With the Saints making their post-Super Bowl Kellen Moore hire official, the NFL’s 2025 HC carousel has stopped. Nearly a fourth of the league has now changed coaches. Who fared the best with their hire?
Starting in Chicago makes sense, as the Bears convinced picky candidate Ben Johnson to sign on. Johnson was squarely on the Jaguars and Raiders’ radars, to the point it is safe to assume the three-year Lions OC was the favorite for both AFC teams. Johnson expressed concern about the Jaguars’ then-Trent Baalke-centered front office setup, and the Raiders could not entice the highly valued play-caller with a rumored big offer.
The Bears are believed to be giving Johnson a $13MM-per-year deal — more than twice Matt Eberflus‘ salary — to develop Caleb Williams after an uneven rookie season. After Johnson played the lead role in reviving Jared Goff‘s career and turning the Lions’ offense into a dominant attack, this is the most anticipated Bears hire in decades. Johnson will work with holdover GM Ryan Poles, who is expected to receive an extension, and team president Kevin Warren.
As this marks a third straight instance of the Bears drafting a first-round quarterback then firing their HC one season into that player’s career, the Patriots are in the same boat. They jettisoned Jerod Mayo one year into Drake Maye‘s career, capping a tough year for Robert Kraft, who passed on a head coaching search in 2024 due to having identified Mayo as Bill Belichick‘s long-term successor years ago. Kraft’s initial plan was for Belichick to coach through the 2024 season, giving Mayo more on-the-job training. But the Pats’ 4-13 2023 record scuttled that aim. After Belichick’s firing, Mayo did not prove ready — in the eyes of Kraft and most other observers.
Enter Mike Vrabel, who will make his return to Foxborough 16 years after being included in the Matt Cassel tag-and-trade transaction. The 2021 NFL Coach of the Year made sense as an option in 2024, when the Pats had a vacancy, but the team had inserted language in Mayo’s contract naming him the HC-in-waiting. New England has Vrabel set up to have the final say moving forward, though both he and de facto GM Eliot Wolf will report to Kraft. Vrabel was viewed as having overachieved in Tennessee, leading the Titans to their first AFC championship game since 2002 and following that up with two more playoff berths — including a No. 1 seed in 2021.
The Jaguars enjoyed a much more complicated route to complete its HC hire. After favorite Liam Coen initially rejected a second interview, Shad Khan fired Baalke — who was again viewed as a hindrance in a coaching search — and conducted stealth negotiations with Coen to reconsider. He ultimately did, and despite the one-and-done Buccaneers OC not having worked for the same team in back-to-back years since a three-season Rams tenure that ended in 2020, he is believed to be tied to a Johnson-level contract and will effectively pick the next Jaguars GM.
This is quite the coup for Coen, after he helped Baker Mayfield to a 41-touchdown pass season, and the exit — after Coen had agreed on a Bucs extension — certainly ruffled feathers in Tampa. But the Jags were desperate for an offense-minded coach to boost Trevor Lawrence, whom the team gave a $55MM-per-year extension ahead of a 4-13 season.
The Raiders pivoted to Pete Carroll, who is set to become the oldest HC in NFL history. Carroll, who will turn 74 in September, profiles as a short-term option. The Raiders gave the former Seahawks Super Bowl-winning leader a three-year deal, which is shorter than the typical HC contract. Carroll will work with powerful minority owner Tom Brady in aiming to turn the Raiders around. The Raiders have gone through four HCs and four GMs (John Spytek the latest) this decade, and they will hope Carroll can calm things down. Carroll was linked to conducting his interviews with a potential successor in mind. The team, however, hired 61-year-old OC Chip Kelly and kept Josh McDaniels‘ DC choice (Patrick Graham); this points to Carroll’s successor not yet being with the team.
Like Vrabel, Aaron Glenn is returning to the team with which his playing career is best identified. The former Jets first-round CB is being given more power than Robert Saleh held, being set to report to ownership. Woody Johnson went so far as to label GM Darren Mougey as Glenn’s sidekick, illustrating both a tremendous opportunity for Glenn and the state of a Jets organization that had trouble attracting candidates (Vrabel and Johnson among them) after a turbulent year.
Glenn, who comes over after elevating the Lions into a top-10 defense despite Aidan Hutchinson‘s injury, is already making his voice heard. Aaron Rodgers is not expected back, with Glenn and Mougey believed to have pressed the QB on ditching his Pat McAfee Show segments in an effort to focus on football. After two years of the Jets catering to Rodgers, they are in the hunt for a new passer — one Glenn will have a significant say in identifying.
Prior to his Cowboys meetings, Brian Schottenheimer had not conducted a head coaching interview since PFR launched in 2014. The second-generation NFL coach has made the stunning leap from off-radar candidate, who had been Mike McCarthy‘s non-play-calling OC, to Jerry Jones‘ next sideline leader. The Cowboys again conducted a strange HC change, waiting a week to ditch McCarthy — after term length proved a negotiating sticking point — before being tied to Deion Sanders, who never officially interviewed.
Schottenheimer beat out three candidates, as Dallas’ past three HC changes have now featured an interim promotion (Jason Garrett), a two-candidate pool (McCarthy) and now an off-grid option. Schottenheimer has, however, been a four-time NFL OC, dating back to 2006. He was in place for some strong Russell Wilson Seahawks showings, albeit having been fired from that post after three seasons.
The Saints saw McCarthy, Joe Brady and Kliff Kingsbury bow out, as their perennially bad cap situation — one featuring an onerous Derek Carr contract — certainly may have deterred some candidates. But Moore stuck with the team, agreeing to terms despite Super Bowl LIX having raised his stock considerably. The three-time OC will call plays in New Orleans, which will aim to find a post-Carr answer during Moore’s tenure.
Although the new Saints HC’s staff has yet to take shape, Moore will aim to elevate New Orleans after four straight non-playoff seasons. He comes to Louisiana after helming an Eagles offense that peaked at the right time, as the team overpowered the Commanders and Chiefs to claim the championship.
Which teams did the best (and worst) this year? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on the 2025 HC carousel in the comments section.
