49ers’ DeMeco Ryans Expected To Land HC Job In 2023
Although Brock Purdy has played better than most expected to start his QB1 run in San Francisco, this year’s Mr. Irrelevant has a fairly wide margin for error thanks to the 49ers’ No. 1-ranked defense. The team will enter its Week 15 game in Seattle ranked first in total defense and points allowed.
The 49ers are not anticipating the architect of this unit will be with the team much longer. The expectation among the 49ers and around the league is DeMeco Ryans will be a head coach in 2023, Adam Schefter of ESPN.com tweets. Ryans has been San Francisco’s defensive coordinator for the past two seasons, taking over for Robert Saleh.
San Francisco has lost one of its coordinators to a head-coaching position in each of the past two offseasons, losing Saleh to the Jets in 2021 and Mike McDaniel to the Dolphins this year. The 49ers collected two third-round picks for each hire and would stand to do the same in the event Ryans, 38, lands a gig. The NFL updated its Rooney Rule policy stipulating any team that sees one of its minority assistant coaches or front office staffers hired as a head coach or GM, respectively, would obtain two third-round choices from the league.
This would be a rapid rise for Ryans, who only wrapped his playing career in 2016. A year later, he landed on Kyle Shanahan‘s first staff as a quality control coach. Shanahan was with the Texans during part of Ryans’ time as a Houston linebacker, and the 49ers assistant has long been viewed as a potential future head coach. The 49ers’ defensive performance this season may well make that happen before Ryans turns 40. Ryans interviewed with for the Vikings’ HC job this year but turned down a second meeting; he also drew interest from the Raiders.
Despite injuries to key personnel on all three levels, the 49ers have maintained their No. 1 defensive ranking for most of this season. In allowing 15.2 points per game, they lead the second-place Bills by nearly two points. Only the 2019 Patriots (14.4) have bettered this mark over a full season since 2014. The 49ers, who ranked 17th in scoring defense during Ryans’ first DC season, have only allowed 14 second-half points over the past six games.
Teams have gravitated toward offense-oriented coaches in recent years. Four DCs received bumps to head jobs this year, but three were promoted from within. Saleh, however, has helped elevate the Jets this year. That will not hurt Ryans’ chances of making the jump. He could have a few options in the offseason, depending on how the 49ers’ defense sticks closes out the season. If Ryans does follow Saleh and McDaniel’s lead, Vic Fangio is viewed as a prime candidate to replace him. Fangio was San Francisco’s DC from 2011-14, helping the team form top-tier defenses during that span. Fangio expects to return to the NFL as a coordinator.
Tom Brady Unlikely To Play For Bucs In 2023
Although Tom Brady has taken steps back this season, the prospect of the unretired superstar again postponing retirement and playing in 2023 is on the table. It is not expected a Brady age-46 season would transpire in Tampa.
It is “widely assumed” around the NFL Brady’s Tampa Bay stay is winding down, Jason La Canfora of the Washington Post notes, and SI.com’s Albert Breer adds it is likely the 23rd-year veteran retires or plays for another team in 2023. The Bucs did not consider trading Brady’s rights during his short retirement, but via the 2021 extension he signed, Brady is set to be a free agent in March.
Brady agreed to a 2022 restructure, helping the Bucs’ cap situation but preventing them from using their franchise tag on him next year. If the Bucs fail to extend Brady before his contract expires in March, they would carry a $35.1MM dead-money hit in 2023.
Signing a quarterback ahead of his age-43 season in 2020, the Bucs were not exactly preparing to play the long game here. The Brady signing helped produce the franchise’s second Super Bowl championship, and he led the league in passing yards last season. While this year has brought a stream of Brady headlines and reduced production, the Bucs going QB shopping — as they did briefly this year — in 2023 would still bring a major change for the franchise.
Brady, 45, both retired and unretired between the Bucs’ divisional-round loss and free agency. He was then the centerpiece of another team losing a first-round pick, with the Dolphins’ pursuit of a Brady-Sean Payton package leading to the loss of two draft choices. Brady agreed to a massive FOX deal to be their lead analyst when he retires, made a strange mid-training camp exit and was recently part of the most public divorce in NFL history. All the while, Bruce Arians stepped down shortly after Brady agreed to return to the team.
This avalanche of headlines preceded what has been a disappointing Bucs season. Tampa Bay (6-7) still leads the NFC South, but this is one of the worst divisions in NFL history. Brady’s QBR (51.0) ranks 23rd — a steep decline from his second-place finish (73.1) in 2021 — and La Canfora adds friction between he and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich exists. Philosophical differences between Brady and Leftwich have dated back to last season, JLC notes. Leftwich has been the Bucs’ play-caller throughout Brady’s tenure, though Arians obviously held considerable influence during his time on the sidelines.
This is certainly interesting, considering the reported Brady-Arians rift was connected to the latter’s decision to step away (though, Arians has denied this consistently). But the post-Arians Bucs have struggled consistently on offense; they have dropped from second to 28th in scoring from 2021 to this season. Were it not for Brady-led comebacks that downed the Rams and Saints, the team would be 4-9.
Brady long hoped to play until 45, but he has recently kept the door open to venturing further into uncharted (non-kicker division) waters. If the Bucs are drifting out of the picture for a Brady age-46 season, some teams previously connected to the legendary passer may be back in the mix soon. The 49ers, who have just seen Jimmy Garoppolo go down with another major injury, are again being tied to the Bay Area native, and La Canfora mentions the Raiders and Dolphins as other teams who could consider Brady. Brady was connected to the 49ers in 2020 and, briefly, this year, while it has been reported Brady’s reference to “that mother——“ (regarding his 2020 free agency) meant Derek Carr. Brady-to-Miami happening after this year’s penalties would cause quite the firestorm. When asked Sunday if the Bucs-49ers game would be his last time playing in the Bay Area, Brady responded (via the San Francisco Chronicle’s Michael Silver) “I don’t know; I don’t know.”
Rob Gronkowski said Brady calling it quits and joining him at FOX “may be the best option.” Brady agreed to a 10-year, $375MM deal with the network this offseason. Considering how driven the seven-time Super Bowl champion has been in extending his career, it would surprise if he does not consider his options in free agency. But he does have a lucrative fallback option.
“That may be the best option,” Gronkowski told USA Today’s Mackenzie Salmon (via Bucs Wire). “He’s definitely, you know, he’s a free agent. He can weigh out every option, whatever team he wants to play for, or if he wants to go in that booth and come join me, and we can be, you know, the tag team champions in the world.”
49ers Expect Deebo Samuel To Return In Regular Season
DECEMBER 13: Shanahan expects Samuel to miss around three weeks, Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. Considering the trouble the 49ers have had with MCL sprains, a possible Week 18 return would represent a big victory for the team. The 49ers face the Seahawks, Commanders and Raiders over the next three weeks. They close the regular season with a home game against the Cardinals.
DECEMBER 12: Deebo Samuel will miss time for the 49ers, and an update Monday indicated the 2021 All-Pro is dealing with multiple injuries. But the team is expecting him to come back before the regular season ends.
The recently extended wideout/running back moonlighter suffered an MCL sprain and a sprained ankle, Matt Barrows of The Athletic tweets. While the 49ers have encountered extensive trouble with MCL sprains this season, it appears Samuel has run into a fairly mild one.
Kyle Shanahan mentioned Sunday this could be a high ankle sprain, but reports Monday have left the word “high” out of the equation. High ankle sprains can linger for several weeks, and the 49ers have seen MCL sprains sideline multiple players for more than a month this year — Elijah Mitchell, Azeez Al-Shaair, Colton McKivitz. Samuel suffering both an MCL sprain and a high ankle issue would seemingly threaten his playoff availability, so it certainly represents good news a regular-season return is expected.
Samuel has a history of significant injuries, having suffered a foot fracture during the 2020 offseason and later that year running into multiple bouts of hamstring trouble. While 2020 effectively turned into a lost season for Samuel (and other 49ers), he bounced back to play 19 games last season. Samuel, 26, zoomed to All-Pro status in 2021, providing tremendous help to the 49ers’ backfield in addition to his receiving duties. After a 59-carry 2021, the former second-round pick has logged 41 carries this year. He suffered the injury on a handoff up the middle.
The 49ers placed a considerable bet on Samuel this offseason, inking him to a three-year extension worth $71.55MM. This situation transformed in the team’s favor, after Samuel requested an offseason trade. He returned to the team and is pairing with fellow stars George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey in a rare three-All-Pro skill-position armada. Kittle and McCaffrey have extensive injury pasts as well, giving the 49ers risks to manage weekly.
San Francisco has lost Samuel and Jimmy Garoppolo over its past two games. The team is not expected to place Garoppolo on IR, due to the faint hope the veteran passer can return late in the playoffs and its IR situation having become complicated. Samuel should not be expected to land on IR, either, given the prospect he could return within the next month. The 49ers (9-4) are now up two games on the Seahawks in the NFC West. They already routed the surprising contenders in Week 2, when Garoppolo replaced an injured Trey Lance. A win Thursday would effectively lock up the division for San Francisco.
The 49ers also received good news on Brock Purdy, who battled through an oblique injury in Week 14. They are calling the rookie quarterback “day to day.” The team did lose defensive lineman Kevin Givens to an MCL sprain; Shahanan said the fourth-year contributor will be out a few weeks. Givens has worked as a starter in place of Javon Kinlaw, who remains on IR. The team has used the former as an 11-game starter this season.
An ex-UDFA, Givens has remained in the lineup since Arik Armstead‘s recent return. The 49ers are already down D-lineman Hassan Ridgeway; this Givens issue will further thin out their D-line interior. The team, which also lost veteran backup cornerback and special-teamer Dontae Johnson to an ACL tear, has maintained its No. 1 defensive ranking despite a spate of injuries. T.Y. McGill remains in the picture at D-tackle, but given the issues affecting Ridgeway and Givens, it should be expected the 49ers will make a move here soon.
NFL Practice Squad Updates: 12/12/22
Today’s practice squad updates:
Atlanta Falcons
- Signed: CB Javelin Guidry
Houston Texans
- Released: DL Brandin Bryant
Las Vegas Raiders
- Signed: G Jordan Meredith
San Francisco 49ers
- Signed: DL Michael Dwumfour
49ers WR Deebo Samuel Carted Off Field
In a dark spot during an otherwise phenomenal day for San Francisco, many thought the 49ers had lost one of their most-talented skill players to a serious injury, according to ESPN’s Field Yates. After his foot was pinned and twisted awkwardly underneath Buccaneers defensive lineman Rakeem Nunez-Roches, 49ers star wide receiver Deebo Samuel was carted off the field as many of his teammates consoled him.
After being tackled, Samuel initially stayed down on the ground clutching at his leg. He attempted to walk off the field himself before needing to be helped to a cart. The 26-year-old appeared to be crying as he left the field and early reports from the team classified it as a knee injury, casting horror into the hearts of many a 49ers fan. Later on, though, it was reported that Samuel actually suffered an ankle injury and that he “is believed to have avoided a major injury,” according to Tom Pelissero of NFL Network.
The update is welcome news for San Francisco who is already working with its third-string quarterback Brock Purdy after injuries to season-opening starter Trey Lance and backup Jimmy Garoppolo. Fortunately for the 49ers, Purdy has now led the team to two wins over teams that look to be headed to the playoffs, as of right now, and their good fortune continues if the reports that Samuel avoided major injury are confirmed. Head coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters that the team is not sure about the extent of the injury but that it is “most likely” a high-ankle sprain, and Samuel’s left ankle “is not broken,” according to ESPN’s Jeff Darlington.
If Shanahan’s comments are accurate, a high-ankle sprain typically necessitates a four- to six-week recovery. With four weeks remaining in the regular season, Samuel will have to count on Purdy and company to keep the team alive long enough for him to make a likely return in the postseason. Samuel has plenty of experience with in-season recoveries. He suffered a broken leg during his redshirt junior season at South Carolina and was ruled out for the rest of the season. It was later announced that Samuel was working his way towards a possible return later on in the season before being permanently sidelined by a sprained foot that he would suffer in rehab. He also began the 2020 NFL season on injured reserve before making a late-season debut. Samuel is clearly not one to throw in the towel.
Samuel is not nearly on pace to match his incredible production from last year. His failure to produce as much is mainly just a byproduct of teammate Brandon Aiyuk‘s breakout season. Samuel receiving fewer touches and targets has helped the 49ers offense to be more evenly spread between himself, Aiyuk, tight end George Kittle, and whoever is playing at running back, most recently Christian McCaffrey.
If Samuel indeed needs to miss extended time, the 49ers will be counting on Aiyuk, Kittle, and McCaffrey to continue propping their third-string quarterback up. The team will ask receivers Jauan Jennings and Ray-Ray McCloud to step up in Samuel’s absence and attempt to replace his production.
Buccaneers QB Tom Brady Open To Playing In 2023
In September, we heard that Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady would likely retire for good after the 2022 season. However, as Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero of NFL.com report, Brady is leaving all of his options on the table.
Thanks to a weak NFC South, the 6-6 Buccaneers are atop their division and are presently in line for a home playoff game. Brady himself has not played as well as he had during his first two seasons in Tampa, as his middling quarterback rating (91.6) and poor yards per pass attempt average (6.4) would suggest. But the 45-year-old passer is reportedly feeling better physically after playing through shoulder and finger ailments earlier in the season, and he has been asking for more competitive 1-on-1 reps in practice. And, after struggling through the first three quarters of the Bucs’ Week 13 victory over the Saints, Brady looked strong in directing the Bucs’ last-minute comeback victory, so there are reasons to believe that he can lead another deep postseason run.
Brady has long stated that his plan is to play through his age-45 season, and as he will turn 46 next August, a return to the field in 2023 would represent an extension of that timeline. Still, his competitive nature compelled him to terminate a brief retirement this offseason, so it stands to reason that the way in which the 2022 campaign ends will go a long way in determining his future plans. It’s also possible that his very public divorce from Gisele Bundchen this year may make him want to come back so that he can go through his final NFL season without family turmoil weighing on him.
Brady will be a free agent at season’s end, and as many teams are dealing with quarterback uncertainty, he could have plenty of options. Adam H. Beasley of Pro Football Network names the 49ers, Jets, Giants, and Raiders as possible landing spots, and given the affection that Brady has for the Buccaneers and their ownership, a return to Tampa cannot be ruled out. As Joel Corry of CBS Sports notes, if Brady plays for a different club in 2023, the Bucs will carry a $35.1MM dead money charge on their books (Twitter link).
Whenever he chooses to hang up his cleats, Brady has a 10-year, $375MM contract with Fox to look forward to.
49ers Do Not Plan To Place Jimmy Garoppolo On IR
DECEMBER 11: Despite the team’s decision to keep Garoppolo on the 53-man roster, there is little chance he plays again this season, as Ian Rapoport of NFL.com confirms. Rapoport hears that Garoppolo may not be ready to return to game action until three months from the date he suffered the injury, a timeframe that would put the quarterback at full strength when free agency in March, but not quite in time to have an impact on the 49ers’ fortunes this season.
DECEMBER 9: San Francisco has lost its top two quarterbacks this season — one to a season-ending ankle injury and the other to a foot ailment that is likely to end his season. While Trey Lance will not return before the 49ers’ offseason program, the door slightly ajar to Jimmy Garoppolo to factor into this season again.
Garoppolo avoided a Lisfranc injury, and a subsequent report indicated he will not need surgery. This would put a recovery in time for a return late in the playoffs on the table, though Kyle Shanahan did his best to minimize this scenario’s likelihood. But John Lynch said the team does plan to keep Garoppolo on its 53-man roster.
“What I can tell you, as of right now, we’re not going to move Jimmy to IR,” Lynch said during an interview with KNBR’s Paul McCaffrey and Markus Boucher (via 49erswebzone.com). “I think we’re just going to carry him on our roster, and we’re going to kind of see how this rehab process goes. There’s a natural healing process that has to take place.”
Lynch confirmed no tendon tears occurred but noted the team will not rush Garoppolo back to simply increase its chances of winning a sixth Super Bowl. The 49ers worked with Garoppolo on a trade this offseason, but the parties reached a solution in late August to reunite. Shanahan approached Garoppolo about the compromise shortly after training camp began, and after the longtime San Francisco starter did not find a trade partner, they agreed on a reunion. It appears the sides will work together and prioritize Garoppolo’s long-term interests after his latest injury as well.
Garoppolo’s restructure prevents the 49ers from franchise-tagging him in 2023. Barring an extension — which was in play prior to the injury — the 31-year-old passer is headed toward free agency come March. Still, Lynch did not slam the door shut regarding a January return. Garoppolo’s seven- to eight-week timetable would line up with either the divisional round or the NFC championship game.
“I think there was a lot of good news in that it wasn’t the Lisfranc. There weren’t torn tendons and all that,” Lynch said. “There’s a healing process that has to take place. How quickly it will heal, that’s in the good lord’s hands, and so we’ll sit back and see. I think we were encouraged, but I think Kyle also said it’s also highly unlikely. It’s a big ask.
“Jimmy’s got a really bright future and a lot of years in front of him. We’re not going to put him in a bad position. So we’ll continue to consult with the doctors and let them kind of guide that decision. But there was some encouraging news earlier this week.”
This will be a long time for the 49ers to carry a player on their active roster they do not deem likely to play again this season. San Francisco’s IR situation did become complicated a few weeks ago, however, and Elijah Mitchell‘s second MCL sprain this year will limit the NFC West leaders’ options regarding injury activations.
The 49ers have already activated Jimmie Ward, linebacker Curtis Robinson, Mitchell (after MCL sprain No. 1), Azeez Al-Shaair, tackle Colton McKivitz, defensive lineman Jordan Willis and Jason Verrett. After the league gave teams unprecedented freedom to activate players on and off IR in 2020 and ’21, it put an eight-activation cap on such moves this year. Players activated from teams’ PUP, NFI and IR lists are grouped together under this formula, giving the 49ers — who also have defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw on IR and just saw D-lineman Hassan Ridgeway suffer a pectoral strain that will cost him six to eight weeks — in a tight spot. Ridgeway remains on San Francisco’s active roster.
The 49ers signed Josh Johnson off the Broncos’ practice squad, bringing the team- and league-hopping QB back for a fourth time. But this year’s Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy, will be tasked with steering the ship to the playoffs. Garoppolo’s potential return will be a key NFC subplot during this span, should the 49ers remain alive by mid-January.
Minor NFL Transactions: 12/10/22
Here are the minor moves around the league in advance of the Week 14 slate of games:
Atlanta Falcons
- Signed off Titans’ practice squad: QB Logan Woodside
Baltimore Ravens
- Elevated: QB Anthony Brown, S Ar’Darius Washington
Buffalo Bills
- Elevated: WR John Brown
Carolina Panthers
- Activated from NFI list: DL Henry Anderson
- Waived: CB Tae Hayes
Cleveland Browns
- Elevated: S Mike Brown, LB Tae Davis
Dallas Cowboys
- Elevated: T Aviante Collins
- Placed on IR: CB Anthony Brown (story)
Denver Broncos
- Signed to active roster: T Quinn Bailey
- Elevated: G Netane Muti, LB Harvey Langi
Detroit Lions
- Signed to active roster: OL Ross Pierschbacher
- Elevated: LB Jarrad Davis, CB Jarren Williams
- Placed on IR: CB Chase Lucas
Houston Texans
- Elevated: WR Jalen Camp, QB Jeff Driskel
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Activated from IR: OLB K’Lavon Chaisson
- Elevated: LB Ty Summers
Kansas City Chiefs
- Elevated: WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette
Las Vegas Raiders
- Signed to active roster: C Hroniss Grasu
Los Angeles Chargers
- Signed to active roster: CB Kemon Hall
- Elevated: DL Christopher Hinton, S Raheem Layne
- Placed on IR: TE Richard Rodgers
Miami Dolphins
- Elevated: WR Freddie Swain
Minnesota Vikings
- Elevated: S Myles Dorn, CB Tay Gowan
New York Giants
- Elevated: DT Ryder Anderson, CB Zyon Gilbert
New York Jets
- Elevated: LB Marcell Harris
Philadelphia Eagles
- Elevated: LB Christian Elliss
San Francisco 49ers
- Elevated: RB Tevin Coleman, S Dontae Johnson
Seattle Seahawks
- Activated from PUP list: LB Jon Rhattigan
- Elevated: RB Godwin Igwebuike, WR Laquon Treadwell
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Activated from IR: LB K.J. Britt
- Elevated: WR Deven Thompkins, S Nolan Turner
Tennessee Titans
- Signed to active roster: WR Chris Conley, LB Jack Gibbens, CB Greg Mabin
- Activated from IR: WR Racey McMath, CB Josh Thompson
- Elevated: RB Julius Chestnut, CB Davontae Harris
- Placed on IR: LB David Long
- Released: DL Larrell Murchison, OL Jordan Roos
Workout Rumors: Rourke, Davidson
Canadian Football League quarterback Nathan Rourke is in the midst of a bit of a free agency tour, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN. Shortly after Rourke’s BC Lions were knocked out of the playoffs in mid-November, the 24-year-old announced that he was in communication with a number of NFL teams in regard to scheduling workouts.
Rourke played three years of college ball at Ohio after transferring from Fort Scott Community College. As a starter for all three years, Rourke was one of the country’s most electric dual-threat quarterbacks. He improved each year as a passer, finishing with a career total of 7,457 yards, 60 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions. His consistency as a runner is uncanny. In 2017, 2018, and 2019, Rourke ran the ball 137, 134, and 154 times respectively, for 912, 860, and 867 yards respectively. Over the three seasons he ran for 2,034 yards and 49 touchdowns. That’s 9,511 yards of total offense and 111 total touchdowns, when you include the two receiving touchdowns he had as a Bobcat.
Rourke went undrafted by the NFL but was the highest drafted quarterback for the CFL in almost 20 years. A rough first season in British Columbia saw Rourke serve mainly as a backup, only starting two games, and making some mistakes early in his career. He only threw three touchdowns to five interceptions, although he was able to add five touchdowns on the ground, as well. In his second year with the team, during the league’s 2022 season, Rourke became a full-time starter. In nine starts, Rourke completed 78.7-percent of his passes for 3,349 yards while throwing 25 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. He also added 304 yards and seven touchdowns with his legs.
After the Lions’ season ended with a third loss in four matchups this year against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, a few NFL teams reached out to the athletic quarterback. Rourke reportedly met with the Raiders last week, the Jaguars on Monday, and the Broncos on Tuesday.
Seeing as all three of those teams are set with starting quarterbacks on fairly recent deals, it’s worth point out that Rourke did audition for the Giants at wide receiver just prior to the CFL’s 2021 season. It’s also worth pointing out that the XFL has produced some NFL quarterbacks with limited success lately. Both Commanders backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke and Panthers backup quarterback P.J. Walker have earned playing time with their respective squads. Heinicke, who started most of the 2021 NFL season for Washington, took over the starting job this year for an injured Carson Wentz and has gone on to win five of his seven starts for the team. Walker took over the starting job for an injured Baker Mayfield before suffering an injury of his own.
This opens the door for the league to look outside of the traditional talent pools for a player as important as the backup quarterback. To say Rourke would be an upgrade over Jarrett Stidham, C.J. Beathard, or Brett Rypien is no guarantee, but it may be worth taking a look at the mobile, young quarterback.
Here’s another workout rumor about a very recent second-round pick who was recently released:
- Former Falcons defensive lineman Marlon Davidson visited the 49ers this week, according to Aaron Wilson of Pro Football Network. Through two and a half seasons in the league, Davidson has played in 19 games, only starting one. He’s only recorded one sack but has a fumble recovery and a 3-yard pick six off of Tom Brady to his ledger. Davidson has yet to play this season after being placed on injured reserve following arthroscopic knee surgery and was released in late October. Securing a visit with San Francisco may indicate that he’s healthy enough to find his way back to the field now.
Updated 2023 NFL Draft Order
The NFL now has its first teams eliminated from playoff contention. The Texans and Bears, as they essentially have been doing throughout this season, are playing for next year. Other eliminations will soon follow, as the league’s playoff picture heats up.
Through that lens, the 2023 draft order will become an increasingly more pertinent topic. The 2023 draft will present an interesting subplot near its outset. Traded picks are set to produce early selections for the Seahawks, Lions and Eagles. Each of those picks currently land in the top five, as the teams on the other end of those trades — the Broncos, Rams and Saints — have disappointed, spectacularly so in Los Angeles and Denver’s cases.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2022 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is how the draft order would look entering Week 14:
- Houston Texans: 1-10-1
- Chicago Bears: 3-9
- Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos)
- Detroit Lions (via Rams)
- Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints)
- Carolina Panthers: 4-8
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 4-8
- Arizona Cardinals: 4-8
- Indianapolis Colts: 4-8-1
- Atlanta Falcons: 5-8
- Green Bay Packers: 5-8
- Las Vegas Raiders: 5-7
- Houston Texans (via Browns)
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 5-7
- Detroit Lions: 5-7
- Los Angeles Chargers: 6-6
- New England Patriots: 6-6
- Washington Commanders: 7-5-1
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-6*
- Seattle Seahawks: 7-5*
- Tennessee Titans: 7-5*
- New York Jets: 7-5*
- New York Giants: 7-4-1*
- Denver Broncos (via 49ers through Dolphins)*
- Baltimore Ravens: 8-4*
- Cincinnati Bengals: 8-4*
- Dallas Cowboys: 9-3*
- Kansas City Chiefs: 9-3*
- Minnesota Vikings: 10-2*
- Buffalo Bills: 9-3*
- Philadelphia Eagles: 11-1*
* = Denotes playoff team
The 2023 first round will resemble 2008 and 2016, when the Patriots were docked their Round 1 pick for their respective “gate” scandals. This year’s Dolphins saga never developed “gate” status, but the team lost a 2023 first-round pick and 2024 third-rounder due to the Tom Brady–Sean Payton tampering case. Thus, a 31-pick first round will commence.
While the Broncos, Rams and Browns lost their first-round picks due to trades for quarterbacks, the Saints passed theirs to the Eagles in this year’s pre-draft trade that allowed New Orleans a path toward moving up for Chris Olave. The No. 16 pick which was initially transferred from the Colts to the Eagles in 2021’s Carson Wentz trade was then moved to the Saints, netting Philadelphia a 2023 first-rounder and a 2024 second.