Saints Notes: Winston, Sherman, Baun
The biggest question facing the Saints this offseason is whether Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill will be the team’s starting QB come Week 1. Mike Triplett of ESPN.com believes Winston may be the frontrunner given that he is younger and has more upside, but the turnover and accuracy problems he had as a member of the Buccaneers are still major issues that he will need to clean up.
Of course, the club has been publicly complimentary of both players, and it was Hill — who also offers dynamic ability as a runner — who got the nod during Drew Brees‘ injury-related absence last year. Hill and Winston will be eligible for free agency following the 2021 campaign, so in addition to the starting gig, there is a lot of money riding on the outcome of this battle.
New Orleans selected former Notre Dame passer Ian Book in the fourth round of this year’s draft, and Book will learn behind Winston and Hill before perhaps getting a chance to throw his hat in the ring in 2022.
Now for more from the Big Easy:
- The Saints’ record-setting extension for RT Ryan Ramczyk cleared about $5.5MM off their books, leaving them with $10-11MM of cap space. That number could increase if the club extends franchise-tagged safety Marcus Williams, a proposition that we recently discussed. Triplett believes New Orleans will put that money to use by signing a veteran or two, and he suggests that a big name like corner Richard Sherman — who has been connected to the team this offseason — remains a possibility.
- GM Mickey Loomis is often credited as the man behind the Saints’ aggressive manipulation of the salary cap, and while Loomis has final say over the club’s transactions, Triplett also shines a light on a less recognizable member of the New Orleans front office. In examining the team’s use of backloaded contracts, restructures, and void years, Triplett describes vice president of football administration Khai Harley as one of the most innovative pioneers of those types of cap machinations, and he suggests that Harley could become a GM candidate in the future.
- Linebacker Zack Baun, who generated some first-round buzz in the 2020 draft before ultimately falling to the third round, played in just 82 defensive snaps in his rookie season. But a hamstring injury suffered in training camp and the lack of a true offseason program hindered his development, and he will have the opportunity to make a bigger impact in 2021. As Sam Shannon of the team’s official website writes, Baun is transitioning from strongside linebacker to the weakside, which will require him to perform well in coverage. His projected ability to thrive in space is what led the Saints to draft him in the first place, and he will compete with second-round rookie Pete Werner for snaps alongside middle linebacker Demario Davis.
How NIL Rights For NCAA Athletes Impact The NFL
In case you hadn’t heard, college athletes are now able to profit off of their name, image, and likeness (NIL). Late last month, the Supreme Court issued a landmark (and unanimous) decision that essentially held that the NCAA cannot limit education-related benefits student-athletes receive for playing sports. Though the opinion did not specifically address NIL rights, it is clear that any effort the NCAA makes to restrict such rights would be construed as a violation of this country’s antitrust laws.
As such, the NCAA voted to suspend its NIL-related amateurism rules, thereby allowing student-athletes to monetize their NIL rights without fear of being declared ineligible. There are still a lot of questions that remain unanswered with respect to these issues — for instance, there is not yet a federal law that governs student-athletes’ NIL rights, so each athlete’s specific rights are dependent upon the state in which he or she attends college — but for our purposes here at Pro Football Rumors, there are two major takeaways.
One, as Ben Volin of the Boston Globe details, the NFLPA has issued a memo to agents making it clear that while they are free to enter into marketing deals with collegiate players, such deals cannot include inducements for those players to sign with the agent when they elect to turn pro. In fact, agents are not even permitted to have discussions with the player about future representation. That will be a difficult rule for the union to enforce, but it’s worth noting nonetheless.
Also, there may now be some players who elect to remain in college longer than they would have before, as they may be able to make more money off of NIL rights as a collegian than they would from an NFL contract. Of course, prior to the developments of the last several weeks, the primary factor in a student-athlete’s calculus was whether staying in school would improve his draft stock. Now, that decision is a little more complicated.
It is true that the stars and slam-dunk first-round picks who will land rookie contracts worth millions of dollars probably will not see their decision as to when to turn pro impacted too much. However, players who are popular on-campus figures but who project as late-round draft choices will certainly have a great deal to think about.
Said agent Ron Slavin (via Chase Goodbread of NFL.com), “I think guys that might stay back in school are (popular) skill-position players that aren’t top-100 picks, who can make more money staying in school than going into the draft for a $250,000 signing bonus and maybe make a roster, when they can go back to their school, be the superstar, and maybe make 500 grand to a million.”
We will have to wait until next year’s draft cycle to see how all of this plays out, and more legislation could certainly be passed in the meantime. Until then, fans who are interested can access the Supreme Court opinion here, and they can review a summary of the current state of NIL rights via this piece from The Athletic College Football Staff.
Allen Robinson On Possibility Of Bears Extension
Aside from some short-lived optimism last September, it has generally felt like the Bears and WR Allen Robinson are unlikely to come to terms on a new contract. In January, we heard that Chicago was bracing for the possibility that Robinson would leave in free agency, and shortly thereafter, Robinson said that the club had yet to put a viable offer on the table.
While the Bears obviously cuffed Robinson with the franchise tag to keep him in the fold for 2021, the most recent reports on the matter suggested that no progress has been made towards an extension. In an interview on NFL Total Access today, Robinson didn’t give much of an answer when asked about the prospects of a long-term deal.
“We’ll see,” he said (via Grant Gordon of NFL.com). “I think the biggest thing like, again, like I said, just about going out there this year, having fun, making plays, trying to help this team get back into the playoffs. I think that’s the main thing.”
Robinson, who will turn 28 in August, has been a rare bright spot on a Chicago offense that has struggled over the past couple of seasons. From 2019-20, the Penn State product has averaged 100 catches for nearly 1,200 yards despite drawing the top corners from opposing defenses and catching passes from Mitchell Trubisky, Nick Foles, and Chase Daniel.
It’s hard to say if his numbers will improve much in 2021. The Bears are set to deploy Andy Dalton under center to start the season, and Dalton is far removed from the passer he was during his best years in Cincinnati. As long as he remains the starting QB, the Bears’ offense will probably resemble the Trubisky/Foles attack of 2020.
With receivers like Keenan Allen and Amari Cooper now earning $20MM+ on an annual basis, it stands to reason that Robinson will shoot for a similar payout. To date, the Bears have not come close to meeting his asking price, but given the projected salary cap spike in 2022, there may well be a couple of teams willing to pay up next offseason if Robinson continues to perform at a high level.
Saints Likely To Extend At Least One Of Marshon Lattimore, Marcus Williams
The Saints crossed a key item off their 2021 agenda earlier today by agreeing to a massive extension with right tackle Ryan Ramczyk. With that deal done, New Orleans can now turn its attention to the contract situations of several of its other high-profile talents.
Katherine Terrell of The Athletic writes that the Saints are likely to extend at least one of CB Marshon Lattimore and S Marcus Williams this summer. As Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com tweets, the Ramczyk extension cleared roughly $5.5MM off the club’s books for the 2021 season, so a Lattimore or Williams extension isn’t necessarily vital for cap purposes (plus, since Lattimore’s fifth-year option for this season was already restructured, an extension for him wouldn’t create more cap room anyway). But both players are integral pieces of DC Dennis Allen‘s defense, and the Saints would certainly like to keep them for the long haul if they can.
The problem is that New Orleans is already projected to be over the 2022 cap of $208.2MM, and GM Mickey Loomis might not be able to re-sign both of his young defenders. Terrell says Lattimore has always seemed like the higher priority, and as he plays a premium position and has three Pro Bowls to his credit, he will certainly be more expensive. On the other hand, he does not always play up to his potential, and Pro Football Focus’ metrics considered him the 70th-best corner out of 121 qualifiers last year. A March arrest could also complicate matters.
Loomis, though, has more time to talk contract with Lattimore than he does with Williams. As a franchise-tagged player, Williams cannot sign a multi-year deal after July 15. Given the Saints’ cap crunch, there was a belief that the team would not be able to retain the Utah product this year, let alone hit him with a franchise tag that carries a $10.6MM cap charge. The fact that Loomis made the financials work might be an indication of the team’s long-term outlook for Williams, who did well to clean up his one glaring weakness (his tackling abilities) in 2020.
In addition to Lattimore and Williams, left tackle Terron Armstead is also entering a contract year (his deal automatically voids in 2022). Terrell says it’s unclear what the Saints have in mind for their longtime blindside protector, but he will not come cheap either. We just saw soon-to-be 33-year-old Trent Williams pull down a $23MM/year deal, and Terrell suggests that Armstead — who will turn 30 in a few weeks — could shoot for a similar figure. With Ramcyzk now carrying a $19.2MM AAV and left guard Andrus Peat working on a $15MM/year pact, that would be a ton of money invested into the O-line.
We heard earlier this year that the Saints could let Armstead walk next offseason and shift Ramczyk to left tackle, and Terrell says that remains a possibility. Still, one would think that New Orleans will at least have serious discussions with Armstead about continuing what has been a very fruitful partnership.
Vikings S Harrison Smith On Contract Situation
Vikings safety Harrison Smith is entering the final year of the five-year, $51.25MM extension he signed in July 2016. There have been no public reports of contract talks between Smith and the Vikes, and reading between the lines of recent comments Smith made to reporters, it doesn’t sound like substantive discussions have taken place.
“I don’t have a solid answer for you, but obviously I’ve been here going on 10 [seasons] and would love to be here in the future,” Smith said (via Ben Goessling of the Star Tribune). “Going to look at those things and see what we can do. That’s about it right now.”
2020 was a difficult year for the Minnesota defense. The team was among the league’s worst in terms of points allowed per game and net yards per pass attempt, and Smith frequently had to cover for his less experienced teammates in the secondary. The Vikings made a concerted effort to address their deficiencies in that regard, adding veterans Patrick Peterson, Mackensie Alexander, Bashaud Breeland, and Xavier Woods to the defensive backfield.
Despite the influx of new pieces, the hope is that the full traditional offseason program of 2021 will allow those pieces to gel in a way that just wasn’t possible last year in the COVID-marred landscape. However, all of the new free agent acquisitions are working on one-year deals, and given Smith’s current status as a free agent-to-be, the Vikings could be looking at another major secondary overhaul in 2022.
An extension for Smith would help to add some stability to that outlook, but it’s not as though stability is the only thing that Smith offers. Though he is now 32 and saw his streak of five consecutive Pro Bowl nods come to an end last year, he still managed to intercept five passes, which tied a career-high mark. His tackle numbers (89 total takedowns) were in line with what they have been throughout his career, and he continues to be an advanced metrics darling, having graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 14th-best safety out of 94 qualifiers.
The safety market dipped considerably after Smith inked his big-money deal, but it is once again on the rise. Although the Notre Dame product might not get the $15MM+ AAV that currently tops the market, another typical season should put him in line for a multi-year pact with an eight-figure annual average.
Whether such a deal comes from the Vikings or another club remains to be seen. After all, Minnesota was open to trading Smith at last year’s deadline, though rival clubs were not keen to part with draft capital to acquire his services.
Browns, Baker Mayfield Have Not Exchanged Proposals
Baker Mayfield‘s agent, Jack Mills, recently predicted that his client and the Browns would agree to terms on a contract extension this summer. But that might be a bit optimistic. According to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com, Mayfield’s camp and the Browns have not even exchanged proposals yet, and she suggests that a new deal might not get done until late October.
Why then? Because at the start of the 2020 season, for which there were no spring workouts and no preseason, Mayfield was still getting used to head coach Kevin Stefanski‘s offense. But as Cabot observes, Mayfield was Pro Football Focus’ second-highest-rated QB over the final seven games of the year, and both player and team believe that is more representative of who Mayfield is (even though he did have some quality performances over the first few weeks of the campaign as well). By waiting until the end of October to authorize a massive extension, the Browns will essentially have a full season of data on how Mayfield performs in a quality offense that he completely understands.
The Browns are also working on new contracts for other key members of the roster, like CB Denzel Ward, RB Nick Chubb, and G Wyatt Teller (this is the first we have publicly heard that the club is talking contract with Teller and Ward, though it’s hardly a surprise). The front office might want to get those less costly pacts out of the way before turning its full attention to the Mayfield situation.
And Mayfield, who is perfectly content to bet on himself, also has reason to wait. If draftmates Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson sign extensions with AAVs in excess of $40MM, Cabot says Mayfield will not “settle” for a $35MM AAV, which Spotrac currently considers to be his market value.
At this point, Cleveland and Mayfield have no doubt that a deal will get done. It’s really just a matter of when.
Aaron Rodgers Unlikely To Opt Out Of 2021 Season
When the NFL and NFLPA agreed that players can opt out of the 2021 season, regardless of whether they have been deemed as a high risk for COVID-19 complications, it created a way for Aaron Rodgers to avoid having to play for the Packers again while still keeping his $11.5MM in signing bonus allocation for 2021 and the $6.8MM roster bonus that was earned in March (but that hasn’t been paid out yet). But Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, citing a source with knowledge of the situation, said Rodgers is unlikely to go that route.
That shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. If Rodgers were to opt out, he would have to make that decision by July 2 — just five days from now — and he would not be able to reverse course. He would be committed to sitting out the 2021 season, and the source says the three-time MVP is not ready to make that decision so soon.
That doesn’t mean that Rodgers will actually play this year. The possibility of a pseudo-retirement has been on the table since this saga began, and it remains an option. Rodgers might not be ready to take himself off the field by July 2, but if he does not get what he wants — either a trade or a new contract that commits the Packers to him until he is actually ready to call it a career — by the time training camp rolls around, he could simply announce his retirement.
He might say that 16 years in the NFL have taken a toll on his mind and body, and that he is ready to hang up the cleats. Such a move could eliminate any fines or forfeitures that the Packers would otherwise be entitled to, and Rodgers could simply unretire in 2022 and say that the year off left him feeling fresh and ready to resume his playing career.
So the COVID opt-out is apparently not a real option for Rodgers. Meaning that we will have to wait until the end of July, at the earliest, before we start to get some clarity.
Jets, Marcus Maye Far Apart In Extension Talks?
Jets safety Marcus Maye wants a new contract, and as a franchise-tagged player, he has until July 15 to agree to a long-term deal. Otherwise, he will play out the 2021 campaign on his $10.6MM franchise tender and will be eligible for free agency again in 2022.
Rich Cimini of ESPN.com wrote last week that, although Maye attended the Jets’ mandatory minicamp after skipping voluntary OTAs, he blew off his media obligations. In Cimini’s view, that suggests that contract negotiations are not going the way Maye would like, and that the 28-year-old DB did not want to discuss the matter publicly.
This week, Cimini — who believes the negotiations will go down to the wire — offers his take on where the two sides might stand. He thinks that the Jets view John Johnson‘s recent three-year, $33.75MM ($11.25MM AAV) deal with the Browns as a fair comp for Maye. Although Johnson is about three years younger than Maye, both players were drafted in 2017, and they have similar career statistics to this point. That similarity extends to the advanced metrics: Pro Football Focus rated Johnson as its third-best safety in 2020, while Maye received the fifth-highest grade. Neither player has made a Pro Bowl.
But Cimini believes Maye is eyeing a contract with an AAV of around $14MM, a threshold that six other safeties in the league have met or exceeded. New York GM Joe Douglas has generally stuck to his price during his time as the Jets’ front office head, so it’s no sure thing that Maye and the club will be able to find common ground.
Douglas used two 2021 draft picks on safeties: Auburn’s Jamien Sherwood in Round 5 and Florida State’s Hamsah Nasirildeen in Round 6. The Jets are also returning 2020 third-rounder Ashtyn Davis and are transitioning free agent acquisition Lamarcus Joyner back to safety.
Steelers In No Rush To Add OLB Depth
With T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, the Steelers boast perhaps the best outside linebacker tandem in football. Behind those two, however, the picture is less rosy, as Cassius Marsh and Quincy Roche reside as the top backups.
Earlier this year, defensive coordinator Keith Butler made it sound as if Pittsburgh would make an addition to that group, as Mark Kaboly of The Athletic observes. Now, however, the team appears to be taking more of a wait-and-see approach.
“We will see as we go along in training camp and go through the preseason,” Butler said last week. “We are looking for a third guy [behind Watt and Highsmith] right now who is going to step up. … We will see how it goes as we go along. Hopefully, we can stay healthy at that position.”
The Steelers inside linebacking corps was hit hard by injury in 2020, and head coach Mike Tomlin conceded that he is worried about attrition. However, like Butler, he seems content with how his OLB depth chart looks at the moment.
“I am comfortable with who we have working there right now,” Tomlin said. “We are going to coach those guys up and hope that attrition doesn’t set in.”
Marsh, a fourth-round pick of the Seahawks in 2014, has bounced around the league quite a bit. In addition to the ‘Hawks, he has suited up for the Patriots, 49ers, Cardinals, Colts, Jaguars, and Steelers. He joined Pittsburgh last December and ultimately played in one game before landing on the COVID-19 list. He has been a useful rotational piece at times, and his most consistent action came back in 2018, when he was on the field for over half of San Francisco’s defensive snaps and posted 5.5 sacks. He is also capable of lining up as a defensive end.
Kaboly says Marsh is the most likely player currently on the roster to become the “swing” OLB that the Steelers like to deploy when one of the starters needs a breather. Roche, a sixth-round rookie, is raw and will need a fair amount of work before Pittsburgh can count on him to be a reliable contributor.
If neither Marsh nor Roche performs well in training camp and the preseason, the Steelers could turn back to the free agent market. Earlier tonight, we took a look at the top pass rushers who remain unsigned, and other players could of course become available via cut or trade.
Top Remaining Pass Rushers
A team can never have too many pass rushers. Even as quarterbacks around the league try to get the ball out of their hands more quickly, the emphasis that most offenses put on their aerial attacks ensure that quality edge defenders will continue to be among the NFL’s most desirable commodities and, therefore, among the highest earners. As we sit in the middle of the lull between OTAs/minicamp and the start of training camp, let’s take a look at where things stand with a few of the highest-profile pass rushers that are still on the market.
- Justin Houston: Houston, one of the most fearsome pass rushers in the league during his heyday with the Chiefs, just finished up a two-year contract with the Colts. He is no longer a First Team All-Pro talent, but he was still plenty productive in Indianapolis, at least from a raw statistic standpoint. He averaged 9.5 sacks per year over his two Colts campaigns, and though Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics were not high on his work in 2020 – he received middling grades in both run defense and pass rush – the 32-year-old would be an asset to most any pass rushing corps. The only two teams really connected to him this offseason, the Ravens and the incumbent Colts, both added edge defenders in the first round of this year’s draft (Indy also invested a second-round choice on DE Dayo Odeyingbo). However, Baltimore’s first-round edge, Odafe Oweh, may be a little green, and the club lost Matt Judon and Yannick Ngakoue to free agency this offseason. As such, the Ravens may still be in the mix, and there are surely other teams monitoring the situation.
- Melvin Ingram: Like Houston, Ingram is 32, but unlike Houston, he is dealing with some health concerns. The longtime Charger earned three consecutive Pro Bowl nods from 2017-19, but knee problems limited him to just seven games in 2020. In those seven contests, Ingram failed to record a single sack, and given the lack of reporting on his knee, it’s fair to wonder if he is 100% healthy. He took a pre-draft visit with the Chiefs, and KC might still be interested, especially given Frank Clark’s recent legal trouble. Ingram also visited with the Dolphins after the draft, and while Miami selected uber-talented edge defender Jaelan Phillips with the No. 18 overall pick, the club also released LB and locker room favorite Kyle Van Noy. Plus, Phillips has a troubling medical history of his own, so there could be room in South Beach for another established pass rusher with leadership abilities. It is encouraging that Ingram’s PFF pass-rushing score of 76.3 was a top-20 mark, even if the sample size of snaps was comparatively small.
- Everson Griffen: Griffen’s free agency stay in 2020 lasted until August, when he inked a one-year deal with the Cowboys. Even though Dallas was still very much in the running for the historically weak NFC East, the club dealt Griffen to the Lions in advance of the trade deadline. The four-time Pro Bowler tallied six sacks across 14 games split between Dallas and Detroit, earning a 73.6 pass-rushing mark from PFF in the process (good for 25th out of 108 qualifiers). Now 33, Griffen is probably best utilized as a situational pass rusher at this point, but he could do well in such a role. While there has been no reported interest in his services this year, his recent history suggests that he is content to wait until late summer for the right opportunity to present itself.
- Olivier Vernon: Vernon, who will turn 31 in October, came to the Browns in 2019 as part of the blockbuster Odell Beckham trade. He lost six games to injury in his first Cleveland season and managed only 3.5 sacks. He was a candidate to be traded or released last offseason as the team flirted with Jadeveon Clowney, but ultimately he agreed to a paycut to remain with the Browns for 2020, the last year of his previous contract. He picked up nine sacks in 14 games – he has not played a full 16-game slate since 2016 – and while three of those sacks came against an injury-ravaged Eagles O-line, advanced metrics continue to be high on him. Pro Football Focus considered him the 20th-best edge player in the league last year, a grade that incorporated identical (and strong) 71.6 marks for his run defense and his pass rushing acumen. Unfortunately, he suffered a torn Achilles in the regular season finale, which is probably why there have been no reports of interest in him to date (and why he is not higher on this list). Depending on his prognosis, he could be an intriguing late summer or in-season add for any number of clubs.
- Bruce Irvin: Irvin suffered a torn ACL in Week 2 of the 2020 season, which he and the Seahawks had hoped would represent a successful second stint in Seattle. The ‘Hawks made him the No. 15 overall pick of the 2012 draft, which was generally viewed as a reach at the time, but the West Virginia product has put together a lengthy and productive NFL career. In his lone season with the Panthers in 2019, Irvin posted a career-high 8.5 sacks, and before his two-game campaign last year, he hadn’t posted a single-season sack total of less than 5.5 since his second pro season in 2013. At 33, he is the oldest player on this list, but assuming he has not faced any setbacks in his recovery, he should be ready to roll by the start of the 2021 season, or close to it. He might have a hard time getting much by way of guaranteed money, but he should certainly have an opportunity to continue his playing career if he wants to. But he may not want to. In March, Irvin posted a tweet that said, “I think it’s time,” which many obviously construed to be a hint that he was hanging up the cleats. There hasn’t been anything concrete, though, so his playing status is still unclear.