Extra Points: Kaepernick, Draft, Flacco
Concern is growing at the scouting combine regarding injured Notre Dame linebacker Jaylon Smith, who is recovering from a torn ACL and MCL he suffered in January. Multiple NFL teams have failed Smith at the physical, while three have already declared they won’t draft him, according to Jeff Legwold and Adam Schefter of ESPN. This comes on the heels of a Friday report stating that Smith might miss all of next season.
Prior to his injury, the expectation was that Smith would be an early first-round pick, but some clubs now believe he’ll be a Day 3 selection, per Tony Pauline of WalterFootball.com. Smith took out an insurance policy on himself last summer, so he’ll collect a tax-free $700k if he doesn’t go in the first round and another $100k with each missed pick thereafter, tweets ESPN’s Darren Rovell. Thanks to his insurance policy, Smith could make as much as $5MM if his draft stock plummets, per Rovell.
And now for some notes on QBs:
- The fact that Colin Kaepernick wants out of San Francisco leaves the 49ers with little to no leverage in trade talks, writes Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee. Potential Kaepernick suitors could now be inclined to wait until a possible release by April 1, when his $12MM salary becomes guaranteed, rather than give anything up for him. If cut, Kaepernick would likely make less per year on his next deal, but his desire to get away from the 49ers outranks his motivation to cash in, per Barrows.
- The Ravens and Joe Flacco‘s agent, Joe Linta, have made “significant progress” in their talks to rework the quarterback’s contract and are expected to have further discussions Sunday, ESPN’s Adam Caplan reports (link via Jamison Hemsley of ESPN.com).
- North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz has been the most impressive signal-caller at the combine, three NFL head coaches told Bleacher Report’s Jason Cole (Twitter link).
Free Agent Rumors: Schwartz, Gipson, Texans, Fleener
The latest free agency rumors from around the NFL:
- There’s a belief at the combine that offensive tackle Mitchell Schwartz will end up with a contract in the $8MM-per-year range, writes Tony Pauline of WalterFootball.com. That would make Schwartz the second-richest right tackle in the league in terms of annual salary. The Eagles’ Lane Johnson ranks first at $11.25MM, though he’s expected to eventually shift to left tackle (normally the more lucrative position). Since the Browns took Schwartz in the second round of the 2012 draft, he has appeared in and started 64 straight games. For his work last season, the 26-year-old ranked sixth out of 77 qualifying tackles by Pro Football Focus’ standards (subscription required).
- Safety Tashaun Gipson, who has also been with the Browns since 2012, will garner plenty of interest on the market and should cash in, according to Pauline. Gipson has amassed 14 interceptions during his four seasons, including league-leading totals in both 2013 and ’14, and gone to one Pro Bowl. As of earlier this week, Browns executive vice president of football operations Sashi Brown was hoping to lock up Gipson.
- The Texans have two important offensive linemen scheduled for free agency in center Ben Jones and guard Brandon Brooks, and they’re trying to re-sign both, reports Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle. The team has met with both players’ agents at the combine, per Wilson. Jones has logged 16 starts in back-to-back years, while Brooks has combined for 44 over the last three seasons.
- The Colts aren’t in any rush to re-sign tight end Coby Fleener, per Pauline. Fleener is coming off his third straight 50-reception season, but his yards per catch dropped precipitously compared to 2014 (15.2 to 9.1), as did his touchdown total (eight to three).
AFC East Rumors: Bills, Dolphins, Jets
Three of the AFC East’s four teams are in the news. Here’s the latest:
- As free agency approaches, the Bills are working to retain their two best offensive linemen – left tackle Cordy Glenn and left guard Richie Incognito – writes CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora. We learned this afternoon that the Bills intend to place the franchise tag on Glenn if he hasn’t agreed to a long-term deal by the March 1 deadline. Contrary to a report from earlier this week, the Bills aren’t currently looking to extend contract-year quarterback Tyrod Taylor, per La Canfora, who adds that they’re instead focusing on locking up cornerback Stephon Gilmore. Moreover, they’ll release defensive end Mario Williams and running back Anthony Dixon, and could restructure the contracts of safety Corey Graham, corner Leodis McKelvin, and possibly defensive lineman Kyle Williams. With some of the cap space those moves would create, La Canfora expects the Bills to pursue free agent-to-be Bilal Powell. The 27-year-old running back played under Bills head coach Rex Ryan as a member of the Jets from 2011-14. Powell averaged a career-high 4.5 yards per carry on 70 attempts last season and added a personal-best 47 receptions.
- The Dolphins want to rework the contract of defensive end Cameron Wake, according to La Canfora. The problem, he notes, is that Wake would likely match or exceed the $8.4MM he’s scheduled to make as a Dolphin next season if they release him and he reaches the open market. Thus, the 34-year-old lacks incentive to take a pay cut. Not surprisingly, then, talks between the Dolphins and Wake’s agent made no progress at the combine.
- With two ex-Jets bigwigs in Buffalo (Ryan) and Miami (executive vice president of football operations Mike Tannenbaum), representatives of pending Jets free agents said at the combine that the Bills and Dolphins could be landing spots for their clients, according to Brian Costello of the New York Post. That seems to corroborate La Canfora’s report that the Bills will try to reel in Powell in free agency. Further, the Bills and Dolphins could go after Jets run-stuffing defensive tackle Damon Harrison if he hits the market, per Costello, though he notes that the teams’ lack of cap space might serve as roadblocks. Even so, Harrison could use those clubs as leverage to scare the Jets into meeting his demands.
Latest On Brock Osweiler
Broncos general manager John Elway said Thursday afternoon that pending free agent quarterback Brock Osweiler isn’t a candidate for the franchise tag. He also doesn’t seem like a candidate to receive a mega-contract – not from the Broncos, anyway.
“When you look at where the salaries are on quarterbacks, either above $15 million or below $5 [million]. There’s no middle class of quarterbacks. So that’s where you hope you could get a fair deal with Brock’s people and his representatives,” Elway told Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk.
Elway believes Osweiler will put himself in position to hit the jackpot in the future if he re-signs with the Broncos at a reasonable rate this 
year.
“I think we do have a system that fits Brock very well,” he said. “So for Brock to have continued success, I don’t think will be, this won’t be his big contract, but this will be a contract where he’ll be able to make very good money and be able to prove himself that could lead to that next big contract.”
It’s fair to say Osweiler hasn’t shown enough on the field to warrant top-caliber money, but he’s young (25), was once a relatively high draft pick (a second-rounder in 2012), and possesses elite size (6-foot-8, 240 pounds). With all of that considered, Osweiler could exceed expectations on his next contract if he hits the free agent market March 9 and finds a QB-needy team willing to overpay for a slightly seasoned commodity.
While Osweiler showed hints last season of becoming the long-term solution under center for Denver, his numbers over eight games – 61 percent completion rate, 7.15 yards per attempt, 10 TDs, six picks – were unremarkable. Further, he wasn’t part of the Broncos’ playoff run after a knee injury knocked him out of action in Week 17. Peyton Manning, whose foot injury originally opened the door for Osweiler in November, took the reins back and never gave them up. Manning served in a game manager role throughout the postseason as the Broncos’ defense steamrolled its way to a Super Bowl title.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Extra Points: Saints, Carroll, Kaep, Texans
Saints head coach Sean Payton told NFL Network on Thursday that a contract extension for quarterback Drew Brees “will get done very easily,” per Christopher Dabe of NOLA.com. General manager Mickey Loomis said earlier this month that he wants to lock up Brees, whose deal expires after next season. Loomis also stated at the time that he and Tom Condon, Brees’ agent, hadn’t yet spoken about an extension. That changed at the combine, where Loomis and Condon met, according to Payton.
In a different interview, Payton told Pro Football Talk that offensive guard and the defensive front seven will be the Saints’ main concerns in free agency and the draft (Twitter link via Dabe). Earlier this month, the Saints cut guard Jahri Evans and two front seven defenders, linebackers David Hawthorne and Ramon Humber.
Other news from around the NFL:
- Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll told the Los Angeles Times’ Gary Klein that he has no interest in returning to USC to become its athletic director (Twitter link). Carroll, of course, led USC to an 83-19 mark as its football coach from 2001-09.
- Colin Kaepernick‘s contract – a middle-of-the-road deal for a quarterback – shouldn’t scare off possible suitors, writes Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap. If the 49ers do trade Kaepernick, which looks like a distinct possibility, Fitzgerald lists six teams as potential fits. He expects the Niners to seek a second-round pick in return.
- The Texans have met with guard Brandon Brooks‘ representatives at the combine, tweets Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle. Brooks, a pending free agent, has started in each of his last 44 appearances.
- The Falcons have not yet made any decisions regarding Devin Hester‘s status with the team, according to GM Thomas Dimitroff, who says that won’t happen until after Hester is fully recovered from his toe surgery (Twitter link via Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com).
- The Saints ($42K), Broncos ($267K) and Rams ($1.245MM) opted against carrying over their full allotment of space from 2015, tweets Pro Football Talk. The Broncos’ motivation was to prevent other playoff teams from signing their practice squad players during the postseason, according to PFT’s Mike Florio. Each team has to make its call on carryover space at the end of the regular season. The Saints and Rams didn’t make the playoffs, so it’s currently unclear why they left their respective amounts behind. The list of all 32 clubs’ carryover totals can be found here.
Zach Links contributed to this post.
Latest On Johnny Manziel
7:06pm: Dallas police didn’t arrest Manziel because they may not have had the necessary evidence to do so. Therefore, Crowley might have to testify before the grand jury, Cabot writes. As of now, there are multiple issues with the case, per Cabot: 1. Police weren’t able to question Manziel on the night of the incident because they couldn’t find him. 2. Crowley waited a week to file her complaint with police (she first secured a protective order).
4:25pm: The Dallas Police Department issued an update Thursday regarding its domestic violence case against Browns quarterback Johnny Manziel (link via Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com).
“The investigation of the domestic violence assault involving Jonathan Manziel, which occurred on January 30, 2016, has been completed. Today, a Class A misdemeanor Assault/Domestic Violence case has been referred to the Dallas County District Attorney’s office for presentation to the grand jury.”
Dallas police added that they “will not release any details of the investigation while it is pending grand jury presentation.”
The grand jury will consider a misdemeanor assault charge, according to ESPN’s Michele Steele, who notes that offense is punishable for up to a year in jail and/or a fine (Twitter link).
Manziel’s ex-girlfriend, Colleen Crowley, filed a complaint alleging that he assaulted her and ruptured her eardrum during their Jan. 30 altercation. Crowley also stated in an affidavit that she told a valet at the Hotel ZaZa in Dallas that she was scared for her life, and that Manziel subsequently threw her in the passenger seat of his car. The Dallas PD has the video of Crowley’s encounter with the valet along with other surveillance, Pat McManamon of ESPN.com reported last Saturday.
Regardless of what happens with this case, Manziel’s tenure in Cleveland is on the verge of ending. The team will release him March 9, per Cabot.
Bills Restructure Charles Clay’s Contract
Less than 12 months after signing Charles Clay to a five-year, $38MM contract, the Bills have restructured the tight end’s deal, according to Tyler Dunne of The Buffalo News (Twitter link). They’ve converted Clay’s $10MM roster bonus into a signing bonus as a way to create cap space, Adam Caplan ESPN.com reports (Twitter link). By going that route, the team has opened up $7.5MM of breathing room, Dunne tweets. The downside, as Joe Buscaglia of WKBW writes, is that Clay’s cap hit from 2017-19 
will now rise from $6.5MM to $9MM.
Prior to the restructuring of his deal, Clay was scheduled to count $13.5MM against the Bills’ cap next season. That’s an unpalatable total for a non-elite player, especially one who’s on a team with a less-than-ideal cap situation. The Bills entered Thursday with the least amount of spending space of any team in the NFL ($209,715), per Over the Cap, though the league has since awarded them upward of $4MM in carryover money from 2015.
In his first season with the Bills, knee and back injuries limited Clay to 13 games. The 27-year-old was fairly productive, though, catching 51 passes for 528 yards and three touchdowns. Most of Clay’s receptions came courtesy of quarterback Tyrod Taylor, whom the Bills could look to extend, we learned earlier this evening.
Broncos Rumors: QBs, Trevathan, Clady, RBs, Davis
Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning is still undecided about whether to retire or return for his age-40 season, general manager John Elway said at the combine on Thursday (Twitter link via Nicki Jhabvala of The Denver Post).
“He still needs more time, so we’re going to afford him that time,” said Elway, who met with Manning a couple nights ago, per Jhabvala.
Elway and Manning will meet again in a week or two, Lindsay Jones of USA Today tweets.
“The ball is in his court,” Elway said.
Elway also touched on some of the Super Bowl champions’ other key issues Thursday. Let’s dive in…
- The Broncos will not place the franchise tag on Manning’s potential successor, Brock Osweiler, according to Elway (Twitter link Jones). They would like to lock him up to a new deal, though. “We’re really not in a hurry. Brock knows what we have to offer and we still have a great deal of interest in Brock,” Elway stated (Twitter link via Jhabvala).
- Linebacker Danny Trevathan will “probably have to test the market,” Elway said (per Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com). Denver doesn’t seem likely to retain Trevathan, who is in position to cash in after accruing 109 tackles, two picks and ranking as Pro Football Focus’ 10th-best linebacker last season.
- Elway has spent most of his draft prep focusing on the offensive line, he said (Twitter link via Jones). He’ll also meet with offensive tackle Ryan Clady‘s agent on Friday to discuss restructuring his contract, reports Troy Renck of the Denver Post (on Twitter). Clady indicated earlier this winter that he’s open to reworking his deal to stay a Bronco. Injuries have plagued the four-time Pro Bowler, who missed all of last season with a torn ACL and has sat out 30 of Denver’s last 48 regular-season games. Clady, 29, is scheduled for cap charges exceeding $10MM in each of the next two seasons.
- In addition to Clady, the Broncos might also attempt to rework edge rusher DeMarcus Ware‘s contract, Legwold writes. Ware is currently set to count $11.67MM against the Broncos’ cap for his age-34 season.
- Running back will be a position the Broncos look at in free agency and the draft, per Elway, who added that C.J. Anderson “had a good year.” On free agent-to-be Ronnie Hillman, Elway stated, “[W]e’ll see what happens” (Twitter links via Jhabvala).
- The Broncos will allow tight end Vernon Davis, whom they acquired from the 49ers last fall, to test the free agent market, according to Elway. “But that’s not to say we don’t want him back,” he added (Twitter link via Renck).
Chiefs Rumors: Charles, Berry, Johnson, Daniel, Branch
The torn ACL that ended star running back Jamaal Charles‘ season last October won’t bring about the conclusion of his Chiefs career, general manager John Dorsey said at the combine Thursday. The Chiefs will not release the five-time thousand-yard rusher, according to Dorsey, who added that Charles is progressing well in his recovery (link via Adam Teicher of ESPN.com).
In addition to Charles’ situation, Dorsey addressed the statuses of a few of the Chiefs’ pending free agents. Here’s the latest:
- Dorsey says he’ll meet with safety Eric Berry‘s agent this weekend (Twitter link via Terez A. Paylor of The Kansas City Star). As of earlier this week, not much progress had been made in the Chiefs’ quest to lock up Berry. If the two sides fail to reach a deal this month, the Chiefs are expected to place the franchise tag on the four-time Pro Bowler by the March 1 deadline.
- Dorsey confirmed that he recently talked to the agent for linebacker Derrick Johnson, per BJ Kissel of the Chiefs’ website (Twitter link). Johnson, who has been with the Chiefs since they drafted him 15th overall in 2005, is coming off his sixth career 16-start season. He totaled 116 tackles, four sacks, two interceptions, two forced fumbles, and ranked eighth out of 97 qualifying linebackers at Pro Football Focus (subscription required). If the Chiefs strike a deal with Berry before the franchise tag deadline, Johnson could become a candidate for it, Josh Alper of Pro Football Talk writes.
- Backup quarterback Chase Daniel has sat behind starter Alex Smith for the last three years, and now Daniel could be in line for a No. 1 job elsewhere. If another team is willing to pay Daniel like a starter, the Chiefs won’t be able to keep him, according to Dorsey – who says he has spoken with Daniel’s agent. Dorsey added that he thinks the Chiefs’ No. 2 QB is already on their roster (Twitter links via Paylor). They currently have Aaron Murray and Tyler Bray under contract.
- The Chiefs are interested in retaining safety Tyvon Branch, a source tells Paylor (Twitter link). Branch, whom the Chiefs signed to a one-year deal last winter, appeared in all 16 of their games last season and started one. The 29-year-old added 43 tackles, one interception, a forced fumble, and four passes defensed.
Offseason Outlook: Buffalo Bills
Pending free agents:
- Nigel Bradham, LB
- Ron Brooks, CB
- Corbin Bryant, DT (RFA)
- Alex Carrington, DL
- Stefan Charles, DT (RFA)
- Cordy Glenn, T
- MarQueis Gray, TE (RFA)
- Leonard Hankerson, WR
- Percy Harvin, WR
- Chris Hogan, WR (RFA)
- Richie Incognito, G
- Josh Johnson, QB
- Jordan Mills, T (RFA)
- Ty Powell, LB (RFA)
- Bacarri Rambo, S (RFA)
- Cierre Wood, RB (ERFA)
Top 15 cap hits for 2016:
- Mario Williams, DE: $19,900,000
- Marcell Dareus, DT: $14,550,000
- Charles Clay, TE: $13,500,000
- Stephon Gilmore, CB: $11,082,000
- Kyle Williams, DT: $8,000,000
- LeSean McCoy, RB: $7,675,000
- Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB: $7,575,000
- Eric Wood, C: $6,725,000
- Aaron Williams, S: $6,100,000
- Sammy Watkins, WR: $5,436,983
- Corey Graham, CB: $5,375,000
- Leodis McKelvin, CB: $4,900,000
- Manny Lawson, LB: $3,400,000
- Tyrod Taylor, QB: $3,133,333
- Dan Carpenter, K: $2,837,500
Notable coaching/front office moves:
- Defensive staff: Hired former Saints DC Rob Ryan as assistant head coach/defense.
- Defensive staff: Hired former Ravens S Ed Reed as assistant defensive backs coach.
- General manager: Extended Doug Whaley through 2019 season.
Draft:
- No. 19 overall pick
- Owe seventh-round pick to Vikings in deal for QB Matt Cassel.
Other:
- Current projected cap room (via Over the Cap): $210K
- Must exercise or decline fifth-year option for 2017 for QB EJ Manuel.
- RB LeSean McCoy accused of assaulting off-duty police officers.
- Signed WRs Jarrett Boykin, Greg Little.
Overview:
When the Bills hired Rex Ryan as their head coach last winter, he expressed a desire to construct a team capable of beating opponents into submission with a suffocating defense and a dominant running game. He also spoke optimistically about the prospect of the club breaking what was then an NFL-worst streak of 15 straight years without a playoff berth.
Twelve months later, the postseason drought is at 16 years after the Ryan-led Bills finished 8-8, a slight drop from the team’s 9-7 mark in 2014. As for Ryan’s build-a-bully approach, he got half of what he wanted. It just wasn’t the half anyone expected.
The Bills had arguably the top defense in the AFC under ex-coordinator Jim Schwartz in 2014, but Ryan dismissed Schwartz 
after his hiring because of their differing philosophies. Given Ryan’s reputation as a defensive guru, it wasn’t foolish to think the Bills’ defense would continue to thrive – perhaps even improve – with him running it. Instead, the unit took a tremendous step backward under Ryan and coordinator Dennis Thurman, going from top five in points, yards, sacks, and takeaways in 2014 to middle of the pack in most of those categories last season. The starkest decline was in sacks, in which the Bills stunningly reversed course from No. 1 in the league two years ago to second-last with Ryan and Thurman at the controls.
On the other hand, offensive coordinator Greg Roman presided over an attack that accomplished Ryan’s ground-and-pound goal en route to first-place rankings in both rushing yards and per-carry average. Two running backs, LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams, and quarterback Tyrod Taylor – all offseason pickups a year ago – were the main catalysts behind the Bills’ rushing success.
Unfortunately for the Bills, McCoy’s status for next season isn’t assured because of a pending investigation against him. Philadelphia District Attorney R. Seth Williams is considering whether to charge the four-time Pro Bowler for his alleged role in a nightclub brawl with off-duty police officers on Feb. 7. Even if Williams opts against charges and McCoy gets off scot-free from a legal standpoint, that doesn’t mean he’ll dodge a suspension from the league.
Before McCoy found himself in trouble, the biggest stories of the Bills’ young offseason centered on their front office and coaching staff. Shortly after the Bills’ season ended, general manager Doug Whaley got a contract extension through 2019 – the same year Ryan’s deal expires.
Ryan, meanwhile, hired his brother Rob Ryan in a prominent role: assistant head coach/defense. Rob Ryan was previously the defensive coordinator for the Saints, who fired him last November after he oversaw a unit that was allowing 424.7 yards per game at the time of his dismissal. Had the Saints kept up that pace, it would’ve been the second-worst all-time total for a full season. Nevertheless, Rex Ryan called his brother “a great football coach” earlier this month, and the two of them will team with Thurman as they attempt to turn around an underachieving defense next season.
Key Free Agents:
The Bills aren’t loaded with free agents who are primed to land major paydays in the coming weeks, but their top two unsigned players – left tackle Cordy Glenn and left guard Richie Incognito – were among the league’s premier offensive linemen last season. Glenn and Incognito comprised one of the best tackle-guard duos in the league, with both starting all 16 games and thriving in the process. Glenn was Pro Football Focus’ 10th-ranked tackle last season (subscription required), while Incognito placed second overall among guards.
Given that Glenn’s much younger than Incognito (26 versus 32) and plays a position of higher priority, he’ll undoubtedly be the more expensive of the pair. Since the Bills used a second-round pick on Glenn in 2012, the former Georgia Bulldog has been a durable stalwart, appearing in 61 of a possible 64 games (all starts) and earning positive grades from PFF in each of his four seasons. Now, as one of the standouts in a market of pending free agent tackles that also features the likes of Russell Okung (Seahawks), Kelvin Beachum (Steelers) and Donald Penn (Raiders), Glenn is in position to collect an appreciable raise.
Glenn wouldn’t be out of his depth to push for a deal in the neighborhood of the one the Colts’ Anthony Castonzo netted last summer. At the time, Castonzo was similar to Glenn as a four-year veteran with 60-plus starts who was entering his age-27 season. Castonzo got $43.6MM ($18MM guaranteed) over four years, and now ranks 10th among left tackles in maximum value, fourth in annual worth ($10.95MM) and 11th in guarantees. The Colts still had control over Castonzo at the time, though, whereas Glenn is potentially weeks away from having teams engage in a bidding war for his services. Thus, Glenn has a strong opportunity to surpass Castonzo’s contract.
If the Bills and Glenn aren’t able to find common ground on an accord sometime this month, the club will have the option of placing the franchise tag on him by the March 1 deadline to prevent him from hitting the open market March 9. PFR’s Luke Adams identified Glenn as a viable candidate for the tag last week. If the Bills go that route, it’ll cost them just under $14MM next season. Locking up Glenn long term after tagging him would enable the Bills to lower that number, of course.
The Bills bought low on Incognito last season, inking him to a deal that included less than $1MM in base salary, after he missed most of 2013 and all of 2014 because of his role in a bullying scandal with the Dolphins. Considering his performance last season, the Bills won’t be nearly that lucky this year. However, Incognito will stay a Bill if he has his druthers.
“My goal is to come back and play in Buffalo. I love it there,” he said in January.
There’s obviously mutual admiration between Incognito and the Bills. Whaley opined in December that Incognito deserved to be in the running for Comeback Player of the Year – an award that ended up going the Chiefs’ Eric Berry (rightly so) – and stated last month that keeping both Incognito and Glenn would be “a major point of emphasis” (Twitter link via Joe Buscgalia of WKBW). The two sides remain without an agreement, though, and Incognito certainly isn’t in the running for the franchise tag. That means the Bills can either re-up him within the next couple weeks or risk watching him head elsewhere when free agency opens.
On paper, Incognito shouldn’t be that tough to re-sign. His age and past off-field issues don’t exactly make him ripe for a lengthy contract, and a fair dollar amount would put him in the range of $3MM to $4MM per year. Only nine left guards presently average more than $4MM annually. The majority of those players are still in their 20s. Those who aren’t signed their deals before they turned 30.
Linebacker Nigel Bradham is the Bills’ only other full-time starter who is scheduled for free agency. He didn’t come close to making the impact Glenn and Incognito did last season, however, as Bradham joined many of his cohorts in going backward under Ryan and Thurman. Despite that, the Bills and Bradham want to extend their four-year relationship, according to Tyler Dunne of The Buffalo News. Dunne reported Friday (via Twitter) that Bradham is willing to take a “prove-it” contract to remain in Buffalo. If the 26-year-old is truly open to that, it would make sense for the Bills to bring him back, have one fewer immediate need to address this offseason, and hope he adapts better to their defense in 2016.
Similarly, the Bills would do well to retain receiver Percy Harvin on a low-risk deal. They can’t count on him to fill a significant role, though, given his career-long injury issues. Harvin was a competent piece of the Bills’ offense early last season, catching 19 passes on 30 targets over the first five weeks, but the former Viking, Seahawk and Jet missed the remainder of the campaign with hip and knee ailments. Whaley revealed last month that the Bills hope to re-sign the 27-year-old.
The Bills have three restricted free agent agents who racked up sizable playing time last season in defensive lineman Corbin Bryant, safety Bacarri Rambo and receiver Chris Hogan. The trio combined for 22 starts (10 for Bryant, eight for Rambo, four for Hogan) and accrued well over 600 snaps apiece.
Buffalo is expected to tender a one-year offer to Bryant, per Dunne (Twitter link). All has been quiet on the Rambo and Hogan fronts thus far, meanwhile, but both are candidates to receive tenders. Rambo led Bills defenders with three forced fumbles last season. Hogan was fourth on the Bills in catches (36), aerial yards (450) and receiving touchdowns (two). He also played 39 percent of their special teams snaps.
Possible Cap Casualties:
Thanks to a combination of his subpar output last season and his exorbitant cap number ($19.9MM), defensive end Mario Williams faces long odds of ever putting on a Bills uniform again.
Williams was a nonentity under Ryan and Thurman – his sack total plummeted from 14.5 to five, and he was largely invisible otherwise – and the 31-year-old was unafraid to voice his disenchantment with their scheme throughout the season. Going forward, the 10-year veteran is scheduled to easily pace the Bills in 2016 cap hit, but they’ll recoup most of that ($12.9MM, to be exact) if they release him. Williams, who signed with the Bills for $96MM in 2012, has missed only one game over the last four seasons and piled up 43 sacks.
The Bills might also move on from defensive back Leodis McKelvin, which would save them $3.9MM. It’s worth mentioning that the longtime cornerback told Dunne in December that he’d be open to shifting to safety and coming back at a lesser cap charge than his current $4.9MM. Those actions could help McKelvin return to Western New York for a ninth season.
Buffalo would save healthy amounts by cutting defensive lineman Kyle Williams ($5MM), safety Corey Graham ($3.38MM) and kicker Dan Carpenter ($1.76MM). That’s an improbable outcome in the cases of Williams and Graham, however, as both are starters and valuable contributors.
Carpenter disappointed last season after establishing himself as a high-end kicker in previous years. The 30-year-old was 18th out of 32 qualifiers in field goal accuracy (85.2 percent) and 31st in extra point success rate (85 percent). He also doesn’t handle kickoffs, forcing the Bills to use a roster spot on specialist Jordan Gay. With all of that considered, Carpenter’s hold on a roster spot looks tenuous.
The departures of backup offensive lineman Kraig Urbik ($1.78MM) and reserve running back Anthony Dixon ($1.15MM) look like good bets. Receiver Marquise Goodwin ($710K) and safety Duke Williams ($675K) aren’t safe either. Defensive end Jarius Wynn, who missed all of last season with a knee injury, could also be on the outs. Pink slipping him would net the Bills an extra $1MM.
Positions Of Need:
Should either or both of the Cordy Glenn–Richie Incognito duo walk, the Bills will be tasked with replacing at least one of their top two offensive linemen. As mentioned earlier, Russell Okung, Kelvin Beachum, and Donald Penn join Glenn as the cream-of-the-crop unsigned left tackles.
If the Bills are unable to meet Glenn’s demands, it’s hard to envision them ponying up for Okung, who is seeking a large payday despite durability concerns. The six-year veteran has missed 25 of a possible 96 contests and has never played a 16-game regular season. Moreover, he’s currently on the mend from recent shoulder surgery.
Beachum also hasn’t been the picture of health – the 26-year-old tore his ACL last season and missed 10 games. But, as Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com wrote last week, the highly talented Steelers tackle will have no shortage of suitors on the open market.
Penn, on the other hand, has been the quintessence of dependability, having missed zero games in his nine-year career. He has also started 16 games in eight straight seasons. Both Penn’s reliability and performance (he was PFF’s No. 11 tackle last season, one spot behind Glenn) are likely to lead him to a raise over the $4.8MM per year he made on his prior deal. Penn’s age (33 in April) should prevent him from finding anything long term, though.
Given how he fared last season and the fact that he won’t require a lengthy commitment, it’ll be puzzling if the Bills part with Incognito. Pending free agents like Kelechi Osemele (Ravens), Jeff Allen (Chiefs), Alex Boone (49ers) and Brandon Brooks (Texans) are all younger than Incognito and will get longer contracts as a result, but none are clearly superior players to Incognito at this juncture. Boone does have a notable connection to the Bills’ coaching staff – he played four years in Roman’s offense with the 49ers from 2011-14.
Evan Mathis (Broncos), Ramon Foster (Steelers) and Chris Chester (Falcons), like Incognito, are 30-somethings who are capable short-term Band-Aids. Interestingly, Whaley was a member of Pittsburgh’s front office when the club drafted Foster in 2009. Foster, who has since started 87 games, ranked as PFF’s 16th-best guard last season.
Unfortunately for the Bills, they also have issues on the right side of their O-line. Tackle Seantrel Henderson has started all 26 of his appearances since the Bills took him in the seventh round of the 2014 draft, but he hasn’t made enough progress to automatically keep his job for a third season. If the Bills venture into free agency for someone better, Joe Barksdale – who has made 45 starts over the last three years – jumps out as an enticing option who shouldn’t cost a bank-breaking amount. The ex-Ram took a one-year, low-money deal in San Diego last offseason and proceeded to play the second-most snaps in the league among tackles (1,150). His play earned him a No. 21 overall ranking among 77 qualifying OTs from PFF.
In the event the Bills address their O-line early in the draft, tackles Jack Conklin (Michigan State), Taylor Decker (Ohio State) and Jerald Hawkins (LSU) are possibilities at No. 19. Kansas State guard Cody Whitehair could also draw their interest.
Elsewhere on offense, the Bills aren’t sure what they have at quarterback, the sport’s paramount position. After spending the first four years of his career as a backup in Baltimore, Tyrod Taylor signed on the cheap with the Bills last winter in hopes of winning their starting job. Taylor did just that over the summer, beating out two career mediocrities in Matt Cassel and EJ Manuel, and then played better than anyone could have realistically expected during the season. As a passer, Taylor completed 63.7 percent of his throws, finished fifth in yards per attempt (7.99), seventh in rating (99.4) and added 20 touchdowns against just six interceptions. He complemented his solid passing skills with world-class mobility, chipping in 568 rushing yards (second to Cam Newton among QBs) and four more TDs.
While it was a successful year for Taylor, the Bills may not be sold on him as a franchise guy quite yet. They won’t find anyone better on the free agent market, but both Whaley and Ryan have left the door ajar with respect to drafting a QB this year. The Bills were one of the teams that showed the most interest throughout last season in North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz, whom they scouted extensively, NDSU quarterbacks coach Randy Hedberg told Dunne. Wentz probably won’t be available when the Bills are on the clock at No. 19, but Whaley hasn’t been shy about trading up in the past and could do it again if Wentz is still on the board within a few selections of Buffalo.
The Bills are also fans of Stanford’s Kevin Hogan, according to Tony Pauline of DraftInsider.Net. Hogan is a likely mid-round pick, so it’s doubtful he’d be a threat to Taylor next season even if the Bills drafted him. It’s possible Hogan would be able to push Manuel off the roster and serve as the No. 2 behind Taylor, though Whaley and Ryan both like Manuel. Further, releasing the former first-rounder would save the Bills nothing and leave them with nearly $2.83MM in dead money in 2016.
Regardless of who’s under center for the Bills next season, the organization seems intent on giving him more to work with at receiver. With Whaley suggesting last month that Robert Woods is losing his grip on the No. 2 spot, the Bills don’t have anyone of much consequence behind Sammy Watkins. Not surprisingly, then, they’ll “seriously look into” drafting a wideout, according to Whaley (Twitter link via Buscaglia).
Player personnel director Jim Monos expressed further dissatisfaction with the team’s receiving corps, Watkins excluded, telling WGR 550, “We need to get somebody opposite of Sammy to be a real threat to that defense. I think that’s a big key for our offense, to take one more step.”
If the Bills are bold enough to draft another first-round receiver – keep in mind that, because they traded up for Watkins in 2014, they essentially used two No. 1s on him – a few names to watch include Laquon Treadwell of Ole Miss and the Ohio State tandem of Michael Thomas and Braxton Miller.
In free agency, it’s unrealistic to think Buffalo will reel in a big fish like Marvin Jones, who’s reportedly seeking $7MM annually, or fellow Bengal Mohamed Sanu (he could get $5MM per year). Not many would classify Seahawks free agent-to-be Jermaine Kearse as a “real threat,” to use Monos’ phrase, though the 26-year-old could pique the Bills’ interest if the cost is reasonable. Earlier this winter, Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap forecast a deal worth $3.25MM to $3.75MM per year for Kearse (Twitter link). The 6-foot-1, 209-pounder only caught two more balls than Woods last season, but he did it on 13 fewer targets, averaged 14.0 yards per reception to Woods’ 11.7 and added five TDs to Woods’ three.
The Bills entered last offseason in the catbird seat defensively, which isn’t the case 12 months later. The team’s front seven still features an enviable trio of linemen in Marcell Dareus, Jerry Hughes and Kyle Williams, but imposing pass rushers are lacking aside from Hughes and the linebacking corps leaves much to be desired.
Bradham and Preston Brown markedly dropped off from 2014, leaving 10-year veteran Manny Lawson as the Bills’ top linebacker last season. Lawson will once again be a relied-on member of the Bills’ defense in 2016, and the same is probably true in regards to Brown. The Bills will need aid at linebacker from outside the organization, though, and if they go shopping for it in free agency, the Jets’ Demario Davis is a clear fit.
Davis played the first three seasons of his career under Ryan, saying in 2014, “I wouldn’t want to play for any other head coach. He’s a great defensive mind.”
Ryan leaned heavily on Davis, who played 95 percent of the Jets’ defensive snaps in 2013 and 99 percent in 2014. Davis looked lost last season without Ryan, meaning he isn’t hitting the the market with the momentum of a strong contract year. That could be fortuitous timing for the Bills, who lack cap room, need linebackers, and must find players who can comprehend Ryan’s defense.
Ex-Jet Quinton Coples is another free agent linebacker whose best years came under Ryan. The 2012 first-rounder combined for 16.5 sacks in Ryan’s scheme during the first three years of his career and played 1,500-plus snaps at LB in their last two seasons together. Coples, like Davis, fell off last season in Ryan’s absence, so the Jets waived him in November. Two teams placed claims on the 25-year-old. One was the Dolphins, who ultimately got him. The other? Ryan’s Bills. The fact that the Bills lost out on Coples upset Ryan, per Mike Rodak of ESPN.com (Twitter link).
“I wanted him,” Ryan said.
Coples was a non-factor in Miami, which released him earlier this month. He’s now free to sign anywhere, and the Bills are ostensibly a more logical fit for him than any other team. As an edge-rushing linebacker with a knowledge of Ryan’s defense, Coples is an alluring buy-low possibility for cap-strapped Buffalo.
The Bills could also buy high at LB in the form of a first-round pick. In his latest mock draft, Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller has the club selecting Ohio State’s Darron Lee in the opening round. Depending on whether they’re still available, any of Notre Dame’s Jaylon Smith, Alabama’s Reggie Ragland and Georgia’s Leonard Floyd might be on the Bills’ radar. They could also address their D-line instead and choose from the likes of Robert Nkemdiche (Ole Miss), Sheldon Rankins (Louisville), A’Shawn Robinson (Alabama) and Emmanuel Ogbah (Oklahoma State), among others.
Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:
The Bills have decisions to make this offseason on both of their quarterbacks. One of those decisions, whether to exercise or decline EJ Manuel‘s fifth-year option for 2017, will be easy. They’ll decline it, which means Manuel could be entering his final year with the team that drafted him. Manuel, whom the Bills took 16th overall in 2013, has appeared in 22 games, logged 16 starts and tossed 19 TDs against 15 INTs. He has been relegated to the bench since early 2014 as the backup, first to Kyle Orton and now to Taylor.
Whether to take a shot at extending Tyrod Taylor or simply let him play out his contract year is a much more difficult call for the Bills’ front office. Taylor’s pedigree hardly screams “franchise QB” — he’s undersized (6-1, 205 pounds), didn’t have a lights-out college career as a passer, went in the sixth round, and has spent the vast majority of his pro tenure as a backup.
That doesn’t mean Taylor is incapable of serving as an adept starter for the long haul, but the Bills can’t afford to make another mistake under center by once again investing heavily in someone who isn’t the answer. They got into trouble a few years ago when they prematurely extended Ryan Fitzpatrick based on a small sample size of encouraging play, and that was wedged between two failed first-round picks (J.P. Losman and Manuel). With that in mind, they’re unlikely to place their hand on the hot stove again, so to speak.
Although it’ll cost the Bills more if they take a better-safe-than-sorry approach and Taylor builds on last season, that would be a good problem for a franchise that has been hopeless at QB since the mid-1990s.
While the Bills aren’t yet sure of what they have in Taylor, they should know by now that cornerback Stephon Gilmore is worth a mega-extension. The 2012 first-rounder is going into his final season under team control and is coming off a year in which he tied a career high with three interceptions, ranked as a top-10 corner by PFF’s standards, and formed a top-notch CB twosome with rookie Ronald Darby.
Gilmore is scheduled to rake in over $11MM in 2016, his fifth-year option season. If he were to ask for that long term, it would be a lofty request from a player who has missed 11 games over the last three years. Then again, the Eagles’ Byron Maxwell has one of the richest contracts in the league for a corner – fourth in total value ($63MM), fifth in yearly worth ($10.5MM) and third in guarantees ($25MM) – and he got it last winter despite appearing in just 47 games in four seasons. At the time, Maxwell was a 27-year-old who had played second fiddle to Richard Sherman in Seattle. Conversely, Gilmore – who will turn 26 in September – has been the alpha dog in pass defenses that have mostly stifled enemy QBs (three straight top-10 finishes in both yards per attempt against and passer rating allowed). Add all of that up, and Gilmore has a case for Maxwell money – especially with the cap having risen $12MM during the last year.
Overall Outlook:
The Bills have little cap room to work with and obvious problems to address on both sides of the ball, so Whaley will have to pull a magic trick of sorts in order to build a playoff-caliber roster this offseason. Best-case scenario for Buffalo: Whaley will somehow re-sign both Glenn and Incognito, hit home runs with value pickups in free agency, and add multiple draft prospects who pay immediate dividends.
Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.