Dallas Robinson | Pro Football Rumors

Minor NFL Transactions: 8/15/17

By Dallas Robinson | at August 15, 2017 7:26 pm

Today’s minor moves:

Atlanta Falcons

Waived from injured reserve: RB/WR B.J. Daniels

Carolina Panthers

Waived from injured reserve: S Dean Marlowe

Dallas Cowboys

Signed: CB Dejaun Butler, CB John Green, TE M.J. McFarland, WR Corey Washington
Waived: OL Ruben Carter, WR Javontee Herndon, LB Lucas Wacha
Waived/injured: TE Connor Hamlett

Detroit Lions

Placed on injured reserve: DE Kerry Hyder, RB Mike James
Waived: G Matt Rotheram
Waived from injured reserve: WR Ryan Spadola

Green Bay Packers

Waived: DL Shaneil Jenkins

Indianapolis Colts

Signed: WR Justice Liggins
Waived/injured: RB Dalton Crossan

Los Angeles Chargers

Signed LB Kyle Coleman
Waived/injured: LB Mike Moore

Miami Dolphins

New York Giants

Signed: LB Steven Daniels

Philadelphia Eagles

Signed: CB Mitchell White

Giants Sign DL Bobby Richardson

By Dallas Robinson | at August 15, 2017 6:27 pm

The Giants have signed free agent defensive lineman Bobby Richardson and placed defensive tackle Corbin Bryant on injured reserve, the club announced today.

Richardson will now join his fifth NFL club, but he’s still only 24 years old. Although he didn’t see the field last season, Richardson did start 11 games (and made 15 appearances) for the Saints during his rookie campaign in 2015. During that season, he managed 40 total tackles and half-sack while playing on roughly half of New Orleans’ defensive snaps.

Since that time, Richardson has bounced around the league, seeing time on both offseason and practice rosters with the Redskins, Chiefs, and — most recently — the Broncos. Now with the Giants, Richardson will compete with Romeo Okwara, Devin Taylor, Avery Moss, Kerry Williams, and Ishaq Williams to earn a back-end roster spot.

Bryant, meanwhile, signed a one-year, minimum salary benefit deal with the Giants this offseason after spending the past five years in Buffalo. The 29-year-old only appeared in half of the Bills’ 2016 games before being sent to injured reserve with a shoulder injury. This time around, it’s a dislocated elbow that’s landing Bryant on IR, per Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com. Bryant could conceivably be released with an injury settlement at some point down the road, allowing him to latch on with another team.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Ryan Mathews

By Dallas Robinson | at August 15, 2017 5:29 pm

The Eagles finally ended the NFL’s longest charade today, releasing veteran running back Ryan Mathews months after it became clear they’d do so. Philadelphia had reason to wait, of course, as now that Mathews has received medical clearance, the club is off the hook for $1.15MM in injury protection.

Mathews, a first-round selection back in 2010, has mostly been defined by his lack of availability through seven NFL campaigns. He’s appeared in all 16 games just one time, and has missed roughly a quarter of the 112 total games in which he could’ve played. Additionally, Mathews is now on the wrong side of 30, and is hitting an age when some running backs break down.

Those negative attributes are obvious, but Mathews still has quite a bit to offer interested NFL clubs. In fact, he’s perhaps the perfect NFL backup running back. Here’s why:

Production

Given that Mathews has missed so much time during his career, it’s more informative to assess his production on a per-play basis rather than in the aggregate. Defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) is a Football Outsiders metric that measures value on a rate basis, and can be applied to either team or individual performance. In seven NFL seasons, Mathews has ranked among the top-20 running backs in DVOA five times, including a No. 3 finish in 2015. So while Mathews’ counting statistics might not be all that impressive (he’s crossed the vaunted 1,000-yard threshold only twice), he’s been extremely valuable when he’s been on the field.

Success rate is another Football Outsiders metric that’s often helpful when evaluating running backs, at it determines how well a back keeps an offense moving. In general, a run will deemed a success if a back gains 40% of the needed yards on first down, 60% of the needed yards on second down, and 100% of the needed yardage on third down.

Different situations can adjust those percentage tiers, but overall the formula is a good indicator of how well a back is keeping an offense “on schedule,” as Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com writes. Mathews grades incredibly well based on success rate: In his seven NFL campaigns, he’s finished as a top-25 back in success rate six times, and ranked among the top-10 twice (2013 and 2015).

While he’s not an above-average pass blocker, Mathews can be useful in the passing game. He’s averaged 26 receptions per season during his career, and even reached 50 catches in 2011. Since entering the league in 2010, Mathews ranks eighth among all running backs with a 79.3% catch rate on 226 targets, so he can be relied on as a passing game weapon. Fumbles have been an issue for Mathews, however, as he ranks first among NFL backs with 21 fumbles since 2010.

As a backup running back, Mathews would — by definition — see his touches reduced. Not only would that perhaps allow Mathews to stay healthy, but he can still remain productive when he is called upon. Not being asked to play starter’s snaps would help both Mathews and the team that signs him.

Scheme Fit

When the Eagles signed Mathews prior to the 2015 season, NFL Films producer Greg Cosell called him a “decisive downhill runner,” and Fran Duffy of PhiladelphiaEagles.com explained why those traits worked so well for what was — at the time — a zone-blocking-Eagles run game. But Mathews can conceivably fit in any number of offenses, as Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus explained to me.

“I think [Mathews] can be a useful member of a backfield,” said Monson. “I actually think he’s quite scheme diverse and pretty versatile as a back, so he should have options.”

Additionally, Mathews has played under a number of offensive minds who are still employed in various roles throughout the league. That list includes Mike McCoy (Broncos offensive coordinator), Rob Chudzinski (Colts OC), Pat Shurmur (Vikings OC), Hal Hunter (Browns offensive line coach), and Jason Michael (Titans quarterbacks coach), meaning there’s no shortage of offensive coaches who have firsthand experience with Mathews.

Cost

Coming off an injury-plagued season in 2014, Mathews landed a three-year deal worth $11MM ($5MM guaranteed) with the Eagles. As he hits free agency for the second time in his career, Mathews won’t come anywhere near that total: while he’s offered solid production on a rate basis over the past two seasons, he’s also two years older and just recovered from a serious neck injury.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise if Mathews can only score a minimum salary benefit deal in the coming weeks. Such a contract would allow a club to pay Mathews at the seven-year veteran rate of $900K while only using $615K in cap space. Mathews could also receive a signing bonus of up to $80K.

Recent contracts for veteran running backs include Jacquizz Rodgers (two years, $3.3MM), Robert Turbin (two years, $2.7MM), and Lance Dunbar (one year, $1.5MM). Dunbar is probably the best comparable given that he’s spent most of the past two seasons dealing with injuries and ineffectiveness, but he’s also three years younger than Mathews. Whichever team signs Mathews should plan on taking on an eminently affordable salary, and cap space won’t be a barrier.

Signing Mathews would also eliminate another potential opportunity cost — the draft pick capital it may require to trade for a running back. Earlier today, I examined several backs that could be dealt in the near future, including Carlos Hyde, Jeremy Hill, and T.J. Yeldon, all of whom are probably upgrades on Mathews, but all of whom will require the sacrifice of a draft pick. For clubs that aren’t inclined to trade away future value, signing Mathews would cost only money, not picks.

Market

Mathews became the best available free agent running back the second he was released by the Eagles. While other veteran options include Rashad Jennings, DeAngelo Williams, and James Starks, none offer the combination of talent and relative youth that does Mathews. Any team looking for running back help should instantly vault Mathews to their top of their free agent lists.

With that said, here’s a look at several clubs that could make sense as a landing spot for Mathews:

Baltimore Ravens: Kenneth Dixon was already going to miss the first four games of the season after being suspended, but now he’ll be sidelined for the entire 2017 campaign after undergoing knee surgery. Terrance West looks like Baltimore’s bell-cow, while Danny Woodhead will play on passing downs. Mathews could give the Ravens another viable option in the backfield, and Baltimore’s coaches “have a lot of respect for” Mathews, as Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun tweets.

Detroit Lions: On an NFL-low 350 rushing attempts, the Lions finished 27th in yards per carry, 25th in DVOA, and 31st in adjusted line yards last season. Detroit has already upgraded its offensive line by signing Ricky Wagner and T.J. Lang, but the club is still relying on Ameer Abdullah, Dwayne Washington, Zach Zenner, and free agent addition Matt Asiata at running back. The Lions have reportedly talked with Rashad Jennings, but Mathews is a better player.

Los Angeles Chargers: Back to where it all began? With new head coach Anthony Lynn in town, the Chargers figure to lean heavily on the run, meaning Melvin Gordon could need a breather every once in awhile. Los Angeles’ reserves behind Gordon — Kenneth Farrow, Branden Oliver, Kenjon Barner, Andre Williams — are nothing to write home about, so Mathews could help out, especially as a pass-catcher.

Miami Dolphins: Mathews makes sense for the Dolphins, opines Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald (Twitter link), especially given that Jay Ajayi is recovering from a concussion. Ajayi, who dealt with knee injuries in college, needs a solid backup behind him in case injury issues crop up again. Damien Williams and Kenyan Drake (also battling a concussion) are interesting players, but Mathews is a more known commodity.

New York Giants: Big Blue ranked 26th in rushing DVOA last season, and the only investment they’ve made at the running back position since has been fourth-round rookie Wayne Gallman. While the Giants have made noise about Paul Perkins serving as a three-down back, Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com reports Perkins “hasn’t blown anyone away” at camp, meaning the club could be searching for reinforcements.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Franchise-tagged running back Le’Veon Bell hasn’t yet reported to training camp, and while the Steelers may expect him to show up before the regular season starts, Pittsburgh might not want to rely too heavily on Fitzgerald Toussaint and rookie James Conner. Playing behind one the league’s best offensive lines, Mathews could have success with the Steelers.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

8 comments Baltimore Ravens Detroit Lions Los Angeles Chargers Miami Dolphins New York Giants PFR Originals Pittsburgh Steelers Ryan Mathews

Top 30 NFL Trade Candidates

By Dallas Robinson | at August 15, 2017 10:00 am

While the NFL isn’t a trade-happy league like the NBA or MLB, deals are becoming more common as each season progresses. Draft pick swaps will always dominate any listing of NFL trades, deals involving veteran players aren’t as rare as they once were. Seven trades involving veteran players have occurred since the draft ended — at this time last year, only one such deal had gone down. As Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap noted in his excellent salary cap book, Crunching Numbers, trades are likely to become ordinary as front offices are taken over by younger, more out-of-the-box thinkers.

The players listed below as trade candidates aren’t ranked in any specific order — rather, we’ve attempted a league-wide look at players who could conceivably be on the move in the coming weeks or months. Contract status, overall ability, scheme fit, age, and coaching staff alterations all play a role in value, and each trait was factored into the likelihood of an individual player being dealt.

As always, you can find PFR’s complete list of 2017 NFL Trades right here.

Quarterback

A.J. McCarron, Bengals
Brock Osweiler, Browns

Although the Bengals haven’t openly shopped A.J. McCarron, they haven’t completely sealed off the idea of dealing their backup quarterback. The asking price is extremely high, however, as Cincinnati reportedly wants a first-round draft choice for McCarron. An unidentified team offered a second-rounder for McCarron this offseason, and the Bengals declined, an indication of the value the club places on McCarron.

Most likely, Cincinnati will need an injury to strike — and a club to get desperate — in order to meet its demands. In 2016, for example, the Vikings shipped a first-round pick to the Eagles in exchange for Sam Bradford after incumbent signal-caller Teddy Bridgewater went down. That situation presented the perfect opportunity for Philadelphia to reap compensation for Bradford, as Minnesota was a contending team with an immediate need under center. Bradford offered much more NFL experience than does McCarron, so a trade of the Bengals No. 2 quarterback remains unlikely.

Brock Osweiler, meanwhile, has a chance to act as the Browns’ Week 1 starter, but he’s not a long-term option for a club that used a second-round pick on DeShone Kizer. Cleveland has already rejected at least one trade offer for Osweiler this offseason, but it simply doesn’t make sense for the team to retain him on their roster. Having already acquired a second-round choice in exchange for taking on Osweiler’s contract, the Browns should convert most of his base salary guarantee into a signing bonus (thus reducing the cap hit for any interested parties) and send him to a quarterback-needy club.

Running back

Jeremy Hill, Bengals
Carlos Hyde, 49ers
Matt Jones, Redskins
Charles Sims, Buccaneers
T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars

New coaching staffs and pending free agency are key factors in labeling a player a trade candidate, and Carlos Hyde fits into both those buckets. Reports near the draft indicated the new 49ers regime wasn’t sold on Hyde, who has just one year left on his rookie contract, and the club has added several running backs this year, including free agent Tim Hightower and draft choice Joe Williams. Squarely in the midst of a rebuild, San Francisco has no reason to hold onto Hyde if it doesn’t plan to re-sign him, and early indications are Hyde hasn’t been offered an extension.

Charles Sims could play a key role for the Buccaneers while Doug Martin is suspended for the first three games of the season, but his long-term role with Tampa Bay is unclear. General manager Jason Licht said earlier this year that Martin “looked as good as [he’s] ever seen him,” and I’d guess Martin will reclaim the Bucs’ starting job once he returns. Until that point, Tampa Bay could probably get by with a committee of Jacquizz Rodgers, Peyton Barber, and Jeremy McNichols if it decides it can get a draft pick for Sims, who is scheduled for free agency in 2018.

There are enough teams around the NFL looking for depth at running back that each of these backs should be able to create some sort of trade market. Speculative fits: Jeremy Hill, Giants; Hyde, Ravens; Matt Jones, Lions; Sims, Steelers; T.J. Yeldon, Chargers.

Wide receiver

Phillip Dorsett, Colts
Cody Latimer, Broncos

Despite being selected 29th overall just two years ago, Phillip Dorsett appears to be in danger of not earning a Colts roster spot. He’s behind former undrafted free agent Chester Rogers and free agent signee Kamar Aiken on Indianapolis’ depth chart, and new general manager Chris Ballard doesn’t have any allegiance to the former Miami wideout. Eric Galko of the Sporting News (Twitter link) suggested the Jets — who recently lost Quincy Enunwa for the year — could be a fit for Dorsett, while the Bills, 49ers, Panthers, and Browns also make some deal of sense.

Garrett Celek/Vance McDonald, 49ers
Zach Miller, Bears
Richard Rodgers, Packers

The Bears reportedly told rival teams at this year’s scouting combine they’d be open to trading Zach Miller if they drafted a tight end, and draft a tight end they did. Chicago selected Ashland’s Adam Shaheen in the second round, and also signed former Dolphins tight end Dion Sims to a three-year, $18MM deal. An acquiring club would take on $2.5MM by trading for Miller, with $1MM of that total tied to per-game roster bonuses. Given that the Bears like fellow tight end Daniel Brown (who is just 25 years old as opposed to Miller’s 31), they could be motivated to make a deal.

Vance McDonald, meanwhile, is potentially the most obvious trade candidate listed here, as 49ers general manager John Lynch admitted that he dangled McDonald in talks. Previous San Francisco GM Trent Baalke inked McDonald to a five-year, $35MM extension that begins in 2017, and other teams are unlikely to be interested in taking on that contract. And because the 49ers have so many tight ends, Garrett Celek might be available as well, as Jason La Canfora of CBSports.com hinted at Monday.

Unlike McDonald, Richard Rodgers hasn’t been mentioned in any trade rumors, so his inclusion is completely speculative. But the Packers made investments at tight end this offseason, signing both Martellus Bennett and Lance Kendricks to multi-year deals, and with Rodgers entering a contract year, Green Bay could conceivably look to move him. Kendricks is already playing ahead of Rodgers, per Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com, and has never spent time on special teams. The Packers don’t use two tight end sets much (just 12% of plays, 31st in the league), so rostering three offense-only tight ends may not work.

Offensive line

John Greco, Browns
Jason Kelce, Eagles

Offensive linemen are tough to acquire this late in the offseason given that continuity is such a large part of the front five, but trades do happen: Just last week, the Eagles shipped guard Allen Barbre to the Broncos, and he’s already taking starting snaps. Another Philadelphia lineman, center Jason Kelce, has been on the trade block for some time, but the Eagles may not want to make any more offensive line trades after moving Barbre. Kelce has four years remaining on his contract, but an acquiring club wouldn’t be taking on any guarantees. The Ravens, who desperately need help on the interior, should see if Kelce is still available.

Defensive line

Arik Armstead, 49ers
Star Lotulelei, Panthers
Steve McLendon, Jets
Sheldon Richardson, Jets

Any inkling the Panthers may have had to trade Star Lotulelei likely evaporated when fellow defensive tackle Vernon Butler suffered a knee sprain in Carolina’s first preseason contest. Even if Butler only misses a few games, the Panthers aren’t going to erode their defensive line depth by moving Lotulelei. That’s not to say dealing him wouldn’t be the right move for the long haul, though. Given that Carolina has already locked up Kawann Short to an extension, it will be hard-pressed to keep Lotulelei when his contract expires next spring.

Call it rebuilding, call it tanking — the Jets are not trying to win in 2017. Therefore, it makes so sense for Gang Green to keep defenders like Steve McLendon or Sheldon Richardson on the roster, especially if there’s a market for either player. General manager Mike Maccagnan‘s goal of acquiring some sort of substantial draft pick compensation is a fool’s errand, as no club is going to sacrifice a high pick for a mercurial pass rusher with effort and contract questions.

Either of McLendon or Richardson should be of interest to the Saints, who are still figuring out how to replace Nick Fairley. Other teams with needs along the defensive line include the Dolphins, Colts, Broncos, Raiders, Lions, and Packers, the latter of whom has recently lost Letroy Guion (release) and Montravius Adams (short-term injury).

Edge defender

Jeremiah Attaochu, Chargers
Adrian Clayborn/Brooks Reed/Derrick Shelby, Falcons
Kony Ealy, Patriots
Aaron Lynch, 49ers

Hat tip to Justis Mosqueda of Setting the Edge (Twitter link) for tossing out both Jeremiah Attaochu and Aaron Lynch as possible trade targets for the Lions, who on Sunday lost one of their best edge rushers in Kerry Hyder. Attaochu left the Chargers’ preseason game with a hamstring yesterday, so he may no longer be an option, but Lynch is an intriguing fit for Detroit. Still only 24 years old, Lynch managed 34.5 quarterback hurries as recently as 2015, per the 2017 Football Outsiders Almanac, but has since dealt with injuries and a suspension.

Listing all three of Adrian Clayborn, Brooks Reed, and Derrick Shelby is admittedly cheating, but the Falcons might have too many edge rushers. Depth is never a bad thing, to be sure, but Atlanta probably isn’t going to keep more than nine defensive linemen. Undrafted rookie J’Terius Jones has posted a solid showing during camp, according to Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com, and could make the final squad, meaning a veteran would likely get pushed out.

Kony Ealy posted the best game of his career in Super Bowl 50 as a member of the Panthers, but the former second-round pick has quietly been a disappointment during his three-year career. He’s managed only 14 total sacks, and performed terribly against the run in 2016, something Patriots head coach Bill Belichick won’t abide. New England essentially acquired Ealy for free, as it only moved down eight spots in the draft to pick up the 25-year-old. Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reported last week that Ealy is in a “legitimate fight” to earn a Patriots roster spot.

Linebacker

Stephone Anthony, Saints
Mychal Kendricks, Eagles
Reggie Ragland, Bills

Stephone Anthony and Mychal Kendricks have been visibly on the trade block for some time, but Reggie Ragland could conceivably be dealt out of Buffalo before he ever plays an NFL down. The Bills aren’t quite going full Jets just yet, but they’re clearly planning for the future, as they traded Sammy Watkins and Ronald Darby last week in exchange for lesser players and (more importantly) 2018 draft picks. Ragland, who was chosen in the second round a year ago and missed his entire rookie season with injury, is playing behind both Preston Brown and Gerald Hodges, and may not have a place in new head coach Sean McDermott‘s scheme.

Defensive back

Delvin Breaux, Saints
Kyle Fuller, Bears
Joe Haden, Browns
Trumaine Johnson, Rams
Kenny Vaccaro, Saints

Delvin Breaux admittedly wouldn’t have been on this list before a report indicating that the Saints are in fact shopping him, and while New Orleans has a bit more cornerback depth after selecting Marshon Lattimore in the first round, it doesn’t make much sense to trade Breaux when his value is at its lowest following an injury-plagued 2016 campaign. Vaccaro, on the other hand, is coming off his third excellent season in four years and has only one year left on his deal. If the Saints don’t reach an extension with him before the season, they could explore trading Vaccaro, especially after using second-round picks on Vonn Bell and Marcus Williams in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

The Rams have been discussing a Trumaine Johnson trade ever since placing the franchise tag on him in March, but despite reported interest from the Browns, Saints, and Steelers, no deal has been made. Johnson is now the league’s highest-paid corner after being franchised for two consecutive seasons, and Los Angeles doesn’t appear likely to retain him beyond 2017. Still, the Rams might be reticent to trade Johnson after dealing fellow corner E.J. Gaines to the Bills last week.

Kyle Fuller missed all of last season with a knee injury, and the Bears are counting on him for next season (or thereafter). Chicago signed free agents Prince Amukamara and Marcus Cooper this offseason, and subsequently declined Fuller’s 2018 fifth-year option. A rival club could be willing to take a chance on his draft pedigree, but his recent injury history could scare teams off.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason In Review: Atlanta Falcons

By Dallas Robinson | at August 14, 2017 9:29 pm

The Falcons suffered the most heartbreaking loss in Super Bowl history earlier this year, blowing a 28-3 lead to the Patriots after storming through the NFC bracket. Clearly, that defeat will stick with Atlanta and its fans for some time, but that shouldn’t take away from the excellent 2016 season the club posted. With most of a high-scoring offense (except for offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan) and a young, exciting defense returning, the Falcons’ offseason figured to be relatively quiet.

Notable signings:

Dontari Poe, DT: One year, $8MM. $7.5MM guaranteed.
Levine Toilolo, TE: Three years, $12MM. $4.5MM guaranteed.
Jack Crawford, DE: Three years, $9.9MM. $3MM guaranteed.
Matt Schaub, QB: Two years, $9MM. $2.5MM guaranteed.
Kemal Ishmael, S: One year, $2MM. $1MM guaranteed.
Andre Roberts, WR: One year, $1.8MM. $750K guaranteed. $500K available via incentives.
LaRoy Reynolds, LB: One year, $1.3MM. $250K guaranteed.
Courtney Upshaw, DL: One year, $1.15MM. $150K guaranteed. $200K available via incentives.
Taylor Gabriel, WR: One year, $2.746MM. Signed second-round RFA tender.
Derrick Coleman, FB: One year, $690K.
Blidi Wreh-Wilson, CB: One year, minimum salary benefit.

Boasting one of the more complete rosters in the NFL, the Falcons didn’t have many areas of weakness to be addressed during the free agent period. Ameliorating their run defense was one such focal point, however, as Atlanta ranked 28th in DVOA against the run. In a market where Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams received more than $20MM in full guarantees on multi-year contracts, the Falcons declined to overpay and landed Dontari Poe on a one-year, $8MM deal.

Poe certainly has his positive attributes: he’s young (26), durable (just two career missed games), athletic despite his 6’3″, 250-pound stature, and can rush the passer from the interior. But it’s unclear just how helpful Poe will be at stopping the run. Among 115 qualified interior defenders, Poe graded 87th in run defense, according to Pro Football Focus. The Chiefs, Poe’s former employer, ranked 30th in total adjusted line yards last season and dead last in yards middle of their defensive line. That’s not to place all the blame at Poe’s feet, but he played the most snaps of any Kansas City defensive lineman in 2016.

While the Poe signing was certainly defensible, Atlanta’s addition of former Cowboys defensive end Jack Crawford made little sense, at least at the required price. While he did an admirable job guiding Clarice Starling in her encounters with Hannibal Lecter, Crawford doesn’t provide much that the Falcons defensive line didn’t already have. He’s a remarkably similar player to incumbent options Adrian Clayborn and Courtney Upshaw, the latter of whom also re-signed with Atlanta this offseason. Crawford isn’t as talented as either of those players, however, and at a cost of $3.3MM annually, he’s earning a similar salary to that of Erik Walden, Connor Barwin, and Julius Peppers, all of whom I’d take over Crawford.

The Falcons didn’t need to add much to an offense that ranked first in DVOA last year, but they did bring back two key insurance pieces: quarterback Matt Schaub and tight end Levine Toilolo. Now in his second stint as a backup in Atlanta, Schaub attempted only three passes in relief of Matt Ryan. While he’s a capable reserve, there’s little question the Falcons’ season would go down in flames if Schaub is forced to step in for Ryan for any serious length of time. Toilolo, meanwhile, is the perfect No. 2 tight end, as he’s a willing blocker who also plays on special teams. In 2016, Toilolo played 55% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps while rookie Austin Hooper saw roughly 40% playtime. Expect those percentages to flip next season.

The only external additions made by the Falcons — wide receiver Andre Roberts and fullback Derrick Coleman — should slot in as replacements for two departed Atlanta free agents, Eric Weems and Patrick DiMarco. Roberts will likely become the primary return man for the Falcons in 2017, although his roster spot isn’t a given just yet, per Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com. Entering his eighth NFL campaign, Roberts handled 33 kickoffs and 20 punt returns for Detroit last season. Coleman, 26, was out of of the NFL in 2016 following an alleged hit-and-run, but he should see ample playing time next season, as DiMarco played the second-most offensive snaps of any fullback in the league a season ago.

Notable losses:

As Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap explained in an excellent offseason study, the Falcons are returning the majority of the players who contributed to their Super Bowl run, as they finished 29th in the NFL in terms of percentage of snaps lost. Additionally, Atlanta finished dead last with only 3.8% quality snaps lost, which factors in the amount of departed players who went on to sign with other clubs. The entire piece is well-worth a full read, but the main takeaway is that the Falcons didn’t lose a ton from the corps that led them to an NFC Championship title.

Veteran guard Chris Chester was the only Falcons player on either side of the ball that played more than 50% of his unit’s snaps and won’t return in 2017. Chester actually never left the field when Atlanta had the ball, as he played all 1,039 offensive snaps for the Falcons last season. Although he ultimately decided to retire, Chester wasn’t in the Falcons’ 2017 plans, anyway, as the team had no interest in re-signing him. With rookie Sean Harlow still adjusting to life as a guard, Ben Garland and Wes Schweitzer are competing to take over for Chester on the right side.

The rest of the Falcons’ notable losses on the offensive side of the ball were essentially bit players, veterans who played a role but were never a focal point on Atlanta’s offensive game plan. Patrick DiMarco, was one of the league’s most-deployed fullbacks, but he still played on less than a third of the Falcons’ offensive snaps. He was replaced by Derrick Coleman for a fraction of the cost. Tight end Jacob Tamme was Atlanta’s second-leading receiver in 2015, but is still in the midst of a lengthy recovery period following shoulder surgery. And Aldrick Robinson was a serviceable deep ball threat (six catches of 20+ yards), but he’s approaching age-30 and plays the same role as Taylor Gabriel.

Along the defensive line, Atlanta bid one longtime Falcon adieu, but hasn’t made a decision on its other age-35+ defender. Defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux had been the longest-tenured Falcon, as he’d spent the entirety of his 12-year NFL career in Atlanta, starting 133 games during that time. He’s expected to continue his career, but the Falcons made no attempt to re-sign him this spring. On the other hand, Atlanta hasn’t ruled out a reunion with defensive end Dwight Freeney, who only played on 27% of the Falcons’ defensive snaps but still finished with 18 quarterback hurries (39th in the NFL).

Atlanta’s decision to add several young linebackers over the past two seasons meant the club had no use for a trio of veteran ‘backers: Paul Worrilow, Philip Wheeler, and Sean Weatherspoon. Among that group, Wheeler played the most defensive snaps (339) while Worrilow chipped in the most on special teams (253 plays). With Deion Jones, De’Vondre Campbell, and Duke Riley now on board, the Falcons are going with youth at the second level of their defense.

Trades:

Acquired a 2017 first-round pick (No. 25; DE Takkarist McKinley) from the Seahawks in exchange for a 2017 first-round pick (No. 31), a 2017 third-round pick (No. 95; S Delano Hill), and a 2017 seventh-round pick (No. 249; RB Chris Carson).
Acquired a 2017 third-round pick (No. 75; LB Duke Riley), 2017 fifth-round pick (No. 149; CB Damontae Kazee), and a 2017 fifth-round pick (No. 156; RB Brian Hill) from the Bills in exchange for a 2017 second-round pick (No. 63; OL Dion Dawkins).

Draft picks:

1-25: Takkarist McKinley, DE (UCLA)
3-75: Duke Riley, LB (LSU)
4-136: Sean Harlow, OL (Oregon State)
5-149: Damontae Kazee, CB (San Diego State)
5-156: Brian Hill, RB (Wyoming)
5-174: Eric Saubert, TE (Drake)

The Falcons had one of the league’s smallest draft classes, as they were one of only six clubs with fewer than six choices — but they made the picks count, specifically targeting areas of need and focusing in on particular players. On Day 1, Atlanta traded up in to acquire UCLA’s Takkarist McKinley in an attempt to find another edge rusher to pair with Vic Beasley. While Beasley led the league with 15.5 sacks in 2016, he managed only 16 quarterback knockdowns, leading to a 96.9% sack-per-knockdown rate that ranks second-highest over the past five seasons, according to Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com.

With Beasley likely to regress to the mean, the Falcons need more help on the edge, especially given that they rarely blitz. Atlanta will have a new defensive coordinator in 2017, but last year it rushed only four defenders 74.7% of the time, third-most in the NFL, per the 2017 Football Outsiders Almanac. McKinley has a “relatively raw approach and skill set,” says Lance Zierlein of NFL.com, but also boasts an excellent motor. While McKinley’s measurables aren’t all that impressive — he wasn’t a 2017 Force Player and ranked just 30th in SPARQ score among edge rushing prospects — it wouldn’t be surprise if he’s able to rack up sacks during his rookie season as opposing offensive linemen focus on other Atlanta defenders.

Duke Riley is the second LSU linebacker to be drafted by the Falcons in as many years, but he (and his 4.58 speed) will likely spend 2017 on special teams. Atlanta only played three-linebacker packages 19% of the time last season, so unless Riley usurps De’Vondre Campbell to play alongside Deion Jones in base sets, he may not see the field much. Likewise, offensive lineman Sean Harlow hasn’t even been mentioned as a contender for the Falcons’ right guard job, while Damontae Kazee and Brian Hill are buried on the depth chart thanks to Atlanta’s depth at cornerback and running back, respectively.

Extensions and restructures:

Devonta Freeman, RB: Extended through 2022. Five years, $41.25MM. $17.3MM guaranteed.
Desmond Trufant, CB: Extended through 2022. Five years, $68.75MM. $20.776MM guaranteed.
Ryan Schraeder, T: Restructured contract. Created $4.8MM in cap space by converting 2017 $6MM roster bonus into signing bonus.

While the merits of signing running backs to long-term contracts can be debated, Devonta Freeman is exactly the type of back who deserves to be paid if a club decides its going to ink a runner for several seasons. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2015, Freeman leads NFL running backs in approximate value (Pro Football Reference’s catch-all metric), and has reached 1,500 total yards and 13 total touchdowns in both campaigns. He’s now the league’s highest-paid running back on a multi-year deal (trailing only the franchise-tagged Le’Veon Bell), and his extension almost assuredly means fellow back Tevin Coleman will leave Atlanta when his contract expires following the 2018 season.

Freeman wasn’t the only player the Falcons extended through 2022 this offseason, as the club also locked up cornerback Desmond Trufant, making the fifth-year defensive back the NFL’s fifth-highest paid corner on a multi-year pact. Trufant missed the final six games of the regular season plus Atlanta’s postseason run with a pectoral injury, but the Falcons clearly feel that he’ll rebound to full health. Pro Football Focus ranked Truant as the league’s No. 32 cornerback in 2016, the lowest mark of his career.

Atlanta has several more extension candidates on the horizon, including quarterback Matt Ryan and left tackle Jake Matthews, each of whom is signed through 2018. Franchise owner Arthur Blank has indicated a willingness to make Ryan the highest-paid player in the league, which means Ryan could be earning close to $30MM by the time talks wrap up. The Falcons are already tight on 2018 cap space, however, as their ~$9MM ranks sixth from the bottom.

Other:

Hired Steve Sarkisian as offensive coordinator to replace Kyle Shanahan.
Promoted Marquand Manuel to defensive coordinator to replace Richard Smith.
Exercised 2018 fifth-year option for T Jake Matthews ($12.496MM).
Learned CB Jalen Collins would be suspended 10 games (PEDs).
Signed 21 undrafted rookie free agents.

While continuity has defined the Falcons’ offseason from a personnel standpoint, Atlanta is replacing both of its coordinators in 2016. New DC Marquand Manuel was promoted from within, so the club’s defensive strategies may not change all that much, but new OC Steve Sarkisian was hired from the college ranks, as he’ll replace Kyle Shanahan after one season with Alabama. Atlanta has an extremely defined offensive scheme and notable tendencies, such as their repeated use of play-action (27% of offensive plays, first in the NFL). Sarkisian doesn’t need to alter the offense after the Falcons boasted the league’s best offense in 2016, but he’ll certainly add his own ingredients to the mix.

Top 10 cap charges for 2017:

Matt Ryan, QB: $23,750,000
Julio Jones, WR: $13,900,000
Robert Alford, CB: $9,600,000
Alex Mack, C: $9,050,000
Dontari Poe, DT: $8,000,000
Mohamed Sanu, WR: $7,400,000
Andy Levitre, G: $6,625,000
Adrian Clayborn, DE: $5,406,250
Jake Matthews, T: $5,227,568
Brooks Reed, DE: $5,040,000

The NFC South is possibly the NFL’s strongest division, as the Panthers, Saints, and Buccaneers all have legitimate postseason hopes in 2016. The Falcons are defending champions, however, and have as good a chance as any other club in the division to take the crown. While Atlanta’s offense could certainly regress towards the mean, the Falcons’ defense could take a step up under Dan Quinn & Co. Double-digit wins and a division title should be the immediate goal for Atlanta, with a Super Bowl appearance (and a win this time) ranking as the team’s ultimate aspiration.

Information from Over the Cap and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Minor NFL Transactions: 8/14/17

By Dallas Robinson | at August 14, 2017 8:55 pm

Today’s minor moves:

Houston Texans

Waived/injured: WR DeAndrew White

Jacksonville Jaguars

Signed: TE David Grinnage, CB Dwayne Thomas
Waived: CB Ezra Robinson
Waived/injured: CB Josh Johnson

New York Giants

Signed: LB Chris Casher, WR Andrew Turzilli
Waived: WR Kevin Norwood, TE Colin Thompson

New York Jets

Signed: WR Daniel Williams
Waived: WR Deshon Foxx

Pittsburgh Steelers

Signed: LB Austin Gearing
Waived: Canaan Severin

San Francisco 49ers

Waived/injured: S Chanceller James

Seattle Seahawks

Waived from injured reserve: G Robert Myers (Twitter link via Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times)

Tennessee Titans

Signed: LS Ryan DiSalvo
Waived: P Jordan Gay

0 comments Houston Texans Jacksonville Jaguars New York Giants New York Jets Pittsburgh Steelers San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks Tennessee Titans Transactions Andrew Turzill Andrew Turzilli Austin Gearing Canaan Severin Chanceller James Chris Casher Colin Thompson Daniel Williams David Grinnage DeAndrew White Deshon Foxx Dwayne Thomas Ezra Robinson Jordan Gay Josh Johnson (DB)Kevin Norwood Robert Myers Ryan DiSalvo

Lions’ Brandon Copeland Done For Season

By Dallas Robinson | at August 14, 2017 7:52 pm

For the second time in as many days, the Lions have lost a member of their front seven for the remainder of the season. After leaning Sunday that defensive end Kerry Hyder had suffered a torn Achilles, Detroit today lost edge rusher Brandon Copeland to a torn pectoral, tweets Ian Rapoport of NFL.com.

Copeland, 26, doesn’t represent quite the same magnitude of loss as does Hyder, as though Copeland appeared in all 16 games last season, he started only one contest and played fewer than 150 defensive snaps. His main contributions came on special teams, where he appeared on nearly three-quarters of Detroit’s snaps and helped the club finish with a No. 6 ranking in ST DVOA.

Copeland originally signed with the Lions in the spring of 2015 after impressing at the veteran’s combine. Prior to joining Detroit, he’d spent time with the Ravens, Titans, and the Orlando Predators of the Arena Football League. Copeland is scheduled to become a restricted free agent next spring, but this unfortunate injury could lead to him being non-tendered in 2018.

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Jags WR Marqise Lee Has High Ankle Sprain

By Dallas Robinson | at August 14, 2017 7:33 pm

Jaguars wide receiver Marqise Lee suffered a high ankle sprain in Sunday’s preseason game, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (Twitter link). While Lee could conceivably be available for Week 1, an abundance of caution could force Lee to miss the beginning of the regular season, per Rapoport.

Lee, a second-round pick in 2014, finally lived up to his draft billing last season, as he appeared in all 16 games for the first time in his career. With Allen Hurns sidelined by injury near the end of the 2016 campaign, Lee actually finished second among Jaguars wide receivers with 817 offensive snaps. In that time, he posted 63 receptions, 851 yards, and three touchdowns, and was excellent on a per-play basis, finishing 18th in DVOA.

If Lee can’t get back on the field in time for the season opener, fourth-round rookie Dede Westbrook would theoretically see more snaps as Jacksonville’s third wide receiver. Arrelious Benn and Rashad Greene could also be in contention for expanded playing time, but the Jaguars may choose to lean even more heavily on the run game. Jacksonville ran the ball on only 37% of plays last year, seventh-least in the league, but now boast fourth overall pick Leonard Fournette in the backfield.

Even if Westbrook (or another wide receiver) can fill in for Lee in the Jaguars’ offense, Jacksonville will need to find a new kick returner for the time Lee misses. In 2016, Lee managed 30.3 yards per return on 18 kickoffs, helping the Jags gain 8.9 points of field position on kick returns (fifth-best in the NFL, and the only area of the club’s special teams that was above-average).

Westrbook and/or Greene could help out on special teams, but adding a free agent could also be on the table. Marc Mariani, who’s made a career of fielding both kick and punt returns, is still on the open market. However, he’s entering his age-30 campaign and averaged only 21.5 yards per kick return in 2016.

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Cardinals To Consider Free Agent Wideouts

By Dallas Robinson | at August 14, 2017 7:13 pm

The Cardinals will examine the free agent market in search of a wide receiver, head coach Bruce Arians told reporters, including Darren Urban of AZCardinals.com (Twitter links).

Arians is not pleased with Arizona’s wide receiver depth chart, per Urban — while Arians believed this spring that every Cardinals pass-catcher had the talent to play in the NFL, he now thinks the club “might have two” wideouts ready for immediate time. While that’s probably some typical Arians sarcasm, it’s true that Arizona doesn’t have much depth among its wide receiving corps.

Heading into the offseason, I listed wide receiver among the Cardinals’ top three areas of need, but the only addition the team made at the position was third-round draft pick Chad Williams, who will attempt to make the leap from Grambling State to the NFL. Larry Fitzgerald still has talent to offer even at his advanced age, but John Brown, J.J. Nelson, Jaron Brown, and the rest of Arizona’s wideouts have been plagued by injuries or ineffectiveness.

None of the Cardinals’ receivers ranked among the top 60 in DVOA a season ago, and the club’s passing offense finished 27th in DVOA as a whole, so adding a free agent isn’t the worst idea. Picking over the free agent market in August isn’t ideal, however, and the available options at wideout are particularly limited. Vincent Jackson, Stevie Johnson, and Eddie Royal are among the veterans that remain unsigned, while Arizona could also take a chance on a younger player such as Dorial Green-Beckham, who’s been ineffective through two NFL stops.

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Chargers LB Denzel Perryman To Miss Time

By Dallas Robinson | at August 14, 2017 6:13 pm

Chargers linebacker Denzel Perryman will miss at least the first four games of the regular season after suffering an ankle injury in Sunday’s preseason game, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (Twitter link), who adds Perryman may require surgery.

Although initial reports indicated Perryman could miss only four weeks (starting today), an MRI apparently showed a more severe injury and led to a longer timeline. If Perryman does indeed miss the first four weeks of the 2017, he’ll be absent for contests against the Broncos, Dolphins, Chiefs, and Eagles.

Perryman has been no stranger to injuries throughout his two-year career, as pectoral, shoulder, hamstring, and knee issues have sidelined him since he entered the league as a second-round draft pick in 2015. He’s been relatively effective when on the field, however, especially against the run. Last year, the 23-year-old Perryman started 11 games and played on 45% of the Chargers’ defensive snaps, racking up 71 tackles, two sacks, and grading as the league’s No. 43 linebacker in the process, per Pro Football Focus.

Los Angeles has the depth to withstand a Perryman absence, especially given that he was only expected to be a two-down player thanks to his lack of coverage abilities. Joshua Perry, a fourth-round choice in 2016, should take over as the Chargers’ middle linebacker in base packages, while outside ‘backers Jatavis Brown and Korey Toomer will stay on the field in nickel situations.

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Author: Dallas Robinson