Indianapolis Colts News & Rumors

The AFC’s top three seeds from the 2016 playoffs are each 5-2 and viewed as central threats to represent the conference in Super Bowl LII, but there are a few intriguing teams vying for the AFC’s fourth mandated home game.

With the Patriots, Steelers and Chiefs looking like solid favorites to repeat as division champions, the AFC South profiles as the conference’s most competitive race. And with two of the teams vying for the title on bye, this looks like a good time to assess midseason stock.

Three teams enter Week 8 with three losses, and one of those has yet to claim this division’s title since the NFL reorganized its divisions in 2002.

Often involved in free agent pursuits in recent years with little on-field results to show for the investments, the Jaguars are 4-3 and may have the best AFC South unit. A blend of highly paid UFAs and blossoming homegrown talents on defense have the Jags as a legitimate contender despite annual struggles piecing together a competent passing game. The Jags won the A.J. Bouye and Calais Campbell sweepstakes, and these acquisitions are paying off for the now-Tom Coughlin-run franchise.

Campbell’s midway through a career year, leading the NFL with a career-high 10 sacks in seven games, despite being 31 and joining a 4-3 scheme after years in a 3-4 look. Pro Football Focus ranks Bouye ninth among cornerbacks, with Jalen Ramsey sitting third in what’s been the best-graded tandem in football. These talents, along with No. 4 overall pick Leonard Fournette, are buoying a still-anemic passing attack.

Can the Jags’ defense and No. 1-ranked (by far) run game spearhead this surprise season if Blake Bortles continues to operate at this level? If so, it would be the franchise’s first division title since winning the AFC Central in 1999.

The two teams picked by most to vie for this division’s home playoff game, the Texans and Titans each have three losses near the midway point. Neither has the eye-popping numbers Jacksonville’s pass rush or ground game has generated, but both Deshaun Watson and Marcus Mariota have offered superior work to Bortles. And in a league where successful teams can be correlated with quarterback play, that obviously matters most.

Thus far, Watson is bailing out the Texans after their reckless Brock Osweiler contract and rewarding the franchise’s bold Round 1 trade. The Clemson-honed dynamo’s recent run has enhanced the two-time reigning AFC South champs’ offense, and the Texans largely stood pat otherwise this offseason after devoting plenty of resources to augmenting their offense in 2016. Houston, though, losing J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus — after Bouye departed — could pose a problem at some point. The Texans rank 11th in total defense after leading the league last season.

Houston also looks to have the toughest closing schedule with road dates against both fellow AFC South contenders, along with this weekend’s trip to Seattle and a Christmas Day game against the Steelers.

Tennessee’s been the least consistent of this contending trio, beating the Seahawks and routing the Jags before giving up 57 points in Houston and needing overtime to beat the Browns. The Titans’ loss to the Dolphins could be blamed on Mariota’s hamstring injury, but it doesn’t look like the trendy preseason pick will be able to stay on its current wayward pace and lock up a playoff berth.

New Titans corners Logan Ryan and Adoree’ Jackson haven’t shown upper–echelon work just yet, and Corey Davis has seen action in just one game. The Titans look to redeploy their top draft choice in Week 9, and this should benefit a passing game that’s largely depended on holdover Rishard Matthews rather than the flashy new additions of Davis and Eric Decker. Tennessee still possesses a dangerous run game, and Derrick Henry‘s receiving more work, and probably has the best offensive line of the contending trio.

With Andrew Luck possibly set to redshirt this season after enduring a setback, the 2-5 Colts do not appear likely to factor into this race. They’ve lost four of its five games by at least two touchdowns, and it’s looking like the end of the line for Ryan Grigson hire Chuck Pagano.

So, who wins this division? Can Watson complete a push for offensive rookie of the year by leading the Texans to a third straight division title? Or is the Jaguars’ resurgence built to last? Can the Titans overcome their inconsistency and ride Mariota to their first playoff berth in nine years? Is there a Colts miracle in the works? Vote in PFR’s latest poll.