Cohen Predicts Where Top Free Agents Land
Andrew Cohen of OverTheCap.com has been following free agency very closely, giving updates on the cap situations of every NFL team and details on current player contracts. Earlier today, he took a break from crunching numbers to examine the possible destinations on some of the league’s top free agents. After outlining the effective cap space of each NFL team, which takes into account the amount of money they would have to pay their draft selections, he shows a picture of where some of the biggest names could land.
Of his top ten free agents, he sees more than half of them returning to their teams in 2014, either via long-term contract or because of the franchise tag. Some of those players we already thought would end up with extensions or playing next year under the tag,
However, he does see a few key players changing uniforms this offseason, finding some big money with a new franchise:
- Cohen predicts Panthers‘ star Greg Hardy finding a team that run a 4-3 defense and has some cap room, such as the Raiders or Jaguars.
- The top receiver this offseason, Eric Decker has already been linked to Cleveland by Cohen earlier this offseason, and the Browns are still thought to be a front runner for his services, along with the Jets.
- Bengals‘ pass rusher Michael Johnson played under the franchise tag in 2013, and is unlikely to be tagged again. Cohen could see the Falcons cutting Osi Umenyiora and plugging Johnson into his role.
- Because of the Steelers‘ cap woes, Cohen does not think they will have the opportunity to offer Jason Worilds a contract comparative to what he would get on the open market. For that reason, he sees the pass rusher leaving for greener pastures. According to Cohen he might not have to leave the state, as he sees the Eagles 3-4 defense as a perfect landing spot for the outside linebacker.
AFC North Notes: Whitworth, Steelers, Hood
Earlier, we took a look around the AFC South, so let’s head north for a few more notes:
- Bengals coach Marvin Lewis hopes the questions about Andrew Whitworth‘s position along the offensive line end soon, according to ESPN.com’s Cole Harvey. “Too much has been made of it,” said Lewis. “Andrew Whitworth has said many times during the season he’ll play where he needs to play to make the football team win…” Whitworth, who has primarily been a left tackle throughout his career, moved to left guard as part of line shuffling due to injuries. He excelled at guard, and if the team re-signs Anthony Collins to play tackle, Whitworth could move there permanently.
- Though cornerback is thought to be the most pressing need on defense, the Bengals will not reach for one if a better player at a different position is available to them in the draft, new defensive coordinator Paul Guenther tells Bengals.com’s Geoff Hobson. Guenther also stated that the defensive scheme won’t change much, but he will employ multiple fronts in order to get better matchups.
- The increase in the salary cap could allow the Steelers to delve into the free agent market, reports Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The team usually shies away from spending on free agents; in fact, they haven’t signed a free agent starter since safety Ryan Clark in 2006.
- The Steelers have three free agents at defensive end, and Ziggy Hood is likely to draw the most interest from other teams, writes Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The other two, Brett Keisel and Al Woods, could be easier to re-sign.
- Offensive lineman Mike Adams and Marcus Gilbert, each of whom has struggled, could flourish under new offensive line coach Mike Munchak, says Scott Brown of ESPN.com in his latest mailbag.
- The Ravens are talking with linebacker Daryl Smith about a potential reunion, writes Garrett Downing of BaltimoreRavens.com.
- Receiver Deonte Thompson‘s arrest is just the latest in a line of recent gaffes by Ravens that have tarnished the team’s image, argues ESPN.com’s Jamison Hensley.
Ravens Rumors: Pitta, Monroe, Jones, Draft
We’ve passed along a couple Ravens updates from the combine already today, but Aaron Wilson’s latest piece for the Baltimore Sun includes so many notable nuggets on the team that we’ll need a new post to round them all up. Let’s dive in….
- The Ravens are in discussions with tight end Dennis Pitta and offensive tackle Eugene Monroe about new contracts, and coach John Harbaugh is optimistic about locking up both players. “To my knowledge, both of those guys really want to be here and we really want them here,” Harbaugh said. “That’s a good formula for working things out.”
- If the Ravens tag Pitta as their franchise player, he’s expected to file a grievance to try to get the wide receiver tag, a source tells Wilson.
- Harbaugh didn’t close the door on the possibility of bringing back both Monroe and Michael Oher, though a previous report suggested Oher is unlikely to return if Monroe re-signs.
- Defensive tackle Arthur Jones is expected to receive heavy interest on the open market, and may be too expensive for the Ravens, as Harbaugh acknowledges: “It’s probably the one contract that he’ll have a chance to sign, a real big one. Guys that sign two big contracts, that’s very unusual. Three almost never happens, so you never feel bad about a guy getting an opportunity. You never want to lose a good player. But from a personal standpoint, you have to feel good about that. Whether we can match that or not, that’s all in the math.”
- The Ravens will meet with Boston College running back Andre Williams, who also has meetings scheduled with the Jaguars, Bills, and Bengals, tweets Wilson.
- Arizona running back Ka’Deem Carey also met with the Ravens, as well as the Steelers, at the combine, tweets Wilson.
AFC North Notes: Sanders, Cap, Weeden, Draft
The Steelers are prepared to let receiver Emmanuel Sanders test free agency, and do not expect to retain him, according to Scott Brown of ESPN.com. Steelers GM Kevin Colbert expounded on Sanders’ value, and noted “where he goes in free agency and what his market is we don’t know at this point, but he certainly performed for us last year, and we’ll see where it is in the future.”
Sanders had a nice season as a complementary receiver to Antonio Brown, catching 67 passes for 670 yards and six touchdowns. However, the Steelers don’t have much cap room with which to work, and they believe Markus Wheaton is ready to step into the number-two role. Our own Luke Adams put Sanders in the second tier of free agent receivers, and speculated that the Patriots could be interested in his services (as they were last season when they signed to him to an offer sheet, which the Steelers then matched), while we have also learned that the Jets covet Sanders.
Other news from the AFC North:
- The increased salary cap might benefit the Steelers even more than other teams, writes Brown in a separate article. With the team looking to shed salary in any way possible, the slight bump will be very beneficial. The Steelers will look to clear cap space by releasing several players as well as restructuring contracts, perhaps including that of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
- The new salary cap could also be a boon to the Bengals, as they look to re-sign two key free agents. With the 5% increase, the team might be able to retain both defensive end Michael Johnson and offensive tackle Anthony Collins, reports Cole Harvey of ESPN.com.
- A decision on much-maligned Browns quarterback Brandon Weeden will be coming soon, according to Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. The 30-year-old Weeden is widely expected to be released, though it was rumored that he has requested a trade. Whether the Browns could garner even a late-round pick for him remains to be seen.
- Browns GM Ray Farmer knows what he wants in quarterback, and needs to find out if any of the top QBs in the draft fit the bill, writes ESPN.com’s Pat McManamon. “I truly believe that a guy being able to accurately throw the football, make quick decisions and process and throw from what I call a quote-unquote crowded pocket,” said Farmer. “Guys who can play in those instances [have] critical factors in my mind of what the quarterback needs to be able to demonstrate he can do.”
- The Ravens could look to add either a wide receiver or an offensive tackle in the first round of the draft, and Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun goes over some of the available options.
Combine Updates: Bucs, Titans, Bears, Lions
The 2014 scouting combine is underway in Indianapolis, and NFL head coaches and general managers have begun speaking to reporters both in scheduled press conferences and in smaller side interviews. There have been several tidbits worth passing along from those sessions, so let’s dive right in and round up a few highlights….
- While Lovie Smith said he likes Mike Glennon, the Buccaneers head coach also expressed a belief that there could be a potential franchise quarterback available with the No. 7 pick in the draft, as Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times details. If that’s the case, it sounds like the Bucs will strongly consider drafting a signal-caller in the first round.
- Steelers GM Kevin Colbert didn’t reveal much about his team’s offseason plans, but was enthusiastic in discussing 2014’s draft class. While he cautioned that it’s an immature group due to all the underclassmen in the mix, Colbert said it’s the best class he has even seen, according to Alan Robinson of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (Twitter link). As Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star notes (via Twitter), that’s very high praise coming from Colbert, who has been preparing for drafts for the last 30 years.
- Colbert’s comments on wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders suggested to the Boston Herald’s Jeff Howe that the Steelers intend to let Sanders hit the open market.
- Asked about running back Chris Johnson, a potential cap casualty, Titans GM Ruston Webster said that the club can be as patient as it wants to be in making a decision on Johnson, tweets Jim Wyatt of the Tennessean. Webster also confirmed that the Titans have spoken to cornerback Alterraun Verner‘s agent about a new contract, adding that “we’ll continue to talk” (Twitter link via Wyatt).
- The Bears would like to re-sign free agent defensive lineman Henry Melton, GM Phil Emery indicated to reporters, including Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com (Twitter link). However, it’s clear that it will come down to Melton’s price tag. Emery also echoed coach Marc Trestman‘s views on Chris Conte, suggesting that he hopes the safety comes in and wins a starting job (Twitter link via Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune). “I’d like to be talking to him about an extension,” Emery said of Conte.
- Lions head coach Jim Caldwell said “never say never” when it comes to re-signing recently released safety Louis Delmas, but didn’t sound optimistic about the possibility, says Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). Caldwell added that acquiring a wide receiver to complement Calvin Johnson will be one of the club’s top priorities this offseason, according to Tim Twentyman of DetroitLions.com (Twitter link).
- The Cardinals would like to re-sign linebacker Karlos Dansby but have always been prepared to move on, GM Steve Keim said today, according to Darren Urban of AZCardinals.com (Twitter link).
AFC North Notes: Cotchery, Ravens, Rice
Earlier today, we learned that center Alex Mack has some questions for the Browns before he discusses re-signing with them. “I think the most important thing is Alex really would want to meet the coaches,” agent Marv Demoff said. “He was pretty close to [former offensive line coach George] Warhop, and liked [former head coach Rob] Chudzinski. Everything he had in Cleveland is changed. Warhop was a constant for five years. He’s gone. There’s a different head coach, different offensive coordinator, different offensive line coach. If you’re looking at this from an intelligent point of view, there’s more to it than money. You have to believe in what you’re doing. I want Alex first to be able to sign off and say I’m fine with all the changes and where they’re headed.” Tonight’s look at the AFC North..
- Free agent Jerricho Cotchery has switched agents, going from Jack Scharf to Brian Levy of Goal Line Football, according to Liz Mullen of Sports Business Journal (on Twitter). Last year with the Steelers, the 31-year-old hauled in 46 catches for 602 yards and ten touchdowns. It was Cotchery’s highest yardage total since 2009 with the Jets and his first 16-game season since 2008.
- The Ravens are in a lose-lose situation with running back Ray Rice, writes ESPN.com’s Jamison Hensley. If the Ravens stand by Rice in the face of the ugly allegations, they’re going to face increasing pressure from fans and negative media attention to cut him. If the Ravens cut Rice, they will lose a significant chunk of their salary cap as they try to rebound from their disappointing 8-8 season.
- The Ravens have reached out to left tackle Eugene Monroe about re-signing him to a new deal, but Monroe notes that it’s “still early” in the process, writes Matt Zenitz of the Carroll County Times.
Extra Points: Roberts, Fitzpatrick, Steelers
Andre Roberts doesn’t sound bullish about the possibility of returning to the Cardinals for 2014, suggesting during an appearance on SiriusXM NFL Radio that there may not be “enough balls to go around out here” (link via Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com). Roberts will be looking for a four- or five-year contract this offseason, but will be willing to sign a one-year, make-good deal, according to Weinfuss. The receiver also sounds like he’s looking forward to testing the open market.
“I’m pretty excited about the whole free-agency process,” Roberts said. “I’m looking forward to seeing what’s coming for the rest of my career.”
Here’s more from across the NFL:
- Titans backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick could be cut this offseason if the team wants to create a little cap flexibility, but he tells John Glennon of the Tennessean that he’s not worried about that possibility.
- Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk believes there’s at least an outside chance that a grievance over Jimmy Graham’s franchise-tag position could result in the Saints star becoming an unrestricted free agent, as he explained in a piece this morning. Taking that possibility into account, Florio thinks the Saints ought to tag Graham and push for resolution sooner rather than later.
- With a grievance over Graham’s position likely looming, Pat Kirwan of CBSSports.com takes a look at how the NFL could make franchise-tag positional designations more logical. In Kirwan’s view, the league and the NFLPA should agree on several adjustments to the system, including adding new designations for fullbacks and kick returners, and dividing offensve linemen and wide receivers into multiple groups.
- Appearing on 93.7 The Fan in Pittsburgh, Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert echoed comments made by team president Art Rooney II last month, suggesting that the franchise wants to re-sign Ben Roethlisberger and ensure that he remains a Steeler for the rest of his career. ESPN.com’s Scott Brown has the quotes and the details.
- In an interesting piece for the National Football Post, Jack Bechta explains how agents help their clients prepare for the draft combine.
AFC North Notes: Mack, Collins, Pitta
With the changes in the Browns‘ front office this offseason, the status of Alex Mack‘s free agency has wavered back and forth. While Mack was once unlikely to remain with the team, Nate Ulrich of the Beacon Journal writes that the Browns are focused on re-signing their center. The team would like to do so without having to use the franchise tag, which would carry a price tag of over $11MM for an offensive lineman. Here are other notes from the AFC North:
- The Bengals would like to retain both left tackle Anthony Collins and safety Taylor Mays, writes Joe Reedy of the Enquirer. They also would like to be able to bring back both players on long term deals without having to exercise the franchise tag.
- The Ravens and tight end Dennis Pitta are reportedly “far apart” in contract negotiations, according to Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun. The Ravens could franchise Pitta if a long-term contract is not agreed upon, but there will be contention over whether Pitta is considered a tight end or wide receiver, much like the situation with Jimmy Graham in New Orleans.
- Many draft pundits have the Steelers selecting Louis Nix of Notre Dame with the 15th overall pick, but it could be a reach according to Alan Robinson of TribLive.com. Nose tackle Steve McLendon only played a third of the Steelers’ defensive snaps in 2013, but Robinson does look to advanced stats to see that McLendon was better than he was thought to be.
DB Notes: Delmas, Finnegan, Ward
Saftey Louis Delmas will start off his free agent tour by meeting with the Steelers, according to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. Delmas, 26, was released by the Lions on February 13. After missing time due to injuries in 2011-12, Delmas played all 16 games in 2013, finishing with 64 tackles and three interceptions, while grading out better against the pass than the run, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Steelers‘ interest derives from two factors: the impending free agency of Ryan Clark, and the contract of Troy Polamalu. Clark is 34 years old and struggled last season, and while Polamalu is still playing at a high level, he has a cap number of approximately $10.9MM, and was listed among Joel Corry’s list of pay cut candidates. Florio suggests that signing Delmas could give the Steelers leverage when asking Polamalu to reduce his salary.
A few more notes regarding defensive backs:
- Rams cornerback Cortland Finnegan struggled mightily last season, ranking as the second-worst corner in the league according to Pro Football Focus, and NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport speculates he could be a candidate for release (via Twitter). Cutting Finnegan would save the Rams $4MM against the cap.
- Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com responded to Rapoport’s tweet, and noted that Finnegan is guaranteed $3MM in base salary, so asking him to take a pay cut, at least initially, would make the most fiscal sense.
- Sheil Kapadia of PhillyMag.com has an extensive breakdown of safety T.J. Ward using All-22 footage, and speculates he could be a fit for the Eagles. Ward played under Eagles coach Chip Kelly while at Oregon.
- Continuing the Eagles-safety theme, Phil Sheridan of ESPN.com takes a look at several options to improve the defensive backfield woes in Philadelphia.
- While there will be much interest in Ward, the Browns don’t intend to let him get away, according to Tony Grossi of ESPNCleveland.com.
AFC Notes: Steelers, Patriots, Browns
There has been a great deal of speculation regarding what the Steelers will do with their talented duo of LaMarr Woodley and Jason Worilds, but Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette gives the most definitive prediction to date. He writes that “it is just not conceivable” that the team will be able to retain both players for the 2014 season, and he believes Woodley will be odd-man out. By cutting Woodley now, the Steelers would suffer a $14.17MM cap hit this year, which is not significantly more than the $13.59MM hit they would take if they kept him. Plus, after 2014, he would be off the books entirely, which is a tantalizing prospect for a team that has backed itself into a difficult salary-cap situation.
Of course, as has been noted previously, Pittsburgh could designate Woodley as a post-June 1 release, which would spread out the $14.17MM hit over the 2014 and 2015 seasons and give the team an extra $8MM to spend this year. However, that $8MM would not become available until after June 1, which would limit what the Steelers could do in free agency (either with their own free agents or with those from other clubs). Whichever route the team takes, Bouchette believes Woodley has played his last game as a Steeler.
Other notes from the AFC:
- Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette believes the Steelers will not re-sign Emmanuel Sanders, and Christopher Price of WEEI.com thinks the Patriots would take another shot at Sanders if he is, in fact, still available when free agency begins in March. New England, of course, signed Sanders to an offer sheet last offseason when he was a restricted free agent, prompting Pittsburgh to match the offer to retain the speedy wideout. If New England were to re-sign Julian Edelman, then the Patriots would likely not pursue Sanders, as the two players offer similar skill-sets. But if Edelman finds greener pastures elsewhere, Sanders may become a top free-agent priority for New England.
- Meanwhile, Karen Guregian of the Boston Herald thinks that, now the Larry Fitzgerald-to-New England dream is dead, the Patriots will not look outside its own roster to find the big-play outside receiver the team covets. The answer, she writes, could be second-year man Aaron Dobson, who has all the physical tools and who looked better and better as the 2013 season progressed.
- In a recent Q & A with Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com, new Browns GM Ray Farmer indicates that he has a favorite quarterback in this year’s draft class, but that quarterback may not be Johnny Manziel. In fact, Farmer said the QB he likes “may not be the name that everybody thinks is the latest, greatest, and the easy one to spot,” and he suggested that Cleveland’s No. 4 overall pick may be too high for this unnamed player. Farmer is already adept at “GM-speak,” as the rest of his answers consisted primarily of the vague generalities one would expect from a high-ranking executive at this time of the year, but his musings about his favorite QB are nonetheless intriguing.