Extension Candidate: Andy Dalton
When the Bengals passed on Teddy Bridgewater with the No. 24 pick in last month’s draft, and subsequently waited until the fifth round before drafting a signal-caller (Alabama’s A.J. McCarron), they seemed to send a strong message: Andy Dalton is Cincinnati’s quarterback for the foreseeable future.
Dalton, selected in the second round of the 2011 draft, has achieved immediate success in the Queen City, leading the Bengals to a 30-18 record and three playoff appearances (0-3 record) during his first three seasons in the league, averaging nearly 3,800 yards passing, 27 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in that span. Advanced metrics rate Dalton as average — Football Outsiders ranked Dalton as the 17th-best QB by DYAR in 2014, while Pro Football Focus (subscription required) graded him as 16th-best. The PFF rating, however, illustrates Dalton’s maddening inconsistency — in 2014, he finished three weeks with a +5.0 or better grade, while five other weeks saw him earn a -3.0 or worse mark.
The Bengals, for their part, have a recent history of being willing to pay for performance, as evidenced by extensions for Andrew Whitworth, Carlos Dunlap, and Leon Hall. In March, team owner Mike Brown spoke about Dalton’s situation, saying “If it turns out it can’t be made to work we will do something elsewhere. I don’t think we plan to go another year the way we did this year.” Whether that means Cincinnati would be willing to slap the franchise tag on Dalton in 2015 is unclear, but Brown is well aware that the free agent market for quarterbacks is more often than not barren, meaning Dalton is the likely the team’s best, and perhaps only, answer at the position.
Cincinnati also has other premier players whom they would like to like to retain — receiver A.J. Green, whose 2015 option was exercised, and linebacker Vontaze Burfict, with whom the Bengals are discussing an extension. While the team currently has over $24MM in cap space, new contracts for Green, Burfict, and Dalton could stretch the Bengals’ budget.
In looking for a precedent, the Bengals could look at recent extensions given to fellow quarterbacks Tony Romo and Jay Cutler. Romo signed a seven-year, $108MM deal with the Cowboys in March 2013, which contained $55MM guaranteed. While Romo has outperformed Dalton since the latter entered the league in 2011, he is eight years older than the Bengals QB. Cutler agreed to a seven-year, $126.7MM contract in January 2014, with $54MM in guarantees. Cutler and Dalton have comparable statistics, though Dalton has been healthier and is five years younger.
More potential quarterback extensions are seemingly on the horizon, each of which could affect Dalton’s value. Alex Smith is reportedly asking for $18MM per season, Colin Kaepernick could aim for a $20MM AAV, and a Cam Newton contract could surpass each of those potential deals.
With the Bengals taking a pass on adding legitimate competition for Dalton, an extension seems to be the likeliest of outcomes. While the Bengals probably aren’t willing to give Dalton a $20MM AAV, I could see them examining Dalton’s regular-season success, the randomness of playoff losses, and the lack of enticing alternatives, and handing Dalton a contract in line with what Cutler received: $18-19MM per season, with $50-60MM in guarantees. Such a deal, as opposed to a 2015 franchise tag, would probably give the Bengals the room to negotiate contracts for Green and Burfict, keeping intact a core that could keep Cincinnati competitive for years to come.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
AFC Notes: Vilma, Gronkowski, Manziel, Bills
Joe Philbin and Dennis Allen are among several coaches who have a lot riding on the 2014 season, writes Lorenzo Reyes of USA Today. While the “hot seat” label may be premature, the Dolphins would surely like to see improvement both off-the-field (in the wake of the Jonathan Martin scandal) and on it, with quarterback Ryan Tannehill potentially taking another step forward. The Raiders, meanwhile, used their ample cap space to infuse their roster with veterans, and the team’s leadership obviously hopes Allen can improve upon 2013’s 4-12 record.
More from around the AFC:
- Free agent linebacker Jonathan Vilma reached out to the Dolphins, but Miami was not interested in adding the veteran, reports Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. Vilma played only 12 snaps in 2013 following a knee injury.
- Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski is reportedly “progressing well” following his January surgery to repair his torn ACL and MCL, according to Ben Volin of the Boston Herald.
- Browns offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan worked with Robert Griffin III in Washington, and he believes RG3 and new Browns quarterback Johnny Manziel have some common traits, per Jim Corbett of USA Today. “Johnny and Robert are very similar,” said Shanahan. “They’re both talented guys who can make plays with their legs. But there comes a time in the NFL when they’re going to keep you in the pocket, and you’re going to have to have that ability to make the throws with your arm and mind. And Johnny, just like Robert, has that arm talent and intelligence to do that.”
- While Jerry Hughes won’t have a problem finding a role in new Bills defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz’s scheme, fellow pass-rusher Manny Lawson might, writes ESPN.com’s Mike Rodak. Lawson spent most of last season close to the line of scrimmage as a stand-up linebacker, and that position simply doesn’t exist in Schwartz’s defense.
- Ravens cornerback Lardarius Webb is happy with the development of 2013 first-round safety Matt Elam, according to Matt Zenitz of the Carroll County Times. “From last year to this year, I see a big jump with his leadership, with him controlling the back end and just being that safety controlling the calls,” said Webb. “I just really like where I see him going.”
- The Broncos’ defensive line is heavy on both depth and competition, writes Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com, and improved line play will be essential if Denver hopes to create opportunities for edge rushers Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware.
PFR Originals: 5/25/14 – 6/1/14
Here’s the original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- Our Extension Candidate series rolled along, as Rory Parks examined Buccaneers DT Gerald McCoy (link) and Zach Links looked at both Falcons WR Roddy White (link) and Chiefs QB Alex Smith (link). You can find all the Extension Candidate reports here.
- In last week’s polls, Ben Levine asked about likely trade candidates (link) and Peter Sowards wondered who will win the backup quarterback job with the Bears (link).
- David Kipke wrote about the 49ers’ offensive line, and the tough decisions they may to make on players like Alex Boone and Mike Iupati.
- Luke Adams scrutinized the importance of June 1 in the NFL, and why we could see more free agent signings in the coming weeks.
- Luke also explored the largest 2014 cap hits, both on offense and on defense/special teams.
- Rory delved into which free agents could be most impacted by the impending June 1 deadline.
Week In Review: 5/25/14 – 6/1/14
The headlines from the past week at PFR:
Major Move:
- The Seahawks signed receiver Doug Baldwin to a two-year, ~$11MM extension.
Signing:
- Rams – G Davin Joseph (link)
First-Round Pick Signings:
- Ravens – LB C.J. Mosley (link)
- Bills – WR Sammy Watkins (link)
- Packers – S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (link)
- Chargers – CB Jason Verrett (link)
Contract Talks:
- Extension for Falcons WR Roddy White expected by training camp (link)
- 49ers G Alex Boone seeking a new contract (link)
- No progress between Steelers, LB Jason Worilds (link)
- QB Alex Smith, Chiefs not close new deal (link)
- 49ers TE Vernon Davis wants a new contract (link)
Released:
- Bears – S Derrick Martin (link)
- Giants – QB Josh Freeman (link)
Suspended:
- Cardinals LB Daryl Washington: 2014 season, substance abuse (link)
- Giants S Will Hill: six games, substance abuse (link)
Injured:
- Bears WR Domenik Hixon, ACL (link)
Deceased:
- Buccaneers owner Malcolm Glazer (link)
Other:
- Free agent TE Jermichael Finley receives medical clearance (link)
Follow all the latest news at PFR’s Transaction Page.
AFC Notes: Garoppolo, Broncos, Steelers, Bills
A final batch of AFC notes as the weekend comes to a close…
- Like Tom Brady, Patriots rookie quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo studied under a QB coach as he progressed, writes Karen Guregian of the Boston Herald. Garoppolo’s tutor, former NFL quarterback Jeff Christensen, bases his teachings on one particular NFL signal-caller…Tom Brady. Christensen, for his part, is excited about the future for Garoppolo and the Pats, citing the young QB’s excellent work ethic. “I have zero doubts about the outcome of this one. It’s so perfect,” he said. “You have to know where you’re at in the equation, accept it, and then work like a crazy man to get great. That’s the kind of kid you want to coach.”
- Within the same piece, Broncos receiver Emmanuel Sanders says he is excited to replace Eric Decker in Denver. “My whole deal is when I first came out in free agency, I wanted to go to a spread attack. I like to block, but I’m not trying to block 75 percent of the time. I’m 185 pounds…All the numbers lined up, and now I’m here.”
- The Broncos coaching staff has spoken to running back Ronnie Hillman about his fumbling problem, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post. Hillman, expected to backup starter Montee Ball in 2014, coughed up the football four times over the past two seasons.
- The Steelers are excited about rookie pass rusher Howard Jones, who faces a tough road as an undrafted player from a Disivion II program, writes Alan Robinson of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
- Speaking of the Steelers, Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review believes that despite being front seven players, Ryan Shazier and Stephon Tuitt will help Pittsburgh’s secondary. Not only will an improved pass-rush aid the secondary in coverage, Kovacevic writes, but Shazier’s presence in particular will allow Troy Polamalu to stop moonlighting as a linebacker.
- Seantrel Henderson is aware that he needs to mature in order to succeed in the NFL, and Bills general manager Doug Whaley has made it clear that this is Henderson’s final chance. “We’ve talked to Seantrel and he knows that he’s got one shot,” said Whaley after selecting Henderson with pick No. 237. “He’s been dealing with some demons. Hopefully those demons are out of his life and why not give somebody — this is America — give somebody a chance?”
NFC Roundup: Suh, Cowboys, Bears, Eagles
Despite the fact that he will be attending organized team activities this week, Ndamukong Suh continues to be the subject of trade rumors. According to Mike Freeman of Bleacher Report, teams are still contacting the Lions to inquire about Suh, despite Detroit claiming that no teams have shown interest (Twitter links). A trade of the All-Pro defensive tackle would yield almost $3MM in cap space for the Lions, but Suh’s 2014 $12.55MM base salary would probably prove too costly for any team looking to acquire him. In order for a trade to take place, it would probably take a willingness from Suh to restructure his deal, along with a first- or second-round pick heading to Detroit.
More news from the NFC:
- The Cowboys have a fondness for Boise State players, so it was logical that the team surrendered its second- and third-round picks to move up and select BSU linebacker Demarcus Lawrence, writes Rainer Sabin of the Dallas Morning News. “We like Boise guys,” said Dallas head coach Jason Garrett. “We always take a hard look at where the player has played, what kind of program [it is] and what that program is all about. They do a great job up there. It’s a very competitive program. The players that come out of there compete; they play hard. We’ve got two of them,” he said, referencing Orlando Scandrick and Tyrone Crawford.
- Jason Witten was pleased with the Cowboys draft, as he believes the selection of guard Zack Martin shows Dallas wants to improve to the running game, according to Carlos Mendez of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. “I think it says a lot about where our football team’s headed,” said Witten. “It was huge for us, because for a long time, we didn’t have that solidified. I think it speaks volumes for where we’re at and where we’re trying to go.”
- Despite the presence of veteran corners Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings, Bears first-rounder Kyle Fuller is expected to contribute in 2014, specifically because of the spread offense. “Typically, at least half of the snaps that you’ll play in the season will be with five defensive backs in the game,” said defensive coordinator Mel Tucker. “And sometimes you’ll go into game weeks or games and almost every snap will be in sub personnel…A third corner is like a starter. A third corner plays as much if not more than your third linebacker in a 4-3″ (per Patrick Finley of the Chicago Sun-Times).
- Eagles second-rounder Jordan Matthews is expected to replace Jason Avant in the slot, and fellow rookie receiver Josh Huff isn’t thought of as a field-stretcher, but that hasn’t stopped the DeSean Jackson comparions, writes Martin Frank of USA Today.
- 49ers coach John Harbaugh is known as a quarterback guru, and after San Francisco added Josh Johnson to compete for the third QB role, Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com ran through the extensive list of signal-callers that Harbaugh and company have brought in over the past three seasons.
NFC South Notes: Falcons, Jones, Saints
The Saints have been busy today — New Orleans not only became the third team to sign its first-round pick (receiver Brandin Cooks), but added two undrafted free agents, upping its total UDFA haul to 20. Let’s look at some more notes from New Orleans and the rest of the NFC South:
- Falcons seventh-round linebacker Tyler Starr (who signed a contract today) impressed during Atlanta’s rookie minicamp, writes Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com, and did so while utilizing a four-point stance (both hands on the ground). “In college…I just kind of started thinking [about] the four-point, and it gave me a little more weight in the back of my hips so I could get a little more torque out of my stance,” Starr said. “And it also helped me come out at more of a horizontal level so I could play with my hands out in front of me.” The Falcons are transitioning to a 3-4 base defense in 2014, so Starr’s versatility could come in handy.
- Running back Devonta Freeman (like Starr, a Day 3 pick of the Falcons) could also prove useful in 2014, and Orlando Ledbetter of the Orlando Journal-Constitution labels the fourth-rounder “a keeper.” “Devonta is a fast and quick guy,” said head coach Mike Smith. “He has very good vision and he’s able to stick his foot in the ground and transition into a different direction.”
- In a separate piece, Ledbetter passes along some Falcons injury news, noting that receiver Julio Jones and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon will both be held out of team activities until the start of training camp.
- Several notable players with NFL experience were included in the Saints’ rookie minicamp over the weekend on a tryout basis, with defensive end Jamaal Anderson (the No. 8 pick in 2007), receiver Armanti Edwards, and center Samson Satele among them, according to Andrew Lopez of the Times-Picayune.
- Rookie Kelvin Benjamin is the closest thing the Panthers have to a No. 1 receiver, writes David Newton of ESPN.com in his latest mailbag. I would expect Carolina to run quite a bit of “11” personnel (one RB, one TE, three WRs), with Benjamin and Jerricho Cotchery on the outside, and Jason Avant in the slot.
Bears Sign 11 Undrafted Free Agents
MAY 18: The Bears continue to add to their UDFA crop, signing former Louisville running back Senorise Perry (per Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune (on Twitter) and cornerback Marcus Trice, formerly of North Texas (per Grice’s agent Josh Thomas (via Twitter). Both attended the Bears’ rookie minicamp on a tryout basis.
MAY 11: The Bears have signed nine undrafted free agents, according to a series of tweets from the team. The list of players headed to Chicago is as follows:
- Cody Booth, T, Temple ($1K bonus, per Brad Biggs)
- James Dunbar, G, TCU ($1.5K bonus)
- Brandon Dunn, DT, Louisville ($8K bonus)
- Ryan Groy, G, Wisconsin ($8K bonus)
- Christian Jones, LB, Florida State ($7K bonus)
- DeDe Lattimore, LB, South Florida ($1.5K bonus)
- Jordan Lynch, RB, Northern Illinois ($3K bonus)
- Tana Patrick, LB, Alabama ($750 bonus)
- Lee Pegues, DT, East Carolina ($3.5K bonus)
NFC North Notes: Kromer, Packers, Lions
Bears offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer may not call the plays in Chicago (noted offensive mastermind/head coach Marc Trestman performs that duty), but that doesn’t mean his impact on offensive production is limited. Working mostly with the offensive line, Kromer molded a unit that was among the league’s worst in 2012 into one of 2013’s elite lines. The Bears’ line, infused with talent in the forms of Jermon Bushrod and Kyle Long, gave up only 30 sacks (fourth-fewest in the NFL), and finished with a fifth-best 5.5% adjusted sack rate (per Football Outsiders).
Kromer will expand his duties in 2014, writes Adam L. Jahns of the Chicago Sun-Times, as the coordinator aims to work more with the Bears’ quarterbacks and receivers. “It’s given myself a chance to broaden my horizons and not spend 100 percent of my time with the offensive line when it comes to practice and meeting time,” said Kromer. “Sometimes an offensive line coach can get pigeon-holed into just doing that job.”
More items from the NFC North:
- Packers general manager Ted Thompson doesn’t sound like he’s ready to leave Green Bay just yet, telling reporters he’s “just getting started” after the conclusion of the draft, according to ESPN.com’s Rob Demovsky. Reports surfaced earlier this month that indicated Thompson might be nearing the end of his tenure in Green Bay.
- Retired NFL kicker Jason Hanson was at the Lions’ rookie minicamp over the weekend, primarily to help seventh-round kicker Nate Freese, who had a 86.4% field goal-conversion rate while at Boston College, writes Tim Twentyman of DetroitLions.com.
- In a separate piece, Twentyman writes that Lions second-year receiver Corey Fuller has an extra reason to want to make the Detroit roster: to play against his brother (and now, divisonal rival), Bears first-round corner Kyle Fuller.
- The Lions have changed their approach with regards to undrafted free agents, according to Justin Rogers of MLive.com. While the team had previously waited until the sixth- or seventh-round to make contact with potential UDFAs, Detroit now starts placing calls to prospects as early as the fourth round. This strategy of displaying early interest in a players aided the Lions in signing Kansas State offensive tackle Cornelius Lucas.
- In his latest mailbag, ESPN.com’s Ben Goessling opines that the battle for the Vikings starting QB job between Teddy Bridgewater and Matt Cassel could play out much like the Russell Wilson–Matt Flynn situation during Seattle’s 2012 training camp.
PFR Originals: 5/11/14 – 5/18/14
Here’s the original content produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- Luke Adams examined the most balanced and the most unbalanced drafts of 2014; the Buccaneers, for example, used their selections exclusively on offensive players, while the Falcons focused primarily on supplementing their defense.
- Follow which team is making the most progress in getting its 2014 picks under contract with the PFR Draft Pick Signing Tracker.
- All of the undrafted free agent news is now located in one place, so you can observe whom your favorite team added after the draft concluded.