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Offseason In Review: Jacksonville Jaguars

By Dallas Robinson | at August 21, 2017 8:24 pm

Although the 2016 Jaguars may not have been as poor as their 3-13 record indicated (Football Outsiders pegged Jacksonville’s expected wins at 5.4 while Pro Football Reference had them at 5.9), the club still posted at least 11 losses for the sixth consecutive season. Having fired their head coach in-season, the Jaguars seemed likely to add free agent talent to their roster, and with nearly $70MM in available cap space, they had the funds to do so.

Notable signings:

Calais Campbell, DL: Four years, $60MM. $30MM guaranteed.
A.J. Bouye, CB: Five years, $67.5MM. $26MM guaranteed.
Barry Church, S: Four years, $26MM. $12MM guaranteed.
Abry Jones, DT: Four years, $15.5MM. $3.5MM guaranteed.
Earl Watford, OL: Two years, $5MM. $1MM guaranteed.
Mychal Rivera, TE: Two years, $3.25MM. $750K guaranteed.
Lerentee McCray, LB: One year, $2MM. $750K guaranteed.
Stefan Charles, DT: Two years, $4MM. $400K guaranteed.
Audie Cole, LB: Two years, $2.6MM. $100K guaranteed.
Patrick Omameh, G: One year, $875K. $100K guaranteed.
Brian Dixon, CB: One year, $690K.
Andrew Gachkar, LB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Jonathan Grimes, RB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
DuJuan Harris, RB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Jeron Johnson, S: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Malliciah Goodman, DE: Contract terms unknown.

The Jaguars have completely revamped their starting defensive backfield over the past two years, first adding Jalen Ramsey and Tashaun Gipson through the draft and free agency, respectively, in 2016 before signing A.J. Bouye and Barry Church this spring. Bouye, particularly, was one of the more interesting free agent cases in recent memory, as he’d only played on 819 defensive snaps over his first three NFL seasons before seeing action on 722 plays last year. He was excellent, as well, grading as the league’s No. 2 cornerback, per Pro Football Focus, and ranked as PFR’s No. 1 free agent when the market opened.

Due to his productivity and his age (he just turned 26 last week), Bouye generated a great deal of interest, as the Colts, Titans, Bears, Buccaneers, Jets, Eagles, and Texans all inquired on the free agent corner. Jacksonville, though, has never been afraid to open up its checkbook for top-of-the-market deals, and made Bouye the eighth-highest-paid cornerback in terms of annual salary — he ranks fourth in guarantees at $26MM. Now paired with Ramsey, who lived up to his fourth overall draft status during his rookie campaign, Bouye gives the Jaguars one of the league’s best secondaries.

Church will join Ramsey and Bouye in the back-end of Jacksonville’s defense, and while he’s not an elite athlete on the level of the Jaguars’ starting corners, Church is a sound, reliable safety who should provide capable play for the duration of his four-year contract. Since becoming a starter in 2013, the 29-year-old Church has started 59 of a possible 64 games, and while he missed four contests in 2016, that was due to a freak injury (broken arm) and not a nagging ailment. Jacksonville not only now boasts an an outstanding defensive backfield, but faces the third-easiest schedule of opposing offenses, according to Warren Sharp‘s 2017 NFL Preview.

The Jaguars didn’t stop adding to their defense after upgrading the secondary, as the club also targeted reinforcements along the front four. Calais Campbell was the best interior defensive lineman available during the free agent period, and Jacksonville convinced him to move to northern Florida instead of Denver (Campbell reportedly narrowed his choice to the Jaguars and Broncos). While Campbell is an extremely talented player against both the run and pass, it’s fair to question the wisdom of signing a near-31-year-old to a four-year pact that contains $30MM in guaranteed money. The deal contains a signing bonus of just $6MM, so Jacksonville can exit the contract after two years, but it’s certainly a risky proposition. In 2017, expect Campbell to play end on early downs before sliding inside on passing plays.

Campbell is a new addition to the Jaguars’ defensive line, while Abry Jones will be returning to Jacksonville for a fifth consecutive season. Jones, who at age-25 is five years younger than Campbell, re-signed with the Jags in February, well before free agency actually opened. I can’t help but wonder if he could’ve landed a larger contract by waiting and meeting with other teams, and Jacksonville may have orchestrated a steal. Jones is an exceptional run defender and played on nearly half the Jaguars’ defensive snaps a year ago, but his contract is essentially equal to that of the Jets’ Steve McLendon, who is a vastly inferior player.

While the Jaguars didn’t spend extravagantly on the offensive side of the ball, a couple of veterans could end up playing relatively impactful roles. Tight end Mychal Rivera once posted 58 receptions for the Raiders, but consistently saw his role dwindle over the past two years. While Jacksonville ran of ton of three wide receiver formations last season (75% of plays, 15% above league average), that percentage could fall in the early weeks of the season as Marqise Lee recovers from a high ankle sprain. Without an established No. 3 wideout, it’s possible the Jaguars could use more two tight end sets, potentially giving Rivera an opportunity to make an impression.

Patrick Omameh may also see his responsibilities enhanced, as Branden Albert‘s release means rookie Cam Robinson will now start at left tackle, leaving a vacancy at left guard that Omameh figures to fill. Omameh, who received a guarantee of just $100K, will be the weak link on Jacksonville’s offense line, but he’s not a disaster, as PFF ranked him as the No. 31 guard in the NFL last season. However, PFF gave Omameh poor run-blocking marks, and given the Jaguars’ intention to lean on the running game in 2017, the club may need to search for other options on the left side. Austin Pasztor, who just signed with the Falcons last week, would have been an intriguing signing.

Notable losses:

Looking at list of notable Jacksonville losses, it’s apparent the Jaguars were intent on overhauling three key areas of their roster: the offensive line, the defensive line, and the secondary. Along the front five, Jacksonville struck quickly to acquire offensive tackle Branden Albert from the Dolphins, sending a late-round 2018 pick to Miami in exchange for the veteran blindside protector. While the Jaguars thought they had stabilized the left side of their offensive line, Albert’s addition was anything but solidifying.

Albert held out for a new deal in April, but eventually reported to camp after the Jaguars indicated they wouldn’t rework his deal. At the end of July, Albert abruptly announced his retirement, leaving Jacksonville in a precarious position. Just a week later, Albert un-retired and attempted to again report to Jacksonville, but general manager David Caldwell & Co. weren’t having it. Having grown tired of Albert’s act, the Jaguars first placed Albert on the reserve/retired list, and then simply released him. While there’s an argument to be made that Jacksonville should have held onto Albert’s contractual rights, the club was likely ready to part ways with Albert given his offseason antics.

Albert won’t be part of the Jaguars’ offensive line in 2017, and neither will Kelvin Beachum nor Luke Joeckel, each of whom were allowed to depart via free agency. Jacksonville took a risk on Beachum last season, offering him a unique option-based contract as he recovered from a torn ACL. Although he stayed healthy, Beachum wasn’t effective as the Jaguars’ left tackle, and has never rebounded to his pre-injury level of play. Joeckel, meanwhile, was a massive disappointment after being drafted second overall in 2013, and had been moved to guard by the end of his Jacksonville tenure. The Seahawks, shockingly, saw fit to sign Joeckel a one-year deal worth $8MM, a price the Jags were never going match.

Jacksonville’s defensive line will see even more change than the team’s offensive line, as none of Sen’Derrick Marks, Roy Miller, Jared Odrick, nor Tyson Alualu will return in 2017. None of that group played 50% of the Jaguars’ defensive snaps last season, and each is at least 29 years old. Miller and Odrick, notably, were both sidelined by injury a year ago, and only played in 12 combined games. Of the foursome, only Miller (Chiefs) and Alualu (Steelers) have found new contracts, though Odrick has been linked to a number of clubs.

Because the Jaguars have added so much talent to their defensive backfield over the past couple of years, quality players such as Jonathan Cyprien, Prince Amukamara, and Davon House found themselves redundant in Jacksonville. Cyprien, a second-round pick in 2013, finally broke out in 2017, grading as the league’s No. 7 safety per PFF, but he’s simply not as consistent a player as new Jaguars safety Barry Church. Similarly, Amukamara has always provided competent play at each of his NFL stops, but Jacksonville wasn’t going to pay him the $7MM he landed in Chicago, especially when he’d be the team’s third corner at best. This is what roster turnover looks like.

Trades:

Acquired T Branden Albert from the Dolphins in exchange for a 2018 seventh-round pick (pick returned to Jacksonville due to Albert’s release).
Acquired a 2017 seventh-round pick (No. 240) from the Dolphins in exchange for TE Julius Thomas.
Acquired a conditional 2018 seventh-round pick from the Bengals in exchange for DE Chris Smith.
Acquired a 2017 second-round pick (No. 34; T Cam Robinson) from the Seahawks in exchange for a 2017 second-round pick (No. 35; DT Malik McDowell) and a 2017 sixth-round pick (No. 187; S Mike Tyson).

Julius Thomas posted 24 touchdowns from 2013-14 with Peyton Manning as his quarterback, and the Jaguars bought in, signing the athletic tight end to a five-year deal worth $46MM. Predictably, Thomas’ two-year stay in Jacksonville wasn’t as successful as his run in Denver, as catching passes from Blake Bortles isn’t exactly the same as handling throws from a future of Hall of Famer. From 2015-16, Thomas struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness, appearing in only 21 games and managing 76 total receptions for 736 yards and nine scores. While he still can’t help as a blocker, Thomas could rebound under Adam Gase in Miami, with whom he agreed to a renegotiated contact following his trade to South Beach.

Draft picks:

1-4: Leonard Fournette, RB (LSU)
2-34: Cam Robinson, T (Alabama)
3-68: Dawuane Smoot, DL (Illinois)
4-110: Dede Westbrook, WR (Oklahoma)
5-148: Blair Brown, LB (Ohio)
7-222: Jalen Myrick, CB (Minnesota)
7-240: Marquez Williams, FB (Miami)

While there’s certainly an argument to be made that the fourth overall pick should never be spent on a devalued position such as running back, the Jaguars bucked conventions and selected LSU’s Leonard Fournette, whom many analysts view as a once-in-a-generation runner. NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein called Fournette a “full-on, grown man” heading into the draft, and Fournette certainly ran like one during his time in the SEC. In 2015, Fournette rushed for nearly 2,000 yards and scored 19 touchdowns, and although he was limited by injury in 2016, he still averaged 6.5 yards per touch on the ground. He doesn’t factor into the passing game, however, leading to questions about his fit in today’s NFL. But if he hits, Fournette could be the next Adrian Peterson.

Like Fournette, Cam Robinson will play a large role during his rookie season, as the Alabama product is now the Jaguars’ starting left tackle following the release of Branden Albert. Jacksonville paid 109 cents on the dollar to swap Round 2 picks with Seattle, moving up to No. 34 in order to draft Robinson. Pro Football Focus compared Robinson to former Panthers tackle Michael Oher, noting Robinson’s propensity to vacillate between excellent play and sub-optimal production. In 2016, Robinson ranked 10th among all collegiate tackles with a 97.8 pass-blocking efficiency, but he also committed 23 penalties over the past two seasons.

The rest of the Jaguars’ 2017 draft picks look like backups in Year 1. Defensive lineman Dawuane Smoot could see rotational snaps during his rookie campaign, but is buried on depth chart that contains a multitude of high-end talent. Blair Brown, too, has veterans in front of him, as Myles Jack, Paul Posluszny, and Telvin Smith form one of the league’s more athletic linebacking trios. Fourth-round receiver Dede Westbrook has the best chance to earn an early-season role, as he projects as Jacksonville’s third wideout while Marqise Lee is sidelined.

Extensions and restructures:

Brandon Linder, C: Extended through 2022. Five years, $51.7MM. $19.5MM guaranteed.
Chad Henne, QB: Restructured contract. One year, $3.5MM. $500K guaranteed.

Other:

Hired Tom Coughlin as executive vice president of football operations. Extended general manager David Caldwell through 2019.
Retained Doug Marrone (interim) as head coach to replace Gus Bradley.
Retained interim offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett.
Hired Joe DeCamillis as special teams coordinator to replace Mike Mallory.
Exercised 2018 fifth-year option for QB Blake Bortles ($19.503MM).
Claimed S Tracy Howard off waivers from the Browns.
Claimed CB Charles James off waivers from the Bills.
Claimed OL Demetrius Rhaney off waivers from the Rams.
Signed 16 undrafted rookie free agents.

It’s difficult to label David Caldwell‘s tenure as Jaguars general manager anything other than a failure. Clearly, Caldwell didn’t join a Jacksonville club loaded with talent, as the Jags posted a 2-14 record the year before Caldwell was hired. But Caldwell, formerly Atlanta’s director of player personnel, hasn’t done anything to turn around Jacksonville’s fortunes, as the club has produced double-digit-loss seasons in each of the past four years. Caldwell has invested in hefty free agent deals that have gone nowhere, wasted top-five draft choices on selection such as Luke Joeckel and Blake Bortles, and fired his hand-picked head coach, Gus Bradley.

Caldwell earned a contract extension this offseason, but that was mostly in order to line up his deal with that of new executive vice president Tom Coughlin, who was hired as Caldwell’s superior. Everything the Jaguars did this offseason, from the addition of Coughlin, to the decision to retain Doug Marrone as head coach and Nathaniel Hackett as offensive coordinator, points to Jacksonville blowing up its team after 2017. If the Jaguars struggle next season, it won’t be surprising if Caldwell and Marrone are both ousted, leaving Coughlin as the ultimate decision-maker in Jacksonville.

The Jaguars’ recent handling of Bortles also points to a changing of the guard, as the club has now opened up its quarterback battle to a competition between Bortles and Chad Henne. Jacksonville has financial incentive to limit Bortles’ playing time next season, as a catastrophic injury would lead his $19.5MM 2018 option to become fully guaranteed. As such, the Jaguars could place Bortles on the bench for the duration of the year, or could even choose to waive him before the season begins. That’s probably an extreme option, but Jacksonville’s decision to allow Henne to vie for the starting quarterback job is a sign Coughlin is now calling the shots.

Top 10 cap charges for 2017:

Malik Jackson, DL: $15,500,000
Calais Campbell, DL: $10,500,000
Branden Albert, T: $8,900,000
Barry Church, S: $8,000,000
Allen Hurns, WR: $7,000,000
Blake Bortles, QB: $6,571,983
Jermey Parnell, T: $6,500,000
Dante Fowler Jr.: $6,406,429
Tashaun Gipson, S: $6,300,000
Paul Posluszny, LB: $6,166,668

2017 will undoubtedly be a turning point year for the Jaguars. Typically a preseason sleeper pick, Jacksonville could theoretically take a step forward next season and claim a division title in a weak AFC South. On the other hand, another disappointing campaign will likely lead to the complete overhaul of the roster, coaching staff, and front office. At present, the latter appears more likely, but the Jaguars could certainly shock the NFL world.

Information from Over the Cap and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

1 comment Jacksonville Jaguars Offseason In Review PFR Originals

Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Steelers

By Sam Robinson | at August 21, 2017 1:14 pm

After qualifying for their first AFC championship game in six seasons, the Steelers are once again positioned as one of the NFL’s best teams. They are firmly in the conversation as being the top AFC challenger to the Patriots and have as good of a case as any team in that group to possess the best shot at dethroning them.

But while the Patriots made several key additions this offseason, the Steelers continued their cautious approach to outside augmentation. The team fans will see this season is largely the same as what Pittsburgh supporters observed in 2016. While that’s not necessarily a bad thing given the success 2016 brought, the Patriots having appeared to improve stands to make the Steelers’ task at reaching their first Super Bowl in seven years more difficult.

Pittsburgh, though, did have several notable moments during the offseason — one headlined by seminal contract outcomes for their top skill-position talents.

Notable signings:

Le’Veon Bell, RB: One year, $12.12MM. Fully guaranteed. Assigned franchise tag.
Tyson Alualu, DT: Two years, $6MM. $1.75MM guaranteed.
Landry Jones, QB: Two years, $4.4MM. $600K guaranteed.
James Harrison, LB: Two years, $3.5MM. $500K guaranteed.
Coty Sensabaugh, CB: Two years, $2.6MM. $425K guaranteed.
David Johnson, TE: Two years, $2.05MM. $235K guaranteed.
Steven Johnson, LB: One year, minimum salary benefit. $80K guaranteed.
Justin Hunter, WR: One year, minimum salary benefit. $30K guaranteed.
Ross Cockrell, CB: One year, $1.797MM. Signed original round RFA tender.
Chris Hubbard, T: One year, $1.797MM. Signed original round RFA tender.
Knile Davis, RB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Daimion Stafford, S: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Terrell Watson, RB: One year, $465K.
JaCorey Shepherd, CB: Contract terms unknown.

Bell and the Steelers couldn’t come to terms on an agreement, and the star running back remains a holdout. While he’s expected back before the season, this is not an ideal situation. The Steelers reportedly offered the All-Pro talent a competitive deal worth $60MM over five years. Ian Rapoport of NFL.com reported the proposal included $30MM in Years 1-2 and $42MM by Year 3. As a result of the impasse going past July 17, and one that possibly featured Bell reneging on an agreed-upon contract, the sides can’t discuss a long-term deal until after this season.

The 25-year-old running back reportedly wanted a deal that also reflected his value to the Steelers as a receiver. While it’s true Bell (227 career catches) is essentially Pittsburgh’s No. 2 wideout, that’s become part of the job description for modern-day backs. It’s not as if this skill is overlooked by front offices, with backs who cannot threaten defenses aerially having tougher times getting work. Bell is one of the best there is at this discipline, but turning down a deal that would have placed him on his own financial tier is a risk, especially given his history with injuries and suspensions.

The NFL’s suspended Bell twice for substance abuse, and he’s now undergone knee and groin surgeries over the past two years. His window to sign a mammoth pact like the one reportedly offered is decreasing, especially considering how the Steelers use him. Bell averaged 28 touches per game during the 12 games be played in 2016. That workload will be tough to sustain.

However, the Steelers were willing to pay Bell $14MM on average over the first three years of this deal. His tag amount would be $14.5MM in 2018, and the Steelers — without a replacement lined up — may be amendable to that figure. If so, Bell taking the Kirk Cousins approach would pocket him nearly $30MM in two years. No other running back can match that kind of earning power. But another injury puts these hopes in jeopardy, so Bell not agreeing to long-term security now could be a pivotal moment in his career.

Other than this, free agency went pretty much as it usually does for Pittsburgh. The build-from-within franchise secured a host of role players’ returns with low-level deals and brought back Harrison again.

Now 39, Harrison remains the oldest defender in the league. He was a revelation for the AFC North champs last season, ranking as Pro Football Focus’ No. 10 edge defender — ahead of prime talents like Jason Pierre-Paul, Ryan Kerrigan and Bruce Irvin. Pittsburgh also used Harrison on 758 snaps. The workout warrior may be near the end of the line, but the Steelers still figure to coax some final months (or years?) of quality football from the 2008 defensive player of the year. Linebackers coach Joey Porter did say he plans to use the veteran as a “relief pitcher” behind the younger talents this season, though.

Jones will be back to serve as Ben Roethlisberger‘s backup for a third straight season. While the Steelers’ capabilities diminish considerably when Big Ben is out, as he generally is at some point during a season, Jones has been in Todd Haley‘s system for five years now. Jones’ completion rate jumped three percentage points, to 61 percent, last season. He fared better than he did in the past, but the Steelers drafted another quarterback to put Jones on notice. However, for 2017, Jones is probably still the franchise’s QB2.

When compared to the Patriots’ offseason additions — Brandin Cooks, Stephon Gilmore, Dwayne Allen and Co. — or the Raiders’ (Marshawn Lynch, Jared Cook, Cordarrelle Patterson), the Steelers’ approach places a premium on draft work. And it’s arguable this lack of action to plug holes, especially on defense, is doing Roethlisberger a disservice. With the 35-year-old passer now on a year-to-year arrangement, Steelers management isn’t exactly maximizing the championship window the quarterback’s given the team the way other AFC frontrunners have in recent years.

That said, the Steelers’ methods continue to produce winning teams. It’s just debatable if this offseason caution has restricted them from matching up with conference powers in January during this decade.

Notable losses:

A franchise flush with linebacker tradition saw Timmons become its most identifiable second-level defender this decade. The former first-round pick started for eight straight seasons but did not receive a third Steelers contract, venturing to Miami early in free agency. Pittsburgh already has 2014 first-round pick Ryan Shazier inside, and Vince Williams — signed through 2018 at $2.5MM per year — is much more affordable. The 2013 sixth-rounder figures to move into the starting lineup. Former Broncos two-down player Steven Johnson provides depth.

Pittsburgh deviated from its usual offseason shtick last March by signing Green for four years and $20MM, but significant injury issues essentially deprived Green from making an impact in western Pennsylvania. The Steelers cut him and will carry $3.562MM in dead money on their 2017 cap. No comparable outside acquisitions came in 2017, and the Steelers are back to using in-house tight ends. Six-foot-7 Jesse James is only entering his age-23 season and looks set to start, as he did for most of last season.

The modern-era Steelers have continued to churn out viable wide receivers and have been keen to watch most of them sign their second contracts elsewhere. From Plaxico Burress to Santonio Holmes to Mike Wallace to Emmanuel Sanders, the team has shown an incredible acumen for identifying wideouts. The Steelers’ second era of Super Bowl success involved treating every receiver except for Hines Ward and Antionio Brown as superfluous cogs.

Lately, Day 2 of the draft’s served as the Steelers’ preference for securing talent to replace departed players. That tradition continued this offseason, just as it did when Sanders departed and second-rounder Martavis Bryant arrived shortly after. JuJu Smith-Schuster came via second-round pick to replace Wheaton, who delivered an up-and-down career.

The ex-Oregon State sprinter became a serviceable complement to Brown, averaging 17 yards per catch en route to 749 yards and five touchdown receptions in 2015. Sent to IR midway through the season, Wheaton was one of many Steelers skill-position talents absent by the time they faced the Patriots in the championship game. With Bryant, Sammie Coates, Eli Rogers and Smith-Schuster in tow, Pittsburgh has a good chance of replacing Wheaton as it has his supporting-cast predecessors.

Whereas receiver’s been a Day 2 priority in drafts, Pittburgh continues to pour resources into first-round pass rushers. T.J. Watt will replace Jarvis Jones, who did not make the kind of impact the team envisioned when it used a 2013 Round 1 selection on the Georgia dynamo. Even after Jones and Timmons’ exits, the Steelers still have three first-round ‘backers. Arthur Moats is a solid reserve as well.

Williams remains available, and he did not place his most recent employer among the teams with which he wouldn’t sign. Now equipped with third-rounder James Conner to supplement Fitzgerald Toussaint, the Steelers would seemingly be covered without the 34-year-old running back if Bell returned before the regular season as he’s expected to. If he doesn’t, then a Williams re-up makes sense. Williams functioned impressively for Pittsburgh during the 2015 season, amassing 907 ground yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. His yards-per-carry average dropped from 4.5 to 3.5 from 2015 to ’16, though.

Draft picks:

1-30: T.J. Watt, LB (Wisconsin)
2-62: JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR (USC)
3-94: Cameron Sutton, CB (Tennessee)
3-105: James Conner, RB (Pittsburgh)
4-135: Joshua Dobbs, QB (Tennessee)
5-173: Brian Allen, CB (Utah)
6-213: Colin Holba, LS (Louisville)
7-248: Keion Adams, LB (Western Michigan)

Watt continues the Steelers’ aggressive investment strategy regarding pass-rushing talent, with three of the team’s past five first-round picks going toward outside linebackers. The third of the Watt brothers to ascend to the NFL, T.J. Watt augments Pittsburgh’s situation at outside ‘backer. The Steelers have two first-rounders (Watt, Bud Dupree) and two proven veterans (Harrison, Moats) outside.

The Steelers finished 16th in sacks with 38 last season. Watt wasn’t viewed as a can’t-miss pass rusher, although he posted upper-echelon Combine numbers to indicate a possible future as such. And the Wisconsin standout became a much more disruptive force as a junior in increasing his pressures from 12 as a sophomore to 56 in his third college season.

Of course, 2016 was the only season that featured much Watt work, with J.J. Watt‘s younger brother playing 661 snaps last season compared to just 174 in 2015. So, the Steelers are pretty much going off that — and perhaps the otherworldly success J.J. has enjoyed since entering the league.

Smith-Schuster was a three-year fixture in the USC offense. His sophomore season — 1,454 yards, 16.3 per catch, 10 touchdowns — was stronger than his follow-up effort last fall. Although, the Trojans target still caught 10 touchdowns despite seeing his yards-per-catch figure plummet by more than three yards. The way the Steelers are presently constructed, Smith-Schuster won’t be asked to be an instant contributor. But he could be a red zone weapon and will provide depth for a team that was short on it by the end of last season.

Receiving steady reps as the Steelers’ No. 1 back, Conner steps into an interesting situation. At 235 pounds, the ex-Pittsburgh Panther could bring a complementary element to the shiftier Bell. The Steelers use Bell as a throwback bellcow-type ball carrier, but Conner has the body type — and the numbers, with 42 touchdowns during his sophomore and senior seasons combined — to be effective in short-yardage situations.

This was the third straight year the Steelers selected a corner with a Day 1 or Day 2 pick, and Sutton will push thus-far-unavailable Senquez Golson for time as a top backup behind Artie Burns, Ross Cockrell and William Gay. Golson may be on the ropes at this point, per DC Keith Butler. Dobbs profiles as a project player who can learn behind Roethlisberger and Jones.

Extensions and restructures:

Antonio Brown, WR: Extended through 2021. Four years, $68MM. $19MM guaranteed.
Alejandro Villanueva, T: Extended through 2020. Four years, $24MM.

After signing what turned out to be an incredibly team-friendly contract, Brown finally secured his overdue payday. The Steelers held firm on their policy not to address contracts with more than one year remaining on them, and Brown stayed healthy to move into a position to become the league’s highest-paid wideout. He’s now $2MM clear of the field on the wideout salary hierarchy, on a per-year basis, and Brown’s deal will undoubtedly be used when it comes time for Odell Beckham Jr. and Mike Evans to discuss extensions.

Entering his age-29 season, Brown is the only active receiver with three first-team All-Pro honors on his resume. Only three modern-era wideouts — Jerry Rice, Terrell Owens and Randy Moss — have earned more than three such distinctions. The former sixth-round pick out of Central Michigan has turned in the most productive four-season stretch any receiver’s ever authored and is on a Hall of Fame course.

Brown being tied to Pittsburgh for five more seasons, with Pittsburgh being unable to comfortably jettison the contract until the 2021 season, could affect Roethlisberger’s retirement decision. Big Ben considered stepping away this offseason but backed out. Now, he has Brown and Bryant tied to the Steelers for at least two more seasons.

Roethlisberger’s blindside protector did not have as obvious of a case as Brown for a new contract. Villanueva’s late NFL entry placed him as a rare 28-year-old ERFA; two more years remained on his league-minimum deal. While the starting left tackle had outplayed that agreement, the Steelers didn’t have much incentive for enhancing Villaueva’s salary. And these discussions transpired for months.

But like they did with ERFA-turned-Super Bowl hero Willie Parker a decade before, the Steelers came to an agreement with Villanueva. He could have possibly gotten more per year when he became a UFA, but being that he would have been almost 30 once he hit the market, Villanueva and the Steelers came to a compromise. While $6MM AAV is lower-end starting left tackle money, placing Villanueva 20th — and essentially last among non-rookie-deal blindside blockers — the ex-UDFA accepted the terms to secure a reasonable commitment before his value potentially deteriorates.

Other:

Extended head coach Mike Tomlin through 2020.
Exercised 2018 fifth-year option for LB Ryan Shazier ($8.718MM).
Learned WR Martavis Bryant was reinstated from suspension.
Signed nine undrafted rookie free agents.

In extending Tomlin through 2020, the Steelers could be set up for an unthinkable procession of leaders. Should Tomlin coach through the 2020 campaign, which would be his 14th as a head coach, the franchise will have gone more than 50 years with just three head coaches. While Chuck Noll did the most to make this a possibility in coaching for 23 seasons (1969-91), Bill Cowher (1992-2006) and Tomlin have played big parts in the continuity associated with this operation.

Obviously leading the league with six Super Bowl titles, the Steelers are one of just two teams — joining the Broncos — to have made a conference title game in the 1970s, ’80s, ’90s, ’00s and ’10s. While Tomlin’s had the benefit of Roethlisberger to help install the Steelers as perpetual contenders, Pittsburgh fielded elite defenses during its championship runs in the defensive-minded coach’s early years. And the steady success will have the 45-year-old HC set to become one of the highest-paid sideline bosses in the game.

When on the field, Shazier has shown himself to be one of the most athletic pure linebackers in the game. While he’s missed 14 games in his three-year career, Shazier enters 2017 as one of Pittsburgh’s most important players. In addition to finishing with exactly 87 tackles and 3.5 sacks for a second straight season, Shazier intercepted three passes and deflected nine more. The versatile ‘backer isn’t a fan of the fifth-year option, but with none of the other 2014 first-rounders having signed extensions yet, his franchise isn’t planning to buck the trend first.

The Steelers did not replace Bryant effectively last season, and it lowered their offensive ceiling. Coates has yet to show much consistency, and Wheaton’s injury further limited Roethlisberger’s weaponry. Bryant has scored 14 touchdowns in 21 games and is one of the NFL’s premier deep threats. The Steelers still managed to rank fifth in passing last season but finished with 400 fewer yards than 2015 despite Roethlisberger playing in two more games. Roethlisberger’s 328.2 passing yards per game from 2015 are by far a career high, and his 4,952 yards in 2014 easily represent his best as an NFLer.

Bryant undoubtedly adds a dimension to this offense but will obviously have to prove he’s moved past the off-field trouble that’s defined his career.

Top 10 cap charges for 2017:

Ben Roethlisberger, QB: $18,200,000
Antonio Brown, WR: $13,618,334
Le’Veon Bell, RB: $12,120,000
Maurkice Pouncey, C: $11,051,000
David DeCastro, G: $11,050,000
Cameron Heyward, DE: $10,400,000
Mike Mitchell, S: $8,135,416
Marcus Gilbert, T: $7,308,500
Ramon Foster, G: $3,591,666
Ladarius Green, TE: $3,562,500 (dead money)

The Steelers return many players responsible for securing three straight playoff berths, but for having a future Hall of Fame quarterback, an argument can be made the team has underachieved in recent seasons. This one represents another chance to capitalize on having Roethlisberger under center.

With upgrades coming at wideout and pass rusher, the Steelers should be better than they were in 2016. Roethlisberger’s health is obviously essential. But with top AFC North rivals Cincinnati and Baltimore potentially not being playoff-caliber teams, Pittsburgh has a better chance to challenge for its first playoff bye since 2010.

The case for the Steelers having improved exists, but one based around the franchise not doing enough this offseason to present the best possible challenge to the Patriots does as well. As such, it will be on the Steelers’ holdovers to make this a keystone season.

Information from Over the Cap and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

5 comments Offseason In Review PFR Originals Pittsburgh Steelers

PFR Originals: 8/13/17 – 8/20/17

By Dallas Robinson | at August 20, 2017 2:30 pm

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

While the NFL doesn’t see as many trades as the NBA or MLB, deals can often be swung in the weeks leading up to the regular season. With that in mind, I examined the Top 30 NFL Trade Candidates for 2017, with players such as A.J. McCarron, Carlos Hyde, Reggie Ragland, and Stephone Anthony making the list.
Ryan Mathews was released by the Eagles last week, but he should be able to find work in the near future, as I made the case that Mathews is the perfect backup running back. Based on his production, scheme fit, cost, and the lack of running back options on the open market, Mathews will be a nice find for whichever team lands him.
With the 2017 regular season only several weeks away, PFR began its annual Offseason In Review series, assessing the major signings, departures, trades, and other notable events for each of the 32 NFL clubs. We covered three teams this week:

1 comment PFR Originals

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

By Dallas Robinson | at August 19, 2017 6:50 pm

Last year’s Buccaneers didn’t break the club’s decade-long streak of sitting at home during the postseason, but they did post their best record since 2010. Under first-year head coach Dirk Koetter, quarterback Jameis Winston showed marked improvement, while Tampa Bay’s defense also posted better results under new coordinator Mike Smith. With an eye towards earning a playoff berth for first time since the Jon Gruden era, the Buccaneers entered the offseason with clear goals in mind.

Notable signings:

DeSean Jackson, WR: Three years, $33.5MM. $20MM guaranteed.
William Gholston, DE: Four years, $27.5MM. $7MM guaranteed. $9MM available via incentives.
Chris Baker, DT: Three years, $15.75MM. $6MM guaranteed.
J.J. Wilcox, S: Two years, $6.5MM. $3.125MM guaranteed.
Josh Robinson, CB: Two years, $5MM. $3MM guaranteed.
Chris Conte, S: Two years, $5MM. $2.5MM guaranteed.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB: One year, $3MM. $1.25MM guaranteed. $2MM available via incentives.
Joe Hawley, OL: Two years, $6MM. $1MM guaranteed.
Nick Folk, K: One year, $1.75MM. $750K guaranteed.
Jacquizz Rodgers, RB: Two years, $3.3MM. $600K guaranteed.
Sealver Siliga, DT: One year, $1.1MM. $200K guaranteed.
Garrison Sanborn, LS: One year, minimum salary benefit. $50K guaranteed.
Ryan Griffin, QB: One year, $1.797MM. Signed original round RFA tender.
Jacquies Smith, DE: One year, $1.797MM. Signed original round RFA tender.
Robert McClain, CB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Justin Trattou, DE: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Marqueston Huff, S: One year, $690K.
Tavaris Barnes, DE: One year, $540K.

While the Buccaneers passing offense ranked a respectable 12th in DVOA last season, the unit didn’t post many explosive plays, as Tampa Bay finished 24th in 20+ yard receptions and dead last in 40+ yard catches. Mike Evans, Adam Humphries, and Cameron Brate formed the foundation of a solid passing game, but a new dimension was clearly needed. Enter DeSean Jackson, who lead the league in yards per reception in 2016, the third time he’s done so in his nine-year career. Among receivers with at least 40 receptions last season, Jackson ranked third with 12.82 air yards per catch, meaning he’s able to get open down the field and not simply rely on yards after the catch. He also accounted for 145 yards and four first downs by drawing pass interference penalties, an underrated facet of his game. Although he’s on the wrong side of 30, Jackson is exactly what the Buccaneers offense needs, and he should be worth of every penny of a contract that makes him the ninth-highest-paid wideout in the NFL.

Joining Jackson as an offensive starter (at least for the first three games of the season) will be running back Jacquizz Rodgers, who earned the first multi-year contract of his career after averaging 4.3 yards per carry on 129 rushes a season ago. Rodgers, 27, touched the ball more than he had in any prior season, and was a workhorse for Tampa Bay in Weeks 5-7, rushing the ball 75 times during that span. He’ll be the Buccaneers’ lead back to begin the campaign while Doug Martin finishes a suspension, and Rodgers could keep the starting job for even longer, as general manager Jason Licht recently indicated Martin won’t be handed a role when he returns.

While the Bucs are comfortable rolling with Rodgers until Martin comes back, they surely won’t feel the same way if they’re forced to use new backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick for any extended period of time. That being said, Fitzpatrick isn’t a disaster as a reserve option, especially at a price of only $3MM. Yes, Fitzpatrick posted the worst statistics of any starting quarterback not named Matt Barkley or Jared Goff in 2016, but he’s not being asked to start in Tampa Bay. If Jameis Winston is sidelined next year, Fitzpatrick should at least be able to keep the club’s offense afloat.

On defense, the Buccaneers acted quickly to re-sign defensive end William Gholston, who was said to be a priority for the team in free agency. At first glance, Gholston’s five-year contract appears to be a massive overpay, as his $5.5MM annual salary is exorbitant for a run-stuffer who ranked as a bottom-20 edge defender in 2016, per Pro Football Focus. But because Tampa Bay rarely employs signing bonuses, Gholston’s deal is essentially a one-year pact. All of his $7MM guarantee comes in 2017, and the Buccaneers could cut ties after the season without any dead money incurring on their cap. If Tampa is able to land a top-notch pass rusher in next year’s draft, I’d expect Gholston to be on the chopping block.

New defensive tackle Chris Baker will be lining up next to Gholston after the Bucs lured him away from the nation’s capital with a three-year agreement, and he should be able to help out a Tampa Bay run defense that took a major step backward under first-year defensive coordinator Mike Smith. While the Buccaneers’ pass defense improved from 26th in DVOA to sixth, the club’s prowess against the run slipped from ninth in DVOA to 26th, while Tampa’s defensive line ranked 24th in adjusted line yards. Baker is a stud in the run game, but he’s also adept at getting after opposing quarterbacks, as he ranked 11th among defensive tackles with 16 hurries last season.

Chris Conte keeps getting chances despite grading as one of the least capable safeties in the league for the duration of his career. Last season, PFF ranked Conte as the second-worst safety in the NFL, but the Buccaneers still re-signed him to a two-year pact. Thankfully, Tampa Bay isn’t asking Conte to play a full complement of snaps in 2017, as they’ve signed former Cowboy J.J. Wilcox and drafted Justin Evans in the second round. Wilcox, 26, only played half of Dallas’ defensive snaps a season ago, but had significant starting experience in 2014-15. Josh Robinson is back to help out in the secondary, as well, but most of his time will be spent as a gunner on special teams.

Tampa Bay signed kicker Nick Folk to hedge against Roberto Aguayo‘s struggles, and the move now seems prescient following Aguayo’ release. Although Tampa handed Folk a $750K guarantee, the club was only nominally on the hook for that money — had Folk been cut, he likely would’ve been picked up by another team, and the offset language in his deal would have freed the Bucs from his commitment. The Jets, Folk’s former employer, ranked dead last in special teams DVOA last season, but that wasn’t Folk’s fault, as he converted 87.1% of his kicks (including 50% from 50+ yards) and gave New York 0.3 points of field position. He didn’t do well on kickoffs, however, as he ranked just 23rd among kickers with 39 touchbacks.

Notable losses:

While the Buccaneers are losing a number of offensive players in Vincent Jackson, Russell Shepard, Cecil Shorts, and Brandon Myers, it’s difficult to say the club will miss any of them all that much, as that foursome combined for only 20% of Tampa Bay’s targets in 2016. Shepard led the group with 40 targets and 23 receptions, and he’s the only one that’s landed a new contract (with the division rival Panthers). The Buccaneers signed DeSean Jackson to replace Shepard, who ranked a below-average 65th among wideouts with at least 40 targets with a 57.5% catch rate.

Although Jackson hasn’t yet found a new home, he’s given no indication that he plans to retire. Now 34 years old, Jackson played out the entirety of his five-year deal with the Buccaneers, and though he was extremely productive during the first three seasons of the pact, injuries wrecked his 2015-16 campaigns. As of March, Jackson planned to continue his career, and while it doesn’t appear he’s a candidate to re-sign with Tampa Bay, it’s possible he could find a contract as the regular season approaches, although it may require a team suffering an injury on their wide receiver depth chart.

Mike Glennon meshed with Jackson back in 2013, helping the veteran receiver 78-catch, 1,200+ yard season — but in the next three years, Glennon managed only 214 pass attempts as the Buccaneers instead turned to Josh McCown and Jameis Winston. Entering his age-27 season, Glennon clearly wanted to hit the open market and find a starting job (although it’s unclear if he’ll actually get that opportunity with the Bears). But Tampa didn’t let Glennon go without a fight: the club made numerous attempts to re-sign Glennon, and even offered him to make him the league’s highest-paid backup quarterback with an annual salary of $8MM.

On the other side of the ball, the Buccaneers parted with ways with two defensive backs, allowing safety Bradley McDougald to leave via free agency while releasing cornerback Alterraun Verner. The decision to cut ties with Verner was the correct one, as he was barely contributing on defense and was scheduled to carry a $6.5MM cap charge in 2017. But Tampa might have considered retaining McDougald, who is still only 26 years old and signed for just one year with Seattle. The Buccaneers essentially chose J.J. Wilcox, and while PFF assigned Wilcox a higher grade, McDougald had a much larger sample size (nearly double the snaps).

Tampa has used draft choices on linebackers in each of the past two seasons (Devante Bond in 2016 and Kendell Beckwith in 2017), meaning there was no role for veteran Daryl Smith. Smith, now 35, played a two-down role for the Buccaneers last season, playing 45% of the club’s defensive snaps behind Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander. Given his age and his mediocre performance, Smith has probably hit the end of the line, and if so, he’s posted an excellent career. He started 184 games over 13 seasons, and ranks as the 11th-most valuable member of the 2004 draft class by Pro Football Reference’s approximate value metric.

The Buccaneers’ most recent notable transaction was waiving kicker Roberto Aguayo, whom the club infamously selected in the second round of the 2016 draft after trading 132 cents on the dollar to move up. The choice wasn’t defensible at the time, as Justis Mosqueda of Setting the Edge recently detailed Aguayo’s collegiate struggles from 40+ yards should dissuaded Tampa Bay from drafting the Florida State product. But good on general manager Jason Licht for admitting his mistake and cutting his losses. Even better, the Bears curiously claimed Aguayo off waivers, clearing his partially guaranteed base salary from the Bucs’ 2017 books.

Trades:

Acquired a 2017 third-round pick (No. 107; LB Kendell Beckwith) from the Jets in exchange for a 2018 fourth-round pick (No. 125) and a 2017 sixth-round pick (No. 204; CB Derrick Jones).
Acquired a 2017 seventh-round pick (No. 223; DT Steve Tu’ikolovatu) from the Dolphins in exchange for a 2017 seventh-round pick (No. 237; WR Isaiah Ford) and a 2018 seventh-round pick.

Draft picks:

1-19: O.J. Howard, TE (Alabama)
2-50: Justin Evans, S (Texas A&M)
3-84: Chris Godwin, WR (Penn State)
3-107: Kendell Beckwith, LB (LSU)
5-162: Jeremy McNichols, RB (Boise State)
7-223: Steve Tu’ikolovatu, DT (USC)

Just seven tight ends have been selected in the first round over the past ten years, and only Eric Ebron — chosen 10th overall in 2014 — was picked higher than O.J. Howard. The Buccaneers, of course, already boast one excellent tight end in Cameron Brate, who finished fourth in DYAR last season while leading all tight ends with eight receiving touchdowns. Tampa Bay ran two tight end sets on 23% of its offensive plays in 2016 (7% above league average), and the percentage figures to increase during the upcoming campaign. Howard will likely begin his career as an in-line tight end, as Jenna Laine of ESPN.com reports he’s already made a “noticeable difference” with his blocking.

Left tackle Donovan Smith, particularly, needs all the help he can get, as the Buccaneers ranked 24th in adjusted line yards when running towards the left tackle and 26th when running around the left end. Because Smith has struggled so much through two NFL seasons (No. 65 tackle in 2016, per PFF), it’s fair to wonder why Tampa Bay didn’t consider an offensive lineman such as Garret Bolles or Cam Robinson with the No. 19 selection. Jameis Winston took the most hits of any quarterback last season (87), per the 2017 Football Outsiders Almanac, and protecting their young quarterback should be the Buccaneer’s top priority. However, Winston posted the third-best DVOA against pressure last year, according to Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders, so perhaps Tampa doesn’t feel investing in its offensive line is all that important.

Second-round safety Justin Evans could end up playing the most snaps of any Buccaneers rookie, as he’s currently projected to start in the back end (although Keith Tandy could have something to say about that). Chris Godwin — whom Matt Harmon of Perception Reception fame called the draft’s most underrated receiver — and Jeremy McNichols will likely begin their careers pushed down the offensive depth chart, but injuries could allow them playing time as the season progresses. Kendell Beckwith is still recovering from a torn ACL and could potentially “redshirt” during his rookie season. Steve Tu’ikolovatu is huge and (relatively) old.

Extensions and restructures:

J.R. Sweezy, G: Restructured contract. Converted 2017 $2.5MM base salary and $2.5MM roster bonus to $3.75MM base salary, with $1.25MM available via incentives. Base salaries reduced in 2018-20.

Other:

Extended defensive coordinator Mike Smith.
Exercised 2018 fifth-year option for WR Mike Evans ($13.258MM).
Learned CB Jude Adjei-Barimah will miss 2017 season (patellar fracture).
Signed 14 undrafted rookie free agents.

The Buccaneers’ decision to exercise Mike Evans‘ 2018 option was a complete formality, so let’s use this space to toss out some Evans stats. Since 1970, Evans is fifth among three-year receivers in receiving yards, sixth in receptions, and seventh in touchdowns. In 2016, he was especially proficient, as he reduced his drop percentage from 7.4% in 2015 to just 4.1%. He ranked sixth in DYAR, and was one of only two pass-catchers to post a PFF grade over 90.0 (the other being Julio Jones). Evans was also particularly clutch, as he lead the NFL with 80 receptions that went for a first down or touchdown (29 of those came on third or fourth down, also tops among wideouts). Did we mention that he doesn’t turn 24 until next week?

Top 10 cap charges for 2017:

Gerald McCoy, DT: $13,750,000
DeSean Jackson, WR: $12,500,000
Brent Grimes, CB: $8,000,000
William Gholston, DE: $7,000,000
Doug Martin, RB: $7,000,000
Jameis Winston, QB: $6,913,985
Robert Ayers, DL: $6,250,000
Chris Baker, DT: $6,000,000
Lavonte David, LB: $6,000,000
Mike Evans, WR: $4,655,478

Although the NFC South boast the conference champion, the division appears wide open — ESPN’s Football Power Index projects each team in the NFC South to win between 7.7 and 9.3 games. The Buccaneers are at the bottom of the projected divisional standings, but there’s no reason they can’t compete for the division title or — at the least — a wild card slot.

Information from Over the Cap and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason In Review: Baltimore Ravens

By Rory Parks | at August 18, 2017 9:40 am

The Ravens narrowly missed the playoffs last year, blowing a golden opportunity to put themselves in the driver’s seat for a divisional title in Week 16 before allowing the Steelers to drive the length of the field in the game’s waning moments. That was essentially the story of the season for Baltimore, as missed opportunities and fourth quarter collapses turned what might have been a successful campaign into a disappointment.

Depending on who you ask, the offseason has not been much better. The Ravens focused most of their attention, both in free agency and in the draft, on the defensive side of the ball when the offense sorely needed help. While Jeremy Maclin surprisingly falling into their laps late in the spring helped to mitigate that somewhat, the offensive line is still a major question mark. It’s also fair to wonder how wise it is for the team to depend so heavily on third-year wideout Breshad Perriman considering that he missed his entire rookie season with a knee injury, had an up-and-down 2016, and is currently being held out of training camp with hamstring soreness (thus halting the momentum he had built in spring and in the early stages of camp).

The Ravens have a fair amount of talent and could make some noise in the AFC North, though their recent spate of injuries is threatening to derail the season before it starts. One might also ask whether the conservative and predictable play-calling of offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg and defensive coordinator Dean Pees will get the most out of their talent, and whether a mixed bag of an offseason will be enough to get Baltimore back to the postseason.

Notable signings:

Brandon Williams, DT: Five years, $52.5MM. $24.5MM guaranteed.
Tony Jefferson, S: Four years, $34MM. $19MM guaranteed. $3MM available via incentives.
Jeremy Maclin, WR: Two years, $11MM. $6MM guaranteed. $3MM available via incentives.
Brandon Carr, CB: Four years, $24MM. $4MM guaranteed.
Danny Woodhead, RB: Three years, $8.8MM. $3.25MM guaranteed.
Anthony Levine, S: Three years, $4.2MM. $1.3MM guaranteed.
Lardarius Webb, S: Three years, $6.3MM. $1.2MM guaranteed. $1.4MM available annually via incentives. Had previously been released.
Michael Campanaro, WR: One year, $1.2MM. $250K guaranteed. $800K available via incentives.
James Hurst, T: One year, $1.2MM. $250K guaranteed.
Austin Howard, T: Three years, $16MM. Guarantees unknown.
Ryan Jensen, G: One year, $1.797MM. Signed original round RFA tender.
Terrance West, RB: One year, $1.797MM. Signed original round RFA tender.
Brandon Boykin, CB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Larry Donnell, TE: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Thaddeus Lewis, QB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Bobby Rainey, RB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Trevin Wade, CB: One year, minimum salary benefit.
Griff Whalen, WR: One year, minimum salary benefit.

The Ravens landed two key offensive pieces late in the offseason in Maclin and Austin Howard, but until that point, they had invested the vast majority of their assets into the defensive side of the ball. One of the most curious moves of the offseason was the massive payday Baltimore doled out to Brandon Williams. Williams is a terrific player to be sure, but he’s not a generational talent, and Baltimore has a quality defensive tackle in Michael Pierce that might have filled in capably for Williams at a fraction of the price. Plus, the Ravens have always been able to find quality defensive linemen. It has been more of a struggle to find quality offensive pieces, and the fact that Baltimore spent so lavishly on Williams and Tony Jefferson while letting right tackle Ricky Wagner walk in free agency and ignoring free agent wideouts like Alshon Jeffery and Terrelle Pryor — who both signed relatively inexpensive deals — certainly raised some eyebrows.

Luckily for the Ravens, it may have worked out anyway, though it’s hard to say it was by design. No one expected a receiver like Maclin to become available when he did, and while Howard could be a solid replacement for Wagner, he is coming off an injury-plagued season in which his performance took a noticeable dip. Danny Woodhead, who for a long time was Baltimore’s big offensive acquisition, offers a nice complement to the bruising running style of Terrance West, and if he can stay healthy — a big “if” for players wearing purple and black these days — he should be a big contributor as a receiver out of the backfield and will surely line up in the slot a fair amount.

Jefferson will join last year’s big free agent splurge, Eric Weddle, to form arguably the best safety tandem in the game, and the Ravens also signed Brandon Carr to bolster its cornerback corps, which has been thin in recent seasons and which has really suffered when No. 1 corner Jimmy Smith has been forced to sit out due to injury. Unfortunately for Baltimore, sophomore corner Tavon Young, who was excellent in his rookie season, tore his ACL and will miss all of 2017, which precipitated the Brandon Boykin signing. Maurice Canady, another sophomore corner who enjoyed a terrific spring and a strong start to training camp, was the favorite to replace Young, but he, too, went down with a potentially serious knee injury, so it looks as if Smith and Carr will man the perimeter while Boykin or stalwart Lardarius Webb will line up in the slot (though first-round draft choice Marlon Humphrey could replace Carr later in the season). That sounds like a decent enough group of CBs, but one more injury could lead to the same problems in coverage that the Ravens have experienced of late.

Nonetheless, the defense looks strong as a whole, and with the influx of young athleticism that the team added to that side of the ball in the draft, the only thing holding that unit back (outside of injury) is Pees. Wideouts Maclin, Mike Wallace, and Perriman offer considerable talent and complementary skill-sets on the offensive side of the ball, and if the Ravens can find some production from the tight end spot — see below — and if Joe Flacco can overcome his back injury, Baltimore should be in pretty good shape.

Kamar Aiken, WR
Kyle Arrington, CB: Released
Vlad Ducasse, G
Matt Elam, S
Lawrence Guy, DL
Marqueston Huff, S: Tender withdrawn
Kyle Juszczyk, FB
Kendrick Lewis, S: Released
Chris Lewis-Harris, CB
Zach Orr, LB: Retired (now attempting comeback)
Dennis Pitta: Released
Jerraud Powers, CB: Retired
Jumal Rolle, S: Tender withdrawn
Steve Smith, WR: Retired
John Urschel, C: Retired
Ricky Wagner, T
Shareece Wright, CB: Released

Many of the Ravens’ losses will not be missed, as they were marginal starters or roster filler. Steve Smith‘s production should be more than adequately replaced by Maclin and a more seasoned Perriman, and while Zach Orr‘s retirement (?) was an unpleasant surprise, he is hardly irreplaceable. The surprise retirement that arguably hurt the team more was that of John Urschel. His departure from the game, along with the subsequent season-ending injuries to Alex Lewis and Nico Siragusa, have left a massive void at left guard that has led the team to consider signing Jeremy Zuttah (Zuttah would play center and shift Ryan Jensen to left guard). Zuttah was a turnstile in 2016, he does not fit in a power-running scheme, and the Ravens thought so little of him that they traded him to the 49ers earlier this offseason for the right to move up 12 spots in the sixth round of the draft (Zuttah was later released by San Francisco and is currently a free agent).

Much has been made of Dennis Pitta‘s release, which was precipitated by yet another hip injury, and the hole that will leave in the Ravens’ offense. In reality, although Pitta did haul in 86 catches last year, very few of his receptions went for significant yardage, and he was more of a dump-off option (in a dump-off heavy offense) in 2016. The Ravens’ tight end corps is far from reliable, given that Ben Watson is 36 and is coming off a torn ACL, Crockett Gillmore suffered a season-ending knee injury, Maxx Williams has had difficult staying healthy in his young career, and Darren Waller managed to get himself suspended for the entire 2017 season. Nonetheless, it is hard to argue that Pitta will be missed from an on-the-field perspective, as he had no explosiveness in 2016 and his YAC was non-existent. He was a fan favorite and it is a shame that his career has been (presumably) cut short by a series of unfortunate hip injuries, but it was time for Baltimore to move on.

Aside from the above-mentioned departure of Wagner and Urschel’s retirement, the only notable losses the Ravens sustained this offseason were due to injury, not free agency.

Trades:

Acquired a 2017 sixth-round pick (No. 186) from the 49ers in exchange for C Jeremy Zuttah and a 2017 sixth-round pick (No. 198).
Acquired a 2017 third-round pick (No. 74) from the Eagles in exchange for DT Timmy Jernigan and a 2017 third-round pick (No. 99).

Draft picks:

1-16: Marlon Humphrey, CB (Alabama)
2-47: Tyus Bowser, LB (Houston)
3-74: Chris Wormley, DT (Michigan)
3-78: Tim Williams, LB (Alabama)
4-122: Nico Siragusa, OL (San Diego State)
5-159: Jermaine Eluemunor, OL (Texas A&M)
6-186: Chuck Clark, S (Virginia Tech)

The Ravens waited until the fourth round to select an offensive player in this year’s draft, and while their fourth-round selection, Siragusa, was a quality pick, he will miss the season with a torn ACL. Nonetheless, the team began making a concerted effort in 2016 to infuse its defense with sorely-needed speed and athleticism, and that was never going to be a one-year project. Adding Bowser and Williams should be a boost to a flagging pass rush, and Bowser has looked like a three-down back in training camp. Those rookies, along with second-year linebacker Matt Judon and the aging but still effective Terrell Suggs, should allow the Ravens to generate consistent pressure on the quarterback in 2017.

The selection of Humphrey puzzled many observers, as the Ravens could have selected an offensive play-maker like O.J. Howard even though their top wide receiver targets were off the board long before Baltimore was on the clock. However, Humphrey has plenty of promise as an outside corner, and the same analysts who criticized the team for failing to select an offensive talent were also quick to point out in recent seasons that the Ravens needed to address their thin secondary. While Humphrey is not suited to play in the slot, the injuries to slot corners Young and Canady underscore the need to continuously restock the defensive backfield, and Jimmy Smith’s injury history — and the Ravens’ struggles when he is unable to suit up — made Humphrey a solid choice. Thus far, he has validated his draft status with a strong showing in spring and in training camp.

Eluemunor was selected as a raw talent that the team hoped to bring along slowly, but he could be thrust into the starting lineup sooner rather than later considering the holes that the Ravens have on their O-line. Indeed, he could emerge as one of the surprise impact players of 2017 if he can somehow start living up to his potential right away.

Extensions and restructures:

Jimmy Smith, CB: Restructured contract. Created $5.15MM in cap space by converting $7.725MM in 2017 base salary into signing bonus.
Ben Watson, TE: Accepted pay cut. Reduced 2017 base salary from $3MM to $1.25MM ($750K guaranteed). Incentives can bring total back to $3MM.

The Ravens were forced to restructure Jimmy Smith’s contract for the second straight year to give themselves a little breathing room, especially since they will probably need to sign at least one more offensive lineman before the regular season begins. The team has been tight against the cap for the past several seasons, and contracts like the one they handed out to Williams have exacerbated that problem. Baltimore actually has so much D-line depth at the moment that it will probably need to trade at least one quality player in the coming weeks, which further emphasizes the point that it could have spent its money more wisely.

Other:

Hired former Bills OC Greg Roman as senior offensive assistant/tight ends coach.
Exercised 2018 fifth-year option for LB C.J. Mosley ($8.718MM).
Learned RB Kenneth Dixon would miss the 2017 season (torn meniscus). Dixon had been suspended four games (PEDs).
Learned TE Crockett Gillmore would miss the 2017 season (torn meniscus).
Learned OL Alex Lewis would miss the 2017 season (shoulder surgery).
Learned OL Nico Siragusa would miss the 2017 season (torn ACL).
Learned CB Tavon Young would miss the 2017 season (torn ACL).
Learned TE Darren Waller was suspended at least one year (substance abuse).
Signed 15 undrafted rookie free agents.

The theme of the Ravens’ offseason has been injuries. We have already touched on most of the injuries referenced here, but the Dixon injury will also hurt the team in a big way. While West is a competent back, and Woodhead offers solid ability as a receiver out of the backfield, Dixon has explosive playmaking ability that the Ravens will sorely miss in 2017. The team brought in Greg Roman to strengthen a run game that was among the league’s worst in 2017, but his task becomes considerably more difficult in light of Dixon’s torn meniscus. At this point, UDFA Taquan Mizzell might be the second-best back on the roster, and Baltimore could look into adding a player like Ryan Mathews to replace Dixon.

Top 10 cap charges for 2017:

Joe Flacco, QB: $24,550,000
Jimmy Smith, CB: $12,600,000
Marshal Yanda, G: $9,125,000
Mike Wallace, WR: $8,000,000
Terrell Suggs, DE: $6,950,000
Brandon Williams, DT: $6,000,000
Eric Weddle, S: $5,750,000
Tony Jefferson, S: $5,500,000
Ronnie Stanley, T: $4,655,530
Eugene Monroe, T: $4,400,000 (dead money)

The Ravens are clearly a team with some holes, particularly along the O-line. Tight end and running back are also a bit of question mark, and if Flacco is not 100%, Baltimore is not going anywhere, Colin Kaepernick or no Colin Kaepernick.

But the Ravens also have talent. They have quality receivers (if they can stay healthy), and they have all the makings of a top-5 defense, which they will probably need to rely on heavily in 2017. The biggest obstacle for the defense, aside from health, might be Pees, who has struggled to get the most out of his defenses in his career as a defensive coordinator, and whose conservative philosophies led to some of the team’s late game collapses last year.

Luckily for Baltimore, their AFC North foes also have some serious flaws, and the Ravens have enough talent to be competitive in every game they play. If they can win one or two more of the “toss-up” games that they dropped last season, they could find themselves back in the playoffs, despite a postseason that generated as many groans as grins.

Information from Over the Cap and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Ryan Mathews

By Dallas Robinson | at August 15, 2017 5:29 pm

The Eagles finally ended the NFL’s longest charade today, releasing veteran running back Ryan Mathews months after it became clear they’d do so. Philadelphia had reason to wait, of course, as now that Mathews has received medical clearance, the club is off the hook for $1.15MM in injury protection.

Mathews, a first-round selection back in 2010, has mostly been defined by his lack of availability through seven NFL campaigns. He’s appeared in all 16 games just one time, and has missed roughly a quarter of the 112 total games in which he could’ve played. Additionally, Mathews is now on the wrong side of 30, and is hitting an age when some running backs break down.

Those negative attributes are obvious, but Mathews still has quite a bit to offer interested NFL clubs. In fact, he’s perhaps the perfect NFL backup running back. Here’s why:

Production

Given that Mathews has missed so much time during his career, it’s more informative to assess his production on a per-play basis rather than in the aggregate. Defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) is a Football Outsiders metric that measures value on a rate basis, and can be applied to either team or individual performance. In seven NFL seasons, Mathews has ranked among the top-20 running backs in DVOA five times, including a No. 3 finish in 2015. So while Mathews’ counting statistics might not be all that impressive (he’s crossed the vaunted 1,000-yard threshold only twice), he’s been extremely valuable when he’s been on the field.

Success rate is another Football Outsiders metric that’s often helpful when evaluating running backs, at it determines how well a back keeps an offense moving. In general, a run will deemed a success if a back gains 40% of the needed yards on first down, 60% of the needed yards on second down, and 100% of the needed yardage on third down.

Different situations can adjust those percentage tiers, but overall the formula is a good indicator of how well a back is keeping an offense “on schedule,” as Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com writes. Mathews grades incredibly well based on success rate: In his seven NFL campaigns, he’s finished as a top-25 back in success rate six times, and ranked among the top-10 twice (2013 and 2015).

While he’s not an above-average pass blocker, Mathews can be useful in the passing game. He’s averaged 26 receptions per season during his career, and even reached 50 catches in 2011. Since entering the league in 2010, Mathews ranks eighth among all running backs with a 79.3% catch rate on 226 targets, so he can be relied on as a passing game weapon. Fumbles have been an issue for Mathews, however, as he ranks first among NFL backs with 21 fumbles since 2010.

As a backup running back, Mathews would — by definition — see his touches reduced. Not only would that perhaps allow Mathews to stay healthy, but he can still remain productive when he is called upon. Not being asked to play starter’s snaps would help both Mathews and the team that signs him.

Scheme Fit

When the Eagles signed Mathews prior to the 2015 season, NFL Films producer Greg Cosell called him a “decisive downhill runner,” and Fran Duffy of PhiladelphiaEagles.com explained why those traits worked so well for what was — at the time — a zone-blocking-Eagles run game. But Mathews can conceivably fit in any number of offenses, as Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus explained to me.

“I think [Mathews] can be a useful member of a backfield,” said Monson. “I actually think he’s quite scheme diverse and pretty versatile as a back, so he should have options.”

Additionally, Mathews has played under a number of offensive minds who are still employed in various roles throughout the league. That list includes Mike McCoy (Broncos offensive coordinator), Rob Chudzinski (Colts OC), Pat Shurmur (Vikings OC), Hal Hunter (Browns offensive line coach), and Jason Michael (Titans quarterbacks coach), meaning there’s no shortage of offensive coaches who have firsthand experience with Mathews.

Cost

Coming off an injury-plagued season in 2014, Mathews landed a three-year deal worth $11MM ($5MM guaranteed) with the Eagles. As he hits free agency for the second time in his career, Mathews won’t come anywhere near that total: while he’s offered solid production on a rate basis over the past two seasons, he’s also two years older and just recovered from a serious neck injury.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise if Mathews can only score a minimum salary benefit deal in the coming weeks. Such a contract would allow a club to pay Mathews at the seven-year veteran rate of $900K while only using $615K in cap space. Mathews could also receive a signing bonus of up to $80K.

Recent contracts for veteran running backs include Jacquizz Rodgers (two years, $3.3MM), Robert Turbin (two years, $2.7MM), and Lance Dunbar (one year, $1.5MM). Dunbar is probably the best comparable given that he’s spent most of the past two seasons dealing with injuries and ineffectiveness, but he’s also three years younger than Mathews. Whichever team signs Mathews should plan on taking on an eminently affordable salary, and cap space won’t be a barrier.

Signing Mathews would also eliminate another potential opportunity cost — the draft pick capital it may require to trade for a running back. Earlier today, I examined several backs that could be dealt in the near future, including Carlos Hyde, Jeremy Hill, and T.J. Yeldon, all of whom are probably upgrades on Mathews, but all of whom will require the sacrifice of a draft pick. For clubs that aren’t inclined to trade away future value, signing Mathews would cost only money, not picks.

Market

Mathews became the best available free agent running back the second he was released by the Eagles. While other veteran options include Rashad Jennings, DeAngelo Williams, and James Starks, none offer the combination of talent and relative youth that does Mathews. Any team looking for running back help should instantly vault Mathews to their top of their free agent lists.

With that said, here’s a look at several clubs that could make sense as a landing spot for Mathews:

Baltimore Ravens: Kenneth Dixon was already going to miss the first four games of the season after being suspended, but now he’ll be sidelined for the entire 2017 campaign after undergoing knee surgery. Terrance West looks like Baltimore’s bell-cow, while Danny Woodhead will play on passing downs. Mathews could give the Ravens another viable option in the backfield, and Baltimore’s coaches “have a lot of respect for” Mathews, as Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun tweets.

Detroit Lions: On an NFL-low 350 rushing attempts, the Lions finished 27th in yards per carry, 25th in DVOA, and 31st in adjusted line yards last season. Detroit has already upgraded its offensive line by signing Ricky Wagner and T.J. Lang, but the club is still relying on Ameer Abdullah, Dwayne Washington, Zach Zenner, and free agent addition Matt Asiata at running back. The Lions have reportedly talked with Rashad Jennings, but Mathews is a better player.

Los Angeles Chargers: Back to where it all began? With new head coach Anthony Lynn in town, the Chargers figure to lean heavily on the run, meaning Melvin Gordon could need a breather every once in awhile. Los Angeles’ reserves behind Gordon — Kenneth Farrow, Branden Oliver, Kenjon Barner, Andre Williams — are nothing to write home about, so Mathews could help out, especially as a pass-catcher.

Miami Dolphins: Mathews makes sense for the Dolphins, opines Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald (Twitter link), especially given that Jay Ajayi is recovering from a concussion. Ajayi, who dealt with knee injuries in college, needs a solid backup behind him in case injury issues crop up again. Damien Williams and Kenyan Drake (also battling a concussion) are interesting players, but Mathews is a more known commodity.

New York Giants: Big Blue ranked 26th in rushing DVOA last season, and the only investment they’ve made at the running back position since has been fourth-round rookie Wayne Gallman. While the Giants have made noise about Paul Perkins serving as a three-down back, Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com reports Perkins “hasn’t blown anyone away” at camp, meaning the club could be searching for reinforcements.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Franchise-tagged running back Le’Veon Bell hasn’t yet reported to training camp, and while the Steelers may expect him to show up before the regular season starts, Pittsburgh might not want to rely too heavily on Fitzgerald Toussaint and rookie James Conner. Playing behind one the league’s best offensive lines, Mathews could have success with the Steelers.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Top 30 NFL Trade Candidates

By Dallas Robinson | at August 15, 2017 10:00 am

While the NFL isn’t a trade-happy league like the NBA or MLB, deals are becoming more common as each season progresses. Draft pick swaps will always dominate any listing of NFL trades, deals involving veteran players aren’t as rare as they once were. Seven trades involving veteran players have occurred since the draft ended — at this time last year, only one such deal had gone down. As Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap noted in his excellent salary cap book, Crunching Numbers, trades are likely to become ordinary as front offices are taken over by younger, more out-of-the-box thinkers.

The players listed below as trade candidates aren’t ranked in any specific order — rather, we’ve attempted a league-wide look at players who could conceivably be on the move in the coming weeks or months. Contract status, overall ability, scheme fit, age, and coaching staff alterations all play a role in value, and each trait was factored into the likelihood of an individual player being dealt.

As always, you can find PFR’s complete list of 2017 NFL Trades right here.

Quarterback

A.J. McCarron, Bengals
Brock Osweiler, Browns

Although the Bengals haven’t openly shopped A.J. McCarron, they haven’t completely sealed off the idea of dealing their backup quarterback. The asking price is extremely high, however, as Cincinnati reportedly wants a first-round draft choice for McCarron. An unidentified team offered a second-rounder for McCarron this offseason, and the Bengals declined, an indication of the value the club places on McCarron.

Most likely, Cincinnati will need an injury to strike — and a club to get desperate — in order to meet its demands. In 2016, for example, the Vikings shipped a first-round pick to the Eagles in exchange for Sam Bradford after incumbent signal-caller Teddy Bridgewater went down. That situation presented the perfect opportunity for Philadelphia to reap compensation for Bradford, as Minnesota was a contending team with an immediate need under center. Bradford offered much more NFL experience than does McCarron, so a trade of the Bengals No. 2 quarterback remains unlikely.

Brock Osweiler, meanwhile, has a chance to act as the Browns’ Week 1 starter, but he’s not a long-term option for a club that used a second-round pick on DeShone Kizer. Cleveland has already rejected at least one trade offer for Osweiler this offseason, but it simply doesn’t make sense for the team to retain him on their roster. Having already acquired a second-round choice in exchange for taking on Osweiler’s contract, the Browns should convert most of his base salary guarantee into a signing bonus (thus reducing the cap hit for any interested parties) and send him to a quarterback-needy club.

Running back

Jeremy Hill, Bengals
Carlos Hyde, 49ers
Matt Jones, Redskins
Charles Sims, Buccaneers
T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars

New coaching staffs and pending free agency are key factors in labeling a player a trade candidate, and Carlos Hyde fits into both those buckets. Reports near the draft indicated the new 49ers regime wasn’t sold on Hyde, who has just one year left on his rookie contract, and the club has added several running backs this year, including free agent Tim Hightower and draft choice Joe Williams. Squarely in the midst of a rebuild, San Francisco has no reason to hold onto Hyde if it doesn’t plan to re-sign him, and early indications are Hyde hasn’t been offered an extension.

Charles Sims could play a key role for the Buccaneers while Doug Martin is suspended for the first three games of the season, but his long-term role with Tampa Bay is unclear. General manager Jason Licht said earlier this year that Martin “looked as good as [he’s] ever seen him,” and I’d guess Martin will reclaim the Bucs’ starting job once he returns. Until that point, Tampa Bay could probably get by with a committee of Jacquizz Rodgers, Peyton Barber, and Jeremy McNichols if it decides it can get a draft pick for Sims, who is scheduled for free agency in 2018.

There are enough teams around the NFL looking for depth at running back that each of these backs should be able to create some sort of trade market. Speculative fits: Jeremy Hill, Giants; Hyde, Ravens; Matt Jones, Lions; Sims, Steelers; T.J. Yeldon, Chargers.

Wide receiver

Phillip Dorsett, Colts
Cody Latimer, Broncos

Despite being selected 29th overall just two years ago, Phillip Dorsett appears to be in danger of not earning a Colts roster spot. He’s behind former undrafted free agent Chester Rogers and free agent signee Kamar Aiken on Indianapolis’ depth chart, and new general manager Chris Ballard doesn’t have any allegiance to the former Miami wideout. Eric Galko of the Sporting News (Twitter link) suggested the Jets — who recently lost Quincy Enunwa for the year — could be a fit for Dorsett, while the Bills, 49ers, Panthers, and Browns also make some deal of sense.

Garrett Celek/Vance McDonald, 49ers
Zach Miller, Bears
Richard Rodgers, Packers

The Bears reportedly told rival teams at this year’s scouting combine they’d be open to trading Zach Miller if they drafted a tight end, and draft a tight end they did. Chicago selected Ashland’s Adam Shaheen in the second round, and also signed former Dolphins tight end Dion Sims to a three-year, $18MM deal. An acquiring club would take on $2.5MM by trading for Miller, with $1MM of that total tied to per-game roster bonuses. Given that the Bears like fellow tight end Daniel Brown (who is just 25 years old as opposed to Miller’s 31), they could be motivated to make a deal.

Vance McDonald, meanwhile, is potentially the most obvious trade candidate listed here, as 49ers general manager John Lynch admitted that he dangled McDonald in talks. Previous San Francisco GM Trent Baalke inked McDonald to a five-year, $35MM extension that begins in 2017, and other teams are unlikely to be interested in taking on that contract. And because the 49ers have so many tight ends, Garrett Celek might be available as well, as Jason La Canfora of CBSports.com hinted at Monday.

Unlike McDonald, Richard Rodgers hasn’t been mentioned in any trade rumors, so his inclusion is completely speculative. But the Packers made investments at tight end this offseason, signing both Martellus Bennett and Lance Kendricks to multi-year deals, and with Rodgers entering a contract year, Green Bay could conceivably look to move him. Kendricks is already playing ahead of Rodgers, per Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com, and has never spent time on special teams. The Packers don’t use two tight end sets much (just 12% of plays, 31st in the league), so rostering three offense-only tight ends may not work.

Offensive line

John Greco, Browns
Jason Kelce, Eagles

Offensive linemen are tough to acquire this late in the offseason given that continuity is such a large part of the front five, but trades do happen: Just last week, the Eagles shipped guard Allen Barbre to the Broncos, and he’s already taking starting snaps. Another Philadelphia lineman, center Jason Kelce, has been on the trade block for some time, but the Eagles may not want to make any more offensive line trades after moving Barbre. Kelce has four years remaining on his contract, but an acquiring club wouldn’t be taking on any guarantees. The Ravens, who desperately need help on the interior, should see if Kelce is still available.

Defensive line

Arik Armstead, 49ers
Star Lotulelei, Panthers
Steve McLendon, Jets
Sheldon Richardson, Jets

Any inkling the Panthers may have had to trade Star Lotulelei likely evaporated when fellow defensive tackle Vernon Butler suffered a knee sprain in Carolina’s first preseason contest. Even if Butler only misses a few games, the Panthers aren’t going to erode their defensive line depth by moving Lotulelei. That’s not to say dealing him wouldn’t be the right move for the long haul, though. Given that Carolina has already locked up Kawann Short to an extension, it will be hard-pressed to keep Lotulelei when his contract expires next spring.

Call it rebuilding, call it tanking — the Jets are not trying to win in 2017. Therefore, it makes so sense for Gang Green to keep defenders like Steve McLendon or Sheldon Richardson on the roster, especially if there’s a market for either player. General manager Mike Maccagnan‘s goal of acquiring some sort of substantial draft pick compensation is a fool’s errand, as no club is going to sacrifice a high pick for a mercurial pass rusher with effort and contract questions.

Either of McLendon or Richardson should be of interest to the Saints, who are still figuring out how to replace Nick Fairley. Other teams with needs along the defensive line include the Dolphins, Colts, Broncos, Raiders, Lions, and Packers, the latter of whom has recently lost Letroy Guion (release) and Montravius Adams (short-term injury).

Edge defender

Jeremiah Attaochu, Chargers
Adrian Clayborn/Brooks Reed/Derrick Shelby, Falcons
Kony Ealy, Patriots
Aaron Lynch, 49ers

Hat tip to Justis Mosqueda of Setting the Edge (Twitter link) for tossing out both Jeremiah Attaochu and Aaron Lynch as possible trade targets for the Lions, who on Sunday lost one of their best edge rushers in Kerry Hyder. Attaochu left the Chargers’ preseason game with a hamstring yesterday, so he may no longer be an option, but Lynch is an intriguing fit for Detroit. Still only 24 years old, Lynch managed 34.5 quarterback hurries as recently as 2015, per the 2017 Football Outsiders Almanac, but has since dealt with injuries and a suspension.

Listing all three of Adrian Clayborn, Brooks Reed, and Derrick Shelby is admittedly cheating, but the Falcons might have too many edge rushers. Depth is never a bad thing, to be sure, but Atlanta probably isn’t going to keep more than nine defensive linemen. Undrafted rookie J’Terius Jones has posted a solid showing during camp, according to Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com, and could make the final squad, meaning a veteran would likely get pushed out.

Kony Ealy posted the best game of his career in Super Bowl 50 as a member of the Panthers, but the former second-round pick has quietly been a disappointment during his three-year career. He’s managed only 14 total sacks, and performed terribly against the run in 2016, something Patriots head coach Bill Belichick won’t abide. New England essentially acquired Ealy for free, as it only moved down eight spots in the draft to pick up the 25-year-old. Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reported last week that Ealy is in a “legitimate fight” to earn a Patriots roster spot.

Linebacker

Stephone Anthony, Saints
Mychal Kendricks, Eagles
Reggie Ragland, Bills

Stephone Anthony and Mychal Kendricks have been visibly on the trade block for some time, but Reggie Ragland could conceivably be dealt out of Buffalo before he ever plays an NFL down. The Bills aren’t quite going full Jets just yet, but they’re clearly planning for the future, as they traded Sammy Watkins and Ronald Darby last week in exchange for lesser players and (more importantly) 2018 draft picks. Ragland, who was chosen in the second round a year ago and missed his entire rookie season with injury, is playing behind both Preston Brown and Gerald Hodges, and may not have a place in new head coach Sean McDermott‘s scheme.

Defensive back

Delvin Breaux, Saints
Kyle Fuller, Bears
Joe Haden, Browns
Trumaine Johnson, Rams
Kenny Vaccaro, Saints

Delvin Breaux admittedly wouldn’t have been on this list before a report indicating that the Saints are in fact shopping him, and while New Orleans has a bit more cornerback depth after selecting Marshon Lattimore in the first round, it doesn’t make much sense to trade Breaux when his value is at its lowest following an injury-plagued 2016 campaign. Vaccaro, on the other hand, is coming off his third excellent season in four years and has only one year left on his deal. If the Saints don’t reach an extension with him before the season, they could explore trading Vaccaro, especially after using second-round picks on Vonn Bell and Marcus Williams in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

The Rams have been discussing a Trumaine Johnson trade ever since placing the franchise tag on him in March, but despite reported interest from the Browns, Saints, and Steelers, no deal has been made. Johnson is now the league’s highest-paid corner after being franchised for two consecutive seasons, and Los Angeles doesn’t appear likely to retain him beyond 2017. Still, the Rams might be reticent to trade Johnson after dealing fellow corner E.J. Gaines to the Bills last week.

Kyle Fuller missed all of last season with a knee injury, and the Bears are counting on him for next season (or thereafter). Chicago signed free agents Prince Amukamara and Marcus Cooper this offseason, and subsequently declined Fuller’s 2018 fifth-year option. A rival club could be willing to take a chance on his draft pedigree, but his recent injury history could scare teams off.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Offseason In Review: Atlanta Falcons

By Dallas Robinson | at August 14, 2017 9:29 pm

The Falcons suffered the most heartbreaking loss in Super Bowl history earlier this year, blowing a 28-3 lead to the Patriots after storming through the NFC bracket. Clearly, that defeat will stick with Atlanta and its fans for some time, but that shouldn’t take away from the excellent 2016 season the club posted. With most of a high-scoring offense (except for offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan) and a young, exciting defense returning, the Falcons’ offseason figured to be relatively quiet.

Notable signings:

Dontari Poe, DT: One year, $8MM. $7.5MM guaranteed.
Levine Toilolo, TE: Three years, $12MM. $4.5MM guaranteed.
Jack Crawford, DE: Three years, $9.9MM. $3MM guaranteed.
Matt Schaub, QB: Two years, $9MM. $2.5MM guaranteed.
Kemal Ishmael, S: One year, $2MM. $1MM guaranteed.
Andre Roberts, WR: One year, $1.8MM. $750K guaranteed. $500K available via incentives.
LaRoy Reynolds, LB: One year, $1.3MM. $250K guaranteed.
Courtney Upshaw, DL: One year, $1.15MM. $150K guaranteed. $200K available via incentives.
Taylor Gabriel, WR: One year, $2.746MM. Signed second-round RFA tender.
Derrick Coleman, FB: One year, $690K.
Blidi Wreh-Wilson, CB: One year, minimum salary benefit.

Boasting one of the more complete rosters in the NFL, the Falcons didn’t have many areas of weakness to be addressed during the free agent period. Ameliorating their run defense was one such focal point, however, as Atlanta ranked 28th in DVOA against the run. In a market where Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams received more than $20MM in full guarantees on multi-year contracts, the Falcons declined to overpay and landed Dontari Poe on a one-year, $8MM deal.

Poe certainly has his positive attributes: he’s young (26), durable (just two career missed games), athletic despite his 6’3″, 250-pound stature, and can rush the passer from the interior. But it’s unclear just how helpful Poe will be at stopping the run. Among 115 qualified interior defenders, Poe graded 87th in run defense, according to Pro Football Focus. The Chiefs, Poe’s former employer, ranked 30th in total adjusted line yards last season and dead last in yards middle of their defensive line. That’s not to place all the blame at Poe’s feet, but he played the most snaps of any Kansas City defensive lineman in 2016.

While the Poe signing was certainly defensible, Atlanta’s addition of former Cowboys defensive end Jack Crawford made little sense, at least at the required price. While he did an admirable job guiding Clarice Starling in her encounters with Hannibal Lecter, Crawford doesn’t provide much that the Falcons defensive line didn’t already have. He’s a remarkably similar player to incumbent options Adrian Clayborn and Courtney Upshaw, the latter of whom also re-signed with Atlanta this offseason. Crawford isn’t as talented as either of those players, however, and at a cost of $3.3MM annually, he’s earning a similar salary to that of Erik Walden, Connor Barwin, and Julius Peppers, all of whom I’d take over Crawford.

The Falcons didn’t need to add much to an offense that ranked first in DVOA last year, but they did bring back two key insurance pieces: quarterback Matt Schaub and tight end Levine Toilolo. Now in his second stint as a backup in Atlanta, Schaub attempted only three passes in relief of Matt Ryan. While he’s a capable reserve, there’s little question the Falcons’ season would go down in flames if Schaub is forced to step in for Ryan for any serious length of time. Toilolo, meanwhile, is the perfect No. 2 tight end, as he’s a willing blocker who also plays on special teams. In 2016, Toilolo played 55% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps while rookie Austin Hooper saw roughly 40% playtime. Expect those percentages to flip next season.

The only external additions made by the Falcons — wide receiver Andre Roberts and fullback Derrick Coleman — should slot in as replacements for two departed Atlanta free agents, Eric Weems and Patrick DiMarco. Roberts will likely become the primary return man for the Falcons in 2017, although his roster spot isn’t a given just yet, per Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com. Entering his eighth NFL campaign, Roberts handled 33 kickoffs and 20 punt returns for Detroit last season. Coleman, 26, was out of of the NFL in 2016 following an alleged hit-and-run, but he should see ample playing time next season, as DiMarco played the second-most offensive snaps of any fullback in the league a season ago.

Notable losses:

As Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap explained in an excellent offseason study, the Falcons are returning the majority of the players who contributed to their Super Bowl run, as they finished 29th in the NFL in terms of percentage of snaps lost. Additionally, Atlanta finished dead last with only 3.8% quality snaps lost, which factors in the amount of departed players who went on to sign with other clubs. The entire piece is well-worth a full read, but the main takeaway is that the Falcons didn’t lose a ton from the corps that led them to an NFC Championship title.

Veteran guard Chris Chester was the only Falcons player on either side of the ball that played more than 50% of his unit’s snaps and won’t return in 2017. Chester actually never left the field when Atlanta had the ball, as he played all 1,039 offensive snaps for the Falcons last season. Although he ultimately decided to retire, Chester wasn’t in the Falcons’ 2017 plans, anyway, as the team had no interest in re-signing him. With rookie Sean Harlow still adjusting to life as a guard, Ben Garland and Wes Schweitzer are competing to take over for Chester on the right side.

The rest of the Falcons’ notable losses on the offensive side of the ball were essentially bit players, veterans who played a role but were never a focal point on Atlanta’s offensive game plan. Patrick DiMarco, was one of the league’s most-deployed fullbacks, but he still played on less than a third of the Falcons’ offensive snaps. He was replaced by Derrick Coleman for a fraction of the cost. Tight end Jacob Tamme was Atlanta’s second-leading receiver in 2015, but is still in the midst of a lengthy recovery period following shoulder surgery. And Aldrick Robinson was a serviceable deep ball threat (six catches of 20+ yards), but he’s approaching age-30 and plays the same role as Taylor Gabriel.

Along the defensive line, Atlanta bid one longtime Falcon adieu, but hasn’t made a decision on its other age-35+ defender. Defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux had been the longest-tenured Falcon, as he’d spent the entirety of his 12-year NFL career in Atlanta, starting 133 games during that time. He’s expected to continue his career, but the Falcons made no attempt to re-sign him this spring. On the other hand, Atlanta hasn’t ruled out a reunion with defensive end Dwight Freeney, who only played on 27% of the Falcons’ defensive snaps but still finished with 18 quarterback hurries (39th in the NFL).

Atlanta’s decision to add several young linebackers over the past two seasons meant the club had no use for a trio of veteran ‘backers: Paul Worrilow, Philip Wheeler, and Sean Weatherspoon. Among that group, Wheeler played the most defensive snaps (339) while Worrilow chipped in the most on special teams (253 plays). With Deion Jones, De’Vondre Campbell, and Duke Riley now on board, the Falcons are going with youth at the second level of their defense.

Trades:

Acquired a 2017 first-round pick (No. 25; DE Takkarist McKinley) from the Seahawks in exchange for a 2017 first-round pick (No. 31), a 2017 third-round pick (No. 95; S Delano Hill), and a 2017 seventh-round pick (No. 249; RB Chris Carson).
Acquired a 2017 third-round pick (No. 75; LB Duke Riley), 2017 fifth-round pick (No. 149; CB Damontae Kazee), and a 2017 fifth-round pick (No. 156; RB Brian Hill) from the Bills in exchange for a 2017 second-round pick (No. 63; OL Dion Dawkins).

Draft picks:

1-25: Takkarist McKinley, DE (UCLA)
3-75: Duke Riley, LB (LSU)
4-136: Sean Harlow, OL (Oregon State)
5-149: Damontae Kazee, CB (San Diego State)
5-156: Brian Hill, RB (Wyoming)
5-174: Eric Saubert, TE (Drake)

The Falcons had one of the league’s smallest draft classes, as they were one of only six clubs with fewer than six choices — but they made the picks count, specifically targeting areas of need and focusing in on particular players. On Day 1, Atlanta traded up in to acquire UCLA’s Takkarist McKinley in an attempt to find another edge rusher to pair with Vic Beasley. While Beasley led the league with 15.5 sacks in 2016, he managed only 16 quarterback knockdowns, leading to a 96.9% sack-per-knockdown rate that ranks second-highest over the past five seasons, according to Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com.

With Beasley likely to regress to the mean, the Falcons need more help on the edge, especially given that they rarely blitz. Atlanta will have a new defensive coordinator in 2017, but last year it rushed only four defenders 74.7% of the time, third-most in the NFL, per the 2017 Football Outsiders Almanac. McKinley has a “relatively raw approach and skill set,” says Lance Zierlein of NFL.com, but also boasts an excellent motor. While McKinley’s measurables aren’t all that impressive — he wasn’t a 2017 Force Player and ranked just 30th in SPARQ score among edge rushing prospects — it wouldn’t be surprise if he’s able to rack up sacks during his rookie season as opposing offensive linemen focus on other Atlanta defenders.

Duke Riley is the second LSU linebacker to be drafted by the Falcons in as many years, but he (and his 4.58 speed) will likely spend 2017 on special teams. Atlanta only played three-linebacker packages 19% of the time last season, so unless Riley usurps De’Vondre Campbell to play alongside Deion Jones in base sets, he may not see the field much. Likewise, offensive lineman Sean Harlow hasn’t even been mentioned as a contender for the Falcons’ right guard job, while Damontae Kazee and Brian Hill are buried on the depth chart thanks to Atlanta’s depth at cornerback and running back, respectively.

Extensions and restructures:

Devonta Freeman, RB: Extended through 2022. Five years, $41.25MM. $17.3MM guaranteed.
Desmond Trufant, CB: Extended through 2022. Five years, $68.75MM. $20.776MM guaranteed.
Ryan Schraeder, T: Restructured contract. Created $4.8MM in cap space by converting 2017 $6MM roster bonus into signing bonus.

While the merits of signing running backs to long-term contracts can be debated, Devonta Freeman is exactly the type of back who deserves to be paid if a club decides its going to ink a runner for several seasons. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2015, Freeman leads NFL running backs in approximate value (Pro Football Reference’s catch-all metric), and has reached 1,500 total yards and 13 total touchdowns in both campaigns. He’s now the league’s highest-paid running back on a multi-year deal (trailing only the franchise-tagged Le’Veon Bell), and his extension almost assuredly means fellow back Tevin Coleman will leave Atlanta when his contract expires following the 2018 season.

Freeman wasn’t the only player the Falcons extended through 2022 this offseason, as the club also locked up cornerback Desmond Trufant, making the fifth-year defensive back the NFL’s fifth-highest paid corner on a multi-year pact. Trufant missed the final six games of the regular season plus Atlanta’s postseason run with a pectoral injury, but the Falcons clearly feel that he’ll rebound to full health. Pro Football Focus ranked Truant as the league’s No. 32 cornerback in 2016, the lowest mark of his career.

Atlanta has several more extension candidates on the horizon, including quarterback Matt Ryan and left tackle Jake Matthews, each of whom is signed through 2018. Franchise owner Arthur Blank has indicated a willingness to make Ryan the highest-paid player in the league, which means Ryan could be earning close to $30MM by the time talks wrap up. The Falcons are already tight on 2018 cap space, however, as their ~$9MM ranks sixth from the bottom.

Other:

Hired Steve Sarkisian as offensive coordinator to replace Kyle Shanahan.
Promoted Marquand Manuel to defensive coordinator to replace Richard Smith.
Exercised 2018 fifth-year option for T Jake Matthews ($12.496MM).
Learned CB Jalen Collins would be suspended 10 games (PEDs).
Signed 21 undrafted rookie free agents.

While continuity has defined the Falcons’ offseason from a personnel standpoint, Atlanta is replacing both of its coordinators in 2016. New DC Marquand Manuel was promoted from within, so the club’s defensive strategies may not change all that much, but new OC Steve Sarkisian was hired from the college ranks, as he’ll replace Kyle Shanahan after one season with Alabama. Atlanta has an extremely defined offensive scheme and notable tendencies, such as their repeated use of play-action (27% of offensive plays, first in the NFL). Sarkisian doesn’t need to alter the offense after the Falcons boasted the league’s best offense in 2016, but he’ll certainly add his own ingredients to the mix.

Top 10 cap charges for 2017:

Matt Ryan, QB: $23,750,000
Julio Jones, WR: $13,900,000
Robert Alford, CB: $9,600,000
Alex Mack, C: $9,050,000
Dontari Poe, DT: $8,000,000
Mohamed Sanu, WR: $7,400,000
Andy Levitre, G: $6,625,000
Adrian Clayborn, DE: $5,406,250
Jake Matthews, T: $5,227,568
Brooks Reed, DE: $5,040,000

The NFC South is possibly the NFL’s strongest division, as the Panthers, Saints, and Buccaneers all have legitimate postseason hopes in 2016. The Falcons are defending champions, however, and have as good a chance as any other club in the division to take the crown. While Atlanta’s offense could certainly regress towards the mean, the Falcons’ defense could take a step up under Dan Quinn & Co. Double-digit wins and a division title should be the immediate goal for Atlanta, with a Super Bowl appearance (and a win this time) ranking as the team’s ultimate aspiration.

Information from Over the Cap and Roster Resource was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

1 comment Atlanta Falcons Offseason In Review PFR Originals

PFR Originals: 8/6/17 – 8/13/17

By Dallas Robinson | at August 13, 2017 6:21 pm

The original content and analysis produced by the PFR staff during the past week:

With the 2017 regular season only several weeks away, PFR began its annual Offseason In Review series, assessing the major signings, departures, trades, and other notable events for each of the 32 NFL clubs. We covered two teams this week:
- Green Bay Packers
- Oakland Raiders
A recent report indicated the Bengals rejected a second-round pick for backup quarterback A.J. McCarron this offseason, so I attempted to figure out which clubs may have been involved in such talks with Cincinnati. I tossed out options such the Jets, Broncos, 49ers, and Browns, the latter of whom is the most likely contender for the mystery McCarron suitor, per a PFR reader poll at the end of the piece.

1 comment PFR Originals

Let’s Figure Out Who Offered A Second-Rounder For A.J. McCarron

By Dallas Robinson | at August 11, 2017 9:59 pm

An unidentified team reportedly offered the Bengals a second-round pick for backup quarterback A.J. McCarron this offseason, as Albert Breer of TheMMQB.com reported earlier this week. Cincinnati rejected the offer, as it apparently wants a first-rounder for McCarron, who will once again act as a reserve behind starter Andy Dalton in 2017.

McCarron, 26, doesn’t have much NFL experience, as he’s only made four total starts (all following a 2015 Dalton injury) during his three-year career. Although he posted a decent showing in those appearances, tossing seven touchdowns against two interceptions, the former fifth-round pick’s track record is admittedly limited. McCarron’s contract situation is also up in the air: while the Bengals reportedly believe he’ll be a restricted free agent in 2018 because he spent his rookie season on the non-football injury list, McCarron and his agent may have a different take. An arbitrator hearing and resolution likely won’t come until next season.

With those caveats in mind, let’s look at the possible candidates for who offered a second-round pick for McCarron:

Arizona Cardinals

Let’s start off this exercise with the one true wild card on this list, as the Cardinals already have their starting quarterback in another former Bengal, 37-year-old Carson Palmer. Given that Palmer hinted at retirement all offseason, it’s entirely feasible 2017 will be his final NFL season, and Arizona hasn’t established a plan for the future. Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbert aren’t realistic options to take over under center if Palmer does hang up his cleats after the upcoming campaign, so it’s possible the Cardinals would have floated a Day 2 selection in order to land a long-term successor like McCarron. General manager Steve Keim hasn’t been afraid to trade draft picks in the past, although his other significant deal — sending a second-rounder to the Patriots for edge rusher Chandler Jones — was a win-now move. McCarron’s 2014 NFL.com draft profile noted his lack of a “big-time, vertical arm,” which would theoretically present a problem in a Bruce Arians offense.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills hemmed and hawed on whether to retain incumbent signal-caller Tyrod Taylor, and though it appeared as though he’d hit free agency, Taylor ultimately agreed to a short-term pact that will keep him Buffalo through the 2018 season. While McCarron would seemingly fit in new play-caller Rick Dennison‘s offense, the timeline of the Bills’ front office turnover makes it unlikely they were involved in McCarron trade discussions. Buffalo reached a new deal with Taylor just prior to the start of the 2017 league year in early March, and former general manager Doug Whaley was fired two months later. Targeting another quarterback just after working out a fresh pact with Taylor seems improbable, and Buffalo’s ownership wouldn’t have let a lame duck like Whaley make such a franchise-altering decision.

Chicago Bears

While the Bears were never linked to McCarron, they were interested in trading for another high-profile backup quarterback — the Patriots’ Jimmy Garoppolo. Rival clubs didn’t believe Chicago would be forced to part with its No. 3 overall pick in order to land Garoppolo, as a package of multiple second-round selections was thought to be enough to get a deal done. Clearly, that view was misguided in regards to Garoppolo’s availability, but the Bears were obviously willing to ship away draft choices in order to bring in a passer. Ultimately, Chicago not only signed free agent Mike Glennon, but sent a bevy of picks to the 49ers in order to move up one spot in the first round for UNC’s Mitch Trubisky. Sending a second-rounder to Cincinnati for McCarron, then, wouldn’t have been out of the question.

Cleveland Browns

The one club known to have held McCarron trade talks with the Bengals is the Browns, who were reportedly discussing McCarron as late as the first day of the draft in April. However, negotiations between Cincinnati and Cleveland apparently didn’t get very far, as the Bengals were had assigned a high price tag to its backup quarterback. Based on familiarity alone, the Browns were an excellent fit for McCarron, as Cleveland head coach Hue Jackson was the Bengals’ offensive coordinator when McCarron entered the league in 2014. The Bengals didn’t seem to have any qualms about dealing McCarron to a division rival, and Cleveland seems like an obvious contender for the mystery team that offered Cincinnati a second-round pick, especially given that it owned two of them heading into the draft.

Denver Broncos

An armchair psychologist might say general manager John Elway‘s insistence that the Broncos are not currently trying to trade for McCarron (“150% false) is a bit on the defensive side, but even if Denver isn’t looking into McCarron at the moment, that doesn’t mean the club wasn’t interested in him earlier this year. Yes, the Broncos used a first-round pick on Paxton Lynch just a year ago, but reports on him and fellow quarterback Trevor Siemian haven’t been positive. Plus, Denver was linked to at least one signal-caller upgrade — veteran Tony Romo — this offseason, meaning the Broncos were willing to put Lynch and Siemian on the bench if a better option was discovered.

Houston Texans

One of the three clubs on this list that ultimately traded up to select a quarterback in the first round of the draft, the Texans are now set for the future with Clemson’s Deshaun Watson under center. But would they have been willing to ship a relatively early pick to the Bengals for McCarron before acquiring Watson? Possibly, although the fact that McCarron would likely need to be extended relatively quickly may have presented a problem. The Texans are staring at long-term deals for wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, so cap space could quickly get tight. And after general manager Rick Smith whiffed on Brock Osweiler in 2016, Texans ownership may not have given approval for the front office to spend both draft pick capital and more cash on another unproven quarterback.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs actually selected another quarterback — Georgia’s Aaron Murray — one pick before McCarron came off the board to Cincinnati in the fifth round of the 2014 draft. But McCarron doesn’t look like a perfect fit for Kansas City, and like Houston, cap space problems would have likely come into play. The Chiefs are currently projected to be nearly $5MM over the cap in 2018, so extending or franchising McCarron would have possibly been untenable. As such, Kansas City needed the benefits of a rookie quarterback contract, and instead opted to trade up to acquire Patrick Mahomes out of Texas Tech.

New York Jets

Writing in early March, Rich Cimini of ESPN.com suggested the Jets may have looked into a possible Sheldon Richardson-for-McCarron trade, noting his belief that Cincinnati would have had to insert a draft pick to get a deal done. I completely disagree on that last point, as a quarterback — even a reserve — has more value than a unproductive edge rusher/defensive tackle (plus, Richardson is scheduled to earn nearly $8MM more than McCarron in 2017), the idea of Gang Green trading for McCarron wasn’t completely out of the question. New York isn’t trying to win during the upcoming season, however, and will limp through the campaign with Josh McCown, Bryce Petty, and Christian Hackenberg before presumably finding a quarterback in next year’s draft.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are one of the more interesting clubs on this list, as new head coach Kyle Shanahan should be allowed to essentially handpick his quarterback of the future at this point. San Francisco signed free agents Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley, and drafted Iowa’s C.J. Beathard in the third round, but any talks regarding McCarron likely would have occurred before the 49ers made those moves. Still, the idea that San Francisco would have offered a second-round pick for McCarron seems unlikely for a few reasons. First, the Niners’ second-rounder was No. 34 overall, an extremely valuable draft choice, and second, San Francisco is probably holding off on adding a long-term quarterback until the 2018 free agent status of Kirk Cousins — Shanahan’s former pupil — is resolved.

What do you think? Did one of these clubs offer a second-round pick for McCarron? Or was it another unidentified team? Weigh in here:

Which team offered a second-round pick for A.J. McCarron?

Cleveland Browns 25.31% (750 votes)

New York Jets 17.85% (529 votes)

Denver Broncos 12.99% (385 votes)

San Francisco 49ers 12.42% (368 votes)

Arizona Cardinals 8.64% (256 votes)

Other 6.99% (207 votes)

Buffalo Bills 5.13% (152 votes)

Houston Texans 4.96% (147 votes)

Chicago Bears 4.45% (132 votes)

Kansas City Chiefs 1.25% (37 votes)

Total Votes: 2,963

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