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It took the Bears until Week 18 for the No. 1 draft slot to become a reality; the Panthers did not make them wait that long this year. Carolina’s struggles will give Chicago the No. 1 overall pick for a second straight year. How the Bears will proceed with that pick will become one of the NFL’s defining 2024 storylines.

The Cardinals’ unexpected conquest in Philadelphia knocked them down two slots in the 2024 draft order. As a result, the Commanders — who resided in the fourth position before the Patriots’ Christmas Eve upset ended the Russell Wilson era in Denver — hold the No. 2 pick going into the regular season’s final Sunday.

The Commanders benched Sam Howell in back-to-back weeks and were set to, prior to a midweek Jacoby Brissett setback, shelve him for Week 17 as well. The Ron Rivera era is in its final days, with front office changes likely as well. A Commanders-Caleb Williams connection has emerged, which would make Washington quite interested in what Chicago does at No. 1 overall — or key another round of Bears talks about dropping from 1 to 2, which took place with the Texans this offseason. With the Bears likely considering another Justin Fields season and the Cardinals having Kyler Murray tied to a $46.1MM-per-year contract, the Commanders are suddenly a team to watch regarding a QB investment.

Bill Belichick is also perched as a key 2024 domino, but with the legendary HC not eager to leave New England, one of the most important decisions in franchise history awaits Robert Kraft. Belichick or his replacement could hold a top-three pick in 2024, though another Pats win — they have the Jets in Week 18 — would complicate an effort to land a top-tier QB prospect.

Entering Week 18, here is how the 2024 draft order looks:

1. Chicago Bears (via Panthers)
2. Washington Commanders: 4-12
3. New England Patriots: 4-12
4. Arizona Cardinals: 4-12
5. New York Giants: 5-11
6. Los Angeles Chargers: 5-11
7. Tennessee Titans: 5-11
8. New York Jets: 6-10
9. Atlanta Falcons: 7-9
10. Chicago Bears: 7-9
11. Las Vegas Raiders: 7-9
12. Minnesota Vikings: 7-9
13. New Orleans Saints: 8-8
14. Denver Broncos: 8-8
15. Seattle Seahawks: 8-8
16. Cincinnati Bengals: 8-8
17. Arizona Cardinals (via Texans)
18. Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-7
19. Green Bay Packers: 8-8
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-8
21. Indianapolis Colts: 9-7
22. Jacksonville Jaguars: 9-7
23. Los Angeles Rams: 9-7
24. Buffalo Bills: 10-6
25. Kansas City Chiefs: 10-6
26. Philadelphia Eagles: 11-5
27. Detroit Lions: 11-5
28. Houston Texans (via Browns)
29. Miami Dolphins: 11-5
30. Dallas Cowboys: 11-5
31. San Francisco 49ers: 12-4
32. Baltimore Ravens: 13-3

While the Panthers, Cardinals and Commanders continued their losing ways in Week 16, the Patriots’ effort in Denver shook up the top of the 2024 draft. New England has dropped from second to fourth in the ’24 order.

In a strange spot in which Broncos fans and and undoubtedly many Pats supporters wanted the Russell Wilson-driven comeback to succeed, Chad Ryland‘s 56-yard game-winning field goal dropped New England out of the No. 2 spot, injecting doubt about the team’s ability to nab a top-flight QB prospect without trading up next year.

The Bears (via the Panthers) remain atop the table, holding a one-game lead on the Cardinals. Carolina closes its season with two games against eight-win teams — the Jaguars and Buccaneers. Arizona will face Philadelphia and Seattle, and with Carolina’s strength of schedule at .522 and Arizona’s at .561, the draft-order tiebreaker reaffirms the Bears’ placement on the doorstep of entering a second straight offseason holding a No. 1 overall pick. The Justin Fields matter remains an important big-picture NFL topic, but GM Ryan Poles is close to having his pick of the 2024 QB prospects.

It is not clear if the Commanders will be interested in a quarterback in the first round, but they will have a new regime running the show. The last time Washington held a top-three pick (2020), it passed on Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert due to having drafted Dwayne Haskins in the 2019 first round. With Sam Howell struggling as of late, Josh Harris‘ next set of decision-makers may want to bring in their own prospect. The Cardinals could stand in the Commanders’ way, via another trade in the top three, but suddenly Washington could be a player for a 2024 first-round QB.

Ahead of Week 17, here is how the 2024 draft order looks:

1. Chicago Bears (via Panthers)
2. Arizona Cardinals: 3-12
3. Washington Commanders: 4-11
4. New England Patriots: 4-11
5. New York Giants: 5-10
6. Los Angeles Chargers: 5-10
7. Tennessee Titans: 5-10
8. Chicago Bears: 6-9
9. New York Jets: 6-9
10. Atlanta Falcons: 7-8
11. New Orleans Saints: 7-8
12. Green Bay Packers: 7-8
13. Las Vegas Raiders: 7-8
14. Denver Broncos: 7-8
15. Minnesota Vikings: 7-8
16. Arizona Cardinals (via Texans)
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-7
18. Cincinnati Bengals: 8-7
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-7
20. Indianapolis Colts: 8-7
21. Seattle Seahawks: 8-7
22. Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-7
23. Los Angeles Rams: 8-7
24. Buffalo Bills: 9-6
25. Kansas City Chiefs: 9-6
26. Dallas Cowboys: 10-5
27. Houston Texans (via Browns)
28. Detroit Lions: 11-4
29. Miami Dolphins: 11-4
30. Philadelphia Eagles: 11-4
31. San Francisco 49ers: 11-4
32. Baltimore Ravens: 12-3

The Panthers’ Week 15 win over the Falcons brought the Patriots and Cardinals, who each lost, one game closer to the No. 1 overall pick. New England’s weaker strength of schedule provides keeps Arizona in the No. 3 spot, while Washington — weeks away from a likely full-scale reboot — has lost five straight to move into position for its first top-five pick since 2020.

Early reports have the Bears more likely to draft Justin Fields‘ replacement than trading a top pick once again, but the Patriots and Cardinals are still in the running for what could well be the Caleb Williams draft slot. Much less drama would emerge if New England claimed the top pick, as the Patriots would be expected to draft the top QB prize. Arizona landing atop the draft for the second time in six years could produce a derby, with Kyler Murray‘s contract difficult (but not impossible) to move for new GM Monti Ossenfort. QB-needy teams may well be hoping the Cardinals land one of the top two spots, however, providing a potential gateway to a trade-up for Williams or Drake Maye.

The Raiders’ 63-21 demolition of the Chargers slid them down six spots compared to their position last week. The Packers also climbed eight spots from their slot going into Week 15. Green Bay has not held a top-11 draft choice since it drafted B.J. Raji in the 2009 first round; that came on the heels of Aaron Rodgers‘ first season at the helm. Jordan Love‘s QB1 debut season could still produce a playoff berth, however, and the rest of the NFC and AFC wild-card races remain tightly bunched.

Here is how the 2024 draft order looks with three regular-season games to play:

1. Chicago Bears (via Panthers)
2. New England Patriots: 3-11
3. Arizona Cardinals: 3-11
4. Washington Commanders: 4-10
5. Chicago Bears: 5-9
6. New York Giants: 5-9
7. New York Jets: 5-9
8. Los Angeles Chargers: 5-9
9. Tennessee Titans: 5-9
10. Atlanta Falcons: 6-8
11. Green Bay Packers: 6-8
12. Las Vegas Raiders: 6-8
13. New Orleans Saints: 7-7
14. Denver Broncos: 7-7
15. Seattle Seahawks: 7-7
16. Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-7
17. Arizona Cardinals (via Texans)
18. Buffalo Bills: 8-6
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-7
20. Minnesota Vikings: 7-7
21. Los Angeles Rams: 7-7
22. Indianapolis Colts: 8-6
23. Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-6
24. Cincinnati Bengals: 8-6
25. Kansas City Chiefs: 9-5
26. Houston Texans (via Browns)
27. Detroit Lions: 10-4
28. Philadelphia Eagles: 10-4
29. Miami Dolphins: 10-4
30. Dallas Cowboys: 10-4
31. Baltimore Ravens: 11-3
32. San Francisco 49ers: 11-3

Two different teams have held the No. 1 overall pick in consecutive years since 2017. Amid a radical rebuild effort, the Browns carried the top pick into the 2017 and ’18 drafts. The Jaguars did the same in 2021 and ’22. It is possible the Bears will follow that up in back-to-back years. The big difference here would be the Bears traded the 2023 top choice and may unload the 2024 top pick for another windfall, depending on their evaluation of Justin Fields.

The Bears and Panthers’ March trade, giving Carolina access to Bryce Young, has become a seminal moment for both teams. As it stands now, Chicago holds two top-five picks. The Panthers are 1-12, giving the Bears a two-game lead on the Patriots and Cardinals for the top slot with four games left. Chicago finishing with the first overall selection, providing access to the quarterback of its choice, would create a big-picture decision for a Bears team that already passed on the 2023 quarterback class to stick with Fields — a QB the Ryan Poles regime did not draft. North Carolina’s Drake Maye has declared for the draft, while USC’s Caleb Williams is widely expected to follow suit.

A new Cardinals regime is also evaluating its QB, though Kyler Murray‘s $46.1MM-per-year contract (which runs through 2028) will be much harder to escape compared to Fields’. This creates an interesting scenario that will have teams who do not land two-two draft slots monitoring how Chicago and Arizona proceed. The Patriots are widely expected to pursue a quarterback in the draft, and they are likely to do so without Bill Belichick.

With gridlock forming in the AFC and NFC wild-card races, considerable movement will take place over the next month. The winner of the NFC South will likely lose several spots in the ’24 draft, as the Buccaneers did this year by winning the ’22 division title at 8-9. Here is how the draft order looks going into Week 15:

1. Chicago Bears (via Panthers)
2. New England Patriots: 3-10
3. Arizona Cardinals: 3-10
4. Washington Commanders: 4-9
5. Chicago Bears: 5-8
6. Las Vegas Raiders: 5-8
7. New York Jets: 5-8
8. New York Giants: 5-8
9. Tennessee Titans: 5-8
10. Los Angeles Chargers: 5-8
11. Atlanta Falcons: 6-7
12. New Orleans Saints: 6-7
13. Seattle Seahawks: 6-7
14. Los Angeles Rams: 6-7
15. Denver Broncos: 7-6
16. Arizona Cardinals (via Texans)
17. Buffalo Bills: 7-6
18. Cincinnati Bengals: 7-6
19. Green Bay Packers: 6-7
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-7
21. Indianapolis Colts: 7-6
22. Minnesota Vikings: 7-6
23. Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-6
24. Houston Texans (via Browns)
25. Kansas City Chiefs: 8-5
26. Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-5
27. Detroit Lions: 9-4
28. Philadelphia Eagles: 10-3
29. Miami Dolphins: 9-4
30. Dallas Cowboys: 10-3
31. San Francisco 49ers: 10-3
32. Baltimore Ravens: 10-3