PFR Originals News & Rumors

Poll: Who Will Tom Brady Play For In 2020?

February 9th, 2020 at 10:05am CST by Rory Parks

As expected, Tom Brady‘s name has become a mainstay in NFL headlines as we creep closer to the opening of free agency in March. Even as the 2019 season was in progress, his future in the league was often discussed, and several teams were rumored as potential landing spots if he should continue his playing career and elect to leave the Patriots.

And while Brady put an end to any retirement drama immediately after New England’s ouster from the playoffs by saying he would return to the field in 2020, the question of where he will play is still very much unsettled.

The Chargers, long rumored as a possible fit, were definitively linked to Brady just last week, when Ian Rapoport of NFL.com confirmed that the Bolts would make a push for the six-time Super Bowl champ. Given the talent that LA boasts at the skill positions and the fact that the club could incorporate Brady’s TB12 workout facility into its brand new stadium — not to mention Brady’s connections to SoCal — a Chargers-Brady partnership is a logical one.

But LA’s division rival, the Raiders, are also planning to pursue the future Hall of Famer. Adding Brady at this point in his career would not necessarily represent a slam-dunk upgrade over Derek Carr, but it would make a ton of sense from a marketing perspective for the Las Vegas-bound outfit and for Brady, and if the Raiders improve their receiving corps — which they are fully expected to do — they could compete for a wildcard berth in 2020.

The Colts and Titans have been more speculative fits than anything else, but the Colts hung around the playoff picture for much of the 2019 season, the AFC South looks like it will be up for grabs again in 2020, and Brady could be the boost that gets Indianapolis back to the postseason. The Colts are also flush with cap space, so they could afford to sign Brady while also providing him with a couple of additional weapons, though they already have a few talented pieces at the skill positions.

Of course, the Titans were the team that ended the Patriots’ 2019 playoff run, and they advanced to the AFC Championship game behind a dominant running game and good defense. Ryan Tannehill was more of a game manager in the playoffs than he was in his regular season renaissance, and recent reports have suggested that Tennessee may not be as committed to him as was once believed. If Brady is interested, the Titans may be, too.

And then there’s the Patriots, who became one of the all-time great dynasties in sports with Brady under center. Owner Robert Kraft has made it clear that he wants Brady back, but some around the league believe the 42-year-old will leave Foxborough, leaving the Pats without a definitive answer at QB for the first time in 20 years.

So what do you think? Will Brady remain with the only team he has ever known, or will he play out the remainder of his career trying to bring glory to another franchise? Vote in the poll below and show your work in the comments.

This Date In Transactions History: First NFL Draft

February 8th, 2020 at 10:48am CST by Ben Levine

If you’ve read any of our “This Day in Transactions History” entries, you’ve probably realized that the transactions are somewhat recent. Well, thanks to NFL.com analyst and Pro Football Hall of Famer Gil Brandt (on Twitter), we’re going to go back all the way to 1936.

On this date 84 years ago, the first NFL Draft took place. The event was held at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Philly, with 81 selections being made over nine rounds. The draft ultimately produced four Hall of Famers: offensive tackle Joe Stydahar (1.6 by the Bears), fullback Alphonse “Tuffy” Leemans (2.18 by the Giants), tight end Wayne Millner (8.65 by the Boston Redskins), and offensive guard Dan Fortmann (9.78 by the Chicago Bears).

However, the most amusing anecdote from the 1936 NFL Draft revolved around the first-overall pick. After winning the inaugural Heisman Trophy following a standout campaign at the University of Chicago, running back Jay Berwanger was selected as the first-overall pick in the NFL Draft by the Philadelphia Eagles. However, Berwanger was demanding around $1K per game. The Eagles weren’t confident that they could meet those monetary demands, so they ended up trading the halfback to the Bears for offensive tackle Art Buss.

Berwanger didn’t immediately sign with Chicago, but that decision didn’t have much to do with money; rather, the athlete wanted to maintain his amateur status so he could compete in the decathlon at the 1936 Olympics. After being eliminated from Olympics contention, it was back to negotiating, with Berwanger requesting $15K. Bears owner George Halas‘ top offer was $13.5K, and the two sides refused to find common ground.

Berwanger ended up walking away from the NFL, joining the University of Chicago coaching staff before spending time as a sportswriter. Unfortunately, he never made an NFL appearance, emphasizing that these stubborn financial disputes have basically been occurring throughout the league’s history.

Release Candidate: Trumaine Johnson

February 4th, 2020 at 10:06am CST by Zachary Links

The Jets will have some tough decisions to make in the months ahead. Will they part ways with running back Le’Veon Bell, even though that would result in an absurdly high dead money hit? Will they give safety Jamal Adams a top-of-the-market deal, stand pat, or open up the phone lines on trade inquiries, as they did before last year’s trade deadline? And how about free agent wide receiver Robby Anderson, who is gunning for big bucks after posting a so-so stat line?

Those are just some of the issues that need to be addressed by GM Joe Douglas this offseason. However, there are also easier calls to be made, including the future of cornerback Trumaine Johnson.

In 2018, former GM Mike Maccagnan inked Johnson to a five-year, $72.5MM deal with $34MM guaranteed at signing. Previous to that, Johnson performed as one of the league’s better cornerbacks with the Rams across six seasons. In New York, Johnson fell way, way short of expectations.

In his first year with Gang Green, Johnson missed significant time with a quad injury that some Jets staffers believe he could have played through. He did come away with four interceptions in 2018, but that stat doesn’t tell the whole story – Johnson struggled in coverage and looked like a shell of his former self.

Things deteriorated even further in 2019 – Johnson appeared in only seven games before landing on IR in early November. He was also benched for performance reasons and, unsurprisingly, they were unable to find any takers for him at the trade deadline.

Coach Adam Gase was vocal about his frustration with Johnson, but there was no sense in releasing him last year due to his deal. Cutting Johnson in 2019 would have resulted in $24MM in dead money with zero cap relief. This year, they’d still be saddled with $12MM in dead money, and they’d only save $3MM by dropping the 30-year-old, but that’s exactly what the Jets will do, in all likelihood.

The $3MM saved won’t be enough to sign a new starting cornerback, but it’s at least something. Expect Douglas to tack that on to his existing ~$50MM in cap room, a number that could grow even further by cutting vets like guard Brian Winters, cornerback Darryl Roberts, wide receiver Quincy Enunwa, and linebacker Avery Williamson.

NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Jeff Okudah

February 3rd, 2020 at 1:55pm CST by Zachary Links

Much of this year’s draft buzz is centered around LSU quarterback Joe Burrow and Ohio State edge rusher Chase Young. Beyond those two, however, this year’s crop is chock full of potential superstars, including Young’s teammate Jeff Okudah.

No one was surprised when Okudah, one of the nation’s best cornerbacks, decided to forego his final season of eligibility to go pro. As a junior, Okudah notched 34 total tackles, three interceptions, and effectively turned his side of the field into a no-fly zone. Physically, he checks pretty much every box you could want for an NFL corner – he’s 6’1″, well-built at 200 pounds, and has the speed to keep up with just about any receiver.

Thanks to his tools, the Buckeyes were able to deploy him in man-to-man coverage whenever they wanted. He’s been lauded for his instincts as well. Okudah has a natural feel for guarding defenders and the general belief is that he won’t have a serious learning curve as he adjusts to the speed of the pro game.

Those intangibles were on display throughout the year, but they were especially apparent in Ohio State’s September win over Nebraska. In that game, Okudah came away with two of his three picks on the year. The first interception saw Okudah read the eyes of Adrian Martinez and turn on the jets to come away with the ball – making a huge play when most cornerbacks would have been forced to settle for a completion. The second interception was a SportsCenter producer’s dream – Okudah slips as he covers Wan’Dale Robinson, but continues to keep his eyes on the ball and manages to snag the interception while laying on his back. It’s the sort of thing that you could teach, or drill for, yet Okudah has the natural instincts to make the big play.

He’s also craftier than your average rookie CB, which should help him navigate around NFL zebras.

“Being on an island does not faze him,” The Athletic’s Dane Brugler recently told Ethan Greenberg of the Jets’ team website. “He’s able to make contact without drawing flags and that’s something that’s a subtlety that’s a strength to his game. He’s able to get physical and be aggressive but do so without attracting the yellow flags from officials.”

There aren’t many knocks on Okudah – Brugler notes that he’ll have to improve on his footwork, for example, but evaluators generally view Okudah as a safe top-end choice with the potential to eventually become one of the very best CBs in the NFL.

With all of that said, Okudah probably won’t garner consideration for the top overall pick. At No. 1, the Bengals are widely expected to tap LSU’s Joe Burrow, giving them a signal caller that can usher the club into their latest rebuild. Then, at No. 2, many feel that Chase Young is a slam dunk for the Redskins and new head coach Ron Rivera.

Okudah, who would be a true candidate for the No. 1 overall pick in most drafts, might not have to wait much longer than that. The Lions have the third overall pick and they could certainly use a game-changing corner like Okudah. If the Lions choose to fill multiple defensive holes by trading down, the Chargers and Jaguars are just two of the Top 10 clubs that could consider a top-flight corner just as Okudah. The No. 9 pick – owned by Jacksonville – pretty much represents his floor. And, right now, we’re expecting him to be long gone by that point.

This Date In Transactions History: Pats Sign Player To Unprecedented Futures Deal

February 1st, 2020 at 11:00am CST by Ben Levine

When we add entries to the “This Date in Transactions” series, we generally don’t focus on players without an NFL appearance, especially when said transaction is a usually-anonymous futures deal. However, on this date in 2013, one of the more unusual futures contract was signed.

On February 1st, 2013, the New England Patriots officially signed Armond Armstead to a futures contract. The defensive tackle had once been a top prospect at USC, but the school’s medical staff refused to clear him for the 2011 campaign after learning of a major heart issue (Armstead would later sue the school, saying the team doctors’ use of painkillers contributed to the heart issue and ultimately compromised his earning potential). With the lineman being forced to miss his senior season, he ended up going undrafted in the 2012 Draft.

Armstead later took his talents to the CFL, where he earned an All-Star nod after compiling 43 tackles and six sacks en route to a Grey Cup Championship. Following his standout campaign, the lineman requested (and was granted) his released so he could pursue an NFL gig.

It didn’t take long for him to find his next deal, as he inked a futures deal with the Patriots on February 1st. So what’s so unusual about the contract? Well, let’s first review the standard futures deal. These contracts tie players to a teams’ roster throughout the offseason, and it counts towards the salary cap and 90-man camp roster for the subsequent season. These deals are usually one-year, minimum-salary, non-guaranteed deals. In fact, in 2011, the NFLPA filed a collusion suit against the league claiming that front offices were conspiring to keep these values especially low (among other, more notable salary-cap machinations).

Armstead’s deal was one of the few futures contracts that offered anything of substance, with the total value being practically unprecedented. The team signed the lineman to a three-year futures contract that included $655K in guaranteed money (the deal could have been worth up to $1.48MM). This kind of commitment by the Patriots proved that the organization was high on the prospect and there was probably some competition for his services.

Unfortunately, the deal didn’t end up working out. Armstead required surgery to treat an infection during the 2013 offseason, leading to his placement on the reserve/non-football injury list. He didn’t see the field during his rookie campaign, and he ended up announcing his retirement during the 2014 offseason.

While Armstead’s NFL career didn’t work out, he still has this interest footnote (as well as $655K) to fall back on.

This Date In Transactions History: Chiefs Trade Alex Smith To Redskins

January 30th, 2020 at 10:03am CST by Zachary Links

On this date in 2018, the Chiefs traded Alex Smith to the Redskins in blockbuster move that had wide-ranging implications across the entire NFL. The deal brought the Redskins a proven quarterback who was coming off of, arguably, the best season of his career. For the Chiefs, the trade gave them a 2018 third-round draft pick, a promising young cornerback in Kendall Fuller, and a clear path to elevate Patrick Mahomes to the starting lineup.

Even as Smith led the league in passer rating (104.7) and finished third in adjusted net yards per attempt, the football world was buzzing about the potential of Mahomes. The Chiefs didn’t see much of the youngster in live action, outside of some time in the meaningless 2017 regular season finale, but they saw enough of him on the practice field to know that he was special and that he was ready. Smith, meanwhile, had one year remaining on his deal. The Chiefs opted to turn his salary into draft capital, support for the secondary, and extra cash that they could spend elsewhere.

After Smith set career-highs in completion percentage (67.5), yards (4,042), and touchdowns (26), the Redskins saw him as a fitting replacement for Kirk Cousins, who was on his way out after years of friction and botched extension talks. The acquisition of Smith ruled out any possibility of a reconciliation and officially set Cousins on course for free agency, where he found a fully-guaranteed multi-year deal with the Vikings.

The Chiefs’ side of the swap made total sense – they were parlaying their surplus into extra ammunition. For the Redskins, the deal raised some eyebrows. Even after Smith posted a career-low interception rate of 1%, many doubted that he would be an improvement over Cousins. Keeping Cousins would have been more costly in terms of guaranteed dollars (and would have required a whole lot of fence-mending), but there was plenty of cost that came with Smith – Fuller, valuable draft capital, and the four-year extension given to him the day after the trade. That deal, taking Smith through 2022, gave Smith $23.5MM per year, making him the sixth-highest paid QB in the NFL at the time of signing.

Two years later, it’s hard to get a true read on the Redskins’ end of this blockbuster deal. Smith led the club to a 6-3 start in his first season with the Redskins, but a gruesome leg injury in Week 11 changed everything. The compound and spiral fracture to his tibia and fibula required complicated surgery, and the post-surgery infection that he developed led to 17 more operations. Smith missed all of 2019 and no one knows when, or if, he’ll return to football. For his part, Smith says he still wants to play.

“I still have dreams of getting back to where I was and getting back out there,” Smith said in January. “This has been a crazy ride with a lot of unforeseen turns, but without a doubt, that’s still my goal.”

Smith, now 35, is set to count $21.4MM against the Redskins’ cap this year. No cap savings can be gained by releasing him until 2021.

In Kansas City, Mahomes lit the NFL on fire, leading the league with 50 passing touchdowns against just 12 interceptions. He was unstoppable again in 2019 – even a fairly serious knee injury could only limit him for a few weeks. This week, he’ll lead the Chiefs into the Super Bowl, where they’ll aim for their first championship since 1970.

This Date In Transactions History: Travis Kelce Signs Extension

January 29th, 2020 at 7:54pm CST by Ben Levine

Travis Kelce will check off another career milestone this weekend when he makes his first Super Bowl appearance. Four years ago today, he achieved one of the first major accomplishments, inking a five-year extension with the Chiefs.

Back when the deal was signed in 2016, Kelce was an up-and-comer at the tight end position. The former third-rounder had compiled 850-plus receiving yards and five touchdowns for the second-straight season, and he earned his first Pro Bowl nod. Despite the production, Kelce was still working to endear himself to the organization. Kelce missed his entire rookie season recovering from knee surgery, and coach Andy Reid referred to him as “immature” following an incident during his sophomore campaign.

Still, the organization believed in him enough to give him a market-setting five-year, $46MM extension (with a bit more than $20MM guaranteed). In hindsight, that deal ended up working out brilliantly for the Chiefs. Kelce has evolved into the league’s premier tight end, averaging 92 receptions, 1,182 receiving yards, and 6.75 touchdowns over the past four seasons.

That extension is set to expire following the 2020 season, and assuming Kelce remains relatively healthy, he should earn another lucrative payday. The $46MM deal is still the highest at the position, but the veteran has predictably been surpassed in guaranteed money (where Trey Burton, Jordan Reed, and Zach Ertz top Kelce) and average value (Jimmy Graham is the leader).

Austin Hooper, Hunter Henry, and Eric Ebron are among the players hitting free agency this offseason, so there’s a chance the market could reset. Kelce will surely have his eye on those various deals as he prepared for the 2021 offseason. For now, the tight end is going to prepare for the biggest game of his life, although he may briefly think back to four years ago today when he inked his extension with the Chiefs.

NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Chase Young

January 29th, 2020 at 10:26am CST by Zachary Links

With the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Cincinnati Bengals (will probably) select LSU quarterback Joe Burrow. Not long after that, the draft’s consensus top talent – Ohio State defensive end Chase Young – will be chosen.

It’s a familiar refrain in the NFL Draft, which never unfolds in the order of the “best player available.” Even though Young likely won’t be the top choice this year, he’s arguably commanded more attention in the football world than any other prospect in his class, and for good reason.

Young isn’t just the best edge rusher in 2020 – some say he’s the best pass-rushing prospect in years. Pro Football Focus, which has been grading at the college level since 2014, bestowed historic grades to Josh Allen (Kentucky, 2018), Nick Bosa (Ohio State, 2017), Myles Garrett (Texas A&M, 2015), and other elite prospects – Young topped them all in 2019.

Still, you don’t need advanced metrics to see why Young is such a special talent. Evaluators have been drooling over his potential for years, dating back to his days at high school powerhouse DeMatha Catholic. His presence was felt immediately at Ohio State in 2017 and he followed that up with a ten-sack season as a sophomore in 2018. Last year, Young went ballistic: 17 sacks (the most in the FBS), 21 tackles for a loss, and seven forced fumbles…in a season that was cut short by two games, thanks to a suspension over a loan from the draconian NCAA.

Listed at 6’5″ and 265 pounds, Young seems to check every box. He’s powerful against the run and unfathomably smooth as a pass rusher. At Ohio State, Young was the focus of every opposing offensive line, including some of the nation’s most elite units. Frequently, Young was double-teamed, and that didn’t usually work, save for his December matchup against Michigan in which it felt like they double-teamed him on every snap. Even then, the extra attention on Young meant more opportunities for the rest of the front seven, and Ohio State rolled to a 56-27 blowout.

Even evaluators that have put Young under a microscope haven’t been able to find many flaws. Young may have to get more consistent with his pad level and work on his vision, some say. Those critiques are the football equivalent of seeing a supermodel walk down the street and remarking that her nail polish color is tacky. As far as pass-rushing prospects go, Young is as good as they get.

Despite their glaring need at quarterback and unbridled love for Burrow, the Bengals will consider the local phenom for the top pick. At this stage, we’re expecting the Bengals to take Burrow no matter what, but that won’t affect Young much. The Redskins, at No. 2, probably represent Young’s absolute floor.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Dak Prescott

January 28th, 2020 at 9:29am CST by Zachary Links

With all the talk surrounding Tom Brady‘s impending free agency, it’s almost like you could forget about Dak Prescott‘s scheduled trip to the open market. Almost.

At the start of the season, it seemed like Prescott was right on the cusp of a brand new multi-year deal with the Cowboys. Back in September, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said a new deal was “imminent.” Then, Jones & Co. spent the rest of the year deflecting questions about a potential extension. Now, the pressure is on for the Cowboys to hammer out a mega-deal that will keep Prescott under center for the foreseeable future.

Both sides have ample reason to get something done, but the Cowboys, understandably, have reservations about tying up a ludicrously high percentage of their available dollars in a handful of players. Back in September, the Cowboys offered up a contract that would have paid Prescott an average of $33MM/year. However, Prescott held off during his insanely hot start, and he was probably eyeing Russell Wilson‘s league-leading $35MM/year average.

The Cowboys’ second-half dip cost them a playoff berth and hurt Prescott’s leverage. Through the first seven games of the year, Prescott completed more than 70% of his passes with 12 TDs and seven INTs. On the back nine, Prescott completed just 61.5% of his throws with 18 touchdowns against four interceptions.

Still, there was plenty of blame to go around for the Cowboys’ drop, and much of it fell on Jason Garrett. Prescott, who won’t turn 27 until July, figures to cash in, one way or another. If the Cowboys can’t come to an agreement with Prescott on a long-term deal, they can keep him from free agency via the franchise tag, which is projected to come in at roughly $26.9MM for quarterbacks. The former fourth-round pick would surely prefer the security of a four-year contract, but that’s still a substantial pay bump from the $2.025MM base salary he earned in the final year of his rookie deal.

What will it take for the Cowboys to get a deal done with Prescott? After he finished second in passing yards (4,902) and fourth in passing touchdowns (30, a new career-high), it won’t be cheap. By betting on himself, Prescott has all but assured that he can top Jared Goff‘s four-year, $134MM deal, which averages out to $33.5MM/year. Meanwhile, his camp surely has Goff’s $110MM in guarantees – an NFL record – in the crosshairs.

The stats and comps are only part of the equation as the prospect of multiple franchise tags looms large. Sure, the Cowboys can cuff Prescott for 2020 at ~$27MM, but what about 2021, when the cost would rise another 20% to more than $39MM? (Assuming the franchise tag rules remain in tact after the new CBA.) After that, a third tag would be downright absurd – a 44% jump would cost upwards of $55MM for the 2022 season.

We’ve been fooled before, but all signs still point to a long-term accord between the QB and JJ. If the Cowboys are unwilling to top Wilson’s AAV, it’s possible that the two sides can meet in the middle on a three-year deal, which would allow Prescott to cash in at untold levels when he’s 30 years of age and the league’s revenue climbs even higher. Or, maybe they’ll cave and give Prescott just enough to edge Wilson on a four-year deal and claim victory. In any case, the Cowboys do not want to wait for Patrick Mahomes to land his next deal, which could top $40MM per annum. And, failing all of that, a tag is surely coming.

Prescott, technically speaking, is due for free agency in March, but we’d be shocked if he gets there.

Prospect Profile: Joe Burrow

January 28th, 2020 at 8:26am CST by Zachary Links

The Bengals have roughly three months to figure out who they’ll take with the No. 1 overall pick, but many are convinced that their selection has already been made. Quarterback Joe Burrow, who is coming off of a ridiculous season at LSU, may be a lock for Cincinnati.

Today, Burrow stands as the consensus top QB in this year’s class. But, in the summer, that wasn’t exactly the case. Scouts long drooled over the potential of Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, and Jake Fromm while Burrow seemed to be on the tier below. But, thanks to Tagovailoa’s hip injury and Burrow’s meteoric rise, the landscape shifted drastically.

The former Ohio State backup debuted as LSU’s starter in 2018 but threw for only 2,894 yards and 16 touchdown passes as a junior. Then, in 2019, Tigers passing-game coordinator (and new Panthers OC) Joe Brady helped him rise to a whole ‘nother level. Burrow threw for 5,671 yards, 60 touchdowns (!), and lobbed just six interceptions en route to a National Championship and the Heisman trophy.

The numbers have generated headlines, but execs are equally impressed by Burrow’s intangibles.

“Burrow just has it. You can’t coach it; you can’t develop it. Some guys just have it,” one longtime QB coach told Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller in November. “Baker Mayfield has it. Gardner Minshew has it. The difference is that Burrow has better size than both and a much better arm than Minshew.”

There are few knocks on Burrow, but no prospect is perfect. Among the (minor) concerns – Burrow’s limited track record of excellence. A highly-touted prospect out of high school, Burrow found himself mostly buried behind J.T. Barrett and Dwayne Haskins at Ohio State. It wasn’t until 2018 that he got his first crack at starting with LSU, and his numbers didn’t exactly jump off of the page. Then, in 2019, he was unstoppable. Someone playing devil’s advocate with Burrow would probably start here – Burrow’s game tape is excellent, but most of it comes from one season of work.

There’s also the matter of Burrow’s arm strength – he can’t air it out like Herbert and he doesn’t have a Kyle Boller fastball in his arsenal. Still, execs everywhere say that Burrow has the overall makeup to offset those limitations.

The Bengals will do their due diligence on every top prospect in this year’s crop, and they may even listen on trade inquiries, but all signs are pointing to Burrow as the top pick in April.

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