Poll: Andrew Luck Vs. Russell Wilson
Earlier today, we learned that buzz around the NFL suggests that Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson will be in line for annual salaries of $24-25MM when they’re eligible to extend their rookie contracts. Whether either player will ink an extension as soon as they’re eligible is debatable. Considering teams now hold fifth-year options on first-round picks, the Colts will have a little leverage if they want to wait on Luck. In any case, for now we’re not considering the timeline for the quarterbacks’ new deals — we’re examining which one deserves to be paid more.
As I noted in that previous post when comparing Luck and Wilson, not only does the Seattle signal-caller have more postseason success, but he has also posted better regular-season numbers in many key categories. In their two years in the NFL, Wilson has completed a higher percentage of passes (63.6% to 57.0%), tossed more TDs (52 to 46), and thrown fewer interceptions (19 to 27) than Luck. The Seahawks star also has a higher career passer rating (100.6 to 81.5), more yards per attempts (8.1 to 6.8), and more rushing yards (1,028 to 632).
Those statistics, combined with Wilson’s Super Bowl win, would suggest that he has significantly more value than Luck, but the numbers don’t tell the whole story. Wilson has been aided by a Seahawks defense that not only played a huge part in the team’s Super Bowl run but also consistently puts the team’s offense in good scoring position. Additionally, Seattle’s offense often takes a run-first approach led by Marshawn Lynch, allowing Wilson to pick and choose his spots more carefully, whereas a subpar running game has forced the Colts to lean more heavily on Luck to accumulate first downs and points over the last two years.
A former first overall pick, Luck is also a year younger than Wilson, and when the two players sign their next contracts, they won’t just be paid for what they’ve already accomplished — their teams will be paying for the continued development and growth they expect in the coming years. And if you asked people around football which quarterback will be the league’s best five years from now, I imagine you’d hear Luck’s name mentioned often.
What do you think? Which franchise quarterback do you think deserves to be paid more on his next contract?
Which player should get the bigger contract extension?
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Andrew Luck 60% (304)
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Russell Wilson 30% (154)
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They should be paid the same amount 10% (52)
Total votes: 510
Luck, Wilson On Track For $24MM+ Per Year?
While Colin Kaepernick‘s new contract has the potential to be massive, its average of $21MM per year didn’t set a new standard. The high water mark for quarterbacks’ annual salaries still belongs to Aaron Rodgers and his $22MM per year figure. Nonetheless, it may just be a matter of time before a new wave of young signal-callers tops that amount. According to Adam Schefter of ESPN.com (via Twitter), word around the NFL suggests that when Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson sign extensions, their new deals will come in at around $24-25MM per year.
As Joe Flacco‘s long-term contract with the Ravens exhibited, Super Bowl victories typically give a notable bump to a quarterback’s value, so it’s no surprise that Wilson, coming off a championship, would be eyeing such a mega-deal. However, his regular-season numbers also stack up quite well against Luck’s — the Indianapolis QB has piled up more yardage, but in their two years in the league, Wilson has completed a higher percentage of passes (63.6% to 57.0%), tossed more TDs (52 to 46), and thrown fewer interceptions (19 to 27) than Luck.
That isn’t to say that Luck won’t also be deserving of a $24MM+ annual salary, particularly with the salary cap on the rise. The former first overall pick showed plenty of improvement in 2013 even after one of his top weapons (Reggie Wayne) went down with a season-ending injury, and more is expected of him on offense than of Wilson, who plays in a more run-heavy system in Seattle. Further growth is expected for Luck in 2014, and the Colts will do everything they can to lock up their franchise quarterback. Still, barring a drastic turn this season, Wilson may actually have a stronger case to become the highest-paid QB in football.
Cam Newton, Nick Foles, and Robert Griffin III are among the other talented young quarterbacks who also figure to engage their respective teams in talks on long-term extensions sometime within the next year or so.
AFC Notes: Colts, Steelers, Broncos, Williams
Let’s check in on a few of the latest notes from around the AFC, including a pair of teams making minor transactions….
- After waiving a pair of players yesterday, the Colts have filled those roster spots by signing two players today. Cornerback Johnny Adams and center FN Lutz have signed with the team, according to Craig Kelley of Colts.com (via Twitter). Adams spent some time with the Bills and Raiders in 2013, while Lutz went undrafted this year out of Indiana State.
- The Steelers swapped one wide receiver for another, according to PR man Burt Lauten, who tweets that the club has signed California alum C.J. Goodwin and cut Jasper Collins.
- Alan Robinson of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review wonders if the Steelers might look to bring back veteran Brett Keisel. Pittsburgh is quite thin at defensive end and the longtime Steeler could return as a backup and mentor to second-round draft pick Stephon Tuitt. Still, we heard yesterday from the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that Keisel isn’t currently willing to play for the veteran’s minimum.
- In his latest mailbag for the Denver Post, Mike Klis fields several Broncos-related questions from readers, discussing John Elway‘s ability to recruit free agents, the club’s 2014 draft class, and Andre Caldwell‘s role for 2014.
- When Tom Pelissero of USA Today suggested to free agent defensive tackle Kevin Williams that he views the Patriots as a potential fit for the veteran DT, Williams chuckled. “Well, give them a call,” he said. “Tell them to look me up.” Based on Williams’ comment, it sounds like New England hasn’t been in touch, but he confirmed that at least a couple teams have called and that he continues to weigh his options.
Minor Moves: Broncos, Colts, Bengals, Chiefs
Here are Tuesday’s minor transactions from around the NFL, including signings and cuts of players who haven’t seen much NFL action recently (or at all), and the retirement of a former 49ers draft pick:
- The Broncos announced a pair of draft pick signings today, meaning they’ve locked up five of their six draftees within the last two days. Third-round offensive lineman Michael Schofield and fifth-round linebacker Lamin Barrow are the latest players to ink their rookie deals with Denver, as the club confirmed in a pair of press releases. Mike Klis of the Denver Post tweets that the Broncos also waived offensive tackle Ramon Harewood.
- According to Craig Kelley of Colts.com (via Twitter), the Colts have cut quarterback Seth Lobato and cornerback Keon Lyn, both of whom signed with the club last month as undrafted free agents.
- The Bengals have just one open spot left on their 90-man roster after signing offensive tackle Chandler Burden today, tweets Coley Harvey of ESPN.com. A Cincinnati-area native who played his college ball at Kentucky, Burden has previously spent time with the Dolphins and Chiefs.
- Offensive lineman Jason Slowey, who was drafted in the sixth round in 2012 by the Niners, has announced his retirement, tweets Adam Caplan of ESPN.com. Slowey had been playing for the B.C. Lions of the Canadian Football League.
- The Chiefs waived offensive lineman Colin Kelly today, according to Terez A. Paylor of the Kansas City Star (via Twitter).
AFC Mailbags: Bengals, Steelers, Colts, Jags
ESPN’s NFL writers answered questions from their readers this weekend. Let’s take a look at some interesting notes from the AFC…
- Jay Cutler‘s deal with the Bears and Alex Smith‘s likely extension with the Chiefs will have an impact on the Bengals negotiations with Andy Dalton, writes Coley Harvey.
- Even though the team selected Jeremy Hill in the second round this year (and Giovani Bernard in the second round last season), Harvey would be surprised if the Bengals let go of veteran running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis.
- In spite of the above opinion, Harvey says the team will likely part ways with one of Green-Ellis, Cedric Peerman or Rex Burkhead. The writer believes that Burkhead is at the most risk of being cut.
- Scott Brown says “it would make all the sense in the world” for the Steelers to bring back Brett Keisel. In an another article, Brown writes that Heath Miller‘s recent quote (the tight end stated that the linebacker was not with the team “right now”) is an indication that the veteran will return.
- LaVon Brazill, Da’Rick Rogers and Griff Whalen will likely be competing for the Colts‘ final wideout spot, writes Mike Wells. The writer believes that Reggie Wayne, T.Y. Hilton, Hakeem Nicks and Donte Moncrief are locks to make the roster.
- If the Jaguars weren’t in such good shape cap-wise, Michael DiRocco thinks the team would have cut or tried to restructure the contract of tight end Marcedes Lewis.
Colts Finish Signing Draft Picks
The Colts have signed third-round wide reciever Donte Moncrief to his four-year rookie contract, the team announced today in a press release. Indianapolis had the league’s smallest draft class, with just five selections, and Moncrief becomes the last of those five players to put pen to paper.
Moncrief, who decided to forgo his senior season and enter the draft early, caught 156 balls for 2,371 yards and 20 touchdowns during his three years at Mississippi, including 59 for 938 yards in 2013. Per Jason Fitzgerald of Over The Cap, the wideout’s signing bonus will be $543K+, with an overall four-year contract value of about $2.794MM. Since they only had five picks and no first-rounder, the Colts’ signing bonus pool was the smallest in the NFL this season — the team’s five draftees combined for just $1.796MM in bonus money, according to Fitzgerald.
By signing Moncrief, the Colts become the ninth NFL team to finish locking up its draft class. The Bills, Bears, Chiefs, Saints, Chargers, 49ers, Seahawks, and Redskins have also signed all of their picks, and many other clubs are just one player away. You can track all the signings right here.
AFC Links: Bills, Jets, Colts, Jaguars
Earlier, we took a look at what ESPN’s NFC writers had to say on this Memorial Day. Now, let’s focus on ESPN’s AFC writers…
- While he could envision the Bills adding a veteran defensive end to play alongside Mario Williams, ESPN.com’s Mike Rodak is very intrigued by former first-rounders Jerry Hughes and Manny Lawson.
- The Jets will likely only keep four of their six runnings backs, writes ESPNNewYork.com’s Rich Cimini. Even then, the writer believes that the backfield, which includes Chris Johnson, Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell, Daryl Richardson, Alex Green and Mike Goodson, will still have “a lot of mouths to feed.”
- Colts wide receiver Reggie Wayne is making good progress in his recovery from a torn ACL, says ESPN.com’s Mike Wells. Still, the wideout will likely miss the team’s mandatory minicamp in June.
- The Jaguars have four receivers that are locks to make the roster, according to Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com: Cecil Shorts, Ace Sanders, Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson. That leaves Mike Brown, Kerry Taylor, Tandon Doss, Lamaar Thomas, Chad Bumphis, Damian Copeland and Allen Hurns to compete over the final two spots.
Andre Johnson Links: Texans, Patriots, Chiefs
We heard earlier this week that Texans’ head coach Bill O’Brien and GM Rick Smith are attempting to alleviate star Andre Johnson‘s concerns about the direction of the team. While some may assume Johnson’s frustrations are attributed to the lack of quarterback talent on the team, NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport points to something else.
“Johnson’s frustrations are not about the Texans‘ decision to not draft or sign a marquee quarterback,” writes NFL.com’s Dan Hanzus. “It is Rapoport’s understanding that the frustrations are the product of a deeper concern about whether Johnson wants to be part of another rebuilding process in Houston.”
Following the news of the disgruntled Johnson’s concerns, plenty of NFL writers offered their opinions on the matter. Here are some of them…
- Trading Johnson would “make no sense” for the Texans, opines CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora. While Johnson is the most popular player in team history and will certainly have a positive impact on young quarterbacks, La Canfora says a trade would send a negative message to the team.
- Meanwhile, Stephen Forsha of ToroTimes.com says that Johnson and the Texans should cut ties now. Forsha believes that the longer the saga is drawn out, the more of a distraction it will become.
- Vinnie Iyer of The Sporting News ranks the five likeliest teams for Johnson next season. His top team is, of course, the Texans. Iyer cites the difficulty in moving such a large contract as a reason why Johnson will stick around. The Jets, Browns, Colts and Patriots round out his top-five.
- The Patriots should absolutely be interested in the wideout, says CSNNE’s Danny Picard. Meanwhile, colleague Steve Buckley compares the situation to that of another wideout in 2007. “You can apply everything you just said, just scratch out that name and put in Randy Moss,” said Buckley. “It was different, he was trying to resurrect his career, but he was also looking to play with a good quarterback.”
- The opportunity to add Johnson to the Chiefs should be taken “very seriously,” writes Josh Michaels of KCKingdom.com. The salary makes a deal difficult, and Michaels says the team would likely need to include players that cut a similar number against the cap (he suggests Eric Berry and Brandon Flowers). Still, while it all may be speculation, Michaels believes the team’s decision to not draft a wideout may be an indication that the team is interested.
Checking In On Draft Pick Signings
Under old NFL Collective Bargaining Agreements, the time between the draft and the regular season represented a period of uncertainty for many rookies, with no assurances that contracts would get signed before training camps opened in the summer. However, the current CBA has expedited the process significantly, essentially locking in signing bonus and contract values by draft slot, meaning that deals are being completed faster than ever and holdouts are becoming a thing of the past.
With the help of our list of draft pick signings by team, here are a few details on which contracts have been finalized so far, and which ones still need to be signed:
- 139 draftees have signed, or at least agreed to terms, so far. Since 256 players were drafted in total, that leaves 117 who still have to sign.
- Although more than half of this year’s draft picks have been locked up, that ratio doesn’t extend to first-rounders. Only six of those 32 players have reached agreements with their respective clubs so far — Khalil Mack (No. 5), Anthony Barr (No. 9), Odell Beckham Jr. (No. 12), Kyle Fuller (No. 14), Brandin Cooks (No. 20), and Teddy Bridgewater (No. 32). There shouldn’t be any problems with the contracts for any first-round picks, but there are a few more details to negotiate for those players, including overall guaranteed money.
- Conversely, the deals for seventh-rounders are less complicated to work out, so it’s not surprising that 33 of 41 seventh-round picks have agreed to terms on their deals. Four of those eight unsigned seventh-rounders were drafted by the Rams, who have yet to sign any of their picks.
- The Saints and Bears made quick work of the draft pick signing period, having signed all of their 2014 draftees to rookie contracts already. The Chargers, Colts, and Giants each have just one player left to lock up.
- On the other hand, several clubs are taking their time to sign their draft picks, or at least are in no rush to announce those deals — in addition to the Rams, the Broncos, Bengals, Dolphins, and Browns have yet to ink any rookie contracts.
- To check out the pick-by-pick breakdown of signing bonuses and contract values for each draft slot, be sure to visit OverTheCap.com.
Extra Points: Irsay, Super Bowl, Minor Moves
Colts’ owner Jim Irsay spoke publicly for the first time since being entered into rehab, and Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star noted some of the highlights in a series of tweets. Holder writes that Irsay has been aware of the Colts dealings, and has been following the team through the offseason. This includes conversations with head coach Chuck Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson.
Here are some other notes from around the NFL:
- Former Colts’ center Jeff Saturday is prepared to make a pitch for Indianapolis to host the Super Bowl in 2018, writes Mike Wells of ESPN.com. “I’m excited to get in front of the owners and present for our city,” Saturday said. “It’s not about what we did in 2012. I look forward to Super Bowl 52 being in Indianapolis. I think it’ll be a great day for all of us.”
- The Saints are also vying for the 2018 Super Bowl, led by Jay Cicero of the Greater New Orleans Sports Foundation, writes Larry Holder of NOLA.com. “I just know from the 20-something years we’ve been doing this, this is the most creative, thorough (bid). … We’ve put everything on the table. Everything. It’s the most use of our resources,” Cicero said. “Things we’ve never done and things the NFL has never seen before.”
- The Saints have signed fourth-round pick Khairi Fortt, the team announced on their website NewOrleansSaints.com. Fortt, an outside linebacker out of California, is the final draft pick to sign with the team.
- The Panthers have signed linebacker Billy Boyko to a two-year deal, reports Joe Person of the Charlotte Observer (via Twitter). Boyko was made available after being cut by the Raiders.
- The Titans have signed five players from their rookie minicamp, reports Jim Wyatt of the Tennessean. The team signed running Waymon James of TCU, receiver Julian Horton of Arkansas, offensive lineman Viondy Merisma, cornerback Winston Wright and linebacker David Gilbert. The Titans released fullback Quinn Johnson, cornerback George Baker, linebacker Jamal Merrell and receiver Eric Ward (who was waived/injured) to make room on the roster.