offseason. The team that has traded its past seven first-round picks stripped its defense of a few linchpins and stopped its spree of big-ticket contracts after a busy 2022 on that front. The presence of cornerstone holdovers blended with a sudden cost-conscious approach makes the Rams’ 2023 outlook difficult to pin down.

Trades:

Rumors about a Ramsey Los Angeles exit started in January, and as an updated Rams blueprint became clearer, the trade winds blew in March. Less than four years after sending the Jaguars two first-round picks for Ramsey, the Rams accepted considerably less to move him. The cornerback’s desire for an updated contract, despite being tied to a top-five accord at his position, affected the compensation the Rams were able to fetch. The Dolphins have since adjusted Ramsey’s deal, giving the 28-year-old defender fully guaranteed salaries in 2023 and ’24.

Ramsey did reward the Rams, earning back-to-back first-team All-Pro nods from 2020-21 and anchoring a Super Bowl-winning team’s secondary. One of Snead’s “eff them picks” victories, Ramsey succeeded as a boundary corner and a matchup-based slot stopper. Pro Football Focus rated Ramsey as a top-10 corner in each of his three full Rams seasons, placing him first in 2021 and third overall during last season’s mess. Ramsey, who sought Miami (NBA-style) as a destination, played three seasons on his five-year, $100MM deal; the former top-five pick will tag the Rams with $19.6MM in dead money this year.

The Rams received good health and elite performance from Ramsey, making this a sobering return package. L.A. saw Aaron Donald‘s run of health cease with a high ankle sprain late last season, but Ramsey played all 17 games. The Florida State product delivered for a team that needed to place late-round picks or UDFAs across from him, though slot cog Troy Hill provided some veteran stability. Ramsey, Hill, Darious Williams and David Long are all out of the picture, leaving L.A. with a gaggle of Day 3 picks and Steelers castoff Ahkello Witherspoon at corner.

The Rams were able to recover from disbanding their Super Bowl LIII Aqib Talib–Marcus Peters pair, but Ramsey played the lead role there. Even with Donald, DC Raheem Morris will have a much tougher time assembling a high-end pass defense this season. Two years remain on Hunter Long’s rookie contract; the former third-round pick has one reception in 16 career games.

A 2022 effort to re-sign Von Miller last year failing led to a pivot to Robinson. That contingency plan burned the Rams, whose aggressiveness has involved a few bad contracts during the Snead-McVay years. Robinson was unable to shake off a down 2021, when he underwhelmed on a Bears franchise tag. His 2022 line: 33 receptions, 339 yards, three touchdowns before a season-ending surgery.

After giving Robinson permission to seek a trade, the Rams needed to pay $5MM of the 10th-year veteran’s 2023 guarantee to convince the Steelers to drop 17 spots in this year’s seventh round. This process continued a late-20s decline for the former Pro Bowler.

Cooper Kupp remains the Rams’ receiving anchor, and Robinson’s exit should not affect the team much. He was unable to create much separation and left defenses keying on the 2021 receiving triple-crown winner. But Kupp’s 2023 batch of wingmen either lack experience or present low ceilings. Kupp missed seven games last season; his 812 receiving yards led the Rams by more than 100 and paced all their wide receivers by over 400. Van Jefferson, an 802-yard receiver in 2021, will attempt to shake off a forgettable 2022. Utilityman Ben Skowronek (376 receiving yards last year), underwhelming and undersized second-round pick Tutu Atwell, UFA addition Demarcus Robinson and fifth-rounder Puka Nacua round out L.A.’s top-heavy receiving cadre.

Free agency additions:

All four of the Rams’ notable UFA acquisitions came after the draft. Michel, 28, looms as the most interesting, as the 2021 trade get has led two Super Bowl-winning teams in rushing. Cam Akers‘ July 2021 Achilles tear initially brought the ex-Patriots first-rounder to L.A. Michel proceeded to lead the Rams’ championship edition in rushing (845 yards — the most by a non-Todd Gurley Ram under McVay) and shed the injury concerns that plagued him with the Patriots by playing in all 21 Rams games that year. Michel spent last season with the Chargers but did not make much of an impact, rushing for only 106 yards and being cut before season’s end.

Despite McVay and Akers not being on the same page for much of last season, leading to a trade request and a genuine Rams effort to move him, the former second-rounder will be given another chance. With only 2022 fifth-rounder Kyren Williams and sixth-round rookie (and one-time five-star recruit) Zach Evans residing behind Akers, it would not surprise if Michel emerged as the Rams’ top backup. Akers, 24, is going into a contract year. With the once-promising Florida State talent not looking like himself much since that Achilles injury, this profiles as a crucial year for his NFL future.

Witherspoon started his career in San Francisco, starting 33 games in four Bay Area seasons. The 6-foot-2 defender signed with the Seahawks, but they traded him to the Steelers before the 2021 season began. Injuries impacted Witherspoon in Pittsburgh; he missed 21 games over the past two seasons. This league-minimum deal qualifies as a flier, but Pro Football Focus rated Witherspoon as a top-20 corner in 2020 and ’21.

Going into his age-29 season, Robinson has served as an auxiliary target for Alex Smith, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson in a seven-year career. A backup role might be in the cards for the former fourth-round pick. Robinson, however, has tallied three 400-plus-yard receiving seasons in the past four years. The last of those happened for a Baltimore team forced to trot out Tyler Huntley to close its season; Robinson also scored a touchdown in the Ravens’ playoff loss in Cincinnati.

Re-signings:

Shelton won the Rams’ starting right guard job out of training camp last year. From 2019-21, Shelton had made two starts. Illustrating the Rams’ injury plight last season, he was needed for 13. Having experience at center and guard, Shelton gives the team options. With the injury-prone Brian Allen not a lock to keep his snapping gig, Shelton looms as a backstop. PFF did rank Shelton 30th among centers last season. His profile points to a swing gig, but with Allen struggling to stay healthy, Shelton seeing several starts would not surprise.

With Logan Bruss back from his ACL and MCL tears and second-rounder Steve Avila penciled in as a starter, the Rams are in better shape compared to the blocker infirmary that formed last season.

Notable losses:

Nine regular starters, the team’s season-ending QB1 and both its specialists are no longer in the picture. In their place: mostly rookies. Edwards, Gaines, Scott, Rapp, Wolford and Long played out their rookie contracts. The Rams have let role players walk following the expiration of their rookie deals in the past. But this offseason brought a different goal compared to when the likes of Cory Littleton, Austin Corbett, Gerald Everett or Darious Williams were made expendable to afford higher-priced talent. Stafford, Donald and Kupp keep the stars-and-scrubs blueprint alive, but the Rams said goodbye to more core performers than usual.

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5 Key Stories: 7/2/23 – 7/9/23

July 9th, 2023 at 4:26pm CST by Adam La Rose

The NFL offseason continues to roll along, and a few notable developments regarding the top storylines around the league have taken place. Here’s a quick recap from the past week:

  • Dolphins, Others Eyeing Cook: The Dolphins still appear to be in pole position to sign free agent running back Dalvin Cook, and mutual interest exists for a deal to be finalized. However, the four-time Pro Bowler is not prepared to sign the Miami offer which is currently on the table. That could open the door to other suitors making a push for the former Viking, something the Jets and Patriots have explored. Cook is in no hurry to make a decision on his next destination, one which he has said will ideally involve a continuation of his role as a full-time starter. Training camp will likely be the point during which his intentions become clearer, but Miami has work to do to help a homecoming take shape for Cook while fighting off their division rivals in the process.
  • Barkley Extension Still Possible For Giants? Three franchise-tagged running backs are approaching the deadline to sign a long-term deal. One of those – Saquon Barkley – could find himself inking a multi-year contract with the Giants soon, though. There is optimism that this situation will avoid seeing the 26-year-old play on the $10.1MM tag in 2023. Barkley was a top priority for New York at one point, but their lucrative extension for quarterback Daniel Jones has left him short on leverage throughout the offseason. The former No. 2 pick earned another Pro Bowl nod while helping lead the team to the second round of the postseason last year, but his injury concerns and the positional value of RBs as a whole have led to frustrating moments during negotiations from Barkley’s perspective. He and the Giants have until July 17 to work out an extension.
  • Commanders Sale Vote Remains On Track: A number of concerns have been raised regarding the Josh Harris bid to purchase the Commanders, but they appear to have been resolved. Harris’ agreement with outgoing owner Dan Snyder is scheduled to be voted on by the league on July 20, and that process is expected to produce unanimous ratification of the sale. Issues related to financing and the number of investors in Harris’ bid have been worked on since the $6.05 billion exclusive agreement was finalized, but the scheduling of a July vote illustrates the degree to which the NFL is satisfied with the deal as it stands. For the second straight offseason, then, the summer should see a special league meeting take place to approve a record-breaking franchise purchase.
  • Willis On Titans’ Roster Bubble? The Titans drafted a quarterback for the second consecutive year in 2023, adding Will Levis as their signal-caller of the future. That decision, in part, has left Malik Willis in danger of failing to make Tennessee’s roster out of training camp. The 2022 third-rounder was seen as a long-term project coming out of college, but his athletic upside was seen as a factor which could at least earn him a long look as a backup. The presence of Levis gives the team a succession plan to veteran Ryan Tannehill, however, and they could elect to only carry those two passers on the 53-man roster during the season. Needless to say, training camp and the preseason will go a long way in determining Willis’ future with the Titans.
  • Ingram Headlines Veteran Retirements: A number of accomplished NFLers announced that they are handing up their cleats in recent days, including running back Mark Ingram. The 33-year-old will try his hand at broadcasting with Fox Sports, putting an end to a 12-year playing career spent with the Saints, Ravens and Texans. Ingram leaves as New Orleans’ all-time rushing leader and a three-time Pro Bowler, and he will begin the next chapter of his football career rather than searching for a depth role as a player this summer. In addition, punter Kevin Huber (the all-time games played leader for the Bengals) as well as ex-Commanders center Chase Roullier have announced their respective retirements.

Extension Candidate: Justin Herbert

July 8th, 2023 at 10:53pm CST by Ely Allen

Now that the league’s most controversial quarterback extension discussion has come to an end, it’s time to move on to what may be the second-most controversial. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has shown some impressive regular season success in Los Angeles, but without results in the postseason, does he deserve to earn what some of his colleagues are making?

The 2020 quarterback class recently became eligible to sign their second NFL contracts. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, in a slightly different situation with no fifth-year option due to being drafted in the second round, broke the mold before heading into the final year of his rookie contract, signing an extension that gave him the highest annual average contract value in the NFL, a record that would be broken weeks later by Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson.

The Packers decided to get ahead of the pack, as well, signing inexperienced quarterback Jordan Love to an extension of his four-year rookie deal that will keep him under contract through this season and the next. Aside from that, the remaining first-round quarterbacks from the 2020 NFL Draft are playing it patient. The Bengals and quarterback Joe Burrow seem to be in a bit of a holding pattern, watching Herbert and the Chargers. The Dolphins also seem to be sitting pat on a new deal for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Injury issues, namely frequent concussions, have Miami playing it slow, as Tagovailoa’s future appears uncertain to say the least.

That brings us to Herbert. The 2020 class’s Offensive Rookie of the Year, Herbert has been a statistical phenom in Los Angeles. Through his first three seasons, Herbert has passed for 14,089 yards, more than any other player in NFL history through their first three years. He followed up his ORoY campaign with a Pro Bowl sophomore season. He averages just over 31 passing touchdowns per year to just over 11 interceptions. Despite throwing for the fewest touchdowns of his career last season, he finally saw his team’s success result in a postseason appearance. That paradox serves as a microcosm of the biggest issue currently surrounding his legacy: what good are statistics if they don’t lead to team success?

With Herbert behind center, the Chargers are 25-24. They have floated just above .500 since he took his place atop the depth chart. In his lone postseason contest, the Chargers’ defense consistently put Herbert and the offense in positions to succeed, leading to a 27-0 lead over Jacksonville to begin the game. As the Jaguars mounted their comeback, though, Herbert and the offense struggled generate much scoring as the team only managed three second-half points. That loss ultimately puts his record as a starter at 25-25, including the postseason.

The blame doesn’t fall solely on Herbert’s shoulders, of course. A middling-to-subpar defense in the past three years has made Herbert’s job that much harder. Injuries to leading offensive players like running back Austin Ekeler and wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have put him in tough situations from time to time, as well. Still, quarterbacks like Jackson and Hurts have made winning without stats look easy, while Hurts and Burrow have found enough postseason success to each have a Super Bowl loss on their records. Herbert’s statistical success should well reward him and set him on track for a top contract, but his lack of winning success could lessen his price tag a bit.

Veteran general manager Tom Telesco has been here before with Philip Rivers. As a student of Bill Polian with the 2000’s Colts, Telesco had a front row seat to how Indianapolis paid Peyton Manning while still fielding a strong team around him. Seeing the success that that resulted in, Telesco will likely be aiming for a more team-friendly deal when trying to extend Herbert.

“At least in our situation, I don’t think I need to have that talk with our quarterback. I think he’s fully aware, has really good self-awareness on how much money he is going to make, how it affects the team,” Telesco said. “But like most agents will tell you, like, it’s my job to figure out how to make sure that the player gets the value that he deserves and we build a team around him.”

With that in mind, what might a deal for Herbert look like? This is a tough one. As the price tag for quarterbacks continues to climb, Herbert is expected to make over $50MM per year. The statistical success backs that assertion, and the development of the deals of Hurts and Jackson make that harder to deny. Yes, Mahomes and Allen aimed for longer deals (slightly for Allen, extremely for Mahomes), that take a bit of burden off the team, but those deals came in 2020 for Mahomes and 2021 for Allen. It’s hard to imagine that both of those deals would still be under $50MM per year in 2023.

If Herbert and Telesco are on the same page about a team-friendly deal, it’s going to be based off of length. Herbert may end up looking at a six- to eight-year deal. With the added years to the contract, he may agree to take a bit less than the five-year deals Hurts and Jackson signed. I could see an eight-year, $400MM deal with a $50MM AAV or maybe a six-year, $306MM deal with a $51MM AAV. If the team waits longer to make the deal, they not only risk further inflation to contract prices, they also risk Herbert driving up the price tag with some postseason success.

Telesco has his work cut out for him. The team clearly wants to commit to Herbert long-term. With seven players all set to make over $10MM next year, the team’s payroll is getting top-heavy. He’ll have to work some Colts-Manning magic in order to give Herbert the long-term deal he deserves while not totally handicapping the team’s ability to stack top-end talent around him.

PFR Originals: Pack, Herbert, Tags, Dugger

July 8th, 2023 at 9:56pm CST by Adam La Rose

Here’s a look at back at PFR’s most recent originals:

  • The Offseason In Review series continued with a look at the Packers. Sam Robinson broke down the player movement which took place in Green Bay, highlighted by the franchise’s second consecutive decision to trade a future Hall of Fame quarterback to the Jets. How the Packers are able to transition from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love under center will play a crucial role in their ability to return to the postseason now and into the future.
  • A few quarterback mega-deals have already been worked out this offseason, and another could soon be coming to Justin Herbert. Ely Allen broke down the Chargers pivot’s candidacy for a monster extension after three seasons in Los Angeles. That stretch has included an Offensive Rookie of the Year award, a Pro Bowl nod and a postseason appearance in successive years, though Herbert is generally viewed as being a notch below the likes of Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. As is the case with the latter, talks for a new deal will continue through the summer.
  • Four players are currently set to play on the franchise tag, and they have until July 17 to work out a new contract. Sam detailed the situations of running backs Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard, along with tight end Evan Engram. The RB market has not been a fruitful one in 2023, so the Giants and Raiders have plenty of leverage during negotiations, which, should they not yield an agreement, will see their backs and Pollard earn $10.1MM. The latter has signed his one-year tender, but will any of the others do the same?
  • The Patriots have a few interesting financial decisions to make with recent draftees, including Kyle Dugger. The safety may have played his way into a signficant raise, as detailed by Ben Levine. New England used a second-round pick on the Lenoir-Rhyne product in 2020, and it has yielded notable production over the past two years in particular. Dugger could become the first Patriot selected in the first or second round to land an extension in quite some time, though the team is not renowned for spending big on internal or external players when the time comes for large contract commitments.
  • Five new head coaches are in place for the 2023 campaign, half the total from last year. Breaking down where the league’s skippers sit with respect to tenure, Sam looked back at the searches conducted by teams who moved in a new direction and some of the other top storylines which have circulated in recent months. Bill Belichick still tops the list of longest-running coaches in their current position, but the Patriots’ post-Tom Brady performances and his seemingly strained relationship with owner Robert Kraft have led to questions about how much longer he will remain in New England.
  • Plenty of attention will be on the Raiders and Jacobs in advance of the franchise tag deadline, but contract disputes aren’t new for the two parties. In Ben’s latest contribution to the This Day In Transactions History Series, he recalled the tension which surrounded the issue of Jacobs’ signing bonus being paid out early. The first-rounder seemed a threat to hold out during training camp, but he ultimately inked his rookie deal. His play since doing so has put him in line for a step up in compensation, but plenty of progress will need to be made soon on current talks for that to take place.
  • Following up on his breakdown of the league’s longest-tenured head coaches, Sam did the same with general managers. Only two new GMs – Ran Carthon and Monti Ossenfort – have been installed by the Titans and Cardinals, respectively, this offseason. The latter in particular has embarked on a rebuilding effort, while many others are in position to continue their Super Bowl pursuits. The recent extension given to Brandon Beane by the Bills will allow him to carry on with his work in that regard. Changes made at other levels of NFL front offices will no doubt lead to another intriguing hiring cycle in 2024.
  • Most teams know roughly where they stand with respect to cap space heading into this season, but next year offers an interesting peak at the decisions which will need to be made. Ben examined how things currently shape up regarding 2024 cap space, a list which features the Texans and Bears in first and third, respectively. Both teams have plenty of young, cost-controlled assets in place and will be able to be major players on the open market when free agency begins. By that point, 11 teams will have needed to carve out space simply to be cap compliant, let along set themselves up for notable additions. A number of key moves will no doubt be informed by the financial circumstances teams know are around the corner.

2024 Salary Cap Projections For All 32 Teams

July 8th, 2023 at 10:40am CST by Ben Levine

With most of the NFL’s cap space having dried up and most of the league’s top free agents having inked new contracts, many front offices will begin focusing on extensions for impending free agent veterans and players who are about to conclude their rookie contracts.

Naturally, part of these extension efforts will be focused on simply retaining players. However, front offices will also use these extension opportunities to help clean their books for future offseasons. With that said, we’ve compiled the current 2024 cap space outlooks for all 32 NFL teams (h/t to Spotrac.com):

  1. Houston Texans: $87.77MM
  2. New England Patriots: $85.43MM
  3. Chicago Bears: $78.01MM
  4. Washington Commanders: $67.65MM
  5. Tennessee Titans: $64.85MM
  6. Indianapolis Colts: $62.93MM
  7. Detroit Lions: $49.21MM
  8. Arizona Cardinals: $45.80MM
  9. Cincinnati Bengals: $44.43MM
  10. New York Giants: $44.36MM
  11. Carolina Panthers: $35.95MM
  12. Kansas City Chiefs: $35.66MM
  13. Minnesota Vikings: $32.45MM
  14. Las Vegas Raiders: $28.64MM
  15. Atlanta Falcons: $23.04MM
  16. Los Angeles Rams: $21.85MM
  17. Jacksonville Jaguars: $5.14MM
  18. Philadelphia Eagles: $5.10MM
  19. Seattle Seahawks: $5.01MM
  20. New York Jets: $346K
  21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: $216K
  22. Green Bay Packers: $-2.25MM
  23. Baltimore Ravens: $-5.56MM
  24. Pittsburgh Steelers: $-6.66M
  25. Dallas Cowboys: $-6.67MM
  26. San Francisco 49ers: $-31.20MM
  27. Denver Broncos: $-37.89MM
  28. Buffalo Bills: $-46.20MM
  29. Miami Dolphins: $-51.46MM
  30. New Orleans Saints: $-80.98MM
  31. Los Angeles Chargers: $-83.60MM
  32. Cleveland Browns: $-85.08MM

The Texans are in the midst of a rebuild, so it’s not a huge surprise that they sit atop the list of projected 2024 cap space. The organization currently has only three players projected to have cap hits north of $10MM in 2024 (Laremy Tunsil, Shaq Mason, and Maliek Collins). The Texans could use the 2024 offseason as an opportunity to make the team more competitive, but the team’s hopes of eventually becoming a contender will depend on their draft picks, including a pair of first-round picks in next year’s draft.

After the Patriots went on an uncharacteristic spending spree during the 2021 offseason, things have mostly been quiet over the past two years. Many of those big-money deals from 2021 are set to come off the books in 2024, providing the Patriots with an opportunity to load up during the fourth year of Mac Jones‘ rookie contract. Some of that cap space will surely go to extensions, including safety Kyle Dugger (as we explored the other day).

There are 11 teams that, as currently slated, wouldn’t be cap compliant heading into the 2024 regular season. Those teams will eventually clear up the necessary amount of breathing room, but that will be easier said than done for some organizations. The Browns have six players who are projected to have cap hits north of $18MM in 2024 (Deshaun Watson, Myles Garrett, Amari Cooper, Denzel Ward, Joel Bitonio, and David Njoku), and while reworking some of those pacts will clear up some space, it won’t completely solve Cleveland’s cap predicament.

The Chargers are another interesting team to watch, especially with Justin Herbert likely commanding a lucrative new contract. Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams are projected to count for 59 percent of the team’s 2024 cap, meaning the front office will surely have to make some tough decisions as they look to navigate the 2024 offseason.

Looking Into The Four Remaining Franchise Tag Situations

July 6th, 2023 at 10:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

Less than two weeks remain until this year’s franchise tag extension deadline. Following spring extensions for Lamar Jackson and Daron Payne, four franchise-tagged players remain. Three of those (Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, Josh Jacobs) have not signed their respective tenders. Cowboys running back Tony Pollard has, guaranteeing his 2023 salary.

If no extension agreements are finalized before 3pm CT on July 17, these players will be tied to the tag this season. For players who remain on the tag after that date, no long-term negotiations are permitted until season’s end. With one position dominating the tag landscape this year, here is how the four situations look entering crunch time:

Saquon Barkley, Giants; tag price: $10.1MM

Easily the negotiation that has brought the most twists and turns, Barkley has been in off-and-on talks with the Giants since November. The Giants’ Joe Schoen–Brian Daboll regime inherited Barkley, but they have extended two other Dave Gettleman-era draftees (Daniel Jones, Dexter Lawrence) this offseason. But the team’s most popular player finds himself is battling another leaguewide devaluation of the running back position. As Barkley turned down two offers with AAVs north of $12MM — one of those being higher than $13MM per year — the Giants pulled their top proposal off the table after their March extension-tag sequence involving Jones and Barkley.

Barkley, 26, took issue with being characterized as greedy, citing Giants leaks that did not reveal the full truth about the offers he declined. Insufficient guarantees hover at the root of Barkley’s gripes. With the Giants having the option of re-tagging Barkley for barely $12MM in 2023, it is understandable the two-time Pro Bowler would seek a guarantee north of $22MM per year — to cover both tags.

Only two veteran backs (Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry) are tied to deals including more than $20MM fully guaranteed. While McCaffrey encountered injuries on his second contract, the 1,000-1,000 performer did not run into Barkley’s rookie-deal health issues. Those could certainly be giving Giants brass pause regarding guarantees.

These talks have included rumblings of Barkley skipping training camp — if unsigned by July 17 — and a (likely idle) threat of following Le’Veon Bell‘s 2018 path of sitting out the season in protest. The Giants are believed to be OK with Barkley playing on the tag, but ownership remains high on the former No. 2 overall pick. That might be driving the recent optimism in these talks. The skill-position-deficient Giants relied on Barkley (1,650 scrimmage yards) last season, and while they have let two players (Jason Pierre-Paul, Leonard Williams) play on the tag, the team has never not extended a player whom it tagged. (Both D-linemen signed extensions after being tagged again.)

Evan Engram, Jaguars; tag price: $11.35MM

Barkley’s former Giants teammate broke through for a Jaguars single-season tight end record last season, posting 766 receiving yards to boost Trevor Lawrence‘s development. The Jaguars added Calvin Ridley but cuffed Engram as well. Both the Jags and the seventh-year tight end want to strike a deal, but the most recent rumor coming out of these talks placed the sides as far apart on terms.

Dating back to their Julius Thomas miss, the Jaguars have struggled to staff this position. Engram provided a win for GM Trent Baalke, whose first free agency class as lead Jags decision-maker made significant contributions. But Engram also has a history of inconsistency, having never put it together for an extended stretch as a Giant. Engram does have an original-ballot Pro Bowl nod on his resume (2020) and saw the Giants pick up his fifth-year option prior to that performance. His 2021 provided a letdown, but the Giants — with Jones going down with a neck injury that November — were not exactly in position to see any pass catcher thrive at that point.

Guarantees are undoubtedly an issue here. A 2024 Engram tag would cost $13.62MM, likely giving the 28-year-old pass catcher a guarantee target of $25MM. Only three veteran tight ends (Mark Andrews, George Kittle, Hunter Henry) have secured that at signing, but with those deals taking place in 2020 or ’21, Engram can make a case — on a $224.8MM salary cap — he deserves such security as well. The tight end market appears out of step with its top cogs’ contributions, with Travis Kelce still tied to a $14.3MM-per-year deal. That offers an interesting complication in these Engram discussions as well.

Josh Jacobs, Raiders; tag price: $10.1MM

A threat to miss game checks makes more sense from Barkley, who has earned nearly $40MM in five seasons. Jacobs following suit is less logical, as he has made $11.9MM in four NFL years. The Raiders passed on Jacobs’ fifth-year option, and he proceeded to become the team’s first rushing champion since Marcus Allen did so in a 1985 MVP season. Jacobs, 25, zoomed onto the tag radar with his 2022 performance, but while the Giants have made multiple offers to Barkley, it is unclear if the Raiders are making a serious push to extend Jacobs. The team is still hopeful, but numbers have proven elusive.

The Alabama product has offered cryptic assessments of his negotiations, hinting at making a stand for the running back position. Seeing as Bell has expressed belated regret for passing on $14MM with his 2018 anti-tag crusade, it would surprise if Barkley or Jacobs stayed away into the season. It might be a negotiating tactic, as RBs are low on leverage these days, but the threat of Jacobs skipping Week 1 has surfaced. With Josh McDaniels in a crucial year — after his first Raiders HC season went south quickly — and the Raiders now employing the league’s most injury-prone quarterback (Jimmy Garoppolo), Jacobs putting regular-season absences on the table is an interesting move.

While Jacobs is still more likely than not to be in uniform in Week 1, the prospect of an injury or regression affecting his 2024 market should be a factor here. Jacobs’ light Crimson Tide workload (251 college carries) worked in his favor, but the Raiders giving him an NFL-most 393 touches last season undercuts that advantage to a degree. Players to log that many touches in a season over the past 10 years (Henry, McCaffrey, Bell, DeMarco Murray) either fared far worse the following year or, in Bell’s case, skipped the next season.

With Jacobs not the same threat out of the backfield McCaffrey, Barkley or Alvin Kamara are, a top-market pact will be hard for the fifth-year vet to secure. With McDaniels previously expressing support for the Jon Gruden-era draftee, will be interesting to see what numbers come out of these talks.

Tony Pollard, Cowboys; tag price: $10.1MM

The Cowboys are certainly unafraid to unholster their franchise tag, having used it in each of the past six years. In addition to keeping Pollard away from free agency, Dallas tagged Dalton Schultz, Dak Prescott and DeMarcus Lawrence in that span. With Prescott and Lawrence being tagged twice and Schultz leaving after his tagged season, the Cowboys have been fine letting players carry tag figures into seasons. Considering Pollard’s is the lowest cap hit among Dallas’ recent tags, the team is likely OK with the $10MM number staying on its books this year.

Pollard, 26, presents perhaps a more interesting case for a mid-2020s ascent compared to the Giants and Raiders backs. He has taken just 510 handoffs as a pro — Barkley sits at 954, Jacobs at 1,072 — and offers pass-game explosiveness that helped lead Dallas to drop Ezekiel Elliott.

The six-year, $90MM Elliott extension did not age well for the Cowboys, who are eating $11MM-plus in dead money over the next two years after the post-June 1 cut designation. But Elliott also accumulated more mileage (868 carries) before signing that extension. Pollard’s rookie-contract usage rate and skillset point to a promising late-20s stretch. Although Elliott’s deal helped spread out his cap hits, the Cowboys are eyeing a shorter-term Pollard pact.

As a former fourth-round pick, Pollard was smart to sign his tender and secure the guaranteed salary. Coming off a season in which he totaled 1,378 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns, the Memphis alum’s arrow is pointing up. The Cowboys can look at the deal the Packers gave dual-threat back Aaron Jones in 2021 (four years, $48MM) as an example of a good contract for a multipurpose back. The organization’s history with re-tagging players should also point to Pollard aiming for $22MM-plus in guarantees, but with no back earning between $7MM and $12MM on average, both Pollard and the team have interesting decisions to make in the coming days. Unlike Schultz’s 2022 tag period, however, updates have been scarce regarding Pollard talks.

Extension Candidate: Kyle Dugger

July 6th, 2023 at 9:55pm CST by Ben Levine

The Patriots haven’t signed a first- or second-round pick to a rookie contract extension since Dont’a Hightower, who was a member of the 2012 draft class. Things may change in 2023, as the Patriots have a 2020 second-round pick who is worthy of a new deal. Kyle Dugger is currently eligible for an extension, and the safety can make a strong case for a new contract in New England.

The defensive back was a surprise pick out of Division II Lenoir-Rhyne, with the Patriots selecting him 37th-overall in 2020. Following an inconsistent rookie campaign that saw him in and out of the starting lineup, Dugger took it to another level over the past two seasons. Between 2021 and 2022, the safety has compiled 120 tackles, seven interceptions, and three defensive touchdowns. The 26-year-old earned his best Pro Football Focus grade in 2022, finishing 11th among 88 qualifying safeties.

The Patriots secondary will be lacking some leadership in 2023 following the retirement of Devin McCourty, and Bill Belichick and co. will surely want to maintain some continuity in their safeties room. Jabrill Peppers and Adrian Phillips provide some solid depth at the position, and the team has reportedly given cornerback Jalen Mills some reps at safety. The organization also used a third-round pick on Sacramento State defensive back Marte Mapu, perhaps some insurance in case the organization loses their starter next offseason.

However, none of those options offer as much upside as Dugger, and while the team doesn’t have a long track record of extending first- or second-round picks, the safety has easily outperformed most of the other players on that list. Of course, this is the Patriots, and we shouldn’t expect the front office to start negotiating against themselves.

Despite his impressive numbers over the past two seasons, Dugger hasn’t established himself among the top tier of safeties. A top-10 contract at the position would put him in line for an average annual value of $14MM. More likely, New England will be looking to get Dugger under contract for a discounted amount; considering his production and the current contracts at the position, a deal starting around $12MM per year could make some sense.

Fortunately for New England, Dugger’s contract status won’t be a distraction for the fourth-year player.

“That’s not on my mind,” Dugger said of his impending free agency (via Chad Graff of The Athletic). “That’s the business part. I’m on the field and trying to handle business on the field and let that be that. But I definitely enjoy playing with this organization.”

Dugger might not even be the only member of the Patriots 2020 draft class to earn an extension. Fellow second-round pick Josh Uche had a breakout season in 2022, finishing with 11.5 sacks and a top-20 edge rusher grade from PFF. The Patriots probably won’t overpay for one good season, and Uche is mostly a part-time player in their system. However, another 10-plus-sack season would put Uche in line for a massive payday next offseason. If the organization believes his 2022 season was for real, it may be in their best interest to extend the linebacker now.

Offensive lineman Michael Onwenu could be another interesting contender for an extension. The 2020 sixth-round pick earned PFWA All-Rookie Team honors as a rookie, struggled during his second season, and then earned a top-four PFF mark among all guards in 2022. The lineman’s inconsistency makes him a risky extension candidate, but New England could look to hedge their bets and sign him to an affordable deal while they have the chance. As Evan Lazar of the team’s website points out, the organization does have a recent history of trying to retain interior linemen, including Shaq Mason‘s extension and Joe Thuney‘s franchise tag.

Part of the reason for the team’s lack of success in a post-Tom Brady era (besides the quarterback’s obvious defection) was the team’s lack of draft hits. The fact that the Patriots have three worthy extension candidates from their 2020 draft class shows that the organization is starting to rebound in their prospect evaluations.

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