PFR Originals - Pro Football Rumors

This Date In Transactions History: Pats Sign Player To Unprecedented Futures Deal

February 1st, 2020 at 11:00am CST by Ben Levine

When we add entries to the “This Date in Transactions” series, we generally don’t focus on players without an NFL appearance, especially when said transaction is a usually-anonymous futures deal. However, on this date in 2013, one of the more unusual futures contract was signed.

On February 1st, 2013, the New England Patriots officially signed Armond Armstead to a futures contract. The defensive tackle had once been a top prospect at USC, but the school’s medical staff refused to clear him for the 2011 campaign after learning of a major heart issue (Armstead would later sue the school, saying the team doctors’ use of painkillers contributed to the heart issue and ultimately compromised his earning potential). With the lineman being forced to miss his senior season, he ended up going undrafted in the 2012 Draft.

Armstead later took his talents to the CFL, where he earned an All-Star nod after compiling 43 tackles and six sacks en route to a Grey Cup Championship. Following his standout campaign, the lineman requested (and was granted) his released so he could pursue an NFL gig.

It didn’t take long for him to find his next deal, as he inked a futures deal with the Patriots on February 1st. So what’s so unusual about the contract? Well, let’s first review the standard futures deal. These contracts tie players to a teams’ roster throughout the offseason, and it counts towards the salary cap and 90-man camp roster for the subsequent season. These deals are usually one-year, minimum-salary, non-guaranteed deals. In fact, in 2011, the NFLPA filed a collusion suit against the league claiming that front offices were conspiring to keep these values especially low (among other, more notable salary-cap machinations).

Armstead’s deal was one of the few futures contracts that offered anything of substance, with the total value being practically unprecedented. The team signed the lineman to a three-year futures contract that included $655K in guaranteed money (the deal could have been worth up to $1.48MM). This kind of commitment by the Patriots proved that the organization was high on the prospect and there was probably some competition for his services.

Unfortunately, the deal didn’t end up working out. Armstead required surgery to treat an infection during the 2013 offseason, leading to his placement on the reserve/non-football injury list. He didn’t see the field during his rookie campaign, and he ended up announcing his retirement during the 2014 offseason.

While Armstead’s NFL career didn’t work out, he still has this interest footnote (as well as $655K) to fall back on.

This Date In Transactions History: Chiefs Trade Alex Smith To Redskins

January 30th, 2020 at 10:03am CST by Zachary Links

On this date in 2018, the Chiefs traded Alex Smith to the Redskins in blockbuster move that had wide-ranging implications across the entire NFL. The deal brought the Redskins a proven quarterback who was coming off of, arguably, the best season of his career. For the Chiefs, the trade gave them a 2018 third-round draft pick, a promising young cornerback in Kendall Fuller, and a clear path to elevate Patrick Mahomes to the starting lineup.

Even as Smith led the league in passer rating (104.7) and finished third in adjusted net yards per attempt, the football world was buzzing about the potential of Mahomes. The Chiefs didn’t see much of the youngster in live action, outside of some time in the meaningless 2017 regular season finale, but they saw enough of him on the practice field to know that he was special and that he was ready. Smith, meanwhile, had one year remaining on his deal. The Chiefs opted to turn his salary into draft capital, support for the secondary, and extra cash that they could spend elsewhere.

After Smith set career-highs in completion percentage (67.5), yards (4,042), and touchdowns (26), the Redskins saw him as a fitting replacement for Kirk Cousins, who was on his way out after years of friction and botched extension talks. The acquisition of Smith ruled out any possibility of a reconciliation and officially set Cousins on course for free agency, where he found a fully-guaranteed multi-year deal with the Vikings.

The Chiefs’ side of the swap made total sense – they were parlaying their surplus into extra ammunition. For the Redskins, the deal raised some eyebrows. Even after Smith posted a career-low interception rate of 1%, many doubted that he would be an improvement over Cousins. Keeping Cousins would have been more costly in terms of guaranteed dollars (and would have required a whole lot of fence-mending), but there was plenty of cost that came with Smith – Fuller, valuable draft capital, and the four-year extension given to him the day after the trade. That deal, taking Smith through 2022, gave Smith $23.5MM per year, making him the sixth-highest paid QB in the NFL at the time of signing.

Two years later, it’s hard to get a true read on the Redskins’ end of this blockbuster deal. Smith led the club to a 6-3 start in his first season with the Redskins, but a gruesome leg injury in Week 11 changed everything. The compound and spiral fracture to his tibia and fibula required complicated surgery, and the post-surgery infection that he developed led to 17 more operations. Smith missed all of 2019 and no one knows when, or if, he’ll return to football. For his part, Smith says he still wants to play.

“I still have dreams of getting back to where I was and getting back out there,” Smith said in January. “This has been a crazy ride with a lot of unforeseen turns, but without a doubt, that’s still my goal.”

Smith, now 35, is set to count $21.4MM against the Redskins’ cap this year. No cap savings can be gained by releasing him until 2021.

In Kansas City, Mahomes lit the NFL on fire, leading the league with 50 passing touchdowns against just 12 interceptions. He was unstoppable again in 2019 – even a fairly serious knee injury could only limit him for a few weeks. This week, he’ll lead the Chiefs into the Super Bowl, where they’ll aim for their first championship since 1970.

This Date In Transactions History: Travis Kelce Signs Extension

January 29th, 2020 at 7:54pm CST by Ben Levine

Travis Kelce will check off another career milestone this weekend when he makes his first Super Bowl appearance. Four years ago today, he achieved one of the first major accomplishments, inking a five-year extension with the Chiefs.

Back when the deal was signed in 2016, Kelce was an up-and-comer at the tight end position. The former third-rounder had compiled 850-plus receiving yards and five touchdowns for the second-straight season, and he earned his first Pro Bowl nod. Despite the production, Kelce was still working to endear himself to the organization. Kelce missed his entire rookie season recovering from knee surgery, and coach Andy Reid referred to him as “immature” following an incident during his sophomore campaign.

Still, the organization believed in him enough to give him a market-setting five-year, $46MM extension (with a bit more than $20MM guaranteed). In hindsight, that deal ended up working out brilliantly for the Chiefs. Kelce has evolved into the league’s premier tight end, averaging 92 receptions, 1,182 receiving yards, and 6.75 touchdowns over the past four seasons.

That extension is set to expire following the 2020 season, and assuming Kelce remains relatively healthy, he should earn another lucrative payday. The $46MM deal is still the highest at the position, but the veteran has predictably been surpassed in guaranteed money (where Trey Burton, Jordan Reed, and Zach Ertz top Kelce) and average value (Jimmy Graham is the leader).

Austin Hooper, Hunter Henry, and Eric Ebron are among the players hitting free agency this offseason, so there’s a chance the market could reset. Kelce will surely have his eye on those various deals as he prepared for the 2021 offseason. For now, the tight end is going to prepare for the biggest game of his life, although he may briefly think back to four years ago today when he inked his extension with the Chiefs.

NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Chase Young

January 29th, 2020 at 10:26am CST by Zachary Links

With the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Cincinnati Bengals (will probably) select LSU quarterback Joe Burrow. Not long after that, the draft’s consensus top talent – Ohio State defensive end Chase Young – will be chosen.

It’s a familiar refrain in the NFL Draft, which never unfolds in the order of the “best player available.” Even though Young likely won’t be the top choice this year, he’s arguably commanded more attention in the football world than any other prospect in his class, and for good reason.

Young isn’t just the best edge rusher in 2020 – some say he’s the best pass-rushing prospect in years. Pro Football Focus, which has been grading at the college level since 2014, bestowed historic grades to Josh Allen (Kentucky, 2018), Nick Bosa (Ohio State, 2017), Myles Garrett (Texas A&M, 2015), and other elite prospects – Young topped them all in 2019.

Still, you don’t need advanced metrics to see why Young is such a special talent. Evaluators have been drooling over his potential for years, dating back to his days at high school powerhouse DeMatha Catholic. His presence was felt immediately at Ohio State in 2017 and he followed that up with a ten-sack season as a sophomore in 2018. Last year, Young went ballistic: 17 sacks (the most in the FBS), 21 tackles for a loss, and seven forced fumbles…in a season that was cut short by two games, thanks to a suspension over a loan from the draconian NCAA.

Listed at 6’5″ and 265 pounds, Young seems to check every box. He’s powerful against the run and unfathomably smooth as a pass rusher. At Ohio State, Young was the focus of every opposing offensive line, including some of the nation’s most elite units. Frequently, Young was double-teamed, and that didn’t usually work, save for his December matchup against Michigan in which it felt like they double-teamed him on every snap. Even then, the extra attention on Young meant more opportunities for the rest of the front seven, and Ohio State rolled to a 56-27 blowout.

Even evaluators that have put Young under a microscope haven’t been able to find many flaws. Young may have to get more consistent with his pad level and work on his vision, some say. Those critiques are the football equivalent of seeing a supermodel walk down the street and remarking that her nail polish color is tacky. As far as pass-rushing prospects go, Young is as good as they get.

Despite their glaring need at quarterback and unbridled love for Burrow, the Bengals will consider the local phenom for the top pick. At this stage, we’re expecting the Bengals to take Burrow no matter what, but that won’t affect Young much. The Redskins, at No. 2, probably represent Young’s absolute floor.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Dak Prescott

January 28th, 2020 at 9:29am CST by Zachary Links

With all the talk surrounding Tom Brady‘s impending free agency, it’s almost like you could forget about Dak Prescott‘s scheduled trip to the open market. Almost.

At the start of the season, it seemed like Prescott was right on the cusp of a brand new multi-year deal with the Cowboys. Back in September, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said a new deal was “imminent.” Then, Jones & Co. spent the rest of the year deflecting questions about a potential extension. Now, the pressure is on for the Cowboys to hammer out a mega-deal that will keep Prescott under center for the foreseeable future.

Both sides have ample reason to get something done, but the Cowboys, understandably, have reservations about tying up a ludicrously high percentage of their available dollars in a handful of players. Back in September, the Cowboys offered up a contract that would have paid Prescott an average of $33MM/year. However, Prescott held off during his insanely hot start, and he was probably eyeing Russell Wilson‘s league-leading $35MM/year average.

The Cowboys’ second-half dip cost them a playoff berth and hurt Prescott’s leverage. Through the first seven games of the year, Prescott completed more than 70% of his passes with 12 TDs and seven INTs. On the back nine, Prescott completed just 61.5% of his throws with 18 touchdowns against four interceptions.

Still, there was plenty of blame to go around for the Cowboys’ drop, and much of it fell on Jason Garrett. Prescott, who won’t turn 27 until July, figures to cash in, one way or another. If the Cowboys can’t come to an agreement with Prescott on a long-term deal, they can keep him from free agency via the franchise tag, which is projected to come in at roughly $26.9MM for quarterbacks. The former fourth-round pick would surely prefer the security of a four-year contract, but that’s still a substantial pay bump from the $2.025MM base salary he earned in the final year of his rookie deal.

What will it take for the Cowboys to get a deal done with Prescott? After he finished second in passing yards (4,902) and fourth in passing touchdowns (30, a new career-high), it won’t be cheap. By betting on himself, Prescott has all but assured that he can top Jared Goff‘s four-year, $134MM deal, which averages out to $33.5MM/year. Meanwhile, his camp surely has Goff’s $110MM in guarantees – an NFL record – in the crosshairs.

The stats and comps are only part of the equation as the prospect of multiple franchise tags looms large. Sure, the Cowboys can cuff Prescott for 2020 at ~$27MM, but what about 2021, when the cost would rise another 20% to more than $39MM? (Assuming the franchise tag rules remain in tact after the new CBA.) After that, a third tag would be downright absurd – a 44% jump would cost upwards of $55MM for the 2022 season.

We’ve been fooled before, but all signs still point to a long-term accord between the QB and JJ. If the Cowboys are unwilling to top Wilson’s AAV, it’s possible that the two sides can meet in the middle on a three-year deal, which would allow Prescott to cash in at untold levels when he’s 30 years of age and the league’s revenue climbs even higher. Or, maybe they’ll cave and give Prescott just enough to edge Wilson on a four-year deal and claim victory. In any case, the Cowboys do not want to wait for Patrick Mahomes to land his next deal, which could top $40MM per annum. And, failing all of that, a tag is surely coming.

Prescott, technically speaking, is due for free agency in March, but we’d be shocked if he gets there.

Prospect Profile: Joe Burrow

January 28th, 2020 at 8:26am CST by Zachary Links

The Bengals have roughly three months to figure out who they’ll take with the No. 1 overall pick, but many are convinced that their selection has already been made. Quarterback Joe Burrow, who is coming off of a ridiculous season at LSU, may be a lock for Cincinnati.

Today, Burrow stands as the consensus top QB in this year’s class. But, in the summer, that wasn’t exactly the case. Scouts long drooled over the potential of Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, and Jake Fromm while Burrow seemed to be on the tier below. But, thanks to Tagovailoa’s hip injury and Burrow’s meteoric rise, the landscape shifted drastically.

The former Ohio State backup debuted as LSU’s starter in 2018 but threw for only 2,894 yards and 16 touchdown passes as a junior. Then, in 2019, Tigers passing-game coordinator (and new Panthers OC) Joe Brady helped him rise to a whole ‘nother level. Burrow threw for 5,671 yards, 60 touchdowns (!), and lobbed just six interceptions en route to a National Championship and the Heisman trophy.

The numbers have generated headlines, but execs are equally impressed by Burrow’s intangibles.

“Burrow just has it. You can’t coach it; you can’t develop it. Some guys just have it,” one longtime QB coach told Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller in November. “Baker Mayfield has it. Gardner Minshew has it. The difference is that Burrow has better size than both and a much better arm than Minshew.”

There are few knocks on Burrow, but no prospect is perfect. Among the (minor) concerns – Burrow’s limited track record of excellence. A highly-touted prospect out of high school, Burrow found himself mostly buried behind J.T. Barrett and Dwayne Haskins at Ohio State. It wasn’t until 2018 that he got his first crack at starting with LSU, and his numbers didn’t exactly jump off of the page. Then, in 2019, he was unstoppable. Someone playing devil’s advocate with Burrow would probably start here – Burrow’s game tape is excellent, but most of it comes from one season of work.

There’s also the matter of Burrow’s arm strength – he can’t air it out like Herbert and he doesn’t have a Kyle Boller fastball in his arsenal. Still, execs everywhere say that Burrow has the overall makeup to offset those limitations.

The Bengals will do their due diligence on every top prospect in this year’s crop, and they may even listen on trade inquiries, but all signs are pointing to Burrow as the top pick in April.

PFR Glossary: Rooney Rule

January 27th, 2020 at 1:30pm CST by Zachary Links

This offseason, five NFL teams hired new head coaches. New Redskins head coach Ron Rivera was the only non-white coach to fill one of those vacancies, which drew criticism from some, including Steelers owner Art Rooney II.

“I think where we are right now, is not where we want to be, not where we need to be,” Rooney said recently. “We need to take a step back and look at what’s happening with our hiring processes.”

“As it appears right now, there just weren’t very many minorities in the process at all this year. And I’m not sure why that is,” Rooney continued. “It doesn’t need to be that way. We have about one-third of the coaches in the National Football League are from the minority communities. That’s really not a bad pipeline. And so, the question is, why aren’t more of those people getting interviews? Why aren’t more of those people advancing through the process?”

Established in 2003, the Rooney Rule stipulates that teams must interview at least one minority candidate for head coaching positions. Named after former Steelers owner Dan Rooney, the rule is in place to make sure that candidates of color have a fair shake at climbing the ranks.

When the Rooney Rule was introduced, there were historically very few non-white head coaches in the NFL. Fritz Pollard became the first black head coach in NFL history in the 1920s and the league did not see another minority head coach until 1979 when the Raiders hired Tom Flores.

Since the advent of the Rooney Rule, dozens of qualified minority candidates have been given opportunities to showcase themselves for head coaching positions. However, it’s difficult to say whether that has directly led to a greater number of minority hires. Teams have been accused of interviewing minority candidates simply to check the box.

This was a common complaint against the Raiders a couple of years ago when they reportedly agreed to hire Jon Gruden on Christmas Eve, before they interviewed Oakland tight ends coach Bobby Johnson and USC offensive coordinator Tee Martin for the role in January. Ditto for some of this year’s searches, including the Cowboys. Some say the Cowboys weren’t giving serious consideration to former Bengals coach Marvin Lewis before they hired ex-Packers coach Mike McCarthy. The Fritz Pollard Alliance, which works with the NFL to monitor minority hiring practices, has vowed to push for changes to the rule.

In recent years, the rule has been extended to general manager vacancies. In December 2016, the NFL agreed to informally apply the rule to offensive and defensive coordinator positions, though there are no penalties for noncompliance. If a team is found to have broken the Rooney Rule in a head coaching search, the club may be faced with a substantial fine and/or a forfeiture of draft picks. In the coming months, the Rooney Rule could be expanded even further.

Poll: Will Le’Veon Bell Return To The Jets?

January 27th, 2020 at 11:05am CST by Zachary Links

Last year, Jets GM Mike Maccagnan signed Le’Veon Bell to a four-year, $52.5MM deal. Weeks later, Maccagnan was fired in a long-expected, yet ill-timed, move. Apparently, new head coach Adam Gase and GM Joe Douglas were not wild about Maccagnan’s moves, including the major expenditure for Bell.

Unfortunately for Gase and Douglas, escaping Bell’s deal won’t be easy. The running back is slated to count for a $15.5MM cap figure in 2020 with similar numbers in 2021 and 2022. Shedding Bell this offseason would leave the Jets with $19MM in dead money and zero cap savings. The Jets’ best opportunity to dump Bell would come before the 2021 season, when they could save $9.5MM against $4MM in dead money.

Meanwhile, Bell underperformed in 2019 and reportedly clashed with team brass. He averaged just 3.2 yards per carry and his 66 catches for 461 yards out of the backfield weren’t nearly enough to offset that lack of efficiency.

Bell claimed multiple teams inquired about him before the October trade deadline. Douglas hinted that he would listen on calls after the season, though he later walked those comments back, saying that Bell is a valued member of the team.

Releasing Bell outright would result in $19MM in dead money. A trade would be less damaging – the Jets would absorb just $6MM in dead money while freeing up $9.5MM in cap room. Then again, the team taking on Bell would have to commit to his guaranteed $13MM for 2020, and that’s a tough sell. To offset that, the Jets would likely have to convert a portion of his 2020 pay into a signing bonus, which would add to the dead money total.

With all of that in mind, do you expect Bell to be in a Jets uniform in 2020? Cast your vote below (link for app users) and back up your choice in the comments section.

Will Le’Veon Bell Return To The Jets?

Yes 62.01% (1,239 votes)

No 37.99% (759 votes)

Total Votes: 1,998

Poll: Will Patrick Mahomes Get $40MM/Year?

January 21st, 2020 at 3:32pm CST by Zachary Links

Patrick Mahomes is Super Bowl bound. He’s also in line for a monumental payday.

Last year, at the age of 23-and-a-third, Mahomes became the league’s youngest MVP since Dan Marino won the award in 1984. He didn’t disappoint in his encore, either. The grizzled 24-year-old threw for for 4,031 yards with 26 touchdowns against just five interceptions in 2019. He also threw in some dazzling running plays, for good measure, resulting in two more scores and 15 first downs.

His incomparable skillset and early accomplishments point to a historic contract. The NFL’s all-time average annual value (AAV) record is made to be broken and routinely shattered each year, sometimes by quarterbacks who are not considered to be among the league’s very best. Mahomes’ case is decidedly different – he’s simply from another planet, and some execs think he’ll cross the $40MM/year threshold.

“I think he’s gonna get $40MM [per year], either over four or five years,” one NFC personnel evaluator told ESPN.com’s Jeremy Fowler.

Another NFC exec with negotiating experience mostly echoed that sentiment:”If Russell Wilson is at $35MM, then probably $37.5MM.”

Wilson’s deal with the Seahawks calls for $140MM across four years. Rams QB Jared Goff isn’t far behind with $134MM over the same stretch, with a whopping $110MM in guaranteed cash. Carson Wentz fell just shy with his four-year, $128MM Eagles extension. There will be new additions to this tier – including Cowboys QB Dak Prescott – but Mahomes is poised to top Prescott’s deal (whenever that happens) and set a watermark that won’t be approached for a while.

Mahomes’ rookie deal runs through 2020 and the Chiefs hold his fifth-year option to take him through 2021. Still, league officials say time is of the essence for KC.

“If I were [the Chiefs], I would be as proactive as humanly possible,” one exec told Fowler. “If Jared Goff can get no offset language in his entire contract after three years in the league, then this specific player has all the leverage. I think $40MM would be Mahomes selling himself short.”

Will Mahomes net $40MM per year, or more, on his next deal? Cast your vote below (link for app users) and back up your choice in the comment section.

Will Patrick Mahomes Get $40MM (or more) Per Year?

Yes 74.28% (1,568 votes)

No 25.72% (543 votes)

Total Votes: 2,111

Poll: Which NFL Team Made The Best Hire?

January 14th, 2020 at 8:48am CST by Zachary Links

This year’s head coaching cycle came and went in a flash. The Redskins, Cowboys, Panthers, and Giants moved quickly to find their new sideline leaders and the Browns weren’t far behind as they filled their vacancy on January 11th.

Now that the dust has settled, we want your take on the best hire of the bunch:

Ron Rivera, Redskins: The Panthers axed Rivera in early December, just before he could finish his ninth season at the helm. Quickly, the Redskins identified him as their top target to take over for interim head coach Bill Callahan, who had been holding down the fort since Jay Gruden‘s midseason dismissal. The Panthers struggled in 2019 without one-time MVP Cam Newton under center, but Rivera comes to D.C. with an impressive resume that includes four playoff appearances, three NFC South titles, and a Super Bowl appearance. The Redskins, meanwhile, haven’t been to the big game since their Super Bowl XXVI victory over the Bills following the 1991 season. Or, to put it another way – more than five years before quarterback Dwayne Haskins was born.

Mike McCarthy, Cowboys: During the season, many speculated that the Cowboys would make a splash by luring former Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer out of retirement. Instead, once the Cowboys finally fired Jason Garrett, they restricted their search to experienced NFL head coaches. Only two candidates formally interviewed for the job and McCarthy got the nod over longtime Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis. McCarthy clashed with Aaron Rodgers down the stretch in Green Bay, but he’s also credited with grooming him into one of the league’s top quarterbacks. The Cowboys are hopeful that McCarthy can have a similar impact on Dak Prescott’s development.

Matt Rhule, Panthers: The Panthers backed up a Brinks truck to hire former Baylor head coach Matt Rhule. Rhule is credited with turning around the Baylor program and, before that, the Temple program. Despite his lack of pro experience, teams have been eyeing him for the last couple of years. He was also hot during the last cycle, but a would-be deal with the Jets was nixed when Gang Green insisted on picking his assistants for him. This time around, Rhule had all the leverage he needed to get full control over his staff, and a lucrative contract that could pay him anywhere between $60 and $70MM.

Joe Judge, Giants: The Giants were infatuated with Rhule, but they were only willing to go so far. They were also blown away by Judge, who previously served as the Patriots’ special teams coach. Judge didn’t have the household name value of other candidates, but the Giants see him as someone who can handle the New York press and get the most out of young QB Daniel Jones.

Kevin Stefanski, Browns: Stefanski joined the Vikings in 2006 and climbed the ladder to become the team’s offensive coordinator midway through the 2018 season. In 2019, Stefanski’s first full season at the helm, the Vikings ranked as a top-10 offense in points while the the trio of Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison, and Mike Boone cracked the top six in rushing yards and touchdowns. Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins turned in one of his best seasons yet. The Browns have one of the game’s most promising young QBs in Baker Mayfield and a talented backfield group, so they saw Stefanski as a perfect fit, even though the Vikings came up short in the round.

Cast your vote below (link for app users) and back up your choice in the comments.

Who Was The Best HC Hire?

Ron Rivera, Redskins 36.44% (2,048 votes)

Mike McCarthy, Cowboys 33.74% (1,896 votes)

Kevin Stefanski, Browns 10.27% (577 votes)

Matt Rhule, Panthers 10.12% (569 votes)

Joe Judge, Giants 9.43% (530 votes)

Total Votes: 5,620

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