Impact Rookies

Impact Rookies: Denver Broncos

July 22nd, 2016 at 11:20am CST by Zachary Links

The old adage that defense wins championships may or may not be true, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a title-winning team that didn’t build heavily through the draft. Rookie classes, naturally, are evaluated on the perceived upside of the NFL newcomers, but which rookies are ready to contribute right out of the gate? And, how do they fit in with their new team schematically?

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with his insight on the Denver Broncos’ draft class:

Even though Denver won the championship last season, you expect to see a great deal of changes for a team that relied heavily upon their defense to carry them into the playoffs. That unit, which ranked as the NFL’s leader in total defense (allowed 283.1 ypg) and pass defense (199.6 ypg) while ranking third against the run (83.6 ypg) lost two big contributors via free agency, including rush end Malik Jackson.

Speaking of the D-Line, the team made a strange move in the second round of the draft by taking Australian Adam Gotsis out of Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jacket’s technique failed to develop in college and he was viewed by most teams as just a strong man who can help support vs. the run, but also as a player with obvious pass rush deficiencies.

Gotsis, despite his power, was often stalled by combo blocks and reach blocks, rarely using his arms to escape from an offensive lineman’s clutches. He never really demonstrated much lateral agility and more often than not, he would lose sight of the ball carrier before the opponent hit the cut back lanes and showed marginal wrap-tackle skills. Gotsis has not played football since late October due to a torn ACL, making the selection even more puzzling.

Harder to replace is defensive tackle leader, inside linebacker Danny Trevathan (109 hits, two pass thefts, eight break-ups) who bolted for Chicago, where he is reunited with some of his former coaches from past Broncos seasons. Todd Davis is penciled in as his replacement, but he comes to the first unit with just 21 tackles and two career starting assignments. A former blue chip prospect whose off-field exploits resulted in a suspension while at Oklahoma, could rookie free agent Frank Shannon be the “wild card” to squash Davis’ first unit aspirations? It’s something to keep an eye on.

The offensive line was a constant problem and three of their Super Bowl starters – left tackle Ryan Harris, left guard Evan Mathis ,and right guard Luis Vasquez were jettisoned after the season. The team also traded away former left tackle starter Ryan Clady, bringing in Seattle’s Russell Okung to play the demanding position. Max Garcia, a 2015 fourth round find, takes over at left guard, but the team has a big question mark that they hope this year’s fifth round pick, Connor McGovern, could fill at the right guard position. Ouch!

I wasn’t thrilled with every pick the Broncos made this year, but these rookies could be contributors right off the bat:

Fourth Round – Devontae Booker, RB (Utah, No. 136 overall)

Ronnie Hillman led the team in rushing last year but he had to share time with C.J. Anderson, starting ten times against Anderson’s six starts. Hillman might be seeing the writing on the wall, as the front office determined that Anderson was worth a four-year deal. Still, neither player should rest easy with the training camp depth chart now that Booker is in the mix. Until he suffered a knee injury during the second half of the 2015 schedule, Booker was considered to be the best senior running back prospect in the draft. If he can return to form, the Broncos could have their most powerful runner since Terrell Davis suited up for the Orange Crush.

In two seasons at Utah, Booker earned All-Pac 12 accolades. He became just one of just two Utah players ever to record back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons and one of three to rush for 1,000 yards twice in his career. He set the school record for career rushing average (120.6) and tied the school record for career 100-yard rushing games (14). He also finished third in career rushing yards (2,773), fourth in career carries (560) and tied for sixth in career rushing touchdowns (21).

A few weeks after earning Pac-12 Player of the Week honors for his performance against California (267 all-purpose yards), Booker was forced to miss the final two regular season games and bowl action when he suffered a torn meniscus and bone bruise in his left knee against Arizona. Their was hope that Booker would at least be able to participate in the Senior Bowl on January 30th, but he did not gain medical clearance and was also an observer at the NFL Scouting Combine and Utah’s March 24th Pro Day.

Booker runs with very good balance, body control and loose hips. He has a quick short area burst and good footwork, doing a nice job of shifting his weight and staying low in his pads to slip through traffic into the second level. He generates good body lean, moves and fakes to con the defender and is very effective using his outstanding change of direction agility. In isolated coverage, he will generally win the foot race vs. second level defenders. He has swivel hips, rather than veer and weave, doing a nice job of picking and sliding trying to find daylight.

Booker is the type that can generate an explosive and sudden burst into the crease, as he has that low center of gravity that remind old time scouts of former Jets tailback Freeman McNeil. He has outstanding vision and stop-and-go action to freeze the defender and is a slippery runner through the holes. He runs with great balance and flashes good quickness on the move. He might not be able to simply fly past an opponent, but he can quickly pick and slide through trash and is a fast-twitched type who has no problem negotiating through even the tiniest of creases.

Booker has excellent change of direction agility and body control. He is very effective when taking the pitch and having time to scan the field. He is the type that can create quite a bit on his own, but also is patient following his blocks. He does a very good job of adjusting on the move and with his shiftiness in and out of his cuts, he can get past the second level consistently. He has good lower body strength to break tackles and it is rare to see him go down on the initial hit.

Booker bounces outside with good urgency. He has superb outside vision and can get to his top-end speed to take the ball to the house turning the corner. He moves well as an option running back, also, where he is able to capitalize on his balance and foot work. He has a very good feel for the cutback lanes, getting the bulk of his yardage when doing so. He might not have the timed speed to beat secondary defenders, but takes good angles and shows the head and shoulder fakes to take those opponents out of the play. With his body control, he excels at turning it up with his outside run.

Booker shows good hands for the passing game. He is fluid when trying to extend his hands away from the framework, especially when attempting to get to off-target tosses. He shows good concentration to look the ball in and is quick to turn and head up field after the catch. He has the body control to adjust to the ball in flight and has a very good feel for getting open on the screens.

Continue reading about the Broncos’ rookie class..

Fifth Round – Connor McGovern, OG (Missouri, No. 144 overall)

For the sake of the Broncos’ quarterbacks, let’s hope that the Missouri Tiger quickly acclimates to the professional game. With Evan Mathis and Luis Vasquez gone, the team’s limited options at the guard position show them penciling in McGovern as the starting right guard and Max Garcia on the left side. Also joining the competition are two college rookie free agents, Justin Murray and Aaron Neary, both lining up behind Garcia. McGovern will face off against former Raven Robert Myers and 2015 street free agen Cameron Jefferson. With 2014 sixth-round pick Matt Paradis as the starting center and Houston waiver wire pick-up James Ferentz backing him up, the interior line positions are all up for grabs.

For McGovern, he will be returning to a position he manned for Missouri back in 2014. He began that year as the starting right tackle before moving to guard. At the interior spot, the Tigers posted an 8-2 record in the ten games McGovern played with the first unit. Boasting a team record 690-pound squat, he took over left tackle duties for Missouri in 2015, finishing with an 85.4% blocking consistency grade that saw him deliver 74 knockdowns during the team’s losing campaign.

With some of the best strength performances leading up to the draft (33 reps in the 225-pound bench press at the Combine), McGovern also has good foot speed (5.12), evident by his ability to mirror defenders in pass protection. He possesses more than enough strength behind his anchor to keep quarterbacks upright and he is very quick to reset his hands to get leverage, even when he might appear a bit off balanced coming off the line. He’s the type that consistently keeps his feet moving and places his head on a swivel to stay in front of his assignment.

McGovern is capable of blocking down with one hand before sliding to help in combination with his tackle on the same play. He’s displayed good field vision and responds well when locating the blitz, taking advantage of his power to lock on and steer the defender away from the play. He works hard to keep his arms extended and feet shuffling in pass protection and, while he may not have been required to trap much at Missouri, he has the balance and foot speed to get out in front in attempts to stalk the second level defenders.

The Denver coaches seemed impressed in McGovern during minicamp, as he displayed those quick feet that their scheme requires from their guards when leading the way on pulls outside and traps inside. He can reach the second level in a hurry, and has the natural bend and flexibility to get the correct angle on target. He easily dominates smaller defenders after initial contact, latching on with force, as he also utilizes that strength to take out multiple targets with strong glancing blows. Yes, there are times when he will miss the inside target, but you know that he will give you maximum effort to cut or reach the linebacker as he goes by.

Undrafted Rookie Free Agent – Frank Shannon, ILB (Oklahoma)

Prior to the 2014 season, the former Sooner was the subject of a sexual misconduct allegation report in April, in which a female Oklahoma student accused Shannon of sexually assaulting her at an off-campus apartment in January. The alleged victim did not want to press charges, which is why the Cleveland County district attorney’s office did not prosecute the case. However, the university was obligated by federal law to conduct its own internal investigation and concluded that Shannon should be suspended for a year.

Shannon led the Sooners in tackles in 2013, a season that ended with a Sugar Bowl win over Alabama. He would not play again until the 2015 season opener after the alleged incident. He split inside linebacker duties with Dominique Alexander and Jordan Evans, starting three times last season. He would record 177 tackles with five sacks and 11.5 stops-for-loss in 37 career games, but was still a bit rusty from his 2014 lay-off, posting just 36 hits and a sack during his final college season.

Shannon is the type of player that has better success from quick reactions rather than displaying great instincts. He can explode into the running lane and smother underneath throws in zone coverage, but all too often, he will get sucked in by play-action, even though he is fast enough to recover from a false step. He has a good straight-line burst when hustling down field or when giving chase to the sideline.

While Shannon can attack and slide by lead blockers coming out of the hole, he will also lose the ball or over-pursue the play. He has the ability to knife through holes when attacking stretch plays, as his arms help him bring down backs when he doesn’t break down, but he seems to prefer running around blocks inside and that makes him inconsistent taking on linemen in the trenches and using his length to get free. He is still untested as a pass defender, but for some reason last year, he tended to get too upright when dropping into zone coverage, even though he did demonstrate good sideline-to-sideline range.

In order to earn playing time at the next level, Shannon will need to prove in camp that he is able to identify and stay with receivers in his zone and run with tight ends and slot receivers down the seam. His lack of height will not make it difficult for quarterbacks to throw over him, as he does not show great timing going up for jump balls and even when he jumps the pattern, the ball is likely to bounce off his marginal catching hands. As a hitter, he must learn how to sink his hips instead of tackling with shoulder pads. He also must improve his angles to the ball or the quicker NFL ball carriers will have a field day cutting back against him.

Dave-Te Thomas owns and operates The NFL Draft Report, a service providing insight to league scouting departments for over 40 years. All year round, you can read Thomas’ in-depth reviews of both blue chip prospects and diamonds in the rough by visiting the NFL Draft Report blog.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Impact Rookies: Cleveland Browns

July 21st, 2016 at 9:00am CST by Zachary Links

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with his insight on the Cleveland Browns’ draft class:

Whether the formula works, or not, Cleveland came out of the draft after making a flurry of trades with fourteen youngsters to vie for roster spots. By trading down from the second overall spot, the Browns definitely added quantity, but you can see that they still have a primary need – quarterback. The Eagles packaged a deal with the Browns and went home happy with their quarterback catch in North Dakota’s Carson Wentz. Meanwhile, Cleveland invested $15MM in a quarterback who could go down as one of the biggest draft day mistakes ever, Washington castoff Robert Griffin III.

For a sum of $15,072,000 in 2016, Cleveland enters training camp with a quarterback stable that includes Griffin (7.5 mil), Josh McCown (4.7 mil), Austin Davis ($2.025 mil) and Cody Kessler (847K). While the coaches are saying all nice things about Griffin coming out of mini camp, one has to wonder if they’re not sold on him since they also kept McCown.

By the time the team was able to pick in the first round, they were not in love with the quarterback left behind (Paxton Lynch) and went after filling their second-biggest need at wide receiver, bringing in the electrifying Corey Coleman. The Browns stepped away from the usual “best available athlete” draft mode used by most teams, as they went for needs with their first four selections. Checking off the big need at receiver with Coleman, UCLA’s Jordan Payton and Colorado State’s Rashard Higgins, the team turned their attention to the defensive line that featured one of the worst sack units in the league.

In fact, they doubled down at the defensive end position, first, taking Oklahoma State’s Emmanuel Ogbah in the second round, followed by Penn State sack artist Carl Nassib in the next phase. There is talk of turning Ogbah into an outside linebacker, rather than playing him on the front wall, but the team should look back at their recent draft history to see how they utterly failed in their attempts to convert Barkevious Mingo, the team’s first pick in the 2013 draft, into a stand-up second level performer.

That plan could change by training camp, as recent pectoral muscle surgery by Desmond Bryant will sideline the starting left end for four-to-six months. That could give both their second and third round selections great opportunities to join the first unit. Early money says it will be Nassib, who rocked the backfield to the tune of 15.5 sacks during his breakout 2015 season. Ogbah chipped in with thirteen sacks and nineteen quarterback pressures. Last year, Cleveland finished with 29 sacks, which ranked 28th in the NFL.

When you look at the Browns’ entire draft picture, unless the first four players contribute immediately, if could be a head scratcher by the end of the season and yet another front office blow up. They invested a fourth round pick in Princeton tight end Seth DeValve, who was rated no better than the 47th-best tight end in the draft on most war room boards. He enters camp listed fourth on the depth chart and will battle five other tight ends for what will likely be three spots on the roster. The rest of their draft picks might be the perfect formula to put an insomniac to sleep.

There are plenty of question marks in this group, but these players could put exclamation points on their frosh seasons in the NFL:

First Round – Corey Coleman, WR (Baylor University, No. 15 overall)

Whether it is a fellow former Baylor Bear at quarterback or the aging veteran (perhaps the rookie from USC can make some noise later in the year, if all else fails), the Browns knew they could not go into the season with their obvious lack of depth at the wide receiver position. Knowing they needed a playmaker who could replace the 68 receptions recorded by Travis Benjamin, who left via free agency, their logical choice was Coleman, preferring the little speedster over other blue chip first round talent like Will Fuller, Josh Doctson, and Laquon Treadwell.

Sports hernia surgery prevented the Bears prospect from playing past the 2015 regular season schedule, but despite missing bowl action, he pulled in 74-of-127 targeted passes (58.27%), as he had twelve passes batted away from him and dropped four others. Even though Baylor quarterbacks often misfired (37 targeted passes to Coleman failed to reach him), his 74 grabs rank fifth on the school season-record list. He finished ninth in the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision ranks with 1,363 receiving yards and he led the nation with a school-record 20 touchdown catches, shattering the previous mark of fourteen by Kendall Wright in 2011.

Among Coleman’s 74 receptions, he recorded 47 first downs (63.51%), converting 9-of-17 third-down opportunities. He gained at least ten yards on 38 grabs, including going distances of 20 yards or longer on 20 of those receptions. In addition to his 20 touchdowns, he had key catches to set up five other touchdown drives.

After he generated 216 yards behind eleven receptions in the Kansas State contest, Coleman started to feel the effects from a nagging groin injury. During the course of his next four appearances, he failed to reach the end zone and averaged 46.25 yards per game on a total of sixteen catches. The sports hernia discovery would keep him out of action vs. North Carolina in the Russell Athletic Bowl. Soon after, Coleman announced that he would not be returning to school in 2016 and had entered the draft.

Coleman’s best asset is his timed speed, as he has more than enough quickness to elude in the open field, with adequate strength to fight for the ball in a crowd. He is the type of player that teams covet – one with the rare playing speed to stretch the defense, showing the burst needed to beat angles. He demonstrates excellent athleticism for his position, as few opposing defenders can mirror him on deep routes due to his speed. He not only has the speed to threaten the deep secondary – he also has the body control, lateral quickness, and change of direction agility to make the underneath catches.

The former Baylor star he has good eyes for locating the soft areas to settle in and shows good awareness for the comebacks. He is quick to recognize coverage and adjust to what the secondary gives him. He also is alert enough to know when he has to work back to the ball, especially when dealing with an erratic quarterback. Coleman is a classic deep threat, used mostly to stretch the field. He gives good effort working underneath, but there are still times when he will short arm when going for the ball over the middle or when facing the quarterback.

He can make some noise in 2016, particularly if Gordon is not reinstated.

Continue reading about the Browns’ rookie class..

Third Round – Carl Nassib, WR (Penn State, No. 65 overall)

Ogbah, the Ted Hendricks Award finalist, was the nation’s leading active player with 28.0 career sacks, posting thirteen QB drops, nineteen pressures and 17.5 stops-for-loss last season, along with 65 tackles, three forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. Nassib was also a dominating force as a pass rusher, recording 15.5 sacks, 19.5 stops behind the line of scrimmage and 467 tackles. A much harder hitter than Ogbah, he caused six fumbles hitting the opposing passers. His six fumbles were the most by a Nittany Lion in a season since Michael Haynes forced seven in 2002. Nassib also posted five multiple sack performances last season.

With Desmond Bryant possibly on the sidelines for the 2016’s first half of the schedule, the former Nittany Lion only has to shine better than his practice squad-type competition – Dylan Wynn and 2013 seventh rounder, Armonty Bryant. If Nassib fails to impress, either Ogbah could take over or the two could split playing time. 2012 third rounder, John Hughes is backing up 2015 third round pick, Xavier Cooper, at right end.

Nassib is a “newcomer” to the defensive end early round draft discussions, as barely any scout covering his area recognized him as a valid prospect – that is, not until this year. Prior to 2015, Nassib’s “claim to fame” was being the little brother of Giants backup quarterback Ryan Nassib. The Penn State defender had managed just fifteen tackles, two sacks and five stops-for-loss during his first two seasons at the school. With Anthony Zettel suddenly forgetting how to get into the backfield, Nassib more than filled that gap in 2015.

Nassib has shown marked improvement utilizing pass rush moves (better rip, swim and club moves). He lacks the lower body thickness to split double teams, but possesses the change of direction flexibility to drop his weight and redirect when the gaps are plugged. When he keeps his hands active, his long arm reach allows him to defeat the combo block and reroute in back side pursuit, but he needs to use those hands with more consistency. When he keeps his pads down, he gets good leverage and that allows him to get penetration. If he can improve his upper body power and shoot his hands more, he would be more effective at beating double teams. Still, he excels at timing his jumps and anticipating the flow of the ball.

Third Round – Shon Coleman, OT (Auburn University, No. 76 overall)

With Mitchell Schwartz and Alex Mack signing elsewhere, the Browns’ offensive line will undergo yet another overhaul in 2016. The left side of the line, featuring perennial All-Pro tackle Joe Thomas and rising star, guard Joel Bitonio, will remain intact, unless those whispers of Cleveland trying to check out the market for Thomas again begin. 2015 first round disappointment, Cameron Erving, showed that he is better off playing an interior position, rather than struggle with the pass rush as a tackle. He gets the first call to replace Mack as Cleveland’s center.

John Greco is listed as the first unit’s starting right guard, with Jacksonville waiver wire pick-up, Austin Pasztor at right tackle. It is doubtful that Pasztor will survive training camp with the first unit, especially if Coleman adjusts to pro life quickly. Greco will also hear a rookie behind him, as Spencer Drango showed at the Senior Bowl he is a physical trap blocker, but bends too much at the waist to handle edge rushers at the tackle slot.

As for Coleman, it has been a whirlwind collegiate career for the Memphis native. Prior to enrolling at Auburn, the five-star recruit was diagnosed with acute lymphoblastic leukemia. He received treatment for the disease and after he recovered, he enrolled at the university. He earned his first playing time in 2013 as the backup left tackle to Greg Robinson. In 2014, Coleman became a starter for the first time, taking over left tackle duties. In 2015, the All-Southeastern Conference second-team pick posted an 84.7% grade for blocking consistency, delivering twelve touchdown-resulting blocks and 78 total knockdowns. Despite two years of eligibility remaining, he declared for the 2016 draft.

Coleman has a linear frame with good upper body length in his arms and good width in his chest, but needs to add at least another fifteen pounds of bulk. He also needs to improve his upper body power, as he does not strike with a forceful punch. That leads to times when he tries to compensate with explosion off the snap, but he can get too reckless and when he over-extends, his adequate change of direction agility makes him look sluggish trying to recover. He has the functional hip snap and enough flexibility to sink his pads and run fluidly off the line of scrimmage, along with the “heavy feet” to anchor vs. the bull rush though.

Coleman has quick, nimble feet with good balance and body control playing in the trenches (struggles playing in space). He moves well going forward off the snap and does a nice job of using his frame to pinch the defenders back inside. When he stays low in his pads, he can fire low off the snap with good explosion to gain instant advantage. While not explosive, he is rarely late off the line and is quick to make contact and impact the defender. With those long arms and big hands, he is very good at gaining advantage on a defender when he flashes suddenness coming off the ball. With a good get-off and proper hand technique, it should put him in the right place to make the block most of the time.

The Auburn tackle is better served blocking along the line, as he does not have the burst or the balance to get out and make plays in space (gets narrow and crosses his feet). However, he is a good position blocker with nimble feet (needs to improve his retreat shuffle though) moving along the line. He demonstrates the functional hip snap needed to generate movement, but he needs to do a better job of keeping his feet and staying on the defender when working in the second level. Even though he looks fluid enough working down the line, he will get sluggish running long distances and lose balance when he gets his base too narrow (inconsistent working in space).

With more bulk added for his anchor, along with more explosive quickness when he sets his base, Coleman won’t get into the problems he has when trying to separate, but additional weight could result in a loss of quickness. He has the reach ability to keep defenders at bay and while not explosive rolling his hips, at least he is not a waist bender. He sustains best at the line of scrimmage, where he does a good job of running his feet, locking on and finishing (not as good playing in space). He might be a better fit at right offensive tackle earlier in his career, as he works well in combination with other lineman, but despite his quick feet and athleticism, he tends to wait for edge rushers to come to him rather than step forward and attack his man.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Impact Rookies: Pittsburgh Steelers

July 20th, 2016 at 9:30am CST by Zachary Links

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with his insight on the Pittsburgh Steelers’ draft class:

For the first time since the 2011 draft, the Steelers went home with just seven new players from the 2016 phase. From 2011 through 2015, the Steelers went home with a total of 42 players, averaging 8.4 players in each class. That cache of talent has not produced much talent, roster-wise, as only eleven remain as projected starters and eight more in reserve roles.

With the loss of rising star, Kelvin Beachum, it was their left offensive tackle position that appeared to be the team’s primary need entering the 2016 draft, but they waited until the fourth round to bring in some fresh legs at that position. Rather, the team concentrated on the defense’s most glaring weakness – the secondary.

The current coaching staff knew that if they expected to get deep into the playoffs, they needed to drastically overhaul that unit. Pittsburgh finished with the third-worst numbers in the league last year, allowing 271.9 aerial yards per game, tying for 12th-worst by yielding 29 touchdowns. They allowed 52 receptions for at least twenty yards and twelve for forty yards or longer, but did tie for sixth in the NFL with seventeen interceptions.

That lack of performance in the defensive backfield was further highlighted by all the yellow flags that unit incurred, as the Steelers were called for 121 penalties on defense, the fourth-highest total in the league. They finished 21st in the nation in total defense (363.1 ypg) due to the secondary problems, negating a solid effort by their “front seven” that held opponents to 91.2 yards per game rushing (fifth lowest in the NFL) and only six touchdown runs (third lowest).

First Round – Artie Burns, CB (Miami, No. 25 overall)

It was a bit of a surprise to see Burns end up with the Steelers in the opening round. Many analysts figured that the team would take a lineman on either side of the ball. But, when the blue chip left tackles were all gone at No. 25, they decided that Texas A&M’s Germain Ifedi was not a left tackle worthy of being taken with their first pick. They also turned their attention away from UCLA’s Kenny Clark, allowing the Packers to scoop up the best interior defender left on the draft board two picks later.

There sat Burns and Clemson’s Mackensie Alexander when Pittsburgh had to make a decision. Speed could not have been a factor, as both players were timed at 4.46 in the 40-yard-dash. It was not an obvious display of raw power that swayed them, as Burns could only bench press 225 pounds seven times while the Tiger did an equally feeble ten. If it came down to leaping ability, Alexander had Burns trumped (37.5 inches to 31.5).

What it came down to was playmaking ability, something that Pittsburgh sorely lacked from their cornerbacks in 2015. Alexander has never recorded an interception as a collegian and his 23 tackles with five pass deflections last season were hardly first round numbers. Burns posted 36 hits and also broke up five passes, but he intercepted six more and caused two more turnovers via fumbles. Advantage: Burns – in the eyes of the Steelers front office.

Burns is built for speed. He has an angular frame with very good quickness. He shows good hip snap and change of direction agility. He does not take wasted steps in transition and can close on the ball quickly when the play is in front of him. He shows smoothness with his feet in his pedal and has the range to make plays along the sidelines. He shows good hand/eye coordination, but you’d like to see him generate a second gear in order to recover quicker on deep routes. He has valid feet for the position and good arm usage to stick it to receivers in press coverage.

The Hurricane is quick to gain position and sees plays in front of him well. He shows urgency getting to the ball in long pursuit. He is the type that likes to lock on to a receiver’s hip and run with him, rather than give cushion. You only wish that he would make more plays in run support, as he did not show much enthusiasm for getting up to the line. He can react and recognize plays much better when they are in front of him, but has confidence in his speed to close on the ball in a hurry.

Man coverage is what Burns does best. He is active with his hands and has adequate strength to press and reroute the receiver at the line. He stays tight on the receiver through their patterns and has the feet to break on the ball in a hurry, even when his man gets a step on him. He is not the type who will deliver tackles that will take his man out of the game, but is effective at making plays on the ball. He sticks to his man tight coming off the line, but when he gambles, he pays for it by giving up the big play. Still, he generally gets the job done, especially when he keeps his hands active in attempts to redirect.

With Cockrell nothing more than a placeholder at right corner, Burns has a great opportunity to emerge from training camp as the team’s right cornerback. William Gay should have his work cut out trying to stave off a position battle from 2015 second rounder, Senquez Golson, who spent last season on injured reserve. The team will likely keep five corners, leaving 2015 fourth round choice, Doran Grant, as the favorite over street free agents Donald Washington, Al-Hajj Shabazz, and Montell Garner.

Click here to continue reading about the Steelers’ rookie class..

Impact Rookies: Baltimore Ravens

July 19th, 2016 at 10:02am CST by Zachary Links

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with his insight on the Baltimore Ravens’ draft class:

The Ravens brought home a cache of eleven players from the draft proceedings and even with them falling just short of a dozen newcomers, it is obvious that the team really needs to get healthy. With a gaggle of starters and substitutes watching from the sidelines last year, one hopes that Baltimore management took full advantage of Obamacare.

The Ravens would reach a dubious record in 2015, as they placed twenty players on injured reserve, the highest figure in head coach John Harbaugh’s eight seasons at the helm. That total grows when you factor in the players that went down before the season even started. The expanded list includes starting tight end Dennis Pitta, whose hip woes kept him parked in the trainer’s room. The team also placed linebacker Zach Thompson (shoulder) on injured reserve prior to his release.

With that in mind, this look at the Ravens’ impact rookies for 2016 will include the team’s 2015 first-round choice:

2015 First Round Selection – Breshad Perriman, WR (Central Florida, No. 26 overall in 2015)

This series typically focuses on rookies from the 2016 class but, technically, Perriman is still a rookie, having spent his first season on the sidelines with a knee injury. With all of the injuries suffered by his receivers, Harbaugh is going to have a lot of questions he needs answered by that unit during training camp, with Perriman being the biggest question mark.

The Ravens expect that Perriman will be ready for Week 1 after suffering another knee injury this offseason and they are banking on that being an accurate prognosis with Steve Smith still recovering and Darren Waller suspended for the first four games of the season. Perriman, a questionable pick even when he was healthy in 2015, now faces another grueling rehab while his teammates sweat out in the summer heat. A recent MRI revealed that the extent of the recent knee damage would not require reconstructive surgery, but the player who is blessed with great athleticism, still has yet to answer if he is a football player or just a Combine/Pro Day darling.

Perriman’s three seasons at Central Florida produced 115 catches, as his 2,243 aerial yards rest ninth on the school’s career-record chart. He also shares the ninth spot on the all-time chart with sixteen touchdown catches. Now, he hopes that his pro career will produce similar numbers to his father, Brett, who spent ten seasons in the league and recorded 6,589 yards behind 525 receptions that included 30 touchdowns.

Perriman makes good body adjustments to locate the soft spot in the zone. He is a fairly smooth runner, but needs to be quicker in his routes. He is really just a strider who must stay low in his pads to effectively create advantage. He has to do a better job of planting and driving out of his cuts, as he sometimes gathers too much and gears down in doing this. Despite his timed speed (4.52 in the 40-yard dash), he might not have the explosion you look for coming out of his breaks, having to rely upon his size and leaping ability to get to most throws.

Perriman is better served on bubble screens, hitches and post patterns because he takes soft angles rather than sharp 90-degree cuts. Still, he does have the loose hips to change direction and the weave to slip and avoid underneath tackles. When used underneath, he is capable of making better cuts than he does on deep routes. He has quick feet in transition, but just a modest burst to separate. He has more success getting open when he weaves and leverages to move defenders and create space. He is more effective on quick slants and bubble screens due to his long reach.

Perriman will never be confused for a racehorse after catching the ball, as he does not have that explosive separation ability, but he has the functional leg drive to get through initial tackles. He keeps his shoulders square to absorb blows and while he is not a load to bring down in the open, once he gets his legs churning, he can power through.

If the 2015 first rounder does make it back by the season opener, he will likely line up behind Kamar Aiken at the split end position. Aiken led the team with 75 receptions and five touchdowns last year, but that was one of the few bright spots from a unit that placed Baltimore tied for 23rd in the league, as they only scored 21 times through the air. The Ravens receivers failed to get to 37% of Flacco’s passes, either by running poor routes or not concentrating well and that saw the defense take advantage, picking off 21 passes, which tied for third-worst in the league. If healthy, Perriman will have an opportunity to make a mark in his deferred rookie campaign.

Continue reading about the Ravens’ rookie class..

First Round – Ronnie Stanley, OT (Notre Dame, No. 6 overall)

When Laremy Tunsil began his draft day slide, many draft experts had already pulled out their Sharpie and placed the Ole Miss blocker’s name next to Baltimore on their draft board. The Ravens decided they wanted a tackle that might bring a little less turmoil to the locker room and opted for the “safe” pick in Stanley. When the pick was made, there were indications that the Fighting Irish left tackle would begin his career at left guard. Those plans quickly changed, however, when the Ravens cut left tackle Eugene Monroe.

Stanley was named his team’s Offensive Player of the Year, adding several first-team All-American honors, in addition to being named a semifinalist for the Lombardi Award and Outland Trophy. Some scouts felt those honors were based on his 2014 performance and not because of his 2015 numbers. Yes, the left tackle helped lead the way on nineteen touchdown runs over the left side of the field, grading 86.5% for blocking consistency, but he also allowed two sacks among ten total tackles for loss in the backfield.

He also committed some hiccups with his hands as he was called for holding twice and charged with five false starts during his final season. That up-and-down performance saw him flagged four times in the Georgia Tech game and his struggles vs. the speed rush was exposed after Clemson’s Shaq Lawson made four stops for losses in the Notre Dame backfield.

Coaches reason that they can correct Stanley’s “blips,” once they teach him proper hand technique, but he will have to also become more alert to the snap cadence, as false starts hurt the Irish a bit last season. What impresses professional teams the most about Stanley is his size and athleticism. He has that large frame (6:05.6) with massive hands (10 5/8-inch width) and that condor-like wing span (84 ¼-inches) that teams require from their left tackles.

Stanley is also explosive coming off the snap (1.79-second 10-yard dash) and has that “dancing bear” footwork to seal off the edge, when he is successful in maintaining a proper pad level. He generates proper knee bend to redirect and work in-line, where he operates well in unison with his guards and center. With his lateral agility, many scouts feel that if he can generate a better hand technique and more force behind his punch, he could be a dominant force in protecting the pocket’s blind side.

What does frustrate scouts is that with all of his athleticism, Stanley will never be confused for an all-out battler. He is more apt to try and negotiate with a defender on a play, preferring finesse to displaying raw strength. When Stanley shied away from strength test drills at the 2016 NFL Scouting Combine, stating he had a left wrist injury, some teams were concerned. He eased those concerns somewhat during Notre Dame’s Pro Day, putting up the 225-pound bar a respectable 24 times, slightly under the average for the group that performed in the event during their time in Indianapolis (45 participants averaged 24.36 reps).

Fourth Round – Chris Moore, WR (Cincinnati, No. 107)

With Perriman’s status up in the air, the Ravens hedged their bets by drafting another big wideout. Moore, who offers some reminders of former Raven Anquan Boldin, has experience at split end, flanker, and slot receiver. If Smith and Michael Campanaro’s are hindered by their respective injuries, Moore could emerge as a potential All-Rookie candidate.

It is amazing that this Bearcats receiver did not get the national attention he deserves. After all, if you look at the “hidden numbers” that he has produced during his last two seasons in the starting lineup, he ranks with the more heralded elite pass catchers that have went on to the NFL as early round draft selections.

Moore not only holds the school career-record with 26 touchdown receptions, but 24 came since Cincinnati joined the American Athletic Conference, also establishing the league’s all-time mark. Scouts recognize Moore as the best receiver in college when it comes to getting behind the defensive back, as his 26 touchdowns have generated 894 yards, as his average gain of 34.38 yards per touchdown reception (26 scores) also leads active players at all college levels.

Moore has accounted for 40.04% of his receiving yards via touchdowns, joining Devin Smith of Ohio State (30 touchdown catches generated 1,182 yards; 47.22% of his total receiving yards; an average of 39.40 yards per score) as the only receivers to account for 40% of receiving yardage from scoring grabs since the 2000 season. Only Smith (39.4 yards gained per touchdown reception) and Moore (34.38 yards per scoring grab) have averaged more than 34 yards per touchdown catch in a career since the 2010 college football schedule.

Moore has outstanding quickness, agility and balance. He gets to top speed in a hurry and maintains acceleration throughout his routes. He has that quick second gear burst as a receiver and is a definite threat coming out of the backfield on fly sweeps and curls that defenses must account for him on every play. With his exceptional timed speed he can accelerate away from anyone, especially when given space, but needs to continue adding bulk and needed strength, as he does not always beat a physical jam or win battles for the ball in tight areas.

The former Bearcat plays with suddenness and has the lateral agility to come out of his breaks cleanly, which makes him quite effective on sweeps. With his rare timed speed, he can stretch the field from the split end position and he also has the foot quickness and balance to work the short area coming out of the slot. He has loose hips in and out of his breaks, along with the body control and vision to separate once he executes his second gear. It is his excellent initial quickness that makes it tough for cornerbacks to remain in their pedal for too long and if the opponent gives him a cushion, he has no problem absorbing it and getting behind his man.

Moore shows a sudden burst off the snap and gets into his patterns with no wasted steps. He possesses the leaping ability and acceleration to get vertical and extend for the ball in a crowd, showing true courage sacrificing his body to compete for the jump balls. He has excellent hip snap, dropping his weight and keeping his pads down to accelerate instantly coming out of his cuts. He has fine balance in his running stride, executing crisp plant-and-drive skills to get in and out of his breaks.

Moore has that verified track speed needed to immediately burst into his routes. He eats up the cushion in an instant and with his fluid lateral agility, he maintains stride on slants and screens. When he is up against the press, it is rare to see him take false steps or cock his arms before firing off the snap. Sometimes, that speed gets him into trouble, as he runs so fast, he might miss a cut, but he never looks sloppy trying to plant-and-drive.

He is a quick accelerator who shows suddenness off the snap. Once he gets in the open field, few defenders can mirror him. You can see on film his suddenness when changing direction and he has that second gear needed to generate the up field burst. He can create lanes, but has to make sure he does not get too busy at the X’s, even though he is the type that can win battles vs. the jam.

All in all, Moore could prove to be a brilliant pick for GM Ozzie Newsome & Co.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Impact Rookies: Cincinnati Bengals

July 18th, 2016 at 8:55am CST by Zachary Links

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with his insight on the Cincinnati Bengals’ draft class:

The Bengals are soon to reap the benefits from another solid draft, as the first four selections in 2016 all appear to be of starting quality. Their cache from the 2015 draft saw all ten of those selections play for the team last year. They were so impressed with one of their late round finds, that the team let go several key pieces in their secondary to bring fresh legs into the fold. Now, all seven of their draft picks in 2016 have the same opportunity as the previous draft class to claim roster spots.

First Round – William Jackson III, CB (Houston, No. 24)

The Bengals let Leon Hall walk in order to keep Adam Jones, as the right cornerback signed a three-year deal that keeps him in the fold until 2019. The team will make a strong effort to keep Dre Kirkpatrick around as the left cornerback, but he is a free agent after the season and might be in line for a big deal if he can improve upon his 2015 performance.

In 2015, the Bengals covered their potential loss of Andre Smith by drafting two tackles. This year, the Bengals tapped William Jackson III as insurance against Kirkpatrick’s possible departure. If Kirkpatrick goes, then Jackson and 2014 first-round pick Darqueze Dennard will be counted upon to lead the secondary in 2017 and beyond.

Jackson was considered a “lockdown corner” for the Houston Cougars after he appeared in thirteen games and finished second in the American Athletic Conference with ten pass breakups in 2014. He also picked off two passes and tallied 37 tackles. Last season, the All-American led the nation and set a Houston single-season record with 23 pass deflections. He also led the nation in passes defended with 28, finishing 20th with five interceptions. He concluded his career ranked third on the UH career passes broken up chart with 40, despite only playing three seasons.

Some other “good news” numbers include Jackson recording six turnovers and coming up with 22 third-down stops. On the “bad news” scale, while he defended so many passes, it could be due to quarterbacks constantly throwing into his area. The Cougar was targeted 93 times in 2016, allowing 41 receptions (44.09%) for 460 yards, an average of 11.22 yards per grab, with receivers totaling seven big plays (20 yards or longer) and twenty first downs vs. the defender, reaching the end zone three times. In run support, he made just five tackles.

Jackson is certainly not going to impress you with being a great physical presence on the field, but he does demonstrate excellent speed (4.37 in the 40-yard dash) and jump- ball timing. He is very consistent in being “getting into the face” of a receiver. He opens his hips well when asked to handle switch-offs on deep patterns and moves well in space, but he certainly lacks any sort of punch and physicality when required to deliver press coverage (recorded ten reps in the 225-pound bench press drill). His leaping ability helps him get to most balls though and he always seems to get his hands on the pigskin, even when he isn’t in great position.

Jackson fails to sink his hips low enough or explode into his hits when asked to wrap and tackle in run support. Still, as a pass defender, his timing is impeccable, evident by his nation-leading 28 passes defended that included five interceptions in 2015.

Read more about the Bengals’ 2016 rookie class..

Second Round – Tyler Boyd, WR (Pittsburgh, No. 55 overall)

If not for the “double whammy” losses in the secondary, perhaps the Bengals would have used their first round selection to take a wide receiver. All signs pointed to Cincinnati going that route, especially after they lost valuable A.J. Green wingman Marvin Jones in free agency. Jones accounted for 65 receptions, including thirteen for twenty yards or longer, but scored just four times. The team also saw Mohamed Sanu bolt out the door into the free agent market, but felt they could afford to lose a player that failed to score last year and averaged 9.9 yards on 33 grabs. The problem is, take those two away from the equation, along with Green’s performance, and the rest of the wide receiver unit accounted for three catches and 74 yards last season.

Cincinnati had an effective, yet ho-hum passing attack that ranked No. 15 in the nation with an average of 245.2 yards per game, but Andy Dalton kept mistakes to a minimum, as only three teams in the league threw more interceptions than the Bengals (nine). If a receiver was their first round target, the war room had to let out a few “growls” as they saw three receivers go back-to-back-to-back right in front of them before selecting Jackson instead with the 24th choice. The Texans took the speedy William Fuller out of Notre Dame at No. 21, followed by the Redskins snatching up Josh Doctson at No. 22. Then, the Vikings decided to take a physical pass catcher in Laquon Treadwell at No. 23 rather than the safety that they needed.

Perhaps it is fitting that for a team looking for a tough as nails receiver, they found one in a Steel City, where the Pitt’s Tyler Boyd had not only rewritten all the school career receiving records by Larry Fitzgerald, but has often been compared to that city’s other “favorite son,” Hines Ward. Boyd was the best receiver that the ACC featured during the last two seasons, even though he did not exactly set the field ablaze, as most of his receptions were under ten yards. Perhaps his average yards gained after the catch was the result of overuse in 2015. Boyd was suspended for the season opener, but still pulled in 91 passes for a 10.2-yard average and six scores. But he also had 40 carries for an 8.7 yard average, returned eight punts and averaged 23.4 yards on eleven kickoff returns.

Boyd has a knack for catching waist-high passes without breaking stride. He does a good job of tracking the ball downfield and can haul in over-the- shoulder catches with ease. He times his jumps fairly well and shows above-average body control in the air, extending his arms properly to snatch the ball out of the air when going up for jump balls. He explodes off the line and has the second gear to run past cornerbacks when he doesn’t get slowed down at the line of scrimmage.

The former Pitt wide-out is not a sudden mover (1.63 in the 10-yard dash), but shows good change of direction, body control and the ability to adjust on the move, thanks to above average hand/eye coordination. He is the type of player who can fool a scouting analysis, as he normally outplays his ability. He lacks explosion, but runs with a long, fluid stride and has the change-of- direction agility to become a threat with the ball in his hands. He won’t win a track meet, but his stride generates decent quickness that compensates for a lack of blazing speed. He is a physical athlete with good strength for this position and is a very dangerous producer turning the corner on reverses out of the backfield.

Route running is what Boyd does best. He is a savvy performer with the lateral agility to take slants or crosses and generate separation, especially when he sinks his hips. He has a much better lateral burst working in the short area, but can get caught from behind. He does a nice job of sticking his feet in the ground and dropping his weight to get in and out of his cuts, but can’t be considered a special open field runner. He runs good routes and looks polished, as he can leverage, plant and cut, but could stand to improve his separation burst.

Third Round – Nick Vigil, LB (Utah State, No. 87)

Folks in Cincinnati, you are going to fall in love with this kid, but bring a fire extinguisher to the game – as he plays under that old adage – like his hair is on fire. The coaches also know they might have gotten the steal of the draft and the best part about his game is, he can play anywhere in the second level. The signing of Cleveland castoff Karlos Dansby to replace 2015 starter Emmanuel Lamur might be a one-and-done deal in 2016. First, the former Brown is more suited for the inside, and might face a challenge from Vincent Rey for strong-side outside duties.

Middle linebacker Rey Maualuga has had an up-and-down career, but he’s on the books for two more years at $5MM per, leaving Rey and Nick Vigil to battle for playing time when the former USC star needs a breather. At least, that is the current game plan. When you see that their other starter, Vontaze Burfict is one step closer to getting the commissioner to come down on him for his dirty play tactics, it is wise to have a versatile player like Vigil ready to step into any situation.

Vigil has above average agility, body control and balance. He shows very good explosion (4.62 in the 40-yard dash) and acceleration, quick feet and fluid change of direction skills. He is very flexible, displaying ease of movement working his way down the line. He has excellent field instincts and despite playing in three different defensive schemes during his time at Utah State, he quickly absorbed each playbook. He is capable of making all the calls and adjustments up front and is very aware of each of his teammates’ assignments.

Needless to say and evident by his college numbers, Vigil is an aggressive tackler who uses his lower body strength to drive through ball carriers. He will face up, drag down and wrap up in pursuit. He won’t punish his opponent due to a lack of playing strength, but is very effective making tackles that the ball carrier will not slip off of. He shows very good body control in the move and takes good angles to seal off the corners. With his high amount of tackles behind the line of scrimmage, he is a verified “hammer” type that will simply explode and punish the ball carrier.

Fourth Round – Andrew Billings, DT (Baylor, No. 122 overall)

Lightning may have struck the Bengals twice at the nose guard position. Back in 2010, a stout interior defender was not regarded as highly by general managers as their scouts. As luck would have it, the Bengals took a chance in the fourth round that year and found Geno Atkins. Now, six years later, they might have found the player who could replace Domata Peko at nose tackle, perhaps as early as next year. If Billings proves to be starter material in training camp, the front office might be comfortable with letting Peko go elsewhere after this season.

Peko is unsigned past 2017, drawing in $4.5MM, but he’s north of age-40 and has played for a decade. Atkins still has four years left on a five-year, $53MM deal, so he is expected to keep up his frenzied sack pace from 2015. But, behind those two, Billings sees a great opportunity for playing time.

For a player of his size, Billings shows an incredible burst and quickness off the snap. Not only is he sudden in his movements, but he is also fluid. He displays excellent balance and body control working down the line and is a constant disruptive force with the suddenness he generates getting off the ball to penetrate. His speed allows him to make lots of tackles on the move, but he was really misused in the Baylor system, as they relied upon him more to use his strength to overpower and take on double teams often rather than utilize his explosive initial step to pressure the pocket and impact the action in the backfield.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Impact Rookies: Miami Dolphins

July 14th, 2016 at 1:00pm CST by Zachary Links

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with his insight on the Miami Dolphins’ draft class:

Well, I must say, the folks in South Beach surely know how to make draft day proceedings interesting. On Day One, they somehow managed to walk away with a player most had been calling the best prospect in the draft – Mississippi offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil. Tunsil slid to the Dolphins at No. 13 due to a myriad of off-field issues back in college that was capped by a social media disaster (love your head gear, Laremy, but in the NFL, you have to wear a Riddell model).

The Dolphins entered the draft with eight selections and went home with the same, but they played a little bit of musical chairs in swapping out draft slots before they were done. They even ended playing doing ping-pong with the No. 186 overall selection in round six. Miami had first made a deal with Minnesota, sending two mid-round 2017 slots, along with pick No. 186 to the Vikings in order to move up and select Rutgers receiver Leonte Caroo with the draft’s 86th pick (round three). As the draft continued, the two teams again came to a deal – this time, Minnesota returned that No. 186 selection to South Beach for the No. 196 and No. 227 overall choices. They then used that choice to snatch another receiver, taking Texas Tech’s Jakeem Grant.

After an entertaining and active draft weekend, here are the Dolphins rookies that I expect to make a mark in 2016:

First Round – Laremy Tunsil, OT (Ole Miss, No. 13 overall)

The new Miami coaching staff is looking to make major changes to their offensive front wall and Tunsil, if he lives up to his college hype, could be that unit’s foundation, much like high-priced veteran Ndamukong Suh is for the defensive line. Despite some poor decisions in life, there is no questioning Tunsil’s talent, but now comes the task of getting him into the lineup from Day One.

The coaches have slotted the rookie into the left guard spot, lining him up next to a man he will eventually replace at left tackle – Branden Albert. Gone from the first unit is 2015 left guard starter, Dallas Thomas. The team also signed New Orleans castoff, Jermon Bushrod. If the former Saint has anything left in the tank, he gives the Dolphins left side of the line three capable bodies to move around, if injuries do occur during the season.

Continue reading about Tunsil and the rest of the Dolphins’ rookie class..

Tunsil’s arrival also pushed Billy Turner into a battle for the right guard position, where former Bills starter Kraig Urbik is expected to do battle. Thomas is still around, but like Turner, he’s failed to impress in his time on the field. If the team is looking to take the “penny saved, dollar earned” approach, Thomas ($787K) or Turner ($712K) in 2016, could give way to former Niner Anthony Steen, who is commanding a $525K sum in 2016. With Urbik signed for $1.25MM and Bushrod taking home $1.5MM, it is hard to see Thomas or Turner being considered starting material any longer.

Tunsil leaves the Rebel program having allowed only two quarterback sacks through twenty-nine appearances that included twenty-seven starting assignments at the demanding left tackle position. During his time in the trenches, he has registered 249 knockdown/key blocks, including 37 that resulted in touchdowns. He has shown excellent stalking ability, producing nineteen of those blocks down field. He registered a blocking consistency grade of 89.38% for his three-year performance, easily the highest grade attained by any blocker eligible for the 2016 NFL Draft.

Tunsil has natural strength and quickness, as his 40-yard dash clocking does not properly highlight that quick initial step he possesses that can consistently shock and stall a lethargic defender. He shows excellent balance and change of direction flexibility, along with outstanding acceleration when working into the second level, perhaps due to his prep experience on the basketball court and in track. He plays on his feet well, thanks to superb balance and shows the body control to play and adjust in space and pick up blocks on the move down field. He can slide and readjust to mirror edge rushers in pass protection.

The Ole Miss blocker also displays the lower body flexibility to drop his pads and anchor firmly versus stunts and the bull rush. He shows ease of movement accelerating into the second level and excellent change of direction agility to make plays working down the line. He plays with a strong base, keeping his feet wide and pad level low to generate enough explosiveness coming off the snap. He has the lateral range to make adjustments in his pass set. Tunsil bends his knees with good flexibility and shows that he has the quickness to get out on the edge and seal off the rush (see 2015 Auburn, Louisiana State, and Oklahoma State games). He has the agility to pull and trap with effectiveness from the outside position and displays good hand usage and the redirection skills to mirror on stunts and blitzes.

Historically, Ole Miss is not really known for being a feeding ground for blocking expertise. Since the universal draft in 1970, only ten Rebel offensive tackles have been drafted, with 1971 seventh round pick Worthy McClure the first one to be taken. McClure would be one of four Ole Miss offensive tackles who were drafted, only to never appear in an NFL regular season game.

The Ole Miss first tackle draftee since 1970 to actually perform professionally was 1993 fifth round pick, Everett Lindsay, who was taken 133rd overall in the fifth round by Minnesota. In 136 contests, he started 63 times before retiring after the 2003 schedule. Todd Wade was a second round choice by Miami in 2000, earning 96 starting assignments through 99 games during his eight-year career. Cincinnati followed in 2004 by taking Stacy Andrews with the 123rd pick. Injuries would limit the powerhouse blocker to just 49 starts before he was forced to retire in 2011.

Ole Miss may not have the best track record for tackles, but Tunsil could be the guy to snap the cold streak.

Second Round – Xavien Howard, CB (Baylor, No. 38 overall)

With Brent Grimes and his wife’s eloquent messages on social media thankfully a thing in the past, at least in South Beach, the Dolphins new they had to make cornerback a top priority. Word in the scouting industry was that they had coveted the Giants’ Eli Apple, but when he went three picks earlier, it was a no-brainer either way that they could not pass on Tunsil for any defensive back at No. 13. By the time the second round rolled around, Miami was ready to pounce on Howard, a player several other teams pegged as a rising player with late first round potential.

Sensing that the Giants might go for another cornerback in the second round and knowing full-well that Baltimore intended to take one, Miami moved up four spots in the second round in a deal with the Ravens, giving up the No. 42 overall pick and a fourth rounder (No. 104 overall) to get the deal done. Wasting little time, Howard was slotted in as the Dolphins’ starting right cornerback before the ink could dry on his contract.

The two-time All-Big Twelve Conference cornerback was a key member of Baylor’s most successful four-year span in school history that included two conference championships, two bowl victories and 40 wins (22-3 home mark) in four seasons. As a starter, Howard helped the starting right corner, he helped the Bears record a 32-7 record, finishing his career ranked tenth on the school record chart with ten interceptions. He paced the squad with five thefts as a senior and tied for the title with four more his junior year. All told, he collected 98 tackles (84 solo) with 23 pass deflections, gaining 121 yards via his interception runbacks.

Howard is the perfect NFL press-cover cornerback, thanks to his combination of size, strength and speed. He needs to be more patient in man coverage, as he gets in a lot of trouble when he attacks the ball, rather than keep relationship with his coverage assignment. Then, he will come up with a big play, make proper reads versus the receiver’s move and react quickly. He possesses quick feet and smooth hips to turn and run, doing a nice job of maintaining contact with most any receiver down the sideline. He’s the type than can close well when playing off the line, as he attacks the midsection of ball carriers and receivers while staying low in his pads to wrap and tackle.

Seventh Round – Brandon Doughty, QB (Western Kentucky, No. 223 overall)

I’m not trying to be funny here, folks, but don’t you find it a bit interesting that the coach known as the “Quarterback Whisperer,” Adam Gase, has a starting quarterback who has been dogged by the press for not living up to his first round status in Ryan Tannehill? After all, last year, a Tannehill-led offense ranked 19th in the league in passing yards (3,811) and pass completion percentage (62.1), tied for 19th with 24 touchdowns, tied for 17th worst with twelve interceptions and ranked as the eighth-worst team in protecting the quarterback, allowing 45 sacks for a league-worst minus 420 yards.

Miami finished 26th in total offense (331.7 ypg), 30th in third down conversions (30.7%; 63-of-205) and 29th in time of possession (27:22 minutes). The result was a paltry 88.7 quarterback rating for Tannehill. Right now, the coaching staff is saying all the right things, but while he appears to be a longshot, this seventh rounder might be making a big move up the depth charts in Miami before long. With Matt Moore and Zac Dysert as his competition, Doughty has a pretty good chance for at least holding the clipboard in 2016, if the team keeps three quarterbacks, as expected.

After being granted a medical hardship waiver and a sixth year of eligibility, Doughty lived up to lofty 2015 expectations and surpassed even his record-shattering performance from 2014. The owner of 37 school records, he again led the country in passing yards (5,055) and touchdown passes (48) and added another national-best mark, completion percentage (71.9). He also became just the third quarterback in the last 50 years to lead the country in all three categories, joining Colt Brennan (Hawaii, 2006) and Steve Young (BYU, 1983).

Doughty quarterbacked the Hilltoppers to their first-ever FBS conference championship, first-ever Associated Press Top 25 ranking and a second consecutive bowl victory. The Hilltoppers dominated C-USA play, winning by an average margin of 27.1 points, the second-largest margin by a league champion ever. They were also the first team to go undefeated in conference play and win the championship game. Doughty threw for at least 200 yards in all 14 games and a FBS-best’s of 10 games of 300-yards or more and six games of 400-yards or more.

Doughty not only impressed teams throughout the East-West Shrine Game practices, but carried that performance over to the 2016 NFL Scouting Combine. With his production numbers, he has shown that he can attack the middle of the field, but there are obvious mechanical flaws, especially when trying to zip the ball. He just seems to lack great velocity and must rely more on timing. He can be rattled in the pocket and when this happens, his footwork gets sloppy and he forces his throws (33 interceptions the last three years). Still, you can imagine Gase getting the most out of this interesting prospect. It would only add to the coach’s “quarterback whisperer” legend, if this ends as a happy story.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Impact Rookies: Buffalo Bills

July 13th, 2016 at 1:49pm CST by Zachary Links

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with his insight on the Buffalo Bills’ draft class:

There is a strange silence coming out of Bills camp – head coach Rex Ryan has yet to boast about his team’s Super Bowl prospects. The coach who thrives on positive thinking is spending the wee hours of the day huddled with his twin brother, Rob, hoping they can come up for a formula to improve their suspect run defense. Until they get that front wall operating on all cylinders, they can not even consider a postseason run with a unit that ranked 17th in the league in stopping the run (108.1 ypg), but allowed an average of 4.4 yards per carry. Only seven other teams allowed opponents a higher mark.

Additionally, their Rolls Royce-priced defensive line could not manage to get to the quarterback, as the only team to register fewer sacks that the Bills (21) were the Falcons (19). At least the Ryans shed the locker room of a high priced veteran who almost wrecked their salary cap in Mario Williams. The NFL’s version of the NBA’s Dwight Howard (I think I’m much better than anybody, so why go and prove it?) was dispatched to Miami, cutting a budget albatross that went to the bank to the tune of $19.4MM last year. He rewarded them with nineteen tackles and five sacks in fifteen starting assignments.

Williams was not the only front wall defender that should have felt somewhat feel embarrassed cashing a paycheck last year. Nose tackle Marcell Dareus recorded 51 tackles and got to the quarterback twice, earning an average of $16.1MM/year with $60MM guaranteed on a deal that runs through 2022. His projected running mate inside, Kyle Williams, garnered a $7.4MM dollar check for 14 tackles and one sack. The aging and injured veteran has a $4.5MM guarantee in the bank, but looms as a roster casualty in camp, especially with rookie Adolphus Washington showing the coaches more than enough to be listed with the first team on the depth chart entering training camp.

While Jerry Hughes tied Mario Williams for the team lead with five sacks in addition to making 52 tackles, it came with a price tag average of nine million with $22MM guaranteed through the 2020 season. Behind him, linebacker Manny Lawson secured three million from the Bills and found just one quarterback in the backfield last year. All told, the team saw eight defensive tackles take home ~16.33% of their cap in 2015. Only Jacksonville ($24,389,776; 16.34% of cap) doled out more money to their interior defenders in the NFL last year.

Their paltry pass rush only cost the team 6.97% of their cap to pay off their defensive ends (21st in the NFL) and their outside linebackers received just 3.18% of the team’s cap funds (31st in the league). You get what you pay for, my grandmother always told me. To rectify that problem, it looks like the Bills went for a long-term solution, but at a possible cost at receiving immediate dividends from their top draft choice in 2016.

Continue reading about the Bills’ rookie class..

First Round- Shaq Lawson, DE/OLB (Clemson, No. 19 overall)

Labeled a Top Ten player during the 2015 season, Lawson saw some of his luster disappear once he arrived in Indianapolis for the NFL Scouting Combine. He was injured late in the year and then hurt his knee during Clemson’s postseason run, but he wound up being flagged for his suspect shoulder. Every team gets an opportunity to evaluate players with their own medical staff. Despite less than encouraging reports when Lawson was re-examined back in Indianapolis prior to the draft, when Lawson slid to the Bills at No. 19, Ryan and staff did not hesitate to get their card into the commissioner’s hands.

By May, the Bills took the high road in addressing Lawson’s condition to the media, defending their reasons to draft a guy with a bum wing. They revealed that this was not an injury that just happened, explaining that Lawson played three seasons at Clemson with the issue. They recognized that he is a serious PUP candidate, which would put him on the sidelines for at least the early part of the season.

By having the first rounder undergo surgery now, they wanted to eliminate any chance for the injury becoming a much bigger problem down the road and turning into a long-term issue. Surgery was determined to be the only solution after Lawson reportedly tweaked the shoulder during a voluntary practice while making a swim move on a tackling dummy, leading to him going under the knife in May.

Rex Ryan had to have insider information on the extent of the injury before drafting Lawson, as he had a pipeline to the Clemson locker room, where his son is a member of the football team. The player who immediately benefits from Lawson’s extended summer vacation will be Jets castoff IK Enemkpali, who is otherwise penciled in for a reserve role. As the Jets Geno Smith will vouch for, we all know that the new Bills starting end can pack a punch, but Lawson’s injury could also benefit another veteran looking for one last chance to grab the brass ring.

Lawson will still have an effect on this year’s roster, but it might not occur until after the season, when the Bills determine if the money they dished out to receive marginal results in 2015 will lead to cutting those same culprits if they fail to right the ship under the Ryan Twins in 2016.

When healthy, Lawson has been a terror – whether in a relief role or during his lone year as a starter. Through his first two seasons, he recorded 79 tackles (47 solos), an impressive figure for relief duties. However, he delivered 23 of those tackles for losses and brought down eleven other opponents for no gains on running plays. He also registered twenty-one third-down stops from 2013- 14 and recorded five touchdown-saving tackles. Opposing runners were limited to minus 40 yards on 56 running plays directed at the defender. Only four of 32 passes targeted into his area were completed (12.5%), as nine of his twenty quarterback pressures came on third down snaps during his freshman and sophomore campaigns, with three of those hurries causing interceptions, two causing fumbles and another leading to a sack.

Replacing an All-American like Vic Beasley was a tall task for any young player and while Beasley is well remembered by Tigers fans, Lawson helped them move on quickly with his remarkable success attacking the pocket during his junior season. Throughout the 2015 regular season schedule, he was dominant. The first-time full-time starter was leading the nation with 23.5 stops behind the line of scrimmage, the eighth-best season total in school annals.

Along the way, Lawson recorded 10.5 sacks, which is tied for sixth on the Tigers annual record list. He produced a career-best 79 tackles (59 solos) and has limited ball carriers to minus 80 yards on 53 running plays directed at him. In addition to his impressive tackle-for- loss figures, he stopped ball carriers at the line of scrimmage for no gain on twelve other rushing attempts, including four times vs. the powerful Florida State running corps. The national championship game vs. Alabama was spent more on the sidelines, as his postseason play was curtailed by a knee sprain.

Second Round – Reggie Ragland, LB (Alabama, No. 41 overall)

Somewhere in heaven, Buddy Ryan is smiling down on the Bills complex, singing out “attaboy” to his kids, as the Bills might have a linebacker in the version of what Buddy had during his Chicago days. No, I’m not putting Ragland in the Mike Singletary category – at least not yet. If you look back at Rex’s history with linebackers like David Harris, Bart Scott, and his frenzied crowd of ‘backers from the Ravens days, you’ll find that having a smart, instinctive player in the middle of the second level has become a Ryan family Staple.

It is already being mentioned that Ragland will be the guy calling defensive signals this year. The plan is to have the Tide standout join Preston Brown to give the Bills a formidable 1-2 inside punch that can tip the scales well past the 250-pound mark, each. Ragland led the Tide in tackles seven times during his lone season in the middle last year. He paced the team with 102 tackles and was a near unanimous All-American selection.

If Jarran Reed was the “backbone” of the Crimson Tide’s front wall, Ragland would have to be considered the defense’s heartbeat, as he seemed to elevate the play of all around him in 2015. The consensus All-American and Southeastern Conference Defensive Player of the Year led the team to the national championship, pacing the squad with 102 tackles in 2015. He was a typical “old school” middle linebacker, directing traffic from the center of the field and roaming from sideline-to-sideline.

While some might be concerned that Ragland made only 6.5 tackles-for-loss last year and has generated only five sacks through 53 games, his basic assignment was to conduct traffic, plug inside rush lanes and handle second level pass coverage assignments. As for penetrating the back-field, opponents were more likely to be stopped by the linebacker’s sudden force. Even though his tackle-for-loss total as a senior (just 17.5 for his career), he took down fifteen ball carriers at the line of scrimmage for no gain last year.

Additionally, he limited opposing running attacks to an average of 1.12 yards per carry vs. him last season, his first year manning the middle slot. Ragland took over weak-side outside linebacker duties after C.J. Mosley left for the NFL in 2014 and proceeded to deliver 95 tackles through thirteen starts, posting 10.5 stops behind the line of scrimmage. He had previously spent his first two seasons with the reserves, compiling 25 tackles through his first 24 contests.

Ragland’s arrival could not come at a better time for the Bills. They thought they had found their weak-side starter when 2012 fourth-round pick, Nigel Bradham emerged to produce 104 tackles and 2.5 sacks in 2014. In his contract year, Bradham, like the rest of the team’s front seven, saw his numbers drop sharply – 59 tackles and one sack. Soon after the veteran free agency period opened, Bradham was sporting a two-year contract to become a member of the Philadelphia Eagles. After seeing his replacement excel in mini-camp with Ragland surprising even the Ryans with how quickly he picked up the complex blitz packages, you can imagine the coaches whispering as Bradham left, “nice to know you – don’t let the door hit you on the way out.”

Third Round – Adolphus Washington, DT (Ohio State, No. 80 overall)

Actually, the Bills third round pick could see another veteran join Bradham on getting the “bring out your dead” treatment. Already listed as the team’s right defensive tackle, Washington was well on his way to first round status with his first half performance in 2015. After eight games, unfortunately, Washington saw bottom drop out on his season.

Through his first seven 2015 appearances, Washington scored on an interception, blocked a kick, averaged seven tackles per game, made twelve touchdown-saving stops on goal-line stands, recorded three sacks with six more stops behind the line of scrimmage and fourteen quarterback pressures. During his last five contests, he averaged three tackles per game and a total of one sack. On 45 running plays through the first half, opponents were held to minus 30 yards vs. the nose tackle. In his final five games, they gained 88 yards on 18 tries.

Compounding his “fall from grace” was his arrest for soliciting a prostitute, which led head coach Urban Meyer to suspend him from the bowl season. Washington concluded his career on a sour note, but was able to gain back favor from NFL by dominating at the Senior Bowl, Scouting Combine, and Ohio State’s Pro Day. Still, he would like to forget that second part of 2015, as third round money is petty cash compared to what he would have pulled in as a first round consideration.

With Washington on board, you have to wonder if Kyle Williams’ days in Buffalo are coming to an end. If he is still dealing with injury issues, the team could have serious depth problems at the interior defensive line spots. With Washington and Dareus as the starters, only Corbin Bryant is a capable reserve, if Williams is not ready for action. The rest of the motley crew of camp players includes Leger Souzable, a San Francisco castoff, T.J. Barnes, who was in camp when Rex was with the Jets and Jerrel Worthy.

Worthy seems to have fallen into the Henny Youngman mode (take my defensive lineman, please). Ever since the Packers actually traded up to take him in the second round of the 2012 draft, he has been found wanting in Green Bay, cut from the Patriots practice squad after the Pack had seen enough of him a year later, only to be signed by Kansas City to their practice unit. Let go by the Chiefs, he was a member of Detroit’s practice squad in 2014, but they did not shed a tear when he took an offer to be in the Bills camp this summer.

Washington might be the most crucial rookie pick-up for Buffalo, as they need to rectify their issues up front. Dawson might not be ready to go until the earliest, at midseason, if even then. Ragland will handle signal-calling duties, but the Ohio State rookie needs to play like a veteran, or Rex and brother might have a defense similar to 2015.

If his scouting report holds true, Washington’s wide hips and thick lower body, it is very tough for blockers to gain movement off the snap vs. him, making him a virtual immovable object at the three-technique assignment. He shows excellent balance, quickness (4.87 40-yard dash) and burst off the snap. He plays with good urgency and has the long reach and hand placement to easily sidestep low blocks. He changes direction smoothly and closes in a hurry when working his way down the line. He has the leaping ability and reach to deflect passes at the line of scrimmage and when he keeps his pads down, he can generate a very quick push off the snap to penetrate and shoot the gaps.

For a player of his size, he demonstrates very loose hips, which allow him to slip off blocks and redirect without needing to gather. He has those quick short steps that lets him gain advantage on a lethargic blocker and shows nice flexibility and acceleration in long pursuit. Few three-tech players have his outstanding quickness and agility, as he shows excellent body flexibility when changing direction.

On the field, Washington shows keen awareness to the play developing. He is more of a run containment type, but has the savvy and agility to slip blocks and wreak havoc in the backfield, evident by causing four interceptions chasing quarterbacks out of the pocket last season (see Penn State, Minnesota and Alabama games). He has also excelled in the classroom, earning OSU scholar-athlete recognition. He is quick to find the football in pursuit and is not the type that will bite on play action or misdirection.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Impact Rookies: New England Patriots

July 12th, 2016 at 1:46pm CST by Zachary Links

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with his insight on the New England Patriots’ draft class:

In a tradition started by Jimmy Johnson during his days with Dallas, lots of NFL teams use what is called a draft “value board” in their war rooms. Based on the selections made by the coaching genius of Bill Belichick, analysts might be scratching their heads over the Patriots’ decisions during this past draft.

Deflategate left the team with no choice in the opening round, but in what has been Belichick’s pattern over the years, he put on his “Trader Jack” hat before and during the draft proceedings in attempts to improve his roster. In mid-March, the team made a surprising move, trading away one of the defense’s cornerstones in Chandler Jones for oft-injured offensive guard Jonathan Cooper and a second-round draft pick.

The Patriots flipped that No. 61 overall pick to the Saints, netting the Saints’ third (No. 78) and fourth-round (No. 112) selections. Even with Cooper in the fold and starters Shaquille Mason (left side) and Tre’ Jackson (right) stationed as the starters, New England added to their guard cache in the third round by taking North Carolina State’s Joe Thuney. Thuney is likely to caddy for Shaquille Mason on the left side and while he could prove to be a reliable backup, he’s not likely to make waves in 2016. However, we do see these two Pats rookies leaving a mark in their first NFL season:

Continue reading about the Patriots’ rookie class..

Second Round – Cyrus Jones, DB (Alabama, No. 60 overall)

The Patriots ranked ninth in the NFL in total defense last year, as their front seven put on a performance that helped New England hold opponents to 98.8 yards per game rushing, the eighth lowest figure in the league. The pass defense? Not so great, as New England was 16th overall, yielding 240.7 aerial yards per contest. They ranked just 20th in interceptions (12) and the 24 touchdowns allowed by their secondary tied for 19th in the league. They allowed 60.6% of the passes thrown to be completed, ranking 23rd in the NFL. Heading into the draft, the Patriots were determined to improve their secondary.

It seems like the secondary pieces are constantly changing in New England, the team’s own version of musical chairs. Jones is a valuable addition to the cornerback unit. Currently, the Pats feature small college wonder Malcolm Butler (left side) and Logan Ryan (right) as the starters, but little, if any depth behind them. Enter the Tide performer, who is still really a neophyte at the defensive position.

Two years removed from a switch from receiver to cornerback, Jones flourished as an All-SEC performer in 2014, but his 2015 campaign saw him establish himself as one of the nation’s most dangerous punt returners while continuing his consistent play as one of college football’s top cornerbacks.

Jones flourished as he had had two interceptions and eight pass breakups on the season to go with 37 tackles, including four tackles for a loss (-16 yards) in 2015. He returned 42 punts for a total of 530 yards for an average of 12.6 yards per return. Four of those punt returns were taken to the house for touchdowns, including a 57-yard return against Michigan State, a 69-yard touchdown at Mississippi State, and 43- and 72-yard returns against Charleston Southern. His 530 return yards rank second all-time in Alabama single-season history. Additionally, he anchored a secondary that ranked eighth nationally and second in the SEC in pass efficiency defense.

Defensively, it appears that Jones has a lot to offer the Pats. Butler is a rising star, but there are rumblings that he is not too pleased with his current contract. He delivered 67 tackles, picked off two passes and broke up 17 other throws last year, while Ryan made four thefts, knocking down 18 other balls, and posting 74 stops. Five other cornerbacks on the depth chart combined for 42 tackles and five pass deflections. All told, Jones should have no problem in at least holding down the key cornerback reserve spot when he takes on Justin Coleman, Darryl Roberts, Jonathan Jones, E.J. Biggers, and Cre’von LeBlanc.

Danny Amendola is also pleased to see Jones come on board. The oft-injured receiver should be relieved of punt return duties now that the former Tide returner is in the fold. New England ranked eighth in the nation with a 10.1-yard punt return average last year, with Amendola producing at a 12.0-yard level, but reaching the end zone, at least at the frantic pace Jones delivered last year, is something that Patriots fans have been accustomed to over the years.

Could Jones spark memories of greats from the past like Dave Meggett (142 returns for 1,438 yards; 1995-97) and Troy Brown (252 for 2,625 yards and three scores; 1993-2007). Or, could he challenge team record holder Julian Edelman (four touchdowns on 142 runbacks for 1,697 yards)? Any resemblance to either of this trio will be more than enough to please Belichick.

Seventh Round – Devin Lucien, WR (Arizona State, No. 225 overall)

Late in the draft, the Pats took Lucien, a former UCLA product who led the Sun Devils with 66 receptions for 1,078 yards and eight touchdowns last year and concluded his college career by hauling in 163 balls for 2,260 yards (13.9 ypc) and sixteen touchdowns during his two tours of duty.

Belichick likes his receivers big and the ASU product offers range at 6’2″. It also helps Lucien’s case that Amendola is dealing with an array of injuries and rumor has it that Nate Washington has failed to impress coaches so far this offseason. Not only can Lucien make the roster – he can move his way up the WR depth chart faster than initially expected.

If Amendola is healthy, the Patriots’s receiving unit will be built around him and Julian Edelman, leaving Lucien in a heated battle with Washington, Chris Hogan, Keshawn Martin, Matthew Slater (a lock to stay due to his special team role), Chris Harper, DeAndre Carter, and Aaron Dobson for the remaining four spots. Toss in 2016 fourth round choice, Malcolm Mitchell, and you can see that Lucien has his work cut out for him. Yet, when his name is mentioned during rookie camp, it brings smiles to the coaches’ faces.

The Pats also signed Lucien’s ASU teammate, D.J. Foster, who is getting a look in training camp as a slot receiver/flanker/tailback. Even though he excelled in his receiving role at ASU last year (59 receptions; 280 yards rushing), his best chance of making the team might come as a ball carrier, where he could take the final tailback spot if Dion Lewis has to begin the season on the PUP list.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Impact Rookies: Indianapolis Colts

July 11th, 2016 at 2:20pm CST by Zachary Links

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Now, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with his insight on the Indianapolis Colts’ draft class:

One can argue that head coach Chuck Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson are like oil and vinegar, as they just don’t seem to mix. Now, with both having their jobs on the line, they hope they can find the right ingredients for the team’s salad before both are tossed by ownership. Grigson does not have a great track record to survive another draft disaster, but outside of his first two choices in the 2016 draft, the other six selections will have a fight on their hands to secure roster spots.

Since taking over as general manager in January 2012, Grigson has overseen the draft with less than stellar results. Not counting his cache in 2016, he’s drafted 26 players from the 2012-15 phases. Based on his current roster, seven of those choices have earned starting jobs for the Colts. Four others precariously hang on to reserve roles, while eighteen others are no longer with the team, including a slew of them no longer in the league. Now, Grigson hopes he can stem the tide from those draft day disasters that also include 2013 first round selection Bjoern Werner.

Grigson’s first-ever draft selection was a no-brainer, taking franchise quarterback Andrew Luck with the top pick in 2012. However, Luck has been constantly harassed in the pocket while playing behind what is unanimously considered the worst offensive line in pro football last year. To protect their quarterback, the team pulled out a page from Hall of Fame coach Paul Brown’s mantra for building a team – start with a franchise-type center and build your line around him.

First Round – Ryan Kelly, C (Alabama, No. 18)

Luck looked like the Titanic – a total wreck – just seven games into the 2015 season. That was all the games the franchise QB would appear in, as five others tried their hand at quarterback after Luck was lost for the rest of the season. The former Stanford product produced his worst pro season ever, as he completed just 55.3% of his passes and had almost as many interceptions (12) as touchdown tosses (15).

The offensive line allowed 35 sacks last year. Luck was hit an incredible 121 times after getting rid of the ball and the running corps remained dormant, averaging 3.6 yards per attempt while reaching the end zone just six times. On top of it, those ball carriers coughed up the sphere nineteen times, resulting in eleven recoveries by the opposition.

Something needed to change in the trenches – enter Ryan Kelly, perhaps the “toughest hombre” to play in the pivot since the heydays of the Bears’ Olin Kreutz. With multiple national title rings on his fingers, Kelly brings that instant nastiness to the line that has been missing since Jeff Saturday was snapping the ball to Peyton Manning.

In the Colts’ zone blocking scheme, the center needs to be athletic enough to work down the line, along with having the agility to block in the second level. Against 3-4 defensive alignments, they are also required to have that strong anchor, in order to stall the two-gap charge from the nose guards. In most cases, size does not matter –intelligence, strength and balance are more important. Field smarts are needed to immediately identify the defense’s pressure packages.

Strength is needed, in order to stall the bull rush and help in widening the rush lanes. Quick feet and fluid retreat skills are required, as it is often the center that has to drop back and protect the pocket in passing situations. A long reach, firm anchor and great balance are important for the center, as he is usually asked to work in combination with his guards getting out in front on traps and pulls. These are all the traits that Kelly brings to the table, giving the team an immediate upgrade from former starter, Khaled Holmes.

Kelly might also have some “new friends” on the offensive line, as third round pick, Le’Raven Clark, will serve as an understudy behind Anthony Castonzo at left tackle. Five round choice, Joseph Haeg, shifts to right tackle, where he could mount a challenge for Denzelle Good’s precarious hold on the starting job. Toss in seventh round center/guard Austin Blythe for good measure, as there are no other back-ups to Kelly at center on the roster.

Second Round – T.J. Green, S (Clemson, No. 57 overall)

Outside of Jalen Ramsey, there were no free safeties considered to be first round material this year. In fact, since the 2000 draft, just eight safeties were chosen within the top ten picks of the draft, most recently when Tampa Bay made Mark Barron the seventh pick in 2012. Still, Green offers promise.

Green impressed scouts throughout his final season at Clemson, as the former wide receiver moved to the secondary in 2013. Once given playing time, he produced had 162 tackles, one interception and 24 kickoff returns for 505 yards in 980 snaps over 26 games (16 starts) on defense in his career. Last season, he was the team’s second-leading tackler with 95 hits, including five for losses while coming on the safety blitz.

Do not be fooled by Green’s lack of experience. He has keen football instincts and field awareness, showing good urgency taking proper angles to close and shows a good feel in zone coverage to pick up and anticipate on the switch-off and combo routes. He processes the action in front of him well and gets a quick jump on the ball in run support. He studies the quarterback intently, getting a good jump on the action in front of him. He is very good at making his reads and reacting to the pre-snap movement and he looks instinctive and smart in both zone and man coverage.

Green’s addition will give the team an heir to Mike Adams, but it will likely lead to a few position changes in the backfield. Once the team deems Green capable of starting, current starter, Clayton Geathers, could shift to strong safety, a position that he starred at during his college days. Adams, with his advanced age, will serve as a mentor to the youngsters of the secondary, leaving Winston Guy, Andrew Williamson, Dezmen Southward, and Stefan McClure fighting it out for the fourth and final safety slot on the roster.

Undrafted Rookie Free Agent – Josh Ferguson, RB (Illinois)

Last year, the Colts had one of the least productive running corps in the NFL with sixteen different players carrying the ball. Outside of aging Frank Gore (260 tries for 967 yards), no Colts runner had more than 33 carries. All six of the team’s rushing touchdowns were recorded by Gore, along with five of the seven gains that went for twenty yards or longer.

It was quite a surprise to me when Ferguson was not taken in the draft. Twenty other tailbacks were selected while Ferguson sat waiting for his phone to ring. Once mini-camp opened, Colts coaches realized that they might have a hidden gem in this speedy Illini ball carrier. He will enter training camp sixth on the depth chart at his position, but you can not deny that he joins the team with a very impressive resume.

Ferguson ended the 2015 season as only active FBS player with at least 2,500 yards rushing (2,586) and 1,500 yards receiving (1,507). He finished second on the Illini career all-purpose yards list (4,474), sixth on the rushing list, third in receptions (168), seventh in total touchdowns (26), and the record-holder for most receptions and receiving yards by a running back.

The Colts’ running backs behind Gore include the likes of Robert Turbin, Jordan Todman, and Miami reject Trey Williams, so it’s not hard to envision Ferguson cracking the roster. Ferguson’s receiving skills trump Todman’s and if he can add to his resume as a kickoff returner, he has an excellent opportunity to be the team’s third-down back next season.

Dave-Te Thomas owns and operates The NFL Draft Report, a service which has provided insight to league scouting departments for over 40 years. All year round, can read Thomas’ in-depth reviews of both blue chip prospects and diamonds in the rough by visiting the NFL Draft Report blog.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Impact Rookies: New York Jets

July 11th, 2016 at 11:00am CST by Zachary Links

To help us forecast the immediate future of these NFL neophytes, we enlisted the help of draft guru Dave-Te Thomas who has served as a scouting personnel consultant to NFL teams for multiple decades.

Today, we continue PFR’s Impact Rookie series with his insight on the New York Jets’ draft class:

It has been a strange off-season for the Jets, as they seem to be taking a disregard to their recent past, holding the contract line firmly on 2015 starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and one of the best defensive linemen in the game in Muhammad Wilkerson. They failed to impress with their “temporary” solution to the Fitzpatrick stand-off by using their second-round draft pick to snatch Penn State erratic signal-caller, Christian Hackenberg.

Even if Fitzpatrick had signed, the Jets were going to look at addressing their future at quarterback anyway, as their starter in 2015 has had a journeyman’s like career to date. Still, they fail to impress Jets fans with the addition of Hackenberg, if it means that Fitzpatrick will turn into a training camp stalemate. They can’t be serious about turning the reins over to Geno Smith, could they?

Offensive coordinator Chan Gailey has been talking up Smith, citing his maturity, but his obvious lack of leadership skills (see last season’s locker room debacle) and marginal performances to date makes Jets faithful hope that Gailey can create magic in the huddle this season. One option not talked about often is the development of 2015 third round pick, Bryce Petty. Still, like Hackenberg, he is still unproven at the professional level, leaving the Jets to ponder if they want to risk a season as a playoff observer or come to some kind of solution with the Fitzpatrick situation.

While the Jets did not address their quarterback situation in the way that many fans would have liked, they did pick up some interesting talents at other positions in this year’s draft.

First Round – Darron Lee, LB (Ohio State, No. 20 overall)

It is not etched in stone where Lee will line up for the Jets, but hailed by The NFL Draft Report the “best defensive playmaker in the 2016 draft,” the Jets are certain to find a role quickly for their first round pick. For now, he’s listed behind Erin Henderson at right inside linebacker. Beyond that, veteran and inside starter David Harris might be looking for employment elsewhere in 2017, if Lee progresses as quickly as expected.

Henderson moves into the lineup, at least temporarily, after the Jets let Demario Davis leave in free agency despite finishing second on the team with 90 tackles last year. Still, it will not be long before he cedes playing time to Lee. Another player greatly affected by Lee’s arrival is San Francisco cast-off, Bruce Carter, who was brought in to play the nickel package. With Lee’s cornerback-like speed, Carter will have to sit while Lee performs in that alignment.

Some draft analysts stated that Lee was a “work in progress” and “did not excite” in 2015 like he did in 2014 during the Buckeyes’ national championship march. Unknown to many scouts, at the time, but Lee was playing with a lower leg injury during the first half of his sophomore campaign. With several Buckeyes suspended earlier in the year, the strong-side linebacker felt that even on one leg, he needed to be out on the field.

Lee recovered just in time – for the late season tough part of the schedule. He recorded at least seven tackles with one stop behind the line of scrimmage and one quarterback pressure in each of his final four appearances. While he delivered 66 tackles (36 solos) for his final season at Ohio State, it is how he compiled those statistics that were even more impressive.

On 53 plays he made vs. the running game, Lee limited his opponents to an average gain of a minuscule 0.68 yards per attempt. The longest gain vs. the linebacker was a 9-yard scamper. He delivered eleven crunching third-down stops and another on a fourth-down play vs. those ball carriers, posting fourteen of those tackles inside the red zone, including four on goal-line stands. In addition to taking down thirteen runners for losses, ten more were tackled at the line of scrimmage for no gain. He also made five touchdown-saving tackles after runners broke free from other Ohio State defenders in 2015.

Third Round – Jordan Jenkins, OLB (Georgia, No. 83 overall)

The Jets parted ways with Calvin Pace and in their revised 3-4 alignment, they currently have 2014 seventh round pick Trevor Reilly stationed at left outside linebacker. That is, until Jenkins reports to camp and shows that he is NFL-ready. For Jenkins, this marked the tenth player from his university to be drafted by the New York Jets since they first selected Phil Sullivan in 1972. The last Georgia player drafted by the Jets before Jenkins was Jamie Henderson in the 2001 draft. The Bulldogs have sent 29 linebackers to the NFL, with Jenkins being the fifth taken in the third round. From that group, twenty-two of those draftees went on to suit up in the professional ranks.

Jenkins makes some very big hits on the move and while he might not have the bulk to hold his ground vs. the larger blockers, he is superb in working on stunts and getting through the gaps. His edge rush ability allows him to reduce the pocket and he has shown the acceleration needed to come off the edge and get to the quarterback. He has good burst in his pass rush and can generate consistent pressure on the pocket. In a scheme that will allow him to stunt and play uncontested off the edge, some team could find a difference maker here.

Despite playing part of his senior season nursing a groin injury, Jenkins established himself as a force vs. the run. He moved into fourth place on the school career-record list with forty tackles behind the line of scrimmage, joining fellow Georgia linebackers David Pollack (58.5; 2001-04), Quentin Moses (44.5; 2003-06) and Jarvis Jones (44.0; 2011-12) as the only players in Bulldog annals to register at least forty tackles-for- loss. Ironically, that quartet all performed at the “Jack” position.

In the Georgia scheme, the “Jack” is a hybrid – part defensive end and part rush linebacker. The “Jack” is usually asked to serve as the team’s primary pass rush specialist, but he is also assigned additional duties in passing situations. The reason the staff preferred to use Jenkins at that position was his keen understanding of the defense. At close to 260 pounds, he had enough bulk, combined with functional strength, to play with his hand down at the line of scrimmage.

With his lateral agility and change of direction skills, he easily played a bit off the line to generate an explosive burst coming off the edge, where he recorded nineteen quarterback sacks and a very impressive 82 pressures through 52 contests. Jenkins was often leading the charge in run support, evident by his forty tackles behind the line of scrimmage as a Bulldog. He showed the ability to also handle strong-side and weak-side linebacker duties – either lining up over the tight end to cover in the short area, or taking on the lead blocker or off-centered fullback from the “will” position.

Fifth Round – Brandon Shell, OT (South Carolina, No. 158 overall)

The Jets hope that the 6:05, 324-pound left tackle can quickly transition back to the right side, where he played in 2014, despite performing with a shoulder injury that required surgery, keeping him out of 2015 offseason camps. He comes into the league having started his last 47 appearances, including playing on the left side last year. He posted 92 knockdowns and ten touchdown-resulting blocks, making his great-uncle, Hall of Famer Art Shell, proud of the family bloodlines.

Shell is not ready to challenge for a starting job, but he could be thrown to the wolves, thanks to the Jets’ lack of depth at the tackle positions. Long-time starting left tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson is sitting at home feeding the kids while enjoying retirement. The Jets replaced the veteran with Denver’s Ryan Clady on the left side, but he’s been a medical risk the last several years. Their right tackle, Breno Giacomini, was the biggest liability on the front wall last year, but with salaries of $5.125MM the next two years, the team will take a cap hit if they cut him loose before the season opener. If Clady fails to stay healthy, the Jets will be on the books for a salary guarantee of only $1.5MM.

The Jets had made a valiant effort to trade up when Mississippi’s Laremy Tunsil began his draft-day slide, but could not find a willing trade partner before division rivals, Miami, stepped in to end Tunsil’s most trying day. While right guard Brian Winters has collegiate experience at tackle, he’s also fighting to even remain on the roster this year. The rest of the Jets’ backups are unknown types like Jesse Davis, Ben Ijalana, and Brent Qvale, making Shell’s path to an NFL job all the more easier.

For a player his size, Shell has decent quickness, but he needs to show better agility, balance, flexibility and change of direction skills. He has the frame and hand punch to win stationary battles, making him a better fit working in combination with other blockers on the right side, rather than be placed on an island and be challenged by the speedy edge rushers on the left side. He shows good weight distribution on the move and his trap blocking could see him earn a few reps inside as a guard while developing pro tackle skills.

Shell allowed just 1.5 sacks last year and knows how to use his broad shoulders and body lean to stall the pass rush. He has the arm length to make reach blocks, but he does get a bit lazy when blocking in-line, as his feet fail to show urgency when he has to move laterally. His inability to bend at the knees will always be an issue, if he has to take on speedy edge rushers, but he has that wide base, big body and jolting hand punch to easily beat out the motley crew of back-ups the Jets have assembled for their front wall.

Jalin Marshall, WR/KR (Ohio State, Undrafted Rookie Free Agent)

If the Jets decide to keep five receivers, I’d expect Gang Green to have Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Devin Smith (if healthy) and Quincy Enunwa in the top four spots. That leaves seventh-round pick, Charone Peake, Patriots castoff Kenbrell Thompkins, Jeremy Ross, Robbie Anderson, Kyle Williams, and Chandler Worthy to battle for the final opening. While Marshall is still a neophyte as a receiver, he will greatly impact a return game, as the Jets ranked 15th in the NFL in punt returns (8.6 average) and 26th in kickoff returns (20.8 average) last season.

You see it every year in training camp – teams filled with nondescript youngsters that were bypassed in the draft, trying to catch even the slightest glimpse from a position coach during practices. They often share a locker stall, or try to find a few inches on the floor to store their gear safely, hoping that what they show during the summer weeks would earn them their own locker with a name tag come September. When it comes to filling out a 53-man roster, most teams look for their rookies to have some ability to play in a variety of roles. For a skill position player, you look for someone who can not only perform at his assigned position, but to also be capable of filling a few spots for the special team units. For the “bigger guys,” you want them to be able to fill in at a variety of positions on the offensive or defensive front walls.

The New York Jets could be faced with a pleasant dilemma when they reduce their current 90-player roster down to the 53-man limit for the 2016 season opener. One of those that could force his way into the locker room is a Buckeye with limited experience at receiver, but also one with a “bag of tricks” to be able to fill a variety of roles for the squad. Marshall is a gifted athlete who can make a real impact at the next level, if given the chance.

Dave-Te Thomas owns and operates The NFL Draft Report, a service which has provided insight to league scouting departments for over 40 years. All year round, you can read Thomas’ in-depth reviews of both blue chip prospects and diamonds in the rough by visiting the NFL Draft Report blog.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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