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PFR Originals News & Rumors

PFR Originals: 5/20/18 – 5/27/18

May 27th, 2018 at 2:12pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

Community Tailgate: Rodgers’ Contract

May 26th, 2018 at 9:09pm CST by Sam Robinson

With Kirk Cousins‘ and Matt Ryan‘s landmark deals completed, the market is seemingly set up for Aaron Rodgers to reset it. He seems to agree, if an airport encounter with Thomas Dimitroff is any indication.

But now that those dominoes have fallen, and the QB market’s per-year ceiling has been raised by $3MM as a result, what will Rodgers’ deal look like?

Cousins ushered the NFL into new territory with a fully guaranteed contract. The Packers’ starting quarterback’s accomplishments dwarfing the Vikings’ new one, he will certainly command more money. But the Packers may not be eager to structure Rodgers’ deal this way — a three-year, fully guaranteed agreement — since he’s under contract through 2019 on his current pact.

Green Bay has Rodgers signed to what became an incredibly team-friendly contract (five years, $110MM), and while it’s virtually impossible to imagine Rodgers getting to the 2019 season on his current deal and the leverage that would come with that position, his through-’19 accord wouldn’t seem to line up with a Cousins-type deal.

Ryan’s contract structure — five years, $150MM — would make more sense for the Packers, and that certainly would be the floor for the two-time MVP that’s probably the most valuable commodity in the NFL. Rodgers is only entering his age-34 season and recently said near-future retirement is not in the cards for him.

The 2005 first-round pick had to wait until his fourth season to start, and top-tier QB peers like Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger are much closer to retirement than he is. The Packers’ long-term future can still include the two-time MVP, and thus a perpetual Super Bowl window. And with those future Hall of Famers out of the picture at some point, Rodgers could have an even bigger opportunity to burnish his legacy.

Assuming the Packers follow the Falcons’ blueprint here, how much can Rodgers justifiably earn? The quarterback market moved rather slowly after Rodgers signed his extension in spring 2013. Entering the summer of 2017, the NFL hadn’t yet seen a $25MM-per-year player. But now that the market’s rapidly escalated, it sets up well for Rodgers to transport salaries further north.

Ryan’s $30MM AAV comprises approximately 17 percent of the league’s $177MM salary cap. Rodgers’ $22MM-per-year deal actually represented a greater percentage of the $123MM cap (18 percent) in 2013. An 18 percent chunk of the current cap is nearly $32MM, which would be quite reasonable. But with the cap rising, and Rodgers’ value being displayed via his absence last season, he could obviously ask for more. Is any kind of Packers-friendly discount, for the purposes of the franchise optimally building around him, in the cards? The cap’s steady rise and Rodgers’ 2013 contract becoming outdated (currently 10th among QBs) may nix that logic quickly.

Is a contract that is tied to a percentage of the salary cap a viable scenario? If a player was going to pursue that, Cousins may have been the one — a free agent franchise-level passer in his prime. But Rodgers’ immense importance to his team may make him a logical candidate for such an attempt. It would prevent his deal from becoming a bargain as the cap climbs toward (and eventually exceeds) $200MM in the next few years, but the Packers would obviously be hesitant about this type of player-friendly structure.

So, what will Rodgers’ next contract look like? He seems likely to exceed Ryan’s $94.5MM fully guaranteed figure, but by how much? Is he going to push for a $35MM-per-year deal and take the quarterback market to another stratosphere, or is a pact somewhere in between that and Ryan’s AAV where this will end up? Weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section!

This Date In Transactions History: Will Allen

May 26th, 2018 at 1:00pm CST by Ben Levine

In 2009, Will Allen was coming off three productive seasons with the Dolphins, and he was quickly establishing himself as one of the most reliable cornerbacks in the NFL. On May 26th, the cornerback signed a two-year, $16.2MM extension ($10MM guaranteed) with Miami… and he proceeded to play zero games under his new deal.

With one year remaining on his contract, Allen signed the deal prior to the 2009 season. The deal was set to kick in during the 2010 campaign and would last through 2011. He looked like he was worth the money during the first chunk of the 2009 season, compiling 21 tackles, two interceptions, and six passes defended. It quickly went down hill for the defensive back, as he tore his ACL in a Week 6 matchup with the Saints, ending his season. That offseason, Allen was arrested and charged with driving under the influence after nearly blowing through a police roadblock.

Then, one week before the 2010 season (the season when his new contract was set to kick in), Allen was placed on the IR with a knee issue. To stick around Miami for the 2011 campaign, the defensive back had to rip up his lucrative deal and settle for a new, one-year contract that paid significantly less than the $5.5MM he was set to make. However, the veteran was ultimately released from this new deal prior to the start of the regular season.

Allen ended up catching on with Miami again in mid-September, and he ultimately compiled 43 tackles and three passes defended in 15 games. However, the team technically ended up getting zero production out of their initial $10MM investment.

Poll: Should The Chargers Re-Sign Gates?

May 25th, 2018 at 9:00pm CST by Zachary Links

Earlier this year, the Chargers informed Antonio Gates that they would not re-sign him for a 16th season with the Bolts. However, their situation has changed in recent days after Hunter Henry‘s season-ending ACL tear. 

“We’ll look at all the options that are out there. We’ve got time to do it right now,” GM Ted Telesco said when asked about Gates earlier this week.

Gates, 38 in June, isn’t quite the player he was in 2009, but he was highly productive as recently as two years ago when he caught 53 passes for 548 yards and seven scores. On a limited snap count, Gates could help replace some of Henry’s production in 2018, even if he doesn’t match his 12.9 yards per catch average.

Gates’ familiarity with the Chargers’ offense and personnel also shouldn’t be discounted. He’s been catching passes from Philip Rivers since 2004 while earning eight Pro Bowl nods and three First-Team All-Pro selections along the way.

The 6’4″ tight end probably represents the splashiest move they could make, but he’s not the only noteworthy tight end available. Julius Thomas, Brent Celek, and Coby Fleener are all out there for the taking and it’s possible that one of those three players would be more amicable to playing in a limited role than Gates.

Alternatively, the Chargers could patch things up at TE by shifting sixth-round rookie Dylan Cantrell from receiver to tight end. Cantrell has the height (6’3″) and may have blocking ability ability to make the move, but he’s untested.

All things considered, do you think the Chargers should change course and re-sign Gates? Cast your vote below and support your decision in the comment section.

Should The Chargers Re-Sign Antonio Gates?
Yes 76.64% (748 votes)
No 23.36% (228 votes)
Total Votes: 976

This Date In Transactions History: Jerry Rice

May 25th, 2018 at 7:13pm CST by Zachary Links

Jerry Rice is best remembered for his remarkable 16-year career with the Niners, in which he earned a dozen Pro Bowl nods and ten First-Team All-Pro selections. After that, Rice had some less remarkable – but still productive – seasons with the Raiders. His final NFL games were spent in a Seahawks uniform, but that wasn’t the original plan. On this date in 2004, Rice signed a one-year contract with the Broncos. 

“For so many years there was so much pressure on me,” Rice told Denver beat reporters on a conference call after signing his deal (via The Associated Press). “I had to set a certain standard and I still carry on that standard. But I had a lot of weight on my shoulders. I had blinders on. I couldn’t hear the crowd. I couldn’t hear them chanting my name and I couldn’t see little kids in the stands. I was so focused on what I had to do. The last couple of years, though, he has been more of a role player. The ball was not coming my way every down and I’m really enjoying the game and having fun.”

Rice was 42 years old at the time, meaning that his plans to continue playing were ambitious, even by Jon Gruden‘s standards today. In 2004, the legendary receiver totaled just 30 catches for 429 yards and three touchdowns. Even though he still averaged an impressive 14.3 yards per reception, he was no longer the player that he once was, and Denver head coach Mike Shanahan did not guarantee his place on the roster.

“I told Jerry that I don’t know if he’s lost a step or two steps, but you’re going to come here for one reason and that’s to compete with the other guys,” Shanahan said. “And if you’re one of our top five guys at the end of camp, then you’re going to be on our football team. If you’re not, I said I’d have one of the toughest jobs in the world.”

As the season drew near, Rice realized that he would be no higher than fourth or fifth on the Broncos’ depth chart. After serving as a role player in ’04, Rice decided in September that he would rather retire than be a role player in Denver.

The receiver left the game with remarkable league-record totals of 1,549 catches for 22,895 yards and 197 touchdowns – numbers that are in no danger of being eclipsed anytime soon, unless Larry Fitzgerald changes course and decides to play into his 40s.

So, Rice’s run with the Broncos never came to pass, but if you happen to have his replica orange-and-blue jersey hanging in your closet, you can probably fetch a nice price for it on eBay.

PFR Originals: 5/13/18 – 5/20/18

May 20th, 2018 at 2:06pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past seven days:

Community Tailgate: Where Will Dez Bryant Play In 2018?

May 20th, 2018 at 10:32am CST by Rory Parks

Dez Bryant sits atop PFR’s most recent ranking of the top 10 offensive players still available on the free agent market. Still just 29, he is a three-time Pro-Bowler with one first-team All-Pro nod to his credit, and he was targeted 132 times last season. Though he is clearly no longer the player he was earlier in his career, the fact that he has only piqued the interest of just one team — the Ravens — since he was released by the Cowboys is a surprise.

Of course, the timing of his release was a bit unfortunate. He was cut over a month after free agency opened, and at that point, most of the WR1/WR2 vacancies had been filled, and teams did not have as much money to spend. Plus, with the draft right around the corner, clubs were devoting more attention to collegiate prospects than anything else.

Baltimore did offer Bryant a three-year, $21MM pact, but he turned it down, as he prefers a one-year deal that would enable him to boost his value and give himself one more shot at a big-money contract (if he had his way, he would also sign on with an NFC East team). Outside of the Ravens’ offer, however, the only news on Bryant is that teams are not interested in him, even on a league minimum deal. There are a number of clubs that still make sense as a potential landing spot — like the Packers and Bills — but those teams have generally indicated that they do not plan to pursue the former first-round selection.

Bryant was never a gifted route runner, and his earlier success stemmed largely from his athleticism and his ability to make contested catches. As he has gotten older and dealt with injury problems, his physical advantages have evaporated to a large degree, and that reality, combined with his perceived attitude issues, is doubtlessly scaring teams away. But still….no interest at all?

As always, players will sustain injuries, players will underperform, and front office executives will reassess their roster on a daily basis. Bryant will find a job, even if he has to accept a contract not at all to his liking. But we would like to know your thoughts on the matter. Why is no one willing to entertain the notion of signing him right now, where will he ultimately end up, and what does the future hold for the Oklahoma State product who was one of the most exciting players in football not too long ago?

Poll: Which Team Best Addressed QB Spot This Offseason?

May 19th, 2018 at 5:25pm CST by Sam Robinson

This turned out to be an important year for quarterback acquisitions. Many teams’ short- and long-term futures will depend heavily on the players they added over the past two months.

A fourth of the NFL made major investments in outside talent at the quarterback position this offseason. Which team did you think is in the best position after all the dominoes fell?

Three teams acquired their unquestioned starters via trade or free agency. The Redskins’ trade for Alex Smith ensured they were not going to pick a quarterback in the draft. As did the Vikings’ subsequent Kirk Cousins agreement. The Broncos entered the draft as a borderline QB destination, but John Elway valued Bradley Chubb more than Josh Allen or Josh Rosen, eschewing a Bills offer that would have given his team extra first- and second-round picks. So, Case Keenum is going to be Denver’s starter.

Four of the five teams that used first-round picks on quarterbacks made sure to add bridge-type solutions, with the Browns moving first to get Tyrod Taylor. The Jets and Cardinals then respectively proceeded to bring in Josh McCown, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Bradford and Mike Glennon. And the Bills made the final stopgap addition in A.J. McCarron. But these players, for the most part, are 2018 placeholders — at best.

Was Baker Mayfield worth the No. 1 overall pick? Or did the Browns make what could turn out to be the costliest of their spree of modern quarterback misjudgments last month? Several Cleveland executives independently rated Mayfield as the draft’s premier passer, going against the grain of the many teams that viewed Sam Darnold as this year’s top passing prospect. The Jets appear to have appreciated this bold move, and Darnold is almost certainly going to see extensive time in 2018. PFR readers believe he will.

The Bills worked the phones relentlessly in an effort to install Allen behind McCarron, and the Cardinals reportedly had the Wyoming prodigy rated as their top QB as well. But Allen could need extensive seasoning, and as of now, a returning playoff team has a fifth-year player with 133 career pass attempts set to open the season and possibly close it as the starter.

Conversely, the player the Cardinals invested in was tabbed by many draft experts as the readiest pro. And Bradford being in front of Rosen for 16 games may be asking a lot from the injury-prone veteran. The Ravens are already planning Jackson packages, and although the player whom some teams wanted to work out as a wide receiver may need a season to develop, this draft’s most dominant college QB resides in Baltimore behind Joe Flacco.

Armed with one of the league’s most talented rosters, Minnesota had the most obvious case to pursue a veteran. And the Vikings made history by authorizing a $28MM-AAV fully guaranteed deal for the soon-to-be 30-year-old Cousins, who may be the safest option among all of these players. But he’s now the league’s second-highest-paid passer and tethered to the Vikings through 2020. Smith is coming off his best NFL season, but his Chiefs teams disappointed in two home playoff opportunities. Washington could also be much further away from contention than Minnesota, and the Redskins have now brought in quarterback who for all the stability he offers is four years older.

It’s debatable the Broncos’ contention window could still be open, with many of their core Super Bowl 50 performers still on the team and having played the past two seasons without much help at quarterback. But a 5-11 team armed with only its second top-five pick since 1992 passing on two coveted QB prospects to pursue the 30-year-old Keenum, a late-blooming talent or a player who benefited from better circumstances, could also be classified as a bold choice as Rosen and Allen’s careers unfold. The Broncos only committed to Keenum for two years and are paying Football Outsiders’ No. 4 2017 DYAR passer $10MM less per year than Cousins commanded.

So, with all things considered, which of these franchises is best set up after this offseason? Did one of the teams that spent a first-round pick on a QB ensure a decade and then some of stability and promise? Or did the teams that went strictly for vets get this right? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section!

Which team best addressed the quarterback spot this offseason?
Minnesota Vikings 26.33% (560 votes)
New York Jets 15.04% (320 votes)
Cleveland Browns 14.57% (310 votes)
Arizona Cardinals 11.38% (242 votes)
Washington Redskins 10.48% (223 votes)
Buffalo Bills 8.18% (174 votes)
Denver Broncos 7.80% (166 votes)
Baltimore Ravens 6.21% (132 votes)
Total Votes: 2,127

This Date In Transactions History: Malcolm Butler

May 19th, 2018 at 11:58am CST by Ben Levine

Three years ago today, the Patriots signed several rookies, including fourth-round pick center Bryan Stork and sixth-round guard Jon Halapio. However, New England’s most important move seemingly flew under the radar, as they also signed an undrafted free agent who’d go on to become a Super Bowl hero.

On May 19th, 2014, New England inked undrafted rookie Malcolm Butler to a deal. The West Alabama product was plenty productive during his collegiate career, earning himself a pair of First-Team All-GSC nods. However, the cornerback ended up going undrafted in the 2014 draft, and it took him more than a week to finally latch on with an NFL team. Butler was surprisingly productive during his rookie campaign, compiling 15 tackles and three passes defended for New England. However, his most notable performance was during Super Bowl XLIX, when he picked off a Russell Wilson pass attempt for the championship-winning interception.

Butler parlayed that Super Bowl performance into a starting gig with the Patriots, and he proceeded to earn a 2015 Pro Bowl appearance after finishing with 67 tackles, 15 passes defended, and two interceptions. Following another productive 2016 campaign, Butler and the Patriots seemingly butted heads during the 2017 offseason. The team assigned a first-rounder tender to the restricted free agent (which he ultimately signed), and they proceeded to sign Stephon Gilmore to a lucrative $65MM contract. Butler was demoted to the second spot on the depth chart, and the Patriots’ manipulation of his contract situation led to some ill will.

Butler was productive again in 2017, but he was mysteriously benched during the Patriots’ Super Bowl loss to the Eagles. Butler ended up bolting for Tennessee back in March, signing a five-year, $61MM contract ($30MM guaranteed).

Fortunately for the Patriots, they probably never expected that kind of production from an undrafted rookie. On the flip side, when Butler made the game-winning interception during the Super Bowl, they probably never thought that he’d willingly leave the organization three years later.

This Date In Transactions History: Bruce Irvin Suspension

May 17th, 2018 at 8:55pm CST by Ben Levine

Following the 2012 season, the Seahawks were surely thrilled with what they had gotten out of Bruce Irvin. The organization had surprised many pundits by selecting the West Virginia product 15th overall, but the defensive end was plenty productive during his rookie campaign. Despite playing behind Chris Clemons and Red Bryant, Irvin managed to compile eight sacks, a mark that still stands as a career-high.

However, Irvin and the Seahawks got some bad news on May 17th, 2013, as the NFL suspended the lineman four games for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy (it was reported that Irvin was specifically suspended for performance-enhancing drugs). While the player quickly bounced back from the suspension (he’s only missed a pair of regular season games since), the punishment ended up having a lasting impact on his career.

Why? On the day of the suspension, NFL Network’s Mark Sessler wrote that the Seahawks had known about Irvin’s suspension for months. This information ultimately led the organization to pursue a pair of defensive ends: Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett. While it wasn’t explicitly stated, we can assume that the Seahawks front office may have only pursued one of these free agents had Irvin not been punished. These additions ultiamtely forced the team to convert Irvin to linebacker, a position he’s played ever since.

Irvin ended up being plenty productive at his new position, finishing the 2012 season with 40 tackles and two sacks en route to a Super Bowl championship. He compiled 12 total sacks between the 2013 and 2014 seasons before hitting free agency. He ultimately inked a lucrative four-year, $37MM contract with the Raiders, reuniting him with former Seahawks linebackers coach Ken Norton Jr., who was the team’s defensive coordinator at the time (ironically, Norton Jr. is back in Seattle as the Seahawks’ defensive coordinator).

The 30-year-old hasn’t lost a step during his two seasons in Oakland, averaging 7.5 sacks and just under 58 tackles. However, you’ve got to wonder how Irvin’s career may have been different had he never been suspended five years ago today.

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