5 Key NFL Stories: 1/27/19 – 2/3/19
Eagles making Nick Foles preparations. Philadelphia is expected to pick up Foles’ $20MM option, but he”ll have the ability to “buy back” his free agency by giving the Eagles $2MM. Once that happens, the Eagles are expected to deploy the franchise tag and attempt to trade Foles. At that point, Philadelphia will be seeking at least a third-round pick in exchange for Foles. Additionally, they’re hoping to keep him out of the NFC East, meaning the Giants and Redskins are not likely destinations for Foles.
Redskins don’t expect Alex Smith for 2019. Smith suffered a brutal leg injury midway through last season, and Washington isn’t likely to have him back for any point of the 2019 campaign. Scheduled to take up a large chunk of the Redskins’ salary cap over the next four seasons, Smith is not a viable candidate to be released any time soon. As such, Washington will likely be in the market for a signal-caller in the upcoming months, either via the draft or in free agency.
Julius Peppers hangs up his cleats. Peppers, 39, announced his retirement last week following 17 seasons in the NFL. He’ll leave the league fourth all-time in sacks (159.5), and he could have moved into third place by playing in 2019. As recently as 2017, Peppers generated 11 sacks, and he was productive in 2018 despite his reduced sack total. He’ll go down as the NFL’s highest-paid defensive player of all time, and he’s a lock for Hall of Fame enshrinement when his time comes.
Three teams make OC promotions. A number of young offensive minds earned new jobs last week, as the Redskins, Cowboys, and Texans made internal promotions at the offensive coordinator position. Washington moved Matt Cavanaugh to an advisory role and installed former NFL quarterback Kevin O’Connell as OC, while Dallas promoted ex-QBs coach Kellen Moore after firing Scott Linehan. Houston, meanwhile, didn’t have a formal offensive coordinator in place before naming tight ends coach Tim Kelly for the role.
Antonio Brown reiterates trade demand. Although recent reports have indicated a cooling of tensions between Brown and the Steeers, Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com indicated this morning that Brown has in fact doubled down on his trade demand. If Brown is cut or traded before June 1, the Steelers will incur more than $21MM in dead money on their salary cap and gain just over $1MM in new space. If he’s designated as a post-June 1 cut or traded after that date, Pittsburgh will take on roughly $7MM in dead money in 2019 and ~$14MM in 2020.
Saints To Retain DC Dennis Allen
Saints defensive coordinator Dennis Allen is expected to sign a new deal that will keep him in New Orleans, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com (Twitter link).
Earlier today, reports surfaced indicating Allen was presumptive Bengals head coach Zac Taylor‘s top choice to take over as DC in Cincinnati. Allen’s contract with the Saints had expired, so the Bengals wouldn’t have had to negotiate any sort of compensation in order to land Allen. However, it appears New Orleans was able to convince Allen to stay in the role he’s held since 2015.
The Bengal weren’t the only rival club to express interest in Allen this offseason, as the Dolphins also interviewed him for their head coaching position. Allen, spent three seasons as the Raiders’ head coach, compiling an abysmal record of 8-28. But he’s respected in coaching circles, and his work with the Saints has not gone unnoticed.
Under former defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, New Orleans regularly posted one of the NFL’s worst results, and the unit continued to struggle during Allen’s first full season as DC (2016), finishing 31st in DVOA, Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric. However, the Saints vaulted up to eighth in defensive DVOA in 2017 and ranked 11th this past season. New Orleans ranked 14th and 19th in points allowed and yardage allowed, respectively, in 2018.
While players such as defensive end Alex Okafor, linebacker Craig Robertson, and cornerback P.J. Williams are set to reach unrestricted free agency in March, the Saints don’t project to lose any key defensive pieces this offseason. As such, Allen could find himself in head coaching rumors again next year, provided New Orleans’ defense continues to excel.
NFL, NFLPA May Begin Labor Discussions In 2019
The NFL’s current collective bargaining agreement expires in 2021, but labor negotiations between the league’s owners and the players’ union may begin within the next sixth months, sources tell Chris Mortensen of ESPN.com.
NFLPA president Eric Winston discussed the possibility of a work stoppage earlier this week, preparing players for a worst-case scenario (a lockout such as the one that occurred in 2011). Winston, of course, is protecting the players that rely on his counsel, but a “core group” on both the owner and player side of discussions are optimistic that talks will begin early.
Per Mortensen, the union will focus on expanding the players’ share of revenues. Currently, the CBA mandates that players average at least 47% of revenues over the life of the 10-year contract. An NFLPA spokesperson recently indicated that while the players’ share typically fluctuates between 47% and 48.5%, it’s currently at the higher end of that range. The NFLPA will also seek to expand player benefits, per Mortensen.
NFL owners, meanwhile, intend to push for a deal that will include the ability to work out new television contracts. Owners will also attempt to get more stadium credits, a concept with was detailed by Niners Nation when the new CBA was signed in 2011.
PFR Originals: 1/27/19 – 2/3/19
The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:
- The Eagles are expected to ultimately use the franchise tag on quarterback Nick Foles before attempting to trade him, and Andrew Ortenberg asked PFR readers where Foles will land this offseason. Thus far, the Jaguars — who now employ Foles’ former QBs coach John DeFilippo as offensive coordinator — are the favorites with more than 47% of the vote.
- Joe Flacco is also likely to join a new club in the coming months, but it’s unclear if the Ravens will be able to find a trade partner for the veteran signal-caller. Given his $18.5MM base salary in 2019, and his struggles during the 2018 campaign, Flacco may not be a valuable trade chip. Nevertheless, about 71% of PFR readers believe Flacco will indeed be dealt.
- The 2019 class of free agent pass rushers looks robust on paper, but each of Jadeveon Clowney, Trey Flowers, DeMarcus Lawrence, Frank Clark, and Dee Ford are legitimate franchise tag candidates and may not actually reach the open market. Flowers seems to be the likeliest to become available, as 31% of PFR voters think Flowers will hit free agency.
- In advance of Super Bowl LIII, Ben Levine examined the Rams and Patriots players who will become free agents when the new league year begins in March, a group that includes Flowers, Trent Brown, Stephen Gostkowski, Lamarcus Joyner, Rodger Saffold, Dante Fowler, and C.J. Anderson.
- After the 2019 Pro Football Hall of Fame class was announced on Saturday night, Micah Powell asked PFR readers which 2020 HOF finalist is most deserving of enshrinement.
NFC West Notes: Cards, 49ers, Rams, Hawks
Speaking at the Phoenix Open golf tournament on Wednesday, Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson apologized for his 2018 trade request and reiterated that he’s in Arizona “to stay,” according to Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com (Twitter link). The Cardinals were 1-6 when Peterson originally made his request and ultimately finished with a 3-13 record, their worst mark during Peterson’s eight-year run in the desert. Teams like the Saints and Eagles were reportedly interested in acquiring Peterson, but he rescinded his trade demand only two days after making it. Peterson, a three-time first-team All Pro and eight-time Pro Bowler, is signed through the 2020 campaign.
Here’s more from the NFC West:
- The 49ers already made one option decision last week, declining their 2019 year for defensive tackle Earl Mitchell, and they may be leaning in a similar direction for another veteran player. San Francisco is not expected to exercise its option on wideout Pierre Garcon, reports Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area. Garcon, 32, would earn $6MM in 2019 if the 49ers change their mind, but if the club follows through on declining the option, it will take on $7.2MM in dead money while saving roughly $1MM. After five years of relative durability in Washington, Garcon hasn’t been able to stay healthy in the Bay Area, playing in just 16 total games over the past two seasons.
- Not that it needed to be said, but Rams head coach Sean McVay “guaranteed” Los Angeles will not trade wide receiver Brandin Cooks, tweets Lindsay Jones of The Athletic. Cooks has already been dealt twice in his five-year career, with both acquiring clubs (the Rams and Patriots) surrendering first-round picks in order to acquire the dynamic pass-catcher. The Rams signed Cooks to a five-year extension last summer, and they’d take on more than $22MM in dead money by trading him this year. In his first season in Los Angeles, Cooks posted 80 receptions for 1,204 yards and five touchdowns.
- The Seahawks aren’t likely to franchise tag safety Earl Thomas with the intention of trading him, as Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times indicates in his latest mailbag. Seattle probably wouldn’t be able to generate much trade interest in Thomas at a ~$12MM, fully guaranteed salary, and the Seahawks likely aren’t willing to risk keeping an unhappy veteran on their roster for another season.
Ravens Notes: Flacco, Mosley, Smith, Culley
The Ravens and new general manager Eric DeCosta aren’t expected to make a decision on the fate of quarterback Joe Flacco until March, as Josh Alper of Pro Football Talk writes. The new league year begins in roughly six weeks, and while no trade can be made official until then, Baltimore could agree to deal Flacco to another club before the 2019 league year gets underway. Any pre-June 1 release or trade of Flacco will leave the Ravens with $16MM in dead money; a move after June 1 would put $8MM in dead money on Baltimore’s 2019 books and the same amount on their 2020 cap. In a PFR poll earlier this week, 71% of voters believed the Ravens will be able to find a trade partner for Flacco.
Here’s more from Baltimore:
- Linebacker C.J. Mosley is perhaps the Ravens’ most important pending free agent, and DeCosta told reporters he “believe[s] in [his] heart” that Mosley will return in 2019, according to Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com. Mosley, who has missed only two games during his five-year run in Baltimore, graded as Pro Football Focus‘ No. 22 linebacker in 2019. He’s reportedly begun contract talks with the Ravens, but head coach John Harbaugh admitted there are “limitations with money.” Luke Kuechly currently tops the inside linebacker market with a $12.4MM annual salary, while the second tier of the position sits between $10MM and $10.75MM.
- DeCosta didn’t sound as positive when discussing the possibility of re-signing edge rusher Za’Darius Smith, tweets Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic. “We don’t know what Za’Darius’ market is going to be,” said DeCosta. “He had a really nice year. Typically, the market is usually out of control for those guys, initially out of the gate.” Smith, 26, played the most defensive snaps of his career in 2019, managing 8.5 sacks in the process.
- The Ravens have hired former Bills quarterbacks coach David Culley as assistant head coach/wide receivers/passing game coordinator, Baltimore announced this week. Culley’s addition will complete the Ravens’ offensive staff overhaul, which began when new offensive coordinator Greg Roman was promoted to take the place of Marty Mornhinweg, who rejected another position inside the organization. Culley, 63, overlapped with Ravens head coach Harbaugh on Andy Reid‘s Eagles staff, serving as Philadelphia’s wide receivers coach while Harbaugh led the club’s special teams and defensive backs
Poll: Will The Top Pass Rushers Actually Hit Free Agency?
Among the dozens of NFL edge rushers scheduled to hit free agency in the middle of March, five stand out as candidates to earn more than $20MM annually. Frank Clark (Seahawks), Jadeveon Clowney (Texans), Trey Flowers (Patriots), Dee Ford (Chiefs), and DeMarcus Lawrence (Cowboys) have each registered enough production during their respective careers to vault themselves into the realm of the league’s highest-paid players, but will any of the quintet actually hit the open market?
Historically, NFL clubs have been reticent to allow their pass rushers to reach free agency. In 2018, both the Cowboys (Lawrence) and Lions (Ezekiel Ansah) deployed franchise tags to keep their best defenders in tow, leaving age-resistant Julius Peppers as the best edge defender still available when free agency began. The year prior, the Chargers, Cardinals, and Giants respectively kept Melvin Ingram, Chandler Jones, and Jason Pierre-Paul off the open market by using franchise tenders. And in 2016, the Broncos went ultra-conservative, utilizing the more expensive exclusive franchise tag — which doesn’t allow the player to negotiate with any other teams — on Von Miller.
Things don’t figure to change in 2019, thanks to the ongoing importance of edge rushers and the NFL’s soaring salary cap. Additionally, the five teams with the most projected 2019 cap space — the Colts, Jets, Browns, Bills, and Raiders — could all use help at defensive end/outside linebacker. Any pass rusher that gets to free agency is going to enter a market full of teams that a) have a clear need along their front four and b) have ample cash to spend.
Let’s take a look at each of the five premier pass rushers bearing down on free agency, with a specific focus on each player’s team’s salary cap situation:
Frank Clark (Seahawks): Seattle shouldn’t have any trouble retaining Clark, as it currently ranks eighth in the NFL with roughly $55MM in projected 2019 cap space. Additionally, the Seahawks don’t have any other first-rate free agents that will require new deals (assuming, as I am, that Earl Thomas has no interest in returning to Seattle next season). Guards J.R. Sweezy and D.J. Fluker each played at least 55% of the Seahawks’ snaps last year, but middling interior offensive linemen aren’t going to break the bank, and neither are defensive tackle Shamar Stephen or running back Mike Davis. Clark, meanwhile, is discussing a new deal with the Seahawks, but he’s also open to the franchise tag.
Jadeveon Clowney (Texans): Like the Seahawks, the Texans have plenty of cap space to go around in 2019, as they rank sixth with $65MM in available funds. However, Houston does several non-Clowney players that will need new contracts. Defensive back Tyrann Mathieu is a candidate for extension after inking a one-year, $7MM pact with the Texans last offseason, while cornerback Kareem Jackson could also be back on a short contract. Houston may also need to shell out to improve an offensive line that allowed an NFL-worst 11.5% adjusted sack rate. If the Texans do tag Clowney, the two sides may have a dispute over whether he’s a defensive end ($17.143MM franchise tag) or an outside linebacker ($14.961MM).
Trey Flowers (Patriots): As Rich Hill of Pats Pulpit wrote last May, New England hasn’t used the franchise tag frequently in recent seasons. After deploying the tag in eight times from 2002-12, the Patriots have only used the tender once over the past six years (kicker Stephen Gostkowski in 2015). Instead of signing or retaining high-end players or relying on productive rookie classes, New England leads the NFL in “mid-level veteran” contracts, according to Justis Mosqueda of Optimum Scouting, who defines that term as a veteran with a cap charge between $1MM and $6MM. Flowers may be the perfect Patriot, but it’s unclear if New England is willing to pay him as such, or instead wait for the market to dictate his price.
Dee Ford (Chiefs): His AFC Championship Game blunder aside, the 27-year-old Ford posted the best season of his career in 2019. He earned the NFL’s top pass-rushing grade from Pro Football Focus, and finished second only to Aaron Donald in total pressures generated. While we’ve seen conflicting reports as to whether the Chiefs are open to using the franchise tag on Ford, he seems like the optimal candidate for the tender. Ford has been up-and-down throughout his career, as he’s managed fewer than four sacks in three of his five professional campaigns, so a one-year deal could protect Kansas City if Ford’s performance dovetails again.
DeMarcus Lawrence (Cowboys): The Cowboys have finally removed themselves from salary cap hell, but don’t let their $55MM in space fool you. Dallas has multiple stars — including Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Byron Jones, and Jaylon Smith — up for extension over the next year-plus, so the club can’t simply run through its cash this offseason. Lawrence, if tagged, would be on his second consecutive franchise tender, meaning his salary would increase by 20% to $20.572MM.
So what do you think? Will any of these pass rushers reach actually reach free agency? Choose as many edge defenders as you like in the multiple choice poll below (link for app users):
Redskins Interview Ex-Bengals OC Bill Lazor
The Redskins interviewed former Bengals offensive coordinator Bill Lazor for their vacant quarterbacks coach position on Tuesday, according to Albert Breer of TheMMQB.com (Twitter link).
Washington made a notable change to its offensive staff earlier this week, promoting Kevin O’Connell from QBs coach to offensive coordinator while demoting former OC Matt Cavanaugh to an offensive assistant role. O’Connell’s promotion was reportedly set in motion after rival clubs expressed interest in bringing him aboard, but the Redskins now need someone to fill his old role.
Lazor, 46, was hired as Cincinnati’s quarterbacks coach in 2016 but ended up taking over as the team’s play-caller three games into the 2017 campaign. In 2018, his first full season as the Bengals’ OC, Lazor led a unit which ranked 17th in points, 19th in DVOA (efficiency), and 26th in yardage. Lazor previously worked for the Redskins from 2004-07 and held the quarterbacks coach title for the final two years of that run.
At present, it’s unclear exactly who Lazor would be coaching if he were hired in Washington. Recent reports have indicated the Redskins expect Alex Smith to miss the entirety of the 2019 season while recovering from a brutal leg injury, while Josh Johnson and Mark Sanchez are pending free agents. Longtime backup Colt McCoy remains on roster, but Washington will likely add multiple additional signal-callers over the coming months.
Dolphins Unlikely To Be Active In Free Agency
The Dolphins are not expected to pursue top-end free agents when the market opens in March, sources tell Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald.
That strategy would represent a shift under new general manager Chris Grier, who last month was promoted to replace Mike Tannenbaum as Miami’s top personnel decision-maker. Dolphins owner Stephen Ross has historically been open to adding expensive free agents, but deals for players such as Ndamukong Suh, Lawrence Timmons, and others didn’t help Miami get any closer to championship contention. With Grier and presumptive head coach Brian Flores now leading the club, the Dolphins seem to be planning for a different approach.
Indeed, Miami intends to “lose enough” to receive a high pick in the 2020 draft, reports Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. Adding free agents that would help the Dolphins win in 2019 won’t fit with the club’s long-term outlook, so Miami isn’t likely to be in contention for quarterback Nick Foles or Patriots defensive end Trey Flowers, who could be linked to the Dolphins given his relationship with Flores.
Currently, the Dolphins project to have the NFL’s sixth-least amount of 2019 cap space with roughly $13.5MM in available funds. However, Miami could grow that figure to more than $56MM simply by cutting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, wide receiver DeVante Parker, and defensive ends Robert Quinn and Andre Branch. The latter three moves are considered all but certain, while Tannehill could potentially be a trade candidate.
Meanwhile, star cornerback Xavien Howard — who is entering the final year of his rookie deal — said he hasn’t had any extension talks with the Dolphins, according to Cameron Wolfe of ESPN.com. Jackson reported last month that Howard was expected to command at least $15MM annually on his next contract, but it’s unclear if Miami is willing to go that high.
Latest On Steelers, Antonio Brown
Steelers owner Art Rooney II hasn’t been shy while opining on the status of disgruntled wideout Antonio Brown, first noting it’s “hard to envision” Brown being with the team in training camp before admitting there are “not that many signs out there that” Brown is going to offer any sort of apology for his Week 17 meltdown. But Rooney used a slightly softer tone when discussing Brown this week, as Joe Rutter of the Pittsburgh Tribune writes.
“There are a lot of factors we have to take into account on it,” Rooney said. “We’d have to sit down with Antonio and understand where he is and make sure he understands where we are. There is some work to do before we figure that out.”
If Brown is cut or traded before June 1, the Steelers will incur more than $21MM in dead money on their salary cap and gain just over $1MM in new space. If he’s designated as a post-June 1 cut or traded after that date, Pittsburgh will take on roughly $7MM in dead money in 2019 and ~$14MM in 2020.
As Rutter notes, Brown is due a $2.5MM roster bonus on March 17, so the Steelers would likely trade him before paying out that total. Trades can’t be officially processed until the new league year begins on March 13, but agreements can be in place before then.