How The Panthers Can Move To No. 2 Overall
The latest rumor buzzing around the draft world involves the Panthers considering a trade up to acquire the second overall pick from the 49ers, as Matt Miller of Bleacher Report indicated yesterday. Carolina would reportedly move up with the intention of selecting either Stanford defensive lineman Solomon Thomas or LSU running back Leonard Fournette.
But what would such a trade look like? San Francisco, in the midst of a full rebuild, would likely aim to secure more draft wealth, while the Panthers — presumably in win-now mode — are probably willing to part with draft assets. As Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com wrote earlier this week, Carolina has amassed the league’s seventh-most draft capital this offseason , so the club certainly has resources to utilize if it wants to make an upward leap.
According to Chase Stuart of Football Perspective‘s draft value chart, the Panthers wouldn’t have to sacrifice all that much to move from No. 8 to No. 2. Per Stuart, the gap in the two picks is just 8.8 points of draft value, meaning Carolina’s 40th overall pick (worth 11.1 points) would be more than enough to get a deal done. The No. 64 pick — acquired from the Patriots in the Kony Ealy trade– is worth 8.1 points, meaning that it would almost be enough to entice the 49ers.
Let’s take a look at a few potential trades in chart form, using Stuart’s values:
That final trade listed involves the 49ers sending the No. 2 overall pick, an early fourth-rounder, and an early seventh-rounder to the Panthers in exchange for No. 8, No. 40, and an early fifth-round pick. The difference in draft value comes out to 0.0, meaning it’s a perfectly fair deal for both sides — at least on paper.
The classic, Jimmy Johnson-devised trade chart, however, assigns a much greater valuation to early first-round picks, so the Panthers would have to trade much more in order to secure the No. 2 selection. In Johnson’s table, the gap between the second and eighth selections is large enough that a combination of the No. 40 and the No. 64 picks (in addition to No. 8) wouldn’t be enough to convince San Francisco to swap choices. Instead, the Panthers would probably have to give up a 2018 first-rounder in order to complete the trade.
A Thomas acquisition, specifically, would be the latest signal that Panthers general manager Dave Gettleman values the defensive line above all else, as Carolina has already spent early picks on Star Lotulelei, Kawann Short, and Vernon Butler, and has re-signed Mario Addison, Charles Johnson, and Wes Horton this offseason. Thomas for his part, ranks as the fourth overall player on Todd McShay of ESPN.com‘s big board.
Fournette, meanwhile, is considered the top running back of the 2017 class, and Panthers head coach Ron Rivera recently said no draft slot is “too high” to take a runner. Carolina inked incumbent back Jonathan Stewart to a one-year extension last week, but Gettleman said that deal won’t preclude the club from selecting a running back early in this year’s draft.
Rivera Hopes Peppers Plays Beyond '17
- The Panthers‘ free agency plan focused on established veterans, and Dave Gettleman and Ron Rivera pointed to the success the more veteran-laden 2015 Super Bowl team had compared to its successor. “You go back to the Super Bowl year and you look at what we had with Roman (Harper), Charles (Tillman) and Jared Allen. Those three veteran guys right there. And then you look at what we did with (Mike) Adams, (Captain) Munnerlyn and Julius (Peppers),” Rivera said, via Joe Person of the Charlotte Observer, pointing to the additions of a 36-year-old safety, a soon-to-be 29-year-old nickel corner and a 37-year-old defensive end. “Are we trying to copy what we did? You’re darned right. We really are.” Both Adams and Peppers are actually older than the players the Panthers are bringing them in to emulate.
- Rivera hopes Peppers’ decision to sign a one-year pact doesn’t amount to a farewell tour. The seventh-year Panthers coach said the 16th-year edge defender has a lot left in the tank and wants him to consider playing beyond this season. Peppers’ three mid-30s seasons produced a combined 25 sacks, adding to Rivera’s point.
T.J. Watt To Work Out For Panthers
- Wisconsin’s T.J. Watt, brother of Texans superstar J.J. Watt, is drawing interest from a bevy of teams and getting looks at various front seven positions. The younger Watt has lined up at outside linebacker, inside linebacker and along the defensive line in recent workouts. Watt told Jeremy Bergman of NFL.com that he has worked out for the Cowboys, Lions and Patriots in the past week. He’s scheduled to work out for the Panthers, too, and will visit the Cowboys’ and Redskins’ facilities soon.
Panthers Want To Move Up To No. 2 In Draft?
The Panthers, who own the eighth pick in the draft, are interested in trading up to No. 2, Matt Miller of Bleacher Report hears. If they were to swing a deal to acquire the 49ers’ selection, the Panthers would draft either LSU running back Leonard Fournette or Stanford defensive end Solomon Thomas. Panthers head coach Ron Rivera will attend Fournette’s pro day April 5, and he attended Thomas’ last week. San Francisco, meanwhile, has expressed a willingness to move down, and Miller notes that the Panthers could use the second-rounder they received from New England in the Kony Ealy swap (No. 64) to help facilitate a trade. The 49ers would hope to land Alabama linebacker Reuben Foster at No. 8.
Poll: Should An NFL Team Sign Greg Hardy?
Greg Hardy‘s stock is lower than we ever could have expected. An Indoor Football League team flirted with the idea of signing the defensive end, but opted against it after he did not pass a fan referendum. No one wants to go near the former Pro Bowler because of his unsettling history with domestic violence and perceived lack of accountability for said violence. Even when the Cowboys gave him a second chance in 2015, he was moody, lazy, and late to practice. It’s easy to understand why the NFL wants nothing to do with him and one can even understand the IFL’s hesitation in getting involved with him. 
Still, when he’s on the field, Hardy is a game-changing talent. Between 2011 and 2013, the former sixth-round pick averaged 56 tackles and 10 sacks per season season. Even in a down year with Dallas in 2015, he ranked as the league’s 28th-best edge defender out of 110 qualified players, according to Pro Football Focus. At his worst, Hardy is a starting caliber defensive end and he won’t turn 29 until this summer.
Today, we borrow a page from the Salt Lake Screaming Eagles’ book and ask this of PFR readers: Would you want your favorite team to sign Hardy? Vote below and, if you want, explain your choice in the comments.
Would You Want Your Favorite NFL Team To Sign Greg Hardy?
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No 81% (1,619)
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Yes 19% (386)
Total votes: 2,005
Cam Newton Undergoes Successful Rotator Cuff Surgery
- Panthers quarterback Cam Newton underwent successful surgery Thursday to repair a partially torn right rotator cuff, according to David Newton of ESPN.com. Newton, who suffered the injury in Week 14 last season, will take 12 weeks off from throwing. Team officials expect he’ll be ready for training camp.
Panthers Work Out Ryan Anderson
- The Panthers recently worked out Alabama outside linebacker Ryan Anderson, a source told Matt Zenitz of AL.com (via Twitter). Anderson could be a second-round target for the Panthers, who own the 40th pick.
Panthers' Rivera On Ealy Trade
- The Panthers were willing to part with Kony Ealy via trade in part because of the team’s re-signing of Mario Addison, coach Ron Rivera says (Twitter link via ESPN.com’s Mike Rodak). Of course, there was also matter of looming contract negotiations with Ealy.
NFC South Rumors: Saints, Butler, Mixon
Saints GM Mickey Loomis tried to play it cool when asked about his team’s pursuit of Patriots restricted free agent cornerback Malcolm Butler (via Larry Holder of The Times Picayune).
“There’s not a lot I can say. We’re kicking the tires I guess,” Loomis said. “That’s the way to describe that. We’ll see how that process works.”
The Saints have presented the corner with a contract offer, but not an offer sheet. The Saints would like to work out a trade with the Patriots in which they can land Butler without forfeiting the No. 11 overall pick, but so far the Patriots are acting as though they will not play ball.
Here’s more on Butler and other news from the NFC South:
- Saints coach Sean Payton termed the Butler situation as “an exploratory mission,” (Twitter link via Ian Rapoport of NFL.com). Payton, from Rapoport’s perspective, seemed to indicate that the team has hit pause on a potential deal.
- When asked about the possibility of signing Butler to an offer sheet and giving up the No. 11 overall pick, per the terms of the first-round tender, Payton said, “I know we’re not going to do that.” (Twitter link via Phil Perry of CSNNE.com).
- Saints head coach Sean Payton says the team will meet with Joe Mixon during the draft process (Twitter link via Holder). New Orleans previously met with Mixon in early March. This week, we learned that the Patriots and Dolphins have both ruled out the controversial Oklahoma running back.
- Panthers coach Ron Rivera said he’ll be at Leonard Fournette‘s LSU Pro Day and added that no spot is “too high” to take a running back (Twitter link via Ian Rapoport of NFL.com). Recently, Panthers GM Dave Gettleman indicated that the team’s recent extension for Jonathan Stewart will not preclude the team from taking a running back early on in the draft. The Panthers own the No. 8 overall pick.
Jonathan Stewart Extension Details
- Jonathan Stewart‘s extension with the Panthers is for one year, but the new deal affects both his 2017 and 2018 cap charges, as Field Yates of ESPN.com reports. Stewart accepted a slight paycut in 2017 in exchange for an effective guarantee of $3.6MM, while the base values of his next two seasons are $4.25MM and $3.75MM. The veteran running back can also earn up to $750K annually via rushing yards incentives.