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Author: Rob DiRe

Offseason Outlook: Houston Texans

By | at February 18, 2015 7:49 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. J.J. Watt, DL: $21,969,000
  2. Andre Johnson, WR: $16,144,583
  3. Johnathan Joseph, CB: $12,250,000
  4. Duane Brown, T: $9,500,000
  5. Arian Foster, RB: $8,906,250
  6. Chris Myers, C: $8,000,000
  7. Brian Cushing, LB: $7,891,250
  8. Jadeveon Clowney, OLB: $5,062,045
  9. Garrett Graham, TE: $3,921,875
  10. Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB: $3,875,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 16 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

After inheriting a 2-14 team, Bill O’Brien took over the Texans and brought them right back to respectability in just one season. Most of the attention went to J.J. Watt, and deservedly so, after an astounding season that saw him receive 13 MVP votes, the most for a defensive player since Lawrence Taylor in 1986.

However, Watt didn’t lead the team to nine wins – and one Week 17 Ravens’ loss to the Connor Shaw-led Browns from a playoff spot – all by himself. Defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel patched together a strong defensive season without much notable star-power on that side of the ball. The team finished seventh in scoring defense, according to ESPN, and also graded out as a top-10 defense according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Just a year ago, the unit were 24th in scoring defense and 16th per PFF. The big addition this offseason was first overall pick Jadeveon Clowney, who played in only four games and accumulated five tackles.

The offense is what really held the team back, specifically the quarterback position. The Texans had to turn Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett, Tom Savage, and Case Keenum at different points during the year, which proved inconsistent at best. If the team can get an equal or better effort from the defense in 2015, consistent offense should be enough to put Houston back in the playoffs.Ryan Mallett

Key Free Agents

With the quarterback position in flux, Mallett turns into one of the more intriguing free agents on the market for the Texans. Most teams will view Mallett as an afterthought at worst, and a question mark at best, but the Texans coaching staff has a full season of practice reps to judge him on. An unfortunate injury robbed the team of more game film, but no other suitor will be more familiar with what he has to offer. O’Brien knows him particularly well, going back to his time coaching him in New England. It is difficult to project the Texans’ interest in Mallett, but what they do with him will be telling. If they don’t make a concerted effort to sign him, even to a small backup-level deal, he might have trouble finding work anywhere in the league.

Kendrick Lewis played a huge role in a surprisingly good defense in 2014, playing 1097 snaps, most on the defense. I imagine if the Texans thought they had a better option, they would have used him. While Lewis graded out positively in 2014 (subscription), he was far from a revelation. The market for his services should be diminished enough for the Texans to bring him back at a reasonable rate, but in a weak free agent class for safeties, a 26-year old talent who has proven to be durable could wind up being overpaid. Danieal Manning played about half the snaps that Lewis did, but graded out slightly better over that sample. He could stay or go on a small contract, depending on how the rest of free agency and the draft go.

Staying in the secondary, Kareem Jackson was the team’s best cornerback in 2014, surpassing Johnathan Joseph as the number one guy in the secondary. His breakout season came at the wrong time for the team, as he will be sought after heavily in what could be a weak cornerback class in both the draft and free agency. It would be difficult to justify signing Jackson to a big extension with Joseph still on the books.

Offensive tackle Derek Newton and outside linebacker Brooks Reed are both players with good track records in Houston that the team would like to have back in the fold. Both would draw interest on the open market, but the Texans would likely have an edge in bringing them back.

Akeem Dent, Jerrell Powe, and Ryan Pickett could all be back next season due to scheme familiarity, depending on what the team accomplishes in free agency and the draft.

Possible Cap Casualties

Andre Johnson is the best player in Texans history, and it isn’t even close. Drafted in the first round of Houston’s second draft, he has spent his whole career with the franchise. During that time, he put together a pretty good Hall of Fame case, currently placing himself ninth all time in receptions and 12th in receiving yards.

However, Johnson slipped dramatically in 2014, failing to reach the 1,000-yard mark for the first time since his rookie year, in a season that he was healthy and played at least 14 games. He also posted his fewest receptions in a healthy season since his second year in the league. Johnson has struggled with injuries throughout his career, missing large portions of the 2007 and 2011 seasons, as well as missing three games in 2005. The scariest part of the 2014 campaign is the tremendous dip in his yards per catch over the last two seasons. From 2007 to 2012 he averaged between 13.7 and 15.5 yards per catch, but in the last two years, he has averaged 12.9 (2013) and just 11.0 (2014). That last number tied him for 83rd in the league among qualified players.

A drop in yards per catch often signifies a loss of explosiveness, and could pose trouble for the star receiver going forward. If these two numbers prove to be anomalies, like his low averages in 2005 and 2006, that’s fine, but if they become a trend it will be hard to justify his large cap number. Set to make $21.5MM in base salary over the next two years, with cap numbers totaling over $30MM, Johson is one of the highest paid receivers in the league, according to OverTheCap.com. The team could save nearly $21MM by cutting the veteran wideout, although asking him to take a pay cut could be a more ideal option for the team.

An extension for Johnson could be another option, but the emergence of DeAndre Hopkins as the team’s number one option cuts Johnson’s leverage in contract talks.

Johnathan Joseph hasn’t been with the team nearly as long, but he was a huge part of an excellent Texans’ defense that made back-to-back playoff appearances in the 2011 and 2012 NFL seasons. Joseph signed a five-year contract as the top corner available during the 2011 offseason, and with rookie J.J. Watt, was part of a massive defensive improvement on way to the first playoff appearance and the first playoff victory in Texans’ franchise history. Joseph made the Pro Bowl during each of his first two seasons. The Texans would be in a tough spot if they lost both Jackson and Joseph, but if they can manage to bring back Jackson, they could save $8.5MM by releasing Joseph. Brian Cushing is in a similar situation as Joseph, having dealt with injuries and a decline in performance, but his guaranteed base salary would make it difficult to justify cutting him.

Texans center Chris Myers has been among the better players at his position over the last five years, and the Texans have had effective running games during the best stretch in franchise history largely because of the efforts of Myers and offensive tackle Duane Brown. Myers, like Joseph, made the Pro Bowl in 2011 and 2012. However, if the team feels comfortable it can withstand the drop in production that could come with going to a younger player, the $6MM the team would save could go a long way towards re-signing other players this offseason.

Two more interesting possibilities are Arian Foster and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Foster continues to be highly productive and effective as both a runner and receiver, but with the devaluation of running backs, a back with such a high cap number and Foster’s injury history should be on alert. Cap savings this year would be less than $4MM, unless he is designated a post-June 1st cut, but more likely it will be interesting to see what the Texans do with him next offseason as he enters the final year of his contract. For Fitzpatrick, it depends on what the Texans do at the quarterback position with the rest of the offseason. Right now, he might still be the best option for the team. However, his $3.25MM salary would make him a very highly-paid backup. If the team can find another option in the draft or free agency, it might make sense to spend that money elsewhere on the roster.

Positions Of Need

As is the case for all teams with question marks at the quarterback position, that QB spot immediately becomes the most pressing need on the team. Using four quarterbacks in a season is never a good thing, especially when the best option of the four is Fitzpatrick — even Fitzpatrick’s 17:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio was buoyed by a six-touchdown, zero-interception game against a Titans team that will be drafting second overall this season. Houston’s current options aren’t great. After Fitzpatrick, the only in-house options are the unproven Mallett and the unrefined Savage. Neither player would inspire confidence.

Of course, the options in free agency aren’t much better. Brian Hoyer and Mark Sanchez are probably the top options on the market, and if that’s the case, the team’s best option may just be to roll with Fitzpatrick again. Texans’ fans may have thought the team had a chance at Teddy Bridgewater with the top pick in the second round last spring, but the Vikings wisely traded back into the end of the first round to select him. Picking 16th this year, the Texans only options at quarterback figure to be Brett Hundley of UCLA and Bryce Petty, unless Marcus Mariota continues to tumble down big boards across the NFL. Hundley and Petty are both flawed prospects and neither represents an immediate improvement at the position. Both might go on to have full and impressive NFL careers, but if the team plans to compete in 2015 it needs a more polished and more dynamic player leading the offense.

Depending on whether or not the team is able to keep Johnson, receiver will be another position of need this offseason. Even if the team moves on from Johnson, the Texans will have trouble targeting a receiver off the top of the market such as Randall Cobb or Jeremy Maclin, but a player like Eddie Royal, Cecil Shorts, or Leonard Hankerson could be brought in on a modest contract as a second or third wide receiver. Tight end might be an even more pressing need, especially if the team decides that Garrett Graham isn’t the long-term answer at the position. The Texans would have trouble going after a very top-of-the-market veteran, but if they could make a move for a player like Jermaine Gresham or Jordan Cameron, that would constitute a huge upgrade.

The Texans got adequate performances from their interior linemen on both sides of the ball, but could stand to improve if a reasonable option presents itself. That also depends on what they decide to do with some of their current veterans, who may represent good enough options to remain with the team. The team faces the same dilemma at inside linebacker and cornerback, where the status quo might be just enough if they decide to bring those units back.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The top extension candidate for the Texans must be right guard Brandon Brooks. Brooks graded out as the eighth-best guard according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), and at a minimal salary the team would want to lock him up long term. Brooks has proven himself over two years, and with only a year left on his rookie deal, this offseason would be the best time for the Texans to extend him with leverage.

The more exciting names are the ones who already showed up in the cap casualties section. Both Johnson and Joseph could be seen as extension candidates due to their high cap numbers. Ideally, the Texans would want both to take a pay cut to stay with the team, but there could be some compromise to lower their current cap number and keep them with the team for a few more years. This applies especially to Johnson, where there would be some added value in having him retire in a Texans uniform.

The Texans also have a decision to make on the future of former first-round pick Whitney Mercilus, and with Reed and Clowney in the fold, Mercilus seems expendable. If they do want to keep him long-term, they could hang it over his head as leverage to signing an extension. If they keep Reed, they could get by even if Clowney misses additional time after an injury plagued rookie season. On the other hand, if Reed leaves in free agency, the leverage returns to Mercilus as the only experienced outside linebacker on the team.

Overall Outlook

Had the Ravens lost to the Browns in Week 17, we might be looking much differently at this Texans’ team and the job O’Brien did with it. Houston would have made it into the playoffs, and would have had a decent shot at beating a Steelers’ squad that was missing All-Pro running back Le’Veon Bell. We would have gotten to see another game or two from Watt, and perhaps a Texans playoff berth would have earned the star defender enough votes to challenge Aaron Rodgers for the MVP.

Jumping from a two-win 2013 to a nine-win 2014 would seem to make the Texans a prime candidate for regression in 2015. The best way to fight regression is always by building on a roster and by getting consistent quarterback play. The Texans can look at the division-rival Colts for proof of that — for those who dismiss that comparison because they think Andrew Luck is a superhuman, the Chiefs are a more reasonable representation. That team was able to withstand losing players such as Brandon Flowers and Eric Berry, and was able to continue winning despite serious roster flaws and obvious red flags for regression. A lot of the credit for that goes to a sound coaching job by Andy Reid, and consistent and efficient quarterback play from Alex Smith. Far from spectacular, he was good enough to keep the team in every game, and allowed a strong running game and dominant defense to shine.

If the Texans are able to bring back the best parts of their team and make a few nominal improvements, all they will need is consistent quarterback play to stay in the playoff hunt in 2015. The only question is whether or not they can find that consistency from one of the quarterbacks on the roster, in the draft, or in free agency.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

0 comments Houston Texans Offseason Outlook PFR Originals

Extra Points: Giants, Revis, Bears, Browns

By | at February 15, 2015 10:58 pm

As this Sunday comes to an end, here is a roundup of some stories from around the NFL:

  • As the window to use the franchise tag opens up, the Giants will have to make a decision on whether to place that on defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, writes Paul Schwartz of the New York Post. The tag number is estimated to be $14.6MM, a large number for a player who has been inconsistent over his career.
  • The Patriots and star cornerback Darrelle Revis are in a “staring contest” over a long-term contract, according to Tom Curran of CSNNE.com. The Patriots need to work out a contract as soon as possible to open up cap space to re-sign their other free agents.
  • Most teams have a number one position of need as the NFL draft approaches, but the Bears and general manager Ryan Pace have a different goal: to improve the draft class in general, writes John Mullin of CSNChicago.com. The team has drafted poorly in recent years, and the top priority for the new administration is to reverse that trend.
  • The Browns were very high on Marcus Mariota, and the team could consider moving up in the draft to take the Heisman-winning quarterback, writes Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com. With the 12th and 19th picks in this draft, they could have the ammunition to move up and draft their third quarterback in the first round since 2012.
  • The NFL combine will give the Titans a chance to interview both Jameis Winston and Mariota and begin to decide their future at quarterback, writes Jim Wyatt of the Tennesseean. With the second overall pick, they could have a chance at either player, or they could elect to take one of the top pass rushers and move forward with Zach Mettenberger under center.
  • Rookie Vikings running back Jerick McKinnon played well before being shut down due to injury last season, but is recovering well and should be back in time for offseason workouts, writes Matt Vensel of StarTribune.com.
  • Michigan attorney Jim Acho has received two written endorsements from player reps nominating him to become the next NFLPA executive director, writes Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press. Acho only needs one more in order to officially be included on the ballot.
0 comments Chicago Bears Cleveland Browns Minnesota Vikings New England Patriots New York Giants Tennessee Titans

West Notes: Manning, Knighton, Tomsula

By | at February 15, 2015 10:16 pm

Peyton Manning faded down the stretch in 2014, and many may have forgotten that he threw for over 4.700 yards and 39 touchdowns, leading a 12-4 Broncos team to a first round bye. Granted, I won’t argue that he was spectacular at season’s end, but he certainly represents the team’s best chance of success in 2015. Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post writes that while Manning needs to come back, he also needs to take a pay cut. Even carving $5MM off of his cap number would give the team the flexibility to invest in the offensive line, which could be worth more to Manning than the money at this point.

Here are some other notes from our two West divisions:

  • Demaryius Thomas would like to come to an agreement with the Broncos on a long-term contract, but it is more likely that he has the franchise tag placed on him, writes Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com.
  • The Raiders are bereft of talent, but new coach Jack Del Rio could look to bring an important piece to the middle of the defense, as the team is expected to pursue defensive tackle Terrance Knighton, according to CSNBayArea.com. Del Rio drafted Knighton when he was with the Jaguars, and the pair traveled to Denver together when Del Rio received the defensive coordinator job with the Broncos.
  • The 49ers were reportedly close to hiring former Broncos offensive coordinator and current Bears offensive coordinator Adam Gase. However, Gase turned down the job after he was told he would have to promote defensive line coach Jim Tomsula to defensive coordinator, according to Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News. Gase turned down the offer, and Tomsula was hired shortly after.
  • 49ers running back Frank Gore is looking for a commitment from the team as free agency looms, writes Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee. Barrows writes that while Gore is committed to returning, he is unsure of his future with the team with Carlos Hyde emerging as a playmaking running back.
  • Inglewood mayor James T. Butts is confident that football will return to Los Angeles, writes Josh Peter of USA Today. “Let me put it to you this way, buddy: It’s going down,” says Butts. “This is a happening thing. As far as everybody being all in, everybody’s all in.”
0 comments City Of Los Angeles Denver Broncos Las Vegas Raiders San Francisco 49ers

NFC Links: Saints, Falcons, Eagles, Lions, Bears

By | at February 15, 2015 7:24 pm

Whether you are watching the NBA All-Star Game, SNL 40, or something else, here is a roundup of some NFC links you might have missed today:

0 comments Atlanta Falcons Chicago Bears Detroit Lions New Orleans Saints Philadelphia Eagles

NFL Notes: NFLPA, Cap Casualties, Team Needs

By | at February 15, 2015 5:56 pm

Labor and employment law attorney Andrew Smith has joined the race to become the next Executive Director of the NFLPA, and is officially on the ballot as he has acquired written endorsements from three player reps, reports Rand Getlin of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). As far as Getlin knows, Smith is the first of the candidates to get all three endorsements required (via Twitter).

Here are some other links from around the NFL:

  • Agent Rob London will also be joining the field, making him the fifth person to put his name in the hat to run against current Executive Director DeMaurice Smith, writes Jason Cole of Bleacher Report (via Twitter).
  • Josh McCown and LaRon Landry are among players who have already been released this offseason, but Ben Volin of the Boston Globe notes that there are a number of other veterans that could be on the chopping block before the new league year starts. Volin’s list includes Percy Harvin, Brandon Marshall, Troy Polamalu, and Marques Colston, among others.
  • While Volin is busy talking about players who could be released, Jason La Canfora is figuring out what players team’s need to bring in, as he outlines all 32 franchises’ needs this offseason for CBS Sports. La Canfora picks out the top priority for every team.
  • Jameis Winston’s trangessions during his time at Florida State could play a big role in his NFL career, as the league’s new player conduct policy would allow for a player’s past incidents to play a role in punishment when dealing with new offenses at the professional level, writes Jane McManus of ESPN.com. Not to assume Winston will be in trouble once he gets drafted, but it could affect his draft status if a team knows he will not get a clean slate after coming into the NFL.
0 comments NFL Players Association

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Eagles

By | at February 14, 2015 9:31 pm

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. LeSean McCoy, RB: $11,950,000
  2. Trent Cole, OLB: $11,625,000
  3. Jason Peters, T: $9,050,000
  4. Cary Williams, CB: $8,166,668
  5. Connor Barwin, OLB: $7,000,000
  6. DeMeco Ryans, LB: $6,900,000
  7. Evan Mathis, G: $6,500,000
  8. Malcolm Jenkins, S: $5,666,666
  9. Lane Johnson, T: $5,414,483
  10. Todd Herremans, OL: $5,200,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • Chip Kelly awarded final say over all draft, roster decisions.

Draft:

  • No. 20 overall pick
  • Acquired a fourth-round pick from the 49ers (via the Bills) for Bryce Brown.

Other:

Overview

The Eagles are coming off a painful end to the season in which they finished 1-3 in their final four games, ending up with a 10-6 record and narrowly missing the playoffs after having control of the NFC East for most of the year. Those four losses all came with Mark Sanchez at the helm, after the team lost Nick Foles to a broken clavicle in early November, an injury that prematurely ended the starting quarterback’s season. While Sanchez had his moments and performed better than many backups would have fared, he was unable to keep the lead he was handed in the divisional race.

Jeremy MaclinChip Kelly‘s vaunted offensive attack was unable to hit the same marks it did in his first season as the head coach, when Foles became a dark horse MVP candidate behind his 27 touchdown to only two interceptions. The Eagles were able to move the ball behind a dangerous ground attack with LeSean McCoy and a superb offensive line.

This past season, however, the offensive line dealt with injuries and suspensions, and was never able to line up its best five guys and really get a flow running the football. McCoy still ran his way into the Pro Bowl, but Eagles fans saw it as a slow burn instead of the highlight reel on loop that it had been in 2013.

One of last year’s best trades brought in Darren Sproles, who did provide some spark to both the offense and the special teams units. The Eagles’ struggles on offense were mitigated by touchdowns by the defense and special teams, but all those wins without a playoff appearance could keep the team from drafting the one player it might need the most in order to take the next step into a Super Bowl contender.

Transfer of Power

Since the regular season ended, the biggest story surrounding the Eagles has been the club’s front office shakeup. Kelly has been given a more authoritative role over the roster, while former general manager Howie Roseman has reportedly maintained control over contract negotiations and cap management. So far, this new setup has created more confusion than anything.

The new power structure will ensure that Kelly will be able to have more of an imprint on the on-the-field product. Without anyone to answer to, he will be able to pursue players to fit his system through the draft and free agency, with less push-back or resistance from his front office.

Kelly has already made a habit of adding former Oregon Ducks to his Eagles’ roster, but with full control it would be difficult to imagine someone with vision for the team such as Kelly’s not immediately pushing this roster forward, especially on offense, in order to run the offense exactly the way he wants.

Quarterback Situation

The first thing the Eagles need to address is their quarterback position. Nick Foles was sensational in 2013, but the combination of him and Sanchez this past year was adequate at best. Kelly is not running a defense-first team that can survive inconsistent quarterback play, so that will have to improve going forward.

Sanchez faded down the stretch, likely putting him out of the running for the job. The seemingly obvious solution would be to move forward with Foles, and chalk up a failed 2014 campaign to his injury. That would be a dangerous presumption. Foles turned the ball over 13 times in eight games, and struggled moving the football down the field. He also graded out extremely poorly according to Pro Football Focus, coming up behind the likes of Charlie Whitehurst, Zach Mettenberger, Mike Glennon, and Kirk Cousins (subscription required).

Of course, the top free agent passer is generally considered to be either Sanchez or Brian Hoyer. Sanchez performed worse than Foles, and doesn’t have a recent Pro Bowl season to his name, and Hoyer graded out considerably worse than Foles — the Browns signal-caller was among the worst in the league, according to Pro Football Focus.

The wild card here is the NFL Draft, where Jameis Winston is ascending as the likely number one overall pick. The quarterback he passed to get there is former Oregon Duck Marcus Mariota, who is watching his stock slip a little as the weeks go by.

The Jets are currently slated to take Mariota with the sixth pick, according to ESPN Draft Expert Todd McShay (Insider-only article). The Eagles select at No. 20, but Kelly may be hoping to have a shot to draft his former star. Moving up from 20th to first or second is probably out of the question, and even moving up to sixth is unlikely. However, if Kelly is sold on Mariota, there must be a place where he feels comfortable moving up to get the Heisman winner should he continue to fall.

Last year, Teddy Bridgewater went from possible top-three pick to the end of the first round where the Vikings traded up to select him. I don’t imagine that happening again, even if Mariota continues to fall out of favor with NFL evaluators. Even falling to No. 20 is very unlikely, as the fit with the Eagles is too obvious and any other team interested would be smart enough to try to work a deal to move up ahead of the Eagles to select him.

Kelly might not think Mariota is the perfect fit for the NFL version of his up-tempo attack, but Foles, Sanchez, and Hoyer are probably more likely to disappoint than they are to put up the points that Kelly is looking for from his offense.

Positions Of Need

Other than quarterback, which is always the number one position of need for teams that don’t feel they have the right guy, the Eagles’ biggest need is at cornerback, where the team is in desperate need of an upgrade. During their 1-3 finish, the Eagles repeatedly got burned in one-on-one coverage on the outside – giving up notably large performances to Dez Bryant, Doug Baldwin, DeSean Jackson, and Odell Beckham Jr. – and the club’s corners struggled in many other games this season.

If the team is insistent on running an aggressive defense, it will require better players on the outside. Darrelle Revis seems like a lock to return to the Patriots, and Byron Maxwell might not represent the type of athlete the Eagles need for their style of defense. Brandon Flowers also struggled in the Chiefs’ man-to-man heavy defense before being cut and restoring his value in San Diego.

Among corners that are better fits, Kareem Jackson could potentially handle the scheme, although he has been inconsistent in Houston. Antonio Cromartie is also a modicum of inconsistency, but he has a lot of experience being on an island and has had more good days than bad recently.

One interesting option is Packers free agent Tramon Williams, who was last seen getting burned for a game-winning, one-on-one touchdown to Jermaine Kearse. Williams will likely not be re-signed by the Packers as a 32-year-old corner. He still has some cover skills, and on a short-term deal, could be effective. Chris Culliver and Davon House could be additional options for Philadelphia, though neither would be considered a surefire fix at the position.

The team could also use an upgrade at safety, although veteran options are far and few between there as well. If Antrel Rolle or Troy Polamalu hits free agency, both could be stop-gap solutions for the Eagles in 2015. The team will also have an opportunity to look at defensive backs with their first-round pick, with a number of corners and/or safeties likely to be available. Landon Collins of Alabama could be one star player that may fall to the Eagles at that No. 20 spot.

Key Free Agents

The Eagles’ most important free agent is Jeremy Maclin, who bet on himself with a one-year contract last season. That bet paid off to the tune of 85 catches, 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns. Maclin is now in line for a very big long-term contract with plenty of guaranteed money. Our own Luke Adams noted that it wouldn’t make sense for Maclin to sign his extension just yet — with franchise tags ready to be passed out, Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant could be off the market by the time free agency opens. That would make Maclin’s best competition Randall Cobb, and could leave him as the most sought-after free agent at his position.

The only other major free agent worth keeping is edge rusher Brandon Graham. Graham never quite fit into the Eagles’ plans under Kelly’s regime. Graham would be a cleaner fit for a 4-3 defense where he could line up with one hand in the dirt. Despite high production, he has appeared in less than 1,300 snaps over the past three seasons. In 435 snaps in 2012, he ranked as the second-best defensive end in the league according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). He graded positively again in 331 snaps in 2013 while transitioning to a 3-4 outside linebacker, and his 524 snaps in 2014 he rated out as the third-best player at his position. Graham will likely look for a big pay raise with more opportunity, and the Eagles might think it is better to let him go and groom underwhelming 2014 first-round pick Marcus Smith for a larger role on the defense.

The team will likely allow Nate Allen, Bradley Fletcher, Sanchez, and Brad Smith leave in free agency, or bring them back on short-term deals with little guaranteed money.

Possible Cap Casualties

Cary Williams‘ middling performance and the struggles in the secondary as a whole would be enough to consider moving on from the Super-Bowl-winning cornerback, and a cap hit of more than $8.16MM for 2015 will only make that decision easier. Cutting Williams would save $6.5MM on the cap, according to OverTheCap.com.

A tougher decision for the Eagles will be Trent Cole, who has been a stalwart of the team’s defense for years, and remains productive. A pass-rushing expert, Cole has been a premier – if underrated – contributor for his entire career as an Eagle. His 85.5 career sacks puts him just outside the top 10 for active players, and place him second in franchise history. However, releasing Cole this offseason would result in cap savings of $8.425MM in 2015, followed by savings of $11MM and $14MM the next two years. If the team still wants to keep him, a restructure might be a possibility for Cole, who has expressed interest in playing his entire career with the team.

DeMeco Ryans tore his Achilles tendon and missed most of the 2014 campaign, leaving Kelly to call him the “Mufasa” of the team’s defense. Whether or not that reference was used properly, there is no doubt that Ryans was a leader on the team and that his absence would be felt. The team will likely want him back in 2015, but a $6.9MM cap hit may be too high for an inside linebacker coming off a serious injury.

Finally, LeSean McCoy is the rare running back who holds the highest cap number on his team’s books. Not many would argue that he’s not deserving of being one of the highest-paid players at his position, but even still, a cap hit approaching $12MM leaves restructuring a possibility.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The Eagles will likely point to Fletcher Cox as a top priority this offseason. He graded out as a top five 3-4 defensive end in 2014 according to Pro Football Focus, alongside such names as J.J. Watt, Muhammad Wilkerson, Calais Campbell, and Sheldon Richardson. The team will almost certainly exercise its fifth-year option on Cox, but a long-term extension would be ideal.

Foles believes he should return as the starter in 2015, and if the Eagles agree, then an extension seems like a possibility. However, it’s not clear if the team is sold on the idea of Foles as its quarterback of the future. If he becomes available via trade, there will likely be potential suitors who believe in his abilities. The Eagles may covet a passer like Mariota, or another player more dynamic than Foles.

Overall Outlook

The Eagles are coming off a 10-win season that saw them narrowly miss the playoffs, and 2015 will likely represent a crossroads for Kelly’s regime. The club was able to stay afloat with the duo of Foles and Sanchez, but that shouldn’t mask the fact that the quarterback situation needs to be addressed. Of course, with the 20th pick in the draft and a lack of options in free agency, it will be extremely difficult to upgrade that spot. The dream would be Mariota falling, but that might just be a storyline that brings the city of Philadelphia false hope. A secondary option such as Brett Hundley far from guarantees an upgrade over Foles, now or in the future.

A more realistic spot to make significant upgrades is in the secondary, which held the entire defense back in 2014. Unfortunately for Eagles’ fans, the market for corners and safeties isn’t great this year after or Revis and Devin McCourty, who may not even become available. Players like Cromartie and Tramon Williams, or Byron Maxwell, Chris Culliver, and Davon House could be improvements, but adding one or two of those guys probably wouldn’t make the Eagles’ defense one of the top units in the league.

Coach Kelly will try his best to keep his team at double-digit wins and in the playoff hunt for a third straight year, but if he cannot return Foles to his 2013 form or find a better option, Kelly will have a hard time sustaining his early success over the long term.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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AFC Links: Johnson, Forsett, Spiller, Richardson

By | at February 14, 2015 4:44 pm

The Jets declined the option on Chris Johnson earlier today, making him a free agent this offseason. Johnson played only one year in New York, and his release will save the team $3.5MM on the 2015 cap. Johnson figures to be available for even less than the two-year, $8MM contract he signed last offseason, but should be able to find work somewhere.

Here are some links surrounding AFC running backs this offseason:

  • Johnson was reportedly reluctant to consider the Ravens last offseason despite some interest from the organization, due to the presence of Ray Rice on the roster, according to Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun (via Twitter). With his value another year diminished and no starting running back on the roster, he might reconsider Baltimore this time around. Of course, the team will likely try to keep revelation Justin Forsett (via Twitter). While the offense will likely change without Gary Kubiak at the helm, new offensive coordinator Marc Trestman is expected to keep the zone blocking scheme in place (via Twitter).
  • With Johnson out of the picture, the Jets could target Bills’ former first-round draft pick C.J. Spiller, writes Rich Cimini of ESPNNewYork.com. Chan Gailey was the head coach in Buffalo when Spiller was drafted, and Spiller experienced some of his best success in limited snaps early on there. He could be a great complement to Chris Ivory.
  • Trent Richardson had a tumultuous end to the 2014 season to say the least, and Matt Bowen of Bleacher Report wonders if he can be fixed. Bowen notes that scouts still swear by Richardson’s college tape. Bowen quotes two scouts as saying he was the best running back they ever graded at the college level. Still, he believes the former third overall pick needs to set new goals for himself in order for him to stay in the league long enough to change his image.
1 comment Baltimore Ravens Buffalo Bills Indianapolis Colts New York Jets

NFC East Links: Romo, Peterson, Gregory

By | at February 14, 2015 3:12 pm

It will be a big offseason for some NFC East teams, as the division has seen a lot of turnover the past few years. With all four teams competitive, it wouldn’t be totally surprising to see the Cowboys going from first to worst or Washington to achieve the reverse. While both teams are setting themselves up for successful 2015 seasons, here are some links from around the NFC East:

  • Cowboys‘ starting quarterback Tony Romo turns 35 this April, and there may be some concerns about the signal-caller’s age, writes Jean-Jacques Taylor of ESPN.com. Taylor notes that since Jim Plunkett won Super Bowl XVIII, only two quarterbacks have led their team’s to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at age 35 or older. John Elway did it twice during the twilight of his career, and Tom Brady just a few weeks ago. Brady’s remarkable performance gives Taylor hope for Romo, showing that in the right offense and with the right coach, quarterbacks can continue to achieve into their late thirties. Romo has the benefit of a great offensive line and a consistent running game, and after being asked to throw the ball fewer than 30 times per game for the first time in his NFL career, the Cowboys might have the recipe for success with the old passer at the helm.
  • Dallas has big decisions to make regarding Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray, and those two have both been story lines followed closely at PFR. ESPN’s NFL Front Office takes a look at the conversations that could be going on in the Cowboys‘ headquarters. They note that giving Bryant a long-term extension is a general manager’s nightmare but a coach’s dream. The group also writes that re-signing Murray would be nice, but Adrian Peterson would be the home run choice.
  • ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. put together his second mock draft of the offseason this week, projecting Nebraska pass rusher Randy Gregory to be selected by Washington fifth overall. With Mariota currently falling to sixth, the best case scenario could be another quarterback-needy team moving heaven and earth to jump ahead of the Jets to select him, giving Washington leverage to make a big trade to move down in the draft, writes John Keim of ESPN.com. Keim also notes that while the team has needs at safety, corner, and along the offensive line, none currently look to be worthy of a top-five pick. If Washington targets wide receiver Amari Cooper, the team would have to hope he falls past Oakland at fourth overall.
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Jets Decline Option On Chris Johnson

By | at February 14, 2015 1:33 pm

The Jets have declined to pick up Chris Johnson‘s option for 2015, according to Randy Large of NewYorkJets.com. Johnson would have been owed a $500K roster bonus had the team decided to pick up his option, write Rich Cimini of ESPNNewYork.com (via Twitter). The running back will now become an unrestricted free agent on March 10, according to the team (via Twitter).

The team has also exercised the options on pass rushing linebackers Calvin Pace and Jason Babin. Each of those options come with a roster bonus of $250K, according to Cimini (via Twitter).

The decision to release Johnson will give the Jets an extra $3.5MM in cap space this offseason, writes Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News (via Twitter). He notes that the team was already planning on having between $45MM-$50MM in cap space to work with.

Although the team has exercised the options on both Babin and Pace, that does not guarantee either a spot on the roster in 2015, writes Cimini (via Twitter). Both linebackers are 34, and pass rusher will likely be considered a position of need for the Jets.

0 comments New York Jets Newsstand Transactions

Bills Sign Richie Incognito

By | at February 10, 2015 11:08 am

TUESDAY, 11:08am: As Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com tweets, Incognito will have a base salary of $900K, a signing bonus of $100K, and a workout bonus of $100K. The veteran guard can also earn up to $350K in per-game roster bonuses, and $800K in playing-time incentives. So it looks like the deal can only be worth $2.25MM if it maxes out, with a more modest base value.

Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk notes that the playing-time incentives begin if Incognito plays at least 60% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps, and max out if he plays more than 75%.

MONDAY, 11:03am: The Bills have officially signed Incognito, the team announced today. The press release confirming the move includes a statement from co-owner Terry Pegula, which reads as follows:

“I personally met with Richie, along with Doug Whaley, Rex Ryan and Kim [Pegula] regarding an opportunity to earn a spot on the Buffalo Bills roster. Obviously, we all discussed Richie’s past experience in the NCAA and NFL. We are convinced that Richie is prepared to move forward and has and will continue to take the necessary steps to improve himself as a person and a teammate. Following discussion with the rest of the coaching staff, we as an organization will provide him with the opportunity to do so.”

SATURDAY, 8:02pm: Incognito’s one-year deal is worth $2.25MM, tweets ESPN’s Mike Rodak.

5:14pm: The Bills have officially reached an agreement with Incognito, according to a team press release. It’s a one-year deal, tweets ESPN’s James Walker. Financial terms have not yet been disclosed.

2:27pm: We heard last night that Richie Incognito was visiting the Bills, and now the team has signed the controversial free agent guard, according to Jeff Darlington of the NFL Network (via Twitter).

Before the season, Dallas Robinson assessed Incognito’s stock, noting that in the absence of guaranteed money or a large financial commitment, the Pro Bowl guard’s talent should be enough to warrant at least one team taking a chance on him.

Incognito was able to work out for teams, but was unable to sign on for the 2014 NFL season despite being cleared to play. He will get another chance with Rex Ryan and the Bills, as well as a chance to face his former team – the Dolphins – twice in 2015.

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