Sam Darnold promises to be one of the most interesting free agents in recent memory. Regarding quarterback UFAs, he may become one of the most captivating commodities since full-fledged free agency launched in 1993.
Coming off an original-ballot Pro Bowl nod, Darnold transformed his free agency stock during the regular season but offered a startling update to his value to close the campaign. Duds in the Vikings’ two biggest games — blowout road losses to the Lions and Rams — did the most to drop the only 14-win team in wild-card history to being a one-and-done. Questions already lingered about Minnesota’s 2025 QB situation; Darnold’s big-stage struggles will amplify them.
The team will have the option to retain Darnold via the franchise tag, but that scenario was more plausible before the former top-three pick’s concerning finish. Still, Darnold put together a stunning season. The Vikings do not have a decision on the free agent-to-be, however, but their fourth-year GM referred to the full picture when assessing Darnold’s suddenly curious standing.
“We got to see Sam play some incredible football for us,” Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said (via Pro Football Talk). “Won a lot of big games — at Seattle, at Lambeau. The production he was able to do, we’re talking bout games where he won games for us. There were a lot of games where he was a ‘win because of’ type player. And you also have to net that with all of [it] in totality.”
Errant throws and sacks sank Darnold during the Vikings’ final two games, but he still stayed healthy throughout a season for the first time (discounting his year as the 49ers’ backup) and piloted Minnesota to three wins in games against playoff-bound opposition, beating everyone on the schedule except for the Lions and Rams.
The sector in which Minnesota resided in the NFC bracket made the Detroit and Los Angeles issues a problem, but Darnold tallied a career-high (by a wide margin) 35 touchdown passes and tossed just 12 INTs. His 7.9 yards per attempt ranked sixth in the NFL, and his 4,319 passing yards slotted fifth. QBR was a lukewarm on the ex-Jets draftee’s breakout before the Lions rematch, and the modern metric placed him 14th.
It would cost the Vikings more than $40MM to tag Darnold. That rumored scenario may have seemed more palatable before Week 18, but it perhaps still should not be entirely ruled out. An iffy draft pool and a free agency class featuring aging options, disappointing 2020s draftees and backup types would stand to help Darnold, who would be the top option if he reaches the market. Minnesota could opt to take its chances and work out a lower-cost deal without the tag coming into play, but doing a long-term deal after having drafted J.J. McCarthy 10th overall would be complicated. And Darnold may not be especially interested due to McCarthy’s presence, despite the advantages Kevin O’Connell‘s offense can provide.
“We’re going to approach this offseason — I don’t want to give you the stock answer, but it really is — everything we do is about, OK, what’s the team around him going to look like? What does this piece fit into our whole championship equation? And we’ll do those exercises like we did last offseason, came out with a plan that we came up with,” Adofo-Mensah said.
“At the end of the day, you’re making decisions under uncertainty. But what happens is, once you find a course of action, it’s how you implement your plan — how you show up every day and get the best version of whoever you decide to go with at quarterback. How does that fit into your long-term picture? The contract structure, all those different things will go under our plan. And I’m excited to have those conversations because I think we’ve got a lot of good options. And at the most important position in the sport, I think that’s a great thing.”
McCarthy has undergone two knee surgeries, repairing a torn meniscus that knocked him out for the season. The former national championship-winning passer, however, is back on the field doing QB drills, Adofo-Mensah said (via ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert), with the GM indicating the 2024 No. 10 overall pick is on schedule.
Adofo-Mensah, who joins O’Connell on the Vikings’ extension radar, still said it is “way too early” to know the team’s 2025 plan at the position. The Vikings will have some options, though this situation does look a bit different after the team devoted its 2024 offseason to replacing Kirk Cousins with a rookie. Teams will be expected to ask the Vikings about McCarthy’s availability, but Darnold’s shaky conclusion will affect the NFC North club’s answer. No trade should be considered likely in 2025.
McCarthy’s rookie deal runs through 2027, with a fifth-year option in place for the ’28 season. Darnold will be going into his age-28 season in 2025, and a substantial raise — despite the ugly finish — appears certain. QB-needy teams who lack certain access to the top arms in the draft stand to be interested. The franchise tag window opens February 18 and closes March 4; the Vikes will have until March 10 — when the legal tampering period begins — to negotiate exclusively with Darnold.
